Technological advancements improving accuracy in predicting weather

Technological advancements improving accuracy in predicting weather

Study weather reports online, and you might want to give up on meteorology.

"Deadly" storms fizzle, while weaker-looking fronts devastate. Temperatures often soar above predicted highs or plummet below predicted lows.
But for all the obvious errors, weather forecasting has gotten much better over the past couple of decades, and the improvements have saved many lives and dollars.


Further forecasting improvements will provide exponentially more benefits to individuals and businesses, although meteorologists doubt they'll ever be able to see more than a couple weeks out.

"Just having really accurate seven-day forecasts will change the world in countless ways," said Walt Zaleski, a warning coordination meteorologist from the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth.

"Airlines could move flight times to avoid storms. Retailers could schedule more workers for nice days. Utilities could prepare for surging power demands."

We're not there yet, of course, but we're much closer than we were 20 years ago.

The two-day forecast of today is as accurate as the one-day forecast was in 1988. The seven-day forecast now is as accurate as the five-day forecast was then.

Extreme-weather forecasts have improved even more over the same period.

People who once received on average five minutes' warning before a tornado – and no warning at all 74 percent of the time – now get 13 minutes' warning on average, and receive some warning 69 percent of the time.

Flash flood forecasts now come, on average, more than an hour before the floods themselves.


Radar improvements

Much of the improvement comes from a new generation of radar that went into service in the early 1990s. Unlike older radar technology, which basically bounced off storms, today's Doppler radar units can peer through fronts and measure things such as wind speed.

The improvement of radar and other weather-sensing technology complements the continual upgrades to computers. More sensors generate more numbers. Faster computers crunch those numbers. And the cycle keeps repeating.

"Not only will we become more accurate over longer periods, we hope to shrink our forecast areas and to forecast different conditions inside the same forecast area," said Mark Fox, a weather service meteorologist in Fort Worth.

"For example, rather than forecasting rain for the entire Dallas-Fort Worth area, we might be able to say it will rain in Dallas but not Fort Worth – or that the rain will hit Fort Worth at 3 and Dallas at 4.

"If you look far enough into the future, we might be able to say it will rain in West Plano but not in East Plano, but that's a long ways off."

Getting to that point will require far better equipment and some big discoveries.
Researchers have already developed the next generation of radar, which sees in all directions at once rather than spinning around.

Perhaps more important, dozens of companies are developing cheap sensors that can provide computers with real-time information in numerous locations.

Rather than getting data from a few dozen spots in any given area, meteorologists will eventually get data from thousands of spots.


Affecting businesses

Many companies already use weather forecasts to save money. Shippers route their trucks away from storms, for example. Farmers cover crops on frosty nights. Builders wait for sunny weeks to pour concrete.

More accurate forecasts will make all of that much easier.
A shipper who sends trucks 500 miles out of the way might eventually be able to cut the detour to 100 miles. Builders will see fewer surprise showers that keep their cement from drying properly.

Optimists see even more potential.

Weather affects nearly everything – crime rates, health, even how many people go to stores, restaurants and movies. Accurate forecasts could allow police departments, hospitals, restaurants and other organizations to optimize their staffing for any given day.

Sound far-fetched? British hospitals already work with forecasters to predict surgeries for various ailments affected by the weather. They use those predictions not just to set staffing levels but also to schedule nonemergency procedures on days that are likely to produce fewer emergencies.

"Another area we're excited about is getting more factors into our forecasts, things beyond temperature and precipitation," said Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Severe Storms Lab in Boulder, Colo. "People now might decide that Friday looks like a good day to cut the lawn because we say that it's going to be sunny and cool, but they might change their minds if we could tell them to expect a high UV index and a lot of pollutants in the air.

"That's quite a few years away, but we'll get there."


WEATHER NOTE

NASA Ames Goes Green with Launch of New Web Site

MOFFETT FIELD, Calif. – NASA today launched a new "Greenspace" Web site to showcase several environmentally friendly projects that are underway at NASA's Ames Research Center to improve life here on Earth.

The Web site offers in-depth information about Ames' work on global prediction, monitoring and response of changing weather conditions to better understand why climate change is taking place, enhance our awareness and improve disaster response.

Ames also is working on alternative and clean energy to help us become energy independent and reduce our production of greenhouse gases.Ames is working on sustainable systems in the area of life support for NASA's new mission to return to the moon. The center is also supporting the green government initiative to develop greener, cleaner facilities."Greenspace is the first NASA Web site that houses all the green-related research and activities in one place," said Jeffrey Smith, deputy chief of Ames' entrepreneurial initiatives division. "The site makes it easy for anyone to read about Ames' cutting-edge climate change, renewable energy and sustainability research and how that makes Ames a greener place to work and a good Bay Area neighbor."

Ames is partnering with leaders in Silicon Valley and around the globe to put NASA's data and assets to work mitigating climate change through innovative partnering and intensive collaboration.

For more information about the green initiatives at Ames, visit:http://green.arc.nasa.gov

MARITIME NOTE

Rescue chopper has a record year
by Abi Thomas

Northland Electricity rescue helicopters flew two missions on average each day last year.
Their crews also fitted an extra month's flying time into the year, doing the equivalent of 13 months' work in the past 12.

So says Northland Emergency Services Trust chairman John Bain, after 2008 began with the "busiest month we've had in 20 years" last January.

Job numbers for the trust's two choppers were up nearly 10 per cent last year. Many were simple jobs like hospital transfers, but others involved difficult rescues in remote bush or coastal areas. The most recent high-profile job was Tuesday's winch rescue of four people off a boat off the Bay of Plenty coast.

Mr Bain said that over the past six years the workload of the trust helicopters had increased by 8 or 9 per cent annually, and 2009 would be no different. "But when we fly more, our costs go up," he said.

The trust paid for maintenance, fuel and even insurance in US dollars, and while the exchange rate had become more favourable in mid-2008, fluctuations made the helicopters' costs uncertain.

Fixed costs had gone up by 50 per cent last year.

Mr Bain was grateful to the Northland public for supporting the trust's annual appeal, which combined with donations from Top Energy and Northpower raised $300,000. Mr Bain was most proud of last year's rescues which involved use of the helicopter's winch. "There have been about 14 or 15 times when we've used the winch, and it means we've got that advantage."

Proud moments for the crews were "when you know you've given someone the best shot at staying alive".

Mr Bain urged people heading out to enjoy bush areas and coastlines to be prepared. The most efficient thing people could do in an emergency was trust the 111 number and to carry an emergency position-indicating radio beacon (epirb) and a light source to aid rescue, he said.




RS

NOAA models tsunami warning system

NOAA models tsunami warning system

High-resolution computer models of Oregon’s coastline that simulate tsunamis and floods have been developed by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency announced Dec. 10.

Emergency managers will use the models to create evacuation and rescue plans for potential incidents, agency officials said, adding that the digital elevation models were developed by NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science.

The models cover the Oregon coastal area from Port Orford to the Columbia River.

The digital elevation models provide a framework that allows scientists to forecast the magnitude and extent of coastal flooding caused by a tsunami or storm surge with greater accuracy than older models, NOAA said. Since 2006, scientists have created 28 digital elevation models of U.S. coastal areas and an additional 45 digital elevation models are planned for the future.

The coastal digital elevation models are part of the U.S. Tsunami Forecast and Warning System and the new Oregon models will assist the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industry map tsunami evacuation zones, the agency said.

NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle incorporated the models into distant tsunami model scenarios, the agency said, adding that the scenarios simulate offshore earthquakes, the resulting tsunami that travels across the Pacific Ocean, and the potential floods when the tsunami reaches the coast.

With that information, NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers can issue more accurate flooding forecasts if an earthquake triggers an actual tsunami, agency officials said.

WEATHER NOTE

Insurers' natural disaster losses rise in 2008
Overall losses from Gustav and Ike were about twice the insured losses.

By Geir MoulsonASSOCIATED PRESS
Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Insurers' losses from natural disasters rose by about 50 percent in 2008, with Caribbean hurricanes Ike and Gustav powering the increase and climate change increasingly becoming a factor, a leading reinsurer said Monday.

Munich Re AG said in an annual review that insured losses came in at $45 billion this year, up from nearly $30 billion in 2007. It said total economic losses, including losses not covered by insurance, leapt to $200 billion from last year's $82 billion.

That increase was due in part to the devastating earthquake that hit China's Sichuan province in May. Munich Re said the quake caused overall losses of $85 billion — by far the year's biggest — but insured losses of only $300 million.

Munich Re said the year was marked by high losses from weather-related natural disasters, continuing a long-term trend.

"Climate change has already started and is very probably contributing to increasingly frequent weather extremes and ensuing natural catastrophes," board member Torsten Jeworrek said in a statement.

