Showing posts with label earthquake. Show all posts
Showing posts with label earthquake. Show all posts

Friday, February 14, 2014

San Francisco's big 1906 quake was third of a series on San Andreas Fault

Research led by a University of Oregon doctoral student in California's Santa Cruz Mountains has uncovered geologic evidence that supports historical narratives for two earthquakes in the 68 years prior to San Francisco's devastating 1906 disaster.

The evidence places the two earthquakes, in 1838 and 1890, on the San Andreas Fault, as theorized by many researchers based on written accounts about damage to Spanish-built missions in the Monterey and San Francisco bay areas. These two quakes, as in 1906, were surface-rupturing events, the researchers concluded.

Continuing work, says San Francisco Bay-area native Ashley R. Streig, will dig deeper into the region's geological record -- layers of sediment along the fault -- to determine if the ensuing seismically quiet years make up a normal pattern -- or not -- of quake frequency along the fault.

Streig is lead author of the study, published in this month's issue of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. She collaborated on the project with her doctoral adviser Ray Weldon, professor of the UO's Department of Geological Sciences, and Timothy E. Dawson of the Menlo Park office of the California Geological Survey.

The study was the first to fully map the active fault trace in the Santa Cruz Mountains using a combination of on-the-ground observations and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), a remote sensing technology. The Santa Cruz Mountains run for about 39 miles from south of San Francisco to near San Juan Batista. Hazel Dell is east of Santa Cruz and north of Watsonville.

Read > The rest of the story

Monday, February 2, 2009

Indian Ocean due huge quake 'in next 30 years'


Indian Ocean due huge quake 'in next 30 years'

JAKARTA] The Indian Ocean could be due another massive earthquake within the next 30 years — one that could rival the magnitude of the one that caused the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004.

Researchers made the prediction after studying corals, which show rings of growth from which past sea levels can be inferred. Earthquakes push the land up, depressing the sea level in the area and preventing corals from growing upwards. Sea levels then rise as the land subsides, leaving the history of the earthquake imprinted in the coral growth patterns.

The scientists analysed coral growth over the last 700 years in the shallow reefs along the 700-kilometre 'Sunda megathrust' fault — a boundary between tectonic plates off the Mentawai islands in western Sumatra, Indonesia.

This section of the Sunda fault had been inactive for at least 50 years until a magnitude 8.4 earthquake in September 2007. Using the coral data the scientists found three previous sets of large earthquakes. If the cycles continue to be consistent — beginning every 200 years — the next earthquake is due within the next few decades.

Danny H. Natawidjaja, an author of the paper and a senior researcher at the Research Center for Geotechnology of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, told SciDev.Net the probability of a large earthquake in western Sumatra in the next 30 years is more than 70 per cent. MORE

WEATHER NOTE

Results Are In: Great Southern California ShakeOut Successful, Sets U.S. Record!

Los Angeles - It's working! On November 13, 2008 more than 5.47 million people in southern California participated in The Great Southern California ShakeOut, now officially the largest earthquake drill in the Nation's history - and according to some community leaders, a success that should be practiced every year.

"This is the best single effort in emergency preparedness in my nearly 20 years in the business," wrote Mike Martinet, Executive Director, South Bay Office of Disaster Management (Area G). "I hope that we can continue to use this scenario or some variations thereof for years to come."
The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of events, including the drill, all based on the 7.8 Magnitude San Andreas Fault earthquake scenario.

All the resources, tools and information are still readily available at http://www.shakeout.org/. Much of the concept and organization came out of the Earthquake Country Alliance, a public-private partnership, which includes the US Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, California Office of Emergency Services, Caltech, State Farm, City of Los Angeles, Art Center College of Design, and many other partners.

When organizers of The ShakeOut concluded the historic week of earthquake preparedness events, including millions taking part in the "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" drill, they convened a meeting of emergency managers and community leaders to examine value of the effort. When asked what could be done better, the participants overwhelmingly supported the idea of turning it into an annual day or week of disaster preparedness activities.

"We didn't know when we set out to do this, if anyone would participate," said Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. "They did, and we're now getting calls to do something annually."

The requests to continue the effort have been so constant over the past month that the Earthquake Country Alliance has agreed to look into expanding into a statewide organization. "We certainly have heard many ideas of how we can get more people involved - and we'd like to do just that!" said Mark Benthien, Executive Director of the Earthquake Country Alliance and Outreach Director for the Southern California Earthquake Center. "We hope that an annual ShakeOut-like drill will be part of an expanded statewide earthquake awareness program for many years." MORE

MARITIME NOTE

Abandoned Vessels: Threat to Nigeria’s Maritime

About 90 per cent of world trade is facilitated through seas and oceans. The case of Nigeria is not exceptional. However, incessant pirate attacks have constituted major threat to the country’s maritime trade and investment. Shipwrecks and abandoned vessels on the nation’s territorial waters have been identified as another risk to huge maritime investments.

Gboyega Akinsanmi writes Nigeria’s waters are replete with all manners of obstacles that threaten maritime investment. Aside from incessant pirate cases, her territorial waters are clogged and littered with shipwrecks and abandoned vessels. There was little or no effort geared at clearing the country’s waterways and maritime routes to ensure free movement of vessels and safe investment in the entire area.This, according to experts, has a lot of implications for maritime investment and trade.

It hinders free movement of vessels with potential to cause ship mishap, thus leading to loss of lives, cargoes and multi-billion investments. If continued, it portends unsafe and unsecured maritime routes against the best practice, and Nigeria will definitely so much incur loss in revenue.Also, shipwrecks on Nigeria’s waters provide hideouts for criminals in the country. For instance, abandoned vessels have constituted base for pirates, sea robbers and miscreants to attack legitimate vessel operators and fishing trawlers. This has threatened vessels, maritime trade and investment worth of several billions of dollars. Fishing trawlers have lost about N25 billion to piracy and sea robberies.

The clog on Nigeria’s maritime routes and waterways is increasing concerns and fears of investment in the maritime sector. Like other maritime actors and stakeholders, the management of Nigerdock Nigeria Plc expressed profound worries about heaps of shipwrecks and abandoned vessels on the maritime routes and waterways because they provide hideouts for pirates and sea robbers. MORE

RS

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Summary as of 8 January 2009

UPDATE: "CHICAGO NWS": Snow and Blowing Snow Today Followed by Dangerous Wind Chills

Local Storm Reports

Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Summary as of 8 January 2009

Seismic activity at Yellowstone Lake in Yellowstone National Park increased in late December 2008.

As of January 8, 2009, the seismic activity has markedly decreased

(Listen to a podcast with YVO's Scientist-in-Charge about the recent swarm).

It is possible that the swarm has ended, although a return of activity may occur as previous Yellowstone swarms of this size have lasted for tens of days to many weeks. Swarms are common at Yellowstone.

The last notable swarm occurred in 2004, please see our 2004 article, Yellowstone Earthquake Swarms for more background on earthquakes and swarms at Yellowstone.

Seismologists continue to review the earthquakes

About 900 earthquakes occurred between Dec. 26, 2008 and Jan. 8, 2009 in the Yellowstone Lake area. Five hundred of the earthquakes (including all greater than magnitude 2.0) have been reviewed by seismologists. There were 111 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 2.0 (> M2.0)and 18 earthquakes > M3.0. About 400 smaller earthquakes have yet to be reviewed. [A new Frequently Asked Question about earthquake analysis will be posted here soon]. The largest earthquake during the swarm was a magnitude 3.9 on Sunday, December 28, 2008. One of the analyses seismologists use to talk about earthquakes and swarms is the cumulative seismic moment, which is a measure of the earthquake energy. The cumulative moment (the energy from all the analyzed earthquakes in the swarm) for the Yellowstone Lake Swarm is equal to the energy of a single magnitude 4.5 earthquake (see Image 3).

Depths for shallow earthquake hypocenters (the point within the earth where an earthquake rupture starts) are difficult to determine accurately unless the seismic stations are spaced much more closely than those in the Yellowstone Seismic Network. The best located earthquakes have hypocenters (depths) of 3 to 10 km (1.8 to 6.0 miles). From Dec. 26 through Jan 2, the hypocenters appear to have migrated northwards, starting southeast of near Stevenson Island, with many of the latest events occurring near Fishing Bridge.

Image 2. The depth versus location of the Yellowstone Lake earthquake swarm from X to X' on the Yellowstone Lake map. Earthquakes are shown from Dec. 27, 2008 (blue) to Jan. 8, 2009 (red). The M 3.0 and greater earthquakes are shown as stars, the smaller earthquakes are shown as circles. Click on the image for a full-size version.

Swarms are normal at Yellowstone

The recent swarm is well above typical activity at Yellowstone. Nevertheless it is not unprecedented during the last 40 years of monitoring. Earthquake swarms within the Yellowstone caldera are typical, with magnitudes occasionally ranging above 4.0. The 1985 swarm on the northwest rim of the caldera lasted for three months, with earthquakes up to M4.9 and over 3000 total events recorded.

The magnitudes of earthquakes in this swarm range from zero to 3.9. Earthquakes with magnitudes less than 3.4 are generally not felt by people unless they are very shallow and you are standing very close to the epicenter (point on the earth's surface above the hypocenter). For perspective, earthquakes of magnitude 3.4 to 4.5 are often felt and there were multiple reports of felt earthquakes during this swarm. A magnitude 5 or greater is generally required to produce damage to buildings or other structures.

Image 3. Number of reviewed Yellowstone Lake earthquakes in six-hour and three-hour intervals from 12/27/08 to 01/06/09. The green line on the left figure gives the cumulative number of earthquakes; the steep slopes correspond to increase in earthquake number. The red line in the figure on the right gives the cumulative moment, or energy; its sharp increase in the first few days is due to a greater number of large earthquakes with their greater energy release. The total cumulative moment is equivalent in energy to about one M 4.5 earthquake. Click on the image for a full-size version.

New equipment allowed us to monitor the swarm

Improved volcano and seismic monitoring at Yellowstone gives us a greater ability to locate earthquakes, understand their source process and identify anomalous sources of seismic activity. New equipment including precise measurements of ground motion by GPS receivers and borehole strainmeters provided by the National Science Foundation's EarthScope and Continental Dynamics Program have been used extensively during the last week of intense earthquake activity. Ground motions accompanying the swarm, from the GPS instruments will take two or more weeks to fully process.

It is worth noting that in 2004 the Yellowstone caldera began a period of accelerated uplift measured by GPS instruments that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr), three times as fast as recorded in the recorded history but has now reduced to about a maximum rate of 4 cm/yr. Scientists have modeled this deformation as due to magmatic recharge of the Yellowstone magma chamber at a depth of ~10 km (6 miles). The area of the swarm is on the eastern side of the uplift area. For more information on the uplift, please see our article Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera.

