Hurricanes and Climate Change: NCAR Launches Intensive Study into Future Hurricane Risk

Hurricanes and Climate Change: NCAR Launches Intensive Study into Future Hurricane Risk

BOULDER—The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), working with federal agencies and universities as well as the insurance and energy industries, has launched an intensive study to examine how global warming will influence hurricanes in the next few decades. The goal of the project is to better inform coastal communities, offshore drilling operations, and other interests that could be affected by changes in hurricanes.

The project will use a combination of global climate and regional weather models, run on one of the world's most powerful supercomputers, to look at future hurricane activity in unprecedented detail. Researchers are targeting the hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea to assess the likely changes, between now and the middle of the century, in the frequency, intensity, and paths of these powerful storms. Initial results are expected early next year.

"It is clear from the impacts of recent hurricane activity that we urgently need to learn more about how hurricane intensity and behavior may respond to a warming climate," says NCAR scientist Greg Holland, who is leading the project. "The increasingly dense development along our coastlines and our dependence on oil from the Gulf of Mexico leave our society dangerously vulnerable to hurricanes."

Greg Holland. [ENLARGE] (Photo by Carlye Calvin, ©UCAR.)

The new study follows two major reports, by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that found evidence for a link between global warming and hurricane activity. But many questions remain about future hurricanes. For example, the CCSP report concluded that future changes in frequency were uncertain and that rainfall and intensity were likely to increase, but with unknown consequences.

Improved understanding of climate change and hurricanes is an especially high priority for the energy industry, which has a concentration of drilling platforms, refineries, pipelines, and other infrastructure in a region that is vulnerable to severe weather. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike damaged offshore oil production and several refineries, disrupting gasoline supplies.

The project is part of a larger effort examining regional climate change between 1995 and 2055. The simulations are being run on NCAR's bluefire supercomputer with support from the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor, and through a long-term collaboration with the insurance industry through the Willis Research Network. Additional backing is expected from the Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America, a nonprofit consortium that includes the U.S. Department of Energy and several energy companies. The Georgia Institute of Technology is collaborating on the research, and other universities are also involved.

"This research program by NCAR is a major contribution to the insurance industry and public policymakers," says Rowan Douglas, managing director of Willis. "The primary way to improve our understanding of present and future hurricane risk is to generate computer simulations of storms in unprecedented detail. NCAR's work is at the forefront of this critical line of research, helping those with onshore and offshore risks in the Gulf, and with relevance to all affected by tropical cyclones in the United States and worldwide."

The research plan

For this new NCAR project, researchers will examine three decades in detail: 1995-2005, 2020-2030, and 2045-2055. They will use statistical techniques to fill in the gaps between these decades. A major goal is to examine how several decades of greenhouse-gas buildup could affect regional climate and, in turn, influence hurricanes and other critical weather features. The team will also investigate the impact of the powerful storms on global climate.

Offshore platforms. The dense cluster of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico is vulnerable to hurricanes. Personnel are often evacuated when a major storm is imminent, and damage to the structures is not uncommon. [ENLARGE] (Image courtesy of the American Petroleum Institute, based on data from the Minerals Management Service of the U.S. Department of the Interior.) News media terms of us

One of the most difficult technical challenges for such a project is to create a model that can capture both the climate of the entire world and the behavior of a single hurricane. Models simulate weather conditions at thousands of points in a three-dimensional grid that represents the atmosphere. If the points are spaced far apart, as in a coarse-resolution global climate model, the model will run more quickly on a supercomputer but it cannot simulate a hurricane in realistic detail. Conversely, a high-resolution regional weather model can simulate a hurricane with a core that is just a few miles across, but it may not correctly include factors driven by global-scale warming that could affect hurricane formation, such as changes in wind shear and atmospheric stability.

To get around these roadblocks, NCAR scientists are integrating two of the center's leading models into the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM). They nest a special version of their high-resolution weather model (the Weather Research and Forecasting model, or WRF) inside a lower-resolution, global climate model (the Community Climate System Model, or CCSM).

The resulting simulations show fine-scale detail for certain regions, like the Gulf of Mexico, while also incorporating global climate patterns. For each of its decade-long time slices, the NRCM's resolution will be about 20 miles across Africa, Europe, and the South Atlantic; 7.5 miles across the tropical Atlantic and northeastern United States; and an even sharper 2.5 miles over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, southeastern United States, and the drought-prone western United States.

