Friday, September 5, 2008

Hurricanes Gustav and Hanna disrupt cruise plans in the Caribbean

Hurricanes Gustav and Hanna disrupt cruise plans in the Caribbean

If you plan to take a cruise anywhere in the Caribbean, Florida or the Gulf Coast this week, call your cruise line. Nearly all of them are changing itineraries, ports and departure dates. Expect major disruptions, not just because of Hurricane Gustav but also Hurricane Hanna right behind it.

Hanna, which raked the Turks and Caicos today and closed its airport, was upgraded from a storm to a hurricane this morning, and forecasters said it could head for the U.S. mainland.

So far, the weather is affecting nine ships at Carnival Cruises alone, as well as operations of Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean International. And of course, if your departure or arrival date or port is changed, you may need new flights. Many airlines have temporarily loosened change penalties, but you have to act soon to take advantage of them.

Among cruise updates posted on websites:

Carnival
: Carnival Ecstasy will depart Galveston, Texas, on Wednesday instead of today, and shorten its trip from five days to three days. Carnival Fantasy will depart Mobile, Ala., on Wednesday instead of today. Guests can cancel for full refunds or take the cruises and get partial refunds based on missed cruise days, Carnival says. These and seven other ships are changing itineraries on cruises already underway, with several canceling calls on the Bahamas.

Norwegian: The Norwegian Spirit, which departed New York on Sunday for a six-day cruise, will call on Bermuda instead of the Bahamas. The Norwegian Sky, departing Miami today, originally for the Bahamas, will instead call on Cozumel, Mexico, and Key West, Fla.

Royal Caribbean International: Sovereign of the Seas and Majesty of the Seas, both departing today from Florida ports, will skip Coco Cay, the line’s private resort in the Bahamas, and instead call only on Nassau and Key West, Fla, according to an update today. Mariner of the Seas and Liberty of the Seas, which departed over the weekend, are also making itinerary changes.

Disney Cruise Line: The company today said it has not made any changes to the upcoming Disney Wonder voyage, which is due to leave Port Canaveral, Fla., on a three-night cruise to Nassau and Castaway Cay, Disney private resort in the Bahamas.

How similar are Hurricanes Gustav and Katrina?

Here's a comparison of Hurricanes Gustav and Katrina:

LANDFALL

Gustav: Monday, Sept. 1, 2008, about 10:30 a.m. EDT, near Cocodrie, La., about 70 miles southwest of New Orleans.

Katrina: Monday, Aug. 29, 2005, about 7:10 a.m. EDT, near Buras, La., about 55 miles south of New Orleans.

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STRENGTH

Gustav: Reached Category 4, landfall as Category 2, winds near 110 mph.

Katrina: Reached Category 5, landfall as Category 3, winds near 125 mph.

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STORM SURGE

Gustav: Reports of 12 feet high in the Industrial Canal, east side of New Orleans.

Katrina: Estimated at 27 feet high in Hancock, Miss. (It was difficult to measure in New Orleans because buildings washed away, leaving no high water marks.)

___

STORM TRACK

Gustav: Tropical storm forms Aug. 25, 2008, in the Caribbean, crosses Haiti, Cuba.

Katrina: Tropical storm forms Aug. 24, 2005, over the Central Bahamas, strikes southern tip of Florida.

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LEFT BEHIND

Gustav: FEMA estimates 10,000 left in New Orleans.

Katrina: 30,000 people crowd Superdome, convention center. Others plucked from homes, rooftops.

Sources: National Hurricane Center, FEMA


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MARITIME NOTES

New Orleans – update

The US Coast Guard issued a Marine Safety Bulletin (MSB) stating that Captain of the Port Zone New Orleans remains at Port Condition ZULU. However, the Lower Mississippi River is open to shallow draft traffic (less than 12 feet draft) from Mile Marker 303 to Mile Marker 88 (in the vicinity of Algiers Lock). A second MSB states that a safety zone has been established in the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal to protect mariners from hazards associated with salvage operations. Entry into the IHNC is prohibited. A third MSB states that Port Condition ZULU has been lifted for all vessel traffic regardless of draft for the Lower Mississippi River from Mile Marker 20 Below Head of Passes to Mile Marker 303 Above Head of Passes. Vessels transiting from the Southwest Pass sea buoy to Mile Marker 20 Below Head of Passes are limited to a draft of 30 feet or less. (9/3/08).

