Great Lakes Water Levels Sensitive To Climate Change

Great Lakes Water Levels Sensitive To Climate Change

ScienceDaily (Jan. 14, 2009) — The water level in the Great Lakes has varied by only about two meters during the last century, helping them to play a vital role in the region's shipping, fishing, recreation and power generation industries.

But new evidence by scientists from the University of Rhode Island and colleagues in the U.S. and Canada, published recently in the journal Eos, indicates that the water level in the lake system is highly sensitive to climate changes.

"In the distant past, there were great fluctuations in the water level of the Great Lakes, but it was thought to have been related entirely to the advance and retreat of the glaciers," said URI geological oceanographer John King, who led the study with URI visiting scientist Michael Lewis, emeritus scientist with the Geological Survey of Canada. "But the last time lake levels fell dramatically – down to 20 meters below the basin overflow outlets – it was due to dry climate conditions."

That event, which occurred between 7900 and 7500 years ago in the early Holocene period, caused the lakes to become disconnected as their overflow rivers, including the Niagara River, ran dry.

"People used to say that the oceans are so big, we can dump whatever we want in them and nothing will happen," said King. "They thought of the Great Lakes in the same way, that the system is too large to be sensitive to climate variations. But now we know that to be untrue. We've demonstrated that at least once in the last 10,000 years, climate drove the lake levels down pretty substantially."

Researchers had long assumed that the Great Lakes had been "hydrologically open" and connected since their formation 16,000 years ago during the retreat of the last ice sheet, but recent evidence has found this to be false. Ancient shorelines, submerged beaches, and tree stumps on the floor of some lakes indicate that the water line had been as much as 20 meters below the present lake level."We had a multi-proxy approach to this study, and through many lines of evidence we identified this as a dry interval with a climactic cause as opposed to a glacial-related cause," King said.

The climate and water levels in the Great Lakes region are determined by the interplay of three air masses: dry, cold Arctic air from the North, dry warm Pacific air from the West, and warm, moist tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico. The scientists found that during the period when lake levels receded significantly, the dry air from the Arctic and Pacific was dominant. Later, when precipitation from the tropical air mass became more frequent, the Great Lakes began to flow from one to another as they do today.

King worries about the economic impact to the Great Lakes region if the present climate changes lower water levels significantly. Navigation, water usage and hydropower would be severely affected.

"The climate interval that occurred back then is different from what we're going through now," King said. "It would take a pretty big change to close the basins again. But the sorts of temperatures and precipitation amounts that happened then are within the range of what is predicted for 2100. In the worst-case scenarios, a lot of things become possible.

"The range of lake-level changes that are likely to happen in the next 100 years is probably larger than the range of levels observed during the last century," he added.

WEATHER NOTE

Study links swings in North Atlantic oscillation variability to climate warming

Using a 218-year-long temperature record from a Bermuda brain coral, researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) have created the first marine-based reconstruction showing the long-term behavior of one of the most important drivers of climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a wide-ranging pressure seesaw that drives winter climate over much of North America, Europe and North Africa. Past reconstructions of the NAO have relied mainly on terrestrial, or land-based records, such as tree ring chronologies combined with ice cores and historical climate data. Those records do not fully capture oceanic processes linked to NAO variability, and short instrumental records from relatively few locations limit the understanding of ocean-atmosphere dynamics with regard to NAO behavior.

"By analyzing the coral, we were able to look at changes in the ocean relative to changes on land," said Nathalie Goodkin, lead author of the study published in the December issue of the journal Nature Geoscience. "Because they are slow growing and have long life-spans, corals can provide high resolution records that are well dated and centuries long."

As they grow, corals accrete seasonal and annual growth layers, similar to tree rings. The proportions of trace elements versus the major element (calcium) found in the layers of the skeleton largely depend on the temperature of the seawater in which it was formed. By analyzing the strontium to calcium ratio in the Bermuda brain coral, Goodkin and colleagues - WHOI scientists Konrad Hughen, Scott Doney and William Curry - were able to reconstruct monthly changes in ocean temperatures and evaluate variability of the NAO during both cold and warm periods from the Little Ice Age (1800�) to modern day.

The research team found the variability of the NAO decade-to-decade (multi-decadal scale) has been larger, swinging more wildly, during the late twentieth century than in the early 1800s, suggesting that variability is linked to the mean temperature of the Northern Hemisphere. This confirms variability previously reported in past terrestrial reconstructions.

"When the Industrial Revolution begins and atmospheric temperature becomes warmer, the NAO takes on a much stronger pattern in longer-term behavior," said Goodkin. "That was suspected before in the instrumental records, but this is the first time it has been documented in records from both the ocean and the atmosphere."

Safe driving in severe weather

The recent heavy frost will no doubt return again and again over the winter and early spring. Here is some advice for safer driving in severe weather:

* Drivers are reminded that rain and spray can reduce visibility and when the road is wet it can take up to twice as long to stop, so it makes sense to slow down when it's raining.

* Surface water may affect motorways and major A roads so we advise drivers to move slowly through any standing water and test their brakes once they're through before continuing to drive.

* High-sided vehicles are particularly affected by windy weather but strong gusts can also blow any vehicle, cyclist, motorcyclist, or horse rider off course. This can happen on open stretches of road exposed to strong crosswinds, or when passing bridges and high-sided vehicles.

* Plan journeys. Check the weather forecast, road conditions, and the route for delays before leaving home and delay travelling if the weather becomes severe.

* Drivers are also advised to carry warm clothing and an emergency pack, which includes food and water, boots, de-icer, a torch, a spade if snow is forecast, and to make sure they have plenty of fuel for the journey.

MARITIME NOTE

Time to reboot maritime’s image, retired New Orleans port exec says

Retired port executive Ron Brinson said the Charleston maritime community should take the rapt attention that Maersk’s decision to leave has thrust on the port and turn it into a better understanding of the industry.

“The public does not understand and does not appreciate the value of the port,” Brinson said Thursday to a crowded room at the Charleston Motor Carriers Association’s monthly luncheon at the Sheraton in North Charleston.

Because of that misunderstanding, Brinson said, “we have a port that has been competing with one hand tied behind its back.”

Brinson, now living in Charleston, retired from the business in 2003 after more than 15 years as president and CEO of the Port of New Orleans. A former newspaper editor and reporter in Charleston, Brinson also worked for the S.C. State Ports Authority before leaving for Louisiana.

Much of Brinson’s talk focused on the fallout caused by Maersk Line’s announcement that it would begin pulling services out of Charleston early this year and completely leave town when its contract expires at the end of 2010.

Although the Danish company’s business is extremely important to Charleston and the entire state, the community should not take the news personally, Brinson said.

“These are unemotional business decisions that we sometimes tend to make emotional,” Brinson said.

Charleston, he noted, isn’t the first community to deal with the loss of Maersk, the world’s largest steamship line and the S.C. State Ports Authority’s largest customer.

In 1999, Maersk left the Port of Long Beach in California because officials there could not or would not agree to concessions the shipping company said it needed.

It took about three years, but Long Beach recovered after losing 25% of its business to competitor Los Angeles.

Brinson also warned the group not to heap blame on the International Longshoremen’s Association. Anti-union sentiment seems to have grown stronger nationally in the wake of Detroit’s struggles, he said, and seems even more intense in Southern states, including South Carolina.

The Maersk decision also compounded those feelings because the company said it was moving because the ILA refused to let the company operate from the common-user yard at the Wando Welch Terminal, a move that would have eliminated several dozen union jobs.

People, especially in South Carolina, tend to perceive unions as a four-letter word, he said. “The reality is that unions are a four-letter word at our port, and that word is F-A-C-T.”

In Charleston, he said, union labor has a good reputation. The SPA has a good reputation also, he said, and offered this advice: “Ease up; give the ports authority a little breathing room.”

He had some advice for port executives as well. Brinson said they should be willing to try new operating models and not wait for changes — potentially misguided changes — to be forced upon the port by the General Assembly and governor.

And he suggested that the entire maritime community, including SPA staff members, spend time “rebooting” relationships with the public. If the state is giving off the perception that it does not support its port operations, steamship lines might take the cue and send their business elsewhere.

“Maybe we South Carolinians are sending the wrong message to the marketplace,” he said.

RS

Ship-in-a-bottle Kit On A Microchip

Ship-in-a-bottle Kit On A Microchip

ScienceDaily (Dec. 9, 2008) — Sometimes physicists resort to tried and trusted model-making tricks. Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Metals Research, the University of Stuttgart and the Colorado School of Mines have constructed micromachines using the same trick that model makers use to get ships into a bottle where the masts and rigging of the sailing ship are not erected until it is in the bottle.

