Destructive waves discussed

Destructive waves discussed

By Joseph Serna

On some days, it was a howling wind, one that makes the ocean mist feel like tiny pricks of ice on your skin. On others, the wind was calmer and the waves came in 6- to 8-foot sets, about 45 minutes apart. The water hovered around 60 degrees. But the surf, consistently big, sets consistently far apart, had people saying they’d never seen anything like it in Newport Beach.

When a storm originating in Antarctica sent huge swells thousands of miles up to Newport Beach last year, two people fishing were swept off the eastern jetty in Corona del Mar.

“That was the first day the swell got farther apart,” said lifeguard Skeeter Leeper, who was there that day. “It probably took them five minutes to walk to where they were.”

The sets were coming in about 15 minutes apart, Leeper said. They probably didn’t see the surf only minutes earlier.

“Then all of a sudden you got a 10-foot wave coming out,” and they were taken by surprise, he said.

The only traces Fremont resident 53-year-old Sean Shungfei Yeh and 49-year-old Irvine woman Yi Ni Kwong left that day were a straw hat and a shoe.

Retelling that story with pictures from the next day’s headlines, Craig Smith reiterated the unpredictable power of the ocean to nearly 100 people in Newport Beach Central Library on Thursday night.

Smith, an author, engineer and amateur yachtsman, told them about rogue waves, mythical giant walls of water that mangle steel, snap ships in half and swallow whole crews in one fell swoop and tsunamis and how they could affect Newport Beach.

Thanks to science, the once-mythical rogue wave — the one that towers over all others in the ocean — is finding its way it to many unsolved mysteries in the ocean. Waves that measure up to 120-feet high have been blamed for sinking ships of more than 500 tons.

Their only warning, the “hole in the sea” ships fall into as the wave overwhelms. Scientists have not yet found an accurate way to predict when they’ll form, Smith said.

“It’s the capricious nature of them that makes them so problematic,” he said. “It’s only a problem if you’re in the wrong place at the wrong time that they become a problem.”

Newport Beach doesn’t have to worry about rogues so much, he said. But, Smith said, if Alaska, a country off the coast of South America or a tectonic plate in the Pacific were to slip, a tsunami could become a reality. Most seemed fascinated, but a bit surprised the potential disasters out in the sea that could hit home in Southern California, audience members said.

“The threat is remote, but it’s real,” said audience member Doug West.

WEATHER NOTE

Tornado season arrives - be prepared

Spooked in the past by scary dark clouds and high winds, Monroe County area residents should not ignore siren blasts when they go off this spring.

It could mean a tornado is approaching, a nuclear plant accident just happened or a hazardous waste spill has occurred. In either case, citizens should prepare for the worst, local civil preparedness authorities say.

Glenda White, interim director of the county Emergency Management Division in Monroe, said it's easy to be complacent when sirens are sounded. But that's why the county and state have declared this week (April 6-12) Severe Weather Awareness Week.

"We've had our share of tornadoes, floods and thunderstorms," Ms. White said. "You can't take the sirens for granted. You have to be ready ... we've been lucky we haven't had an F3 tornado or higher recently."

Tornadoes have ravaged the county in the past and could do so again, she cautioned. In fact, this is the start of the season for tornadoes.

On April 3, 1974, two twisters touched down in Erie and Berlin townships, destroying two homes and sending two people to the hospital for serious injuries. The tornado that touched down in Erie was later classified as an F3 twister, meaning it packed winds of between 158 and 206 mph.

These were only two of nearly 150 tornadoes that pummeled the nation that day, killing 315 people, injuring 6,000 and causing $600 million in property damage.

There have been other twisters in the county in April. The worst was the Palm Sunday storm on April 11, 1965, that killed two people in Lost Peninsula in Erie Township. On that evening, a twister killed 11 people in Lenawee County and smashed through Milan, causing $19 million in damage along its path. The storm hit about 8:25 p.m.

About an hour later, another twister, accompanied by golf ball-sized hail, landed in Lost Peninsula and caused about $1 million in damage. The same funnel cloud killed 13 people in and near Toledo.

Another April tornado struck in 1963 in Frenchtown Township. Both Grand Beach and Stony Point were pummeled and one person was injured. It caused about $60,000 in damage.

The most savage twister to hit the county came June 8, 1953, when four people were killed and 15 injured when a funnel cloud formed over Petersburg about 6 p.m. and then raked through Erie Township a half hour later. Some 20 homes along Baycreek, E. Temperance and Substation Rds. were demolished. Damage exceeded $1 million.

Tornadoes develop during severe thunderstorms. A funnel that forms is not actually classified as a twister until it touches earth. A violently rotating column of air trailing from a thunderstorm, but not in contact with the ground is known as a funnel. Other terminology and information about tornado safety, lightning and other severe storms can be found on the weather service Web site at www.weather.gov.

Area communities no longer may be put on alert for a tornado warning when the sun is shining and there is no apparent threat of a storm approaching.

The National Weather Service changed its tornado alert and thunderstorm warning system last fall to make them more geographically specific.

This will be the first spring the new system is in place, meaning a difference when a tornado or thunderstorm alert is issued.

The weather service has stopped issuing countywide severe weather warnings and instead will issue "storm-based warnings" for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, flash floods and marine hazards for specific areas within the county. The new warning system, for example, may include well-known landmarks in the region such as I-75 or M-50 or the River Raisin or Huron River.

The change should be fairly easy for the public to understand, said David Kohler, a meteorologist for the weather service near Pontiac.

"We're going to fine-tune our warnings so they don't unnecessarily warn people in areas that won't be affected," Mr. Kohler said.

Weather forecasters still will have the flexibility to recommend warnings that cover a wide enough area in case the weather takes an unexpected turn.

Severe thunderstorms can bring many dangers in addition to occasional tornadoes.

Other hazards include damaging winds and large hail. Some severe storms can produce winds of more than 100 miles an hour, resulting in damage equal to that of a tornado.

Since 1970, high winds - mostly from severe thunderstorms - were responsible for 118 weather-related deaths in Michigan, the weather service said. During that same period, there were 23 tornado-related deaths. Lightning resulted in one death and several injuries in 2007 compared to three deaths and eight injuries in 2006.

Flash floods can be dangerous, too, and can happen any time of year. Rapid flooding of low-lying areas accompanied by swift currents can quickly lead to life-threatening situations. Flash flooding is the No. 1 weather-related killer.

Doppler 7 Xtreme HD- Severe Weather Guide

Click to download the Doppler 7 Xtreme HD Severe Weather Guide (8.6MB)

We all plan the course of our day by checking out the weather. But when nasty storms threaten, it’s really time to sit up and take notice. Spring and summer storms can dangerous, if not downright deadly. Jerry Hodak, Dave Rexroth and the rest of the Doppler 7 Extreme Weather Team have the skill and experience to help keep you safe in these fast-changing weather events.

