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NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest

According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in half of the continental United States are at minor or moderate risk of exceeding flood levels this spring with the highest threat in the southern Great Lakes region due to above-average snowpack and a deep layer of frozen ground. Additionally, drought is expected to continue in California and the Southwest. 
 
The continuation of winter weather, above-average snowpack, frozen ground and thick ice coverage on streams and rivers will delay spring flooding into April in the upper Midwest eastward to New England. The intensity of the flooding will depend on the rate of snow and ice melt, and future rainfall.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140320_springoutlook.html 

NATIONAL SEVERE STORM PREPAREDNESS WEEK

NOAA, FEMA: Be a Force of Nature
National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 2-8
February 28, 2014

During National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 2 to 8, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are calling on individuals across the country to Be a Force of Nature: Take the Next Step by preparing for severe weather and encouraging others to do the same.

Just one tornado can cause catastrophic damage. Last year, the EF 5 tornado that struck Moore, Okla., on May 20 killed 24 people and caused more than $2 billion in damage. In 2013, a total of 903 tornadoes were reported in the United States. Those tornadoes occurred in 43 states on 152 days, resulting in 55 fatalities and more than 500 injuries.

National Severe Storm Preparedness Week

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™

We are pleased to announce that Robin Storm is now a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™ !!!!!

Welcome to the NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™  initiative. Your organization has been accepted as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador .

Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records

Atlantic Hurricane Season Sets Records

November 26, 2008

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially comes to a close on Sunday, marking the end of a season that produced a record number of consecutive storms to strike the United States and ranks as one of the more active seasons in the 64 years since comprehensive records began.

A total of 16 named storms formed this season, based on an operational estimate by NOAA's National Hurricane Center. The storms included eight hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher. These numbers fall within the ranges predicted in NOAA’s pre- and mid-season outlooks issued in May and August. The August outlook called for 14 to 18 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes. An average season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“This year’s hurricane season continues the current active hurricane era and is the tenth season to produce above-normal activity in the past 14 years,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Overall, the season is tied as the fourth most active in terms of named storms (16) and major hurricanes (five), and is tied as the fifth most active in terms of hurricanes (eight) since 1944, which was the first year aircraft missions flew into tropical storms and hurricanes.

For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the U.S. mainland and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba. This is also the first Atlantic season to have a major hurricane (Category 3) form in five consecutive months (July: Bertha, August: Gustav, September: Ike, October: Omar, November: Paloma).

Bell attributes this year’s above-normal season to conditions that include:

• An ongoing multi-decadal signal. This combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions has spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995.
• Lingering La Niña effects. Although the La Niña that began in the Fall of 2007 ended in June, its influence of light wind shear lingered.
• Warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures. On average, the tropical Atlantic was about 1.0 degree Fahrenheit above normal during the peak of the season.

Download as Quicktime (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA's National Hurricane Center is conducting comprehensive post-event assessments of each named storm of the season. Some of the early noteworthy findings include:

• Bertha was a tropical cyclone for 17 days (July 3-20), making it the longest-lived July storm on record in the Atlantic Basin.
• Fay is the only storm on record to make landfall four times in the state of Florida, and to prompt tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the state’s entire coastline (at various times during its August lifespan).
• Paloma, reaching Category 4 status with top winds of 145 mph, is the second strongest November hurricane on record behind Lenny in 1999 with top winds of 155 mph).

Much of the storm-specific information is based on operational estimates and some changes could be made during the review process that is underway.

“The information we’ll gain by assessing the events from the 2008 hurricane season will help us do an even better job in the future,” said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center. “With this season behind us, it’s time to prepare for the one that lies ahead.”

NOAA will issue its initial 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in May, prior to the official start of the season on June 1.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

WEATHER NOTE

Mother nature on display

A DALYELLUP resident in the right place at the right time witnessed a marvel of Mother Nature on the weekend – a waterspout off Bunbury’s coast.

Jaco Bosman was driving past Dalyellup Beach on Saturday evening when the meteorological phenomenon caught his eye.

Mr Bosman pulled over and watched the water spout for about a minute or two before it disappeared out of sight.

“I just caught the last of the show,” he said.

“It is the kind of thing you see on the Discovery Channel.

“I didn’t expect to see it happen in real life.”

A waterspout is an intense columnar vortex usually appearing as a funnel-shaped cloud that occurs over a body of water and is connected to a cumuliform cloud.

Waterspouts have long been recognised as serious marine hazards and history is filled with examples of ships being destroyed or damaged by them.

Meteorologist Joe Courtney said the waterspout formed due to unstable weather conditions on Saturday and rotating columns of air.

MARITIME NOTE

News from Holland and Knight

DOJ – tanker firm pays additional fine

The US Attorney for the Eastern District of Texas issued a news release stating that an oil tanker firm an additional $3 million fine after pleading guilty to additional charges relating to false entries in the oil record book of one of the company’s tankers. Prosecutors previously credited the company’s self-disclosures, cooperation, and compliance measures by proposing fewer charges and reduced criminal fines. (11/24/08).

IMO – SAR agreement between Australia & New Zealand

The IMO issued a circular forwarding an agreement between Australia and New Zealand on search and rescue (SAR) regions and coordination. SAR.6/Circ.31 (10/21/08).

THE REMAINS OF THE KURSK



The scrapping of the Kursk.
Special Thanks to Bud Shortridge
U.S. Naval Ship Research Hobbiest

The K-141 Kursk sank on August 12, 2000 in the Barents Sea with all hands. These photo's below are from the salavge of the K-141 (Kursk).

The bow of the Kursk was sawed off with a diamond rope while she sat on the bottom of the Arctic Sea. You can see the antiship missiles still in their launchers all foamed in. And there is a nuclear power plant in in the wreckage.

The K-141 Kursk was a Russian nuclear cruise missile submarine which was lost with all hands when it sank in the Barents Sea on August 12, 2000. It was named after the Russian city Kursk, around which the largest tank battle in military history, the Battle of Kursk, took place in 1943.

