August 4th Tornadoes and Damaging Winds (Updated Information)

August 4th Tornadoes and Damaging Winds (Updated Information)

Updated August 15, 2008

A total of 5 tornadoes was confirmed by the National Weather Service as having occurred during the severe thunderstorm episode Monday evening, August 4th, across the area.

Griffith, IN, rated EF2, Bloomingdale, IL, rated EF1, Bolingbrook, IL, rated EF1, Orland Park, IL, rated EF0, Boswell, IN, rated EF0

The cluster of thunderstorms which moved across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana on this day can be described as a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This is a continuous line of thunderstorms spanning many miles, for several hours, affecting many locations. This meteorological phenomenon is not uncommon for northern Illinois and northwest Indiana for this time of year. The pattern is distinguished by upper level winds orienting themselves in a northwest flow pattern. This orientation allows waves of energy (upper level disturbances) to traverse the region. Combining this with warm, moist, unstable conditions can trigger thunderstorm development and lead to a storm complex similar to Monday's occurrence. As this pattern persists, multiple waves of energy move across the region, providing several rounds of MCS activity.

As noted above, the atmosphere was quite unstable. On Monday, persistent southerly winds allowed a stream of very warm and moist air to advect into the region. This flow pattern, combining with ample heating from clearing skies, allowed temperatures to climb to near 90 by afternoon. Humidities peaked with dew point temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. This environmental combination provided the needed energy for thunderstorms to burst onto the scene. This combined heat and humidity accounted for heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees, validating a heat advisory in effect until 800 PM Monday evening for areas just outside of the Chicago Metro area.

Around 600 PM that evening, an MCS moved into far northwest Illinois. Continuing into southern Winnebago county and western Ogle county, a portion of the storm began to bow. The signature at this point in the storm evolution is what provides the name Bow Echo. This type of thunderstorm complex is capable of producing widespread wind damage and possible tornadoes as it moves quickly over a certain location. This bowing structure is induced by mid-level winds (rear inflow jet) penetrating the surface. It is at this time that the storm begins to bow and wind damage is produced. What affects its magnitude and longevity is the strength of the low level wind shear. Wind shear is just a change in wind direction or speed with height. The low level wind shear, defined from the surface to 3 kilometers, was sufficient to balance out the bowing segment. This allowed the Bow Echo to cut a wide swath of damaging winds across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana.

Low level circulations that can accompany a Bow Echo can also lead to significant damage. These low level circulations are generally near the leading edge of the line of storms, but north of the bow apex. It is these low level circulations that can create brief spin ups, or non-supercell tornadoes. Although these tornadoes are generally brief and weak in nature, they can still create damage as high as EF2. The environmental shear as discussed earlier is what can be the impetus for tornadogenesis along the leading edge of this type of storm. The environmental shear creates a horizontal circulation similar to a pinwheel. This circulation, or vorticity, gets tilted into the vertical, and helps create these low level circulations.

The widespread severity of wind damage with this unusual event will mark Monday’s storm as an historical one. The Bow Echo that moved across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana produced winds to 94 MPH at one point, while creating widespread damage and at least three confirmed tornadoes.

National Weather Service storm survey teams immediately assessed the damage which occurred with this devastating MCS. This attempted to validate any tornadoes indicated by radar or by reports sent in via the spotter network. Any tornado confirmed by the NWS gets a strength rating based on the damage inflicted. This rating is based off of the Enhanced-Fujita scale. Included with the rating, are the length and width of the tornado's path. This information is used by the NWS for agency use, but is also used to progress the science. Storm surveys used in conjunction with case studies can be a valuable tool to provide knowledge and insight each occurrence. Doing this allows meteorologists to better understand storm scale features that can lead to another significant event similar to Monday's. The goal here is to provide a better service to the public and the meteorological community.

The Chicago Weather Forecast Office would like to extend great thanks for all who helped with this event. This includes trained spotters, emergency managers, the media, law enforcement, and amateur radio network.

WEATHER NOTE

From Extreme Weather

Tropical Storm Fay

Is it a hurricane or tropical storm? The National Hurricane Center's projected path of movement for Tropical Storm Fay included a fourth Florida landfall as it dumped "historic" amounts of rain on parts of Central Florida. Read how scientists track storms from space in Extreme Weather on sale now.

NEW NWS MARINE WEATHER PORTAL

Tropical Storm Fay expected to hit Fla. 3rd time
By BRIAN SKOLOFF, Associated Press Writer

Tropical Storm Fay hung offshore Thursday and poured more rain on Florida's central Atlantic coast after flooding hundreds of homes, trapping residents and leaving much of Florida a soggy mess.

Alligators, snakes and other wildlife were spotted in some flooded neighborhoods after high water drove the animals from their normal lairs.

Forecasters expected the storm to continue a zigzag course by hitting the state for a third time in a week, along with Georgia, but didn't think it would strengthen to a hurricane over the Atlantic.

The storm flooded hundreds of homes in Brevard and St. Lucie counties, some with up to 5 feet of water, forcing dozens of rescues. The Federal Emergency Management Agency was reviewing Gov. Charlie Crist's request for a federal emergency disaster declaration to defray rising debris and response costs.

"I want to stress that this storm is becoming a serious catastrophic flooding event," Crist said.

Water was still high Thursday in much of southern Brevard County and officials feared the northern sections would be inundated next.

Emergency management spokeswoman Kimberly Prosser said wildlife officers have received several calls about alligators and other animals spotted in flooded neighborhoods, but only two small alligators have been captured.

"In the past we've usually had flooding in pockets. I have not seen anything this widespread throughout the county," Prosser said.

About 10,200 homes and businesses in the county were without power early Thursday, and about 134 people spent the night in shelters, she said. The county is home to NASA's Kennedy Space Center, which has been closed to most workers and all visitors since Tuesday. The center reported no significant damage.

"We can't even get out of our house," said Billie Dayton of Port St. Lucie, as waters lapped at her porch. "We're just hoping that it doesn't rain anymore."

Fay could dump 30 inches of rain in some areas of Florida and the National Weather Service said nearly 25 inches had already fallen near Melbourne, just south of Cape Canaveral.

In Jacksonville, residents were told to expect the brunt of the storm later Thursday. With schools, government offices and many businesses closed, streets were quiet and traffic was light at what would normally be the start of rush hour.

John Place, at a local Wal-Mart, said he and his wife has been prepared for quite a while. "This is not a panic situation," he said. "If it was a Category 1, 2 or 3 (hurricane) making a direct hit on Jacksonville, you'd have something."

The southern half of the Georgia coast was under a tropical storm warning as the outer bands of Fay brought start-and-stop rains along the entire 100 miles of the state's coastline up to Savannah, which received more than an inch of rain Wednesday.