Here are some severe weather facts and advice so that you can recognize dangerous weather conditions and act accordingly.

Click to download the Doppler 7 Xtreme HD Severe Weather Guide

MARITIME NOTE

Owner of Beached Ferry Riverdance Presents Plans to Dismantle Her

April 10, 2008

After a lengthy evaluation process, the owner of the Riverdance ferry, now lying on Blackpool beach, has produced plans to dismantle the ship in situ on the grounds that this represents the best option available in the interests of safety and protecting the environment.

Hugh Shaw, the Secretary of State’s Representative for Maritime Salvage and Intervention (SOSREP), has been involved throughout and has informed the owner that he has no objection to the plans.

Weather permitting, it is estimated that the project will take approximately 12-14 weeks.

Options examined ranged from righting the vessel (known as par-buckling), cutting up in situ or a combination of both. The preferred method will involve cargo, trailer and machinery removal, including any debris and any pollutants, whilst maintaining the integrity of the hull. The vessel will be stripped down internally until only the shell remains. The hull will then be cut into manageable pieces and transported for recycling.

The Environment Group have been advised as well as Defra, the Environment Agency, the Marine and Fisheries Agency and Natural England. All parties (including Defra, the Environment Agency, the Environment Group, the Marine and Fisheries Agency and Natural England) recognize that, due to the uncertainty and technical difficulties of righting the vessel, cutting up in situ is now the best option.

Until the new contract for demolition is awarded, SMIT Salvage remain on contract to carry out caretaking duties only.

Hugh Shaw said

“I look forward to being able to brief officers and elected members of the local authorities to explain how and why the forthcoming works will be carried out. I also look forward to working closely with all interested organisations such as the police and local transport services to ensure that minimum disruption is caused to residents and local people.”

The original plan to reduce the list using tidal and internal buoyancy was abandoned due to the additional structural damage sustained during storms on 12 March. The vessel remains lying on the beach with a list of 100 + degrees. In addition the vessel continues to sink deeper into the sand. It is estimated that at least 4 meters of the bridge / wheelhouse is now under the sand.

On Thursday 31 January 2008, the vessel’s crew, on passage from Warren Point to Heysham, reported that she had developed a 40 degree list and was drifting towards the Lancashire coast. The vessel subsequently grounded at Cleveleys Beach, North Shore, Blackpool.

Source: Maritime and Coastguard Agency

Messing About In Ships Episode 18

April 10, 2008, 9:01 am
Filed under: podcast, shownotes

Messing About In Ships podcast episode # 18 has launched.

(56 minutes)

Download MP3 file: Messing About In Ships Episode 18 (April 10, 2008)

Show Notes: coming soon

Subscribe Via iTunes HERE

Enjoy a safe weekend!

RS

Shipwrecks a time capsule of the Great Lake

Shipwrecks a time capsule of the Great Lakes

Posted by Eric Gaertner | The Muskegon Chronicle April 05, 2008 22:48PM

Not far from the Hackley and Hume historic sites and the Muskegon County Museum downtown are structures waiting to provide visitors a look at a different time in our history.

Yet few people realize the existence of these structures, some more than 100 years old and hundreds of feet long, unseen by the naked eye.

They are shipwrecks that reside at the bottom of Lake Michigan off the West Michigan coastline -- underwater historical exhibits telling tales of tragedy, history and, in some cases, survival.

These local wrecks from Grand Haven to Pentwater cover a wide range of sizes, shapes and shipping eras. They are found in various depths, from just off the shoreline in 15 feet of water to hundreds of feet below the surface where only the most advanced divers are able to descend.

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Watch the underwater video of dives on the Anna C. Minch and the Novadoc near Pentwater. Both sank on Nov. 11, 1940.

Diving on shipwrecks

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Despite their differences, the wrecks provide a time capsule of Great Lakes shipping and their crews.

An abundance of wrecks

There have been about 8,000 Great Lakes wrecks, according to researchers, and the cold, fresh water keeps them better preserved than those found in oceans.

Though Lake Michigan is considered the most dangerous of the Great Lakes, the West Michigan area has a wreck density that is slightly less than other parts of the Big Lake and is not considered a top dive destination, said shipwreck historian and researcher Brendon Baillod.

Baillod is also an author who is working on a book about Oceana County's shipwrecks, "Ghosts of the Oceana Coast." Still, there are plenty of "notable" wrecks off the coast from Pentwater to Grand Haven, Baillod said.

Among the most interesting wrecks and divable points along the West Michigan shoreline are:

• The Armistice Day wrecks off Pentwater.
• The State of Michigan off the White Lake Channel.
• The Ironsides off Grand Haven.
• The Brighty off the Oceana County coast.
• The Neptune near the Little Sable Point.

The area isn't home to widely famous wrecks such as the Edmund Fitzgerald or the Carl D. Bradley, the two largest ships to sink on the Great Lakes that took the lives of many sailors. Area wrecks mainly came from the local traffic of lumber schooners or small passenger steamers and vessels in transit from Milwaukee or Chicago to the Straits of Mackinac, Baillod said.

"Storms would tend to blow vessels ashore on your stretch of beach," Baillod said.

Photo/Muskegon County MuseumAnother view of the Henry Cort.

Based on his research, Baillod estimates that about 250 wrecks -- not all of which have been found and documented -- are located off the shoreline from Oceana south to Ottawa County.

For some local divers, the history and research make the dives worthwhile. For others, the opportunity to dive and view a unique underwater structure supersedes the actual story behind the wreck.

Enlarge graphic

John Hanson, 54, of Montague, reads about all the local shipwrecks before diving them. In some cases, he also talks with museum workers and relatives of those who served on the ship.

"I like doing the research, finding out the history of the wreck," Hanson said. "It brings you in touch with the people who served on them."

Colin DeVries, 66, of Whitehall Township, also enjoys the historical nature of shipwreck diving. As a diver for 45 years and a travel coordinator for West Michigan Dive Center for 30 years, DeVries has been to countless wrecks in locations covering six of the seven continents.

"I've always had an interest," DeVries said of shipwrecks and their histories. "The idea of any diver is to find something new yourself, but that's usually left to a few."

Valerie van Heest is one of those few. Along with her Holland-based group, Michigan Shipwreck Research Associates, she searches for undocumented shipwrecks, some in deep water off West Michigan, mainly from Pentwater to the Indiana border. The group uses its research to pinpoint the best locations to search and publicizes the history of a ship when it discovers a new wreck.

MSRA has discovered or rediscovered nine shipwrecks in its 10 years of Lake Michigan exploration. MSRA uses its historical research and specialized sonar equipment to explore specific areas.

Dan Bloom, 48, of Roosevelt Park, leaves the research and history to others. He reads books about some wrecks, but mainly he just enjoys the "peaceful, natural feeling" he gets from being underwater.

"I like to go down and look at the vessel and appreciate what is there," said Bloom, who owns West Michigan Dive Center Travel.