The Kursk sailed out to sea to perform an exercise of firing dummy torpedoes at Pyotr Velikiy, a Kirov class battlecruiser. On August 12, 2000 at 11:28 local time , the missiles were fired, but an explosion occurred soon after on Kursk. The only credible report to-date is that this was due to the failure and explosion of one of Kursks new/developmental torpedoes.

The blast from the explosion registered 2.2 on the Richter scale. The submarine sank to a depth of 108 metres (354 feet), approximately 135km (85 miles) off Severomorsk. Severomorsk is a closed town in Murmansk Oblast, Russia and is located about 25 kilometers (16 mi) north of Murmansk along the Kola Bay. This is the main administrative base of the Russian Northern Fleet.Severomorsk has the largest dry dock in the Kola Peninsula.

A second explosion occured on the K-141, 135 seconds after the initial event and measured between 3.5 and 4.4 on the Richter scale, equivalent to 3-7 tons of TNT. Either this explosion or the earlier one propelled large pieces of debris far back through the submarine. The Kursk was eventually raised from her grave by the Dutch team, Smit International. using the barge Giant 4, and 115 of the 118 dead were recovered and laid to rest in Russia .

Russian officials have strenuously denied claims that the sub was carrying nuclear warheads. When the boat was raised by a salvage operation in 2001 there were considerable fears moving the wreck could trigger explosions.

The Salvage of the k-141 Kurst.

May her lost and brave souls rest in peace.
RS

2008 tornado season could blow away records

2008 tornado season could blow away records

(USA TODAY) The 2008 tornado season is on track to set a record for the number of tornadoes in the USA, according to National Weather Service data.

Through July, 1,390 tornadoes were officially recorded in the first seven months of a year - the most ever. The annual record for tornadoes in the USA is 1,817, set in 2004.

"This year, every month has been above average for tornadoes," says Greg Forbes, of the Weather Channel.

"The 123 deaths so far this year are the second most in the Doppler-radar era, behind only 1998, when tornadoes killed 130," Forbes says.

Official numbers from the weather service's Storm Prediction Center since Aug. 1 aren't available yet, but preliminary reports for the period since then show as many as 300 tornadoes could be added. On top of that, October and November are usually very active for tornadoes.

"We tend to see a peak in the central Plains and Midwest in October, and the Southeast USA in November," says meteorologist Gregory Carbin at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. This month, the center says there have been 17 preliminary reports of tornadoes. Preliminary reports must be checked for duplication.

The number of tornadoes this year already is well above the 1,270 tornadoes the nation normally sees in a year, according to the National Weather Service.

"2008 will compete with 2004 as far as total numbers for the year," Carbin says. "There's a good chance that 2008 will see the greatest number of observed tornadoes on record."

February saw 148 tornadoes, by far a record; the February average is 28, Forbes says. May's 460 tornadoes made it the third most active May on record.

"The pattern in May and June was quite active" Carbin says. "We'd have two to three strong storm systems a week."

Although the number of reports has risen sharply since the early 1990s, Forbes says many of the weaker tornadoes probably would not have been recorded in earlier decades. Reliable tornado records in the USA go back to 1950.

An increase in national Doppler radar coverage, population sprawl into previously little-occupied areas and greater attention to reporting have contributed to the rising number of tornado reports, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

WEATHER NOTE

Format Change for Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) From 24 Hour Format to 30 Hour Format: Effective November 5 2008.


MARITIME NOTE

From Freaque Waves....

Friday, October 10, 2008

Another small boat capsizing ascribed to a freaque wave

Similar story, different part of the world oceans. This time it happens in Victoria, Australia. According to The Standard:

A CATAMARAN dubbed 'Battle Cat' felt the full fury of the sea when it was capsized and destroyed off The Flume yesterday.

The catamaran was travelling west 300 metres off the coast from Granny's Grave to The Flume at 5.30pm when a strong wind dropped and a freak wave capsized the boat.

The occupants of the vessel, Warrnambool's Kevin Chisholm, 26 and Jack Curwen-Walker, 19, escaped from the wreckage relatively unscathed.

The bad news is that's another case ascribed to a freaque wave with no particular details. The good news is that both boaters are "escaped from the wreckage relatively unscathed." Thanks be to God!

NOAA – new GPS reference stations added

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a news release stating that it recently incorporated 43 new GPS tracking sites into the Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) network. These GPS correctors enable users to determine three-dimensional locations with an accuracy of a few meters. (10/8/08).

RS

Jet Streams Are Shifting And May Alter Paths Of Storms And Hurricanes

Jet Streams Are Shifting And May Alter Paths Of Storms And Hurricanes

ScienceDaily (Apr. 17, 2008) — The Earth's jet streams, the high-altitude bands of fast winds that strongly influence the paths of storms and other weather systems, are shifting--possibly in response to global warming. Scientists at the Carnegie Institution determined that over a 23-year span from 1979 to 2001 the jet streams in both hemispheres have risen in altitude and shifted toward the poles. The jet stream in the northern hemisphere has also weakened. These changes fit the predictions of global warming models and have implications for the frequency and intensity of future storms, including hurricanes.

Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology tracked changes in the average position and strength of jet streams using records compiled by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Centers for Environmental Protection, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The data included outputs from weather prediction models, conventional observations from weather balloons and surface instruments, and remote observations from satellites.

Jet streams twist and turn in a wide swath that changes from day to day. The poleward shift in their average location discovered by the researchers is small, about 19 kilometers (12 miles) per decade in the northern hemisphere, but if the trend continues the impact could be significant. "The jet streams are the driving factor for weather in half of the globe," says Archer. "So, as you can imagine, changes in the jets have the potential to affect large populations and major climate systems."

Storm paths in North America are likely to shift northward as a result of the jet stream changes. Hurricanes, whose development tends to be inhibited by jet streams, may become more powerful and more frequent as the jet streams move away from the sub-tropical zones where hurricanes are born.