In the same way, the scientists link the valves, pumps and stirrers of a microlaboratory to create a micro device on a chip. To do this, they introduce colloidal particles - tiny magnetizable plastic spheres - as components into the channels on the chip. A rotating magnetic field is used to link the components into larger aggregates and set them into motion as micromachines.

In the future, biologists and chemists want to avoid using bulky glass flasks, Bunsen burners and magnetic stirrers as far as possible in their experiments. Similarly to microelectronics, where electrons are steered through tiny conducting paths, they intend to perform chemical reactions in microfluidic systems, that is, chambers and channels just a few micrometers in diameter. These "labs on a chip" will then allow DNA sequences or blood samples to be analyzed much more quickly and more efficiently. As they only require tiny amounts of liquids, this approach costs much less than traditional methods, which require larger quantities of materials. These micro analytical systems would also be transportable, because their core parts take up very little space. Paramedics, for example, could analyze blood samples at the site of an accident.

Researchers working with Clemens Bechinger who is a Professor at the University of Stuttgart and a Fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Metals Research, and David Marr, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines, have now found a new way to equip these miniaturized laboratories with moving parts and how to drive the tiny machines. They introduce colloidal particles, tiny plastic spheres with a diameter of just about five micrometers, into the channels and cavities on the chip.

As the particles contain iron oxide, they group together when they are magnetized by an external magnetic field. The scientists construct the magnetic field with four coils so that the microparticles are literally remote controlled and form diamond shapes or cog wheels. "The shape they assemble into depends crucially on the geometry of the channels," explains Tobias Sawetzki, who a doctoral student is working on the project. The microparticles then remain in this shape as long as the magnetic field is switched on.

The geometry also determines the function of the aggregates. By tipping backwards and forwards, a rhombus creates openings and acts like a valve. On the other hand, if it rotates in a chamber with two inflows, it mixes the incoming liquids. The micro stirrer is also driven by a magnetic field that rotates clockwise or anticlockwise parallel to the chip. In the same way, the researchers in Stuttgart roll a cog wheel through a channel with a serrated wall. The cog wheel, which completely shuts the channel off, agitates liquid back and forth and only in combination with two valves, acts like a pump.

"Compared to other approaches to equipping microlaboratories with moving parts, our ship-in-a-bottle technique has several advantages," says David Marr. Some scientists use pneumatic systems to pump liquids through microchannels, for example. However, this requires each component to be connected with a separate hose to the outside so that it can be supplied with compressed air. This is very complex and limits the integration density on microfluidic devices considerably, i.e. the total number of components on the chip.

With the new method, it is possible to accommodate up to 5,000 pumps on one square centimetre. Moreover, the new approach does not rely on elastic materials as are required for pneumatic pumps. "It is much easier to produce suitable chips for applications if they only consist of a single material, silicon, if at all possible," says Clemens Bechinger. As the electrical control components like the mini-coils can be fabricated based on silicon, it would be ideal to make the microchannels from the same material. This would allow for integration of all the components on one chip, as in microelectronics," says Bechinger.

Currently the researchers are still using large coils, so that all the components are driven by a single magnetic field and they all move in time with each other. However, this need not be a disadvantage as processes in many applications run in parallel; for example when the pharmaceutical industry searches for a new active ingredient amongst many thousands of substances. Furthermore, the researchers can choose the geometry of the channels so skilfully that different aggregates fulfil completely different functions in the same magnetic field. This means that the Stuttgart physicists’ method offers the option of driving a complex network of individual, standalone components with only one magnetic field.

WEATHER NOTE

National Weather Service recommends making preparations before the storm

Wausau Daily Herald

Now that winter is in full swing, the National Weather Service is reminding people to take precautions before a storm hits.

Items that should be kept at home and work:
• Flashlight and extra batteries.
• Battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and commercial radio.
• Extra food and water. High energy food or food that requires no cooking is best.
• First-aid supplies.
• Emergency heating source, such as a fireplace or space heater -- make sure you have proper ventilation.

If possible, avoid driving during the storm. If you do:
• Check and winterize your vehicle before the winter season begins.
• Carry a winter storm survival kit that includes: blankets/sleeping bags, flashlight with extra batteries, first-aid kit, knife, high-calorie non-perishable food, extra clothing to keep dry, sand or cat litter, shovel, windshield scraper and brush, tool kit, and booster cables,
• Keep your gas tank near full to avoid ice in the tank and fuel lines.
• Try not to travel alone.
• Let others know your timetable and primary and alternate routes.

Where will NOAA go under the Obama Administration? OSU scientist could play a big role.

Andrew Freeman of the Washington Post blog “Capital Weather Gang” discussed potential changes at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in his Monday, December 8th post. Why is this relevant to readers of H2ONCoast? Well, I am a Sea Grant Extension Specialist. Oregon Sea Grant’s federal mothership is NOAA, providing funds and guidance to how we do our jobs in Oregon. NOAA is not only important to the 30 Sea Grant programs around the country, but it guides research and applications to the study of climate, ocean science, fisheries, and weather among many other areas important to people living on the coast. Anyone who follows H2ONC should see that these topics are important ones to my own work and the work of many others in Oregon Sea Grant and OSU in general. Anywhere you hear words like Sea Grant, oceanography, drought, coastal zone management, coastal hazards, storms, marine fisheries, earth observation, weather or climate in the same sentence as government or research, you can bet that NOAA has something significant to do with it.

NOAA, however, is not a very “sexy” agency. It has few high-profile perks for the directors at the helm–other than rides in a hurricane hunting aircraft or first views of a new weather satellite’s output. Yet as I’ve said before, it is is immensely important to many. Here’s what Andrew Freeman had to say about the agency: Similar to the EPA and Interior Department, NOAA sits at the intersection of science and policy when it comes to numerous environmental issues — particularly climate change and oceans management.

Freeman noted that the past eight years have not been kind to NOAA or its programs: Following a turbulent eight years under President Bush, which featured allegations of political interference with NOAA scientific research, as well as cost overruns on a major environmental satellite program, the next few years are slated to be a rebuilding phase for NOAA; similar to a sports franchise that has hit a rough patch and needs an infusion of new talent and a morale boost. The question is whether the agency will come out a winner next season, or if it will struggle under new management. Much of that depends on who is selected to run the agency.

In a telephone interview on Friday, former NOAA Administrator D. James Baker, who led the agency for eight years under President Clinton, said NOAA is growing in importance due to the increasingly serious nature of environmental problems such as climate change.

Baker continued, “NOAA is the agency that monitors the pulse of the Earth and that told us that we are in danger because of climate change,” Baker said. According to him, the ideal candidate for administrator must possess a combination of scientific and political acumen, which is relatively rare. For example, both he and Conrad Lautenbacher, the most recent NOAA administrator who recently left that position, had backgrounds in oceanography among other scientific fields, as well as Washington experience.”

Baker dropped some names in play for that top slot. I’ve noted one that is a prominent OSU scientist.

• Leon Panetta, former Democratic congressman from California, former chief of staff to President Bill Clinton and chair of the Pew Oceans Commission.
• Former Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt
• Ralph Cicerone, President of the National Academy of Sciences
• Marsha McNutt, CEO, Monterey Aquarium Research Institute
• Jane Lubchenco, marine biologist and zoologist at Oregon State University
• Rosina Bierbaum, Dean of the University of Michigan’s School of Natural Resources and co-director of a forthcoming World Bank report on climate change and development
• Warren Washington, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
• Michael S. Bruno, dean of the Charles V. Schaefer, Jr. School of Engineering
• Richard Anthes, the director of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
• Eileen Shea, currently the director of a NOAA center in Hawaii.

So, we will keep our eyes open on this one selection. While there are lots of important appointments and changes going on in Washington that make big news headlines, the “small ones” may count as very significant for communities as far away from the D.C. Beltway as the North Coast of Oregon. Let’s hope that this new administration’s choice of a new NOAA administrator means a new page for NOAA and its myriad locally-significant programs.

MARITIME NOTE

New maritime safety measures

By STAFF REPORTER
New measures have been drawn up which will improve safety measures for passengers travelling on Cyprus boats.

Minister of Communications and Works Nikos Nikolaides has welcomed the adoption of a new package of measures on maritime safety by the European Union Transport, Telecommunications and Energy (TTE) Council.

Speaking after the meeting, the minister said that the package strengthens the levels of vessel safety, as well as the protection of maritime environment and enhances the passengers’ rights regarding maritime transport.