Some wrecks to remember

Local divers have their favorites, some based on the ship's history and some based on the look of the wreck now.

The State of Michigan, near the White Lake Channel, is among the top shipwreck dive sites, according to the local divers. It sank in 1901 and sits on the bottom of Lake Michigan in about 65 feet of water.

Bloom describes the wreck as having the starboard side of the hull and the propellor still intact, while the bow is pointed toward the shore. He cautioned that divers will encounter the ship's boiler at about 47 feet down.

"There's a lot still there," Bloom said. "It's an enjoyable wreck."

"There's a real neat deck cart there, and, of course, it's now covered by zebra mussels," Hanson said. "The wreck now looks like a giant row boat. There's no deck on it anymore."

The Ironsides, off Grand Haven, also is considered one of the prime local dive sites, because the ship is in relatively good condition for a wooden steamer that sank in 1873. The wreck is in about 110 feet of water.

"That one's probably the most intact," DeVries said. "It's made of wood and most usually fall apart over the years and this one hasn't."

"It's nice because it's a little deeper, a more advanced dive so not everyone goes out there," Bloom said.

Source: Michigan Shipwreck Research Associates The 420-foot William B. Davock sank in the "Armistice Day" storm, with the loss of 32 lives. Enlarge photo

Source: Michigan Shipwreck Research Associates The 380-foot long Anna C. Minch sank off of Pentwater on Nov. 11, 1940 with the loss of 24 men. Enlarge photo

Source: Michigan Shipwreck Research Associates The 252-foot Novadoc also sank in the Ludington-Pentwater vicinity on Nov. 11, 1940. The 17-man crew survived. Enlarge photo

Three ships that sank during the devastating Armistice Day storm of 1940 near Pentwater also rank among the most famous wrecks in the area. The William B. Davock was the second largest ship ever lost in Lake Michigan, while the Anna C. Minch is considered a quality dive site with a large steel wreckage. The Novadoc wreck is notable because it is in shallow water, 12-15 feet, and can be viewed with a snorkel.

The wreck of the Henry Cort off the north side of the Muskegon Channel is quite historic because of the story behind its sinking. The 320-foot whaleback steamer hit the heavy stone breakwater after encountering a storm packing 45 mph winds on Nov. 30, 1934.

The incident featured an amazing rescue by the U.S. Coast Guard that saved the 25 men on board, but one of the Coast Guard members died after being washed out of the boat.

Hundreds on shore watched as the Coast Guard shot a line from the pier to the Henry Cort and all 25 men climbed hand over hand along the line to the pier. From there, the men huddled together and slowly made the trek along the slippery rocks of the breakwater, oftentimes as huge waves broke over their heads.

The wreck sits on the outside of the north breakwater in about 30 feet of water. DeVries said the wreck is partially covered up now with some anchor chain still visible, but he cautioned that divers must be careful with the boat traffic using the channel.

A natural museum

All of these area shipwrecks would be part of a proposed underwater preserve. A local group, including divers, is attempting to get the area from just south of Grand Haven to Pentwater established as the West Michigan Underwater Preserve. The group's goal is to help protect the shipwrecks, highlight the area as a tourism diving destination and sink a cleaned vessel as an artificial shipwreck.

A state-recognized preserve also would help recognize the stories behind these area wrecks and how the sinkings occurred.

Like the Cort, vessels being driven ashore by storms is considered one of the main reasons for the shipwrecks on the Great Lakes. Baillod said waves, which tend to be steeper and occur on shorter intervals than those on the ocean, and the sudden, severe weather that often hits the region, especially in November, are major factors.

"November storms on the Lakes blow in unabated across the Great Plains and strike with incredible fury," Baillod said. "Fall was also the season when cargoes were most in demand, such as grain and crops needed over the winter, coal needed for heating, etc. There was a tremendous incentive for ships to go out during the most dangerous season."

The state government deems these shipwrecks unique resources that can trace the history of Michigan. As such, state officials manage shipwrecks as public trust resources that must be protected for future generations to explore and study.

To protect those publicly owned resources, the state legislature amended a law in 1994 that established fines and penalties for "illegally removing, altering or destroying artifacts" from shipwrecks. The law does not restrict searching for, diving on or photographing shipwrecks.

WEATHER NOTE

Dealing with disaster
Preparation is The Best Defense

(NAPSI)-The United States had the most natural disasters of any country in 2007. According to the United Nations, the U.S. had 22 natural disasters, followed by China with 20 and India with 18.

According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), flooding is the nation's single most common natural disaster and can happen in every state. Tornados are nature's most violent storms and can happen anywhere. Hurricanes can cause storm surge, high winds, tornadoes and flooding. Wildfires are a major concern in drought-prone regions. And don't forget mudslides and blizzards.

Should you have to evacuate, the DHS (Ready.gov) recommends that you carry enough emergency supplies to make it on your own for at least three days. A basic emergency kit should include water, 1 gallon per person per day for drinking and sanitation; nonperishable food; battery-powered radio and flashlight; extra batteries; first-aid kit; whistle to signal for help; dust mask to help filter the air; moist towelettes; and cash or travelers checks, appropriate clothing, diapers, medications, glasses, pet food, etc.

"Think of food as fuel when you're shopping for your emergency kit," says Sunbelt Snacks Registered Dietitian Joanne V. Lichten, Ph.D., R.D., author of "Dr. Jo's How To Stay Healthy & Fit on the Road." She recommends the following items to fuel your engine during an emergency:

• Multivitamins.

• Ready-to-eat canned (or vacuum-packed) meats including tuna, salmon, sardines and kippers.

• Canned (or ready-to-eat vacuum-packed) fruits such as peaches, fruit cocktail and apple sauce.

• Canned vegetables including corn and green beans.

• Peanut butter and jelly.

• Dried fruit including raisins, cranberries, peaches and apricots.

• Nuts.

• Whole-grain crackers, crisp flatbread.

• 100 percent fruit juice and sports drinks.

• Nonperishable pasteurized milk or powdered milk (to add to safe water source).

• Granola cereal, granola bars or fruit-filled cereal bars.

Sunbelt offers granola bars that have received the Whole Grains Council basic stamp, available only to products containing a half serving (8 grams) or more of whole grains. The bars are individually wrapped for freshness. Visit SunbeltSnacks.com for more information.

Flooding is the nation's single most-common natural disaster and can happen in every state.

RS

Hurricane forecasters' emergency network system going public

Hurricane forecasters' emergency network system going public

By Arlene Satchez South Florida Sun-Sentinel"

It gave us the best opportunity to raise money and make it a viable business," said Norcross of the dealwith publicly traded Brampton.

Norcross, WFOR's hurricane specialist, will be company president and chief executive officer. With almost 40 years in broadcasting, he's experienced some of the frustrations caused by a communications disconnect among the media, government and the community during a disaster.

He became known in South Florida after delivering around-the-clock coverage when Hurricane Andrew hit sections of Miami-Dade County in August 1992.