"Combining weather and climate models in this way enables more detailed projections of hurricanes in a warming world than any study to date," says Holland. "These projections will help reduce the uncertainty of current assessments, and they also give us experience in predicting changes to other high-impact weather systems."

With its considerable requirements, the project is putting months of intense demand on bluefire, NCAR's flagship supercomputer. Manufactured by IBM, it is ranked as one of the 50 most powerful computers on Earth and can solve up to 76 trillion equations every second.

"The NRCM is one of the most intensive computer simulations we have witnessed at NCAR," says Tom Bettge, director of operations and services for NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. "As we evaluate future North American climate in increasing detail, we will look to even bigger and faster high-performance computers."

WEATHER NOTE

Emergency Shelters in Churches: A Regional Panel in Blanco County

By George Barnett

How do you turn a church into an emergency shelter — and make it work? And is there a role for small churches?

A regional panel on emergency shelters in local churches will be held Saturday morning in Johnson City.

The panelists will cover ways to make shelters work better in churches, based on their experiences with church shelters over decades past...and as recently as last month.

The panel is sponsored by the Blanco County Disaster Response Group, and will include:

• Mike McEuen, Disaster Response Chairman, Broadmoor United Methodist Church, Baton Rouge, La., on the disaster shelter plan his church developed and used including for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Gustav.

• Jean Krohn, volunteer shelter manager, American Red Cross, Fredericksburg, on her many years of experience establishing shelters in churches throughout the country, most recently for Hurricane Ike.

• BW “Sonny” Payne, First Presbyterian Church, Kerrville, on how his church adapted to and supported the Red Cross shelter set up in his facility for evacuees from Hurricane Ike.

• Amy BeVille Elder, executive director, Texas Interagency Interfaith Disaster Response (TIDR), Austin, on her experiences with major metro shelters and the advantages she has found churches can add to the process.

The panelists’ descriptions will cover the best and worst of experiences and the lessons they learned from them. One lesson: you don’t need a big church to make a big difference.

“The need for churches as shelter in emergencies is obvious,” said George Cofran, moderator of the BCDRG panel, “there are a lot more of them than there are public facilities, and they can be opened quicker and easier than government buildings. In addition, a church is already in the business of providing care and emotional support to people, which may not be as readily available from a government operation.”

“That’s not to say churches should replace government facilities as shelters,” Cofran added.

Sometimes one fits the need better, sometimes the other, and often a united effort is best.

That cooperation includes small churches working together to provide the different shelter functions.

One may have the building space, while a second can prepare a meal for shelter residents, a third can provide childcare, or transportation, or just contribute some of the needed volunteers.

How does that work? Find out Saturday morning at 9:30 in the Activity Building of the First United Methodist Church, north Avenue N at Pecan in Johnson City.

The panel discussion is free and no advance registration is required.

MARITIME NOTE

The top 10 deficiencies in Small Passenger Vessels as noted by the CG Marine Inspectors

The purpose of this analysis was to identify the 10 most common deficiencies to help Small Passenger Vessel Owners by shedding some light on vessel problems that they can rectify prior to scheduling their next Coast Guard examination.

The top 10 deficiencies, including a brief explanation of the deficiency, applicable regulation, and potential correction methods are provided below. These deficiencies are not listed in any specific order.

Additional information regarding Domestic Vessel Inspection is available on the Sector’s Homeport website at http://homeport.uscg.mil/sene.

More information can be found under the Domestic Vessels (Streamlined Inspection Program) section at the following website to assist you with performing a self inspection of your passenger vessel prior to your annual Coast Guard examination: http://homeport.uscg.mil

LIGHT GUARDS MISSING
All light fixtures that may be subject to damage must have a guard or be made of high strength material. Light fixtures on the open weather deck, engine room, or other machinery space must be protected with guards. Lights in accommodation spaces are normally exempted from this requirement because they are not subject to damage. (46 CFR 183.410)

EPIRB HYDROSTATIC RELEASE EXPIRED
All small passenger vessels that are certificated to operate on the high seas or three miles beyond the coastline of the Great Lakes must have a FCC Type Accepted Category 1, 406 MHz Emergency Position Indicating Radiobeacon (EPIRB) installed in a float free system on board the vessel. The Marine Inspectors discovered that many small passenger vessels failed to replace the hydrostatic release prior to its expiration date. Vessel owners/operators should inspect their EPIRBs routinely and ensure that they operate properly. The hydrostatic release unit for the EPIRB must be replaced prior to expiration to ensure that it will successfully release the EPIRB should the vessel sink. (46 CFR 180.64)