The observed changes are consistent with numerous other signals of global warming found in previous studies, such as the widening of the tropical belt, the cooling of the stratosphere, and the poleward shift of storm tracks. This is the first study to use observation-based datasets to examine trends in all the jet stream parameters, however.

"At this point we can't say for sure that this is the result of global warming, but I think it is," says Caldeira. "I would bet that the trend in the jet streams' positions will continue. It is something I'd put my money on."

The results are published in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters.

WEATHER NOTE

It's Severe Weather Week

Severe Weather Awareness Week takes place April 21-25 this year, with the statewide tornado drills Thursday.

At 1:45 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service will issue a simulated tornado warning, and outdoor warning sirens will be activated. At 6:55 p.m., a second drill will take place in Scott County for families and second-shift workers.

“Everyone should practice their safety plans during Severe Weather Awareness Week,” said Chris Weldon, Scott County emergency management director. “There is no pattern to these things. A tornado can happen any day — without warning — and your preparation time is well spent.”

According to National Weather Service data, tornadoes have occurred in every Minnesota county at some time during the past 57 years. Scott County has experienced 12 tornadoes since 1950.

The Minnesota Department of Public Safety Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, along with the National Weather Service and the American Red Cross, sponsors Severe Weather Awareness Week annually to promote weather knowledge and planning. The Web site at www.severweather.state.mn.us, contains tornado safety information along with instructions on surviving thunderstorms, hail, straight-line winds, heat waves, floods and lightning. Links to the National Weather Service and Red Cross provide fascinating weather facts and a variety of downloadable resources for families, teachers and children.

Citizens prepped on disaster response
BY MICHAEL OPPERMANN
SPECIAL TO THE STAR-BANNER

Published: Monday, April 21, 2008 at 6:30 a.m.

OCALA — Marion County government, taking a proactive approach to terrorism, hosted a three-day training course under a grant from the Department of Homeland Security. Successful completion of the course, and an associated online component, granted educational credit to those who passed, better preparing them to respond to the possibility of terrorist events.

From Tuesday to Thursday, two instructors from the Texas Engineering Extension Service trained locals in recognizing, responding to and recovering from terrorist incidents.

The course, "Public Works: Planning for and Responding to a Terrorist/WMD Incident," was designed to help integrate training for terrorist events into existing emergency response plans.

Byrd Wilcox, safety hazard coordinator for the Public Works Bureau, said that while every emergency situation is unique, they all have common elements. Hurricanes, fires, chemical spills and terrorist threats can all be handled using the same crisis management techniques.

"All that this class is teaching the participants is that no matter how small or big [an event] is, it uses the same process," Byrd said.

Instructors Luke Stevens and David Pullen, both longtime public works officials, spent much of the course time discussing how communities react to emergencies and analyzing government response to previous terrorist events.

"One way we learn is from our own experiences. If we do that, then the depth of our knowledge will be limited by our experiences," Pullen said. "If we can learn from other people's experiences, then we broaden our knowledge and broaden the probability of a successful outcome."

Luiz Bisacchi, principle business analyst for public works in Hillsborough County, agrees, having attended the course to aid in the development of his community's hazmat protocols. "The Oklahoma case study was very helpful," he said. "Hopefully I can take some of [what I learned] back home and apply that to our plans."

COMMUNICATION IS KEY

Hot-button issues during the course were communications during an emergency situation and the integration of various agencies into the emergency response.

Lawrence Thacker, Marion County Public Works Bureau Chief, taught the course five years ago, and said that responding to an emergency "takes a lot of communication and a lot of coordination." The inability to do so complicates emergency situations and reduces the effectiveness of recovery efforts.

He feels the most effective way to safely deal with a crisis situation is to develop response plans well in advance and train workers in implementation of those plans.

"Safety is important to me because of my background," Thacker said. "I spent 18 years working underground in coal mines. I know what it is like when you've got your employees with you and you're trapped for 36 hours."

Attendee Andrea Nelson, of the transportation department's Public Education and Outreach section, is aware of the importance of effective communication.

"In a designated emergency I'm assigned to a public information function," she said, "so I think it's always good to know how your area will be interacting with others."

Nelson feels that increased training over the last few years has prepared government employees to better deal with emergencies.

"Setting up an incident command, determining who is in charge, identifying the functions that have to be filled and filling those, I think everyone here has been through the basics of that," she said.

INTEGRATION

Integration of services into a single command and communication structure is equally as important. While many note the disaster relief contributions of police officers, firemen and EMS personnel, they often overlook the contributions of public works employees and volunteers.

Stevens believes 90 percent of an emergency situation involves people from public works.

"Most people who look at an incident are looking at the initial response; it is putting everything back together that is the hardest part. The more that public works is involved, the better off you're going to be," he said. "Either the community is going to respond well together, or everybody is going to lose."

Robert Middleton, senior litter crew supervisor for solid waste, knows the value of integrating his efforts with an emergency response plan.

"We have a plan in place for natural disasters and terrorists," Middleton said. By preparing now, his people will be ready to fulfill their role when called to respond to an emergency situation.

TRAINED VOLUNTEERS

Wilcox said volunteers can be valuable assets in an emergency situation, but only if they are correctly integrated into the response plan. "Volunteers need to be trained and credentialed," he said.

Having people show up at a disaster site without going through proper channels disrupts the command structure and lines of communication, leaves people working at cross-purposes and potentially turns would-be volunteers into victims. Unstable ground, overhead debris, toxic fumes and other hazards can injure or kill the unprepared.

Wilcox suggests that members of the public who want to become involved in disaster response should follow the example of county government and plan ahead. Citizens should prepare disaster supply kits of food, water, flashlights and other necessities and review shelter-in-place and evacuation procedures that can be found on the Internet.

Proactive citizens also can join organizations such as the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Citizen Corps and Amateur Radio Emergency Service.

MARITIME NOTE

A salvage company is being sought to recover a tanker truck and logging equipment that sank to the bottom of Robson Bight, off northern Vancouver Island, last August.