The National Weather Service said isolated flooding was possible in southern Georgia, where Fay was forecast to dump 3-6 inches of rain if it followed the predicted path south of the Georgia-Florida border through Friday.

The Georgia Emergency Management Agency said residents in the southern counties should stock up on enough food and water for three days. Isolated flooding and power outages were possible, said GEMA spokesman Ken Davis.

The storm was just off the Florida coast early Thursday but continued to dump heavy rain. At 8 a.m. EDT, the storm's center was essentially stalled, located about 20 miles east-southeast of Daytona Beach. It was expected to begin slowly moving toward the west-northwest later in the day, bringing heavy rains to northern Florida and southern Georgia.

Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph. The National Hurricane Center said some strengthening was possible while the center was still over water. But the storm was expected to weaken after moving back over land.

The erratic storm first struck Monday in the Florida Keys, then veered out to sea before traversing east across the state, briefly strengthening, then stalling. For much of Wednesday, the storm barely moved, dumping inches and inches of rain over coastal central Florida.

If Fay strikes Florida again as expected, it would be just the fourth storm in recorded history to hit the peninsula with tropical storm intensity three separate times. The most recent was Hurricane Donna in 1960, said Daniel Brown, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

No deaths have been reported in the state as a result of Fay, which formed over the weekend in the Atlantic and was blamed for 20 deaths in the Caribbean before hitting Florida's southwest coast.

MARITIME NOTE

Seaworthy or she-warty

By Gerry Geronimo

His office at the Romulo Law Office on the 30th floor of the Citibank Tower was no more than 20 paces from mine, but his alma mater beat me to him. I was still in the midst of conceiving a plan for him to hold an MCLE-accredited seminar on how to understand the legal maneuverings relating to Suspicion Lines’s Princess of the Stars now lying capsized near the shore of Sibuyan Islands when the UP College of Law was already signing him up for its public forum scheduled for Aug. 13.

Accordingly, with the lot of the non-medal athletes in the Beijing, I stood by the wayside Wednesday last week as UP Law got first crack at lawyer Eduardo Hernandez’s lecture on the legal liabilities for maritime disasters. But now that UP has claimed its prize and Hernandez’s views are in the public domain, I join in the cheering and the clapping for Philippine admiralty law’s Michael Phelps.

Hernandez gave his audience many eye-opening, is not conscience-shaking, insights. For example, in the Philippines, he points out, while bus drivers have gone to jail for the deaths in road accidents, not a single ship captain or shipowner has yet been convicted of the crime of multiple homicide thru reckless imprudence, despite the more than 6,000 deaths in maritime tragedies. But Hernandez was most effective when he explored how the legal concept that the ship’s seaworthiness is relative could organize the many facts and figures that had come out in the media on the Princess of the Stars and its ill-fated voyage.

Whether a ship is seaworthy or not, says Hernandez, is a question that can be answered in relation to the voyage contemplated. “Crossing the Atlantic calls for stronger equipment than sailing in a small lake. Sailing into a storm requires a higher degree of seaworthiness of the vessel.” Thus, it was held by the Supreme Court in Caltex vs. Sulpicio Lines, GR 131166, promulgated Sept. 30, 1999, that “for a vessel to be seaworthy, it must be adequately equipped for the voyage and manned with a sufficient number of competent officers and crew.” So also, citing Justice Brad Giles of New Zealand in his Shipping Law, Hernandez explains that to be seaworthy, the vessel must not only be an efficient instrument of transport in relation to the voyage, sufficiently provided with fuel and ballast, but also manned by an efficient crew.

In addition to being dependent on the interplay of structure, sea, and crew, seaworthiness is also relative as to time. The time when a ship is to be determined seaworthy, Hernandez points out in conformity with Sections 113 to 115 of the Marine Insurance Act, is at “the commencement of every voyage.”

Finally, the responsibility for so determining belongs to the shipowner himself. The reason is obvious: it is the carrier who is charged with the duty of extraordinary diligence. It is only reasonable that that duty be imposed while the ship is still at port and the owner and his people on shore are in a position to take remedial measures, including not permitting the ship to sail, should they find the ship not fit for the particular voyage to be made.

With these principles explained, Hernandez proceeded to ask some questions, some I heard from him for the first time, others already posed by members of the House of Representatives and of the Board of Marine Inquiry now officially looking into the tragedy. At the risk of over simplifying, the three component issues of seaworthiness are (a) the condition of the Princess of the Stars at the time it embarked on its journey to Cebu; (b) the current and foreseeable condition of the sea along the way; and (c) the capability of captain and crew to steer the ship under such conditions reasonably foreseen.

Prudently not pre-empting the current investigations, particularly of the Bureau of Marine Inquiry, whose report was reported to have been completed last week and was promised to be released to the waiting public soon, Hernandez did not give answers. But by using Hernandez’s enlightening conceptual framework, any reader of the daily broadsheets can easily come to his own judgment on whether on that fateful evening of June 20, the Princess of the Stars was fit to make the voyage she was unable to finish; the needed facts have all been made bare at the government hearings. In my view, here are some.

The Princess of the Stars was an old dame. She was admittedly built in Japan in 1984 and had seen better days as a ferry boat under the name “Ferry Lilac.” No longer considered by Japanese law fit to ply her trade in Japan, she was already junk when sold to Sulpicio Lines in late 2003. At 24 years when she made her final journey, pointed out Hernandez, the ship was no longer qualified, had a foreign-owned company applied under the bare boat charter law, to fly the Philippine flag to engage in foreign trade. Indeed, we impose a higher standard for ships flying the Philippine flag in their masts when in international commerce than for ships carrying poor Filipino passengers in their cabins in the coarse of local inter island trade.

Like some aging woman, the vessel underwent a bit of cosmetic lifting. She was modified in 2004 to raise her passengers capacity by 1,000. As a cargo vessel, she was a RO-RO, roll in and roll out. That explains why, like many mestizas of yesteryears still showing up in the society pages, she had a flat bottom that made her, according to Hernandez, “inherently unstable.” She was overweight, i.e. overloaded, too, when she left port for the last time, by at least 96 tons.

Nevertheless, the fat and flat Princess of the Stars boasted of an evaluation last year by the local unit of Bureau Veritas, said to be an internationally reputed classification society, as not having any major defect, with its hull and machineries in good order. But the classification was only a provisional one, the work of the local unit still needing to be confirmed by the mother’s unit in Singapore. The initial provisional certificate, which expired last February, had to be renewed because the Singapore office was too busy with other things. If a classification society cannot give prompt classifications needed to inform us promptly in a definitive way about the fitness of our ships, why is it allowed to offer its services here? That’s my question, not Hernandez’s.