Mayfield, who retired last year from the hurricane center, spent 34 years with the National Weather Service and is the hurricane specialist for WPLG-Ch. 10. He'll be senior vice president of government relations, working with emergency management agencies.

Despite the media's best efforts during a disaster, there are not enough reporters to cover all emergency operation centers in affected areas, Mayfield said.

The inability for emergency managers to communicate with the public or with other government agencies during disasters can hinder rescue or relief efforts.

Case in point: Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. The federal government's lack of response in devastated areas of the Gulf Coast immediately after the hurricane triggered national outrage.

The forecasters worked with Jackson, Miss.-based technology company Global Security Systems to develop blueprints for a communications network that is expected to fill crucial gaps in emergency management communications nationally.

Global Security's Alert FM system, a segment of the network, uses signals from local FM stations to transmit messages instantly to the community or a target audience. Information can also be sent as text or voice messages to mobile phones.

The communications network also will include a Web site with video footage and advisories from emergency management offices and other government agencies (free to the public) and a TV channel, broadcasting news conferences and other critical information.

Online segments of the network will be tested in April and May in nine emergency management locations, most of which will be in South Florida, and a new satellite system to broadcast videos should be running by June 1, in time for hurricane season, Norcross said.

To seal the deal, Brampton exchanged 100 million of its common stock shares. A recent $1 million private placement of Brampton shares will also be used to finance the emergency network and shareholders are expected to vote on the deal in June. Pending approval, the merged company will be renamed The AEN Group Inc.

"I believe the public will buy into this," Mayfield said. "It'll be my true legacy when all is said and done. I'm really committed to making it happen."

Arlene Satchell can be reached at asatchell@sun-sentinel.com or 954-356-4209.

WEATHER NOTES

Preparing for spring severe weather

By ALEX DOTY
Sentinel-Standard writer
Published: Monday, March 31, 2008 11:28 PM CDT

IONIA - April showers bring May flowers, but they can also bring severe weather that can have a negative impact on residents across Ionia County.

“I think everyone should be preparing for severe weather right now,” Ionia County Emergency Management Coordinator Rick Norman said.

According to information released from the State of Michigan, in 2007 there were 11 injuries and four deaths as a result of severe weather. Additionally, severe weather resulted in about $150 million in property damage across the state during the same time period.

To prepare for this year's onslaught of potential severe weather, officials are beginning to keep their proverbial eye to the sky.

Norman said he keeps in touch with the National Weather Service on a frequent basis and they have special meetings if severe weather is imminent.

In addition to keeping in touch with the weather service, local residents can play an integral role in helping warn residents about dangerous weather.

There will be a special training session held 7 p.m. April 10 at the Ionia County Intermediate School District facility to train people to become severe weather spotters.

“I would guess about 40 to 60 people will take the training,” Norman said.<>

People without a amateur radio can call or use the Internet to make reports to the weather service.

“The National Weather Service is able to issue localized warnings based on that stuff,” Norman said of the weather reports.

These warnings include outdoor sirens, television messages and alerts on the radio.

“You can't rely on one method of warning for severe weather,” Norman said.

He also said that in the future there will be the opportunity to notify people of impending severe weather via the City Watch system, which could potentially warn people with text messages and phone calls.

To close for comfort!




Experts say faulty storm predictions get too much press

By ROBERT P. KING

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Thursday, April 03, 2008

ORLANDO — Is too much Gray clouding hurricane forecasts?

Some storm experts think so. And on Wednesday, they urged the news media to pay less attention to the hurricane season predictions that have made veteran researcher William Gray one of the nation's most prominent weather prognosticators.

The problem, the critics say: Gray's forecasts have been wrong in the past few seasons, predicting too few hurricanes for the record-setting 2005 season and too many storms since.

In addition, they say the hoopla about Gray's number of projected storms obscures the urgent message of preparing for every season - even the quiet ones.

The criticism emerged at the National Hurricane Conference, an annual gathering where Gray is one of the brightest stars and traditionally gives the closing speech.

"I think the seasonal forecasts are a travesty for us to show," meteorologist Jim Cantore, a popular storm chaser for The Weather Channel, said during a morning chat session. "That's something we need to stop doing."

Jim Poling of the Florida News Network agreed: "I really like the idea of not publishing Dr. Gray's forecast. ... I think it's part of the hype."

Bob Breck, a longtime television meteorologist in New Orleans, even argued that Gray's predictions bite homeowners with higher insurance premiums.

"The insurance companies are using these numbers to keep our rates high," Breck said.

Gray shrugged off the brickbats, saying he's used to receiving "hate mail" for his work. He attributes much of it to the past two quiet seasons.

"Wait till we have an active season - then they'll change their minds," said Gray, a Colorado State University researcher whose next forecast comes out Tuesday.

His predictions draw on clues such as ocean temperatures and global air currents. After each season, Gray and his team publish an analysis of where they went wrong.

"I'm amazed what I've learned over 25 years," he said.

Gray's defenders include former National Hurricane Center Director Neil Frank, who said the forecasts have performed well in predicting whether a season will be calmer or busier than average.

"He's been very, very good," said Frank, who led the center from 1974 to 1987. "But it's a forecast, which means you're going to have some errors."

Bill Read, the new director, declined to comment on Gray's work. But he said the center's parent agency will seek less publicity than usual when it issues its own hurricane-season forecast later this spring.

Read urged the media to push a different message: "It only takes one storm to ruin your day."

RS

Hurricane Spawned Biggest Waves Ever Measured, Study Says

Hurricane Spawned Biggest Waves Ever Measured, Study Says

Hurricane Ivan, which struck U.S. shores September 15, 2004, kicked up the tallest, most extreme waves ever measured, scientists announced today.

At more than 90 feet (27 meters) tall from crest to trough and 600 feet (183 meters) long, the massive waves would "wipe out" a commercial fishing boat, said Douglas Mitchell. Mitchell is an oceanographer with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. he researchers estimated the wave heights using water pressure data from undersea sensors that had been placed in the Gulf of Mexico for a separate project. "Have you seen The Perfect Storm?" Mitchell said when asked to describe the extreme waves. The reference is to the Hollywood movie based on Sebastian Junger's best-selling book about an October 1991 storm in the Atlantic Ocean. In the movie, waves the size of ten-story buildings swamp a 70-foot long-liner (a type of fishing boat) and its six-person crew. Mitchell and Naval Research Laboratory colleagues David Wang, William Teague, Ewa Jarosz, and Mark Hulbert report their findings in tomorrow's issue of the journal Science.

The tallest measured wave was 91 feet (28 meters). The researchers believe they likely missed even larger waves because their sensors shut down before the most powerful region of the storm passed over them. "If we had been fortunate enough to sample the waves when peak winds were overhead, we'd expect to have seen waves in excess of 130 feet [40 meters] from crest to trough," team member William Teague said. At its peak intensity, the hurricane was a Category Five storm—the most powerful—with sustained winds of 161 miles an hour (259 kilometers an hour). Hurricane Ivan tore a deadly path across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in 2004. It struck the Gulf Coast on September 15 with 130 mile an hour (209 kilometer an hour) winds and was directly resposible for 92 deaths. But the extreme waves disintegrated in the choppy waters of the Gulf of Mexico, never making landfall.