NAVIGATION CHARTS OUTDATED OR MISSING
All certificated small passenger vessels must carry appropriate navigational charts that cover the area in which they operate. These charts must be kept current using regularly published Notices to Mariners. Many vessels that received deficiencies for outdated or missing navigation charts were also found to be missing other required nautical publications which include the U.S. Coast Pilot, Coast Guard Light List, Tide Tables, and Current Tables. Vessels may use extracts from these publications in lieu of maintaining the complete publication on their vessel. (46 CFR 184.420)

EXPIRED FIRST AID KIT MEDICATION
All certificated small passenger vessels must have a first aid kit approved under 33 CFR 160.041 or one that contains all required contents listed in 160.041. The most common deficiency with first aid kits is expired medications. When an expired medication is discovered, it must be replaced promptly. Individual items in CG approved first aid kits may be replaced as necessary with equivalent medications. Just because one item in a first aid kit is expired does not mean that the whole kit must be replaced! (46 CFR 184.710 & 33 CFR 160.041)

DEAD END WIRES
All cables or wires must serve some piece of equipment or system onboard the vessel. In situations where a piece of equipment or system is removed and not replaced, the cable or wire that serviced the equipment or system must also be properly removed from the power supply. (46 CFR 183.340)

DETERIORATED HULL MATERIAL
Routine examinations of a vessel’s hull both internally and externally are critical to the safety of a vessel. Wood vessels are notorious for having wasted wood planking and deteriorated fasteners. Steel and Aluminum hulled vessels are prone to get cracked welds following allisions with objects such as docks and also due to routine operations in rough seas. Steel is also prone to rusting, especially in areas where the plating is uncoated or where the coating may have failed. Fiberglass hulled vessels are also subject to hull deterioration due to delamination, blisters, or cracks/knicks in the gel coat which can allow water to permeate through the various layers of fiberglass and weaken the hull structure. Vessel owners/operators should make a concerted effort to examine all accessible internal hull components including through hull fittings on a regular basis. Identifying problems early can prevent costly repairs or even major hull damage in the future. (46 CFR 189.40; NVIC 7-68; NVIC 8-87; NVIC 7-95)

INOPERABLE BILGE ALARM
All certificated small passenger vessels greater than 26 feet, regardless of build date, must have visual and audible bilge high level alarms for normally unmanned spaces that might flood, whether from a fractured through-hull fitting below the deepest load waterline, spaces containing charged sea water sea water piping, and spaces with a non-watertight closure, such as a space with a non-watertight hatch on the main deck. Vessels constructed of wood must also provide bilge level alarms in all watertight compartments except small buoyancy chambers. Testing bilge level alarms and visual indicators are relatively easy to perform and should be conducted on a regular basis to ensure proper operation of the bilge alarm system. (46 CFR 182.530)

PORTABLE HAND BILGE PUMP MISSING OR INOPERABLE
As per Table 182.520(a), specific small passenger vessels are permitted to have portable hand bilge pumps as a secondary or emergency means of dewatering a space. In many of the examination activities reviewed, vessel owners failed to maintain a portable pump onboard but in most of the activities, the portable pump was either inoperable or not usable in all spaces of the vessel. The regulations require that the portable hand bilge pump be capable of pumping water from all watertight compartments on the vessel which means that the suction hose must be long enough to reach the deepest part of the vessel. Vessel owners or operators should test their portable hand bilge pumps on a regular basis to ensure proper operation. (46 CFR 182.520(b))

FCC STATION LICENSE MISSING
Marine Radios, EPIRBs, and AIS equipment required to be installed on small passenger vessels must comply with FCC requirements including FCC issued station licenses mandated in 47 CFR 8.13. Many certificated small passenger vessels are issued deficiencies for not having an FCC Station License for their marine radio. (46 CFR 184.502 & 47 CFR 80.13)

NAVIGATION LIGHTS INOPERABLE
All vessels must have navigation lights in accordance with the International and Inland Navigation Rules. During safety examinations, many vessels are found to have inoperable stern, mast, and sidelights. In some instances the installation of these lights was also found to conflict
with the International and Inland Navigation Rules. Vessels of greater than 65 feet in length must also have navigation lights that are compliant with UL 1104 standards. Though many vessels normally operate in daylight hours only, vessel owners/operators should test their navigational lights prior to each voyage to ensure proper operation. (46 CFR 183.420)

RS

Gravity Waves Make Tornados

Gravity Waves Make Tornadoes

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March 19, 2008: Did you know that there's a new breakfast food that helps meteorologists predict severe storms? Down South they call it "GrITs."