"These, in turn, generate greater and greater losses because the concentration of values in exposed areas, like regions on the coast, is also increasing further throughout the world." The company noted that six named storms — Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike — reached the U.S. coast this year after two years in which the American mainland was largely spared.

The year's most expensive event for insurers was Hurricane Ike, which hit the Caribbean and the southern United States in September, causing insured losses of $15 billion. In second place was Gustav, which hit shortly before and caused losses of $5 billion.

In both cases, the overall losses were about twice the insured losses.

Munich Re said an unusually severe snow- and ice-laden cold spell in China in January and February, which hit roads, railways and electricity supplies, cost insurers $1.6 billion. That's well short of the overall economic losses, which it estimated at $21.1 billion.

A winter storm that hit central Europe in early March cost insurers some $1.5 billion. Munich Re said an unusually severe U.S. tornado season, with a total of 1,700 tornadoes, also proved costly. A series of tornadoes that killed 12 people in late May generated insured losses of more than $1.3 billion.

The year's deadliest disaster was Cyclone Nargis, which devastated coastal areas in Myanmar in early May, killing nearly 85,000 people. Munich Re put overall economic losses at $4 billion but gave no figure for insured losses in the isolated country.

Though they rose sharply for the second consecutive year, this year's insured losses were still well short of the $99 billion Munich Re recorded in 2005, when losses were swollen by claims from Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans.

The company said that year also saw a record overall economic loss of some $232 billion, adjusted for inflation.

As a reinsurer, Munich Re offers backup policies to companies that write primary insurance policies.

Reinsurance helps spread risk so that the system can handle large losses from natural disasters.

Top News of the Day from NWS Chicago!

Top 10 Weather Events for 2008 for Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana (pdf)
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MARITIME NOTE

Can other vessels see you on radar?



It is important that skippers of radar-equipped vessels know the capability of their own radar to detect other vessels in order to avoid collisions. However, it is critical for skippers of all vessels to know if radar on another vessel can detect their own vessel. This is especially important as weather deteriorates and visibility decreases. The range at which a vessel can be detected by radar depends on many variables, such as the radar power, antenna, the vessel’s radar cross section (how strongly it reflects radar), and the environmental conditions (weather, waves, rain, fog, etc.) Nominal detection range in ideal conditions

Keeping a sharp eye on the radar for other vessels is key, but making sure your boat can be seen by the radars of other vessels is important too. (Beau Rogers) Marine radar encompasses small recreational systems transmitting at between 2 kW and 4 kW, to professional systems transmitting between 12 kW and 50 kW. Radar cross section (RCS), expressed in square meters (m2), measures how strongly a target reflects radar pulses. Radar detects larger RCS targets with less power, at longer range, and in more severe weather conditions.

Targets addressed in this article range from one square meter RCS (1 m2) for a person or small inflatable to about 10 m2 for a large recreational vessel, with 5 m2 being representative of pleasure boats. The accompanying table summarizes maximum detection ranges in clear weather for typical marine radars and targets. While detection may occur at greater ranges than shown in certain circumstances, most of the time environmental conditions and weather limit detection to shorter ranges. The table indicates that low-power radar on a pleasure vessel will usually not detect another pleasure craft at much more than one mile, whereas a commercial ship will not detect a pleasure boat at more than four to five miles, in good weather.

Large, ocean-going ships with powerful scanners might double this. If these detection ranges seem short, remember that recreational vessels are small, both physically and as reflectors of radar pulses. For example, the radar cross section of a Navy cruiser, which is not an especially large ship, is about 160,000 m2. It is huge compared with the typical 5 m2 pleasure boat.

Other things being equal, radar that detects a cruiser at 10 miles will not detect a pleasure sailboat at more than one mile. The table also shows the difference between the typical 48-mile recreational radar (4 kW) and the typical 16 or 24-mile radar (2 kW). The greater maximum range is useful only for detecting high cliffs when far out at sea, or storm clouds at altitude, as anything on the surface beyond 16 miles would be well below the radar horizon and undetectable. The main difference is that greater power usually comes with a better antenna and more sensitive electronics, resulting in a three-fold improvement in detection range (everything else being the same).

Flat seas decrease range Detecting a vessel in perfectly calm water is more difficult than detecting it in moderately rough seas. Although this is counter-intuitive, detection in a seaway is complicated because every pulse transmitted by the scanner goes to the target over two paths. One path is direct from the antenna to the target; the other path includes reflection from the water. The two pulses combine at the target with the result that power delivered to the target may be quite different from what would be the case in the absence of reflection from the water.

One effect of this multipath pulse cancellation is to reduce maximum detection range for targets on the surface of the water. Since most of the radar-reflecting elements of a small boat are in the hull, close to the water, maximum detection range for a pleasure vessel in smooth water is much shorter than given in the table; roughly a third. Multipath pulse cancellation decreases as the seas build and the ranges shown in the table become more accurate as seas reach about seven feet. The thing to remember is that flat-sea maximum detection ranges are much shorter than shown in the table. Fog attenuates radar

Rain, fog and sea state all affect your ability to see other vessels. In poor conditions, detection range can be significantly reduced. (Beau Rogers) Fog attenuates the radar signal and reduces detection range. How much the fog reduces detection range depends on the visibility distance, scanner power, and the extent of fog between scanner and target. Here we assume that fog extends over the entire distance between scanner and target vessel. When the maximum detection range in clear weather is short to begin with, for example, the target vessel is small, or the radar on the other vessel is a low-power recreational system, percentage reduction in detection range does not mean much in absolute terms.

For example, fog with six-meter visibility reduces detection range of two miles in clear weather to 1.5 miles, an absolute reduction of half a mile. On the other hand, when the maximum detection range in clear weather is long, for example, the target vessel’s RCS is large, or the radar on the other vessel is a high-power professional system, percentage reduction in detection range is far more significant. Fog with six-meter visibility reduces 10-mile detection range in clear weather to less than four miles, a six-mile reduction. Sea-clutter limits detection Waves produce target-masking clutter. Since waves cover a large area of the sea, they produce numerous blips covering a large area of the display.

These mask returns from useful targets like your vessel by filling up, or cluttering the display with blips due to waves. While the radar operator can adjust controls to minimize the visual cluttering effect, reliable target detection is possible only if the target produces a stronger return than the nearby waves. The operator simply decreases the gain until the clutter disappears, leaving blips representing desired targets. Of course, this works only if the target is stronger than the clutter.

That is, the target must stand out against the background clutter. Scanner power is irrelevant, since increasing power simply increases both clutter return and target return the same amount. Waves reflect radar pulses when the wave face is perpendicular to the radar beam. The distance from the scanner at which the waves are perpendicular to the radar beam is proportional to wave height and to the height of the scanner.

The strength of the reflection, i.e. the effective RCS of the sea surface, depends on the wave height and distance from the scanner. It peaks at a certain sea-clutter limit distance, which depends on the antenna height and sea state. The radar return from more distant waves becomes insignificantly small. At shorter distance, the radar return from waves remains roughly constant. Usually the wave clutter appears in the direction from which the waves approach, generally to windward. Five-foot waves produce a sea-clutter limit of about a half mile around a scanner 10 feet above the waterline. Doubling the wave height or doubling the antenna height each doubles the clutter limit. The same five-foot waves that produce a half-mile clutter limit around a pleasure powerboat might produce a two-mile clutter limit around a small ship with scanner 30 feet above the water, and out to six miles for a very large ship.

Skippers of radar-equipped pleasure boats used to seeing a small area of sea-clutter on their radar display must understand that a large ship experiences a much larger clutter limit due to the scanner height. Summarizing the effect of sea-clutter on detection range is difficult because of the dependence on antenna height and wave height. Generally, the larger radar systems are generally on larger ships and are higher, so the clutter ring is larger. Consequently, you will disappear into the clutter at greater range from a large ship than from a recreational vessel. You should remember that detection of your vessel outside the sea-clutter limit ring is determined by signal power (i.e. RCS, transmitter power, distance, and attenuation from fog and rain). Sea-clutter limits detection inside the clutter ring.

Waves can cause shadows Since most of the reflecting material in a pleasure boat is in the hull, waves larger than a vessel’s freeboard can shadow the vessel whenever it is in the trough between waves. The vessel can be detected only when it is on the crest of a wave; it will be masked and undetectable when in a trough. The resulting intermittent detection makes it difficult for a human radar operator to see the vessel’s radar blip and virtually impossible for automated systems like ARPA to detect and track it. Rain attenuates radar pulses Rain and other precipitation such as snow and sleet reduce detection range in two ways.