There are several causes for earthquakes

Earthquakes at Yellowstone are caused by a combination of geological factors including: 1) regional stress associated with normal faults (those where the valleys go down relative to the mountains) such as the nearby Teton and Hebgen Lake faults, 2) magmatic movements at depth (>7 kms or 4 miles), and 3) hydrothermal fluid activity caused as the groundwater system is heated to boiling by magmatic heat.At this time, no one has noted any anomalous changes in surface discharges (hot springs, gas output, etc.).

We continue to monitor Yellowstone Volcano

YVO staff from the USGS, University of Utah and Yellowstone National Park continue to carefully review all data streams that are recorded in real-time. At this time, there is no reason to believe that magma has risen to a shallow level within the crust or that a volcanic eruption is likely. The USGS Volcano Alert Level and Aviation Color Code for Yellowstone remain at Normal and Green.

Yellowstone National Park is evaluating infrastructure near the north end of Yellowstone Lake to assess if any damage has occurred to facilities. Winter visitor activities and staff operations have not been impacted and continue as normal.

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) is a partnership of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Yellowstone National Park, and University of Utah to strengthen the long-term monitoring of volcanic and earthquake unrest in the Yellowstone National Park region.

Yellowstone is the site of the largest and most diverse collection of natural thermal features in the world and the first National Park. YVO is one of the five USGS Volcano Observatories that monitor volcanoes within the United States for science and public safety.

WEATHER NOTE

Ike post-mortem: Experts disassemble monster storm's causes
By
SARAH MOORE
January, 9, 2009

Photos of coastal Texas before and after Hurricane Ike give a sort of "now you see it; now you don't effect, as if Ike were playing David Copperfield with beach houses.

Ten houses in Jamaica Beach. Ninety-one houses from Crystal Beach. All but five from Gilchrist.
As longtime meteorologist and former director of the National Hurricane Center Neil Frank clicked through a Power Point presentation, it brought back the initial feeling of disbelief and sadness at the profound alteration of previously idyllic beach communities.

At a conference Friday at University of St. Thomas in Houston, "Understanding Ike, does size matter," experts from various fields gathered to share information on Hurricane Ike, the baffling storm that was the third most destructive in American history, despite its Category 2 designation.

With Texas hit by named storms Dolly, Edouard and Ike last year, residents are left wondering what's going on.

But if it seems like hurricanes have become more frequent and more intense than they used to be, resist the temptation to jump to conclusions about global warming, some meteorologists say.

A number of factors contribute to that impression.

Because storms are rated based on wind speed, rather than barometric pressure, some systems reach named status al-though they lack the low pressure that would allow them to develop into a tropical cyclone, Frank said.

"On the basis of (barometric) pressure, not wind, (Ike) would have been called a Category 3," he noted.

In addition, satellites record more storms out at sea that in the past would have gone undetected.

"Historic records are not adequate to say man-made global warming is causing more storms," Frank said.

And some of it is just that too much time has passed.

In an active period between the 1930s and 1960s, 12 named storms hit Texas.
Frank also cited destructive storms in 1875 and 1893, as well as the storm that killed up to 10,000 in Galveston in 1900 and another major storm in 1915.

Also at the conference, Shell Oil spokesman Stuart Furgang described the destructive impact of various storms in re-cent years as well as how the company copes with the disruption. Furgang described the way personnel were evacuated in stages, leaving behind a last crew to "turn off the lights" only leaving at the very last minute - or staying to keep the operation going should the storm turn.

He described platforms that endured hours of 175 mph winds during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and 52-foot waves lashing platforms during Ivan in 2004.

Lt. John Moran of the U.S. Coast Guard showed video and told of photo-finish rescues of people stranded in pickup trucks nearly engulfed by Ike's storm surge as the helicopter grew low on fuel and waves threatened to sweep stranded families into the Gulf.

But there were lighter moments, too.

Conference attendees laughed as Manuel Gonzalez of CenterPoint Entergy dubbed Ike a "Category Tree" because of the large number of trees the storm blew into power lines.

MARITIME NOTE

Heroics of wireless operator remembered

A CENTURY after the first ever rescue at sea using a radio, enthusiasts from the Marconi Wireless Station in Cornwall are to celebrate the remarkable event.

The incredible operation was totally overshadowed by the Titanic disaster and the heroes involved have been largely forgotten. Radio operator Jack Binns saved nearly 2,000 lives after his ship RMS Republic started sinking after it was rammed by another in thick fog in the north Atlantic in 1909.

After the collision, the Marconi-trained operator leapt to his post and began tapping out "CQD" in Morse code – the distress signal used before SOS was adopted.

He worked tirelessly for 36 hours in the wireless room which had a hole in the wall made by the bow of the other vessel, the SS Florida.

His signals were picked up 30 miles away by operator Jack Irwin on Nantucket Island, off the coast of Massachusetts.

Mr Irwin immediately realised the importance of the distress call and replied to the message – sparking one of the greatest ever rescues at sea.Mr Binns was then handed a note from Captain Inman Sealby to be broadcast. It read: "Republic rammed by unknown steamship, 26 miles southwest of Nantucket. Badly in need of assistance."

Through Mr Irwin, whose range was much further, Mr Binns learned two ships were aware of the collision and in the general area. However, the operation was a long-drawn-out affair because the rescue ships found it hard to locate the stricken vessel due to the fog and a lack of lights on the White Star liner Republic.

As they awaited rescue, Cpt Sealby decided to transfer his passengers to the Florida, which was not sinking despite her crumpled bow.

She already had nearly 1,000 people on board, many of them refugees from the Messina earthquake in Italy.

After the high-risk operation, the sinking Republic was left with just 44 crew from her total of 300 – and more than 400 passengers had been transferred in dangerous conditions. Using location bombs and fog horns, the rescue ship Baltic finally found the Republic and the last part of the rescue began. Mr Binns stayed at his post until the last possible moment. He sent more than 200 messages, the last being: "Current going, wireless now closed."

Following naval tradition Cpt Sealby and the first mate stayed on board and went down with the Republic – both, however, were picked up.

During the incredible operation coordinated by wireless, no-one was lost. The only casualties were two deaths during the initial collision.

Englishman Mr Binns was hailed a hero on his return to New York, where the voyage had begun. Thousands lined the streets, shouting: "It's CQD Binns!" The incredible rescue and Mr Binns' heroism were totally overshadowed by the Titanic sinking three years later.

Ironically, Mr Binns later turned down the opportunity of being the Titanic's wireless operator and instead pursued a career in journalism. Wireless societies on both sides of the Atlantic will be on air on January 23 to celebrate hero Mr Binns and mark the centenary of the rescue.

David Barlow, a Marconi historian from the Radio Officers' Association who runs the Marconi Wireless Station at the Lizard, has researched the events surrounding the rescue. He said: "Mention 'distress' and 'wireless' and the first name on the lips is Titanic. But the events three years previously were of far greater significance and used the distress call CQD.

"It is a privilege to take part in an event to celebrate the saving of over 1,600 lives through the medium of wireless. Our special call sign GB100MSC represents the station that received the CQD sent by Jack Binns 100 years ago.

"Since that date, wireless operators and radio officers have remained on board stricken ships with their captains in both peace and war time, often at the cost of their lives." John Robinson Binns – known as Jack – was born in poverty in Lincolnshire and raised in Peterborough.

He attended the Marconi training school in 1904 and then joined his first ship as a wireless operator, aged 20.

Mr Barlow said: "In 1908 he joined RMS Republic and was the only wireless operator on board. At 5.40am on January 23, 1909, Binns became aware that the fog horn was sounding more frequently and felt the judder of the engines stopping.

"Then he heard a loud crash and the ship keeled over. He rushed to the wireless room and could see another ship through a hole in the wall.

"Using his Morse key he sent the message CQD CQD CQD MKD MKD MKD – MKD was the call-sign of the Republic.

"Operator Jack Irwin, on Nantucket Island, picked up the message and was soon in contact with the SS Baltic, which was only 64 miles away from Republic.

"However, she sailed over 200 miles trying to find the stricken vessel and travelled very slowly because her captain was worried about further collisions in the fog.

"The Baltic used location bombs in a bid to find the Republic, but when she was down to her last one the wireless was used to co-ordinate efforts.

"The bomb was heard and 15 minutes later the Baltic hove to."

Virginia Lovelace, Jack Binns' American granddaughter, remembers her grandfather well and called him "Binnsy".

She said: "My family are so grateful to the radio amateurs who will use the airwaves to mark this important centenary, in which more lives were saved than were lost on board the Titanic."

Jack Binns died in New York in 1959, aged 75. He spent the war in Canada as an instructor in aviation and wireless.


RS

Friday, January 9, 2009

Major Southern California quake drill reveals significant gaps in preparations

Major Southern California quake drill reveals significant gaps in preparations

The Nov. 13 'shakeout' showed officials that in the event of a 7.8-magnitude temblor they will need more emergency workers, better sources of water and come up with new ways of restoring electricity.

By Jia-Rui Chong December 27, 2008

The largest earthquake drill in U.S. history, held last month in Southern California, found some serious gaps in local earthquake planning, prompting utility companies, emergency managers and others to rethink their planning for a major temblor.The Great Southern California Shakeout was the first time so many agencies and earthquake officials teamed up to examine what would happen if a huge quake struck the region, in this case a 7.8 magnitude temblor. Many Shakeout participants said they have gone through earthquake drills before, but never with a scenario so detailed.

Based on the results of the Nov. 13 experiment, in which each agency estimated damage and emergency services requirements based on detailed quake scenarios developed by supercomputers, officials said they will need more emergency workers, better sources of water and come up with new ways of restoring electricity.Fire protectionFor local fire officials, one of the most worrisome estimates from the drill was the 1,600 fires expected to ignite with lamps overturning, electrical wires shorting and natural gas lines bursting open. Many fires would grow out of control as firefighters struggle to get fire engines across damaged roads and water stopped coming out of their hoses, experts found.

An estimated 200 million square feet of property would be damaged in the blazes. The fires would cause more than 900 deaths -- about half of the total for the earthquake."To hear it quantified like that, it more than got my attention," said Los Angeles County Fire Chief Michael Freeman. "This was really the worst-case scenario for us. Today, if this were to happen, we would need outside assistance."Unfortunately, Freeman said, they probably would not get help for quite some time because neighboring fire agencies would be fighting fires in their own districts and departments from Northern California would have to make their way around damaged highways.

Because they can't afford to multiply their staffs, several fire agencies are looking into training more members of the community to be first responders, learning such skills as basic first aid and turning off gas lines.Freeman said the county is also looking into ways to better draw water from other sources during a disaster, such as pools or storm drains that are collecting runoff from broken pipes.Water suppliesBut the drill also raised troubling questions about how much water would be available after a major quake. Of all utilities, water would take the longest time to restore, experts found. Some communities might have to wait six months for taps to flow again.