A tugboat was used to move a barge that overturned in Johnstone Strait last August.
(Coleen Johnson)

A barge carrying the truck and equipment capsized in Johnstone Strait, an ecological reserve for killer whales.

B.C. Environment Minister Barry Penner said his government is concerned that leaking fuel may pose a threat to orcas and other marine life.

Penner and Loyola Hearn, Federal Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, announced Friday that they have decided to attempt a recovery operation following months of debate over what to do about the wreckage.

Penner said the first priority is to go after the equipment that contains the most fuel.

The barge was pushed to shore by the tugboat near Beaver Cove.
(Coleen Johnson)

"That would be the fuel truck that had a tank that could hold up to 10,000 litres of diesel fuel," he said. "There's also a piece of equipment that we believe contains a significant amount of hydraulic fluid."

Penner said only a handful of companies in North America have the expertise to do the job.

The minister said the plan is to retrieve the equipment as quickly as possible, while minimizing From Holland and Knightthe impact on wildlife.

He said recent video footage of the sunken equipment shows it to be in decent shape.

Legal Notes From Holland and Knight

USCG – reminder to replace older EPIRBs

The US Coast Guard issued a press release reminding mariners that older model Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs) that broadcast on 121.5 MHz or 243 MHz will not be monitored by satellite as of February 1, 2009. Effective that date, the satellites will only monitor for radio beacons broadcasting on 406 MHz. Some of the newer EPIRBs are equipped with embedded GPS, which will automatically signal the location of the distress. (4/18/08).

RS

Forecasters Implement New Hurricane-tracking Technique

Forecasters Implement New Hurricane-tracking Technique

ScienceDaily (Apr. 15, 2008) — A new technique that helps forecasters continuously monitor landfalling hurricanes, giving them frequent and detailed images of a storm's location, will be implemented this summer.

(Picture Left -VORTRAC will provide hurricane forecasters with detailed updates on hurricanes as storms approach land. (Credit: Michael Bell, NCAR)

The new system, developed by National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Washington, D.C., will be implemented at the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The technique, known as VORTRAC (Vortex Objective Radar Tracking and Circulation), was successfully tested by the hurricane center last year.

"VORTRAC is an excellent example of the application of basic research to help improve short-term hurricane warnings," says Steve Nelson, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

The system, which relies on existing Doppler radars along the U.S. coast, provides details on hurricane winds and central pressure every six minutes, indicating whether the storm is gathering strength in the final hours before reaching shore.

"We are very gratified by the decision of the National Hurricane Center to adopt this new now-casting tool," says NCAR scientist Wen-Chau Lee. "VORTRAC will enable hurricane specialists, for the first time, to continuously monitor the trend in central pressure as a dangerous storm nears land. With the help of VORTRAC, vulnerable communities can be better informed of sudden changes in hurricane intensity."

Lee, NRL's Paul Harasti, and NCAR's Michael Bell led the technique's development. Funding came from NSF and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

One of VORTRAC's strengths is that it can use radar data to calculate the barometric pressure at the center of a hurricane, a key measure of its intensity.

"VORTRAC allows us to take the wind measurements from the radar, turn the crank, and have a central pressure drop out of a calculation," says Colin McAdie, a meteorologist at NHC. "This will be a valuable addition to the tools available to the forecaster."

Rapidly intensifying storms can catch vulnerable coastal areas by surprise. Last year, Hurricane Humberto struck near Port Arthur, Texas, after unexpectedly strengthening from a tropical depression to a hurricane in less than 19 hours. In 2004, parts of Florida's southwest coast were caught unprepared when Hurricane Charley's top winds increased from 110 to 145 miles per hour in just six hours as the storm neared land.

Lee and his collaborators applied VORTRAC retroactively to the two hurricanes and found that the technique would have accurately tracked their quick bursts in intensity.

"VORTRAC has demonstrated that it can capture sudden intensity changes in potentially dangerous hurricanes in the critical time period when these storms are nearing land," Bell says.

VORTRAC uses the Doppler radar network established by NOAA in the 1990s.

About 20 of these radars are scattered along the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines from Texas to Maine. Each radar can measure winds blowing toward or away from it, but no single radar could provide an estimate of a hurricane's rotational winds and central pressure until now.

The VORTRAC team developed a series of mathematical formulas that combine data from a single radar near the center of a landfalling storm with general knowledge of Atlantic hurricane structure in order to map the approaching system's rotational winds. VORTRAC also infers the barometric pressure in the eye of the hurricane, a very reliable index of its strength.

"By merging several techniques, we can now provide a missing link in short-term hurricane prediction," Harasti says.

Forecasters using VORTRAC can update information about a hurricane each time a Doppler radar scans the storm, which can be as often as about every six minutes. Without such a technique, forecasters would need at least two coastal radars in close proximity to each other in order to obtain the same information. But most of the network's radars are too far apart to qualify.

Each radar can sample conditions out to about 120 miles. This means VORTRAC can track an incoming hurricane for at least several hours, and possibly even as long as a day or more, depending on the storm's speed, trajectory, and size.

To monitor the winds of a landfalling hurricane, forecasters now rely on aircraft to drop instrument packages into the storm that gather data on winds and pressure. But due to flight logistics, the aircraft can take readings no more than every few hours, which means that coastal communities may not be swiftly alerted to changes in approaching hurricanes.

VORTRAC may also help improve long-range hurricane forecasts by using data from airborne Doppler radars or spaceborne radars to produce detailed information about a hurricane that is far out to sea.

Forecasters could input the data to computer models to improve three- and five-day forecasts

WEATHER NOTE

EARTHQUAKE IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FELT ACROSS CHICAGOLAND

The U.S. Geological Survey reported that a magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred at approximately 437 AM CDT Friday morning in southeast Illinois. It was centered 7 miles east of West Salem Illinois. This is 41 miles north-northwest of Evansville Indiana and 128 miles east of St. Louis Missouri. The earthquake was felt across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana including at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Romeoville.