It was this senior lady that set out for a rendezvous with juvenile typhoon “Frank” in the evening of June 20. Pagasa said that by 4 p.m. of that day, “Frank”, the huge dude, was already cavorting at 50 kms southeast of Catbalogan, packing maximum sustained winds of 140 kph in his belly and gustiness up to 170 kph. He was moving west northwest at the speed of 19 kph. Signal no.1 was up in Manila, where the Princess was priming herself; no. 2 in Romblon and Northern Cebu, an area known as the graveyard of many ships; and no. 3 in Biliran Island. Actually, in Cebu, where the Princess was to disgorge passengers and cargo, the Coast Guard suspended sea travel as early as 7 a.m.

The feisty lady nevertheless sailed out at around 8 in the evening, even as the bars of Metro Manila had dimmed their lights bereft of GROs, to meet up with “Frank” in an illicit tryst in the following morning. It was all over by noon of the 21st. “Frank” left Princess of the Stars, lying unladylike on the shores of Sibuyan, her bottom up for everyone to stare at in the afternoon sun.

In her deadly trip, she was manned by captain and crew duly licensed by Philippine authorities. I believe they were the best we’ve got. After all the better ones, said Hernandez, have gone aboard on foreign ships with better safety and higher pay. They were very senior; one of them, in charge of the engineering department, was in fact 81 years old. I pray to God that they are all still alive to tell their stories. Particularly the 81-year old. His would surely rival the Rime of the Ancient Mariner.

From Holland & Kinght

San Francisco – senior USCG officer charged with use of cocaine

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that a senior Coast Guard officer has been charged with wrongfully using cocaine and has been temporarily reassigned to a non-supervisory position. The charges are under investigation and the individual is presumed innocent until and unless proven guilty in a court of law. (8/20/08).

Alaska – Ocean Ranger access

The Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) issued the Ocean Ranger Access Status Report, which indicates that after some initial issues, Ocean Rangers on cruise ships operating in Alaska waters are provided sufficient access to all areas of the ships needed to perform their duties. (8/15/08).

Have a great weekend!
RS

Hurricane Tracking: Tracking Hurricanes from Your PC

Hurricane Tracking: Tracking Hurricanes from Your PC

Tracking hurricanes can be as simple as finding the right website. As this article is being written, a hurricane is bearing down on Florida. As is customary during hurricane season, especially when a tropical storm or hurricane develops and heads toward land, many people stay glued to their radios, televisions, phones, and personal computers (PCs) for up-to-the-minute updates and information. The problem with radios and televisions is that programming and commercial time get in the way of the information people seek for personal, safety, planning, or assuaging their curiosity. But on the right website, hurricane tracking becomes as simple as clicking a mouse.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts until the end of November. In that time, people from Texas to Florida and up the Atlantic Coast watch as tropical storms become hurricanes and head west. When they do, the curious, the worried, and the practical can turn on their laptop, PC, or cell phone (with computer uplink) and find out the latest information on the oncoming hurricane.

One of the best and most professional-looking sites on the web is MyFoxHurricane.com. Weather maps proliferate the home page -- 29 in all. There is also a live webcam of Tampa, Florida (the home of MyFoxHurricane.com). There are still maps and time-lapse maps as well as updates and news concerning hurricanes and severe weather.

If functional and practical is more your speed, then the National Weather Service website is the place to go. It offers various maps which are clickable and zoomable. Updates and news are also available.

Along the same lines as the NWS website is Weather.com. Weather.com, of course, is the sister site to cable television's Weather Channel.

AccuWeather.com is another site with professional-looking weather maps. But whereas MyFoxHurricane.com is focused on American weather, AccuWeather.com has a world flavor to it. Weaher maps and radar are clickable, allowing closer views.

WEATHER NOTE

LATEST ON FAY BY THE NHC

Latest available podcast:

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 22:09:50 GMT (right-click and save to download)

Tropical Storm Fay floods hundreds of Fla. homes
By BRIAN SKOLOFF

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. (AP) — Emergency crews launched airboats into submerged streets Wednesday to rescue central Florida residents trapped by rising floodwaters from a stalled Tropical Storm Fay, which soaked the state for a third consecutive day.

Meanwhile, Gov. Charlie Crist requested an emergency disaster declaration from the federal government to defray rising debris and response costs. Crist issued his own disaster order ahead of the advancing storm several days ago, when it seemed the Florida Keys would get the worst. Instead, Fay skipped almost harmlessly over the island chain, but stalled over the peninsula on a second swing through Florida. There, it has done the most damage.

On Wednesday, officials reported flooding in hundreds of homes in Brevard and St. Lucie counties, some by up to 5 feet of standing water. In three towns, rising waters backed up sewage systems. It wasn't immediately clear how many residents had been displaced or were stranded, but county officials reported making dozens of rescues.

"We can't even get out of our house," said Billie Dayton of Port St. Lucie, as waters lapped at her porch. "We're just hoping that it doesn't rain anymore."

The Florida National Guard mobilized about a dozen guardsmen and some high-water vehicles to assist with damage assessment and help with evacuations, said Jon Myatt, spokesman for the Florida Department of Military Affairs.

The storm could dump 30 inches of rain in some areas of Florida and the National Hurricane Center said up to 22 inches had already fallen near Melbourne, just south of Cape Canaveral on the state's central Atlantic coast.

Forecasters originally expected Fay to energize over the ocean and possibly become a hurricane before landing in Florida for the third time later this week. The erratic storm first struck Monday, then veered out to sea before traversing east across the state, briefly strengthening, then stalling. The storm barely moved for most of Wednesday, dumping inches and inches of rain over coastal central Florida.

"In some areas, it's waist-deep," said Erick Gill, a spokesman for St. Lucie County. "We've had reports of people having 3 to 5 feet of water in their home."

Tom Christopher, St. Lucie County emergency management coordinator, said between 85 and 140 people were rescued by boat or high-clearance vehicle by Wednesday afternoon. He said no more were stranded, though other families seemed to be stuck without a way to leave.

Steve Grenon, 40, was sitting in the bed of his truck in front of his house. He said he'd been holed up there for two days, unable to leave with water was up to six feet deep in the street in front of him. A dodge sedan was partly submerged in front of him.

"I had no idea what it looked like out there until today," Grenon said.

The storm was 30 miles north of Cape Canaveral at 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday. Its maximum sustained winds were back up to about 50 mph and it was expected to resume slowly moving north later Wednesday at about 2 mph.

Gill said hundreds of homes had been flooded, though a count was incomplete. Homes also were flooded in Brevard County, said Bob Lay, the county's emergency operations director. Floodwaters also had caused sewage to back up, affecting another 40,000 to 50,000 people in three towns.

Fay formed over the weekend in the Atlantic and was blamed for 20 deaths in the Caribbean before hitting Florida's southwest coast, where it first fell short of predictions it could be a Category 1 hurricane when it came ashore.

