Hazards Of Severe Space Weather Revealed

Hazards Of Severe Space Weather Revealed

ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2009) — A NASA-funded study describes how extreme solar eruptions could have severe consequences for communications, power grids and other technology on Earth.

The National Academy of Sciences in Washington conducted the study.

The resulting report provides some of the first clear economic data that effectively quantifies today's risk of extreme conditions in space driven by magnetic activity on the sun and disturbances in the near-Earth environment. Instances of extreme space weather are rare and are categorized with other natural hazards that have a low frequency but high consequences.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

"To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

Besides emitting a continuous stream of plasma called the solar wind, the sun periodically releases billions of tons of matter called coronal mass ejections.

These immense clouds of material, when directed toward Earth, can cause large magnetic storms in the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Such space weather can affect the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems.

Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting. Space weather has been recognized as causing problems with new technology since the invention of the telegraph in the 19th century.

A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities. Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future.

NASA requested the study to assess the potential damage from significant space weather during the next 20 years. National and international experts from industry, government and academia participated in the study. The report documents the possibility of a space weather event that has societal effects and causes damage similar to natural disasters on Earth.

"From a public policy perspective, it is quite significant that we have begun the extremely challenging task of assessing space weather impacts in a quantitative way," said Daniel Baker, professor and director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder. Baker chaired the panel that prepared the report.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," said Baker. "We were delighted that NASA helped support bringing together dozens of world experts from industry and government to share their experiences and begin planning of improved public policy strategies."

The sun is currently near the minimum of its 11-year activity cycle. It is expected that solar storms will increase in frequency and intensity toward the next solar maximum, expected to occur around 2012.

The Heliophysics Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington provided funding for the study. The division seeks to understand the sun, its solar processes and the interaction of solar plasma and radiation with Earth, other planets and the universe.

Understanding the connections between the sun and its planets will allow better prediction on the impacts of solar activity on humans, technological systems and even the presence of life itself in the universe.

The National Academies are chartered by Congress to provide independent technical and scientific advice to the federal government.

For images related to the study and more information about the Heliophysics Division, visit: http://nasascience.nasa.gov/heliophysics

To view the National Academy of Sciences' complete report, visit: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html

WEATHER NOTE

Satellites Used To Measure Inland Floods

ScienceDaily (Dec. 23, 2008) — Satellites that were designed to measure sea level over the world's oceans can serve a valuable purpose over land, a new study has found. Researchers used NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon satellite and the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite to measure the height and extent of flooding in North America, South America, and Asia.

The study shows that satellites can supplement the measurements that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) gathers from flood gauges on the ground -- at little or no cost, said C.K. Shum, professor of earth sciences at Ohio State University.

"After a flood, we can look back at the satellite data to pinpoint when the flood began, and find out how far the flood waters extended, which is really important for flood modeling," he said.

Satellites such as TOPEX/Poseidon measure the height of land or water by bouncing radio signals off of surfaces and measuring how long the signals take to return.

Rough surfaces scatter some of the signal in other directions, and cause errors in a satellite's on board tracking system. This often happens over land. Scientists use "re-tracking" software to fix the errors, and make the satellite's measurements more precise.

That's what the Ohio State software does -- it re-tracks the satellite data, but in a way that enables detailed measurements of water on land.

The key to the software is an algorithm that can tell the difference between water and snow cover. Ohio State postdoctoral researcher Hyongki Lee developed the algorithm and graduate student Manman Zhang applied the algorithm for her doctoral thesis.

Zhang presented the work in a poster session at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

Shum, Zhang, and their colleagues used the software to process TOPEX/Poseidon data from the 1997 Red River flood in the upper Midwest of the United States, an area with abundant farmland and wetlands. They detected flooded regions within four river basins: the Red River Basin in North Dakota and Minnesota; the Missouri River Basin in North Dakota and South Dakota; and the Minnesota River Basin and the Mississippi River Basin, both in Minnesota and Iowa.

The flood happened in April of that year, as winter snows began to melt. Zhang's algorithm differentiated between the scattered radar signal produced by water and by areas still covered by snow. As the floodwaters began to move down the Red River, the satellite measurements provided estimates of flood levels.

After re-tracking, the satellite data agreed with USGS ground measurements taken at the time. For example, the software determined that flood waters in Grand Forks, North Dakota, rose 20 feet (6 meters), which matched data recorded from flood gauges there.