The Shakeout helped officials at East Valley Water District in San Bernardino County estimate that they would see about 1,000 leaks in their 450 miles of pipe because about 40% of their pipes are made from a material that is particularly brittle in earthquakes, said Gary Sturdivan, the district's safety and regulatory manager. All 78,000 of its customers would lose water for some period because all of the agency's reservoirs are on one side of the fault and all of its wells and distribution systems are on the other.As a result, the district plans to stock more replacement pipe parts in repair sheds near those areas and store more bottled water for their employees, employees' families that might stay at their facilities and their customers who need water, Sturdivan said.

The water agencies are also retooling their mutual-aid agreements so they can figure out how to prioritize different agencies' needs and distribute replacement parts or water from other states fairly, he said."I think our agency, like a lot of water agencies, was pretty prepared, but it was glaring that we have a long way to go," Sturdivan said. "It was a little overwhelming."Electrical suppliesThe 7.8 temblor modeled by the test would leave large swaths of Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Riverside counties without power, according to estimates by a working group that included utility companies representatives. Breaks in natural gas pipelines could add delays because many plants use gas to generate electricity.

It probably would take about 10 days to restore power to 90% of customers, the estimates found.But Jim Kelly, senior vice president of transmission and distribution for Southern California Edison, said even that is an optimistic forecast."The problem is harder than people initially think," he said. Although Edison already uses equipment designed to be safer in earthquakes, such as transformers with low centers of gravity, Kelly worried about other utilities and parts vendors that would probably be having problems at the same time.

"If we lose bridges or roadways, how are we going to get people or materials to the job site," Kelly asked. "We don't know if rail transit will be available if we don't have roadways."

When Kelly added these potential problems together, he estimated it would take two to four weeks to restore power to the vast majority of Edison's 12 million customers."The scenario's value to us was in identifying that we have to look broader than just our stuff," he said.

Lucile Jones, the U.S. Geological Survey seismologist who served as the chief scientist for the Shakeout, said she hopes the drill gave agencies concrete data that will help them better prepare."People don't need to be convinced an earthquake can happen," she said. "They need concrete statements so they know what to do about it."The effort to develop the scenario cost about $500,000, engaged some 300 experts and took two years to complete.

Geophysicists wanted to plot a plausible event, so they started the earthquake at a part of the San Andreas that has not moved for more than 300 years. They decided the energy stored in that part of the fault could cause a 200-mile rupture moving northwest from Bombay Beach, at the Salton Sea. Quakes of this size are possible, Jones explained, because they rocked San Francisco in 1906 and Fort Tejon in 1857.Seismologists used the supercomputers to calculate the shaking, generating data for 25,000 points of a grid laid out over Southern California.Geologists, engineers, utility managers and other experts used the data to estimate the damage, which included more than 10,000 landslides, more than 50 sewage spills and more than 100,000 addresses losing phone and Internet service for two or more days. Motorists would have to wait one to two weeks to use arterial roads in cities such as Los Angeles and seven months to use damaged highways.

Public health experts estimated some 1,800 people would die and 50,000 would be seriously injured. The economic costs of the disaster, including the business interruption, would total about $213 billion.

The scientists purposefully avoided a worst-case scenario but wanted to analyze an earthquake far more damaging than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which had a magnitude of 6.7. "We wanted people to understand how bad it could be," Jones said. "Some people think, 'I've been through Northridge,' but getting through Northridge is not enough."

WEATHER NOTE

FEMA uses multimedia to document Ike response
By
AMY MOORE
December, 23, 2008



The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is allowing access to footage of recovery efforts during Hurricane Ike while staying on the cutting edge of multimedia technology, offering online "webisodes" of the Ike response and recovery missions in Texas.

In step with several other federal agencies, the emergency agency is producing video shorts for its online multimedia site at www.fema.gov/media/multimedia/ to bring the efforts of the agency and recovery information directly to the public.

Using social media tools such as YouTube.com, FEMA is able to capture the various recovery efforts in the areas surrounding the upper Texas Gulf Coast and making it available on some of the most active Internet sites.

The agency has produced 14 videos that highlight urban search and rescue, mitigation efforts, volunteerism, community relations, debris management, private sector outreaching, temporary housing and other human interest stories.

These "webisodes" demonstrate the behind-the-scenes, real-life dramas occurring in the response and recovery efforts after Hurricane Ike.

Other online multimedia resources can be found at:
www.youtube.com/fema - includes vignettes about Hurricane Ike recovery efforts and FEMA programs.

www.twitter.com/femainfocus - lets users get the latest FEMA information and participate in forums addressing issues.

www.fema.gov/radio/index.jsp - features mp3 files of recent radio news and Public Service Announcements.

www.photolibrary.fema.gov/photolibrary/index.jsp - includes FEMA's extensive collection of photos from current and previous disaster operation.

MARTIIME NOTE

Independent investigation into the lifeboat incident on board the
Hong Kong flag bulk carrier Ma Cho at Devonport, Tasmania
9 December 2002
Released


SUMMARY

On 8 December 2002, Ma Cho arrived in Devonport, Tasmania, to discharge a part cargo of fertiliser at number four berth on the western side of the river. On 9 December, the master made the decision to conduct an abandon ship drill before the vessel was due to depart for Geelong. The drill commenced at about 1540 and the starboard lifeboat was prepared for lowering to the water.

At approximately 1548 the mate reported that the crew inside the lifeboat were seated and had fastened their safety belts. Lowering of the boat then commenced with one of the crew operating the davit winch brake from the deck.When the boat had been lowered approximately two metres from the davit head the after on-load release hook suddenly opened, releasing the after fall. The lifeboat’s stern fell to leave the boat suspended vertically by the remaining forward fall with its stern swinging approximately five metres above the water. The boat crew were shaken by the incident but remained secured in their seats inside the now vertical lifeboat. The second mate had sustained a small cut over his left eye.

After the crew had disembarked, the lifeboat was lowered to the water to allow the onload release system to be inspected. It was found that the cable operating the after hook was not properly secured by the saddle clamp under the operating unit. Each time the actuating handle was operated, lost motion was induced by the cable sliding through the clamp and this meant that the after hook was not resetting fully. The cable clamp was temporary repaired and then the lifeboat was housed in its davit. MaCho was subsequently cleared to complete the voyage to Geelong.

The report conclusions include:

• The cable clamp securing the aft hook’s operating cable adjacent to the operating mechanism had been modified which resulted in lost motion within the cable.

• As a result of the lost motion in its operating cable, the after hook had not been fully reset when the previous lifeboat drill was conducted on 2 November 2002.• The design of the on-load release system was flawed with respect to the hook locking mechanism.

• The ship’s safety management system was deficient with respect to both the operating and maintenance instructions and to crew training on the on-load release system.

The report makes a general recommendation to ISM Code accreditation authorities regarding ship safety management systems as they relate to on-load release systems. The report also recommends that the lifeboat manufacturer and classification societies review the design of the on-load release system.

Have a really wonderful weekend!
RS

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

'Very bad' tornado season has most deaths since 1968

'Very bad' tornado season has most deaths since 1968

Iowa's 2008 tornado season took 12 lives, injured at least 130 people and matched 2001 for the second-most twisters in a year at 105.

Pack those statistics into the four-month period of April through August and one word comes to mind: devastation. That was the same term many used to describe the EF5 storm that tore through Parkersburg and the EF3 tornado that struck the Little Sioux Boy Scout camp.

The Parkersburg twister accounted for eight fatalities when it spun a 43-mile path through Grundy, Butler and Black Hawk counties on May 25, and the storm that touched down near Little Sioux on June 11 killed four, including Boy Scout Aaron Eilerts, 14, of Eagle Grove.

"This is total devastation," said Sarah Harberts, 28, after Parkersburg was hit by the first EF5 tornado in Iowa since 1976. Harberts, who lives in Atlanta, was in Parkersburg visiting family on the day of the storm. Together, according to statistics from the National Weather Service, the pair of storms accounted for all 12 fatalities and more than $100 million in damages to homes, businesses and infrastructure.

"All of the buildings are gone; most of the tents are gone; most of the trees are destroyed," Lloyd Roitstein, president of the Boy Scouts' Mid-America Council, said days after a tornado ravaged the Boy Scout camp. "You've got 1,800 acres of property that are destroyed right now."


According to a year-end statement from state climatologist Harry Hillaker, 98 of 99 counties in Iowa, with the exception of Audubon County, reported tornadoes in June.

The deadly 2008 twister season in Iowa was "very bad" overall, National Weather Service meteorologist Jeff Johnson said, but especially when compared to past numbers.

According to state records, the dozen deaths in 2008 are the highest total since 1968. The National Weather Service began keeping official records in 1950.

"It was a very bad year, we had a lot of problems with tornadoes," Johnson said. Although the numbers were not favorable, advances in technology and science, he added, will help state weather experts work together with spotters from across the state in ensuring additional safety during tornado season.

"Probably the biggest advancement for us has been the Doppler radar, which isn't new technology," Johnson said, adding that robust spotter training has helped advance the ability to warn Iowans of possible storms. "It's really an integrated process - what we're doing here at the National Weather Service while working with spotters to mutually help each other, the end result has helped tornado safety overall."

WEATHER NOTE

Great Indian Ocean earthquake of 2004 set off tremors in San Andreas

In the last few years there has been a growing number of documented cases in which large earthquakes set off unfelt tremors in earthquake faults hundreds, sometimes even thousands, of miles away.

New research shows that the great Indian Ocean earthquake that struck off the Indonesian island of Sumatra on the day after Christmas in 2004 set off such tremors nearly 9,000 miles away in the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, Calif.

"We found that an earthquake that happened halfway around the world could trigger a seismic signal in the San Andreas fault. It is a low-stress event and a new kind of seismic phenomenon," said Abhijit Ghosh, a University of Washington doctoral student in Earth and space sciences.

"Previous research has shown that this phenomenon, called non-volcanic tremor, was produced in the San Andreas fault in 2002 by the Denali earthquake in Alaska, but seeing this new evidence of tremor triggered by an event as distant as the Sumatra earthquake is really exciting," he said.

Ghosh is to present the findings next week (Dec. 17) in a poster at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco.

The Indian Ocean earthquake on Dec. 26, 2004, was measured at magnitude 9.2 and generated tsunami waves that killed a quarter-million people. It was not known, however, that an earthquake of even that magnitude could set off non-volcanic tremor so far away.

The San Andreas fault in the Parkfield region is one of the most studied seismic areas in the world. It experiences an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 on an average of every 22 years, so a variety of instruments have been deployed to record the seismic activity.

In this case, the scientists examined data from instruments placed in holes bored in the ground as part of the High-Resolution Seismic Network operated by the University of California, Berkeley, as well as information gathered by the Northern California Seismic Network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Signals corresponding with non-volcanic tremor at precisely the time that seismic waves from the Indian Ocean earthquake were passing the Parkfield area were recorded on a number of instruments as far as 125 miles apart.