Mobile & Pascagoula – update

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that the Port of Mobile is open to maritime traffic with a draft of 35 feet or less. The Port of Pascagoula is open to traffic with a draft of 12 feet or less. (9/3/08).

USCG – VTS Morgan City re-established

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that the vessel traffic service (VTS) at Morgan City, Louisiana has been re-established following passage of Hurricane Gustav. (9/3/08).

Florida – port conditions increased

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that port conditions for the Ports of Palm Beach and Fort Pierce have been increased to X-RAY due to the expected passage of Tropical Storm Hanna. (9/2/08).


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STAY SAFE!
RS

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Hurricane Hunter aircraft fly into the belly of the beast

Hurricane Hunter aircraft fly into the belly of the beast

As Hurricane Gustav strengthens into a monster, Hurricane Hunter aircraft fly round-the-clock into the thick of the storm and straight into the cauldron of its mysterious eye.

The (Fort Myers, Fla.) News-Press flew on the Hurricane Hunter Friday as Gustav developed from a youthful tropical storm into a mature, powerful hurricane with devastating potential to life and property.

During the Hurricane Hunter's flight we watched and spoke with the six-member crew, learned about their individual jobs, and rode in the cockpit with the pilots and navigator. Most of all, we broke through the roiling winds of the eye wall four times, to fly across its broad expanse and back out again.

The Hunter's wild and dangerous ride provides continuous, precise measurements of atmospheric conditions to the National Hurricane Center.

That allows the center, in turn, to more accurately predict the hurricane path and pinpoint specific areas that will have to issue mandatory evacuation orders. Increased accuracy saves unnecessary evacuation costs and the nerves of people who otherwise might have to leave their homes.

For most of the hunters, this is what they live for and are willing to die for. They have no parachutes, since it would be foolhardy to jump to safety amid hurricane winds. It's better to ditch the plane and rely on life vests, lifeboats and prayer to survive the high seas below.

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve, a one-of-a kind unit flying into tropical storms and hurricanes since 1944, operates the Hunter.

The reservists are part of the 403rd Wing based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss.

But Friday we flew from Homestead Air Reserve Base. When we began the flight at 11:15 a.m., Gustav's winds started off at 65 mph.

During the 10 1/2-hour flight, Gustav strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane at about 83 mph. Since we landed at 9:45 p.m. Friday, the storm has catapulted to a Category 4 hurricane at 150 mph.

Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

8:30 a.m.: Meet the boss

We get to Homestead well before our designated arrival time and have a chance to speak with Maj. Jeff Ragusa, the deployed mission commander in charge of all hurricane operations flying from Homestead.

Nobody flies at the top of a hurricane, Ragusa said. "They want to know what happens at the bottom of it. If (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) had its way, we'd fly four feet above the water."

Instead we're flying at 10,000 feet to find the maximum and most dangerous winds. The Hunter is a WC-130J aircraft, a newer model of the C-130, newly equipped with the Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer, dubbed SMURF. The technology allows the Hurricane Hunters to constantly measure surface winds directly below the aircraft and helps increase the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center's forecasts by 30%.

The storm's circulation is already counter-clockwise, but no well-formed eye is apparent yet, Ragusa said. The Hunter's target is the western tip of Jamaica. We have to fly over Cuba to get there, and the State Department has to secure overflight permission from the Cuban government to do it.

The plane will fly in an X or Alpha pattern, going 105 miles out from the outskirts of the storm to its center, then back out again, repeating the pattern for all four quadrants of the storm.

"Every ride is a bumpy ride," Ragusa said. "As you walk through the aircraft, always keep an eye out for something to grab onto."