Extreme Waves

The Naval Research Laboratory team obtained their wave measurements when Ivan passed directly over a series of six concrete-ringed instrument packages deployed on the ocean floor about 75 miles (121 kilometers) south of Gulfport, Mississippi. Scientists call these moorings "barnys" because they are shaped like barnacles. The barnys, which sat at depths between 196 and 295 feet (60 and 90 meters), collect current and water pressure data. They were placed in the gulf for a six-month-long project to form a comprehensive profile of the region's currents, Mitchell said. The timing and passage of the hurricane directly over the sensors was a fortuitous coincidence, Teague said.

An added bonus is that all the instruments survived the storm. The scientists calculated the wave heights from the changes in water pressure recorded by the sensors as waves passed overhead. "As waves go by, the pressure rises and falls," Teague said. To last for the six-month ocean current project, the barnys' batteries were designed to turn on for 8.5 minutes every 8 hours—long enough to record the passage of about 50 waves. Even though the barnys' operational time was staggered, none of the sensors were on when the strongest part of Ivan passed overhead.

Wave Science

cientists know little about the biggest ocean waves because most attempts to measure them have failed. For example, wave-measuring equipment attached to oil-drilling platforms often snaps off before a storm peaks. Prior to Ivan, computer models of wave formation during a hurricane suggested that monster waves topping 90 feet (27 meters) tall were rare. Thanks to the fortuitous placement of the barnys, this assumption is beginning to change. "The implication is waves generated by hurricanes are much larger than previously suspected.

Waves in excess of 90 feet aren't rogue but are fairly common during hurricanes," Teague said. According to team member David Wang, these insights will allow scientists to create better computer models of hurricane impacts. Such models, for example, could prompt engineers to build sturdier oil-drilling platforms. "The models can only be as good as the data provided," Wang said. "And we always want more [data]. There's more to be learned about how waves do form under hurricanes."

WEATHER NOTE

Storm chaser Bob Wade of Wisconsin sends us a couple of pix's of the twister damage to downtown Atlanta and Cabbage Town.

RS

Northeast At Risk, Hurricane Center Chief Warns

Northeast At Risk, Hurricane Center Chief Warns

By NEIL JOHNSON
The Tampa Tribune
Published: April 5, 2008

ORLANDO - The new director of the National Hurricane Center enters his first season seeking better predictions of when storm ferocity spikes and sounding the warning that the Northeast is the country's hurricane soft spot.

Bill Read sat down for an interview with the Tribune as the National Hurricane Conference got under way this week in Orlando.

What part of the country concerns you most as director of the hurricane center?

"New York and New England. They haven't been hit in a long time," Read said.

His reasoning: The area has a large population, is not hurricane savvy and storms reaching that far north are moving forward at up to 50 mph, leaving little time to persuade residents to prepare.

"Someday, they're going to get a repeat performance of 1938," he said.

A hurricane that year roared over New York and New England, surprising residents. An estimated 700 were killed and 63,000 were left homeless.

What factors unique to the Tampa Bay area should we be concerned about?

"It's kind of similar to Galveston. The floodwaters would go far inland," he said.

As in Texas, a storm surge from a major hurricane would push far from the Bay and could turn Pinellas County into two islands.

"You're one of the folks going a long time without a major hurricane," he said.

It has been more than 70 years since a major hurricane scored a direct hit on the Tampa Bay area, longer than New York or New England have gone.

During the 1800s, Read pointed out, a number of storms curved toward the Tampa Bay area rather than hitting to the south or in the Panhandle as they have done in recent years.

What progress is being made to restrict construction in vulnerable areas?

"That's a great question to ask someone in elected office," he said.

Houston, where he had been the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service office, has done little, Read said.

Is enough money being spent on equipment and research?

"The short answer is of course not. There is always need for more. That's always a function of budget issues," Read said.

Some years, he said, money goes to personnel or operation of the hurricane center. That money shows results for legislators.

"They can see that money," he said.

Results from money put into research are harder to determine, could be years away or never show up at all. Some research never works out, he said.

If resources are limited, where should they be focused?

"Money for research into intensification is the most important," Read said.

Hurricanes that grow rapidly pose the greatest threat and they are the most difficult to forecast.

Making better forecasts of those changes is a main focus of Read.

Last year's Hurricane Humberto, a short and weak Category 1 that was the only hurricane to hit the country, grew from a depression to a hurricane in less than 24 hours.

Had Humberto made that transition farther from land, it could have caused "heartburn" for people when it hit, Read said.

Three of four Category 3 or larger hurricanes that hit Texas in the last century jumped to major storm status in less than 48 hours.

Better forecasts of this transition lag behind improvements in forecasts of the track, he said.

"Intensity forecasts have shown no improvement."

How can intensity forecasts be improved?

Researchers are compiling what they need to find out about hurricanes when they change intensity in preparation for the launch of a new research project on the subject.

"The background work is being done now. We're still developing a plan for the project," he said.

The problem that the researchers face is that they don't really know what forces are at work to make a hurricane grow quickly from a fairly benign Category 1 to a Category 3 or larger.

So, first, the scientists have to find out why a hurricane goes through such rapid growth before they can put the data into a forecast model and predict when it will happen.

"Until you know what causes these things, you can't make a forecast," Read said.

How far down the line are significant improvements?

"Not soon," Read said.

When the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project is launched, it could take up to a decade to show the improvements that scientists hope to see.

"In five or 10 years our goal is to reduce the error in intensification forecasts to 50 percent. That's really stretching our goal," Read said.

That rate of improvement would surpass the 2 percent improvement each year that track forecasts have made for the past 15 years.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

WEATHER NOTE

Weather Currents Newsletter - Spring 2008

Spring Climate Outlook
By Tim Halbach, Climate Program Leader

With the snow season mainly done, and a decently cold winter that reminded people of what a typical winter used to be like across the Chicago area, most people are looking forward to the warmer conditions that this Spring and Summer will hopefully be bringing us…if temperatures can ever rise up to normal. With the snowiest meteorological winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) on record for Rockford, and the sixth snowiest meteorological winter in the books for Chicago, does this mean anything for our weather this spring? With La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean forecast to last through the spring and summer, does that mean anything for us? These questions and more are answered in the following write up. (Continued)

Experts say faulty storm predictions get too much press

By ROBERT P. KING
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Thursday, April 03, 2008

ORLANDO — Is too much Gray clouding hurricane forecasts?

Some storm experts think so. And on Wednesday, they urged the news media to pay less attention to the hurricane season predictions that have made veteran researcher William Gray one of the nation's most prominent weather prognosticators.

