Experts: Twisters Getting Larger, Deadlier

Experts: Twisters Getting Larger, Deadlier

No End in Sight for Tornado-Ravaged Nation

By ASHLEY PHILLIPS

May 12, 2008 —

As communities rebuild after deadly tornadoes bulldozed their way from Oklahoma to Georgia and North Carolina over the weekend, experts say that this tornado season is bigger and deadlier than last year's, with little relief in sight.

Seventy-seven tornadoes tore through the country the past few days, according to preliminary reports at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center. In Georgia, more than 180,000 people were left without power, while 15 fatalities were reported in Missouri.

This year's count is already twice the number of tornadoes logged during last year's U.S. tornado season, which generally runs from mid-spring to early summer.

"So far, in terms of the number of tornadoes, this is one of the most active years to date," said Harold Bloom, a meteorologist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla.

Tornadoes develop from large, powerful thunderstorms known as super cell thunderstorms.

"One super cell thunderstorm can move many miles and can produce several tornadoes, a family of tornadoes," said Henry Margusity, a meteorologist at Accuweather.

"These thunderstorms will produce one tornado. It will develop, mature and dissipate and another will fall right behind it. & You're getting a lot of these very large thunderstorms developing."

The larger thunderstorms are producing more families of tornadoes earlier than before and the tornadoes themselves are staying on the ground longer than ever before in regions outside of "tornado alley," Margusity said.

Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of Texas officially make up this area, although the southeastern United States experiences its fair share of tornadoes during the season.

With more tornadoes have come more deaths. So far, 96 people have died this year. Last year, the entire tornado season end with 81 fatalities.

"This year everything's been shifted to the east, & which is why we've seen a higher death toll," he said. "They're happening in very highly populated areas of our country."

"The damage that you see is just incredible," he added.

And some people are at greater risk than others.

"If people didn't live in mobile homes or if they had a more permanent shelter to get into you could cut the deaths in half," said Paul Markowski, a Penn State meteorologist and a veteran storm chaser.

Of the 81 people who died in tornadoes in 2007, 52 were killed in a mobile home, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration statistics. Markowski and other scientists suggest creating permanent underground shelters in areas like mobile home parks that are more vulnerable to tornado damage.

"That's what's frustrating as scientists. &The reality is for a lot less money than the millions spent on science research, for a much smaller investment, you could probably have a much bigger impact," he said.

Different meteorologists offer different possible reasons for the tornado increase, from the jet stream pattern to changing water temperatures.

"There are several things going on the atmosphere: a progressive pattern in jet stream. & There's also plenty of fuel for these storms in the form of a sharp temperature contrast in the United States," said Jay Searles, a meteorologist at Pennsylvania State University. "There's been record heat and record cold over the month of April and the first part of May. Last year & everyone got warm in the same time. The temperature difference wasn't as strong."

Those extremes may be attributable to La Nina, a cooling of the Pacific Ocean, that has happened in the past year, Searles said.

"It's a normal phase," he said. "There may be a connection."

There may also be a connection to a warming Gulf of Mexico, which in the winter had temperatures that were a bit warmer than normal, Penn State's Markowski said. "The warmer that the ocean is the more water evaporates to its surface," Markowski said. Moisture is a key ingredient of tornado development.

"Years when the Gulf of Mexico is really warm, we tend to have more tornadoes."

Despite this, Markowski stressed that there is no proven connection between global warming and tornado development.

"People have bent over backwards to try to come up with generalizations about tornado activity," he said. "That's one of the biggest areas of uncertainly in the climate change community. There's no doubt that the earth is warmer than it has been. There's extremely high confidence that humans have contributed to warming. & What that warming means and how it translates in tornadoes and hurricanes, especially tornadoes, we don't know." What meteorologists do know, however, is that for now, there's no end in sight.

Severe thunderstorms, like those that produced the weekend's tornadoes are expected in Texas, Mississippi, Illinois and Iowa, according to Joe Schaeffer, a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center. On Wednesday, NOAA is predicting severe storms over central Alabama.