The researchers did the same for the June 2008 Iowa City flood that killed three people and damaged 2 million acres of farmland. They found that they could track the ebb and flow of that flood over a scale of several hours. For that part of the study, they worked with Carrie Huitger, a USGS hydrologist who supplied the flood gauge data. They performed similar studies with TOPEX/Poseidon data for a flood in the Amazon River Basin, and with ENVISAT data for a flood in southwestern Taiwan -- both with similar results.

The satellites can't be used to forecast a flood because the data isn't processed very quickly and the spatial coverage of the satellite measurements is limited, Shum explained. Even preliminary processing takes hours. But after a flood, such data can add to data collected on the ground, to help scientists better understand how floods happen.

Next, the researchers want to automate the software so that it can build an archive of flood data. Since the satellites are already in orbit collecting the data, there would be little cost beyond building the database and enabling scientists to access it.

In the future, a new satellite may enable more extensive and detailed measurements. Ohio State scientists lead an international team that has proposed the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. The SWOT satellite will feature dual antennas that will gather high-resolution data over a much wider surface of the earth than is possible with today's satellites.

Collaborators on this project include Doug Alsdorf, associate professor of earth sciences, and Frank Schwartz, professor and Ohio Eminent Scholar in Hydrogeology.

This work was funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA.

Hail tornado severe storms lightning video Australia



MARITIME NOTE

Thousands urge rescue boat return

The crew of a Devon rescue boat is sending out its own SOS to get its vessel reinstated. A petition of 5,000 signatures is being handed in to parliament on Wednesday, saying lives are being put at risk.

The story made headlines last summer when the crew used the boat to rescue a teenage girl at Hope Cove.

The Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA), which had warned the crew that the boat was unsafe, impounded it. The MCA is due to hold talks on the issue.

The MCA later brought the boat back, with a restriction that it could be used within a certain distance from the beach in the South Hams area of Devon.

But two months ago the boat was locked away again, this time until a consultation was carried out.

The crew has said the boat is safe and fears lives are being put at risk.
MP Anthony Steen said: "The rescue boat had been successfully operated by four men who were able to launch the boat at a moment's notice in the event of an emergency since they worked locally.

"Now a large stretch of the south Devon coastline is suddenly without adequate sea rescue coverage."

The MCA said Hope Cove was covered by the nearby Salcombe lifeboat.
It said in a statement: "We will be consulting with stakeholders soon to discuss beach safety provision in the South Hams."

FROM HOLLAND AND KNIGHT

Singapore – comments sought re draft amendments to MARPOL Annex I The Singapore Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) issued a circular stating that it is seeking comments from owners, operators, masters, and others regarding draft interim guidelines and draft amendments to MARPOL Annex I adopted by the recent session of the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC). The draft documents relate to: (1) the method of calculation of the energy efficiency design index for new ships; (2) the Supplement to the IOPP Certificate; (3) prevention of pollution during transfer of oil cargo between oil tankers at sea; (4) amendments to Regulations 1, 12, 13, 17, and 38; (5) the IOPP Certificate; and (6) the Oil Record Book. The draft amendments are expected to be adopted at the next session of the MEPC, scheduled for July 2009. Shipping Circular No. 5 of 2009 (1/6/09).

UK – report on container ship-fishing vessel collision The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) issued the summary of its preliminary examination of a collision between a container ship and a fishing vessel that occurred in good weather off Lizard Point on 18 September 2008. Visibility from the bridge of the container ship was impaired. Neither vessel was maintaining a good lookout or making proper use of their radar. (1/6/09).

UK – contract awarded for MSC NAPOLI wreck removal The UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) issued a press notice stating that a contract has been awarded for removal of the stern section of the wreck of the MSC NAPOLI. The scrap is to be delivered to a recovery facility in the Netherlands. (1/6/09).

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NASA Spacecraft Tracks Raging Saturn Storm

NASA Spacecraft Tracks Raging Saturn Storm

ScienceDaily (Apr. 30, 2008) — As a powerful electrical storm rages on Saturn with lightning bolts 10,000 times more powerful than those found on Earth, the Cassini spacecraft continues its five-month watch over the dramatic events.

Scientists with NASA's Cassini-Huygens mission have been tracking the visibly bright, lightning-generating storm--the longest continually observed electrical storm ever monitored by Cassini.

Saturn's electrical storms resemble terrestrial thunderstorms, but on a much larger scale. Storms on Saturn have diameters of several thousand kilometers (thousands of miles), and radio signals produced by their lightning are thousands of times more powerful than those produced by terrestrial thunderstorms.