“Being a country of important maritime infrastructure and know-how, [Cyprus] plays a leading role in shaping European maritime policy," he said.

"Cyprus, with its know-how and experience in the field of maritime transport, participated actively in drafting the third package of measures on maritime safety, since some of our positions, which aim at reinforcing the international maritime legislative framework and the international conventions, have been adopted."

A resolution on the European Data Center for the identification of vessels was also taken up.

Nikolaides called on the EU Commission, the European Maritime Safety Agency and EU member states to intensify their efforts for the conclusion of the European Data Center within the next six months. (KYPE)

Ship firm calls jail term for tanker crew a 'disgrace'

SEOUL (AFP) — Managers of a Hong Kong supertanker whose crew chiefs were jailed over South Korea's worst oil spill have blasted the decision as a "disgrace and insult" to the world shipping community.

A South Korean appeal court, reversing a lower court decision, on Wednesday jailed the Indian captain Jasprit Chawla and chief officer Syam Chetan after ruling they were negligent in minimising the spillage.

The accident happened in December 2007 when a barge carrying a construction crane broke free after a cable to one of two tugs snapped in rough seas.

The barge rammed the anchored 147,000-ton tanker Hebei Spirit, holing it in three places and spilling 10,900 tons of crude oil.

V.Ships, which says it is the world's largest ship manager, said in a statement Thursday the court's decision "will surely go down as one of the most disgraceful examples of a miscarriage of justice in a 'supposedly' advanced nation state.

"For Captain Chawla and Chief Officer Chetan to be sentenced to prison terms and led from the court in handcuffs is a disgrace and insult to the whole shipping industry," it added.

The case has sparked anger among shipping operators and the International Transport Workers Federation (ITF), who insist the tanker crew were blameless.

The lower court in June had found them not guilty but prosecutors appealed the decision.

The International Association of Independent Tanker Owners has expressed "extreme dismay and disappointment" at Wednesday's ruling.

V.Ships said the ITF and its international membership are now "questioning whether it is safe for its members to travel on ships to Korea."

The lower court blamed barge operator Samsung Heavy Industries, part of the country's biggest business group, and the Korean tugboat skippers for the spill which fouled scores of marine farms and miles of beaches southwest of Seoul.

The appeal court in the central city of Daejeon agreed the Korean operators were mainly at fault and confirmed jail sentences on the tugboat skippers. But it said the tanker crew failed to take prompt action to abate the spillage.

Chawla was sentenced to 18 months in prison and fined 20 million won (14,000 dollars) while chief officer Syam Chetan was sentenced to eight months and fined 10 million won.

Their lawyers said they would appeal to the supreme court.

The ship's owner, Hong Kong-registered Hebei Ocean Shipping, was fined 30 million won.

V.Ships said the appeal court had relied on findings by the Korean Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST ) which meant that "technically flawed, unreliable and unjust evidence" had been submitted to judges.

"In submitting their report, the KMST has demonstrated both its incompetence and an obvious desire to find fault with the officers of the Hebei Spirit," the management firm said.

"This blatant and totally unjustifiable case of criminalisation of a profession that we all rely upon for our international trade must not go unanswered by the international community and all those in the shipping industry.

CHRISTMAS AT SEA"
By Robert Louis Stevenson (1850-94).



The sheets were frozen hard, and they cut the naked hand;
The decks were like a slide, where a seamen scarce could stand;
The wind was a nor'wester, blowing squally off the sea;
And cliffs and spouting breakers were the only things a-lee.

They heard the surf a-roaring before the break of day;
But 'twas only with the peep of light we saw how ill we lay.
We tumbled every hand on deck instanter, with a shout,
And we gave her the maintops'l, and stood by to go about.

All day we tacked and tacked between the South Head and the North;
All day we hauled the frozen sheets, and got no further forth;
All day as cold as charity, in bitter pain and dread,
For very life and nature we tacked from head to head.

We gave the South a wider berth, for there the tide-race roared;
But every tack we made we brought the North Head close aboard:
So's we saw the cliffs and houses, and the breakers running high,
And the coastguard in his garden, with his glass against his eye.

The frost was on the village roofs as white as ocean foam;
The good red fires were burning bright in every 'long-shore home;
The windows sparkled clear, and the chimneys volleyed out;
And I vow we sniffed the victuals as the vessel went about.

The bells upon the church were rung with a mighty jovial cheer;
For it's just that I should tell you how (of all days in the year)
This day of our adversity was blessed Christmas morn,
And the house above the coastguard's was the house where I was born.

O well I saw the pleasant room, the pleasant faces there,
My mother's silver spectacles, my father's silver hair;
And well I saw the firelight, like a flight of homely elves,
Go dancing round the china-plates that stand upon the shelves.

And well I knew the talk they had, the talk that was of me,
Of the shadow on the household and the son that went to sea;
And O the wicked fool I seemed, in every kind of way,
To be here and hauling frozen ropes on blessed Christmas Day.

They lit the high sea-light, and the dark began to fall.
"All hands to loose topgallant sails," I heard the captain call.
"By the Lord, she'll never stand it," our first mate Jackson, cried.
..."It's the one way or the other, Mr. Jackson," he replied.

She staggered to her bearings, but the sails were new and good,
And the ship smelt up to windward just as though she understood.
As the winter's day was ending, in the entry of the night,
We cleared the weary headland, and passed below the light.

And they heaved a mighty breath, every soul on board but me,
As they saw her nose again pointing handsome out to sea;
But all that I could think of, in the darkness and the cold,
Was just that I was leaving home and my folks were growing old.

2 More days til Christmas!
RS

Will the Opening of the Northwest Passage Transform Global Shipping Anytime Soon?

Will the Opening of the Northwest Passage Transform Global Shipping Anytime Soon?

With the melting of Arctic Ocean ice, the fabled waterway between Europe and Asia has been open to shipping the past two summers--or has it?

It is said that the Inuit have many words for snow, but when it comes to the Northwest Passage only one type of frozen water matters: multiyear ice. It can slice through the hull of a ship like a knife through butter and it persists in the passage's waters despite unprecedented warming in the Arctic Ocean, thwarting shippers in search of a shortcut between Europe and Asia.

The fabled Northwest Passage has made headlines ever since it thawed last year for the first time. For three centuries the quest for an expedited route between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans rivaled today's space race, with European superpowers vying for the prize. Hundreds of sailors and countless expeditions ventured into Canada's Arctic waters, including such naval luminaries as Sir Francis Drake, Captain James Cook and the ill-fated Henry Hudson, who left his name—and lost his life—on the Canadian bay that marks its entrance.

Slide Show: View satellite images of the possible Northwest Passage

Now, with the Arctic's sea ice shrinking at a rate of 10 percent per decade, this coveted shipping lane has opened for business—but shippers are not rushing to use it. The reason: as fate would have it, global warming appears to also be increasing the amount of potentially deadly multiyear ice chunks lurking in the newly opened pathway.

Sea of Ice
"The thing is, the Canadian Arctic has a totally different ice regime than the Arctic Ocean," says Stephen Howell, a climatologist at the Interdisciplinary Center on Climate Change at the University of Waterloo in Ontario.

In fact, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago acts as a "drain trap" for ship-wrecking multiyear ice, Howell says. This year, for example, when the first-year ice in the passage had melted, it opened the way for multiyear ice (MYI) from the Queen Elizabeth Islands to flow into and clog the Northwest Passage. "We call it a 'MYI invasion' and that's going to be the threat as we transition to an ice-free summertime Arctic," he says.

"The first-year ice, that's sort of like Swiss cheese and you can just plow through it," Howell says. This ice freezes over a winter and is seldom thicker than three feet (one meter). Often, first-year ice melts the summer after it's frozen, but if it doesn't, it becomes thicker the following winter and becomes multiyear ice. "The multiyear ice isn't like Swiss cheese; it's solid and trouble" for ships that collide with it, he says.

"In places it was three meters (nearly 10 feet) thick, but in other places we had a five-meter (16.5-foot) drill bit and we still did not reach the bottom," says Bruno Tremblay, an atmospheric and oceanic scientist at McGill University in Montreal, who was taking ice cores of multiyear ice in the Canadian territory of Nunavut's Viscount Melville Sound last year.

"It's very dangerous," adds Ivana Kubat, an engineer at the National Research Council's Canadian Hydraulics Centre in Ottawa. "If a lower type of vessel hits a piece of multiyear ice, then the vessel can sink depending on the speed and damage." One study showed that multiyear ice was to blame for 74 percent of the damage suffered by ships traveling in the Canadian Arctic between 1976 and 2007.