Although several meteorologists said that the tumultuous storm season could continue even through the end of summer, accurately predicting the outcome of a tornado season is near impossible.

"Anything beyond day three is a flip of the quarter," Penn State meteorologist Searles said.

WEATHER NOTE

Tornado deaths underscore risks of taking shelter in cars
By ALAN SCHER ZAGIER – 15 hours ago

SENECA, Mo. (AP) — More than a third of the 22 people killed by a tornado that smashed parts of Oklahoma and Missouri over the weekend died in cars, troubling experts who say vehicles are one of the worst places to be during a twister.

"It's like taking a handful of Matchbox cars and rolling them across the kitchen floor," said Sgt. Dan Bracker of the Missouri State Highway Patrol, surveying the damage in and around Seneca, near the Oklahoma line, the hardest hit area. "This is devastating."

Among those killed were three people in Oklahoma who were rushing to reach a relative's house in their car; a woman whose car was blown off a road near Seneca; and four family members — Rick Rountree, his wife, his 13-year-old son, and his mother-in-law — who were in a van on the way to a friend's wedding when a twister packing winds of 170 mph struck the Seneca area on Saturday night.

"They were on the road when the warnings came," said Rountree's brother-in-law, Larry Bilke.

About 100 people have died in U.S. twisters so far this year, the worst toll in a decade, according to the National Weather Service, and the danger has not passed yet. Tornado season typically peaks in the spring and early summer, then again in the late fall.

This could also prove to be the busiest tornado season on record in the United States, though the final figure on the number of twisters is not yet in.

All together, at least 25 people died in Missouri, Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama after the severe storms erupted Saturday over the Southern Plains and swept east.

The death toll rose Monday when Tyler Casey, a 21-year-old firefighter in Seneca, died at a hospital. Officials said he got caught in the tornado while trying to warn people to seek shelter.

According to data from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, 49 of the 705 deaths — or about 7 percent — attributed to tornadoes from 1997 to 2007 were people who were in vehicles when the storm struck.

"They can cover more ground than you can in your car, so unless you know you are moving away from the tornado the best thing you can do is find a strong structure," said National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Foster.

The twister that struck Seneca and surrounding Newton County was moving at 50 mph to 60 mph, Foster said. One car was found a half-mile from the tornado track.

Authorities were still piecing together how some of the other victims died over the weekend. But the Missouri Highway Patrol said one person was killed when her vehicle was blown off the same road where the Rountree family died.

In Picher, Okla., 32 miles away, a man and a woman died when their car was blown into a lagoon. The body of another man from the car wound up in a tree nearby. A 13-year-old girl who was riding in the car was injured.

Fire Chief Jeff Reeves said they were not trying to outrun the twister.

"I think they were actually trying to get to a family member's house on the south side of town to help them and they just didn't make it over," Reeves said.

Another woman was critically injured after she took shelter in a broken-down car outside Susan Roberts' home in Seneca, authorities said. "That is what is tearing me up," Roberts said, adding she had warned the woman about the approaching tornado.

Val Castor, one of the many spotters who bring dramatic video of tornadoes to local TV stations in Oklahoma, said the number of people on the road during tornadoes seems to have increased every year since 1996, when the movie "Twister," which depicts meteorologists chasing tornadoes, came out.

He said driving during severe weather is extremely dangerous for the inexperienced because they don't know where a tornado will form or what direction it will go. Heavy traffic or a broken-down vehicle can prevent people from escaping the funnel cloud.

"Vehicles of any size really don't fare that well in a tornado. Vehicles can be thrown and tossed by the wind," said Rick Smith, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oklahoma.

As with mobile homes, the problem with cars is that they are not anchored to the ground, and the wind can easily get underneath them. Smith said winds of less than 100 mph can flip a car.

"That is probably the worst place that you can be when a tornado, or even some of the severe storms that we see in Oklahoma, happen," he said.