According to the USGS web site www.earthquake.usgs.gov this earthquake equalled the magnitude of the largest historical earthquake in that region, which damaged southern Illinois in 1968.

U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (24 hours): 303-273-8500

Changes to Local Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Chicago routinely issues a Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) daily at 430 AM and 430 PM Central Time. The HWO highlights any potentially hazardous weather that is anticipated over the next several days. It can be found at the NWS Chicago web page, http://weather.gov/chicago. From the main menu on the left, under “Current Hazards”, click on “Outlooks”. The top item on the Outlooks page is “Latest Local Hazardous Weather Outlook”.

Effective April 15, 2008 the HWO will be also updated at 1100 AM during the warm season from March through September 30. This will be mainly to enhance the forecast thunderstorm threat. When thunderstorms are forecast in the Day 1 period, the HWO will be enhanced with three sections;

1. The “WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED” section will list the hazards expected during the day one period, including the potential magnitude and coverage or probability of occurrence.

2. The “AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING” section will highlight the portions of the outlook that are expected to be impacted, as well as the time(s) that the hazards are expected to occur.

3. The “DISCUSSION” section will be used to briefly elaborate on the hazardous weather that is expected during the day one period. (Continued)

Maritime Note

Award flagged for Pasha Bulker rescuers

A helicopter team from the NSW Hunter region has been nominated for a bravery award for the rescue of 22 people from the stranded bulk carrier, the Pasha Bulker.

The federal government nominated the Westpac Rescue Helicopter Service (Hunter Region) for the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Award for Exceptional Bravery at Sea, Leader of the House Anthony Albanese said in a statement on Monday.

In gale force winds and heavy seas, the Pasha Bulker became stranded at Nobby's Beach off Newcastle in June last year.

The night-time helicopter rescue involved the winching of each crew member from the stranded ship in severe weather conditions, with all safely evacuated without injury, Mr Albanese said.

On board the helicopter were pilots Ian McFadden and Ian Osborne, and crew members Graham Nickisson, Peter Praniess, Glen Ramplin and Nathan Langham.

Each man "risked their own lives" during the operation, believed to be the largest-scale rescue from a bulk carrier in recent maritime history, Mr Albanese said.

Nominations for the bravery awards closed last Wednesday and winners will be judged by an international panel selected by the IMO.

Winners will be announced in September.

Kotuku was not seaworthy

Apr 18, 2008 7:04 AM

Accident investigators say the Kotuku which sank off Bluff two years ago with the loss of six lives should never have gone out to sea.

And they say the fact it had been given a safety clearance is a warning for hundreds of other similar vessels around the country.

The Transport Accident Investigation Commission report says those who died and their families have been failed by the maritime inspection system.

Hours into the Kotuku's voyage six people were dead and investigators say the boat was not seaworthy.

"Simply put, the Kotuku shouldn't have been issued with a Fit for Purpose Certificate," says Doug Monks, chief investigator.

When two big waves tipped over the Kotuku, the Topi family's kaumatua, Peter Topi, his daughter Tania and nine-year-old grandsons Shane topi-Tairi and sailor Trow Topi were all trapped inside.

The skipper's friend, Shorty Hayward, died in the water and deckhand Clinton Woods later succumbed to hypothermia.

After raising the wreckage, investigators found it should not have passed inspection because of the poor state of its hull, unknown stability capability and poor deck drainage.

"The vessel wasn't seaworthy and that was proven by the fact it was unable to negotiate its way out of the conditions," says Pauline Winter, Deputy Chief Commissioner.

But an angry skipper disagrees. John Edminson says the report is full of errors, he stands by his boat and is waiting to read the Maritime New Zealand report.

He has plenty of support in Bluff.

"It's rubbish. She a very good sea boat and she was very well maintained," says Alex Mullinder, Bluff resident.

"If it was a warrant of fitness for a car, and they got it wrong, heads would roll," says a local woman.

The wife of one of the passengers who died that day, Judy Hayward, says her husband would never have gone out on the muttonbirding trip if he thought the boat was unsafe.

Hayward says Edminson did all he could to support the survivors and her family will be always grateful to him for that.

Hayward says her husband had all the faith in the world in his friend and in the trip he was going on.

But the report says the Kotuku in fact was not approved for passengers. There weren't enough lifejackets onboard and the life raft was wedged in and didn't float free.

All these issues pointed to problems with the maritime inspections.

"The commission really hopes, the commission expects that future practice will change significantly. says Winter.

The commission says it's not about blame and is just trying to stop tragedies like this happening again.

Maritime safety investigator Tom Sawyer says the lessons learned from the tragedy should be a monument to the six people who died. He says the report into the sinking needs to be read by the right people and acted on.

Sawyer says the Kotuku should not have been given a fit for purpose certificate. But he says like people with a car, you trust the people who give you a warrant of fitness.

Professional Skipper magazine editor Keith Ingram says it really is up to the owners to ensure their boats are seaworthy. Ingram says the reality is that there are at least 200 boats in New Zealand waters that shouldn't be.

Maritime New Zealand, the organisation responsible for regulating the industry, says the commission's recommendations have been accepted and progress is well under way in implementing them.

Director Catherine Taylor says a number of factors combined to cause the accident and MNZ accepts that elements of the Safe Ship Management (SSM) system needed improving.

Introduced in 1996, SSM requires vessel owners to be responsible for the day-to-day safety of their vessels and covers all aspects of safety, including occupational safety and health systems, crew qualifications, hazard identification, condition of the vessel and its fitness for purpose.

Taylor says the vast majority of the 3200 vessels in its SSM system are operating safely and older commercial wooden vessels like Kotuku make up only a very small proportion of vessels in the system.

She says MNZ took immediate steps after the accident to ensure important safety messages arising out of it were communicated to others in the industry.

"MNZ issued safety bulletins about the importance of keeping vessel freeing ports clear to allow water to drain off the deck, and of ensuring that life raft cradles were properly fitted so that the life raft can release in the event of an emergency," she says.