A Route to Dodge Danger?
Still, there are several ways through the Northwest Passage. The southern, shallow and circuitous route through Peel Sound in Nunavut has been open the past three summers, thanks to warmer temperatures. "That's because that region is mostly first-year ice so with warmer temperatures it melts and it clears," Howell says.

But the northern route, which runs through the McClure Strait in a straight shot from Baffin Bay west of Greenland to the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska, is another story. "Everyone wants the McClure route because it's quicker, it saves money," he says.

The McClure route opened last year, and once before that, in 1998. The European Space Agency reported that the strait opened up this year—open water was visible from space—although it wasn't safe for ship crossings.

"You could in principle navigate through it [this year], avoiding ice floes, and looking for the narrow opening, but the wind can move the ice around within hours so it can be a bit tricky," says Christian Melsheimer, a researcher at the Institute of Environmental Physics at the University of Bremen in Germany, whose research group produces daily maps of sea ice. "Some interpret this as 'the passage is open'; some would rather wait until the ice concentration is near zero percent across the whole passage."

The minimum sea ice cover in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago shrunk by 6.6 percent and the hazardous multiyear ice by 8.6 percent each decade between 1979 and last year. So the amount of sea ice in the region is indeed decreasing, just not in the right way for the Northwest Passage to become a viable alternative to the Panama Canal anytime soon.

"Obviously, if the climate is warming then you would have less first-year ice," says Kubat. "But, based on our analysis of our work, there is ice [in the passage], and with some melt of first-year ice you have more multiyear ice in the shipping lanes."

Global Impact
Climate models predict that even as sea ice disappears from the Arctic Ocean in the summer, the northern part of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago will remain a stronghold for multiyear ice. That means hard, ship-wrecking multiyear ice in all the channels of the Northwest Passage.

"Even in 2040, when there is no more summer ice in the Arctic, the archipelago will still be clogged with ice," Tremblay says.

As a result, ships may be able to sail plumb across the Arctic Ocean to Eurasia before they can navigate the Northwest Passage to ply the waters along North America's Arctic coast safely. But by that time any gains from a shipping shortcut will have been dramatically offset by potential losses elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere due to the effects of climate change. "There are certainly some positive benefits at least in the short term economically," says Walt Meier, a research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., "but the negative impacts, I think, ultimately outweigh that."

The U.S. Southwest, for instance, will dry up; ocean circulation, jet streams and storm tracks will probably all change, he says. "There definitely will be impacts on all the U.S. and Europe and Asia," Meier notes, "and at least [on] all of the Northern Hemisphere due to the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic."

WEATHER NOTE

Bad Weather Makes for a Long Day

A strong jet stream can add or subtract microseconds from a day

By Keren Blankfeld Schultz

Do you ever feel like some days drag on longer than others? That feeling may be psychological, but actual day length really does fluctuate--by a fraction of a millisecond. (A millisecond is one thousandth of a second)

The length of a day, which is measured by the time it takes Earth to rotate once on its axis, can be measured to an accuracy of about 10 microseconds, or 10 millionths of a second. Earth's rotational rate depends on the distribution of mass across its surface. This includes the roiling aggregation of gases that comprise the atmosphere, the solid earth itself, its fluid core, and the sloshing ocean. For example, when a major earthquake shifts the planet's mass, it can slow or speed the day by as much as a few thousandths of a second.

In fact, the Indonesian Sumatra earthquake in December 2004 that spawned a deadly tsunami moved so much water that it slightly changed our planet's shape and sped its rotation by 2.68 microseconds, or nearly three millionths of a second.

This change in rotational speed, though it is minimal, has been observed for centuries. In 1695 English astronomer Sir Edmund Halley (who also discovered the eponymous periodic comet) hypothesized that the moon was accelerating in its orbit. In reality, Earth's rotation was slowing down, making it appear that the moon was gathering speed.

Since then, scientists have used various methods to measure our planet's rotation, including astronomical devices such as the sundial as well as satellites and lunar observations. And these days scientists have placed thousands of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers around the world that can track Earth's orientation to within a few millimeters, says geophysicist Richard Gross of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, Calif. JPL keeps an in-house database of Earth's rotation dating back to 1962.

Gross says that the most important processes affecting day length are changes in the weather, especially unusual variations in the strength and direction of the winds, which bring on alterations in the global circulation of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, the vast, high-altitude wind currents known as jet streams, which arise from the differences in temperature between the warm tropics and cooler high latitudes, are responsible for shortening or speeding the day.

Perhaps it's not surprising, then, that global warming may actually speed the day, a fact noted by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In one study published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2007, scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, estimated the mass redistribution resulting from ocean warming would shorten the day by 120 microseconds, or nearly one tenth of a millisecond, over the next two centuries.

Such changes—whether caused by global warming or earthquakes—remain too small to be reliably detected at present, Gross says. After all, there are 86,400 seconds in a 24-hour day and billions of microseconds. Even with GPS, predicting changes in day length remains as difficult as forecasting the weather.

On April 17, 2008, for instance, the day lasted 1.1686 milliseconds longer than the norm According to Gross, the excess varies: Just a few years ago, days were about three milliseconds longer. And all those milliseconds add up: Over the course of a year, scientists estimate that the fluctuations add about a second.

But don't worry, scientists are on top of the phenomenon. The National Institute of Standards and Technology in Boulder, Colo., occasionally adds a "leap second" to the atomic clocks used to standardize time. The last such update took place on January 1, 2006. There's plenty of time to adjust your calendars: "If the excess length of day continues to be about 1.2 milliseconds, another leap second won't be needed for about three years," Gross wrote in an e-mail.

MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard Rescues 2

ALAMEDA, Calif. - The Coast Guard rescued a man and a woman stranded onboard a 17-foot pleasure craft at Chipps Island. At approximately 6:50 a.m., Coast Guard Sector San Francisco received a cell phone call from the owners of a pleasure craft that their vessel was disabled and run aground. The people reported they were not in distress but were unsure of their location and needed assistance.

From descriptions by the passengers onboard, the Coast Guard was able to determine their location. At approximately 9 a.m., Coast Guard Sector San Francisco lost communication with the stranded people, and immediately launched an HH-65 Dolphin helicopter, from Air Station San Francisco, to the scene. By 9:35 a.m., the helicopter crew arrived on scene, located the stranded passengers and hoisted them to the helicopter.(Coast Guard video shot by Air Station San Francisco)

At approximately 9 a.m., Coast Guard Sector San Francisco lost communication with the stranded people, and immediately launched an HH-65 Dolphin helicopter, from Air Station San Francisco, to the scene. By 9:35 a.m., the helicopter crew arrived on scene, located the stranded passengers and hoisted them to the helicopter.

See more videos at Great Americans

RS

A new approach in tsunami-early warning

A new approach in tsunami-early warning

The newly implemented Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean, GITEWS, goes into operation today and with this, the system enters its final phase of optimisation.

As foreseen, the system was officially handed over to the BMKG (Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia) by the President of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, slightly less than four years after the catastrophe of 2004.

"We are very pleased to put the Tsunami Early Warning System into operation today, exactly on schedule", explains Professor Reinhard Huettl, Chair of the Scientific Executive Board of the responsible GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences. "All partners have, through enormous effort and dedication, contributed to achieving today's result. And for this, I would like to sincerely thank all those involved".

This system differs from previous Tsunami Warning Systems through new scientific procedures and technologies. Due to the unique geological situation in Indonesia it turned out that the systems used up to now, such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning System, for example, are not at all optimal for Indonesia. Earthquakes in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Indonesia occur along a subduction zone, the Sunda Arc, which extends in the form of an arch from the north western corner of Sumatra to Flores in the east of Indonesia. Should a tsunami occur here, the waves, in an extreme case, will reach the coast within 20 minutes, so that only very little time remains to warn the areas at risk. This prevailing situation formed the basis when developing the concept for the entire system.

So new procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, the modelling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been applied in the Warning System. In particular, the direct incorporation of abroad variety of different sensors for a secure determination of a tsunami is a big challenge.

Progress in the scientific seismology

More than 90% of all tsunamis result from strong earthquakes. The catastrophe of December 2004 was, with a magnitude of 9.3, the second largest earthquake ever registered. One quarter of an hour after the quake, the tsunami reached the province of Banda Aceh and resulted alone here in the death of more than 140,000 people. In total approximately a quarter million people lost their lives.