"And just remember, air sickness is just part of flying," said Lt. Col. Tom Davis, spokesman for Homestead Air Reserve Base.

9:25 a.m.: The briefing

Ragusa introduces the six-member crew at his pre-flight. They are:

• Lt. Col. C. Floyd Plash, aircraft commander and pilot

• Capt. Nate Gasscock, a pilot

• Lt. Col Dan Jones, pilot

• Capt. Eileen Bundy, aerial reconnaissance weather officer

• Mike Anderson, navigator

• Sgt. Major Justin Jones, the dropsonde system operator

The dropsonde is the major measurement instrument the crew uses to send information directly to the National Hurricane Center, like air pressure, wind speed and other data. The instrument is a small cylindrical device with a parachute on the end.

Once released from bottom of the aircraft, it floats down 2,500 feet a minute and sends back radio data, Jones said.

11:05 a.m.: Takeoff

The plane is massive, with the ability to plow through winds at more than 370 mph. But the storm is bigger.

The inside of the Hunter is like a giant, stripped-down tin can.

Its wiring and insulated pipes can be seen in the ceiling. The seats are simply red canvas benches lining either side of the plane with a back of red webbing — something to hang onto.

All the cargo is tied down, including cardboard boxes full of the dropsondes. Sgt. Major Justin Jones pulls out five of them in preparation, large cardboard cylinders wrapped in foil and pink bubble wrap.

The plane vibrates in place with its brakes on, as the four propeller engines are revved. Then it lurches forward at full speed on the bumpy runway.

The claw-like propellers become a blur. The noise inside is a steady, high-pitched hum. Davis distributes ear plugs.

The black nose cone lifts into the air.

Like a flight attendant, Jones signals the location of air sickness bags in little brown envelopes. He pulls one out and demonstrates the procedure.

The bathroom is at the back of the plane behind a green curtain.

1:25 p.m.: The flight

The Hurricane Hunter flies for about two hours, straight across the olive-green landscape of Cuba. The plane cuts between the cities of Cabaiguan and Moron, just skirting the city of Ciego De Avila.

As we come off the coast and head for Jamaica, just off Montego Bay, the turbulence starts. The massive WC-130J is buffeted like a toy, and the drops in altitude are sudden — about 200 feet at a time.

Jones ejects the dropsondes from the plane about every five minutes. Each one is tracked by a satellite frequency, its progress displayed by a colored graph on his computer monitor.

He said they cost $700 each, but the cost is worth the data they provide and the lives they save.

The hunter gets six different views of radar from cameras providing different angles. Another screen displays what all four engines are doing, from horsepower to oil pressure.

Above the emergency exit to the right of Jones' computer console is a sign that reads: "Ground and ditching use only."

The eye

The plane shakes and begins to go from side to side. We must be penetrating the eye wall for the first time, the roughest point of the trip.

Davis calmly munches on crackers from a plastic sandwich bag, then kicks back and closes his eyes for a few minutes.

The hurricane eye almost defies description by the human eye.

The eye may be the center of a deadly force of destruction, but witnessing its scope and majesty inspires awe. The massive ring of clouds forms the banks of a wide, empty lake of nothingness, save for a few scudding clouds.

Other images flood the mind: A white-coiled snake ready to strike. The crater of a volcano with puffs of cloud floating like steam. You can see through them below to the boiling blue lava of a stormy sea.

The eye changed each time we flew through it. At first its curve remained raggedy and incomplete. Then it formed into a rough circle about 25 miles across. By the forth and final pass-through, it became more defined — a smaller, tighter circle.

"Is that the eye wall? It had an inner spiral the last time. This could be the same thing," said Lt. Col. C. Floyd Plash, the mission commander, as the Hunter made the final pass-through at 7 p.m.

"Yeah, that's it," said Capt. Nate Gasscock, the pilot sitting beside him.

The job done —until their next shift 18 hours later, we flew home.

As the storm strengthens, the crews' shifts will shorten to six hours, then three hours round-the-clock instead of the standard 8-10 hours, said Lt. Col. Dan Jones, a pilot.

Why fly?