"MNZ is also continuing to work closely with representatives from the Bluff fishing community and local Iwi prior to the muttonbird seasons to raise awareness of these issues and help foster a good safety culture."

From Holland and Knight

Caribbean Sea – tanker rescues mariners after sinking

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that a nearby tanker diverted to rescue the 11-man crew of a Korean freighter that sank in the Caribbean Sea. The freighter sank after its cargo shifted in a storm. (4/16/08).

Messing About In Ships podcast episode 19

April 17, 2008, 4:31 am
Filed under: podcast, shownotes

Episode 19 of Messing About In Ships has launched.

(49 minutes)

Download MP3: Messing About In Ships Episode 19 - April 17, 2008

Shownotes: coming soon

Finally... The Research Ship James Cook in a Atlantic storm!

Enjoy your weekend!

RS

Hurricane Watching on the Cheap

Hurricane Watching on the Cheap

By Phil Berardelli
ScienceNOW Daily News
15 April 2008

It might be much less adventurous than piloting an aircraft directly into the eye of a Category 5 hurricane, but researchers have found that simply listening to a storm using underwater microphones can provide much of the same information about its destructive power.

Over the past several decades, scientists have vastly improved their ability to track hurricanes and cyclones. The best tools are weather satellites, which photograph the storms from various Earth orbits, and so-called hurricane hunters, rugged research aircraft filled with iron-nerved crew members. Aircraft are particularly important, because they can provide precise information about the intensity of the storm, which satellites cannot. These details help officials in coastal areas make critical decisions about whether to order evacuations as the storms bear down. But flying the aircraft costs millions of dollars per year.

Now a team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge has developed what might become a bargain-basement way to stay on top of hurricane intensity. The solution is a Cold War leftover: sensitive hydrophones that can perceive underwater sounds--whether generated by enemy submarines or an approaching tempest.

"We had a couple of strokes of good luck," says ocean scientist Nicholas Makris of MIT's Laboratory for Undersea Remote Sensing. He and former graduate assistant Joshua Wilson ran across some acoustic data collected in 1999 by sensors in deep water along the mid-Atlantic ridge. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put them there to monitor seismic activity, but the sensors happened to record the noise of winds as Hurricane Gert passed overhead. Then, within a day, a NOAA aircraft flew into Gert's eye. "There was almost a perfect correlation" between the wind speeds interpreted from the hydrophone data and the speeds collected by the aircraft, says Makris, who, along with Wilson, will report the findings in an upcoming issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

The technology is so inexpensive that just about any nation can use it routinely, Makris says. At its simplest, it requires only a small plane to drop a submerged hydrophone array in the path of an approaching storm and then collect the data by retrieving the sensors. A more elaborate variation is to station a permanent array that is wired to the mainland along known hurricane paths. That is what Makris has been planning to do in cooperation with the Mexican navy. They have planted such sensors near Isla Socorro, off the country's west coast, which is reputed to experience more hurricanes than anywhere on Earth--although the region has been untouched now for months. "We're still waiting," Makris says.

The technique is a "novel and practical approach" to gauging hurricane intensity safely and cheaply, says applied physicist Jeffrey Simmen of the University of Washington, Seattle. Simmen, an underwater acoustics specialist, says he likes the idea that the sensing technique is "truly passive," using the noise generated by hurricanes to collect data. That makes it nondisruptive to whales and other sound-sensitive marine creatures, he says.

WEATHER NOTE

Canyoners on fatal trip missed severe weather warning

As Elim Christian College in Auckland grieves over the deaths of six students and a teacher in a flash flood in on Tuesday, questions have been asked about the response to a severe weather warning.

The students and teacher were on a canyoning trip run by the Sir Edmund Hillary Outdoor Pursuits Centre near the Tongariro National Park.

The centre says it did not receive a weather forecast predicting heavy rain.

However, the MetService says it issued a severe weather warning - the most serious caution possible - for the area at 8.30am on Tuesday, forecasting steady rain with sudden pockets of heavy downpours. MetService forecasting manager Peter Kreft says the warning contained an extra comment to watch for rapidly rising rivers.

The centre's chief executive, Grant Davidson, says a MetService fax at 6.15 that morning, which was used to brief staff, had no indication of heavy rain warnings. He says the issue surrounding the forecast will be investigated in a review of the tragedy.

Recovery of the victims

Five of the group, including an adult instructor, were rescued on Tuesday night. Four students and a teacher were found dead at the same time. Search teams later found the bodies of two other teenagers, at about 4am on Wednesday.

Police released the names of the victims on Wednesday. They were: Natasha Bray, of Pakuranga; Portia McPhail, of Manurewa; Huan (Tom) Hsu, of Farm Cove; Anthony Mulder, of Howick; Floyd Fernandez, of Howick; and Tara Gregory, of Mt Wellington. All were 16. The teacher was Anthony McLean, 29, of Howick.

The deaths have been referred to the Palmerston North Coroner for investigation.

School community mourns

Hundreds of supporters and mourners gathered on Wednesday at Auckland's Elim Christian College and special assemblies were held as the tragedy hit home.

Principal Murray Burton says the school has lost "a fine bunch of students". He says all had great leadership skills and their teacher was "an incredible person" who was in charge of redeveloping sports.

Prime Minister Helen Clark says the deaths are an unspeakable tragedy. She has pledged support from government agencies for the affected families and the school community, and is sending her condolences.

The Minister of Education Chris Carter visited the school on Wednesday, and says a trauma response team has been there since Tuesday night and extra staff will be provided if required. He would not be drawn on whether there will be an investigation by education authorities into health and safety issues around the adventure course.

Parliament passed a notice of motion expressing its deep sorrow at the deaths. The leaders of all political parties voiced their sympathy in Parliament for those affected by the tragedy.

Students wore lifejackets

The Outdoor Pursuits Centre's chief executive, Grant Davidson, says the wave of water that swept away the group was a freak occurrence. He says a young girl also died in the area after slipping under a log in the water in 1976.