First, rain attenuates the radar pulses just as fog does. The difference being that the amount of rain is described as rainfall rate in millimeters per hour (mm/h), rather than as visibility range. Second, rain produces clutter return similar to wave clutter. When rain surrounds the target, clutter is invariably the dominant factor rather than attenuation. Since the clutter return is proportional to the amount of rain (and the rainfall rate) in the volume of space covered by the beam, and the beam fans out with range, there is always a rain-clutter-limited-detection-range that depends only on the rainfall rate and target RCS. Beyond this limit, you will not be detected. Closer than this limit, you may be detected if range and attenuation don’t prohibit it. The key concept is that detection is possible only at ranges shorter than the rain-clutter limited detection range, which depends only on the rate of rainfall.

The classic radar reflector for smaller yachts is the corner reflector mounted in the “catch rain” orientation in the rigging often from a spreader. (John Snyder) Consider a large recreational vessel target and a small professional 12 kW radar. In clear weather, the target may be detected at five and a half miles. If rain surrounds the target, detection range is clutter-limited to slightly less than three and a half miles by drizzle and to slightly more than one mile by light rain. Moderate or heavier rain limits detection to less than half a mile. Rain surrounding the vessel severely restricts detection. Even light rain will limit detection in most cases to little more than a mile. A high-power professional radar will do better, because the beam width is narrow and it is less affected by rain-clutter.

You should remember that detection of your vessel inside the rain-clutter limit ring is determined by signal power (i.e. RCS, transmitter power, distance, and attenuation from fog and rain). Rain-clutter limits detection outside the clutter ring. Pleasure vessels are not strong radar targets, multipath pulse cancellation limits detection range in calm sea conditions, shadowing limits detection when the waves are larger than the freeboard, and the radar horizon is limited because the target is on the surface. Fog and rain attenuate the signal and reduce the probability that a pleasure vessel is detected.

Clutter from waves and rain may make detection impossible regardless of the scanner power. As skipper of a pleasure vessel in good weather and calm seas, you may think in terms of being detected by low-power recreational radar at half a mile or so and by professional radar on a large ship at four miles or so. Detection range improves about three to one as the seas build to seven feet or if a good radar reflector is mounted on the vessel. Other than that, darkness, light drizzle, moderate fog, and waves up to three feet have little effect on detection range.

This reflector on the stern will provide some reflectivity, but won’t greatly increase radar visibility. (John Snyder) Detection in bad weather is problematic. Thick fog and drizzle extending over large areas may attenuate the radar signal greatly and reduce detection range severely. If the rain surrounds your vessel, clutter restricts detection to ranges shorter than the rain clutter limit range, which is about one mile in light rain, half a mile in moderate rain, and even shorter in heavier rain.

This is independent of the radar. Detection range may be better if your vessel is large, or if you have a good radar reflector, but the skipper of a recreational vessel should not count on being detected at more than half a mile in moderate rain. Waves generate a clutter limit. Outside the clutter limit, wave clutter has little effect on detection. Inside, detection is possible only if the target is larger than the wave clutter. Three-foot waves are not much of a problem. Five-foot waves require a moderately large radar reflector; eight-foot waves require about 10 m2; 10-foot waves probably preclude detection entirely. The sea-clutter limit is proportional to antenna height and sea state; the larger ships, i.e. higher antennas, experience the larger clutter rings, up to several miles. Detection range may be better if your vessel is large or if you have a good radar reflector, but the skipper of a recreational vessel should not count on being detected at less than a mile in eight-foot waves. It does not take much in the way of rain or waves to limit detection of a pleasure boat to a mile or less.

A vessel approaching at 20 knots would have no more than three minutes to detect you, identify you, track you and determine risk of collision, and decide on a course of action. A large vessel wouldn’t be able to avoid you under these constraints.

Your best option is to proceed with caution in bad weather.

RS

CG funds turbine impact on radar study

CG funds turbine impact on radar study

The Coast Guard revealed this week that it has contracted for a study of the effects on marine radar from the wind farm proposed for Nantucket Sound.

At the end of a radar and navigation forum Tuesday in North Falmouth, Raymond Perry, captain of the port for Sector Southeastern New England, announced the study, Coast Guard Senior Chief Richard Uronis said yesterday.

The $100,000 study should be completed by December, Uronis said. It will be performed by Maryland-based Technology Service Corp.

A second forum on radar and navigation issues is being planned after the study is complete, he said.

Cape Wind Associates wants to build 130 wind turbines on 25 square miles in the middle of Nantucket Sound. Advocates say it would provide clean energy with minimal impact on the local environment and maritime safety.

Opponents have decried the plan, citing concerns ranging from the impact on endangered birds to navigational and safety issues discussed at Tuesday's forum.

As part of a draft environmental impact statement released in January by U.S. Minerals Management Service — the lead agency reviewing Cape Wind — the Coast Guard placed a list of conditions on its approval of the project. The conditions required the Minerals Management Service and Coast Guard to determine whether "identified impacts, if any, allow for an acceptable risk to navigation safety."

The Minerals Management Service expects to issue a final report on Cape Wind by the end of the year. Agency officials did not return messages yesterday seeking comment on whether the Coast Guard radar study would influence their review of Cape Wind.

At Tuesday's forum, dueling radar analyses were presented to Perry that drew different conclusions on the impact of the proposed wind turbines.

According to Raytheon principal engineering fellow Eli Brookner, there are three potential problems Nantucket Sound wind turbines could pose for radar.

"If you had a small vessel located in what we call the side lobes you wouldn't see it, and so it could be a hazard not seeing that target," Brookner said in a telephone interview yesterday.

Side lobes are radar beams that spill over from the main beam and can cause "clutter," Brookner said.

Additionally, so-called "shadowing" can occur when turbines or ships behind the closest turbines may be obscured on radar screens, he said.

Finally, radar systems that automatically track targets may "swap" a moving target such as a ship with a stationary turbine, Brookner said.

Brookner said he studied maritime radar issues at the request of a friend whom he did not identify and was not paid for his work.

Glenn Wattley, the president and CEO of the region's main anti-Cape Wind group, the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound, said his organization asked Brookner to look at the radar issue but did not pay him.

Capt. Dennis Barber, a British ship captain who has worked as a consultant for Cape Wind, presented an opposing view of the impact of the proposed turbines Tuesday, saying that mariners could easily determine the location of nearby boats near the proposed wind farm, according to attendees of the forum. Barber could not be reached for comment yesterday.

About 20 panelists debated other navigational issues Tuesday, including whether there should be a wider buffer zone between the wind turbines and ferry routes, Uronis said.

"We need a proper spacing between the ferry route and the wind towers," Edmund Welch, a spokesman for the Passenger Vessel Association, a trade group that represents the Woods Hole, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Steamship Authority and the Hy-Line ferry lines, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

A Cape Wind spokesman did not return a telephone call last night seeking comment.

WEATHER NOTE

Future risk of hurricanes

Scientists focus on hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea to assess likely changes

Researchers are homing in on the hurricane-prone Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea to assess the likely changes, between now and the middle of the century, in the frequency, intensity, and tracks of these powerful storms. Initial results are expected early next year.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., working with federal agencies as well as the insurance and energy industries, has launched an intensive study to examine how global warming will influence hurricanes in the next few decades.

The goal of the project is to provide information to coastal communities, offshore drilling operations, and other interests that could be affected by changes in hurricanes.

"This science builds on years of previous investment," said Cliff Jacobs, program director in the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Division of Atmospheric Sciences, which is funding the project. "The outcome of this research will shed light on the relationship between global warming and hurricanes, and will better inform decisions by government and industry."

The project relies on an innovative combination of global climate and regional weather models, run on one of the world's most powerful supercomputers.

"It's clear from the impacts of recent hurricane activity that we urgently need to learn more about how hurricane intensity and behavior may respond to a warming climate," says NCAR scientist Greg Holland, who is leading the project. "The increasingly dense development along our coastlines and our dependence on oil from the Gulf of Mexico leaves our society dangerously vulnerable to hurricanes."

The new study follows two major reports, by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that found evidence for a link between global warming and increased hurricane activity.

But many questions remain about future hurricane activity. For example, the CCSP report concluded that future changes in frequency were uncertain, and that rainfall and intensity were likely to increase, but with unknown consequences.

Improved understanding of climate change and hurricanes is an especially high priority for the energy industry, which has a concentration of drilling platforms, refineries, pipelines and other infrastructure in the region that are vulnerable to severe weather.

Hurricanes Gustav and Ike damaged offshore oil production and several refineries, disrupting gasoline supplies.

The project is part of a larger effort examining regional climate change between 1995 and 2055.

The simulations are being run on NCAR's bluefire supercomputer with support from NSF, NCAR's sponsor, and through a long-term collaboration with the insurance industry through the Willis Research Network.