A fast and accurate determination of the earthquake parameters (location, magnitude, source depth) is, therefore, essential for a fast Tsunami Early Warning System. A compact measuring network shortens, on the one hand, the time for the shock wave to reach the measuring instrument. On the other hand, however, it is extremely difficult to register and to evaluate the signals of strong earthquakes in the near field. New measuring and evaluation procedures were, therefore, developed for GITEWS.

SeisComP3 is the name of the software programme developed by scientists at the GFZ which, within minutes, determines the location and the magnitude of an earthquake. In this way several strong earthquakes and their individual parameters could already be determined within a good two minutes. The entire seismological network in Indonesia currently avails of over 120 stations. This evaluation software sets new standards worldwide. SeisComP3 is also meanwhile used by other neighbouring states of the Indian Ocean, for example in the Indian Early Warning System. And in addition this software is further applied on the Maldives, in Pakistan, in Thailand and in South Africa with other countries ready to follow.

Tide gauge measurements and deformation

In deep water a tsunami spreads at the speed of jet aircraft. The tsunami first slows down in shallow water and, in coastal areas, can swell to waves of up to 30 metres high. It is, therefore, extremely important to detect a tsunami in advance, for example at an offshore island, before the wave reaches the mainland. Through the GITEWS-Project, within the framework of UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) a total of 9 measuring stations have been erected in the Indian Ocean. Thus, not only reliable sea level data are available for the coast of Indonesia, but also for the neighbouring states of the Indian Ocean. The data are freely accessible in data bases.

During the catastrophic earthquake of 2004 a horizontal and vertical displacement of several decimetres to meters was evident even at a distance of some hundred kilometres from the quake. The direction of this resulting shift gives reference to the mechanism of the earthquake break and thus to the possible tsunami potential and the expected hazard. In order to determine the vertical and horizontal displacement immediately, all tide gauges within GITEWS have been additionally equipped with GPS receivers - this too is a completely new component of a Tsunami Early Warning System.

GPS Buoys: A new measuring instrument for Tsunamis

Not every earthquake generates a tsunami. For this reason it must be determined at sea whether or not an earthquake has actually triggered the deadly wave. For this purpose underwater measuring units are usually used where a pressure gauge is employed to record a tsunami. If a tsunami passes the pressure gauge the data are sent to buoys at the surface and passed on from there to a the central warning centre.

If the ocean bottom units lie too closely to quake source, the instruments cannot differentiate between an earth quake and a tsunami wave and could possibly release a false alarm. Consequently, the buoys do not only function as a relay station but also as an independent measuring instruments for tsunami detection. GFZ scientists already used GPS-antenna on buoys to determine sea motion and sea levels. In the GITEWS this new development is also used to detect tsunami waves which with speeds of up to 800 km/h and wavelengths of 200 kilometres in the open sea, are still relatively low. Innovative measuring and filter procedures allow the normal sea motion data to be suppressed. A centimetre-exact determination of the rise in the sea level remains and herewith also the early detection of a tsunami wave.

Currently 2 of the planned 10 buoy-systems are installed and a further 4 buoys are waiting in the port of Jakarta for installation.

Simulations

As the sensor network supplies data at some few points only, simulations are needed, in order to synthesize an overall picture of the situation. In this way, with the help of computer model for the ascertainment of arrival times and wave heights as well as information on the inhabitants and infrastructure, fast risk estimations can be reached which in turn support the decision to issue a warning.

On the basis of the extremely short advance warning time the computer simulations are pre-calculated with the help of the new software TsunAWI which is based on unstructured triangle lattices. This modelling system developed at the Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research depicts the wave propagation and flooding in a, to date, unique way. A multitude of scenarios covers the possible tsunami events, so that in the case of an emergency a pre-computed scenario serves to help depict the actual real situation.

The data base, which evaluates the different measuring data with mathematical methods putting this, in turn, in relation to possible scenarios (so-called matching), represents a world-wide innovation. Since data from the different measuring systems complement each other, a precise matching can be made within seconds, and an exact description of the position can be given. The ever improving data availability during a tsunami event continuously stabilizes and completes the picture of actual prevailing condition.

Warning Centre and Decision-making Support

All available data, information and modelling flow finally together into a Decision Support System (DSS). The German Aerospace Center, DLR, has developed this system, which is used in reaching a decision on whether a tsunami warning is to be disseminated or not.

All sensor data are gathered within the DSS, all instruments are controlled and steered from here and it is also here that the synthesis of all data follow with the pre-computed simulations as well as the creation of the warning. The responsible person on-duty can on the basis of the available information, very quickly get an overview of the situation and generate suggestions on how to reach a decision. The depiction of the situation together with the recommendations for action is shown on several monitors.

DSS is geared to application in a crisis situation and is arranged in such a way that, also, under high time pressure and stress, fast and reliably decisions can be made. Extensive data bases hold, in addition to general geo-data, advanced processed risk information and hazard maps. This system developed here, is unique in its conception and complexity and is not comparable with any other system world-wide.

GITEWS has, from the beginning on, been developed as an integrating system, incorporating not only the data of the German sensor systems, but also sensor data from Indonesia and the other donor countries. Therefore, all interfaces to the sensor- and dissemination system are based on international standards, in order to guarantee for an interlaced and at the same time open system.

Capacity Building

For the technical operation, maintenance of the instruments and the advancement of the system, scientists and technical personnel need to be further educated. This has already been done parallel to the construction of the system through training of Indonesian scientists and engineers in Germany, as well as through various training programs on the part-components of the Early Warning System in Indonesia.

GITEWS cooperates closely with the authorities responsible for early warning, in order to convert the warnings into a clear decision-making basis, decision-making aids and instructions to handle and to pass these onto the population as quick as possible (warning and reaction chain). This interface is crucial for an Early Warning System and represents an enormous challenge in particular for the local governments at the district level, in whose hands the responsibility lies. Within the framework of the national responsibility in the case of natural catastrophe Indonesia has begun to create a suitable legal framework.

The introduction of a Tsunami Early Warning System at the local level requires the development of preparation plans. Their development, in particular for urban centres such as in Padang or in South Bali must be based on scientifically founded risk analyses, but also on political decision processes. Activities of the disaster prevention and preventive measures such as building standards or the creation of area utilisation plans are included here.

The probably most important aspect of early warning is the actual target group for the early warning, i.e. the population in the endangered regions. In order to allow effective measures to be taken at all with extremely short early warning times, the consciousness of the people with respect to the latent endangerment and possible preventive measures must be awakened and strengthened (Awareness), and it must be assured for that in the case of emergency the population reacts correctly (Preparedness). This is achieved by regular evacuation exercises and information sessions as well as by the constant teaching of facts in schools.

International consortium

For the construction of the Early Warning System in Indonesia different cooperations with donor countries such as Japan, China, France and the USA were incorporated so as to not only integrate the data of the German and Indonesian components, but to avail of all available sensors. The German activities essentially concentrated on Indonesia, but also in neighbouring states such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Yemen, Iran, Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa components and sensor technology as well as software have already been installed.

The integration of the German-Indonesian contribution and the contributions of further neighbouring states into an overall system for the Indian Ocean takes place under the coordination of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the UNESCO.

Additionally there are efforts to form a Global Early Warning System in which not only working groups from the Indian ocean participate, but also from the Northeast-Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea, the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean. Tasks in the coming two-year optimisation phase

The construction and employment of the complex GITEWS in a tectonically complicated area was and is scientifically, technically and organizationally an enormous challenge. In the now to follow two-year phase of the project the most important steps of the system optimisation will take place. "All components are assembled, even if the sensor network still has to be further consolidated", says Reinhard Huettl, "and only in the daily operation with the interplay of the different components will it become clear where and how individual elements need to be adjusted."

As with the launching of a newly constructed ship, now the interaction of the component parts need to be optimised, the personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation need to be dealt with. To date individual components (for example the earthquake module) in the provisional Warning Centre of the BMG in Jakarta have been used. With the completion of a new building, the subsequent installation of the necessary communication and computing hardware, and the implementation of the software components during the past weeks, the system is now available, for the first time, in its designed form.

Directly after the catastrophe of 26. December 2004, the German Federal Government commissioned the Helmholtz-Association, represented by the Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, with the development and implementation of an Early Warning System for Tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. Funds amounting to a total of 45 Million Euro represent the contribution of the Federal Government within the framework of the Tsunami Victim Aid.

Even with a perfectly working warning system a natural occurrence such as the tsunami of 2004 cannot be prevent and such catastrophes will continue to cause victims. However, with an Early Warning System the impact of such a natural catastrophe can certainly be minimised. And that is the goal of GITEWS.