Though no one in Florida had been killed, some were close. Joe McMannis, 27, said he jumped into floodwaters to help three people in a submerged truck in Jensen Beach. McMannis said the driver accidentally drove into a retention pond, confusing it for a driveway.

"I didn't think it was going to be that deep," he said. "It pretty much came up to my ears and chin. I saw this little kid coming toward me so I grabbed him and swam him back to the shore line and went back for other two guys that were still stuck in there."

The rain was welcome in dry Florida and Georgia cropland, but could also hurt farmers' production. Forecasters predicted parts of northern Florida could get 10 to 15 inches of rain, while southern Georgia could receive 3 to 6 inches.

"They're probably areas of the state that found the rains very beneficial. There are other areas of the state getting 10-12 inches that have crops in the ground and are getting too much," said Terence McElroy, spokesman for the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

McElroy said the rain could pool around and damage citrus trees and flood pastures and hay fields, but said it was too soon to quantify the damage.

Before moving east, the storm flooded streets in Naples, downed trees and cut power to some 95,000 homes and businesses. Tornadoes spawned by the storm damaged 51 homes in Brevard County, southeast of Orlando, including nine homes that were totaled. In the Keys, officials estimated 25,000 tourists evacuated.

In the Jacksonville area north of the flooding, officials prepared shelters and cleared drainage areas in anticipation the storm would jut left and drench residents there later this week. Public schools canceled Wednesday and Thursday classes, and mobile home residents were encouraged to find sturdier shelter.

In southeast Georgia, Camden County public works crews cleaned storm drains and ditches in preparation for possible flooding. The Georgia Emergency Management Agency also began 24-hour operations to monitor the storm.

Associated Press Writer Russ Bynum reported from Savannah, Ga.; Kelli Kennedy, Matt Sedensky and Travis Reed reported from Miami; Christine Armario reported in Tampa, Tamara Lush reported in Punta Gorda, Bill Kaczor and Brendan Farrington reported from Tallahassee and Sarah Larimer from Orlando.

Weather service to advise of rip currents
Craig Davison
For The News-Dispatch
Wednesday, August 20, 2008

MICHIGAN CITY - Advisories for dangerous rip currents, which are posted at all public beaches along the Lake Michigan shore, have been sent out this year by the National Weather Service.

Rip currents are blamed for the deaths of two teens this summer, which led to criticism of how warnings about dangerous swimming conditions were posted.

Advisories are sent to emergency services and local news media as well as weather radio and the National Weather Service's Web site.

Tim Halbach, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Chicago, said that for Indiana's shores on Lake Michigan, meteorologists study northerly winds that have a better chance of producing rip currents.

"We've been planning this for a while," Halbach said. "Every year there is, unfortunately, people that drown due to rip currents out on the lake."

Davante D. Jackson, a 14-year-old Illinois boy, drowned July 13 off Kemil Beach in Porter County due to rip currents. Raphael Palomar, 13, had been swimming at Porter Beach when he went missing in early August, even though the beach where he was swimming was closed due to rip currents. His body was found three days later near Indiana Dunes State Park.

Before swimming in Lake Michigan, beach visitors should check the advisories, which urge extreme caution and that if anyone is caught in a rip current, to swim parallel to the beach until out of it.

Indiana Dunes State Park has had lifeguards on the lookout for rip currents for decades, said assistant property manager Doug Stukey. When staff members at the park find rip currents, they report it to the National Weather Service.

Stukey said the lifeguards are in charge of making the beaches safe for swimming and that swimmers stay away from danger.

"Anything that poses a safety hazard, that's part of their responsibilities," he said.

Michigan City had three beach closures in July due to rip currents, city recreation director Jeremy Kienitz said. Like at the Dunes, lifeguards survey beach conditions to look out for rip currents.

Kienitz said the advisories have worked out so far and have been accurate.

"It's been a pretty good tool so far," he said.

Weatherman warns of catastrophic climate change
Zurawski's book focuses on risks to Maritimes

KEVIN TOAL
Halifax News Net

Bedford resident Richard Zurawski is a well-known meteorologist, television and radio host, public speaker and documentary film maker. He's also an author who is preparing to launch his third book, The Maritime Book of Climate Change, published by Pottersfield Press.

Zurawski agreed to respond to a few questions about his latest book.

Q: Why do you prefer the term "climate change" as opposed to "global warming?"

A: Global warming is a very general and inaccurate term. All planets with an atmosphere have global warming: the atmosphere traps the heat and warms the planet above what it would otherwise be if it did not have an atmosphere. So in a sense, global warming is not the issue. Climate change is the issue that we have to deal with. As the world heats up, some places will actually cool, though most will warm (in the short term).

Q: Your book discusses the melting of the Greenland ice cap. How much will it affect us in the Maritimes?

A: In the past, when substantial amounts of fresh water have entered the North Atlantic, there have been massive downturns in the climate for decades and even centuries; 12,800 years ago is a good example. If the melt is a worst-case scenario and all the Greenland cap lets go, we will most certainly have a return to a mini ice age in the east of North America and northern Europe. And with the cost of heating ... colder winters are not an advantage!

Q: Can we expect more hurricanes, blizzards, and droughts in the Maritimes?

A: Yes ... all of the above. The end to stable, predictable weather is certainly in the cards. We have had a remarkably stable run this past couple of millennia and by stirring the weather pot, we are most assuredly going to end that.

Q: What can residents of HRM do to try and combat climate change?

A: Measure everything in terms of carbon footprint and cut down consumption; lowering CO2 emissions is not a 20-year goal, it is an immediate need; consumption is a Western problem and (over) population a Third World problem. Both have to be stopped if we are to lower CO2.

Drive slower and less - slower speeds reduce CO2 emissions. Car pool; no more cars using fossil fuels. Buy local - nothing from India and China. Insulate your home, turn down the thermostat. Take the bus, train, vacation in the Maritimes. Live closer to your shopping and work.

Don't allow misinformation to be presented without a rebuttal. Lobby, lobby, lobby, and educate yourselves.

Q: What could HRM be doing differently?

A: (Use) alternate energy for homes and power; bring back rail; more research into alternate energies (geothermal, wind, tide etc); smaller homes, fewer suburbs; new thinking into sustainable economic models.

Q: How about the provincial and federal governments?

A: Stop the hot air and jockeying for political points. This is 1939 and the environmental equivalent of fascism is on our doorstep.

MARITIME NOTE

Attempt to get toxic chemicals in 'Princess' to start Aug 29

The salvage operation of MV Princess of the Stars is expected to start on August 29 after the 21-day mobilization period requested by the salvor, Titan Salvage, to ship all their equipment in the country, a transportation official said.

"They asked for 21 days, so by August 29, we expect that they will conduct surveys on the condition of the containers. And after studying the status of the chemicals below, they will start retrieving the chemicals and the crude oil," according to Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) Undersecretary for Maritime Affairs Elena Bautista.