GrITs stands for Gravity wave Interactions with Tornadoes. "It's a computer model I developed to study how atmospheric gravity waves interact with severe storms," says research meteorologist Tim Coleman of the National Space Science and Technology Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

According to Coleman, wave-storm interactions are very important. If a gravity wave hits a rotating thunderstorm, it can sometimes spin that storm up into a tornado.

Above: Click on the image to watch a gravity wave roll over Tama, Iowa, on May 7, 2006. Credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet Webcam.

What is an atmospheric gravity wave? Coleman explains: "They are similar to waves on the surface of the ocean, but they roll through the air instead of the water. Gravity is what keeps them going. If you push water up and then it plops back down, it creates waves. It's the same with air."

Coleman left his job as a TV weather anchor in Birmingham to work on his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. "I'm having fun," he says, but his smile and enthusiasm already gave that away.

"You can see gravity waves everywhere," he continues. "When I drove in to work this morning, I saw some waves in the clouds. I even think about wave dynamics on the water when I go fishing now."

Gravity waves get started when an impulse disturbs the atmosphere. An impulse could be, for instance, a wind shear, a thunderstorm updraft, or a sudden change in the jet stream. Gravity waves go billowing out from these disturbances like ripples around a rock thrown in a pond.

When a gravity wave bears down on a rotating thunderstorm, it compresses the storm. This, in turn, causes the storm to spin faster. To understand why, Coleman describes an ice skater spinning with her arms held straight out. "Her spin increases when she pulls her arms inward." Ditto for spinning storms: When they are compressed by gravity waves, they spin faster to conserve angular momentum.

"There is also wind shear in a gravity wave, and the storm can take that wind shear and tilt it and make even more spin. All of these factors may increase storm rotation, making it more powerful and more likely to produce a tornado."

"We've also seen at least one case of a tornado already on the ground (in Birmingham, Alabama, on April 8, 1998) which may have become more intense as it interacted with a gravity wave."

Above: Click on the graphic to play an actual Doppler radar movie of a gravity wave interacting with a rotating thunderstorm and making it stronger in northwest Alabama on Jan. 22, 1999. Credit: NOAA.

Coleman also points out that gravity waves sometimes come in sets, and with each passing wave, sometimes the tornado or rotating storm will grow stronger.

Tim and his boss, Dr. Kevin Knupp, are beginning the process of training National Weather Service and TV meteorologists to look for gravity waves in real-time, and to use the theories behind the GrITs model to modify forecasts accordingly.

Who would have thought grits could predict bad weather? "Just us meteorologists in Alabama," laughs Coleman. Seriously, though, Gravity wave Interactions with Tornadoes could be the next big thing in severe storm forecasting.

Weather Notes

Spring Yields Tame To Tempest

The long awaited spring will arrive none too soon. With it comes more tolerable temperatures and those flower sprouting showers you hear songs about. But the core of this season’s rain activity isn’t portrayed as gentle showers as much as in pounding thunderstorms. The contrast in temperature between the receding grip of winter and summer’s northward advance will determine their intensity. Storms can vary from a distant annoyance to a raging overhead fury. Your best defense is to hope for the best while preparing for the worst. Your first line of defense when threatening weather approaches is not to panic. Cooler heads prevail. Should you hear sirens alerting you of impending danger, or you personally see damage occurring from advancing storms, seek shelter along the wall of your basement. If you have no basement, retreat to a central first floor room with no outside walls. This could be a bathroom or closet.

Let’s prepare even further ahead. While the weather is placid, make a plan now for where you will go when the worst occurs. Should your home become unlivable after an event, you will need a money resource and ID to hold out until your home is restored. To avoid these things being lost in the storm, prepare now what you will collect enroute to your shelter. Know where these items are at all times so you don’t spend precious time looking for them. Keep a bag or satchel at the ready to collect them on the run. Some of these items should include any cash, your checkbook, charge cards, driver’s license, and your car keys in case your vehicle survives. This is your survival kit, the seed to putting your life back together.