WEATHER NOTE

NOVEMBER TORNADO AWARENESS MONTH

Sep 25th, 2005- Tornado on the north side of Carthage, Leake Co.

Governor Haley Barbor has declaired that November is "Tornado Awareness Month" for the state of Mississippi. Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) and the National Weather Service will team up and conduct tornado safety programs across the state during the first two weeks of November. The purpose of this is to call attention to the secondary peak severe weather season that begins in the late fall and to review preparedness measures. November historically has been a very active month for severe weather and tornadoes. The graph below shows the two peaks in tornadoes across Mississippi.

Below is a list of several significant November tornado events which have occurred in the recent past:

November 21-22, 1992 - Large tornado outbreak, 14 total tornadoes with 1 long track F4 (128 miles), 5th longest. This tornado is more widely known as the Brandon Tornado. A total of 12 fatalities occurred during that horrific night November 24, 2001 - Large tornado outbreak, 14 total tornadoes, 2 F4s and 2F3s. One of the F4s was the Fairfield Tornado. A total of 7 fatalities occurred across the region that early morning -Event Summary November 10-11, 2002 - Veterans Day Outbreak, MS was on the southern end of the event but still had 7 total tornadoes - Event Summary November 24, 2004 - Large tornado outbreak, 21 total tornadoes, 1 fatality - Event Summary November 15, 2006 - Tornado event across southeast MS, 2F3s - Event Summary If a tornado warning is issued for your area: Go to the lowest level of your home and take shelter in an inner hallway or smaller inner room without windows, such as a closet or bathroom. If you are in a mobile home or other portable structure, evacuate the structure, even if it is equipped with tie-downs. Take shelter in a building with a strong foundation, or if one is not available, lie in a ditch or low-lying area a safe distance away from the structure. Tornadoes cannot change elevation quickly enough to pick someone up out of a ditch, especially a deep ditch or culvert. If you are in a vehicle or driving a vehicle, seek shelter immediately. Do not continue driving. Tornadoes can change direction very quickly and can lift a vehicle and toss it in the air. Get out of the vehicle and take shelter in a nearby building or lie in a ditch or low-lying area away from the vehicle. Because many tornadoes occur at night, check your local weather forecast before going to bed and have a source of receiving weather warnings that will wake you whenever there is a severe-weather threat. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather radios sell for approximately $30 to $70 and sound an alarm whenever severe weather is approaching. The radios broadcast severe weather watches and warnings directly from the National Weather Service. Some of these radios can also be programmed to receive emergency information for specific counties. If you do not have a weather radio or cannot purchase one, it is recommended that you keep a battery-powered radio to be able to hear weather watches and warnings as local radio stations broadcast them. You are also invited to contact the National Weather Service for interviews, information, or answers to any questions you may have. In many instances, we are also able to present severe weather awareness programs to civic and industrial organizations, schools, amateur radio clubs, and hospital staffs. For more information, contact any of the following listed below. Or click HERE for a map indicating the contact for each service area. Stephen Wilkinson, Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Office Jackson, MS 601-965-4638 ext 223 Richard Okulski, Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Office Memphis, TN 901-544-0405 or 0401 ext 223 Gary Beeler, Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Office Mobile, AL 251-633-5456 ext 223 Frank Revitte, Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Office New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA 985-645-0899 ext 223< Greg Flynn MEMA External Affairs 601-933-6652

MARITIME NOTE

Houston port director named 2008 Maritime Person of the Year

The Greater Houston Port Bureau and the Marine Exchange of the West Gulf have chosen Tom Kornegay, executive director of the Port of Houston Authority, to be their 2008 Maritime Person of the Year. He will be honored at a gala event scheduled for Nov. 15.

Kornegay has served as executive director of the Port of Houston Authority since April 1992. Prior to that, he was the PHA’s managing director for five years. Kornegay joined the port in 1972 and worked his way up through the ranks, serving in the engineering department for 15 years before being appointed managing director.

Kornegay learned on the job, consulting with port people on the East and West coasts who were building the first generation of true container terminals.

When he first arrived at Houston, Kornegay said, “We had a ship at every dock every day,” filling something more than 30 berths at the port’s general cargo docks, also called City Docks. Now, although the port handles far more tonnage, it sees perhaps six to 10 ships on any given day. Much of that tonnage and those ship calls go to the container terminals at Barbours Cut and Bayport rather than the general cargo docks, although steel and other breakbulk cargoes are still handled there.

“Over the years containerization has just completely changed the way we do business,” Kornegay said.

The port began planning its second major container terminal, Bayport, in 1997, 25 years after beginning Barbours Cut. Kornegay has overseen this project too, although he now works with consultants and a staff of engineers.

When he moved into the ranks of port management the American Association of Port Authorities was an important resource for him, Kornegay said, and he still works with friends and colleagues he met at port management seminars early on. The International Association of Ports and Harbors played a similar role.

Since those days, Kornegay has been the chairman of AAPA and the president of IAPH, and he has served on many other committees and boards over the years. Among many other honors, Kornegay was named 2008 Houston Area Engineer of the Year.

“The thing that has kept me here is the fact that my job changes all the time. I’m not doing the same thing that I was three years ago. I’m one of those crazy guys that likes change,” Kornegay said.

Containerization is not the only profound change Kornegay has witnessed in the maritime industry. For example, “two decades ago,” he said, “we didn’t have an environmental department.”

Once Houston accepted the role of environmental steward, he said, “we went from zero to the head of the pack pretty fast,” beginning with a decades-long widening and deepening project in the Houston Ship Channel over the course of which the port pledged not to do anything that would degrade Galveston Bay. The port strove to use every cubic yard of material from that project in a beneficial way, Kornegay said.

Houston worked with resource agencies such as the National Marine Fisheries and the Environmental Protection Agency and came up with a plan to dispose of the dredged material by building marshes that eventually totaled about 4,000 acres. The actual widening and deepening has been finished but marsh creation will continue, Kornegay said.

“From there, we went to our environmental management system. Our maintenance people have become ingrained into the system. They recycle; they do things to prevent spills; they follow the environmental management system principles. Through that program we became the first port in the U.S. to reach ISO 14001 standards,” Kornegay said.

The port’s central maintenance facility and Barbours Cut Terminal have also joined the EPA’s Performance Track program, in which members pledge to go above and beyond environmental regulation requirements. Members include industrial manufacturers, government entities and many other organizations. A search of the Performance Track Web site did not reveal any ports listed other than Houston.

The next challenge to the maritime trade, Kornegay believes, will stem from capacity constraints: Both import and export cargo will grow faster than U.S. facilities can handle. Economic downturns such as the current one are a temporary blip. “I am talking about the long term,” he said. “In my opinion, we are very close to reaching a stage where we don’t have enough cargo facilities. Not just containers, all kinds — but containers are going to be the first to hit the wall, so to speak.”

Another crucial issue, one that will compound capacity problems, is the industry’s long-standing problem getting adequate federal funding for waterway maintenance. “The federal government has been cutting funding for many years. We have been deferring maintenance. We are at the point where it is about to catch up with us,” he said. “People in the U.S. just don’t understand how much they rely on trade by water.”

Ports last decades, even centuries, and cost millions of dollars; decisions made today will affect many lives and have repercussions far into the future.

“You have to put yourself in the position of asking ‘what’s best for the port, and what’s best for the community?’” Kornegay said. “That is the only way to make those decisions. People forget that we are really an economic development engine, if you will.” Many of the port’s decisions help it financially, but some do not; they are intended to help economic development rather than the port’s bottom line. For example, Kornegay said, the port has been involved in developing a freight rail district that will help rail cargo get through the Houston region more efficiently and will ease road congestion by removing many at-grade rail crossings that now tie up Houston-area roads.

“We are largely responsible for getting (the freight-rail district) created,” he said. It has cost the port time and money “and gets us nothing in return, but it’s the right thing to do for this region.”

The Harris County Ship Channel Security District is another example, he said. The port needed a mechanism to get the public and private terminals along the ship channel to come together and work on security issues that affect the whole area, rather than simply focusing on their own terminals. “So we created this entity, the Houston Ship Channel Security District, and we are now trying to get that approved and up and running. And again, we are not going to get anything for doing that. It’s just something that needed to be done.”

TAFB Radiofax Schedule Changes

On November 3, 2008 several radiofax charts produced by the National Hurricane Center which are broadcast from New Orleans, Pt. Reyes and Honolulu be based on information from different model run times. A 36 hour wind/wave chart will be added to the New Orleans broadcast. This change is to better align workflow to model production.