"This research program by NCAR is a major contribution to the insurance industry and public policy makers," says Rowan Douglas, managing director of Willis.

"The primary way to improve our understanding of present and future hurricane risk is to generate computer simulations of storms in unprecedented detail."

For the project, the model will examine three decades in detail: 1995-2005, 2020-2030, and 2045-2055. Scientists will use statistical techniques to fill in the gaps between these decades.

A major goal is to examine how several decades of greenhouse-gas buildup could affect regional climate and, in turn, influence hurricanes and other critical weather features. Scientists will also investigate the impact of the powerful storms on global climate.

One of the most difficult technical challenges for such a project is to create a model that can capture both the climate of the entire world and the behavior of a single hurricane.

To get around this roadblock, NCAR has developed an approach called Nested Regional Climate Modeling (NRCM). The center "nests" a special version of its high-resolution weather model (the Weather Research and Forecasting model, or WRF) inside its lower-resolution, global climate model (the Community Climate System Model, or CCSM).

The resulting simulations show fine-scale detail for certain regions, like the Gulf of Mexico, while also incorporating global climate patterns.

For each of its decade-long time slices, the NRCM's resolution will be about 20 miles across Africa, Europe, and the South Atlantic, 7.5 miles across the tropical Atlantic and northeastern United States, and an even sharper 2.5 miles over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, southeastern United States, and drought-prone western United States.

"Combining weather and climate models in this way enables more detailed projections of hurricanes in a warming world than any study to date," says Holland. "These projections will help reduce the uncertainty of current assessments, and they also serve the very important role of providing experience about applying future predictions of changes to high impact weather systems in general."-National Science Foundation

MARITIME NOTE

U. S. Coast Guard Rescues Sailors Remotely from 3,500 Miles Away - it's AMVER!

The following Coast Guard story was spotted in Euroweekly News, the English news source in Spain for Mallorca, Costa Blanca, Costa de Almeria, Costa del Sol, Heart of Andalucia and Algarve.

The U. S. Coast Guard's sophisticated AMVER system enabled a daring sea resuce to take place 3,500 miles from the Coast Guard AMVER Center on Governor's Island in New York.
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Four Swedish sailors were rescued last week by the Greek tanker, ‘Parthenon’, in a dramatic high-seas rescue which was hampered by weather so rough that a rescue helicopter had to return to shore.

Swedish Sailboat, Sun Chaser, in distress
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The US Coast Guard revealed in a press release that Captain Vasileiadis Lazaros, master of the Greek-flagged tanker, was sailing to the Port of Setubal when his crew picked up a distress call from the Swedish sailboat, ‘Sun Chaser’ which was in difficulties approximately 84 miles west of the Algarve’s Cape Saint Vincent. Within two minutes of receiving the call, Captain Lazaros was on the bridge, directing the ship to proceed to the stricken sailboat.
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The distress call was received through the ‘Automated Mutual Assistance Vessel Rescue System’ (AMVER), sponsored by the United States Coast Guard, a computer-based, voluntary global ship-reporting system used worldwide by search and rescue authorities to arrange for assistance to persons in distress at sea. The ‘Parthenon’ has been an AMVER participant since 2003.
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Greek Tanker Races to the Scene
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Steering the 800 foot tanker, managed by the Tsakos Group of Athens, towards the distress location, Captain Lazaros notified Portuguese rescue authorities. “I ordered all crew to stand-by on deck,” stated Captain Lazaros as he began preparing to rescue the four Swedes. Coordinating his efforts with Radio Lisbon, Captain Lazaros overheard a Portuguese rescue helicopter order the Swedish sailors into a lifeboat.
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“The sailors radioed the rescue helicopter and said they could not abandon ship in the rough weather because their lifeboat had been ripped from the sailboat and drifted away,” Captain Lazaros added. As the weather conditions deteriorated, the helicopter was unable to safely hoist the sailors and returned to base, leaving the 107,000 ton dead- weight tanker the only means of rescue for the sailors.
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“I ordered the Sun Chaser to make fast to our port side amidships and had the crew lay down the pilot ladder,” Captain Lazaros recounted in an email to the U. S. Coast Guard AMVER center. Within two minutes of lowering the pilot ladder, the first survivor was safely on board the Parthenon. Within three hours of receiving the initial call for help, the Parthenon had rescued all four Swedish sailors.
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The Survivors
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The survivors, two men and two women, were cared for aboard the Parthenon before being taken to Setubal, where they were met by Portuguese officials. With the AMVER system, rescue coordinators can identify participating ships in the area of distress and divert the best-suited ship or ships to respond. Prior to sailing, participating ships send a sail plan to the Amver computer centre. Vessels then report every 48 hours until arriving at their port of call. This data is able to project the position of each ship at any point during its voyage and, in an emergency situation, any rescue coordination centre can request this data to determine the relative position of AMVER ships near the distress location. On any given day, over 3,300 ships are available to carry out search and rescue services.
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About AMVER:
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AMVER, sponsored by the United States Coast Guard, is a unique, computer-based, and voluntary global ship reporting system used worldwide by search and rescue authorities to arrange for assistance to persons in distress at sea.With AMVER, rescue coordinators can identify participating ships in the area of distress and divert the best-suited ship or ships to respond.
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AMVER's mission is to quickly provide search and rescue authorities, on demand, accurate information on the positions and characteristics of vessels near a reported distress.

Weather Eye: noisy oceans threaten life under water

he world’s oceans are growing noisier, thanks to the rising levels of carbon dioxide. This could create a cacophony of sounds that will make life difficult for whales and dolphins, which use their shrills and rumbles for navigation and communication and, rather like a room full of people shouting at each other, their calls could get lost in an underwater din.

It seems unbelievable that carbon dioxide would make a difference to anything on Earth because it only makes up about 0.04 per cent of the atmosphere. But when air dissolves in water, the carbon dioxide makes carbonic acid. Although a very weak acid, it slowly eats away chalk and limestone, which is how Cheddar Gorge and its caves were made.

As carbon dioxide dissolves in the oceans it is turning the water more acidic. This has an impact on sound travelling through the water, because sound waves are absorbed by certain types of charged molecules that stick together in seawater. As the sea becomes acidic, the charged molecules absorb less sound, and so the sound waves travel further.

A recent study has found that carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans has increased sound travel by about 10 per cent throughout the Atlantic and Pacific. And by mid-century this is expected to rise up to 70 per cent further. With noise travelling further, this could create an underwater din that will make life much more difficult for whales and fish that live on reefs that also use sound.

The increasingly acid oceans are also hurting sea creatures such as diatoms and corals. Their shells are made of carbonate that is corroded by carbonic acid.

Have a great and safe weekend!

RS

Global Warming Will Have Significant Economic Impacts On Florida Coasts, Reports State

Global Warming Will Have Significant Economic Impacts On Florida Coasts, Reports State

ScienceDaily (Oct. 1, 2008) — Leading Florida-based scientific researchers released two new studies today, including a Florida State University report finding that climate change will cause significant impacts on Florida's coastlines and economy due to increased sea level rise.

A second study by researchers at Florida Atlantic University recommends that the state of Florida adopt a series of policy programs aimed at adapting to these large coastal and other impacts as a result of climate change. Key findings of the FAU report were included just this week by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's Climate and Energy Action Team when it adopted the "Adaptation" section of its final report.

"The impacts of climate change on Florida's coasts and on our economy will be substantial, persistent and long-term, even under our conservative estimates," said Julie Harrington, director of the Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis at FSU. "Should, as many models predict, sea level rise, and hurricane strength and other factors become more extreme, much greater economic impacts will occur along many parts of Florida's coast in this century."

The second new study, by researchers at FAU, focused on state adaptation policies needed as Florida faces the impacts of climate change.

"The goal of our study is to help the state of Florida adapt, in the most effective way possible, to climate change impacts that are now inevitable," said Jim Murley, director of Florida Atlantic University's Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions and leader of the study. "These approaches must be comprehensive and strategic, not piecemeal and episodic. Governor Crist and other leaders have rightly identified adapting to climate change as one of the state's greatest challenges -- we look forward to working with the state to protect our people, natural splendor, and economic livelihood. There is real work to be done."

This research was supported by a grant from the National Commission on Energy Policy, a project of the Bipartisan Policy Center.

About the FSU study

This study uses current estimates of sea level rise from Florida State University's Beaches and Shores Resource Center and 2001 estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to evaluate the effect of sea level rise on the six coastal counties. The results show projected trends in storm-surge flood return periods associated with hurricanes, damage costs associated with flooding from major storm events, and the value and area of land at risk.