Lightning flashes within the persistent storm produce radio waves called Saturn electrostatic discharges, which the radio and plasma wave science instrument first detected on Nov. 27, 2007. Cassini's imaging cameras monitored the position and appearance of the storm, first spotting it about a week later, on Dec. 6.

"The electrostatic radio outbursts have waxed and waned in intensity for five months now," said Georg Fischer, an associate with the radio and plasma wave science team at the University of Iowa, Iowa City. "We saw similar storms in 2004 and 2006 that each lasted for nearly a month, but this storm is longer-lived by far. And it appeared after nearly two years during which we did not detect any electrical storm activity from Saturn."

The new storm is located in Saturn's southern hemisphere--in a region nicknamed "Storm Alley" by mission scientists--where the previous lightning storms were observed by Cassini. "In order to see the storm, the imaging cameras have to be looking at the right place at the right time, and whenever our cameras see the storm, the radio outbursts are there," said Ulyana Dyudina, an associate of the Cassini imaging team at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, Calif.

Cassini's radio plasma wave instrument detects the storm every time it rotates into view, which happens every 10 hours and 40 minutes, the approximate length of a Saturn day. Every few seconds the storm gives off a radio pulse lasting for about a tenth of a second, which is typical of lightning bolts and other electrical discharges. These radio waves are detected even when the storm is over the horizon as viewed from Cassini, a result of the bending of radio waves by the planet's atmosphere.

Amateur astronomers have kept track of the storm over its five-month lifetime. "Since Cassini's camera cannot track the storm every day, the amateur data are invaluable," said Fischer. "I am in continuous contact with astronomers from around the world."

The long-lived storm will likely provide information on the processes powering Saturn's intense lightning activity. Cassini scientists will continue to monitor Storm Alley as the seasons change, bringing the onset of autumn to the planet’s southern hemisphere.

The Cassini-Huygens mission is a cooperative project of NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. JPL, a division of Caltech, manages the Cassini mission for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C. The Cassini orbiter and its two onboard cameras were designed, developed and assembled at JPL. The imaging team is based at the Space Science Institute, Boulder, Colo. The radio and plasma wave science team is based at the University of Iowa, Iowa City.

WEATHER NOTE

I just can't let this date go without mentioning that on May 7, 2007 the United States Coast Guard rescued three sailors aboard the sailboat Sean Seamour II during Tropical Storm Andrea in the Hatteras Trench region. This was one dramatic and dangerous rescue. My thanks to USCG H-60 Aircraft Commander, Lt. Commander Nevada Smith, his crew and the Master of the Sean Seamour II, Jean Pierre de Lutz.

MARITIME NOTE

Passengers rescued from cruise ship

Latvia's coastguard evacuated a stranded cruise ship of more than 650 people after tug boats failed to pull the luxury liner off an underwater sand bank in the Baltic Sea.

In a five-hour operation, 651 passengers - mostly elderly Germans - and 11 crew members were transferred from the 660ft-long Mona Lisa on to two naval ships, coastguard officials said.

They were taken about 22 miles to Ventspils, a port city in north-western Latvia, for onward travel to the capital, Riga.

'Weigh every box', urges ship manager

Seven 30-foot boxes collapsed in to the Annabella's hold.

A SHIP manager caught up in an accident involving crushed containers is lobbying for every box to be weighed before loading.

That would prevent many of the incidents when either stacks have collapsed or containers have been washed overboard, Döhle (IOM) non-executive chairman Jörg Vanselow told an industry audience this week.

No single cause can be blamed for the sizeable number of container losses recorded in recent years, but Capt Vaneslow is pressing for more information about the cargo to be supplied to the ship’s master by the shipper or terminal operator.

That would enable senior officers to make a decision about the safest height of a container stack, said Capt Vaneslow, who was at sea for 16 years before joining the German shipping group Peter Döhle.

The company managed the 868 teu Annabella, which has become a cause celebre in shipping circles after seven 30 ft containers collapsed in to the hold early last year.

The UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch made a number of recommendations, including the need for a code of best practise that the industry is now working on.

Statistics on the number of container losses is hard to come by, but one industry estimate puts the figure at around 10,000 boxes a year. Of those, about 25% are lost over the side, according to Jos Koning, senior project manager at the Maritime Research Institute in the Netherlands, which is now working on a study of the dynamics and tolerances of a container stack on a super post-panamax ships which may be piled seven or eight boxes high.