"It's fairly obvious. There's no question of this tremor being triggered by the seismic waves from Sumatra," Ghosh said.

Scientists have pondered whether non-volcanic tremor is related to actual slippage within an earthquake fault or is caused by the flow of fluids below the Earth's surface. Recent research supports the idea that tremor is caused by fault slippage.

"If the fault is slipping from tremor in one place, it means stress is building up elsewhere on the fault, and that could bring the other area a little closer to a big earthquake," Ghosh said.

Monitoring tremor could help to estimate how much stress has built up within a particular fault.

"If the fault is closer to failure, then even a small amount of added stress likely can produce tremor," he said. "If the fault is already at low stress, then even high-energy waves probably won't produce tremor."

The work adds to the understanding of non-volcanic tremor and what role it might play in releasing or shifting stress within an earthquake-producing fault.

"Our single-biggest finding is that very small stress can trigger tremor," Ghosh said. "Finding tremor can help to track evolution of stress in the fault over space and time, and therefore could have significant implications in seismic hazard analysis."

MARITIME NOTE

Busy night for air-sea rescues

A fisherman whose boat sank after hitting a buoy in the Solent was plucked to safety last night by a passing rescue helicopter.


The man, in his 20s, was taken to hospital with shock and hypothermia after being winched to safety from the Solent. He sent out a mayday at 2344 yesterday when his boat, Sea Raider, started sinking as he returned home to the Isle of Wight.


He was rescued by helicopter, diverted en route to a medical evacuation in Jersey.


A spokesman said: "He was pretty lucky that the helicopter was in the air at the time otherwise he would have been in the water a lot longer. It's not so much the water temperature, which is about 7C, but the air temperature is pretty cold. Shock is a bigger killer than the water."


Meanwhile, a Burmese sailor was seriously injured in a 40ft fall on board a cargo ship, 600 miles off the west coast of Ireland last night. He was airlifted to safety in an operation masterminded by RAF Kinross and involving two US Army long-range helicopters, a Hercules aircraft and an aircraft tanker from the US airbase at Lakenheath in Suffolk.


A RAF Nimrod provided air cover and communications. The crewman man suffered spinal and cranial injuries.


RS

Monday, December 15, 2008

Keeping an eye on Wilkins Ice Shelf

Keeping an eye on Wilkins Ice Shelf

As the Wilkins Ice Shelf is at risk of breaking away from the Antarctic Peninsula, ESA’s Envisat satellite is observing the area on a daily basis.

The satellite acquisitions of the ice shelf are updated automatically on this website to monitor the developments immediately as they occur.

In late November, new rifts developed on the ice shelf that scientists warn could lead to the opening of the ice bridge that connects the ice shelf to the Charcot island. If the ice bridge were to open, it could put the entire ice shelf at risk of further disintegrating.

The island visible in the upper left of the image is Charcot Island. The Wilkins Ice Shelf is connected to these by an ice bridge which is approximately 100 km long and only few km wide. Should the ice bridge break up due to increasing temperatures in the Antarctic spring, this would remove the stabilising factor that has been keeping the ice sheet grounded to the peninsula.

The above animation is comprised of images acquired by Envisat’s Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) in the Antarctic spring and summer of 2008. The ice bridge is visible as a narrow white strip in the image centre.

The animation will be updated daily as new ASAR acquisitions become available. The individual images that make up the animation are also available in the image archive on the right navigation bar.

WEATHER NOTE

Top billing for maritime disaster site

The site of New Zealand’s worst civilian maritime disaster in Southland has received national recognition with its registration by the New Zealand Historic Places Trust (NZHPT).

The NZHPT Board today approved the Category I registration status, reflecting the special or outstanding historical and cultural heritage significance and value of the site.

In April 1881 the SS Tararua hit Otara Reef off Waipapa Point in Southland, with 131 men, women and children losing their lives. This registration includes the wreck of the SS Tararua, Tararua Acre – the cemetery where 64 bodies, many unidentifiable, were laid to rest – and the Waipapa Point Lighthouse that was built in response to the disaster.

Next month will mark 125 years since the first light was erected on Waipapa Point – 1 January 1884 the first day seafarers were afforded such protection on this part of the southern coast.

Owen Graham, NZHPT Otago/Southland area manager, said the shipwreck, burial site and lighthouse have significant historical value for their association with the tragedy and the resulting response which led to the improvement of maritime safety. The now automated Waipapa Lighthouse still sends out its beam to warn of hazards nearby.

“Having New Zealand’s leading heritage agency recognising this site is fitting,” Mr Graham said.

“For the people of Southland, particularly, this area has special historical and heritage significance given the loss of so many lives. The Tararua Acre remains a significant landmark recalling the wreck and has a plaque commemorating the disaster, put up by members of the local community and supported by the New Zealand Historic Places Trust.”

Mr Graham said to ensure the long-term conservation of this site NZHPT would be supportive of the Southland District Council adding it to its schedule of Registered Historic Buildings, Places and Sites and recognising their link to each other of the three heritage features.

“This site met NZHPT criteria for registration in a number of areas – aesthetic, archaeological, architectural, historical and technological values. The community holds this place in high esteem – evidenced by their extensive lobbying for the preservation of the lighthouse – and it is an educational reminder of our early maritime history.”

Maritime New Zealand, who manages the Lighthouse reserve that includes the access road and lighthouse, recently undertook upgrading work on the lighthouse. The Department of Conservation manages the surrounding recreation reserve and is undertaking further development there.

MARITIME NOTE

Injured Seaman Rescued from Ship

A crewman injured on a merchant vessel was rescued by two Royal Navy Sea King helicopters in severe weather from a 14,000 ton cargo vessel.

The ship was roughly 200 miles from the Isle of Scilly when the man was rescued. His injury was a complex fracture to the thigh. While ordinary fractures can be dealt with easily, complex fractures are more difficult s they are open wounds where infection can easily occur.

The 48-year old crewman was injured when he fell through a vent shaft in the ship’s engine room. After receiving medical treatment on the ship, he was lifted onto one of the helicopters and taken to the Royal Cornwall Hospital in Truro.

The first helicopter, which had a doctor on board, had to refuel in the Scillies and wait until the ship came into range.

The rescue was particularly difficult due to the severe weather that was in the area at the time.

Support the rescue helicopter

Last summer was the busiest on record for the Westpac rescue helicopter.

With this summer getting into full swing and the prospect of a holiday season similar to last year, demand for the rescue helicopter looks likely to set new records.

"When the sun’s shining we tend to try to get out of town in too much of a hurry, hence the high number of motor vehicle accidents that our crews are asked to attend," says helicopter rescue trust marketing and fundraising manager John Hooper.

"Once people get to their destination safely they dust off their recreational pursuits and, as a natural consequence, accidents happen."

Alastair Mason of Warkworth is not only helping by way of a generous donation to the trust but is also donating items for an auction and raffle being held at Matakana House on December 30.

From noon to midnight, Matakana House is holding its second Matakana Big Day Out where live bands will perform throughout the day and evening.

"It’s only logical that the more people in town, the more rescues the helicopter is going to perform," says Matakana House owner Gerry Pole.

Mr Pole will meet all the operational and overhead costs so all proceeds from the event, including the $5 cover charge, raffle proceeds and any other sponsorships, will go in their entirety to the rescue helicopter appeal.

If you’ve ever wanted to learn to fly a helicopter this would be your opportunity. The Westpac rescue team is bringing along their helicopter simulator to take supporters for a ‘flying lesson’.

"The event raised about $3000 in 2006, and this year the target is $5000 which will fully fund the next mission to the district. When that happens, Mr Pole gets a plaque to share with his supporters setting out the bare bones of the mission on which the money was spent," says Mr Hooper.

Coast Guard Urges “Best Safety Practices” for Upcoming Winter Storms

SAN FRANCISCO - As the winter storm season approaches, the Coast Guard is urging the boating public to exercise responsible practices, and to keep beach safety guidelines in mind.

Each year, the Coast Guard responds to reports of vessels and objects breaking free from moorings, anchorages, and piers. Such derelict vessels may result in a hazard to navigation and become a potential pollution risk.

Mariners are urged to ensure anchor and mooring lines are in good condition, and to remove all oil and hazardous materials from vessels as poor weather approaches. Additionally, all loose materials and supplies left onboard should be securely stowed to prevent shifting, which may cause instability.

Boaters are encouraged to stay off the water if poor weather is forecast. Should it become necessary to leave the dock, mariners should ensure that all safety and navigation equipment, such as lifejackets, marine radios, and distress signals, are in proper working condition. Mariners should always carry registered, 406-Mhz Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRB) as well as cold weather immersion suits to protect against the elements, especially when sailing offshore.

During winter weather, the public should also avoid beaches and rocky shorelines, as the surf will be unpredictable, increasing the likelihood of being swept into the sea.

The public is reminded that Bay Area storms occasionally result in wave heights and wind conditions that can exceed the operating limitations of Coast Guard search and rescue assets, making it difficult and dangerous to respond to situations of distress. The public should always check weather conditions and stay off of the water and away from beaches and rocky shorelines unless to ensure their safety as well as the safety of emergency responders.

For more information on safe boating practices, visit www.uscgboating.org . For updated weather forecasts, check www.weather.gov.

RS

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Can China's Future Earthquakes Be Predicted?

Can China's Future Earthquakes Be Predicted?

ScienceDaily (Nov. 24, 2008)Ji ShaoCheng of the Université de Montréal's affiliated engineering school École Polytechnique is part of a team studying last May's devastating earthquake in China.

On May 12, 2008, at 2:28 p.m., China's Szechwan province changed forever. In the space of 90 seconds, an earthquake equivalent to 1,200 H-bombs pulverized the earth's crust for more than 280 kilometers. Entire cities disappeared and eight million homes were swallowed up. This resulted in 70,000 deaths and 20,000 missing.

Two months later, ShaoCheng arrived in Szechwan province to study the damage first hand. The extent of the damage was unimaginable: roads and bridges collapsed, schools turned into rubble, and bodies of men and women everywhere.

According to ShaoCheng this tragedy could have been avoided. "There hasn't been one earthquake in Szechwan province for 300 years. Chinese authorities thought the fault was dead," he says.

The problem is that China relied on GPS data, which showed movements of 2 mm per year in certain areas when in reality the shifts were much bigger. "GPS is high-tech, but do we really know how to interpret its data?," he questions.

ShaoCheng was recruited by one of his ex-colleagues with whom he completed his PhD in Montpellier and who now works for the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences. His mission is to dig three narrow wells, 3-kilometers deep, into the earth's crust for a whopping $75 million.

"The drilling will allow us to see the characteristics of the rocks before and after the earthquake. We will also measure their thermal properties and fluid pressure," says ShaoCheng. "One of these wells will have a seismometer and another will be equipped with a device similar to a stethoscope designed to listen to the earth's heartbeat."