The National Weather Service classifies “severe” thunderstorms as producing ¾ inch diameter hail or greater, strong wind downbursts of 58 mph or more, or a storm producing a tornado. National outlooks for the probability of severe storms will be issued days ahead of time with suspected trouble areas covering whole regions of the country. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches are usually issued hours before storms appear or blossom into severe stage and may cover several states. If you are included in a Watch area, this is a good time to gather your valuables or take note of where they are. Watches are in effect for many hours and are not specific when or where any one location will experience severe thunderstorms.

Warnings are issued when a severe thunderstorm or tornado has been reported or determined by local radar to be imminent. A warning will be cause for local authorities to sound the sirens for your area. These are issued for a period of an hour or less, covering parts of an individual county. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning implies the large hail and/or high winds, as defined above, with the possibilities of tornadoes. A Tornado Warning implies specifically that a tornado has been spotted in or near your area.

While most receive their alerts via siren or the television crawl, the quickest reception will be through NOAA weather radio. Technology has come a long way since the old weather band radios. You can now purchase crystal controlled weather alert radios from a local electronics store. These modern day weather radios can be programmed to a local frequency to alert you of any warnings issued in or near your community. In non-threatening weather, you can use them to keep abreast of current weather conditions and forecasts, commercial-free. Warnings will interrupt the regular forecasts within seconds of their issuance from the National Weather Service. And the faster you are aware of the danger, the more time you have to take cover.

Keeping food safe during an emergency

March 20, 2008

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is providing recommendations to the regions affected by severe weather and flooding in the Central United States. USDA is hopeful that this information will help minimize the potential for foodborne illnesses due to food spoilage from power outages and other problems that are often associated with severe weather events.

“Power outages can occur at any time of the year and it often takes from a few hours to several days for electricity to be restored to residential areas,” said USDA Under Secretary for Food Safety Dr. Richard Raymond. “Without electricity or a cold source, foods stored in refrigerators and freezers can become unsafe. Bacteria in food grow rapidly at temperatures between 40 and 140 °F, and if these foods are consumed, people can become very sick.”

Steps to follow to prepare for a possible weather emergency:

• Keep an appliance thermometer in the refrigerator and freezer. An appliance thermometer will indicate the temperature in the refrigerator and freezer in case of a power outage and help determine the safety of the food.
• Make sure the freezer is at 0 °F or below and the refrigerator is at 40 °F or below.
• Freeze containers of water for ice to help keep food cold in the freezer, refrigerator or coolers after the power is out.
• Freeze refrigerated items such as leftovers, milk and fresh meat and poultry that you may not need immediately — this helps keep them at a safe temperature longer.
• Plan ahead and know where dry ice and block ice can be purchased.
• Store food on shelves that will be safely out of the way of contaminated water in case of flooding.
• Have coolers on hand to keep refrigerator food cold if the power will be out for more than 4 hours. Purchase or make ice cubes and store in the freezer for use in the refrigerator or in a cooler. Freeze gel packs ahead of time for use in coolers.
• Group food together in the freezer - this helps the food stay cold longer.

Steps to follow after the weather emergency:

• Keep the refrigerator and freezer doors closed as much as possible to maintain the cold temperature.
• The refrigerator will keep food safely cold for about 4 hours if it is unopened. A full freezer will hold the temperature for approximately 48 hours (24 hours if it is half full) and the door remains closed.
• Discard refrigerated perishable food such as meat, poultry, fish, soft cheeses, milk, eggs, leftovers and deli items after 4 hours without power.
• Food may be safely refrozen if it still contains ice crystals or is at 40 °F or below when checked with a food thermometer.
• Never taste a food to determine its safety!
• Obtain dry or block ice to keep your refrigerator and freezer as cold as possible if the power is going to be out for a prolonged period of time. Fifty pounds of dry ice should hold an 18-cubic-foot full freezer for 2 days.
• If the power has been out for several days, check the temperature of the freezer with an appliance thermometer. If the appliance thermometer reads 40 °F or below, the food is safe to refreeze.
• If a thermometer has not been kept in the freezer, check each package of food to determine its safety. If the food still contains ice crystals, the food is safe.
• Drink only bottled water if flooding has occurred.
• Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Discard wooden cutting boards, plastic utensils, baby bottle nipples and pacifiers.
• Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved. Follow the Steps to Salvage All-Metal Cans and Retort Pouches.
• Thoroughly wash all metal pans, ceramic dishes and utensils that came in contact with flood water with hot soapy water and sanitize by boiling them in clean water or by immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water.
• When in Doubt, Throw it Out!