The new broadcast schedules are listed on the TAFB Radiofax page.

The schedules may also be found at http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml.

Ceremony held for crewmen lost

By JESSE DUNSMORE
Times Herald

Choppy waters, angry-looking rainy skies and gusts of wind up to 36 mph provided what Capt. Brian Eickel called “perfect background” for a Saturday memorial ceremony for crewmen lost on the Great Lakes.

The second annual ceremony was held at the Great Lakes Maritime Center in Port Huron, and included several captains from the International Shipmasters’ Association.

The event opened with a prayer led by Rev. Peggy Konkel of the Unity Church of Blue Water in Port Huron.

Then a brass ensemble made up of students from Port Huron High School played “The Saints’ Halleluja.”

Eickel read a poem composed by Danice Fleming, the chaplain of the Veterans of Foreign Wars May-O’Brien Post in Port Huron.

Peter Werle, operations manager of the Maritime Center, introduced the segments of the program.

“No man has ever served at sea without knowing each day could be his last,” Werle said before turning the podium over to Capt. Bill Cline to read off the names of 16 shipping vessels lost on the lakes since 1913.

Among the losses were the 29-member crew of the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975, and 30 from the S.S. James Carruthers in 1913.

After each vessel was named, Capt. Bill Barnhardt rang a bell as Capt. Jerry Knox stood by.

The band then played Pachelbel’s Canon, and Konkel led a closing prayer.
After the ceremony, Eickel praised the crews of shipping vessels.

“All those merchant mariners had to brave the bad weather,” he said. “It’s really just (about) not forgetting the merchant mariners that do this.”

He said that while working in Duluth, Minn., he saw a freighter leaving the harbor and disappearing into darkness.

“I thought to myself, God, how brave those people must be.”

RS

August 4th Tornadoes and Damaging Winds (Updated Information)

August 4th Tornadoes and Damaging Winds (Updated Information)

Updated August 15, 2008

A total of 5 tornadoes was confirmed by the National Weather Service as having occurred during the severe thunderstorm episode Monday evening, August 4th, across the area.

Griffith, IN, rated EF2, Bloomingdale, IL, rated EF1, Bolingbrook, IL, rated EF1, Orland Park, IL, rated EF0, Boswell, IN, rated EF0

The cluster of thunderstorms which moved across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana on this day can be described as a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This is a continuous line of thunderstorms spanning many miles, for several hours, affecting many locations. This meteorological phenomenon is not uncommon for northern Illinois and northwest Indiana for this time of year. The pattern is distinguished by upper level winds orienting themselves in a northwest flow pattern. This orientation allows waves of energy (upper level disturbances) to traverse the region. Combining this with warm, moist, unstable conditions can trigger thunderstorm development and lead to a storm complex similar to Monday's occurrence. As this pattern persists, multiple waves of energy move across the region, providing several rounds of MCS activity.

As noted above, the atmosphere was quite unstable. On Monday, persistent southerly winds allowed a stream of very warm and moist air to advect into the region. This flow pattern, combining with ample heating from clearing skies, allowed temperatures to climb to near 90 by afternoon. Humidities peaked with dew point temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. This environmental combination provided the needed energy for thunderstorms to burst onto the scene. This combined heat and humidity accounted for heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees, validating a heat advisory in effect until 800 PM Monday evening for areas just outside of the Chicago Metro area.

Around 600 PM that evening, an MCS moved into far northwest Illinois. Continuing into southern Winnebago county and western Ogle county, a portion of the storm began to bow. The signature at this point in the storm evolution is what provides the name Bow Echo. This type of thunderstorm complex is capable of producing widespread wind damage and possible tornadoes as it moves quickly over a certain location. This bowing structure is induced by mid-level winds (rear inflow jet) penetrating the surface. It is at this time that the storm begins to bow and wind damage is produced. What affects its magnitude and longevity is the strength of the low level wind shear. Wind shear is just a change in wind direction or speed with height. The low level wind shear, defined from the surface to 3 kilometers, was sufficient to balance out the bowing segment. This allowed the Bow Echo to cut a wide swath of damaging winds across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana.

Low level circulations that can accompany a Bow Echo can also lead to significant damage. These low level circulations are generally near the leading edge of the line of storms, but north of the bow apex. It is these low level circulations that can create brief spin ups, or non-supercell tornadoes. Although these tornadoes are generally brief and weak in nature, they can still create damage as high as EF2. The environmental shear as discussed earlier is what can be the impetus for tornadogenesis along the leading edge of this type of storm. The environmental shear creates a horizontal circulation similar to a pinwheel. This circulation, or vorticity, gets tilted into the vertical, and helps create these low level circulations.

The widespread severity of wind damage with this unusual event will mark Monday’s storm as an historical one. The Bow Echo that moved across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana produced winds to 94 MPH at one point, while creating widespread damage and at least three confirmed tornadoes.

National Weather Service storm survey teams immediately assessed the damage which occurred with this devastating MCS. This attempted to validate any tornadoes indicated by radar or by reports sent in via the spotter network. Any tornado confirmed by the NWS gets a strength rating based on the damage inflicted. This rating is based off of the Enhanced-Fujita scale. Included with the rating, are the length and width of the tornado's path. This information is used by the NWS for agency use, but is also used to progress the science. Storm surveys used in conjunction with case studies can be a valuable tool to provide knowledge and insight each occurrence. Doing this allows meteorologists to better understand storm scale features that can lead to another significant event similar to Monday's. The goal here is to provide a better service to the public and the meteorological community.

The Chicago Weather Forecast Office would like to extend great thanks for all who helped with this event. This includes trained spotters, emergency managers, the media, law enforcement, and amateur radio network.

WEATHER NOTE

From Extreme Weather

Tropical Storm Fay

Is it a hurricane or tropical storm? The National Hurricane Center's projected path of movement for Tropical Storm Fay included a fourth Florida landfall as it dumped "historic" amounts of rain on parts of Central Florida. Read how scientists track storms from space in Extreme Weather on sale now.

NEW NWS MARINE WEATHER PORTAL

Tropical Storm Fay expected to hit Fla. 3rd time
By BRIAN SKOLOFF, Associated Press Writer

Tropical Storm Fay hung offshore Thursday and poured more rain on Florida's central Atlantic coast after flooding hundreds of homes, trapping residents and leaving much of Florida a soggy mess.

Alligators, snakes and other wildlife were spotted in some flooded neighborhoods after high water drove the animals from their normal lairs.

Forecasters expected the storm to continue a zigzag course by hitting the state for a third time in a week, along with Georgia, but didn't think it would strengthen to a hurricane over the Atlantic.

The storm flooded hundreds of homes in Brevard and St. Lucie counties, some with up to 5 feet of water, forcing dozens of rescues. The Federal Emergency Management Agency was reviewing Gov. Charlie Crist's request for a federal emergency disaster declaration to defray rising debris and response costs.

"I want to stress that this storm is becoming a serious catastrophic flooding event," Crist said.

Water was still high Thursday in much of southern Brevard County and officials feared the northern sections would be inundated next.

Emergency management spokeswoman Kimberly Prosser said wildlife officers have received several calls about alligators and other animals spotted in flooded neighborhoods, but only two small alligators have been captured.

"In the past we've usually had flooding in pockets. I have not seen anything this widespread throughout the county," Prosser said.

About 10,200 homes and businesses in the county were without power early Thursday, and about 134 people spent the night in shelters, she said. The county is home to NASA's Kennedy Space Center, which has been closed to most workers and all visitors since Tuesday. The center reported no significant damage.

"We can't even get out of our house," said Billie Dayton of Port St. Lucie, as waters lapped at her porch. "We're just hoping that it doesn't rain anymore."

Fay could dump 30 inches of rain in some areas of Florida and the National Weather Service said nearly 25 inches had already fallen near Melbourne, just south of Cape Canaveral.

In Jacksonville, residents were told to expect the brunt of the storm later Thursday. With schools, government offices and many businesses closed, streets were quiet and traffic was light at what would normally be the start of rush hour.

John Place, at a local Wal-Mart, said he and his wife has been prepared for quite a while. "This is not a panic situation," he said. "If it was a Category 1, 2 or 3 (hurricane) making a direct hit on Jacksonville, you'd have something."

The southern half of the Georgia coast was under a tropical storm warning as the outer bands of Fay brought start-and-stop rains along the entire 100 miles of the state's coastline up to Savannah, which received more than an inch of rain Wednesday.

The National Weather Service said isolated flooding was possible in southern Georgia, where Fay was forecast to dump 3-6 inches of rain if it followed the predicted path south of the Georgia-Florida border through Friday.