The crewmembers have different reasons for being here. They include patriotism, fulfilling a long-held dream, trying to conquer a childhood fear of severe weather or simply working near the place where their families live.

"Growing up, I was one of those kids who was afraid of weather," said Capt. Eileen Bundy, aerial reconnaissance weather officer.

So she went into meteorology and ended up flying into hurricanes, "making my mom real happy," she joked.

"It's getting pretty personal to me," Gasscock said. His wife as well as other families of crewmembers who live near the base in Biloxi will have to evacuate while they continue to fly.

But Gasscock knows the work is important to keep their families as well as hundreds of thousands of other residents safe.

When asked his motivation for being a Hurricane Hunter, Gasscock pointed to his jumpsuit sleeve where an American flag patch was sewn on. "Right there," he said.

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Ike strengthens into major hurricane
Thu Sep 4, 2008 1:38am BST

By Joseph Guyler Delva

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Hurricane Ike strengthened rapidly into a major Category 3 hurricane in the open Atlantic on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Hanna intensified to a lesser degree as it swirled over the Bahamas toward the southeast U.S. Coast.

Hanna's torrential rains had already submerged parts of Haiti, stranding residents on rooftops and prompting President Rene Preval to warn of an "extraordinary catastrophe" to rival a storm that killed more than 3,000 people in the flood-prone Caribbean country four years ago.

Hanna was forecast to move over the central and northern Bahamas on Thursday, strengthening back into a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph) before hitting the U.S. coast near the North Carolina-Virginia border on Saturday.

Ike posed no immediate threat to land but strengthened explosively, growing in the space of a few hours from a tropical storm to a "major" Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Ike had top sustained winds of 115 mph (185 kph) as it swept across the open Atlantic 645 miles (1,035 km) east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. National Hurricane Centre said.

It was forecast to strengthen further as it moved toward the southern Bahamas early next week but it was too early to tell whether it would threaten land, the forecasters said.

Tropical Storm Josephine also marched across the Atlantic on a westward course behind Ike but it had begun to weaken.

The burst of storm activity follows Hurricane Gustav, which slammed into Louisiana near New Orleans on Monday after a course that also took it through Haiti, where it killed more than 75 people.

The storms were troubling news for U.S. oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico and for the millions of people living in the Caribbean and on America's coasts.

The U.S. government has forecast 14 to 18 tropical storms will form during the six-month season that began on June 1, more than the historical average of 10. Josephine was already the 10th of the year, forming before the statistical peak of the season on September 10.

The record-busting 2005 season, which included deadly Hurricane Katrina, had 28 storms.

'REALLY CATASTROPHIC'

In Haiti, officials were still counting the scores of people killed by Gustav when Hanna struck the impoverished nation on Monday night.

Authorities said Hanna caused flooding and mudslides that killed at least 61 people across Haiti, including 22 in the low-lying port of Gonaives. The death toll was expected to rise as floodwaters receded and rescuers reached remote areas.

"We are in a really catastrophic situation," said Preval, who planned to hold emergency talks with representatives of international donor countries to appeal for aid.

"It is believed that compared to Jeanne, Hanna could cause even more damage," he said, referring to a storm that sent floodwaters and mud cascading into Gonaives and other parts of Haiti's north and northwest in September 2004, killing more than 3,000 people.

Gonaives residents were still stranded on their rooftops two days after the floodwaters rose and the government did not know the fate of those who had been in hospitals and prisons.

"There are a lot of people on rooftops and there are prisoners that we cannot guard," Preval said.

Hanna had hovered off Haiti's coast since Monday, drowning crops in a desperately poor nation already struggling with food shortages. It also triggered widespread flooding in the neighbouring Dominican Republic.

The Miami-based hurricane centre said Hanna had begun moving northward and its top winds strengthened slightly to 65 mph (105 kph). It was forecast to turn northwest across the central and northern Bahamas in the next two days and then hit the U.S. coast in North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday.

It was too early to say where Ike might go, after it churns through the Caribbean, but the storm has drawn the attention of energy companies running the 4,000 offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico that provide the United States with a quarter of its crude oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.