It is expected to take five years of hard labour to rebuild the devastated region.

WEATHER NOTE

Local Meteorologist Wins Big Award

Meteorologist Mark W. Rose was awarded the 2008 National Weather Association Public Education Award at the Annual Conference in Louisville in October. Mark is a meteorologist at the NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office here in Birmingham.

Mark was chosen for the award for the design, development and marketing of a nationally recognized weather safety DVD called “Surviving the Storm.” The program is geared to elementary school children and focuses on severe weather safety as well as the role of the National Weather Service.

Speaking to school groups is a critical part of the weather community’s outreach to the public about weather safety. Our very own James Spann is a leader in this area, speaking in a different school almost every day. Mark was frequently asked to speak in schools about severe weather. Of course, there are lots of schools and little time, which is frustrating.

His answer was to develop “Surviving the Storm.” He secured sponsor dollars to produce the DVD. Knowing that quality would be a key concern, he hired a professional company to do the production.

Distribution would be key. Mark contacted the Alabama Department of Education to get the DVD into schools. The state Emergency Management Agency came up with the money to duplicate the 1,000 or so DVDs that would be required. As a result, every school administrator at every public and private school in Alabama has the video.

Other organizations have contacted Mark about the video, including the National Weather Service in Memphis. The team there sent it out to all of its emergency managers. Other state Emergency Management Agencies have expressed interest in using the DVD, including Oklahoma. They called this week.

Mark, like most of us, has held a fascination with weather since childhood. The most interesting weather phenomenon to him is the thunderstorm.

He is a 22 year veteran of NOAA’s National Weather Service. He started as an intern at the NWS in Mobile. He transferred to the NWS Birmingham in 1989. He and his family live in Vestavia Hills. His wife works as the Curator for the Beeson Divinity School at Samford University. Their son is a freshman at Samford and their daughter is a high school junior. He is the President of the local National Weather Association chapter.

MARITIME NOTE

Skippers responsible for safety checks

25/11/2008 9:18:38

Boaties are being reminded to carry out simple safety checks before heading out onto the water in the wake of the tragedy which saw two children drown last year.

Auckland father Lindsay Rowles has been sentenced to 250 hours of community service after pleading guilty to operating a vessel causing unnecessary risk or danger.

Rowles' two children, eight-year-old Erina and five-year-old Travis drowned near Shag Island in the Hauraki Gulf when the aluminium boat they were asleep in started taking on water because a bung was not in place. The adults on board were unable to get the children out of the cabin when the boat hit rocks and quickly sank.

Jim Lott from Maritime New Zealand says the agency will again be reinforcing its national safety strategy this summer. He is reminding boaties to always wear life jackets and inform others straight away when difficulty arises. Mr Lott believes about 70 percent of all fatalities on the water could be prevented if those points were adhered to.

Mr Lott says at the end of the day it is the skippers' responsibility to ensure the safety of passengers and crew.


RS

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

How Global Warming May Affect U.S. Beaches, Coastline

How Global Warming May Affect U.S. Beaches, Coastline

ScienceDaily (Nov. 24, 2008) In “Dover Beach,” the 19th Century poet Matthew Arnold describes waves that “begin, and cease, and then again begin…and bring
the eternal note of sadness in.”

But in the warming world of the 21st Century, waves could be riding oceans that will rise anywhere from 0.5 meters (19 inches) to 1.4 meters (55 inches), and researchers believe there’s a good chance they will stir stronger feelings than melancholia.

Several scientists from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego are finding that sea level rise will have different consequences in different places but that they will be profound on virtually all coastlines. Land in some areas of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States will simply be underwater.

On the West Coast, with its different topography and different climate regimes, problems will likely play out differently. The scientists’ most recent conclusions, even when conservative scenarios are involved, suggest that coastal development, popular beaches, vital estuaries, and even California’s supply of fresh water could be severely impacted by a combination of natural and human-made forces.

Scripps climate scientists often consider changes in average conditions over many years but, in this case, it’s the extremes that have them worried. A global sea level rise that makes gentle summer surf lap at a beachgoer’s knees rather than his or her ankles is one thing. But when coupled with energetic winter El Niño-fueled storms and high tides, elevated water levels would have dramatic consequences.

The result could transform the appearance of the beaches at the heart of California’s allure.

“As sea level goes up, some beaches are going to shrink,” said Scripps oceanographer Peter Bromirski. “Some will probably disappear.”

Sea level has been trending upward for millennia. For the last 6,000 years, it is estimated that global sea levels have rising an average of five centimeters (2 inches) per century. Before that, between 18,000 and 6,000 years ago, the seas rose a full 120 meters (400 feet). Step by step, they bit into rocky coastlines like California’s by smashing cliffs, creating beaches with the debris, rising a bit more, and repeating the process over and over again.

Humans are speeding up the pace of that assault. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that sea level rose, on average, 1.7 millimeters (0.07 inches) per year over the entire 20th Century. But recent estimates from satellite observations find a marked increase, at 3.1 millimeters (0.12 inches) per year since 1993.

The oceans are rising because the warming ocean water increases in volume and because water is being added from melting glaciers and land-based ice sheets. The complex difficult-to-predict contribution of the latter is such a matter of controversy that the recent IPCC Fourth Assessment report didn’t factor glacial melt into its sea level rise estimates. Today there is quite broad-based opinion that the IPCC estimates are considerably lower than the higher range of possible sea level rise. Some individuals, pointing to the quantity of water frozen in Greenland and Antarctica and to ancient sea level evidence, have suggested that sea level rise could reach several meters by the end of the 21st Century. However, an August paper in the journal Science co-authored by former Scripps postdoctoral researcher Shad O’Neel suggests that some of the more exaggerated claims that water could rise upwards of 10 meters (33 feet) by century’s end are not in the realm of possibility. O’Neel and co-authors indicate that the realities of physics impose a cap of 2 meters (6.6 feet) for possible sea level rise by 2100.

“That’s fine,” said Scripps climate researcher Dan Cayan, who is leading an analysis of climate change scenarios for the state of California, “but two meters is still enough to do a lot of damage.”

Recent news footage of overtopped levees makes it easy to envision what two meters’ difference means to low-lying cities like New Orleans, especially when extreme events like hurricanes are factored in. Any flooding would be proportionately higher than it is now. Additionally Bromirski recently showed that sea level rise will amplify the power and frequency of hurricane-generated waves that reach shore, even if the storms themselves don’t make landfall.

In contrast to the beaches of the East Coast, many of which are covered with vast expanses of sand, California’s coastline is predominantly bedrock covered by a relatively thin veneer of sand. That sand can shift or disappear during storms. Thus, preserving the precious supply that keeps the tourists coming has for decades been a priority for state officials. Resource management, however, has required them to make trade-offs. They have constructed seawalls to protect houses built on ocean cliffs. They have dammed rivers to create supplies of water for drinking and to prevent floods and debris from damaging downstream developments.

In so doing, nature’s two primary sources of beach replenishment have been muted in a process known as passive erosion. Managers have compensated through artificial beach replenishment projects but at a costs that approach $10 per cubic yard. Since usually millions of cubic yards of sand need to be moved, there are monetary limits to what they can reasonably accomplish.

Reinhard Flick, who received his doctorate in oceanography from Scripps in 1978, needs only to look out his office window to watch the losing battle of beaches unfold. During his student days, he used to play volleyball on stretches of sand that are now underwater except during low tide. Rocks buried under several feet of sand four decades ago are now exposed for large parts of the year.

The staff oceanographer for the California Department of Boating and Waterways, Flick said that seawalls causing passive erosion will likely combine with sea level rise to doom some Southern California beaches. The change will become most apparent during El Niño events, when a pool of warm Pacific Ocean water settles off the coast for a year or two. El Niño has a dual effect on the West Coast. It not only feeds more intense storms but the warm ocean water itself causes a temporary spike in sea level that is above and beyond the rise that climate change is causing. During the 1997-98 El Niño, for instance, tide gauges off San Francisco recorded that sea level was 20 centimeters (8 inches) above normal for more than a year, including the winter storm season. That temporary rise is about equal to the rise observed for the entire 20th Century.

If sea levels rise substantially, when a large storm coincides with a high tide during an El Niño event, there could be widespread inundation along the California coast. Effects could range from a submersion of areas of San Diego’s Mission Beach to an inundation of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. There, an overtopping of the delta’s levees by brackish water could paralyze the main component of the state’s water delivery system. Cayan noted that repairs to the system could take months.

The threat resonates with state officials, who have tasked Scripps and other institutions with creating and updating sea level rise scenarios.

“There’s no clear path forward with sea level rise,” said Tony Brunello, deputy secretary for climate change and energy at the California Resources Agency, a key Scripps partner in developing the state’s response to manifestations of global warming. “You typically want to work with one number (but) what we want people to do is work with the whole range of estimates.”

Cayan and other Scripps researchers who are collaborating to study sea level rise emphasize that there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the creation of estimates for the coming century. The range of rise estimated by Cayan is based on scenarios of global air temperatures over the next 100 years, which range from about 2° C (3.6° F) to about 6° C (10° F). By 2100, global sea level rise reaching a half-meter seems likely, and if the higher rates of potential warming occur it could rise by more than one meter. The potential cost of any government project or policy change puts a high premium on narrowing this range. As O’Neel and his co-authors observed in their paper, the cost of raising Central Valley levees only 15 centimeters (6 inches) to prepare for higher sea levels has been estimated at more than $1 billion.

“These are very broad-brush preliminary kinds of studies right now, but you have to start somewhere,” said Scripps coastal oceanographer Bob Guza.

Flick said it will be essential for scientists to be able to study the effects of the next El Niño so they can begin to understand not just where damage will happen on the California coast but to what extent. He only had surveyor’s equipment and aerial photos available to him to measure beach changes after the 1982-83 El Niño, but Guza and his collaborators now have light detection and ranging (LIDAR) and GPS technologies to make precise surveys of beach and cliff damage. Guza and Flick hope that Scripps can not only enhance its use of such technology but to deploy it within hours of a major storm event.

“We need to be geared up to quantify what beach changes are,” said Flick. “We have to do an even better job of studying wave forces and wave climate.”

If there’s any good news for Southern California, Scripps climate scientist Nick Graham has estimated that ocean warming trends will drive storm tracks farther north, perhaps sparing the state’s lower half from the full brunt of buffeting El Niño waves the 21st Century will generate. Graham compared winds produced in three different simulations of climate change with those generated in the late 20th Century. The models showed that Southern California can expect a moderate decrease in wave size of about 0.25 meters (10 inches). But even there, Graham sees a problem.

“I’m a surfer. I think that’s horrible,” he said.