The problem, the critics say: Gray's forecasts have been wrong in the past few seasons, predicting too few hurricanes for the record-setting 2005 season and too many storms since.

In addition, they say the hoopla about Gray's number of projected storms obscures the urgent message of preparing for every season - even the quiet ones.

The criticism emerged at the National Hurricane Conference, an annual gathering where Gray is one of the brightest stars and traditionally gives the closing speech.

"I think the seasonal forecasts are a travesty for us to show," meteorologist Jim Cantore, a popular storm chaser for The Weather Channel, said during a morning chat session. "That's something we need to stop doing."

Jim Poling of the Florida News Network agreed: "I really like the idea of not publishing Dr. Gray's forecast. ... I think it's part of the hype."

Bob Breck, a longtime television meteorologist in New Orleans, even argued that Gray's predictions bite homeowners with higher insurance premiums.

"The insurance companies are using these numbers to keep our rates high," Breck said.

Gray shrugged off the brickbats, saying he's used to receiving "hate mail" for his work. He attributes much of it to the past two quiet seasons.

"Wait till we have an active season - then they'll change their minds," said Gray, a Colorado State University researcher whose next forecast comes out Tuesday.

His predictions draw on clues such as ocean temperatures and global air currents. After each season, Gray and his team publish an analysis of where they went wrong.

"I'm amazed what I've learned over 25 years," he said.

Gray's defenders include former National Hurricane Center Director Neil Frank, who said the forecasts have performed well in predicting whether a season will be calmer or busier than average.

"He's been very, very good," said Frank, who led the center from 1974 to 1987. "But it's a forecast, which means you're going to have some errors."

Bill Read, the new director, declined to comment on Gray's work. But he said the center's parent agency will seek less publicity than usual when it issues its own hurricane-season forecast later this spring.

Read urged the media to push a different message: "It only takes one storm to ruin your day."

Tornado safety tips for wherever you are

By DOMINGO RAMIREZ JR.

Star-Telegram staff writer

HALTOM CITY -- For residents new to Texas, it's time to formulate a severe weather plan -- particularly for tornadoes.

For you natives, just get the old plan ready.

With spring comes the potential for severe weather, and area emergency management coordinators are urging residents to be prepared for the hail, heavy rain and tornadoes that could accompany storms.

And there will be storms. North Texas is in tornado alley, an area known as an incubator for devastating tornadoes.

Some area residents have built storm shelters and "safe" rooms as a means to survive Mother Nature's wrath, but if you don't have such a place to go, there are still steps you can take, according to the American Red Cross and area emergency management coordinators. The procedures include:

If you are in a vehicle, get out immediately. Take shelter in a sturdy building. If there is no building, go to a low-lying area until the storm passes. Officials do not recommend taking cover under bridges and overpasses.

"You should never try to outrun tornadoes if you're in a vehicle," said Perry Bynum, emergency management coordinator in Haltom City. "So many times last year, I saw videos of tornadoes in the area and there were cars and trunks driving around."

On April 13, a tornado hit Haltom City, killing a man and causing about $1 million in damage.

If you are in a high-rise building: Pick a place in a hallway in the center of the building. Center hallways are often structurally the most reinforced part of the building.

If you live in a mobile home: Choose a safe place in a nearby sturdy building. Mobile homes are much more vulnerable to strong winds.

Pick a safe place in your home where family members can gather. The safest place is underground and away from all windows, but many North Texas houses do not have basements. An interior hallway or a room on the lowest floor is the best choice. Officials say putting as many walls as you can between you and the outside wall will help.

"Most injuries from tornadoes and high-wind storms are caused by glass and flying debris," said Anita Foster, a spokeswoman for the American Red Cross in Fort Worth. "You want to look for the most interior part of your home without any windows."

Officials encourage families to have 72-hour preparedness kits in their homes. The kits should include keys, cash, first-aid supplies, can openers, food that won't spoil, candles, matches, water, flashlights and batteries.

"It would also be important to have a portable radio so you can hear the weather reports," said Sean Hughes, North Richland Hills' emergency management coordinator.

Check with your workplace and your children's schools and day-care centers. Learn about their tornado emergency plans. Every building has different safe places. It is important to know where they are and how to get there in an emergency.

Discuss tornadoes with your family. Everyone should know what to do, in case all family members are not together. Officials say that discussing disaster plans reduces fear and helps everyone know how to respond.

"The best time to make a tornado plan is while the sky is blue," Foster said. "Once it's green and rotating, it's just too late."

Texas tornadoes

Each year, Texas is among the states with the most tornadoes, and forecasters believe that 2008 will be no different. Here are the most recent statistics for the state:

1996: 138

1997: 191

1998: 123

1999: 179

2000: 147

2001: 137

2002: 173

2003: 155

2004: 179

2005: 105

Source: National Climatic Data Center

ramirez@star-telegram.com
DOMINGO RAMIREZ JR., 817-685-3822

MARITIME NOTE

New Carissa removal project: Crew, gear moving in on wreck

By Jolene Guzman, Staff Writer

Saturday, April 5, 2008 8:13 AM PDT

The Karlissa A and Karlissa B are being prepped like prize fighters.

Titan Maritime’s two jack-up barges, which will serve as the work platforms for the removal of the shipwreck of the New Carissa, arrived from the Dominican Republic last Saturday. They have four to six weeks to work up the challenge. Round one is scheduled to start May 15.

Phil Reed, Titan’s director of engineering, hopes gloves will touch a bit sooner. His goal is to have the imposing barges with their gargantuan cranes and beach staging site ready by May 1.

All that will be left then will be the wait for good weather. Reed said Titan needs calm seas to take the barges out to the New Carissa stern, preferably swells of no more than 3 feet. The barges, once ready, will be docked at Sause Brothers Ocean Towing Facility in Empire to wait for perfect conditions.

“We are not going out there unless it’s a really nice day,” Reed said.

It wasn’t a nice day on Feb. 4, 1999, when the wood chip ship ran aground.

Nine years later, Titan gets to clean up the remains. The May 1 start date may be a little ambitious, considering how much work remains to be done.

The huge steel tubes out at Central Dock in Coos Bay are the legs of the barges. The giant tubes, each originally 150 feet long, were cut up for transport into three pieces — two 60-foot-long pieces and one 30 feet long. Crews will weld the two bigger pieces together to provide the needed height for the project. Each leg will be jammed 30 feet into the sand to stabilize the barges near the wreck. Putting the legs back together again is the biggest project on Titan’s to-do list in the next couple of weeks.

The Karlissa B’s 300-ton-capacity crane, nicknamed “Big Red,” is in the process of being repaired and repainted before installation on the barge. The other towering red crane at the dock next to the two barges will be placed on the Karlissa A.

Titan is using local businesses and resources for the prep work.

West Coast Contractors of Coos Bay helped put together the crane at Central Dock. Reed said Titan enlisted that crew to do more work on the barges.