Smith said people should avoid driving when severe storms are forecast and seek shelter in a truck stop, restaurant or other permanent structure if caught on the road during a twister. As a last resort, Smith said, motorists should get out and find a low-lying area, such as a culvert or a ditch, where they can duck and cover.

Weather experts say overpasses should be avoided because the wind can become more powerful as it squeezes through.

"Paying attention to the weather and not being caught in that situation is really your best bet," Smith said.

The warnings against staying in cars were prompted by a tornado that struck Wichita Falls, Texas, in 1979. Of the 42 deaths, 25 were vehicle-related.

The U.S. death toll from tornadoes this year is the highest since 130 people were killed in 1998, according to the weather service. The highest number of tornado-related deaths came in 1953, when 519 people died.

To date this year, 858 tornadoes have been reported in the U.S., although that number probably includes numerous duplicate sightings of the same twister.

Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory said the highest number of tornadoes ever recorded through May 11 of any year was in 1999, when 676 tornadoes were counted. Brooks said he expects the number of confirmed tornadoes through mid-May of this year to end up in the 650-to-700 range.

Altogether, 16 people died in Missouri from the same storm that devastated Picher, where six were killed. Two more people were killed in Georgia, where forecasters said at least six tornadoes touched down. One of those twisters struck McIntosh County's emergency management center, destroying the fire trucks and ambulances inside. Another man was killed in Alabama when his truck was hit by a tree limb as he was surveying storm damage.

The Environmental Protection Agency said it would check for high lead levels in Picher after the tornado blew through the heavily polluted former mining town where lead-filled waste is piled into giant mounds.

Miles Tolbert, Oklahoma secretary of the environment, said he did not believe there was any immediate hazard to the 800 residents. But he said more testing was needed.

Monthly Tornado Statistics (Official Text or PDF version)

Number of Tornadoes								Number of Tornado Deaths					Killer Tornadoes
	2008		2007		2006	2005	3 Year Avg.	2008	2007	2006	2005	3 Year Avg.	2008	2007	2006	2005	3 Year Avg.
	Prelim	Actual	Prelim	Actual	Final	Final		Prelim	Final	Final	Final		Prelim	Final	Final	Final
JAN	136	84	29	21	47	33	34	7	2	1	4	2	4	1	1	2	1
FEB	232	?	87	52	12	10	25	58	22	0	0	7	13	3	0	0	1
MAR	151	?	214	171	150	62	128	4	27	11	1	13	3	10	7	1	6
APR	190	?	187	165	245	132	181	0	9	38	0	16	0	3	9	0	4
MAY	201	?	282	251	139	123	171	27	14	3	0	6	4	4	1	0	2
JUN	?	?	152	128	120	316	188	?	0	0	0	0	?	0	0	0	0
JUL	?	?	55	69	71	138	93	?	0	0	0	0	?	0	0	0	0
AUG	?	?	87	73	80	123	92	?	1	1	4	2	?	1	1	3	2
SEP	?	?	63	51	84	133	89	?	0	1	1	1	?	0	1	1	1
OCT	?	?	115	87	76	18	60	?	5	0	0	2	?	3	0	1	1
NOV	?	?	7	6	42	150	66	?	0	10	28	13	?	0	3	5	3
DEC	?	?	22	19	40	26	33	?	1	2	0	1	?	1	2	0	1
Total	910	84	1300	1093	1106	1264	1159	96	81	67	38	62	22	26	25	13	21

Tornadoes kill six in Picher, Oklahoma





BURMA UPDATE

Situation Update No. 44
On 2008-05-13 at 14:23:29 [UTC]

Event: Tropical Storm
Location: Myanmar (Burma) Southern area

Situation

Many cyclone victims are getting spoiled food from Myanmar's junta instead of the high-quality supplies being delivered by foreign governments and charities, victims and aid workers said Tuesday. A longtime foreign resident of Myanmar's biggest city, Yangon, told The Associated Press in Bangkok by telephone that angry government officials have complained to him about the military misappropriating aid. He said the officials told him that quantities of the high-energy biscuits rushed in on the World Food Program's first flights were sent to a military warehouse. They were exchanged by what the officials said were "tasteless and low-quality" biscuits produced by the Industry Ministry to be handed out to cyclone victims, the foreign resident said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because identifying himself could jeopardize his safety. He said it was not known if the high quality food was being sold on the black market or consumed by the military.