Asia: Satellites Help Manage Disasters

United Nations, Mar 20 (Prensa Latina) The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) calls to use satellites to predict and manage natural disasters in Asia.

Asia-Pacific have endured six of the worst natural disasters of the decades so the experts consider that an effective data collection from satellites may be effectively used for such end.

ESCAP said Disaster Management is the topic at a 72-hour seminar opened Wednesday in Bangkok, Thailand, with officials from 22 countries of Asia, host of 21,000 disaster victims in 2006, three fourth such events in the world.

Of the 53 member states of ESCAP, eight are among the 10 most affected by such natural calamities.

The specialists define as adequate disaster management an effective use of data supplied in time to assess risks, mitigate the impact, monitor the phenomena and issue early warning.

Shigeru Mochida, executive vice president of ESCAP, added that satellites may play a relevant role in rescue and assistance.

MARITIME NOTES

DNV “CASUALTIES TWICE AS LIKELY AS 5 YEARS AGO”

Thursday, 21 February 2008

NORWEGIAN classification society DNV says the chances of a ship being involved in a serious casualty have doubled in five years. DNV, which monitors the annual frequency of serious accidents, says that over the past five years, there has been an increasing incidence of serious navigational accidents in several shipping segments.

Speaking at DNV seminar in Singapore yesterday. Helge Kjeøy, regional manager DNV Maritime South East Asia said: “The main factors explaining the negative developments over the past few years are - that the undersupply of crew worldwide results in reduced experience and that the high commercial pressure results in a high workload. Adding new and more complex equipment does not only help the situation. Avoiding accidents under such situations requires a good safety culture, something which the maritime industry evidently needs to focus more on.”

Torkel Soma, Principal Safety Consultant in DNV Maritime, said: “DNV’s statistics shows that a ship is twice as likely to be involved in a serious grounding, collision or contact accident today compared to only five years ago. In addition, estimates show that also the costs of these accidents have doubled. Since this is the general trend for the international commercial fleet, the maritime industry needs to act on this immediately.”

The boom in the shipping market and increased deliveries of newbuildings has resulted in pressure on crews. The shortage of officers has resulted in lower retention and faster promotion. As a result, the general level of experience is decreasing on board. At the same time new technical solutions have been introduced which might have increased the complexity of operations.

Dr. Soma pinpoint: “Reliable technology and complying manuals are no assurance against making errors. Collisions, groundings and contact accidents do almost always involve human acts.”

Ferry Riverdance decision due next week
By Lisa Ettridge

A DECISION on the future of stranded ferry Riverdance has been deferred again as coastguards say more information is needed.

It was hoped the fate of the stricken ship could be made at a meeting today but now discussions will not be taking place until next week. A spokesman for the Marine and Coastguard Agency said: "No decision about Riverdance is going to be made until next week at the earliest. "We had hoped the future of the vessel could be decided this week but we are still exploring our options at this stage. "We need to gather more information so we can make a properly informed choice and all parties concerned will meet probably in the middle of next week." Companies who lost property aboard the stranded ferry are cutting their losses one businessman said today. Steve Slater of SJ Slater Transport which is based in Cockerham, near Lancaster says he does not believe he will get his trailer back. He said: "I suppose what has happened to Riverdance is just one of those things, there is nothing that can be done about it."

Messing About In Ships Podcast Episode # 16

March 21, 2008, 4:27 am
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: daily source code, lloyds list, london bridge, mais, maritime, merchant marine, podcast, queen of the north, severe weather, ships, twitter

Messing About In Ships podcast episode #16 has launched.

(54 minutes)

Download MP3 file: Messing About In Ships 16

Subscribe Via iTunes HERE

Spring has sprung, the grass has riz, wonder where all the flowers is?

HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!
Seafarers Prayers





RS

New weather project could help track tornadoes more closely

New weather project could help track tornadoes more closely

By Ellis Goodwin, Daily Staff Writer

The 1996 movie "Twister" showed storm chasers travelling across Oklahoma and Kansas toting Dorothy, a mobile device that launches hundreds of flying sensors into a tornado.