By late Wednesday, Josephine was swirling over the far eastern Atlantic about 375 miles (605 km) west of the Cape Verde Islands. It was moving west but had begun to weaken, with top sustained winds dropping to 60 mph (95 kph).

LATEST IMAGES ON IKE

Enhanced Infrared Satellite Image of Hurricane Ike:

Hurricane Ike Satellite

Infrared Satellite Image of Hurricane Ike
:
Hurricane Ike Infrared Satellite

Visible Satellite Image of Hurricane Ike
:
Hurricane Ike Visible Satellite

Water Vapor Satellite Image of Hurricane Ike:
Hurricane Ike Water Vapor Satellite

Shortwave Satellite Image of Hurricane Ike
:
Hurricane Ike Shortwave Satellite

Dvorak Satellite Image of Hurricane Ike
:
Hurricane Ike Dvorak Satellite


RS

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

How do you like your skies ... Natural or man-made?

How do you like your skies ... Natural or man-made?

We believe that no one, no government agency or private corporation, has the right to pollute our air or drinking water supplies, modify our weather, or impact the living environment around us – including the upper atmosphere.. Read more

NASA: Persistent jet contrails cause climate change

NASA noted in an October 2005 newsletter, that increasingly persistent jet contrails may turn into man-made clouds that are "trapping warmth in the atmosphere and exacerbating global warming".

NASA, based on its research and studies, goes on to state, "Any change in global cloud cover may contribute to long-term changes in Earth's climate.

Contrails, especially persistent contrails, represent a human-caused increase in the Earth's cloudiness, and are likely to be affecting climate and ultimately our natural resources." Related NASA news release | Contrails and Cirrus Clouds - NASA Langley Research (PDF document) | NASA Pathfinder Contrail Studies

CLOUDS CAUSED BY AIRCRAFT EXHAUST MAY WARM THE U.S. CLIMATE

NASA scientists have found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the United States that occurred between 1975 and 1994.

"This result shows the increased cirrus coverage, attributable to air traffic, could account for nearly all of the warming observed over the United States for nearly 20 years starting in 1975, but it is important to acknowledge contrails would add to and not replace any greenhouse gas effect," said Patrick Minnis, senior research scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va. The study was published April 15 in the Journal of Climate. "During the same period, warming occurred in many other areas where cirrus coverage decreased or remained steady," he added.

"This study demonstrates that human activity has a visible and significant impact on cloud cover and, therefore, on climate. It indicates that contrails should be included in climate change scenarios," Minnis said.

West coast contrails

Minnis determined the observed one percent per decade increase in cirrus cloud cover over the United States is likely due to air traffic-induced contrails. Using published results from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (New York) general circulation model, Minnis and his colleagues estimated contrails and their resulting cirrus clouds would increase surface and lower atmospheric temperatures by 0.36 to 0.54 degrees Fahrenheit per decade. Weather service data reveal surface and lower atmospheric temperatures across North America rose by almost 0.5 degree Fahrenheit per decade between 1975 and 1994.

Minnis worked with colleagues Kirk Ayers, Rabi Palinkonda, and Dung Phan from Analytical Services and Materials, Inc., of Hampton, Va. They used 25 years of global surface observations of cirrus clouds, temperature and humidity records from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. They confirmed the cirrus trends with 13 years of satellite data from NASA's International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project.

Both air traffic and cirrus coverage increased during the period of warming despite no changes in the NCEP humidity at jet cruise altitudes over the United States. By contrast, humidity at flight altitudes decreased over other land areas, such as Asia, and was accompanied by less cirrus coverage, except over Western Europe, where air traffic is very heavy.

Cirrus coverage also rose in the North Pacific and North Atlantic flight corridors. The trends in cirrus cover and warming over the United States were greatest during winter and spring, the same seasons when contrails are most frequent. These results, along with findings from earlier studies, led to the conclusion that contrails caused the increase in cirrus clouds.