In an interview with dzMM Saturday, Bautista said Titan Salvage was only given 30 days to recover the containers.

MV Princess of the Stars, which was carrying more than 800 passengers and crew, sank off Sibuyan island, Romblon province in central Visayas last June 21 at the height of tropical storm Frank.

Earlier, Bautista said the foreign experts who made an assessment of the sunken ship have concluded that refloating the ship is not the best way to remove the oil and toxic and hazardous chemicals inside it.

She said the experts don’t want the vessel moved since dragging it near the shore might break the vessel or the containers with the toxic and hazardous materials.

Bautista said they have already identified the areas where the fuel is stored. The salvaging team will use a hose that will suck out the fuel. Another hose will bring in air or other substances that will push the oil out to the other end.

As to how best to retrieve the toxic and hazardous agrochemicals, Bautista said they will have to cut through the side of the vessel to penetrate the cargo.

Meanwhile, Bautista confirmed that DOTC will finally submit to Malacañang on Tuesday the Board of Marine Inquiry’s report on the sinking of MV Princess of the Stars.

Long wait remains

The families of around 500 missing passengers will have to wait at least one to two more months before they get what's left of the remains of their kin.

This is because the retrieval of bodies was not included in the contract Sulpicio Lines Inc. signed with Titan Salvage, Bautista said.

Only 312 bodies have been found as of July 23.

Bautista said the salvor is only responsible for retrieving Del Monte’s endosulfan cargo and Bayer’s chemicals from the sunken ferry.

"Sulpicio Lines already paid the down payment of $3.5 milion, while the $4.5 million balance is under a letter of credit. That’s how it goes in the industry. You have to pay first. They will only retrieve the shipments of Del Monte and Bayer and the ship’s crude oil," Bautista said, stressing that the retrieval of the bodies will be carried out by another company, the Philippine Technical Divers.

Bautista said Sulpicio Lines agreed with the $7.5 million cost of retrieval for the toxic chemicals plus the ship's crude oil. But the firm apparently could not afford to pay the salvor $21 million for recovering everything, including the remains of around 800 missing persons.

The US-based Titan Salvage is not responsible in retrieving other undetected chemicals inside MV Princess of the Stars, Bautista added.

She said the salvor will find it difficult to salvor to extract other chemicals. It may be easy to recover Del Monte's endosulfan and Bayer's crop science pesticides since these have been identified through their containers’ assigned numbers.

However, Bautista said that Titan Salvage agreed to bring on shore bodies they will see inside the ship during the salvage operation.

Daily monitoring for toxic leaks

Bautista assured that the government continuous to monitor the waters within the 5-kilometer radius from the ship wreck.

She said that the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resource and Bureau of Plant Industry’s Fertilizer and Pesticides Office take water and fish samples five times a day to monitor any toxic leaks from the ship.

Bautista toxic chemicals have not been detected in the water samples and in the marine life in the vicinity of the capsized ship.

In an interview with Bautista last July, she confirmed that other chemicals and hazardous materials that have reported to be in the capsized ferry are:

· 10 metric tons of Del Monte Philippines Inc.'s highly-toxic insecticide, endosulfan;

· Bayer CropScience's agrochemicals, Antracol WP70, Tamaron 600SL, Trap 70WP and Fuerza GR3;

· asphalt;

· paints;

· electric transformers.

Bautista said that a lot of materials in Sulpicio Lines' cargo manifesto were not declared in detail. For instance, freight forwarder Sea Quest just declared the contents of its container as "various goods."

Bautista said misdeclaration of cargo is widely practiced in the industry since not labeling a particular cargo "toxic" means three permits less from the government.

"It will be quicker for them to get things moving, and they pay less than what they are supposed to pay," she said.

RS

SURVIVING THE BIGGEST WAVE EVER

SURVIVING THE BIGGEST WAVE EVER

Ketchikan, Alaska - Alaska is a land of geological superlatives: Big mountains, vast spaces, huge earthquakes.

So it would stand to reason that an event that happened exactly 50 years ago on July 9th is also the largest of its kind ever recorded.

On July 9, 1958, the largest wave in modern history occurred in Lituya Bay, on the northern Southeast Alaska coast about halfway between Cape Spencer and Yakutat.

Initially, the wave - generated by a landslide that itself was generated by a massive earthquake that shook the region for more than a thousand miles up and down the coast - reached a height of more than 1,700 feet. It was still nearly 100 feet high when it reached the mouth of the bay seven miles later.

In its path were three small trolling boats taking advantage of the fact that Lituya Bay was the closest anchorage to the lucrative Fairweather fishing grounds offshore.

In fact, Lituya Bay is the only secure anchorage along more than 100 miles of Gulf of Alaska coast from just north of Cape Spencer to Yakutat. The entrance to Lituya Bay is extremely dangerous, and should only be attempted is short (10 to 20 minute) periods of slack water, according to the United States Coast Pilot book series.

Despite that challenge, the bay is often the refuge of choice when the weather gets bad along the coast.

Interestingly enough, the weather on July 9, 1958 was not the reason that three fishing vessels chose to anchor up in Lituya Bay.

According to one of the surviving fishermen, Howard Ulrich, it was a sunny day and the waters around the mouth of the bay were calm.

"Fishing had been poor on that memorable ninth day of July and I pulled my gear and headed the Edrie for Lituya Bay early in the evening," Ulrich told the Alaska Sportsman Magazine in an article for its October, 1958 issue. "all was smooth.it was a quiet and peaceful anchorage."

Two other boats joined the Edrie inside the bay, that night, the Badger and the Sunmore. But they chose an anchorage on the other side of the bay from the Edrie. When the wave came, two crews would survive and one crew would not.

A History of Big Waves

The unusual geology of Lituya Bay has lent itself to several large waves in the last 150 years.

The seven mile long, two mile wide bay has two large glaciers and several large mountains rising steeply from tidewater. It is only a few miles as the crow flies from tidewater to high mountains like Crillion (12,726 feet) and Fairweather (15,300 feet) making it a popular staging area for climbers. In fact, two groups of Canadian climbers narrowly missed being in the bay the night of July 9th. Had they been camped at tidewater as planned, the wave's death toll would have more than 20 rather than only two.

jpg Trees washed out and turned upslope by water at altitude of 1,720 feet." align="bottom" border="0" height="384" width="500"> Trees washed out and turned upslope by water at altitude of 1,720 feet. Small slides occurred on steep slope at right during the 1958 earthquake, but destruction of forest in middle and lower left part of view is due mainly to water. Lituya district, Alaska Gulf region, Alaska. Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. Plate 7-A in U.S. Geological Survey.
Photograph courtesy U.S. Geological Survey

The weather also plays a role in the bay as it gets a large amount of precipitation - mostly rainfall. Some of the inland areas along the coast between Lituya Bay and Yakutat have had more than 300 inches of rain according to the National Weather Service and the winter and spring of 1958 was a wet one throughout Southeast Alaska. The ground in Lituya Bay - which frequently gets up to 150 inches of rain a year - was oversaturated even though it was sunny that July.