WEATHER NOTE

New comprehensive report on impact of earthquakes in the Central USA


DOWNLOAD THE REPORT HERE


The Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Center at the University of Illinois announces the release of its report entitled "Impact of Earthquakes on the Central USA". The report is the outcome of one of the largest and most comprehensive earthquake consequence assessment projects funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The report contains earthquake impact assessments for the 8 central US (CUSEC) states, and lists damage and other consequences to the built environment as well as social and economic impacts. The earthquake scenarios used represent the New Madrid, the Wabash Valley and the East Tennessee seismic zones. The analysis employs new and more reliable hazard and inventory data that has not been used before.

The project is managed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, and the work was undertaken in partnership with the Institute for Crisis, Disaster and Risk Management at the George Washington University, with contributions for the 8 State Geological Surveys, IEM, FEMA, US Geological Survey and CUSEC. The report is available for download at IDEALS .

Bound paper and CD copies are available from Jessica Vlna, Program Coordinator, email: vlna@illinois.edu.

MARITIME NOTE

Ship's accidents of different kind.



Ship's Disasters Gallery 2007 - Click here for more blooper videos


RS

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Simulation Shows What Would Happen If Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake Hit California

Simulation Shows What Would Happen If Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake Hit California

ScienceDaily (Nov. 10, 2008) The 2,000-strong community of Census of Marine Life scientists from 82 nations has announced astonishing examples of recent new finds from the world’s ocean depths. Mollusk expert Patricia Miloslavich (Venezuela), Census co-senior scientist: “We are beginning to pull together a picture and clarify the complicated and interconnected global drivers of marine biodiversity patterns and changes, and we are starting to see the conservation-related implications and benefits, from the small coves of the near-shore to the vast abyss.”

Antarctic ancestry of many deep-sea octopuses worldwide

Within their mandate "to assess and explain the diversity, distribution, and abundance of marine life in the oceans – past, present, and future,” Census of Antarctic Marine Life scientists report the first molecular evidence that a large proportion of deep sea octopus species worldwide evolved from common ancestor species that still exist in the Southern Ocean.

Octopuses started migrating to new ocean basins more than 30 million years ago when, as Antarctica cooled and a large icesheet grew, nature created a “thermohaline expressway,” a northbound flow of tasty frigid water with high salt and oxygen content.

Isolated in new habitat conditions, many different species evolved; some octopuses, for example, losing their defensive ink sacs – pointless at perpetually dark depths.

This revelation into the global distribution and diversity of deep sea fauna, to be reported Nov. 11 in the journal Cladistics, was made possible by intensive sampling during Census International Polar Year expeditions.

Other findings are listed below.

Distribution of sea life

Scientists discover both a “White Shark Café” and a “sturgeon playground” in the Pacific, as others explore life on a “new continent” in the mid-Atlantic, in oceanic canyons, around Earth’s deepest hot vents, and in the world’s coldest, saltiest seawater;

Deep sea diversity

Deep sea explorers discover new forms of life, including behemoth bacteria, colossal sea stars, astonishing Antarctic amphipods and a mammoth mollusk, and find familiar species in many new places. Experts also estimate that, beyond the 16,000 marine fish species already known to science, another 4,000 await discovery, many of them in the tropics.

Abundance

Researchers find a sea floor carpet of bugs and a city of brittle stars, and document bluefin tuna abundance in the early 1900s by scouring fishery reports, fishing magazines and other records.

Meanwhile, the Ocean Biogeographic Information System has grown to include more than 120,000 species. And a rapidly-expanding reference library of DNA barcodes of marine species recently helped reveal inaccurate labeling of sushi in New York City and elsewhere.

As well, the national and regional networks expediting much of the Census work expanded from 10 to 12 since 2006. They and the field projects of the Census established precedent-setting ethical standards for marine research.

As more than 700 delegates gather for the World Conference on Marine Biodiversity (Valencia, Spain Nov. 11-15), organized by the Census’s European affiliate program on Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning, the report details major progress towards the first ever marine life census, for release in October, 2010.

Other research highlights

1) Exploring a “new continent” in mid-Atlantic: MAR-ECO (http://www.coml.org/descrip/mareco.htm) scientists describe their work as “surveying a new continent half way between America and Europe.” Sampling along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at depths down to 2,500 meters, they find many hundreds of species rare or unknown elsewhere in the world and collect environmental data to help explain their distribution and abundance.

2) World’s deepest known active hot vent: ChEss (http://www.coml.org/descrip/chess.htm) scientists in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge explore the world’s deepest known active hot vent, field named Ashadze, over 4,100 meters deep, dominated by anemones, polychaete worms and shrimp. They also discover marine environments with little or no oxygen harboring more life than expected.

3) Bacterial mats in Black Sea: ChEss scientists also find reefs deep in the Black Sea made of bacterial mats using methane (natural gas) as an energy source, the bacteria forming spectacular chimneys up to four meters high. Such reefs could contribute key insights into mechanisms controlling emissions of methane, an important greenhouse gas, from the ocean to the atmosphere.

4) Brittle Star City: Exploring off the coast of New Zealand, CenSeam (http://www.coml.org/descrip/censeam.htm) researchers capture images of a novel “Brittle Star City,” whose inhabitants colonize the peak of a seamount – an underwater summit taller than the world’s tallest building. In a swirling circumpolar current flowing at roughly four kilometers per hour, tens of millions of brittle stars live arm tip to arm tip. The current kept away would-be predators while delivering an ample supply of food that residents of Brittle Star City collected simply by raising their arms.

5) Surprisingly different twins: NaGISA (http://www.coml.org/descrip/nagisa.htm) nearshore scientists in the Alaskan Arctic find a site with a rocky seafloor, rare along the normally soft and silty Arctic coastline. The hard substrate hosts a highly diverse community compared to surrounding soft bottom habitat. Comparison of this new site to a similar site surveyed by Census researchers in 2002 shows surprisingly different communities. Census nearshore scientists collaborating with local agencies also discover new species in the Aleutian archipelago, including a kelp, sea anemones, chitons, snails, and sea stars.

6) Pacific hotspots: TOPP (http://www.coml.org/descrip/topp.htm) researchers discover eddies of warm water in the Pacific may meld, forming hotspots in the open sea that support elevated levels of tiny phytoplankton that form the base of the marine food web. These green meadows in the vast Pacific in turn concentrate species from all tiers of the food web – from shrimp to large predators like tuna, seabirds, and whales.

7) Seep mega-sites: COMARGE (http://www.coml.org/descrip/c-margins.htm) and ChEss scientists discover more lively communities flourishing off cold gases such as methane seeping out of the sea floor. Around New Zealand, they map the “Builder’s Pencil” site covering about 180,000 square meters, among Earth’s largest known seep sites. Sensitive to human activities despite their depth, the communities keep revealing unique features. Finding both potential new species and scars from deep-water trawls by fishing vessels on the scientific surveys suggests the urgency for further conservation of these fragile habitats.

8) Philippine firsts: In the first deep-sea work in the area, COMARGE researchers sample to a depth of 2,300 meters, collecting about 300 fish and 400 mollusc species for barcoding. Some 320 decapod crustaceans are photographed, displaying their beauty and aiding future identification of many unique and subtly distinct specimens.

In 2008, COMARGE investigators return to explore the Philippine margin of the South China Sea, between 100 and 2,200 meters depth. Discoveries include the first Philippine record of the deep-water stony coral Lophelia pertusa, the first living specimen of Acharax bartschi (a large bivalve living in symbiosis with bacteria), rare deep-water snails living on a dog’s skull that had washed out to sea, and a likely new species of shrimp belonging to a group only known from hydrothermal vents. The trawl also collected many plastic shopping bags.

9) Potential new marine protected area, Africa: While largely unexplored, the rich Western Indian Ocean, including the Mozambique channel, suffers destructive fishing practices, such as use of dynamite. Census-affiliated explorers with the Sub-Sahara African Committee chart a proposed marine protected area off Tanga, Tanzania. Using SCUBA and remotely operated vehicles, Tanzanian scientists and students join international researchers to survey life along transects that could be periodically revisited, collecting samples for identification and barcoding.

10) Life in coldest, saltiest seawater: ArcOD (http://www.coml.org/descrip/aobio.htm) researchers studying life in the Arctic find temperatures of –25°C in sea ice channels where brine is more than six times saltier than regular sea water. Representing the coldest conditions in the global ocean, researchers find sea ice algae, such as diatoms, and flagellates thriving in concentrations of thousands of individuals per liter.

11) 100 new species and records near Hawaii: CReefs (http://www.coml.org/descrip/c-reefs.htm) experts census biodiversity in the French Frigate Shoals, the world’s largest, fully protected marine area in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Using a variety of new and proven methods over a diverse range of habitats, the team logs more than 100 species and new records.

12) Carpet of bugs: COMARGE researchers describe a new species of amphipod, Ampelisca mississippiana, inhabiting the head of the Mississippi Canyon about 460 meters deep in the Gulf of Mexico. These small crustaceans (less than 6 millimeters in length) and living in tubes, carpet the seabed in densities up to 12,000 individuals per square meter. Based on its abundance and the stabilizing effects this “carpet of bugs” has on sediments, researchers believe this amphipod may have great ecological importance.

13) Deepest comb jelly: CMarZ (http://www.coml.org/descrip/cmarz.htm) explorers find a potential new species of comb jelly, or ctenophore, at the record depth of 7,217meters in the Ryukyu Trench near Japan – the deepest ever recorded siting of this unique species, that flies like a kite on the end of two long “strings” attached to the bottom. The discovery raises questions about the availability of food resources at such depths, which had not been thought capable of supporting predators like this one.

14) Evolutionary mollusk: In the Southern Ocean, CAML (http://www.coml.org/descrip/caml.htm) researchers find many potential new species including sea cucumbers, sponges and komokiaceans – little known protozoa living in the depths of the ocean resemble the organisms that form chalk. They also collect a rare mollusk, named Laevipilina antarctica, believed to play a role in how segmentation evolved in marine invertebrates.

15) Arctic jellies galore: In the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean, ArcOD researchers find several new species and more than 50 taxonomic categories of gelatinous zooplankton. Almost two-thirds are medusae, one-fifth siphonophores, and one-tenth larvaceans. The first new species formally described from the expedition was named Sigambra healyae, in honor of the research vessel, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy.

16) 85 new zooplankton species: CMarZ scientists discover at least 85 new species of zooplankton, small drifting and swimming marine animals. Four genera and one family were officially deemed new to science, with many more expected to follow. In the Atlantic Ocean from Germany to South Africa, scientists collect zooplankton in a range from the surface to below 5,000 meters. Taxonomic experts and geneticists identify and barcode the DNA from hundreds of species. As expected, several new species of small crustaceans called ostracods or seed shrimp and other groups are found.

17) Antarctica’s big amphipod: CAML scientists exploring a 10,000 kilometer portion of the Antarctic Weddell Sea made suddenly accessible by the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves sample an estimated 1,000 species. Of these, four presumed new species of cnidarians (organisms related to coral, jelly fish and sea anemones) are found, as well as 15 potentially new amphipod (shrimp-like) species, including one of Antarctica’s biggest-ever amphipod crustaceans, nearly 10 centimeters long.