"This study indicates that contrails already have substantial regional effects where air traffic is heavy, such as over the United States. As air travel continues growing in other areas, the impact could become globally significant," Minnis said.

Humidity is the amount of water vapor in the air and determines how long contrails remain in the atmosphere. Contrails that persist for an extended period of time are most likely to impact the climate.

East coast contrails

Contrails form high in the atmosphere when the mixture of water vapor in the aircraft exhaust and the air condenses and freezes. Persisting contrails can spread into extensive cirrus clouds that tend to warm the Earth, because they reflect less sunlight than the amount of heat they trap. The balance between Earth's incoming sunlight and outgoing heat drives climate change.

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise funded this research. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system and applying Earth System Science to improve prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards using the unique vantage point of space.

Next up: Hannah and Ike

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A busy Atlantic hurricane season moved into top gear yesterday when Hurricane Hanna developed near the Bahamas just as Gustav's winds lashed New Orleans and the newly formed ninth storm of the year looked set to eventually threaten the U.S. or the Caribbean.

The flurry of storms was the latest evidence that predictions for a busier than normal season were on the mark, and was worrisome news for U.S. oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico, millions living in the Caribbean and on U.S. coasts, and farmers fearing flooded fields.

goes east infra red hurricane sector image

Hurricane Hanna was intensifying near Mayaguana Island in the southeastern Bahamas, the U.S. National Hurricane Centre said.

Hanna, which had meandered for days, bewildering hurricane forecasters, was expected to churn northwest through the Bahamas before striking the U.S. east coast between north Florida and the Carolinas.

In addition to Hanna - and eventually posing perhaps a bigger menace - Tropical Storm Ike formed yesterday midway between Africa and the Caribbean and was expected to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane.

Mayaguana, the most southeasterly of the Bahama islands, has a population of about 1,000 people.

The nearby Turks and Caicos Islands were also hit by heavy rain and strong winds as Hanna gathered pace.

Approach of Hurricane Gustav



RS


Tuesday, September 2, 2008

NOAA Installs New Storm Tide Stations in the Gulf of Mexico

NOAA Installs New Storm Tide Stations in the Gulf of Mexico

August 22, 2008

Today in Bay St. Louis, Miss., NOAA dedicated the first of four new hurricane-hardened water level observing stations being installed at key locations in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana.

The yellow, 25-foot-tall “NOAA Sentinel” will provide real-time water level and meteorological data to help coastal authorities and the public prepare for, mitigate, and respond to storm tides generated by severe coastal storms. NOAA Sentinels are also being installed in Calcasieu Pass, Amerada Pass, and Shell Beach, La., communities that are especially vulnerable to severe storms.

“NOAA is committed to providing the public accurate, real-time ocean and coastal water and weather data to support public safety, navigation and commerce,” said John H. Dunnigan, NOAA assistant administrator for the National Ocean Service. “These new NOAA Sentinels will ensure that critical water and wind information is available during severe storms, when it’s needed most.”

Operated by NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, the NOAA Sentinels are designed to withstand wind and wave action from a Category 4 hurricane (winds from 131 to 155 miles per hour). The sensor-packed stations are mounted on four-foot diameter steel posts, which are driven 60-80 feet into the seafloor to ensure stability.

The data collected by the NOAA Sentinels are essential to providing accurate marine weather and flood forecasts, planning and executing evacuations, determining when to open and close locks, facilitating the reopening of ports after storms, and determining the vulnerability of coastal areas to storm surges. Installation of the stations will be completed by fall 2008.

"This technology will deliver real-time storm tide data during severe coastal events that will allow emergency managers to take appropriate action and will provide information to help protect life and property,” said Sen Thad Cochran. “I am pleased NOAA has worked to install these sentinels at locations off the coast of Mississippi and Louisiana."