The third factor was the massive earthquakes that frequently topped 6 and 7 on Richter Scale in the area.

A final factor was the deep water - up to 800 feet - near the head of the bay. When earthquakes or other events caused landslides, they would displace large amounts of water sending it rushing toward the narrow mouth of the bay and the open ocean.

Federal geologist Don Miller was the foremost expert on Lituya Bay in the 1950s and the early 1960s. In his 1960 report, "Giant Waves in Lituya Bay Alaska." he pointed out evidence of five "giant" waves created primarily by land or glacier slides between 1853 and 1958.

jpg Lituya Bay, 1954, trimlines of the 1936 giant waves and the 1853-54 giant wave" align="bottom" border="0" height="397" width="500"> Aerial view of Lituya Bay, 1954, trimlines of the 1936 giant waves and the 1853-54 giant wave. Lateral moraines and the end moraine in the right and left foreground record a recent advance of ice to the mouth of the bay. Mount Crillon altitude 12,726 feet is the highest peak on the skyline. Lituya district, Alaska Gulf region, Alaska. September 16, 1954. Plate 3-A in U.S. Geological Survey.
Photograph courtesy U.S. Geological Survey

The 1853-54 wave was estimated at 395 feet, the 1874 wave at 80 feet, the 1899 wave at 200 feet, the 1936 wave at 490 feet and the 1958 behemoth swept trees off a hillside at more than 1,720 feet.

In addition to those giant waves, the waters of Lituya Bay had also been the site of several other disasters involving both the native Tlingit tribes and groups of American, British and French explorers and adventurers from the 1780s into the Twentieth Century, according to Philip Fradkin in his 2001 book "Wildest Alaska: Journeys of Great Peril in Lituya Bay."

Most of these involved the deadly, narrow entrance that featured tide rips and waters running up to 13 knots in either direction. Most notable was a disaster that cost French explorer Jean-Francois La Perouse more than 20 of his sailors. Fradkin also noted that Tlingit oral tradition featured several stories of "giant" waves and mass drownings in the bay.

Three Boats In the Bay

There were two commonly used anchorages near the mouth of Lituya Bay on that July night in 1958. Ulrich and his eight-year-old son "Sonny" chose to anchor about half a mile in from the mouth on the south side of the bay in place called, appropriately enough "Anchorage Cove."

Two other trolling boats, the Sunmore (with Orville and Mickey Wagner on board) and the Badger (operated by Bill and Vivian Swanson) anchored up on the opposite side of the bay, just behind the nearly mile long spit that extended most of the way across the mouth of the bay. The opening itself was less than 300 yards across and most of that water was too shallow for boats to cross. Some fishermen estimate there may less than 50 feet of open water at times.

The Ulrichs had anchored up just after 8 pm, while the other two boats - running partners who both lived in Juneau - anchored up around 9 pm.

Around 8 pm, a plane took off from near Cenotaph Island (so named after the drowning of the 20 French sailors in 1786). On board were 10 Canadians who had just returned from the first Canadian ascent of Mount Fairweather.

jpg Stump of living spruce tree broken off by the giant wave at Harbor Point, mouth of Lituya Bay" align="bottom" border="0" height="426" width="500"> Stump of living spruce tree broken off by the giant wave at Harbor Point, mouth of Lituya Bay. Brim of hat is 12 inches in diameter. Lituya district, Alaska Gulf region, Alaska. Plate 5-B in U.S. Geological Survey.
Photograph courtesy U.S. Geological Survey

"The expedition was scheduled to leave the following day, but the pilot of their Royal Canadian Air Force amphibian arrived at 6 pm that night and told them to pack immediately," Fradkin wrote in "Wildest Alaska." "He was worried about the possibility of fog and wanted to get the climbers back to Juneau that night. The climbers cursed the pilot's nervousness. They missed dinner in a hurry to pack and departed at 9 pm. Another party of climbers was due that day by boat but they had been delayedHad the two groups proceeded as planned, there would have been a total of 20 climbers camped on the shoreline that night."

Fradkin noted that the Canadian climbers weren't the only living things making a fortuitous getaway from the bay.

"As the Canadian climbers flew away, so did the nervous kittiwakes (that nested on the cliffs of Cenotaph Island)," Fradkin wrote. "The gulls ascended like so much confetti blown upward. The high intensity alarm call of thousands of birds echoed through the still bay. They passed over the Badger and splattered the boat with droppings. Some crashed into the vessel's rigging and plummeted to the deck. The Swansons were frightened."

Up and down the coast as far as Yakutat and Hoonah observers would report similar odd behavior by shore birds and other animals. Then, at approximately 10:16 pm, it happened.

"Cursing Myself For Not Moving Sooner"

The quake was later determined to be 8.3 on the earthquake scale and was centered 45 miles south of Lituya in Cross Sound. It was felt strongly as far south as Seattle and as far north as Anchorage. At Yakutat, 80 miles to the north of Lituya, three people out berry picking died instantly when a small island they were on immediately dropped more than two dozen feet under the water. Later measurements determined that a nearby mountain had risen more than 50 feet at the same time.

Overall, the earth had moved some 21 feet horizontally and 3.5 feet vertically along most of the fault line. While most earthquakes last only a few seconds, the initial length of the quake was later estimated at more than two minutes by Don Miller.

Then Lituya Bay got hit with the other shoe.

Miller - who was in Glacier Bay at the time of quake and flew to Lituya the next day - determined that less than two minutes after the initial tremor, the side of an unnamed 5,616 foot peak on the east side of Gilbert Inlet (at the head of the bay) plunged into the bay. At least 2,000 feet of rock fell.

"The noise was deafening," Fradkin wrote. "The violent impact of forty million cubic yards of rock, ice and coarse soil weighing ninety million tonswas heard 50 miles to the north. Ulrich said it sounded like an explosion."

With the first jolt, Bill Swanson tumbled out of his bunk on the Badger. He later told the Alaska Sportsman that the he could see even the highest mountains shaking. Then he saw the Lituya Glacier appear to literally rise up into the air.

"I know you can't ordinarily see that glacier from where I was anchored," he was quoted in the October, 1958 issue. "People shake their head when I tell them I saw it that night. I can't help it if they don't believe mebut I know what I saw that night."

From his vantage point, he could also see the mountainside slide away and crash towards the water. From his viewpoint on the other side of the bay, Ulrich could see the wave rise up and devastate the forested hillside.

All three boat crews had been woken up by the earthquake. But while the captains of the Badger and Edrie were transfixed by the spectacle at the head of the bay, the Wagners on the Sunmore jumped to immediate action and got their boat headed out of the bay.