In the film, Dorothy works by collecting data from the sensors, but in real life that would be nearly impossible, said Don Burgess, retired National Severe Storms Lab meteorologist.

Burgess said Dorothy is just a movie prop. It was based on a real piece of technology from the early '80s that did not fling hundreds of sensors into the air. Instead of Dorothy, it was called the Totable Tornado Observatory - TOTO for short.

TOTO weighs a few hundred pounds and holds basic atmospheric sensors that measure temperature, wind speed, pressure, dew point and other atmospheric characteristics, Burgess said. Burgess said the National Severe Storm Lab used TOTO for four or five years, but they did not have much success with it. It was big, bulky and difficult to put in the path of a tornado.

"There was just one TOTO; it was heavy and took a while to deploy," Burgess said. "We got close a number of times but had a problem getting a tornado to go right over it "

The technology in TOTO was high-tech for its time, but forecasters needed better technology to learn more about tornadoes, Burgess said.

In the mid '90s, a new design, VORTEX 1, incorporated new technologies developed after TOTO, NSSL Deputy Director Kevin Kelleher said.

Burgess said the VORTEX 1 machines that replaced TOTO are called Turtles. These devices are smaller and easier to deploy, and there are numerous units that can be placed in a grid.

Kelleher and Burgess described these devices as large, upside-down metal bowls that are loaded with atmospheric sensors. "You can set those out real quick so you don't have to worry as much about the safety factor," Burgess said.

Kelleher said forecasters learned a lot from VORTEX 1, but it there was still a lot to discover.

"VORTEX 1 was initially designed to find out what causes rotation," Kelleher said. "We wanted to forecast how [tornadoes] occur and how they dissipate, and what we learned is there is a lot we don't know."

New Technology

Large-scale tests like VORTEX 1 happen fairly rarely, NSSL Research Meteorologist Lou Wicker said. "VORTEX 1 made a significant difference," Wicker said. "But now we have a lot more technology to make real-time predictions, which can increase warning times."

The NSSL and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are working with the National Science Foundation to develop VORTEX 2, Kelleher said.

VORTEX 2 is a bigger and better version of the original VORTEX project, he said. The NSSL will prepare this spring for the test, which will be conducted in the springs of 2009 and 2010, Kelleher said.

"It is basically VORTEX 1 on steroids," Wicker said.

VORTEX 2 was developed to give researchers a better understanding of tornadoes and increase the warning time for those in the path of tornadoes, Kelleher said. VORTEX 2 should help forecasters complete the picture of how and why tornadoes occur, he said.

"The goal is to use the best observations we have now and all of the information we gathered in VORTEX 1, and take that to make models," Kelleher said. "The end game is to help forecasters predict what is going on more accurately."

In VORTEX 2, the NSSL and partners will track the storm from all sides at three different levels and will use most of today's available forecasting technology.

Tracking a storm

The first level of observation includes Turtles, Stick-nets – another type of sensor – and Mobile Mesonets, vehicles with sensors attached to their roofs. This level of observation records basic atmospheric functions.

The second level of observation is conducted by trucks called Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radars, known as SMART-Radars.

In 1997, OU, the NSSL and other partners developed these trucks, which are 34 feet long and have a 5 cm Doppler radar dish in the back, said Mike Biggerstaff, associate professor of meteorology and director of the SMART-Radar program. The 5 cm dish is less powerful than the larger stationary 10 cm Doppler radars, but its mobility allows it to move much closer to a storm and observe a clearer picture, he said.

The SMART-Radars are able to use radar signals to penetrate the storm, which bounce back and produce an image of what the storm looks like, Biggerstaff said.

"We can see the entire storm scale, the effect of the updrafts and the downdrafts on the development of circulation," he said.

On the third level of observation, behind the SMART-Radars, are the larger stationary 10 cm Doppler radar dishes. These radars provide a much farther-reaching radar sweep, Biggerstaff said. The more powerful beam provides a picture of the storm and areas surrounding it. Like the smaller radars, these take data and plug them into a computer algorithm, which creates a map of the storm, he said.

In VORTEX 2, the NSSL will also incorporate the new phased array radar, which was developed by the military. Phased array radar uses multiple beams and frequencies to reduce scanning time and can give forecasters minute by minute updates, Kelleher said.