“I’m just glad to be working at home right now,” Karlissa B crew member Jason Snelgrove said Thursday.

Snelgrove was working in Newport when the New Carissa’s bow ran aground near Waldport in March 1999, after the towline snapped as it was being pulled out to sea. He hasn’t been out to see the stubborn stern section yet, but may have the opportunity while working with Titan on the removal.

“However long they will have us, we will stay with them,” Snelgrove said.

Knutson Diesel and Machine is fabricating the 31-foot-tall tower that will connect the barges to the beach staging site, approximately 1,000 feet away from the New Carissa. The tower connection will be via an overhead cable car line. Crews and equipment will travel back and forth from the barges in the 6-ton-capacity car.

The staging area construction won’t begin until near the end of this month, after the last of the required temporary permits are issued. The staging area will include a temporary bypass road around the work area to allow alternate access to the North Spit.

Once work starts, the New Carissa will be taken apart a little bit at a time.

Deconstruction

Titan crews will cut up the vessel’s stern and remove the pieces using the cranes. Cutters will detach most of each piece of metal, but leave a 6- to 8-inch piece called a hanger so the cut can be secured to the crane. Once the pieces are rigged to the crane, the hanger will be cut and the metal transferred to one of the barges. Each piece will then be “flat packed,” cut to a size and shape that is easier to store on the deck. Reed said Titan intends to cut, process and store all the scrap metal on the barges until the job is done.

Crews will start working on the top of the wreck. Reed said that will be the easy part and may give onlookers the impression the job will be done fairly quickly.

“In the first couple of weeks, you will see a big difference,” he said. “The steel on top will be easy.”

Dealing with what is underneath, including the 250-ton main engine, will present the real challenge and take the most time. Still, Reed anticipates the work will be done well before the October deadline.

As crews work on the top portion, six pulling machines connected to the New Carissa by bulky anchor chains will pull on the wreck. Reed said the New Carissa may move right away under the pulling power or stay put until some of its bulk is hauled off. Pullers will progressively lift the New Carissa out of the sand.

“We are actually going to bring the bottom to us, rather than go down and work in conditions that are near impossible to work with,” Reed said.

Titan’s contract with the state stipulates crews can leave the portion under the sand line, but Reed said Titan is aiming at leaving no portion behind.

“For us, that is harder,” Reed said “We would rather follow the plan.”

To slice the wreck off at the sand line, a diver would have to cut while in the surf, a process which can be dangerous and inefficient, Reed said. The movement of the surf will prevent an even cut and divers could possibly be injured in the process.

A summer work window was chosen because of the favorable weather, but if nasty weather strikes, crews shouldn’t be stalled completely. The barges should be secure, no matter what is thrown at them, Reed said. Strong winds could shut down the cranes and possibly the overhead cable car.

If wind does prevent use of the cranes, workers can work on cutting the scrap pieces to storable sizes or work on removing sand from the wreck.

“We won’t be completely shut down unless things get really bad,” he said.

Though the Titan’s plan includes being as weather-independent as possible, the New Carissa’s location does present unique challenges.

Reed, who has worked with Titan since 1993, first as a consultant and, since 2000, as a full-time project engineer, said he hasn’t worked in these particular conditions.

“This is first time I’ve been in such an active surf zone,” he said.

Titan has been following the attempts to haul off the New Carissa from when it first ran aground. He thinks using the stable jack-up barges may be the answer to the stuck stern. Titan crews have had experience with large wrecks and have worked in surf zones, but the question remains as to how quickly crews can work with both challenges.

“We’ve cut up wrecks bigger than this,” Reed said. “But not one sitting in the surf zone.”

RS

Lake freighters get going despite ice

Lake freighters get going despite ice

By Joe Knaapen
Gannett Wisconsin Media March 26, 2008

STURGEON BAY -- The winter fleet at Bay Shipbuilding Co. has begun the annual spring migration to the Soo Locks.

Four freighters — the 1,000-footers Paul R. Tregurtha and Edgar B. Speer, and the 767-foot Arthur M. Anderson and the 806-foot Charles M. Beeghly — left Sturgeon Bay Sunday in the race to be first through the locks at Sault Ste. Marie.

The freighters ran into heavy ice on Green Bay, and were delayed despite tracks cut by the Coast Guard cutter Mackinaw and maintained by the cutter Mobile Bay and commercial tugs.

The freighters coming out of Bay Ship lost the race to the Cason J. Calloway, which sailed out of Erie, Pa., and was first through the Soo.

“There’s plate ice out there a couple of feet thick,” said Lt. Cdr. Matt Smith, commander of the Mobile Bay, which makes its home port in Sturgeon Bay.

After the Mackinaw cut a track south to Sturgeon Bay and returned back north to the Soo, Smith said the Mobile Bay was assigned to keep the path open for commercial traffic. Temperatures turned cold over the weekend, however, bringing ice back into the cut.

While the commercial tug Erica Kobasic out of Escanaba handled close escort work, the Mobile Bay widened the track north from the Sherwood Point light at the mouth of Sturgeon Bay to the Rock Island Passage, which connects Green Bay to Lake Michigan between Rock Island and Michigan’s Garden Peninsula.

Starting Tuesday, the Mobile Bay began cutting a track from Sherwood Point south to Green Bay, opening its port to ship traffic, Smith said.

The opening of the Soo Locks each spring begins the commercial shipping season on the Great Lakes.

The locks and St. Mary’s River provide a link between Lake Superior — where iron ore mined in Minnesota is stockpiled at shore ports — and the lower lakes, where mills that use the raw material line the shores from southeastern Wisconsin to upstate New York.

Traditionally, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which operates the locks, more than 4,000 vessels carry up to 90 million tons of cargo through the locks every year. Most vessels transport iron ore; others carry coal, grain or stone.

North of the Soo, the Mackinaw has laid out tracks in ice 2-4 feet thick since March 14, said Lt. Cdr. John Little, who commands the Coast Guard’s largest and newest ice-breaker.

The 240-foot Mackinaw cut paths north from the locks to Whitefish Point, where freighters can find open water heading toward Minnesota ports such as Duluth, Taconite Harbor and Twin Harbors.

The Mackinaw escorted the through the locks early March 25, and ready for the next two northbound freighters and the southbound 1,000-foot Edwin Gott, which was downbound from Twin Harbors, Minn., with taconite for Gary, Ind.

The season has been Mackinaw’s busiest, said Little, who commanded Mobile Bay out of Sturgeon Bay a few years ago.

So far this month, the Mackinaw, which was commissioned in 2006, has served as host to Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Thad Allan and a crew from the Weather Channel.

At Bay Ship, the ship movement means the crew of about 700 workers are under pressure to put the finishing touches on myriad details needed to put the winter fleet — 18 ships this season — back to work.

Nine freighters remain in port and most are expected to be gone by the end of March.