Mr Davidson says the instructor leading the group had been working with the centre for several months and was fully qualified. He says the students were equipped and all were wearing wetsuits, lifejackets and helmets.

He says staff and the centre's trustees are devastated by the tragedy. The centre will investigate what happened and fully co-operate with all other investigations.

The Outdoor Instructors Association says the canyon where the group got into difficulty usually provides for a fairly straightforward trip. Chief executive Matthew Cant worked at the centre some years ago and says the Mangatepopo Gorge is relatively easy to navigate. He says the river is not a huge challenge to somebody who is well prepared and is being led.

Mr Cant says the centre has been conducting the Upstream Gorge trip for 36 years, giving tens of thousands of young people a "terrific" experience.

Ruapehu police district commander Steve Mastrovich says it appears the group was simply caught in the wrong place at the wrong time. "This is an alpine environment, so weather and other conditions are subject to pretty rapid change. This tragedy is completely unusual."

MARITIME NOTE

From gCaptain: What Went Wrong Aboard the MV Pasha Bulker?

While we're on the subject of management lessons, Master Mariner John Konrad, our esteemed colleague over at gCaptain, has some harsh words to say about the captain of the MV Pasha Bulker, a 225 meter bulk cargo ship that ran agound on Nobby's Beach in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia last summer when the area was hit by a major storm that generated gale force winds and extremely high seas.

There were 56 ships moored at Newcastle when the storm warning was issued by local authorities, and all but 10 of them sailed far offshore to avoid the heavy weather. The captain of the Pasha Bulker decided to stay, but when the huge storm finally struck, he then tried desperately to head out to sea — but it was too late. The ship ran aground at 9:15 am on a public beach not far from downtown Newcastle, and shortly thereafter it "hogged" — meaning, the spine of the ship cracked under the stress of the crashing waves. How embarrassing.

The ship was eventually refloated and salvaged, but not before it provided a bonanza for dozens of Australian Flickr photographers. Now a formal investigation of the incident is underway, and the judgment of the Pasha Bulker's captain has been called into question. Indeed, though gCaptain's MM Konrad is normally quite mild-mannered, as an expert mariner himself, the reports prompted him to issue some stern words about the management decisions that were made aboard the Pasha Bulker. Regarding the decision not to head out to sea, MM Konrad says:

46 ships decide to leave port to avoid dragging anchor in an unprotected harbor and the Pasha Bulker stays, while this action is questionable the decision is not necessarily breaking the rule of prudent seamanship. The next morning Port Authorities “try again” to evict the remaining ships. I do not have details on the warning but it’s normal procedure to give the availability of tug boats that could help a ship in danger. Either way rescue tugs never showed and were apparently not requested by the captain.

At this point in the time line the captain became a danger to the vessel and crew. A master’s disagreement with port authority suggestions is understandable and the choice to ignore the warnings are his prerogative but one necessary step was not taken; vigilance. This is the time for a captain to ask himself the questions mentioned above, this is the moment to question your own decision, this is your chance to solidify a bridge team management plan and put the crew on high alert.

The chronology from here was a comedy of errors, but the the Pasha Bulker soon ran aground, and when it did, the captain ordered his crew to abandon ship even though the engines were still sound and the ship was resting securely on the beach. To which MM Konrad says:

Panic is the number enemy number one in an emergency situation. While some have more difficulty than others avoiding it a captain should never panic. This is a primary reason it takes 10 years of sailing experience and school to obtain a master’s license. In these 10 years you will be exposed to situations at sea that test your panic trigger, if you are unacceptable to panic or indecision at the time if crisis you should not take command of a ship. Many mariners face difficulty getting promoted to second mate for this very reason, as this officer position is the highest pay grade obtainable without the need for making life threatening decisions in the face of danger. I have met few captains to which the Peter Principal applies.

RS

Tornado startles Atlanta!

Tornado startles Atlanta

By PHIL GAST
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 03/15/08

Visitors, conventioneers visibly shaken

One of the most visible casualties of Friday's weather wrath was the Thomas P. Hinman Dental Meeting. Thousands of attendees were turned away Saturday morning from the Georgia World Congress Center.

Several recounted Friday night's trauma.

"The wind just kept getting faster and faster and louder and louder," said dentist Doug Clepper of Augusta. He and his wife took the fire escape downstairs from their 10th floor room in Omni Hotel.

"It was very surreal. People were dressed up for parties. Women were crying," Clepper said.

The storm was a huge blow to an estimated 24,000 exhibitors, speakers and professionals attending the dental show.

The GWCC roof had heavy damage. Exhibitors faced the task of trying to remove exhibits, some of them large, after the cancellation.

Outside the GWCC, a dozen tables and umbrellas were a tumble of plastic.

Throughout the CNN, Omni and GWCC complex, workers cleared glass and debris. Twenty-foot sections of metal roofing lie twisted in parking lots. Insulation was left hanging in trees outside CNN. Dozens of windows at the Omni were missing.

The CNN atrium was closed Saturday morning.

Outside CNN and the hotel were several parked cars, windows blown out by the force of the winds.

Terrell Brown of Centric Orthodontics of Marietta said the postponement of the Hinman meeting could mean thousands of dollars in lost revenue for companies that sell their products at the show.

"To lose a full day could cost you a third of your projected revenue," Brown said.

Timmi Hagan and Kori Singleton of Macon were attending the Hinman meeting and staying at The Glenn hotel on Marietta street.

They rushed to a closet when the tornado came through late Friday.

"We saw people running," Hagan, a dentist, said. They feared the window to their room would shatter, but it did not.

A building on Nassau Street adjacent to Techwood Drive crumbled onto nearby cars when Centennial Park, CNN Center and the Georgia Dome were damaged. Ben Gray/AJC

Also See More photos: Gallery 2, Latest story | More Weather photos

NWS PEACHTREE CITY, GEORGIA

The tornado that left behind extensive damage packed winds up to 130 mph and was rated an EF-2 storm, said Lance Rothfusz, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service office in Peachtree City. Story

During Alabama and Mississippi State SEC tournament basketball game a tornado may have hit the Georgia Dome.




