By Jim Loney MIAMI (Reuters) - In the not-too-distant future, the U.S. government would like to be able to wake up residents in the middle of the night when a hurricane or tornado threatens, perhaps by sounding the alarm on a cellphone.
The birth of a twister or the sudden, overnight intensification of a hurricane while people are sleeping, are the nightmare scenarios facing storm forecasters as they lay plans to strengthen America's natural disaster defenses.
"I'm worried about waking you up," Mary Glackin, a Bush administration official responsible for the day-to-day operations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said on Tuesday. "I call that completing the forecast."
The U.S. government is ready to spend more money on tracking satellites, sea buoys and research on hurricanes, Glackin said as she briefed south Florida officials on the administration's proposed fiscal year 2009 budget.
The disastrous 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons sent shock waves through global energy, insurance and commodities markets. Four powerful hurricanes struck Florida in 2004, causing a combined $35 billion in damage.
In 2005 a record-breaking 28 tropical cyclones formed, including some of the most intense hurricanes on record. Katrina killed 1,500 people and caused $80 billion in damage when it swamped the U.S. Gulf coast, bursting the levees protecting New Orleans and flooding the famous jazz city.
One of the biggest threats from hurricanes is the explosive intensification of a cyclone close to shore after residents have gone to bed, shortening the time available to safely evacuate millions of people from the crowded Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts.
WAKE-UP CALL
Bill Read, the new director of the National Hurricane Center, said he would like to see a wake-up system, perhaps Internet-based and delivered by cellphone, within a decade.
"Look what can be delivered by cellphone now," Read said. "We ought to be there in 10 years."
In order to improve hurricane intensity forecasts, NOAA plans to deploy three new hurricane-monitoring buoys at sea this year, bringing to 15 the number in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Atlantic. They can measure wind speeds, wave heights, sea temperatures and other critical data.
Read said he hopes for a 3 percent yearly increase in the accuracy of intensity forecasts, the same as forecasters have been able to achieve in predicting hurricane tracks. The aim is to buy residents a little extra time to react to a storm.
"We're not going to solve the intensity problem if we don't do the research," he said.
The agency's budget for hurricane-hunter airplane flights into hurricanes is increasing, and it plans to equip a Gulfstream-IV jet with a new Doppler radar system, giving forecasters better data on a storm's wind field, Glackin said.
Researchers eventually hope to deploy unmanned aircraft like those used by the U.S. military in Iraq for hurricane research missions that are "dirty, dull or dangerous," she said. Such a drone was sent into Hurricane Noel last year.
The fiscal year 2009 budget, proposed by President George W. Bush and subject still to Congressional approval, would boost funding from $3 million to $6.3 million for the drones. Glackin said full deployment is "several years down the road."
The 2009 spending plan includes a huge $242 million increase for the GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) program, which is scheduled to put a new string of satellites into orbit starting in 2014.
A New Index For Forecasting Wet Microburst Severity
Abstract
A new index to assess the potential and severity of wet microbursts is currently under development. The index, designated as the Wet Microburst Severity Index (WMSI), accounts for the physical processes of convective storm development and downburst generation by incorporating such parameters as convective available potential energy (CAPE), to represent the process of updraft formation, and Theta-e Deficit (TeD), to represent downburst development. (Report)
Hundreds volunteer help after tornadoes
Students provide strength, comfort
Monday, February 11, 2008
CLINTON — Volunteers fanned out across storm-wrecked areas Sunday, trying to help residents restore order to the devastation left by two tornadoes that tore across Arkansas on Tuesday.
Some came in small, family groups, armed with chain saws and work gloves, wanting to help neighbors in need. Others came in large relief groups, from states as far away as New Hampshire and as close as Oklahoma.
Among the volunteers was a group of more than 800 students from Harding University in Searcy, who spent their Sunday in Clinton helping residents.
“This is what Christians do for each other,” said Marie Yates, a sophomore at Harding. “They are supposed to take care of each other. ... We wanted to do whatever we can to help.”
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
BY Arthur Rabjohn CEM
AUSTRALIA: Rescue helicopters winched 37 people from a sinking yacht off Australia's northeast coast on Tuesday after it was washed on to rocks and holed. Rough seas swept the twin-mast yacht named the Romance on to rocks off Hook Island on the southern tip of the Great Barrier Reef, rescue officials said. Emergency Management Queensland said it was too dangerous to rescue the 32 passengers and 5 crew using boats, so two helicopters were brought in to winch them to safety. A helicopter rescue crewman was lowered on to the yacht, lying at a 45-degree angle on rocks and being pounded by waves, and lashed tether lines from the boat to trees on shore. But the plan for some passengers to climb along the tether lines to shore was abandoned because of high waves and strong winds. "All passengers have now been flown to nearby Hayman Island and will be assessed by the onboard paramedic and doctor," Emergency Management Queensland said. (See story below)
BOLIVIA: Bolivia declares flood emergency Bolivian President Evo Morales has declared a national disaster as his government tries to cope with the aftermath of widespread flooding. Floods caused by weeks of rain have left 51 dead in the eastern lowlands. Mr Morales on Monday toured the worst-hit province, Beni, where thousands of people have had to leave their homes amid rising floodwaters. It is the second year in a row that Bolivia has seen such floods, which officials blame on climate change. The floods have left more than 40,000 people homeless, officials say.
MEXICO: Earthquake shakes southern Mexico Southern Mexico has been shaken by a 6.4 magnitude earthquake, causing power cuts and panic, but so far no reported injuries or damage. The US Geological Survey said the quake's epicentre was about 110km (70 miles) south-west from Tuxtla Gutierrez in the state of Chiapas.
TESSA STORM CONFERENCE
The Texas Severe Storms Association (TESSA), the National Weather Service (NWS), the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and National Weather Association (NWA) will collaborate for the 2008 National Storm Conference on March 8 in Colleyville, Texas. Experts will deliver presentations on tornadoes and other severe weather topics.
MARITIME NOTES:
YACHTS WRECKED, SHIP ADRIFT AS WILD WEATHER HITS
February 12, 2008 - 1:05PM
Two yachts have been wrecked, a train derailed, residents put on evacuation alert and a bulk carrier broke its moorings as wild weather returned to northern and central Queensland.
The 47,000 bulk coal carrier Devtrayag (Devtrayag) snapped its moorings in rough seas at the northern coal port of Dalrymple Bay at 4.20am (AEST) today.
The bulk carrier hit the wharf, ripping a 10 metre long gash in its side about five metres above the waterline and drifted until its anchors managed to pull it up.
"Efforts are being made to tow the vessel back to its berth at slack water (turn of the tide) around 1pm (AEST) today," a spokesman for Transport Minister John Mickel said.
The rough seas and strong winds also put a yacht, carrying 32 people, aground on rocks on the western side of Hook Island in the Whitsundays. ( Story )
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