Part of NOAA's National Water Level Observation Network, the NOAA Sentinels will replace stations that were destroyed or heavily damaged by recent hurricanes. Real-time data from all of NOAA’s National Water Level Observation Network stations are available online.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

HURRICANE HANNAH

Hurricane Hannah Threat The Bahamas And U.S. East Coast

According to the latest advisory from the National Weather Center, which is listed here as advisory number 19, but is constantly changing as the advisories are updated, Hannah has become the fourth storm of the season, at 75 mile an hour winds it makes Hannah a Category 1 as of this time and is has caused the Government of the Bahamas to issue a Hurricane warning for Central and Southeastern Bahamas.

Projections show that Hannah could continue along it's current path and make landfall potentially affecting Florida, Georgia and possibly North Carolina if it follows the projected path, which has the North Carolina Red Cross keeping some of their supplies close to home in case they are needed to combat the potential hit from Hannah.

The U.S. Coast Guard units are prepared to send more ships, aircrafts, medical teams, disaster assistance teams to areas affected and some have already been sent to the Gulf Coast to help with the damage seen from Gustav which is a Category 2 as reported at Bradenton News.

The projected path of what is now a Hurricane Hanna is expected to hit the East Coast of Florida within 3 days unless the storm slows or loses strength after hitting land in the Bahamas, but even then it is expected to gain strength again once it goes over the warm waters again.

Hannah was not projected to become a Hurricane until Tuesday or Wednesday initially.

[Update] Television news is reporting Hannah is expected to make landfall by Thursday or Friday if it continues at the present pace.

goes east infra red hurricane sector image

TROPICAL STORM IKE

Click image to zoom in – Turn track offDownload GIS data [Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


Storm Ike forms, seen growing into hurricane

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Ike, the ninth of a busy Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Monday midway between Africa and the Caribbean and was expected to grow rapidly into a hurricane that could threaten the United States or the Caribbean.

Ike was churning across the Atlantic on the heels of Hurricane Gustav, which pounded New Orleans on Monday as it came ashore on the U.S. Gulf Coast, and Hurricane Hanna, which strengthened as it neared the south-eastern Bahamas islands.

The peak of the six-month Atlantic hurricane season usually occurs around September 10, and an average season spawns 10 tropical storms. Six of those strengthen into hurricanes.

Ike's formation, and the possibility of another tropical depression developing in its wake in the coming days, means the storm activity this year is well above normal, bad news for U.S. oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and for the millions living in the Caribbean and on U.S. coasts.

By 5 p.m. (10 p.m. British time), Tropical Storm Ike was about 1,400 miles (2,250 km) east of the Leeward Islands and moving west at 16 miles per hour (26 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Centre said.

Its top sustained winds were already at 50 mph (85 kph) and it was expected to reach hurricane strength, with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph), within 36 hours, the hurricane Centre said.

Computer models used to forecast tropical storm tracks indicated Ike was likely to stick to a westerly path that would bring it just north of the island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The Miami-based hurricane Centre said Ike could be a "major" hurricane by then. Major hurricanes are those that rank at Category 3 and higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of storm intensity and are the most destructive.

Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 when it came ashore near New Orleans in 2005 and swamped the city, killing 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricane Gustav was also a Category 3 on Monday shortly before landfall but it weakened as it landed.

Long-range track and intensity forecasts are subject to enormous error but some models suggested Ike could eventually dip to the south-southwest, potentially threatening Haiti, Cuba or the Gulf of Mexico where the United States produces 25 percent of its oil and 15 percent of its natural gas.

GAO Report: Hurricane Katrina: Continuing Debris Removal and Disposal Issues

GAO has a new report out on debris management from Hurricane Katrina. The cover letter reads in part:

"...the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality (LDEQ) stated that while the Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimated in July 2008 that it had funded about 16,900 home demolitions, an estimated 6,100 homes remained to be demolished around the New Orleans area. Further, it is estimated that when the demolition and renovation of damaged property in the New Orleans area resulting from Hurricane Katrina are completed, more than 100 million cubic yards of disaster debris will have been generated.1 This is more than twice the amount of disaster-related debris generated in 1992 by Hurricane Andrew—the event that prior to Hurricane Katrina had resulted in the greatest recorded amount of disaster-related debris in U.S. history."

That is a bunch of debris! More details can be found in the GAO report, to include hazardous material issues.