18) Spectacular species in Celebes Sea: Zooplankton researchers with CMarZ travel to a biodiversity hot spot in the Celebes Sea in the southern Philippines, uncovering unexpected richness and diversity of marine life from the surface to the almost totally unexplored deep waters. Divers collect a remarkable variety of fragile and beautiful gelatinous species, while video cameras and collect images and organisms from depths beyond the divers' reach.

19) Surprising species richness: Recent advances in technology are opening up remote frontiers – deep-sea canyons. COMARGE researchers aboard the RRS James Cook off Portugal find that species richness was almost double in the more active Nazaré Canyon than in Lisbon Canyon. This is despite Lisbon Canyon receiving a substantial supply of river-borne organic matter that would foster large populations of filter-feeding organisms.

20) 11,130 known species in South African waters: Experts with the Census’ Sub-Sahara African Committee estimate 6,000 more species, primarily smaller marine animals, are yet to be discovered in South African waters, which are already known to feature some 11,130 species. A new shrimp (Hippolyte) and the first record of the enigmatic group Myzostomida from the region are discovered in False Bay, the most sampled site on the African coast.

21) 870+ squat lobster species: COMARGE scientists list 870 known species of squat lobsters and create an electronic library of relevant literature. Squat lobsters are colorful decapod crustaceans found in all oceans, at all depths, and in all marine habitats, but are especially abundant on continental margins.

22) Antarctic expressway: In the Southern Ocean, Census CAML explorers find evidence that deep sea octopuses ride the “Antarctic thermohaline expressway.” The northbound expressway is a mass of sea water with a high salt density caused by the ice that forms at the surface around the Antarctic, the water cascading like cream.

They find as well that sea birds feed on Antarctic zooplankton when the tiny organisms aggregate at a thermal front.

23) Animals in new places: ArcOD explorers make the first record of many marine animals in many areas of the Canada Basin. These include abundant and diverse ctenophore (comb jellies) under Arctic pack ice and a dense bed of sea cucumbers in what might be a pockmark. They also record more squid than ever before in the Arctic deep sea, and document the importance of sea ice ridges for marine life in the region.

24) White Shark Café: Satellite tagging by TOPP reveals a previously unknown behavior of white sharks (http://www.eol.org/taxa/17143484), travelling long distances each winter to concentrate in the Pacific for up to six months. During these months, both males and females make frequent, repetitive dives to depths of 300 meters, which researchers theorize may be significant in either feeding or reproduction.

25) Migration pathway: MAR-ECO researchers suggest the Mid-Atlantic Ridge may serve as an important pathway in colonization of North Atlantic continental slopes. Before their expeditions, scientists thought skates and rays, for example, migrated through the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, rather than taking up residence there.

26) New species in familiar waters: Systematically exploring two islands on the Great Barrier Reef and a reef off northwestern Australia, CReefs researchers find hundreds of new kinds of animals in waters were long familiar to divers. They also conduct the first scientific inventory of spectacular soft corals, named octocorals for the eight tentacles that fringe each polyp.

27) Australian expedition: One species in three new to science: The first results from the COMARGE “Voyages of Discovery” expeditions to the deep continental shelf and slope in Australia’s southwest region show 524 species of Decapoda—crabs, shrimps, prawns, lobsters, and the like. Some 33 percent of all species encountered are suspected to be new species, and 25 percent are new records in the region, eight percent are new records for Australia.

28) Sponge garden: COMARGE and ChEss researchers examining cold seeps in the Mediterranean Sea using remotely operated vehicles find surprisingly abundant marine life, including a garden of sponges around a brine lake. The sponge itself, likely Rhizaxinella pyrifera, harbours a multitude of small worms.

29) Behemoth bacteria: A diverse set of giant, filamentous, multi-cellular marine bacteria is discovered by ICOMM (http://www.coml.org/descrip/icomm.htm) researchers in the eastern South Pacific. These bacteria may be “living fossils” that developed in the earliest ocean when oxygen was either absent or much diminished, living on the toxic gas hydrogen sulfide. Scientists hypothesize that communities of bacteria may hold potential for bioremediation of organically polluted bottoms and, because of their ability to survive in anoxic conditions, may be an important clue in the search for extraterrestrial life.

30) Colossal sea stars: CAML expeditions to the Southern Ocean find frequent examples of gigantism common in Antarctic waters. The researchers collect huge scaly worms, giant crustaceans, starfish and sea spiders as big as dinner plates.

31) Largest mollusk in class: A giant aplacophoran mollusk, Chaetoderma felderi, is collected in deep waters off Louisiana by GoMex, a Census-affiliated project working in the Gulf of Mexico. Measuring over 407 mm in length and 10 mm in diameter, about the size of a AAA battery, it is more than twice the length and three times the diameter of the next largest known mollusk in the subclass.

32) Gigantic oysters: With the assistance of a remotely operated vehicle, COMARGE explorers find dense communities of giant oysters 20 cm (eight inches) long at a depth of 700 m on the La Chapelle continental slope. Genetic studies will confirm if this is a new species.

33) Barcoding zooplankton: An international CMarZ team from 25 cooperating projects is analyzing data from roughly 6,000 historical samples to help create a catalog of described species diversity and distribution. DNA barcodes will identify approximately 7,000 known species of zooplankton in 15 phyla. This growing database will help scientists identify specimens, describe their geographic distributions, and recognize when a species is in fact new. Scientists envision a day soon when quick, automated sample barcoding analysis will be a reality.

34) Following fishers to find vents: Stymied in their search for active methane seeps in the Chilean margin, COMARGE scientists take a novel approach: follow the fishers. They launch their search in known fishing grounds of the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides), suspecting that these fish congregate near methane seeps. Their hunch proves correct: Most fishing grounds were associated with hard grounds, with some made of carbonates associated with methane seepages.

35) Coral reef colonization: To learn what new creatures colonize coral reefs, CReefs scientists develop and test Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS), to be colonized by fish and other creatures that inhabit coral reefs. The structures mimic the “nooks and crannies” of a natural reef. With this information, marine scientists can better understand the health of reefs and policy makers can develop scientifically-based management strategies.

36) Mapping microbes: To identify marine microbes and survey their distribution around the globe, ICoMM launches 40 separate projects using the same DNA sequencing technology, “454 tag-pyrosequencing.” The efficient identification by a standardized method allows scientists to inventory areas as diverse as polar biodiversity hotspots, coastal microbial mats, and sediments in tropical coral reefs. They can then create unprecedented global maps of the tiniest life in the ocean.

37) Arctic robots: Two new underwater robots give ChEss scientists a bird’s eye view of what lives on Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic Ocean. These exploration vehicles carry cameras and sophisticated arrays of instruments used by scientists to discover a new underwater volcanic chain covered by extensive microbial mats. Because the deep Arctic ridges are isolated from other ocean basins, the investigation of Gakkel Ridge provides clues about the evolution of fauna around underwater vents in isolated habitats.

38) Nearshore research expands worldwide: NaGISA expands nearshore research within the Caribbean, South America, and around the Indian Ocean through regional workshops aimed at standardizing protocols. Scientists use these protocols in monitoring and educational program to assess environmental impacts and to engage local communities in the process.

39) A highly detailed look at biodiversity in a well-documented bay: A unique collaboration of U.S. and Canadian GoMA (http://www.coml.org/descrip/gom.htm) researchers enhances knowledge of changing marine eco-systems by studying the nearshore zone of Cobscook Bay, Maine, from both historical and present-day perspectives. One of the most diverse coastal ecosystem on the North American east coast north of the tropics, this estuary features many different habitats, a tidal range of over eight  meters, two centuries of historical records dating back to 1842, and more than 800 species identified to date.

40) Engaging the public: NaGISA scientists studying the nearshore environment of the world ocean are present on six continents. Science education programs and training workshops aim to incorporate research protocols, which makes data gathered in the coastal environment comparable from place to place. The nearshore investigations engage the public in ocean and coastal issues and inspire the next generation of marine scientists.

41) International study of plankton bloom: In the Southern Ocean, collaborating CeDAMar (http://www.coml.org/descrip/cedamar.htm) researchers follow a plankton bloom from its onset until it changes to marine snow and finally sinks to the deep-sea floor. The scientists then examine the influence of the snow of fallen plankton on marine life on the floor itself. It is the first such collaboration undertaken since the Galathea expedition in the early 1950’s. In spite of bad weather and complicated logistics, the collaboration produces a trove of data.

42) Leading research for International Polar Year: Census projects play a key role in the International Polar Year 2007-2009. In the Arctic, the Census leads the marine biodiversity cluster of 13 projects from eight countries on more than 20 expeditions. They observe how mammals use diverse polar habitats, inventory life in a fjord, and explore seeps, pockmarks, and mud volcanoes on remote ocean floors. In the Southern Ocean, the Census coordinates the science on 10 major expeditions by vessels from nine different countries, the results reported live via the Internet. The Census also initiates a collaborative program focusing on Antarctic marine life in seven South American countries.

43) Race to protect sea turtles: The Great Turtle Race, an international race developed by TOPP to save a 100-million-year-old species from extinction moved to China in 2008. A Mandarin language version of an interactive webpage tracks the migration of endangered leatherback turtles, bringing the race to approximately 100 million Chinese citizens. Donations go to protection of leatherback turtle nesting areas in Indonesia, and raise awareness of the turtles plight.

44) Leatherback conservation: For more than 12,095 satellite-tracking days over three years, TOPP scientists track leatherback turtles and compile the largest, multi-year migration record ever. The data reveals that ocean currents shaped the migration corridor and turtle dispersal in the South Pacific.

45) Hydrothermal vents and seabed mining: ChEss scientists orchestrate a joint scientific and policy meeting for the spring of 2009 to discuss protection of the vent sites from the potential growth of deep sea mining. The meeting’s goal: set priorities for future research and balance the conservation of critical vent sites versus the value of ores.

46) Focusing fishery management: MAR-ECO research along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge strives to fill information gaps about the distribution and abundance of certain species of grenadier (http://www.eol.org/taxa/17063155), distant relatives of codfish in the North Atlantic. Amid the uncertainty, regional managers take precautionary measures to protect grenadier stocks and their habitats.

47) CSI in the sea: DNA barcoding shark fins: Demand for their fins and other organs impact global shark populations. The frequently inaccurate identification of sharks and rays confuses what fishermen are catching, what fins and organs markets are selling, and how populations are changing. Accordingly, researchers with the Marine Barcode of Life project (http://www.marinebarcoding.org/publications) develop DNA barcoding to identify species of sharks and their products, such as dried fins, essential to knowing how many sharks are being caught and to enforce prohibitions. (See also http://phe.rockefeller.edu/docs/pacificfishingsept2008.pdf)

48) Managing underwater mountains: CenSeam expeditions in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica expand knowledge of life on seamounts, providing a foundation for sustainable management of these ecosystems. Census researchers deliver a report to the United Nations General Assembly on the vulnerability of seamount corals to fishing and help develop guidelines for deep-sea fisheries.