Under the FSU study's estimates for sea level in Dade County, the value of land at risk totals $6.7 billion in 2080 (in 2005 dollars). (By comparison, using International Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates, the value of land at risk in Dade County ranges from $1 billion to $12.3 billion in 2080). The study also calculated the effect of storm surge and sea level rise on future damage costs, finding that if a storm like Hurricane Wilma from 2005 occurred in 2080, the cost to Dade alone would be from 12 percent to 31 percent higher (in 2005 constant dollars). While these findings do not account for adaptive strategies or potential future increases in property values, they still provide valuable information about potential impacts and resources that are put at risk from sea level rise.

About the FAU study

Key findings of the report have been included by Gov. Crist's Climate and Energy Action Team as it adopted the "Adaptation" section of its final report this week in Tallahassee. Important findings from the FAU study call for major state environmental, growth management and public infrastructure decision-making processes to be adjusted so they are responsive to future climate change impacts.

"FAU will continue to research how Florida can be a leader in providing guidance to other states on how best to put in place workable solutions that will help communities adapt to future climate change impacts," Murley said.

"Storm events associated with certain levels of storm surge could increase in frequency in the future, due to sea level rise," Harrington said.

"As sea level rises, damage costs associated with extreme storm events increases significantly for the Florida counties examined in this study," she said.

WEATHER NOTE

My Personal Close Calls With Tornadoes
By Michelle Dyer
Special Corespondent to Robin Storm

What is the dream of a storm chaser? To get close to a large and dangerous tornado! Many attempts have been made to accomplish this goal, much of the time, the mighty twisters go unseen. Oh, but what if you've been close to a tornado without looking for it? I have done just that!

This month's article will be the focus of four rather compelling stories of mine. These personal accounts involve my close encounters with tornadoes. Each story is different and unique, but will contain common threads. Please come with me as we walk through these personal experiences together.



My First Ever Tornado Warning

This first encounter took place when I was four years old. Before I go on, I must state that things in this memory are a bit sketchy because of my young age, but I remember just enough to tell the story. In spite of that, I hope you will enjoy reading about it.

The first thing I remember is being placed inside of what looked like a utility room. This small enclosure was cluttered with furniture, tools and other things that I can't currently recall. There was a small window for which I could somewhat see out of, however, it was way too high, so I couldn't climb up onto anything to completely watch the weather that was unfolding at that time. If I had been able to see everything at that point, I might not have been so unsure of what really took place that particular day.

After my Mom placed me in this small and cluttered room, she left, closing the door slightly behind her. I asked her if she'd be back, and she told me she would return. Unfortunately, this did not happen.

While waiting in this small room, I could hear the radio playing. The announcer came on and mentioned about a Tornado Warning. My Mom, by this point, was getting ready for work as well as listening to the radio. She wanted to hear what was going on with the weather, but I recall wishing that she'd come to the room I was in so she could be safe.

Even as I was being placed in this room, I knew about this Tornado Warning.You might be wondering then, did I know what a Tornado Warning meant? Well, at that age, I knew that such a circumstance meant that a tornado was coming, and that one needed to find a safe place to go. I also knew, even at that age, that tornadoes killed or injured folks that refused to seek
protection.

While waiting in this small room, I watched as the darkening sky cast a reflection on everything around me. The more the sky darkened, the more scared I became. As a result of this fear that I felt, I some how thought to move behind some of the furniture in the room. I stood behind a glass table and trembled with great fear as the storm moved on passed.

When the sky got brighter, I then felt like things were safe. My Mom then came to tell me that the Tornado Warning was over, and that I could leave the room in question. What a relief! The tornado didn't hurt us! I hoped that it didn't hurt anyone else either.

Now, I don't really know if a tornado took place that day or not. I'm not even sure of the date or time. Heck, I don't even know what direction the storm moved in, or if the tornado ever touched the ground. All I can say is, that I knew what to do, which is amazing for being a small child living in Northern Virginia at the time.

My Experience With A Mysterious Pea Green Sky

This particular experience was preceded by what was a calm, but cloudy afternoon. I had been sitting out on the front porch with my Grandparents while watching the sun take on a milky look. Then, as the sun completely disappeared behind a thickening cloudbank, we all decided to head in doors.

The next thing I remember, my Grandparents had left for the store for groceries. While they were gone, I hung out in the living room area and played with my toys, for I was only 4 or 5 years old at the time. As a matter of fact, I loved placing my babies into my little brother's baby swing. This way, I could be like my Mom who had just given birth to my brother.

Well, as I continued playing with the baby swing, I heard this strange noise fill the room. I turned my head to the right of me, and saw the sky turn the strangest shade of green. Along with this, I watched as heavy rain poured in like a waterfall through the open window. Wind blew the rain in through the open window horizontally, and I could not see the neighbors that were situated at the bottom of a hill behind our house.

My Dad noticed what was happening, and ran like mad from the kitchen to the living room to close the window. The rain was still pouring so hard, it took on a silver like look. Even the sky got hard to see at points!

This strange shade of green looked like someone had blended grayish-blue with a creamy yellow. When you blend those two colors together, you can get a putrid pea grayish-green shade. I even recall seeing dark green swirls within the clouds. As I looked more toward the horizon, these green swirls seem to gather up into a bulge that was darker than any other part of the
sky.

As the storm moved on, I could see more white clouds starting to fill the sky. First these white clouds moved in from the west, replacing the green clouds as the storm moved to the east. Then these white clouds seemed to make the greener clouds look lighter. The strangest thing I must point out though is how weird the edge of the green clouds looked while taking on a razor sharp straight edge appearance. This split look had made it impossible for the green and white clouds to mix, which seemed to reveal an apparent dry line effect.

I happened to get a good look at this sky formation because I was standing out in the rain, holding the door open for my Grandparents after they arrived home from shopping. They had arms full of groceries which needed to be brought inside rather quickly. This was due to the fact that large raindrops continued to fall.

So, you might be asking, was there a tornado in that storm? The answer is, I don't really know for sure. When I've told this story to friends of mine over the years, they seem to think that a tornado hit close by to me. I can not confirm or deny this claim. All I know is what I saw, felt and experienced.

The Tornado That Didn't Take Place

Now we will jump ahead to another strange close encounter I had with a tornado. Back in the late summer of 1985, we experienced the storm of storms. This event would break a six week heat wave that crippled the eastern United States with high temperatures and severe drought.

The date was Tuesday, September 9, 1985. I had come home from school like any other day. The only difference was, after I arrived home, the weather began to change.

I could sense that something was wrong, like the feeling of pending danger. We new that a storm was coming, but we were unable to follow it's progress after losing our cable connection. There's nothing quite like feeling helpless in a situation like that, especially since I could sense the approach of a tornado.

A few minutes later, I looked up at the sky and saw something that frightened me greatly! The leading cloud edge of this approaching storm took on a bulging appearance. These bulges had shown as this grayish emerald green color. I was sure then that a tornado was bound to happen.

As the storm moved closer, the emerald green clouds gave way to grayish ones. Once this occurred, the entire sky filled up with constant flashes of blue lightning. The weird thing was that this lightning had not been accompanied by thunder. I had read somewhere that lightning without thunder often meant that a tornado was present.

Along with the eerie blue lightning came a huge wall of rain. This rain was so heavy that I could not see the neighbor's behind our house. This rainfall took on the same appearance as the pea green sky storm I experienced as a youngster. Unlike that storm with the pea green sky though, I don't recall any wind blowing. Regardless of this fact, I'm sure a tornado hit somewhere close to us.

Well, after the storm was over, we turned on the news to find out what had happened. To my utter surprise, we heard that no tornado had taken place. According to the National Weather Service, the damage done was caused by straight line winds. This particular damage area was about a mile from where I lived at that time.

In spite of this NWS ruling, I will always wonder if a tornado happened in that storm. I say this because of the heavy rainfall and the silent blue lightning. My theory is that a tornado started to form, and then when it got close to us, began to fall apart. This would have still left behind the microburst that created the damage in question.

Here's The Closest Encounter Yet!

Please allow me to now share with you about my closest tornado encounter to date! This particular experience became my piece of what ended up being one of Central Florida's deadliest tornado outbreaks thus far. Out of these four encounters, this one scared me the most.

It was February 22, 1998, and we were expected to see some kind of severe weather that day. At first, the weather was expected to arrive by mid afternoon. However, the cold front expected to bring these storms to our area had stalled out over North Florida, causing the storms to build from the heating of the day.

At first, the Storm Prediction Center had placed us under one tornado watch, which yielded no real severe weather. By early evening, we were beginning to think that these storms were not ever going to arrive. Unfortunately, by 9 p.m. that Sunday evening, we were back under another tornado watch. This concerned us, because this line of severe storms was taking on more of a bow echo appearance as the day progressed.