MARITIME NOTES

RS

Understanding & predicting severe storms

Understanding & predicting severe storms

According to the Department of Commerce, 42 percent of our gross domestic product is in sectors that are affected by severe weather and climate. Bad weather, or badly forecast weather, means far more than cancelled plans and personal inconvenience. The impact of the weather on our economy, safety, and environment can be severe both through extreme events (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, drought, etc.) and just day-to-day fluctuations. In the U.S., estimates of average annual damage ($16 billion) and loss of life (1,500) are significant and impact every state. According to the Department of Commerce, 42 percent of our gross domestic product is in sectors that are affected by severe weather and climate. Conversely, good information about weather and climate can be used effectively to enhance economic activities and improve quality of life.

Researchers in NCAR's Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division of the Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, and in the Research Applications Laboratory, strive to understand the physical processes and genesis of such extreme weather, in order to protect human lives and property.

Studying Severe Storms

• Thunderstorms

  More than 1,000 thunderstorms rage across Earth's surface at any moment. They bring beneficial rains, but thunderstorms can also spawn lightning, tornadoes, hail, and flash floods. NCAR scientists and their collaborators pry into the heart of thunderstorms using aircraft, balloons, mobile radars, and computer models.

• Hail

  The pelting chunks of ice known as hail can ruin vehicles and slice plants to ribbons in minutes. Only a few Americans have been killed by hail in recent decades, but a number are injured each year. NCAR researchers have analyzed some of the biggest hailstones on Earth and developed radar-based techniques for spotting hail.

• Lightning

  Using sophisticated instruments that can track lightning bolts and the electric fields that trigger them, NCAR scientists have learned much about these spectacular, deadly products of thunderstorms.

• Tornadoes

  More than 1,000 twisters touch down in the United States in a typical year. However, U.S. death and injury tolls have dropped considerably in recent decades due to better warnings. NCAR has joined colleagues to delve into the processes that drive tornado formation and evolution.

• Floods

  The powerful and deadly force of flash floods is an underrated risk. Even though the U.S. population has nearly doubled since 1950, the death toll from most weather hazards has dropped by half or more, while the flooding toll has risen slightly. NCAR's precipitation research touches on many aspects of the flood threat.

• Hurricanes and Typhoons

  Tropical cyclones with winds at or above 74 miles per hour (119 kilometers per hour) are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific, and typhoons in the western Pacific. Sensors and computer models developed at NCAR help track and predict these tropical tempests more accurately than ever.

• Winter Storms

  Large, complex weather systems can dump snow on one city, coat another with ice, and drench others in rain. These storms are shaped by weather elements that extend from the tropics to the poles and from ground level to the heights where aircraft cruise. NCAR is studying the mechanisms behind our worst winter storms.

WEATHER NOTES

The First Tornado Forecast

March 9, 2008, 10:06 pm | Bill Murray | Weather History

Before a man in the Signal Corps named John Park Finley came along, the tornadoes that occurred on the American Plains were considered to be unforecastable. Finley was allowed to investigate the destructive storms by his superiors. He was assigned to the Weather Research Unit in Washington, D.C.

Finley had studied the atmospheric parameters that were present during previous tornadoes. In 1884, he published his research in the journal Science. Here are those parameters, published in a 1999 Weather & Forecasting article.

1. there is a definite relation between the position of tornado regions and the region of high contrasts in temperature, the former lying to the south and east;

2. there is a similar definite relation of position of tornado regions and the region of high contrasts in dewpoint, the former being, as before, to the south and east;

3. the position of tornado regions is to the south and east of the region of high contrasts of cool northerly and warm southerly winds—a rule that seems to follow from the preceding and is of use when observations of temperature and dewpoint are not accessible;

4. the relation of tornado regions to the movement of upper and lower clouds has been studied and good results are still hoped for;

5. the study of the relation of tornado regions to the form of barometric depressions seems to show that tornadoes are more frequent when the major axis of the barometric troughs trends north and south, or northeast and southwest, than when it trends east and west.

On this date (March 10) in 1884, Finley issued the first experimental tornado prediction, utilizing the parameters. As you can see, they are still accurate and largely in use today. The use of the word “tornado” in forecasts would be banned a few years later. That ban would remain in place until 1952.

MARITIME NOTES

High winds fail to halt Riverdance ferry bid
By Rob Stocks

STRONG winds and high tides will not hamper efforts to salvage the stricken ferry Riverdance. It is now more than five weeks since the 6,000-ton roll on roll of ferry ran aground on the sands at Anchorshome after being struck by a freak wave in the Irish Sea.

See more information on The Riverdance

Hopes are high she can be returned to an upright position this week, despite nightmare weather being predicted today.

View our Shipwreck online special

See The Riverdance webcam

See our Riverdance picture gallery - updated daily

There are severe weather warnings for some parts of the west coast today coupled with a spring tide in excess of nine metres.

But officials from the Coastguard Agency believe they will not cause any worsening in the Riverdance's 90 degree list.

Flotation tanks are now clearly visible on one side of the ferry.

A spokeswoman said: "We are keeping a close eye on the situation at Blackpool.

"Obviously there are going to be some high tides and strong winds.

"We do not however believe that will pose any further problems for the Riverdance. She should not move any further.

"The timetable is still in place for attempts to bring her upright on Thursday."

Despite some reports the Riverdance would be cut up on the sands at Anchorsholme, coastguards and salvage team members are still hopeful she can be towed off in one piece.

A spokeswoman for the coastguard said: "Work on the salvage efforts in going well.

"All the welding onboard is complete.

"It is still the plan to tow her off the sands and the salvage team are confident that can happen."

Met Office officials are expecting the worst of the storms to miss Blackpool, but predict a 20 per cent chance of disruption in North West England as a result of the weather.

People are being urged to stay away from the sea front as strong winds coupled with a high tide could make the area dangerous.

The winds are due to ease across the UK by early on Tuesday.

RS