It proved to be a fatal decision. Swanson reported seeing the Sunmore just about to turn out into the entrance when it was caught by the wave and flung over Harbor Point across the opening from the end of the spit. All that was found later was an oil slick marking the spot where the boat went down in deep water.

Ulrich told Alaska Sportsman that he was "petrified" by the landslide and the wave and didn't begin to act until he saw the wave, then still some 300 feet high engulf Cenotaph Island some two miles away from his boat.

"I began to move then," he said. "And I moved fast, cursing myself for not moving sooner."

" I Think We've Had It. Goodbye"

He got a life jacket on his son and started the engine. He started to pull the anchor and found it unmovable.

"The wave (then estimated at more than 75 feet high) was almost upon us and we were fastened to the bottom with a heavy chain," Ulrich said. He surmised that the quake had caused the anchor to get tangled on the bottom. He let out all his extra chain, in hopes that it would be enough to allow the boat to ride up and over the wave. Then he turned the boat into the wave and held on.

Southeast Alaska Earthquake, July 10, 1958. Wave damage on the south shore of Lituya Bay, from Harbor Point to the spur southwest of Crillon Inlet. August 9, 1958. Photos mdj01247 through mdj01261 form a sequence of fifteen photographs.
Photograph courtesy U.S. Geological Survey

"As the Edrie began her almost perpendicular ascent to the crest of the wave, the chain snapped," Ulrich said, adding that he wanted to get a message out so his wife in Pelican would eventually find out her husband and son had died. "There seemed to be no hope for survivalI grabbed the handset of my radiophone and yelled into it: 'Mayday! Mayday! This is the Edrie in in Lituya Bay. All hell has broken loose in hereI think we've had it. Goodbye.' "

But the luck that had abandoned the Wagners was still on Ulrich's side. At the top of wave, he regained enough control of his boat to hold on and steer around the debris being carried by the wave. A few seconds later, the worst had passed.

He sent out another message saying he thought they'd made it through. Immediately, other boats outside Lituya began radioing back. But, Ulrich noted, the silence from the Badger and the Sunmore was ominous.

Just about the time that Bill Swanson saw the wave engulf the Sunmore as it tried to escape, the wave - estimated to be approximately 80 feet high - hit his boat and carried it over the La Chaussee Spit and dumped it stern first into the open ocean.

"We went way over the trees and I looked down on rocks as big as an ordinary house as we crossed the spit," Swanson told the Alaska Sportsman. "We were way up above them. It felt like we were in a tin can and somebody was shaking it."

After the crash landing, the boat immediately began to sink. They were surrounded by acres of wood debris - including a large tree that smashed through the pilot house and broke several of Swanson's ribs - but managed to get into eight foot skiff with only their underclothes on, according to Fradkin's book. At nearly midnight, they were found by the crew of the vessel Lumen which was picking its way through the miles of debris looking for signs of survivors in the pitch dark.

After surviving the giant Lituya wave, Ulrich continued to fish but then quit the business a year later. As recently as 2004, he was still reliving the events of July 9, 1958. He wrote a brief story that appeared in Esquire magazine about that night under the title "What it Feels Like to Survive a Tsunami."

The Swansons eventually got a replacement boat, but Vivian - whose hair reportedly turned gray overnight after the Lituya incident - refused to go fishing with Bill again, according to Fradkin.

On the night of May 26, 1962. Bill Swanson returned to Lituya Bay for the first time since the wave in 1958. Shortly after passing through the narrow entrance to the bay, he suffered a massive heart attack and died.

WEATHER NOTE

LATEST ON FAY

Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 19A

3 Day Forecast Track - Click to enlarge

Web makes it easy for stormchasers to track weather
ROBERT NOLIN

In ancient times, before the Internet ruled the world, folks needed pencil, straightedge and a rudimentary knowledge of latitude and longitude to track a storm like the wannabe tropical depression now knocking at the Caribbean's door.

No longer.

Now all an amateur storm chaser needs is a keyboard and mouse. In recent years, meteorological-based Web sites, including that of the U.S. government's own National Hurricane Center, have become sophisticated enough to drench even the most demanding weather buff with information.

"They've improved, they're faster, they have more information," said Scott Weiner, 41, who flicks on the computer when he hankers to follow a storm's progress. "The first place I go is the (South Florida) Sun Sentinel."

This newspaper's hurricane-related Web fixture, sunsentinel.com/hurricane, offers real-time storm tracking, a weather blog, satellite maps, storm histories and other features.

With an average of 38 million page views a month, the Weather Channel's Web site, weather.com, leads the pack in terms of popularity, according to Nielsen/NetRating. Users charting a storm don't want to wait for broadcast reports, site spokeswoman Melissa Medori said.

"I guess it's the usage pattern of 'I want it now. I don't want to have to wait for the next update,'" she said.

Rapid, frequent updates are indeed the draw for Weiner, as are fancy graphics and blogs. "I want to look at the maps, the projections," he said. "TV weather is useless."

If a storm is thrashing around the neighborhood, visits to weather Web sites spike.

"When there's any tropical storm or hurricane threatening land, especially U.S. soil, our traffic goes up approximately 50 percent," said Toby Skinner of The Weather Underground, the second-most popular site. "We talking such huge numbers we have to make plans to make sure our whole system doesn't break down."

Last month, when Hurricane Dolly barreled toward Texas, about 22 million visited wunderground.com in one day, Skinner said. "It's even more than we had with Katrina," he added, referring to the 2005 hurricane that wrecked New Orleans. "We're showing gradual increases year upon year."

Weather Web sites all use the same material from the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County, but they customize maps, computer model tracks and snazzy graphics to enthrall viewers. Weather.com tosses in raw storm videos, photos and pet pictures. Another site, skeetobiteweather.com, prides itself on a more businesslike presentation.

The hurricane center has jazzed up its own site Web site to make it more layperson-friendly, said spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "We're in the 21st Century, we've got high-resolution graphics, we've taken the text piece and basically made it graphical."

The result, he said, has drawn 4 million page clicks to the site so far this year - not bad for a government venue. "They're clearly seeking the information out and they're quite savvy," Feltgen said of the mouse-wielding public.

But he cautioned that big decisions, such as when to shutter up or evacuate, should be left to professionals, and not armchair prognosticators.

"We certainly would not encourage them to make their own interpretation of track forecasts and intensity forecasts," he said. "We've got a number of scientists here at the center and that's what they're trained to do."

Hurricanes and climate change: A sharper view

August 13, 2008

In a study published in the July 2008 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, Drs. David S. Nolan and Eric D. Rappin from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science describe a new method for evaluating the frequency of hurricane formation in present and future tropical climates. While current thinking about changes in hurricane frequency comes mostly from computer simulations of global climate, the computer models used for these studies can only represent the coarsest features of hurricanes, thus casting doubt in their predictions of hurricane activity.