Biggerstaff said there has never been a weather experiment as extensive as this one. And what makes VORTEX 2 so unique is the combination of all the technologies to create a data set that can be used to forecast future storms.

"I don't even think we have found all the ways that tornadoes form," Biggerstaff said. "We need to be able to observe all the scales of motion, and VORTEX 2 is designed to allow that to happen.”

WEATHER NOTES

The UK Chief Fire and Rescue Adviser’s review of the operational response by the Fire and Rescue Service to the widespread flooding in England during 2007 has been released. PDF at:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/fire/pdf/725360


Tornadoes in 2008

Here’s a look at where tornadoes have occurred in 2008 so far. Tornado season starts in the deep south and migrates north and northwest. Note the few number of tornadoes in the Plains States.

We have had 69 tornado fatalities in the U.S. (and it’s still winter!), well ahead of average. A total of 465 tornadoes have been reported. Usually we go until late May to get that many tornadoes.There have been 19 “killer tornadoes” in 9 states. 37 of the 69 fatalities were people inside mobile homes (which, unfortunately, tend to become more mobile in a tornado). Note the isolated tornadoes in California and Oregon (small spinups). There are two advantages to cool weather in late March and April…less severe weather and the blossoms don’t come out too soon. We should stay a little cooler than average through the rest of March.

Fortified Homes Capture Growing Interest In Wake Of Disasters

The insurance industry takes special note of the changes in weather patterns that are doling out spectacular new property losses. A spokesperson for the Institute for Business and Home Safety, (IBHS) a non-profit supported by the insurance industry, recently remarked:

"Ours is not to decide why it's happening, we just know disasters are more prevalent."

While "fortified" homes can refer to structures designed in the tradition of Joel Skousen as a buffer against uncertain times and to enhance survival in times of civil unrest, the term is now being used to describe structures that can resist, or survive, natural disasters.

Last week one such home was dedicated in Louisiana by Louisiana System Built Homes. IBHS sets out requirements for a home to be designated as "fortified," and the process includes inspections by those trained in inspecting for this purpose. It might surprise some to know that this home is largely built in a factory setting and transferred to the building site where it is assembled. This particular company uses SIPs as the building blocks.

IBHS certification promises to reduce insurance costs for the building owner. Requirements are related to where the structure is being built so they will vary from place to place but in Louisiana some of the requirements are:

• Able to withstand wind speeds 20 mph higher than those established by the American Society of Civil Engineers;
• Able to withstand high pressure at doors and windows;
• Able to withstand water penetration, high winds and hail in the roof area.

In Seattle, where another of these homes was recently certified, requirements look like this:

• Concrete construction must exceed seismic code standards by 20 percent;
• Roof to wall to foundation connections have to be able to stand 130 mph winds;
• Light metal roofs that resist shaking momentum but still also resist wind, hail and fire;
• Two moisture barriers below the roof covering;
• Windows and doors with a high degree of wind and water resistance.

By visiting this IBHS page you can view a number of videos with tips for fortifying buildings.

IBHS is also taking on the tough question that people always ask after a community sustains major losses from a natural disaster that was always expected to happen: "Why did they let them build there?"

You've all heard that one asked after yet another flood wipes out a portion of a community where the same thing happened in recent memory. As you might expect, answering the question requires getting into the nits and grits of some very formidable topics not the least of which have to do with property values and feelings related to "home." IBHS is advocating more comprehensive incorporation of natural hazards when communities consider land-use.

Images from the 03/15/08 tornadoes in Floyd and Polk County.

MARITIME NOTES

Independent Assessment by Coast Guard on Marine Safety program

In November 2007, VADM James C. Card, Ret. completed an independent assessment and analysis of the Coast Guard’s Marine Safety program. Below is taken from the introduction and gives a brief over view of the document:

Recently, Congress and the industry have criticized the Coast Guard because they believe Coast Guard Marine Safety performance and service have deteriorated. Many point to the Coast Guard’s increased role in Maritime Security and its move to the Department of Homeland Security as primary reasons for the deterioration. Coast Guard Marine Safety professionals also have concerns about the Coast Guard’s lack of focus on Marine Safety as an important mission.

The results gathered in this report show that concerns and suggestions fall into six major categories. Listed by priority they are: Strategy; Leadership; People; Policy; Customer Focus; and Organization.

Here is the link to the rest of the document Coast Guard Marine Safety Analysis


RS