The Georgia Emergency Management Agency said residents in the southern counties should stock up on enough food and water for three days. Isolated flooding and power outages were possible, said GEMA spokesman Ken Davis.

The storm was just off the Florida coast early Thursday but continued to dump heavy rain. At 8 a.m. EDT, the storm's center was essentially stalled, located about 20 miles east-southeast of Daytona Beach. It was expected to begin slowly moving toward the west-northwest later in the day, bringing heavy rains to northern Florida and southern Georgia.

Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. The National Hurricane Center said some strengthening was possible while the center was still over water. But the storm was expected to weaken after moving back over land.

The erratic storm first struck Monday in the Florida Keys, then veered out to sea before traversing east across the state, briefly strengthening, then stalling. For much of Wednesday, the storm barely moved, dumping inches and inches of rain over coastal central Florida.

If Fay strikes Florida again as expected, it would be just the fourth storm in recorded history to hit the peninsula with tropical storm intensity three separate times. The most recent was Hurricane Donna in 1960, said Daniel Brown, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

No deaths have been reported in the state as a result of Fay, which formed over the weekend in the Atlantic and was blamed for 20 deaths in the Caribbean before hitting Florida's southwest coast.

MARITIME NOTE

Seaworthy or she-warty

By Gerry Geronimo

His office at the Romulo Law Office on the 30th floor of the Citibank Tower was no more than 20 paces from mine, but his alma mater beat me to him. I was still in the midst of conceiving a plan for him to hold an MCLE-accredited seminar on how to understand the legal maneuverings relating to Suspicion Lines’s Princess of the Stars now lying capsized near the shore of Sibuyan Islands when the UP College of Law was already signing him up for its public forum scheduled for Aug. 13.

Accordingly, with the lot of the non-medal athletes in the Beijing, I stood by the wayside Wednesday last week as UP Law got first crack at lawyer Eduardo Hernandez’s lecture on the legal liabilities for maritime disasters. But now that UP has claimed its prize and Hernandez’s views are in the public domain, I join in the cheering and the clapping for Philippine admiralty law’s Michael Phelps.

Hernandez gave his audience many eye-opening, is not conscience-shaking, insights. For example, in the Philippines, he points out, while bus drivers have gone to jail for the deaths in road accidents, not a single ship captain or shipowner has yet been convicted of the crime of multiple homicide thru reckless imprudence, despite the more than 6,000 deaths in maritime tragedies. But Hernandez was most effective when he explored how the legal concept that the ship’s seaworthiness is relative could organize the many facts and figures that had come out in the media on the Princess of the Stars and its ill-fated voyage.

Whether a ship is seaworthy or not, says Hernandez, is a question that can be answered in relation to the voyage contemplated. “Crossing the Atlantic calls for stronger equipment than sailing in a small lake. Sailing into a storm requires a higher degree of seaworthiness of the vessel.” Thus, it was held by the Supreme Court in Caltex vs. Sulpicio Lines, GR 131166, promulgated Sept. 30, 1999, that “for a vessel to be seaworthy, it must be adequately equipped for the voyage and manned with a sufficient number of competent officers and crew.” So also, citing Justice Brad Giles of New Zealand in his Shipping Law, Hernandez explains that to be seaworthy, the vessel must not only be an efficient instrument of transport in relation to the voyage, sufficiently provided with fuel and ballast, but also manned by an efficient crew.

In addition to being dependent on the interplay of structure, sea, and crew, seaworthiness is also relative as to time. The time when a ship is to be determined seaworthy, Hernandez points out in conformity with Sections 113 to 115 of the Marine Insurance Act, is at “the commencement of every voyage.”

Finally, the responsibility for so determining belongs to the shipowner himself. The reason is obvious: it is the carrier who is charged with the duty of extraordinary diligence. It is only reasonable that that duty be imposed while the ship is still at port and the owner and his people on shore are in a position to take remedial measures, including not permitting the ship to sail, should they find the ship not fit for the particular voyage to be made.

With these principles explained, Hernandez proceeded to ask some questions, some I heard from him for the first time, others already posed by members of the House of Representatives and of the Board of Marine Inquiry now officially looking into the tragedy. At the risk of over simplifying, the three component issues of seaworthiness are (a) the condition of the Princess of the Stars at the time it embarked on its journey to Cebu; (b) the current and foreseeable condition of the sea along the way; and (c) the capability of captain and crew to steer the ship under such conditions reasonably foreseen.

Prudently not pre-empting the current investigations, particularly of the Bureau of Marine Inquiry, whose report was reported to have been completed last week and was promised to be released to the waiting public soon, Hernandez did not give answers. But by using Hernandez’s enlightening conceptual framework, any reader of the daily broadsheets can easily come to his own judgment on whether on that fateful evening of June 20, the Princess of the Stars was fit to make the voyage she was unable to finish; the needed facts have all been made bare at the government hearings. In my view, here are some.

The Princess of the Stars was an old dame. She was admittedly built in Japan in 1984 and had seen better days as a ferry boat under the name “Ferry Lilac.” No longer considered by Japanese law fit to ply her trade in Japan, she was already junk when sold to Sulpicio Lines in late 2003. At 24 years when she made her final journey, pointed out Hernandez, the ship was no longer qualified, had a foreign-owned company applied under the bare boat charter law, to fly the Philippine flag to engage in foreign trade. Indeed, we impose a higher standard for ships flying the Philippine flag in their masts when in international commerce than for ships carrying poor Filipino passengers in their cabins in the coarse of local inter island trade.

Like some aging woman, the vessel underwent a bit of cosmetic lifting. She was modified in 2004 to raise her passengers capacity by 1,000. As a cargo vessel, she was a RO-RO, roll in and roll out. That explains why, like many mestizas of yesteryears still showing up in the society pages, she had a flat bottom that made her, according to Hernandez, “inherently unstable.” She was overweight, i.e. overloaded, too, when she left port for the last time, by at least 96 tons.

Nevertheless, the fat and flat Princess of the Stars boasted of an evaluation last year by the local unit of Bureau Veritas, said to be an internationally reputed classification society, as not having any major defect, with its hull and machineries in good order. But the classification was only a provisional one, the work of the local unit still needing to be confirmed by the mother’s unit in Singapore. The initial provisional certificate, which expired last February, had to be renewed because the Singapore office was too busy with other things. If a classification society cannot give prompt classifications needed to inform us promptly in a definitive way about the fitness of our ships, why is it allowed to offer its services here? That’s my question, not Hernandez’s.

It was this senior lady that set out for a rendezvous with juvenile typhoon “Frank” in the evening of June 20. Pagasa said that by 4 p.m. of that day, “Frank”, the huge dude, was already cavorting at 50 kms southeast of Catbalogan, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 kph in his belly and gustiness up to 170 kph. He was moving west northwest at the speed of 19 kph. Signal no.1 was up in Manila, where the Princess was priming herself; no. 2 in Romblon and Northern Cebu, an area known as the graveyard of many ships; and no. 3 in Biliran Island. Actually, in Cebu, where the Princess was to disgorge passengers and cargo, the Coast Guard suspended sea travel as early as 7 a.m.

The feisty lady nevertheless sailed out at around 8 in the evening, even as the bars of Metro Manila had dimmed their lights bereft of GROs, to meet up with “Frank” in an illicit tryst in the following morning. It was all over by noon of the 21st. “Frank” left Princess of the Stars, lying unladylike on the shores of Sibuyan, her bottom up for everyone to stare at in the afternoon sun.

In her deadly trip, she was manned by captain and crew duly licensed by Philippine authorities. I believe they were the best we’ve got. After all the better ones, said Hernandez, have gone aboard on foreign ships with better safety and higher pay. They were very senior; one of them, in charge of the engineering department, was in fact 81 years old. I pray to God that they are all still alive to tell their stories. Particularly the 81-year old. His would surely rival the Rime of the Ancient Mariner.

From Holland & Kinght

San Francisco – senior USCG officer charged with use of cocaine

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that a senior Coast Guard officer has been charged with wrongfully using cocaine and has been temporarily reassigned to a non-supervisory position. The charges are under investigation and the individual is presumed innocent until and unless proven guilty in a court of law. (8/20/08).

Alaska – Ocean Ranger access

The Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) issued the Ocean Ranger Access Status Report, which indicates that after some initial issues, Ocean Rangers on cruise ships operating in Alaska waters are provided sufficient access to all areas of the ships needed to perform their duties. (8/15/08).

Have a great weekend!
RS