RS

Monday, September 1, 2008

Gustav whipped up by deep waters of the Loop - and more hurricanes on the way

Gustav whipped up by deep waters of the Loop - and more hurricanes on the way

Hurricane Gustav is a monster that seemed to explode into life from a tropical storm on Friday afternoon to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 230km/h (125 mph) on Saturday morning. Everything has been perfect for its growth, especially the sea temperature.

The Gulf of Mexico is a notorious breeding ground for tropical storms that feed on a dangerous current of deep, warm water called the Loop.

This sweeps up between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, before looping past the tip of Florida, spinning off eddies of warm water. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita became mega-storms as they rode over the Loop, and these waters have been responsible for almost all the worst hurricanes in recent years.

The warm water is like rocket fuel for a hurricane, injecting huge amounts of energy that drive the storm into a fury. As the warm, wet air is sucked into the storm it cools and condenses into huge thunderclouds, unleashing a phenomenal amount of energy that powers the hurricane — an average-sized hurricane has the energy of some 10,000 nuclear warheads.

To make this bomb go off, the hurricane needs waters of at least 26C (79F) — and at the moment the waters of the Loop are around 29C (85F). Because the warm waters in the Loop run far deeper than most tropical seas, this gives hurricane a deep reservoir of warm water to feed off even as it churns up the sea with its winds.

Gustav has had a lucky ride in other respects. There is little dry air around to choke it off, and high-level winds, which might otherwise decapitate the storm, have been very calm. High pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere is also acting like a car exhaust, venting waste air from the top of the storm.

High pressure is also helping steer the storm towards Louisiana, and as Gustav charges across the sea its ferocious winds and low pressure are heaping up a vast bulge of water that will smash into the coastline as a storm surge — the phenomenon that led to the catastrophic floods of Katrina.

In so many ways, this is the perfect recipe for disaster. But forecasters had warned that this was going to be a bad hurricane season, with up to ten hurricanes expected. So far we have had only two, although this was an unusually active start to the season, and in August, Tropical Storm Kay set a new record by making four separate landfalls in Florida, each time blowing out to sea where it recharged before battering the coast again and causing disastrous floods.

Apart from Gustav, there are more problems on the way. Out in the Atlantic, Hanna is about to hit the Bahamas and then may push off to the north and strike eastern parts of the US. More storms are queuing up in the Atlantic’s “Hurricane Alley”, with two areas of concern that could turn into full-blown tropical storms later this week. With another three months of the official hurricane season left to run, this could be a very stormy period.

Whether global warming can be blamed for the surge in hurricanes in recent years is hotly debated. There is a natural cycle in hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean that goes round every 20 to 50 years, and we are in a very active phase of that cycle. But on top of that natural variability some scientists believe that warmer seas are fuelling more, or more powerful, hurricanes.

USA. Great Lakes Coast Guard units prepare to support Gulf Coast

Sunday, 31 August 2008

Ninth Coast Guard District resources are mobilizing and preparing, Sunday, for deployments to the Gulf Coast as Hurricane Gustav gains strength.

Great Lakes-based Coast Guard units, including some that participated in Hurricane Katrina response operations, are ready to deploy to the region as Gustav's path and strength are monitored.

U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Traverse City, Mich., will deploy an HH-65C Dolphin helicopter to Jacksonville, Fla., and Ninth District support staff members are scheduled to deploy to Mobile, Ala.

An additional Dolphin from Air Station Detroit and members of the Ninth District Incident Management Team stand-by and are ready to respond. The IMT is a group of Coast Guard members who specialize in the management of disaster assistance and emergency response.

The deploying units are prepared to work with Coast Guard units from around the nation, in addition to the numerous Federal, state, local and volunteer responders.

"Similar to Katrina, we are preparing for the worst," said Lt. David French, Ninth Coast Guard District External Affairs Officer. "Our Coast Guard responders remain 'Always Ready' to assist the American public.

"Our hearts and prayers are with the residents of the Gulf Coast and the multi-agency responders who are preparing to assist the region," French added.

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