49) Learning from the past: Rise and fall of tuna: Scouring fishery reports, fishing magazines, and other records, HMAP (http://www.coml.org/descrip/hmap.htm) researchers document the presence of bluefin tuna (http://www.eol.org/taxa/17050078) in northern European waters several decades before the onset of major fisheries in the early 1900s. After fishing increased and techniques became more powerful, the fishery collapsed in the mid-1960s. Documentation of the historical abundance of this especially popular seafood species, and its subsequent collapse, will be used to inform future decisions.

50) Assessing human impact: HMAP brings together a worldwide network of experts from multiple disciplines to figure out why populations of mollusc have declined. They report their work in a book, Early Human Impact on Megamolluscs (Oxford: Archaeopress).

51) High mortality for young salmon: Using acoustic tagging, POST (http://www.coml.org/descrip/post.htm) researchers track the progress of young Chinook salmon (http://www.eol.org/taxa/17154704) as they move from freshwater rivers in the Canadian and US northwest out to the ocean and eventually to the Alaska coast. The observations suggest that in just a few weeks, 40 percent of the tracked salmon perished in the ocean.

52) Sturgeon playground: POST researchers discover green sturgeon congregate at a “playground” off Vancouver Island before moving on to Alaska for the winter, contrary to scientists’ expectations. The reason for their layover is unknown, but it makes them susceptible to potential over-exploitation.

53) Conserving life in open ocean: MAR-ECO documentation of the quantity and patterns of diversity on the mid-Atlantic Ridge summit at 3,500 meters helps international management organizations protect habitats and assure sustainable resource use. Continued work by Census scientists and a variety of partners creates a better basis for conservation of marine life in the immense areas of the oceans that lie beyond national jurisdiction.

54) Tuna and Billfish distribution: FMAP (http://www.coml.org/descrip/fmap.htm) researchers investigate the global distribution patterns of two highly migratory predators, tuna and billfish, and relate the information to the temperature tolerances of these species, work that may help anticipate the effects of ocean warming on biodiversity.

55) OBIS reaches 16 million records: Census experts creating the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (http://www.coml.org/descrip/obis.htm), log 16 million biological records, with 17 million expected by year’s end, received from nodes around the world. Collaboration with the Encyclopedia of Life, among others, expedites information sharing, creating an integrated system containing geographical, biographical, evolutionary, and genetic information, as well as images.

56) Counting all creatures in the Gulf: Scientists complete a comprehensive inventory of all marine life in the Gulf of Mexico. Published in a 79-chapter book written by 140 authors from 15 countries, the inventory shows 15,625 species from 40 different phyla in the Gulf. A second phase of the project currently underway will make the information available in a searchable online database.

57) Listing all species, eliminating aliases: The list of known marine species surpasses 120,000, placing the Census halfway toward its goal of cataloging the estimated 230,000 known species by 2010. The Census-affiliated World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS) identifies more than 56,000 aliases for ocean species, with one species, the “breadcrumb sponge,” alone having 56 scientific names.

58) 4,000 Marine Fish May Await Discovery: Employing a novel approach to count quantify global fish species, FMAP researchers estimate that almost 16,000 species of marine fish are recorded in publicly accessible databases. They suggest another 4,000 fish species await discovery and description, many of them in the tropics.


WEATHER NOTE


Ike's surge means slow coastline recovery

ANGLETON — Hurricane Ike's storm surge was so widespread, so high and so violent that it will take much longer than usual for the Texas coastline to recover, the director of coastal resources for the Texas General Land Office said.

Ike washed millions of tons of beach sand into coastal marshes so far out into the Gulf that some beaches will be changed forever, Eddie Fisher said at a town hall meeting at the Brazoria County Courthouse.

"We're going to have to do a lot of beach replenishment projects," Fisher said.

He said about 100 homes on Galveston Island are now on the surf side of the vegetation line — the line used to denote public beaches.

So much vegetation has been stripped away that the Land Office plans to use a line of elevation 4.5 feet above mean sea level to establish the new beach line until vegetation returns, he said.

The first maps of the 4.5-foot line should soon be available on the Land Office Web site at www.glo.state.tx.us, he said. Maps of the city of Galveston will be done first, then Bolivar and Brazoria County, he said.

Mapping Bolivar Peninsula is especially difficult, he said, "because there is so much total destruction. We lost all our benchmarks."

Coastal residents did get some good news.

Brazoria County Commissioner Dude Payne said the county has approved $1.9 million to build a 16-foot-wide crushed concrete temporary road to replace parts of County Road 257, also known as the Blue Water Highway, between Surfside Beach and San Luis Pass.

He said a more permanent roadway will cost $50 million to $100 million because sand dunes or rock revetments also will have to be constructed to protect it from future storms.

State Rep. Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, said a legislative subcommittee will soon start holding meetings on how to help the coast recover from Ike.

Deryl Tumlinson, of CenterPoint Energy, said work teams are rebuilding the power line from Surfside Beach to subdivisions at San Luis Pass and plan to have power to those areas restored by Nov. 10.

MARITIME NOTE

Inquest recommendations accepted by locals

Direction of Dept. of Transport a cause of concern for some


The owner of a marine contracting business is pleased with the jury's recommendations into the inquest of a 2004 boating accident.

A coroner's jury has recommended stricter licencing and safety requirements for the more than 50,000 small commercial vessels operating in Canadian waters.

The jury's recommendations were made last month after a four-day inquest into a boating accident at Payette Island, near Honey Harbour, on Dec. 10, 2004, in which 39-year-old Eugene Bovingdon drowned after the work-boat he was aboard capsized. Three other men aboard the vessel reached shore safely.

"Almost four years ago we were saddened by the loss of employee Eugene Bovingdon," said Armin Grigaitis, owner of A and A Services and Marine Contracting Limited.

"All those feelings and emotions were rekindled for staff and family and we extend our heartfelt condolences to Eugene's family."

He said the business and its employees continue to work with the Ministry of Labour, Transport Canada, the Construction Safety Association and fellow colleagues in the marine construction industry to establish improved safety protocols for all workers who travel on the water.

"Our hope is Eugene's passing will induce more people in the industry to work with these same agencies," he said.

Although he is concerned that Transport Canada, in the last few years, has moved to a self-inspection program rather than expert inspection services for these types of vessels.

Grigaitis said his company will continue to diligently bring to the forefront the areas of concern for the marine construction industry.

Although not familiar with the accident, Michael Dubeau, co-owner of Midland Tours, said any recommendations that are going to better the safety of passengers and employees should be taken seriously.

"There should be no short cuts for safety."

He said with larger passenger vessels, the industry has gone through safety changes "as a result of things that have happened like the drowning of the students in Tobermory."

He said Transport Canada needs to be aware of the number of commercial vessels that are in the marketplace, and the ones that are registered and not registered.

"The biggest problem is the cutbacks," he said. "Transport Canada just doesn't have the personnel to be out in the marketplace to do the things that these recommendations are asking for."

Midland Tours features the Miss Midland 30,000 Islands Boat Cruises on Muskoka-Georgian Bay, Serendipity Princess Barrie Boat Cruises on Kempenfelt Bay, Casino Rama tour packages, and escorted motor coach day and overnight Tours.

The jury does not make any finding of legal responsibility and its recommendations are not legally binding.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

* The owners of small commercial vessels should form an association to communicate with Transport Canada, to communicate safety expectations and to expedite safety training.

* In water conditions of 15 degrees Celsius or below, a cold water immersion suit should be worn by all persons on a small commercial vessel up to 15 gross tonnes.

* Safety equipment should be standardized on all small commercial vessels under 15 gross tonnes.

* All vessels under 15 gross tonnes that have the potential to be used as cargo or passenger boats should be registered as small commercial vessels.

* Information pertinent to registering a small commercial vessel should be readily available from Transport Canada to the public through sites such as Service Canada outlets, selected marinas, and the marine policing units.

* Transport Canada should ensure that all registered small commercial vessel owners are provided with relevant safety information. This will include current regulations, acts, ship safety bulletins, contact numbers where owners might seek assistance, the Small Vessel Monitoring and Inspection Program, and the Small Commercial Vessel Safety Guide.

* Every small commercial vessel owner is required to license their vessel with Transport Canada and renew the licence every four years.

* A licence will not be granted unless and until the small commercial vessel passes an inspection by Transport Canada or authorized accredited marine personnel.

* All new small commercial vessels up to 15 gross tonnes need a conformity plate permanently attached to the transom. This plate would state a safe working load, maximum number of passengers, date of inspection, and expiry date within four years of inspection.

* No modification shall be made to a small commercial vessel up to 15 gross tonnes without prior authorization by Transport Canada. Upon completion of the modification, the vessel shall be inspected by Transport Canada or by authorized, accredited marine personnel.

* All small commercial vessels up to 15 gross tonnes in Canada are required to have liability insurance as stated in recommendation # 37 of the True North inquest.

* Owners of small commercial vessels up to 15 gross tonnes should pursue all available means to ascertain safety requirements and regulations pertaining to their particular vessels.

* Automatic or floating switch bilge pumps should be installed in every small commercial vessel up to 15 tonnes.

* Owners of small commercial vessels up to 15 gross tonnes and employees should be required to take The Small Vessel Operator Proficiency Course and The Marine Emergency Duties Course in order to educate themselves about water safety and emergency situations.

* During winter months, owners of small commercial vessels up to 15 gross tonnes and employees should obtain weather forecast updates throughout the day.

* There should be harsh penalties for non-compliance with occupational safety or marine safety laws or regulations.

* Amend the Canada Labour Code and encourage provincial labour jurisdictions to broaden the definition of "workplace" so that it will encompass transportation to and from a job site if that transportation involves travel on water, air or land where a Highway Safety Act does not apply.

* Every small commercial vessel up to 15 gross tonnes should be equipped with a VHF radio and the vessel's operator should file a sailing plan before the vessel's departure.

* Every small commercial vessel up to 15 gross tonnes should be equipped with an electronic position-indicating radio beacon (EPIRB).

* Transport Canada should develop partnerships with third parties (eg. accredited marine mechanics, marine architects, or marine surveyors) to inspect small commercial vessels up to 15 gross tonnes, with assistance and advice from Transport Canada inspectors.

12 of 20 Cruise Ships Cited for Pullution


According to a report from the Anchorage Daily News, an analysis by state regulators shows that more than half of the cruise ships that discharged wastewater regularly into Alaska waters received citations.

The analysis shows 45 tests on wastewater violated permit levels for pollutants. The most common violation was for ammonia, found in urine.



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