By 11:00 p.m., we were beginning to see the squall line move in closer to our location. As it did, tornado warnings started to be issued throughout Central Florida. First, we started following tornadoes coming up from the Kissemmee area, moving into Orange County. From there, we listened as the weather service kept issuing tornado warnings for Seminole and Volusia Counties.

When the squall line approached Seminole County, we became rather nervous. This is because Sanford/Lake Mary, the area my family and I live in, was the next target for these tornadoes. The radio announcer had stated that a tornado had touched down on Lake Mary BLVD., which is where my neighborhood is located.

My house does not have a basement, so my brother and I sat huddled in my bedroom closet Before we knew it, thunder was rumbling to our north and west. This created within us a great deal of fear for which we could not shake. What would we do if a tornado actually hit? How would we really handle the situation?

By the time we began to see this line of storms, it was well past midnight. I think it was closer to 1 a.m. or something. I wasn't really sure at that point. All I knew was that things turned real weird, really fast.

Like I stated earlier, we started out hearing thunder off in the distance. Then, as the storm got closer, the sound of the rain and thunder disappeared. As the thunder faded away, it was replaced with an eerie silence. Following the silence was this strange swishing and tearing sound that was accompanied by a hissing noise.

This hissing sound wasn't around long, but the swishing and tearing noise lingered. My brother could see flashes of silent lightning embedded within this storm, creating a wall of blue-green light that was constantly flashing. We seemed to be surrounded as the massive element continued to hang overhead.

While this ordeal was occurring, I began to notice that the room around us grew silent. I could no longer hear the television set coming from the living room, and the bedroom seemed to be unusually still. It was not a peaceful stillness, it felt more like being inside of a vacuum tube. It just seemed as if everything stopped, and that the world had dropped us off somewhere in the twi-light zone.

At this point, my brother and I began to shake and tremble. The only thing I knew to do was to pray. So, I grabbed my brother's hands and did just that! After all, we were thinking the worst at that point. What else could we do!

Before we knew it, the swishing sound was replaced with the rain and thunder. We rejoiced over the fact that the strangeness was behind us. All we could do at that point was to climb out of the closet and take a deep breath.

Once the storm left our location, it went to a neighborhood to our east. Those folks weren't so fortunate because some lost their lives when the tornado hit them. It was weird because once the storm left the area, the weather became so nice, that you wouldn't have known that a tornado was even there!

After everything was over, we spent all night listening to the news. I was so traumatized that I couldn't sleep. I couldn't believe what had happened and that I had survived it. What an unbelievable night for us all!

The next day, my parents went outside to assess what the tornado had done. Even though we did not sustain any damage, some strange things did occur. The tree out in front of our home had been stripped of all it's leaves. The top of the tree had been twisted around, as if someone had taken it and turned it around in a not. Twigs were left standing upright, embedded into the ground. If that wasn't all from a tornado, then what was it?

This particular tornado outbreak produced seven tornadoes. There were fourty-two persons that lost their lives that night, making that outbreak one of the deadliest in Central Florida history. A lack of Weather radios, along with the late hour, were the main culprits to why so many deaths occurred that night. From then on, there's been a campaign to encourage Central Floridians to use their NOAA radios, especially if severe weather is expected in the middle of the night.

I, to this day, am grateful to be alive, but feel guilty for having prayed that we'd be spared. For if I had not prayed, the souls to our east may not have died that night. I know that sounds ridiculous, but that's how I feel!

Michelle Dyer is a Special Corespondent to Robin Storm and is a blind weather reporter.


Portable Imaging System Will Help Maximize Natural Disaster Response

Researchers at the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) have developed a low-cost, high-resolution imaging system that can be attached to a helicopter to create a complete and detailed picture of an area devastated by a hurricane or other natural disaster. The resulting visual information can be used to estimate the number of storm refugees and assess the need for health and humanitarian services.

Aid organizations currently don’t have a quick and accurate way to determine how many people need assistance. Satellites can collect images of areas affected by a natural disaster, but there are dissemination restrictions and cloud cover can prevent collection of images.

“Without a real-time map, it’s very hard to do population estimates and demographic estimates to figure out where people are, how they’re moving, how they’re spaced out and even how many people you have on the ground,” said Benjamin Sklaver, a project officer from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) International Emergency and Refugee Health Branch. “This technology does not exist currently, so GTRI’s imaging system is really an innovative project.”

The imaging system was developed with funding from the CDC, and agency officials would like to begin using this device as soon as possible. After responding to the recent devastation caused by Hurricanes Hanna and Ike, the CDC asked GTRI to accelerate delivery of the imaging device for use during the 2008 hurricane season.

“We plan to package the system for use on Coast Guard UH-60J Black Hawk helicopters, which were among the first to fly over Haiti following Hanna’s devastation,” said David Price, a GTRI senior research technologist.

The imaging system – designed by Price and senior research engineer Gary Gray – is called the “Mini ModPOD,” which stands for “Miniature Modular Photographic Observation Device.” It consists of an off-the-shelf Canon Digital Rebel XTi digital camera, a global positioning system receiver, a small circuit board that uploads mission parameters, and an inertial measurement unit that measures the aircraft’s rate of acceleration and changes in rotational attributes, including pitch, roll and yaw. The images collected from the system can be stitched together to create a complete picture of the affected area.

The research team has tested the device on several flights, selecting areas with large populations of people likely to be outdoors.

“During the first test flight, we wanted to test the clarity and resolution of the images collected during the run, and we were very pleased,” said Price. “We could see tennis balls on the ground and people reading books at outdoor tables. This was sufficient detail to allow accurate counting the number of people in an area.”

After the first flight, the researchers reduced the weight of the device and developed a more accurate geo-referencing capability, which allowed the physical location of the scenes shown in each photograph to be determined with precision. With the modifications made, the researchers went for a second flight test in July.

The research group selected a rectangular zone of interest and loaded the latitude and longitude coordinates of the zone into the system from a USB drive. As soon as the helicopter flew into the zone, the camera began snapping pictures. The electronics were set to measure the speed of the aircraft so that each photo overlapped 60 percent of the preceding photo, making it easier to stitch together the photos to create a complete picture. The pilot made two passes, at altitudes of 500 and 1,000 feet above ground level.

“This test flight was successful in confirming the Mini ModPOD’s ability to activate the camera within the zone of interest. The resulting photos were extremely sharp and clear – they were free of any vibration or motion effects,” added Price.

The photos were successfully matched to the flight data, which enabled the CDC to adjust them for geospatial reference. However, due to a software glitch, they were not overlapped as planned. The researchers made a small adjustment to the software and completed a third a third test flight in August.

“This flight resulted in images that were 60 percent overlapped, enabling CDC engineers to build a high-resolution mosaic image,” noted Price. “Individuals on the ground were easily distinguishable as people separate from other objects.”

The imaging system will also be available to the CDC and other agencies, such as the American Red Cross, to count people in refugee camps in order to plan for health and humanitarian services.

The research described in this article was supported by cooperative agreement #U38 EH000363 from the CDC. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the CDC.

MARITIME NOTE

Maritime groups: Icebreakers needed on Great Lakes

MILWAUKEE -- Several maritime groups say shipping on the Great Lakes could be disrupted this winter because of a shortage of U.S. Coast Guard icebreakers.

Lake Michigan covers 22,300 square miles, with more than 1,640 miles of shore in Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana.In Wisconsin, there's only one Coast Guard icebreaker to help vessels on the lake.Port of Green Bay director Dean Haen says mechanical problems have taken that ship out of service, and there have been times when it was reassigned elsewhere. That leaves the Green Bay port and others in Wisconsin without any icebreaker.Shipping industry representatives say two more icebreakers are needed _ one on Lake Michigan and one assigned to Duluth, Minn., for service on Lake Superior


RS

Cloud Radar: Predicting The Weather More Accurately

Cloud Radar: Predicting The Weather More Accurately

ScienceDaily (Oct. 1, 2008) — The weather. It’s the one topic of conversation that unites Britain – umbrella or sun cream? Now scientists at the Science and Technology Facilities Council have developed a system that measures the individual layers of cloud above us which will make answering the all-important weather questions much easier in future.

The Cloud Radar will not only allow forecasters to predict the weather more precisely, the information gathered will also enable aircraft pilots to judge more accurately whether it is safe to take off and land in diverse weather conditions, offering a powerful safety capability for civil airports and military air bases.

Developed over 10 years by researchers and engineers at the STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, in collaboration with the Met Office, the Cloud Radar can take a complete and accurate profile of cloud or fog up to 5 miles overhead. Operating at 94 GHz, 50 times higher in frequency than most mobile phones, the radar measures the cloud base height, its thickness, density and internal structure as well as providing similar information on cloud layers at higher altitudes.