The phrase “winter fleet” applies to all the ships — from ferry boats to superfreighters — that make Bay Ship their home for the winter for repairs, inspections, surveys or offseason docking.

“We had a lot of late arrivals, boats coming in in mid-March,” said Todd Thayse, who manages repair services at Bay Ship.

By the end of the week, he added, all but three ships will have cleared the yard in Sturgeon Bay.

“There was heavy cargo demand, so they stayed out for an additional trip,” Thayse said of the ore carriers. “The steel industry is strong, so the demand is there for them to get back out there.”

Since mid-January, Bay Ship has worked three shift, seven days a week to get the repairs completed on time for captains and owners who are anxious to resume moving cargo, Thayse said.

“Everybody is trying to get out,” Thayse said. “They have to be careful because there’s heavy plate ice out there. The winds can move the plates, and take the ships right along with it.”

Demand was so heavy, Thayse said, that three freighters — the 1,000-footers Burns Harbor and Stewart J. Cort and 728-foot Joe Block — wintering in Milwaukee under the Bay Ship umbrella left earlier this month to haul taconite out of Escanaba.

Heavy ice conditions on Green Bay are helping convince some captains to use the ship canal and go east out of Bay Ship through Sturgeon Bay to Lake Michigan, Thayse said.

The captains are weighing the time savings and risks of traveling on low water through two downtown bridges and the Bayview Bridge over State 42-57 compared with potential delays in heavy ice by going west to Green Bay and north to Rock Island.

WEATHER NOTE

Investigating Weather Systems in the Montessori Classroom

North Carolina is in a severe drought. Currently, we are short approximately 10.5 inches of rain for the past two years. Severe water restrictions are in effect and hearing that neighboring towns have less than 100 days of water left is a frequent occurrence. That being said, we are entering our rainy spring season which also brings months of tornado warnings. Naturally curious, children want to know what causes weather, especially severe weather.

The Montessori classroom is a great place for children to learn, explore, and research naturally occurring phenomenon such as thunderstorms, hurricanes, and tornados. These concepts are usually introduced during the upper elementary years. Here, in North Carolina, we experience both hurricanes and tornados and this is enough to spur discussion and interest. If you live someplace where these weather systems do not occur, you can peak student interest by announcing that there are approximately 40,000 thunderstorms around the globe each day and that the class will have an opportunity to investigate how thunderstorms, hurricanes, and tornados form.

Before presenting these lessons to the children, it is important to have illustrative charts made of sea and land breezes, cold fronts, and warm fronts, as well as a map of high and low pressure systems and a variety of photographs (or video) of thunderstorms, hurricanes, and tornados. There is also a variety of vocabulary that needs to be explained before children can begin their investigations.

• Sea breeze
• Land breeze
• Cold front
• Warm front
• High pressure system
• Low pressure system
• Convection
• Coriolis effect

It may be helpful to watch the weather reports together over a period of several days in order to discuss and understand the terminology. You might also gather the weather report over a period of about two weeks and make predictions as a class as to what weather will be developing.

For more information for teachers, visit the National Hurricane Center website.

For informative, interactive games for students, visit Federal Emergency Management Agency website.

NAMC’s Upper Elementary Physical Geography curriculum manual provides background information and presentations on many weather related topics, including: Weather Systems and Weather Maps, Investigating Hurricanes and Thunderstorms, and Investigating Cold and Warm Fronts.

Tornado preparation key in central Illinois

With twister season under way, being ready for disaster is vital

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

By Brian Feldt

Of The Journal Star

Peoria - When it comes to natural disasters, preparation is of the utmost importance.

With that in mind, the American Red Cross is urging people to take steps today to prepare for the tornadoes of tomorrow.

Tornado season officially began Tuesday, and will run through the end of June. And while central Illinois lies on the outskirts of the infamous Tornado Alley, the area is certainly no stranger to twisters.

Of the 15 counties in Illinois that have seen the most tornadoes since 1950, Tazewell and Woodford counties rank fifth and seventh, respectively. Then take into account that Illinois is annually one of the most affected states by twisters - 41 per year - and early precaution seems like a no-brainer.

"It is incredibly important," American Red Cross Central Illinois Chapter communications director Vickie Parry said. "The threat is very real, probably one of the more real threats of disasters we have in central Illinois. They can happen at anytime."

Which makes preparation all the more important, said Mike Hardiman, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Lincoln. He said since tornadoes are typically not easy to forecast on a long-term scale, people should always be cautious of severe weather possibilities.

"Absolutely it makes it important for preparation, because we don't necessarily have the means to know when tornadoes can happen," Hardiman said. "But one could say that since we had an active winter, we could have an active spring."

Just the thought of a spring more active than Peoria's winter ought to prompt action.

"We can't prevent them, but we can certainly help people be more prepared so they can be more safe," Parry said.

Parry said traditional tips such as seeking shelter in a basement or a low-lying area are always relevant, but smaller details are just as vital.

Making sure children know what county they live in and how to locate it on a map can make a big difference as tornado warnings and watches are typically issued on a county-by-county basis. Also knowing the difference between a tornado warning and watch is valuable. A watch is when the threat of a tornado exists while a warning means a tornado has already touched ground.

"What we find is that kids, especially if they are watching TV, know they live in Peoria or Morton or wherever," Parry said. "But they may not know what county they live in, and that is important. If people can just take a few minutes to talk with their families on what to do in case of an emergency, it can go a long way."

Brian Feldt can be reached at 686-3194 or bfeldt@pjstar.com.

MARITIME NOTE

Salvager tells of Napoli operation

OTTERY Rotarians had an insight into the salvage of the MSC Napoli thanks to a visit from a salvage expert working on the job.

Kees Van Essen, the senior salvage manager from Dutch company SMIT, arrived at the Tumbling Weir Hotel this week to give a detailed view of the company's work on the stricken ship.

The hastily convened meeting covered the whole incident from the ship's grounding, in Janaury 2007, when high seas caused it to lose containers off the coast at Branscombe.

It also covered its unloading and subsequent removal.

Otter Valley Rotarian Chris Pink said: "It was a real coup for Ottery to have him come from Holland and speak.

"I sent him an e-mail and he said maybe but, as he was so busy, he could not commit."

Mr Pink said he then received a surprise phone call last week to say SMIT would cover the expenses and Mr Essen would be available on Tuesday evening."

Mr Pink said: "It was a fascinating evening and Rotarians from across the area came to hear him detail the whole picture from start to finish.

"It gave a real insight into the difficulties they faced as storms continued to damage containers throughout the operation.

"He had a massive amount of experience from previous incidents such as the Sea Empress."

Mr Pink managed to secure Mr Van Essen through his own contacts in the shipping industry.

Prior to retirement he was the secretary of the International Maritime Organisation, the United Nations' specialised agency responsible for improving maritime safety and preventing pollution from ships.

The talk was part of a programme of events to increase membership of the Otter Valley Rotary Club.

Enjoy your weekend!

RS