The value of annual losses would probably be around $500m, an amount easily covered by insurance, but the real risk is the consequential damage such as schedule disruption, risk of a toxic leak, and a negative public image.

Addressing Containerisation International’s Global Liner Shipping Conference, Mr Koning said numerous contributory factors had been identified when investigating container loss accidents.

Some were caused by parametric rolling, others by bow slamming. Faulty twistlocks, ship size or design, poor stowage, lack of maintenance, or basic human error could all be blamed at various times.

“There is no one singe reason why cargo is being lost,” Mr Koning said.

Small ships may be more at risk than bigger vessels because of their lower freeboard and greater vulnerability to weather conditions or overweight containers.

But the Dutch institute has also embarked on its TallShip project to examine whether rules developed when containerships were very much smaller are still suitable for the latest generation of boxships with much higher stacks. The conclusions should be ready by June 2009 and may be submitted to the International Maritime Organization.

One concern is the relative inexperience of many ships’ crews and whether they have sufficient seafaring skills in the rare event of hitting exceptionally severe weather.

Pressure on the crew of small ships such as the Annabella is intense these days, with far more hectic sailing schedules then ever before, according to Capt Vanselow. In busy ports like Rotterdam, where feeders may have to call at several different berths, the crew is working virtually round-the-clock.

Furthermore, the captain may not receive details about the next port of call until he is alongside the quay.

But what a ship’s officers should be supplied with is information about the weight of containers being loaded, Capt Vanselow argues.

Procedures could easily be adapted so that each container is weighed as it is lifted onto the ship, and that information immediately conveyed to the captain.

Should an accident occur, a legal nightmare begins because of the highly complex contractual web covering a ship and its cargo.

There is no straightforward way of determining who is responsible, with each and every contract likely to be unique in some way, according to Holman Fenwick & Willan partner Craig Neame.

Contracts “are a complete and utter minefield”, with any parties involved in a loss advised to map out the relationships with each other that could involve the cargo owner, forwarder, shipowner, shipping line, terminal operator P&I club, hull underwriter, cargo insurer and more.

• A device designed by former insurance broker Toby Priestly could help solve the hazards posed by semi-submerged containers.

He has patented an automatic two-way valve that opens either on contact with water, or when under pressure, so that air can escape.

Four of these simple-to-manufacture valves fitted to each container would enable water to flood into a box lost overboard, ensuring it should sink quickly rather than floating just beneath the surface.

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Cosmic Tornado

Cosmic Tornado HH49/50 Credit: J. Bally (Univ. of Colorado) et al., JPL-Caltech, NASA

Explanation: Light-years in length, this cosmic tornado is actually a powerful jet cataloged as HH (Herbig-Haro) 49/50 blasting down from the top of a Spitzer Space Telescope view. Though such energetic outflows are well known to be associated with the formation of young stars, the exact cause of the spiraling structures apparent in this case is still mysterious. The embryonic star responsible for the 100-kilometer per second jet is located just off the top of the picture, while the bright star seen near the tip of the jet may just by chance lie along the line of sight. In the false-color infrared image, the tornado glows with infrared light generated as the outflow heats surrounding dust clouds. The color coding shows a trend from red to blue hues at the tornado's tip indicating a systematic increase in emission at shorter wavelengths. The trend is thought to indicate an increase in molecular excitation closer to where the head of the jet is impacting interstellar gas. HH49/50 is about 450 light-years distant, located in the Chamaeleon I molecular cloud.

Weather Story

The National Hurricane Center is watching three storms in the Atlantic Ocean, but none is expected to intensify significantly right now.

A new system has formed off the African coast, and is being called Tropical Storm Melissa.

The disturbance is moving east at about 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karen was ripped apart by wind sheer throughout the week and now is a disorganized mass. Its remnants are slowly moving across the Atlantic Ocean, about 475 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center doesn't expect the storm to regenerate in the coming days.

In Southwest Florida, temperatures will remain at 90 degrees for the coming week, with the daily chance of rain around 40 percent.

The greatest bet for afternoon rain could be Tuesday or Wednesday, as forecasters are anticipating a 60 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms. The daytime high temperature will be about 90 degrees.

Tropical Storm Juliette

Tropical Storm Juliette formed in the Pacific Ocean off Mexico and was forecast to whirl along off the Baja California peninsula over the next few days, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.

Juliette was carrying maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (72 kph) and was more than 350 miles southwest of the peninsula.

The center described Juliette as a "weaker storm" that could lose force as it hit cooler waters.

Maritime Notes:



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