The earliest version of the cloud radar was built to demonstrate that a low power system operating at high frequency could compete with more common radar types. It was built from the spare components of a radar altimeter designed to operate on a satellite, so that it used small, low-power components in contrast to previous cloud radars that use expensive pulsed sources which consume many times more power and have limited lifetimes.

Brian Moyna, Senior Systems Engineer at STFC said: “In a nutshell, our Cloud Radar takes a slice of cloud and provides a complete and accurate vertical profile. Compared to conventional pulsed radar instruments, this radar is a low power, high sensitivity, portable instrument that uses all solid state components for lower cost and increased reliability.”

The Met Office has just purchased a Cloud Radar which is being trialled at sites around Britain. Additionally, a Cloud Radar has also been acquired by the University of Marburg in Germany.

The radar consists of a millimetre-wave frequency source that continuously emits a low power signal in the vertical direction that is frequency modulated. A signal is returned, mainly due to what is known as ‘back-scattering’ from water droplets and ice crystals in the atmosphere. This signal is picked up by a receiver and converted to a microwave signal, which is then digitised, analysed and a real-time image of the returned signal intensity versus altitude is displayed for the user.

The new Cloud Radar is the result of several hundred thousands of pounds of investment into the Space Science & Technology Department at STFC with proof of concept funding from CLIK, STFC’s wholly-owned technology exploitation company, along with the Met Office.

WEATHER NOTE

Global Warming Will Have Significant Economic Impacts On Florida Coasts, Reports State

ScienceDaily (Oct. 1, 2008) — Leading Florida-based scientific researchers released two new studies today, including a Florida State University report finding that climate change will cause significant impacts on Florida's coastlines and economy due to increased sea level rise.

A second study by researchers at Florida Atlantic University recommends that the state of Florida adopt a series of policy programs aimed at adapting to these large coastal and other impacts as a result of climate change. Key findings of the FAU report were included just this week by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's Climate and Energy Action Team when it adopted the "Adaptation" section of its final report.

"The impacts of climate change on Florida's coasts and on our economy will be substantial, persistent and long-term, even under our conservative estimates," said Julie Harrington, director of the Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis at FSU. "Should, as many models predict, sea level rise, and hurricane strength and other factors become more extreme, much greater economic impacts will occur along many parts of Florida's coast in this century."

The second new study, by researchers at FAU, focused on state adaptation policies needed as Florida faces the impacts of climate change.

"The goal of our study is to help the state of Florida adapt, in the most effective way possible, to climate change impacts that are now inevitable," said Jim Murley, director of Florida Atlantic University's Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions and leader of the study. "These approaches must be comprehensive and strategic, not piecemeal and episodic. Governor Crist and other leaders have rightly identified adapting to climate change as one of the state's greatest challenges -- we look forward to working with the state to protect our people, natural splendor, and economic livelihood. There is real work to be done."

This research was supported by a grant from the National Commission on Energy Policy, a project of the Bipartisan Policy Center.

About the FSU study

This study uses current estimates of sea level rise from Florida State University's Beaches and Shores Resource Center and 2001 estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to evaluate the effect of sea level rise on the six coastal counties. The results show projected trends in storm-surge flood return periods associated with hurricanes, damage costs associated with flooding from major storm events, and the value and area of land at risk.

Under the FSU study's estimates for sea level in Dade County, the value of land at risk totals $6.7 billion in 2080 (in 2005 dollars). (By comparison, using International Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates, the value of land at risk in Dade County ranges from $1 billion to $12.3 billion in 2080). The study also calculated the effect of storm surge and sea level rise on future damage costs, finding that if a storm like Hurricane Wilma from 2005 occurred in 2080, the cost to Dade alone would be from 12 percent to 31 percent higher (in 2005 constant dollars). While these findings do not account for adaptive strategies or potential future increases in property values, they still provide valuable information about potential impacts and resources that are put at risk from sea level rise.

About the FAU study

Key findings of the report have been included by Gov. Crist's Climate and Energy Action Team as it adopted the "Adaptation" section of its final report this week in Tallahassee. Important findings from the FAU study call for major state environmental, growth management and public infrastructure decision-making processes to be adjusted so they are responsive to future climate change impacts.

"FAU will continue to research how Florida can be a leader in providing guidance to other states on how best to put in place workable solutions that will help communities adapt to future climate change impacts," Murley said.

"Storm events associated with certain levels of storm surge could increase in frequency in the future, due to sea level rise," Harrington said.

"As sea level rises, damage costs associated with extreme storm events increases significantly for the Florida counties examined in this study," she said.

MARITIME NOTE

Navy Confirms Sunken Submarine Is Grunion

ScienceDaily (Oct. 4, 2008) — Commander, Submarine Forces Pacific Fleet (COMSUBPAC), Rear Adm. Douglas McAneny announced October 2 that a sunken vessel off the coast of the Aleutian Islands is in fact the World War II submarine USS Grunion (SS 216).

The submarine Grunion arrived at Pearl Harbor on June 20, 1942. The vessel completed pre-patrol training before departing on its first war patrol June 30. Grunion's commanding officer, Lt. Cmdr. Abele, was ordered to proceed to the Aleutian Islands and patrol westward from Attu on routes between the Aleutians and the Japanese Empire. On July 10, Grunion was reassigned to the area north of Kiska. Over the next 20 days, the submarine reported firing on an enemy destroyer, sinking three destroyer-type vessels, and attacking unidentified enemy ships near Kiska.

Grunion's last transmission was received on July 30, 1942. The submarine reported heavy antisubmarine activity at the entrance to Kiska, and that it had 10 torpedoes remaining forward. On the same day, Grunion was directed to return to Dutch Harbor Naval Operating Base. There was no contact or sighting of the submarine after July 30, and on August 16, Grunion was reported lost.

"I am honored to announce that, with records and information provided by the Abele family and assistance from the Naval Historical Center, USS Grunion has been located," said McAneny. "We are very grateful to the family of Grunion's Commanding Officer Lt. Cmdr. Mannert L. Abele for providing the underwater video footage and pictures that allowed us to make this determination. We also appreciate the efforts of the USS Cod Submarine Memorial for their assistance in this matter. We hope this announcement will help to give closure to the families of the 70 crewmen of Grunion."

Abele was posthumously awarded the Navy Cross for heroism. A destroyer, USS Mannert L. Abele (DD 733), was commissioned in his honor, and was later lost in action off Okinawa in 1945. Japanese anti-submarine attack data recorded no attack in the Aleutian area at the time of Grunion's disappearance, so the submarine's fate remained an unsolved mystery for more than 60 years.

After discovering information on the internet in 2002 that helped pinpoint USS Grunion's possible location, the sons of Grunion's commanding officer, Bruce, Brad, and John Abele, began working on a plan to find the submarine. In August 2006, a team of side scan sonar experts hired by the brothers located a target near Kiska almost a mile below the ocean's surface. A second expedition in August 2007 using a high definition camera on a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) yielded video footage and high resolution photos of the wreckage of a U.S. fleet submarine.

"This discovery has come about through a stream of seemingly improbable events; it's like we won the lottery 10 times in a row," said Bruce Abele, eldest son of Grunion's commanding officer. "It is so dramatic to see the underwater photo and be certain it was in fact Grunion; not only is this announcement important for the families of the crew members, it's also important for the Navy and the country."

The Abele brothers then contacted the USS Cod Submarine Memorial for assistance in identifying the wreckage. The vessel is lying at a depth of about 3,200 feet. Very cold water and lack of significant currents has preserved much of the wreckage.

Dr. John Fakan, director of the USS Cod Submarine Memorial, remarked about the importance of having an unmodified example in USS Cod, a fellow Gato-class submarine, in identifying the wreckage of USS Grunion.

"USS Grunion and USS Cod shared the same blueprints," he said. "It is very gratifying for me and my crew to help with the identification of the submarine."

With the information provided by the Abele family and the USS Cod Submarine Memorial, COMSUBPAC and the Naval Historical Center examined the evidence and historical records and determined that the submarine found at the reported position could only be USS Grunion.

"The synergy of our group working together with the Navy for the common cause has been a wonderful group effort," Bruce Abele said. "The teamwork combined with everyone's compassion and wisdom has resulted in our success."

According to Bruce's brother John Abele, those responsible for contributing to this discovery included historians and engineers from the United States, Australia, Israel and Japan. Of particular note was the involvement of Japanese naval architect Yutaka Iwasaki, who provided information critical to pinpointing the location of the submarine.

Bruce and John's brother, retired Lt. Brad Abele, who recently passed away, also played a significant role in the find. As his brother John explained, "Brad's experience as a Naval aviator helped a great deal by helping us to plot the strategy for the discovery."