A government spokesman did not immediately respond to an e-mailed query from the AP seeking a comment. The allegations were impossible to confirm independently because of the massive restrictions imposed by the junta on journalists. The military - which has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1962 - has taken control of most aid sent by other countries including the United States, which made its first aid delivery Monday and sent in another cargo plane Tuesday with 19,900 pounds of blankets, water and mosquito netting. A third flight was to take in a 24,750-pound load. U.S. Marine Lt. Col. Douglas Powell said that the situation remained fluid, but that flights were expected to continue after Tuesday - which appears to broaden the original agreement for three flights on Monday and Tuesday. State television said the death toll had gone up by 2,335 to 34,273, and the number of missing stood at 27,838 after many of those listed as missing were accounted for.

The United Nations says the actual death toll could be between 62,000 and 100,000. State television said navy commander in chief Rear Adm. Soe Thein told Adm. Timothy J. Keating, commander of the U.S. Pacific Forces, that basic needs of the storm victims are being fulfilled and that "skillful humanitarian workers are not necessary." The U.N. said that the World Food Program is getting in 20 percent of the food needed because of bottlenecks, logistics problems and government-imposed restrictions. CARE Australia's country director in Myanmar, Brian Agland, said members of his local staff brought back some of the rotting rice that's being distributed in the devastated Irawaddy Delta. "I have a small sample in my pocket, and it's some of the poorest quality rice we've seen," he said. "It's affected by salt water and it's very old."

It's unclear whether the rice, which is dark gray in color and consists of very small grains, is coming from the government or from mills in the area or warehouses hit by the cyclone. "Certainly, we are concerned that (poor quality rice) is being distributed," Agland said by telephone from Yangon. "The level of nutrition is very low." Many survivors also said they were either not getting any aid or were being handed rotten, moldy rice.

Number of Deads: 100000 persons
Number of Injured persons: 1383 persons
Number of Missing persons: 42119 persons
Number of Evacuated persons: 1500000 persons

MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard Urges Mariners to Think Safety During Severe Weather

cgnews May 12th, 2008 Marine Safety

PORTSMOUTH, Va., - The Coast Guard urges mariners to exercise extreme caution when transiting coastal and inland waterways as severe weather passes through the mid-Atlantic region today.

A gale warning is currently in effect for the inland and coastal waters of Virginia and North Carolina with northeastern winds forecasted to reach 30-35 m.p.h.

The Coast Guard has saved or assisted 17 people since the severe weather system entered the mid-Atlantic region earlier this weekend.

To prepare for severe weather, the Coast Guard urges to always:

-Wear their life jackets on the water.
-Check their current and expected weather and water conditions before heading out.
-File a float plan with friends, family members and their local marina before heading out. The list should include the number of passengers onboard the vessel, their destination and expected time of return.
-Always have a working radio onboard their vessel as cell phone coverage varies from region to region.
-Carry marine flares onboard their vessels to signal rescuers in distress and emergency situations.
-Boat owners are encouraged to check their mooring lines to insure their vessels do not break free during the sever weather.

Mariners are reminded that drawbridges along the coast may deviate from normal operating procedures and are generally authorized to remain closed up to eight hours prior to the approach of gale force winds of 34 knots or greater.

The gale warning is in effect until tuesday.

For current and detailed weather information in your area, consult the National Oceanagraphic and Atmospheric Administration website. http://www.noaa.gov/

MARAD – National Maritime Day events

On May 22, the United States celebrates National Maritime Day. In Washington, DC, a Eucharistic liturgy will be celebrated at St. Joseph’s Roman Catholic Church; a seminar will be conducted at the Rayburn House Office Building on environmental issues; and an observance ceremony will be conducted at the Roosevelt Memorial. (5/11/08).

RS