Unfortunately, the cause of Grunion's sinking remains a mystery. No matter what the cause, the end result was the loss of all hands. As the Naval Historical Center noted, "no amount of analysis or speculation will change or alter the fact that families lost fathers, husbands, uncles and brothers… the Navy and the nation will always be grateful for their service and their sacrifice."

Former Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz once said, "When I assumed command of the Pacific Fleet on 31 December 1941 our submarines were already operating against the enemy, the only units of the Fleet that could come to grips with the Japanese for months to come. It was to the Submarine Force that I looked to carry the load until our great industrial activity could produce the weapons we so sorely needed to carry the war to the enemy. It is to the everlasting honor and glory of our submarine personnel that they never failed us in our days of great peril."

By the end of World War II, submarines had made more than 1,600 war patrols. Pacific Fleet submarines like Grunion accounted for more than half of all enemy shipping sunk during the war. The cost of this success was heavy: 52 U.S. Pacific Fleet submarines were lost, and more than 3,500 submariners remain on "eternal patrol."

A representative of the submarine force will speak on behalf of the U.S. Navy at a memorial service in Cleveland, Ohio, Oct. 11. The service, hosted by the USS Cod Memorial, will honor the 70 crewmembers killed when USS Grunion was sunk near the Aleutian Islands on or about July 30, 1942.

"To provide ourselves and the families this closure, it's icing on the cake," said John Abele. "The memorial service is a symbolic event; we've discovered family we didn't know we had. Not only is this an honor for all of us, it increases the feeling of community we've been able to achieve."

HAVE A SAFE AND GREAT WEEKEND!
RS

Proposal To Merge NOAA And US Geological Survey To Form An Earth Systems Science Agency

Proposal To Merge NOAA And US Geological Survey To Form An Earth Systems Science Agency

ScienceDaily (July 7, 2008) — In an article published in the journal Science, a group of former senior federal officials call for the establishment of an independent Earth Systems Science Agency (ESSA) to meet the unprecedented environmental and economic challenges facing the nation. They propose forming the new agency by merging the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

Charles Kennel, former Associate Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Director of Mission to Planet Earth, says, "Earth system science focuses on understanding current processes and predicting changes that will take place over the next hundred years. It merges earth, atmospheric, and ocean science into a panorama of the earth system as it is today and as it will be tomorrow. We need it to predict climate change and its impacts, and to help us mitigate and adapt to other changes that have the potential to affect our quality of life and economic well-being."

The article points to the many scientific advantages of linking the atmospheric and marine programs of NOAA with the terrestrial, freshwater, and biological programs of USGS. Former NOAA administrator D. James Baker and former USGS director Charles Groat, among the seven coauthors of the paper, see important synergies in linking the two agencies.

According to Baker, "Population pressure, development impact, and resource extraction affect land and sea alike. Just as the science of the Earth is seamless, so should the government responsibility be merged for these separate Earth agencies."

Groat points to the breadth of capabilities the agency would possess. "The USGS, in bringing not only its geologic, biologic, hydrologic and geospatial expertise to the understanding of natural systems, but also its research capabilities in energy, mineral, water, and biologic resources, gives the new organization a comprehensive perspective on both environmental and resource systems. If we effectively link these capabilities with those of NOAA, we will have a powerful research institution," he says.

The authors express concern that federal environmental research, development, and monitoring programs are not presently structured to address such major environmental problems as global climate change, declines in freshwater availability and quality, and loss of biodiversity.

According to Donald Kennedy, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration and past president of Stanford University, "It isn't often that we are offered a real opportunity to make government work better. But the modest, sensible reorganization proposed here brings a new science-rich focus on some of our biggest contemporary challenges."

Kennedy also stresses the importance of linking ESSA's activities with the tremendous talent in the nation's universities.

The authors recommend that no less than 25 percent of the new agency's budget be devoted to grants, contracts, and cooperative agreements with academic and nonprofit institutions.

ESSA's success will also hinge on the collaborative arrangements the agency makes with other federal departments and agencies. According to former presidential science adviser John H. Gibbons, "ESSA's effectiveness will depend upon the bridges it builds to other federal agencies, from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and National Science Foundation, to the Department of Energy and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency."

David Rejeski, who worked in both the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Council on Environmental Quality, emphasizes the importance of setting aside some of ESSA's budget to fund research and development with breakthrough potential. "The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has demonstrated the value of funding high-risk, high-reward research and development. ESSA should foster similar ventures in the environmental arena," Rejeski says.

The paper points to the direct link between research and development and economic growth. The work of NOAA and USGS already fuels a large, multi-billion dollar private sector enterprise.

Mark Schaefer, a former official at the Department of the Interior and the White House science office, adds that "the quality of life of future generations will be defined by the quality of the environment we hand down to them. Our nation's research and development enterprise must be better structured and directed if we are to have any chance of solving the tremendous environmental challenges of our time."

WEATHER NOTE

NWS Doppler Radar Detecting Cars

Atmospheric conditions were right early Tuesday morning across north central Illinois for the NWS doppler radar in Romeoville to be able to pick up on traffic on Interstate 55 and 57. The doppler radar typically measures the motions of rain and water droplets toward and away from the radar, just like how a police officer's radar can pick up on a car's speed. But when a low level inversion (a layer of warmer air up above the surface) develops, it can cause the beam to be re-directed toward the ground and pick up on dense objects like buildings or traffic on highways. In this instance, the radar was able to pick up on traffic across Livingston County along I-55 as well as Iroquois County along I-57.

The specs of higher returns are where the beam is being deflected back to the radar off of traffic. It may be hard to make out, but the green and blue specs along I-57 near Danforth show some in-bound velocities of 115 knots (~130mph)...hopefully this was just noise and not someone driving too fast!!! Click here for more information on how doppler radar works.

To view images :NWS Doppler Radar Detecting Cars

LANDSPOUT SIGHTED LOWELL, INDIANA!

On 12 August 2008 at around 6:50PM in Lowell, Indiana there was a confirmed funnel cloud sighted. However there was no meso effect or severe wx system on radar. The funnel lasted around 10 minutes, but never touched the ground. There was no danger. KLOT has recorded this funnel as a "landspout"! WGN 9 Meteorologist Tom Skilling sent these pictures to KLOT.





MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard investigates Midnight fire and sinking

Written by Jeff Walls

Thursday, July 03, 2008

MOUNT DESERT — The sinking of the fishing vessel Midnight off of Mount Desert Rock is under a routine investigation by the United States Coast Guard. David and Ryan Graves of Northeast Harbor abandoned the boat when it caught fire and began to sink about 20 miles offshore on June 17. The father and son escaped, but due to communication problems were not rescued from their life raft until roughly four hours after the boat went down. “We are doing an investigation but it is not a negative one by any means,” said Lt. Jason Smilie from Coast Guard Sector Northern New England on June 27. “It is more data collection to find out what actually happened and if everything in response happened the way it should have, if the lifesaving devices worked, like the life raft and things like that.” According to early information, hydraulic fluid had somehow made its way on to either the engine, transmission, or exhaust, and caught fire. Ryan Graves said in his cell phone call to fellow fisherman Chris Candage that the boat had lost steering just prior to the fire being noticed. “We do know that there was some hydraulic oil that was in the vessel that had leaked out that was noticed in the area,” said Lt. Smilie. “We are not hanging our hat on that as the cause, but something caused the vessel to burn.” “What they are looking into is putting everyone’s statements together and trying to figure out what the final outcome is,” Lt. Smilie said. “Hydraulic fluid and a hot engine, that would be an ignition source, but we don’t know for sure.” An emergency position indicating radio beacon (EPIRB) was required for this vessel according to Lt. Smilie, but they are not foolproof. “I believe there was an EPIRB on there. An EPIRB is one of those types of instruments where when it goes under water it floats free,” Lt. Smile said. “Water completes the contact and allows it to transmit. If there was a fire on board, then the fire could have gotten to it before the water did,” he said. “We don’t have any sort of automatic fire release that would jettison it or anything like that.” As to why they crew didn’t call for help on VHF radio or manually activate the EPRIB, Lt. Smilie said, “The fire happened quickly and I am quite sure they were thinking ‘lifesaving’ just like anyone else because they don’t want to perish in the vessel.” He said several things made the sinking different. “Visibility was definitely an issue that day,” Lt. Smilie said. “Communications were also a problem. The distress came out on a cell phone and the cell phone service, especially on the ocean, is spotty.” The Coast Guard is still trying to find the exact location of Midnight. “When the Coast Guard found them they noted that there was debris floating in the water,” said Lt. Smilie. “So that with the location of where they were found and the time frame they have a general area of where it is.”

RS