The new approach by Nolan and Rappin, developed in collaboration with Dr. Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, uses computer models with much more accurate representation of the processes that lead to hurricane formation, much the same way a digital image with more pixels allows for a more detailed photographic image. The models are used to simulate the rate of hurricane development in tropical atmospheres with varying values of sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear (which is the extent to which wind speed and direction changes with height in the atmosphere). These two variables - ocean temperature and wind shear -- are considered to be the two most important factors in predicting hurricane activity, both in operational forecasting and in consideration of climate change.

MARITIME NOTE

Riverdance ferry - a sorry sight

These pictures by Gazette photographer Bill Johnson show the pitiful remains of the wrecked Riverdance ferry – seven months after it ran aground off the Cleveleys coast.

What began as a huge tourist attraction – the sight of the beached vessel has brought thousands of trippers to the seafront – now looks more like a rusted shed as demolition teams have reduced it to a sorry sight.

Both engines have been removed from the 6,000 tonne ship and carted off to a spares company in the North East of England.

More than 34,000 litres of oil had to be taken off the stricken cargo ferry and other potential marine pollutants have also been removed. It will not be long before the wreck – which has been photographed by visitors from across the world since it became beached in heavy seas on January 31 – is completely removed.

Demolition experts from Hancock's Contractors Ltd and PGC Demolition Ltd have been working over the last two months to dismantle the ship piece by piece.

But it is painstaking and difficult work – depending on the weather and tidal patterns.

Fred Caygill, from the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, said: "The vessel has been stripped down internally, it's only the shell that remains.

"Sections are being cut off and the pieces being transported for recycling.

"The teams are making good progress and have done meticulous work.

"There is not a lot left of the ship now. All the work has been done without any loss or damage to the local environment.

"The work still remains on schedule, but we cannot give an exact completion date because it depends on the tides and the weather.

"But we are expecting the work to be completed around the end of September to early October."


RS

Strong Start Increases NOAA’s Confidence for Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Strong Start Increases NOAA’s Confidence for Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

August 7, 2008

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

In the August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has increased the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season and has raised the total number of named storms and hurricanes that may form. Forecasters attribute this adjustment to atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic Basin that favor storm development - combined with the strong early season activity.

NOAA now projects an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season – up from 65 percent in May. The updated outlook includes a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms, of which seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These ranges encompass the entire season, which ends November 30, and include the five storms that have formed thus far.

In May, the outlook called for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Some of these conditions include reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean.”

Another indicator favoring an above-normal hurricane season is a very active July, the third most active since 1886. Even so, there is still a 10 percent chance of a near normal season and a five percent chance of a below normal season.

Hurricane Dolly on July 23, 2008.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s hurricane outlook is a general guide to the expected level of hurricane activity for the entire season. NOAA does not make seasonal landfall predictions since hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as a hurricane approaches.

Five named storms have formed already this season. Tropical Storm Arthur affected the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June. Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm (July 3-20) on record. Tropical Storm Cristobal skirted the North Carolina coastline. Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 23. And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast.

Atlantic water vapor animation.

Download as Quicktime [MP4] (Credit: NOAA)

“It is critical that everyone know the risk for your area, and have a plan to protect yourself, your family and your property, or to evacuate if requested by local emergency managers. Be prepared throughout the remainder of the hurricane season,” Bell said. “Even people who live inland should be prepared for severe weather and flooding from a tropical storm or a hurricane.”

The Atlantic hurricane season includes activity over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The peak months of the season are August through October.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

WEATHER NOTE

LATEST ON FAY!



National Hurricane Center Podcast (Experimental)

Tue, 19 Aug 2008 12:28:54 GMT (right-click and save to download)

NHC Audio Briefing Created Tue, 19 Aug 2008 12:28:54 GMT
Tue, Aug 19, 2008 7:28 AM

Experts boost forecasts for rest of hurricane season
by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Saturday August 16, 2008, 9:24 PM

There's hotter-than-normal water on the surface of the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Gulf of Mexico. The water's still a bit cooler than normal off the Pacific coast of South America.

Upper-level winds over the Atlantic are mostly blowing from the east. And lingering low-pressure systems at the water's surface in the tropical Atlantic are more frequent and with lower pressure than normal.

Add them together, and these conditions represent the perfect ingredients for a more-active-than-normal end to the hurricane season, say experts at both the National Weather Service and Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.

Hurricanes gain intensity and size from warmer water in the Atlantic, while the cooler La Nina water conditions in the Pacific reinforce wind conditions that help spin the thunderstorms fed by the low-pressure systems into hurricanes.

Colorado State meteorologists Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray last week updated their preseason hurricane activity estimate on the basis of those conditions, predicting 17 named storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and five becoming major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center updated its estimates last week on the basis of the same conclusions: 14 to 18 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, and three to six being major hurricanes.

Both cited this year's fast start -- the third-most-active July since 1886 -- as an indicator of what's to come.

There already have been six named storms, including Category 3 Hurricane Bertha -- the longest-lived July storm on record, at 17 days -- and Category 2 Dolly, which caused $1.5 billion in damage when it went ashore on the Mexico-Texas border.

But even though mid-August begins the period when the chance of hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf ramps up dramatically, "don't worry too much about these seasonal forecasts," said Steve Lyons, the Weather Channel's resident tropical weather expert.

"The only thing that really matters is how many hit the United States coastline and where, and nobody knows that so far in advance of actual landfall," Lyons said Thursday during a telephone interview.

Always uncertainty

An example is Hurricane Alicia in 1983, Lyons said, which hit Houston as a Category 3 storm in a relatively inactive season.

"That hurricane season had a total of only four named storms, but three hit the U.S., and one was a major hurricane in a major city," he said. "Other years are very active, and hardly any have hit the coastline."

People should focus instead on preparing themselves, he said, both being ready to move to safety in advance of a hurricane, and preparing their homes for hurricane damage.

"We're not ever going to be able to stop a hurricane," Lyons said. "Even if you know five days in advance that a storm will hit New Orleans, you may save lives -- assuming that people follow directions of emergency managers -- but you're still not going to be able to save their property."

Lyons noted that the Bush administration decided last week to ask Congress for more money to improve forecasting. But he said the federal government also should focus on preparing the nation's coastlines for the effects of hurricanes before they hit, whether it be adoption and enforcement of more stringent building codes in Florida and East Coast cities, or on levees and wetlands in areas like Louisiana.

"Nothing's going to stop the devastation of coastal communities until the fixes are made there, and that will take time and money, and it takes government to force people to do it," Lyons said.

"And that's the question that people should be asking the candidates (for president), in my opinion," he said. "What are you doing to fix it?"

The reason for Lyons' concern becomes clear during a Weather Channel special that premieres Monday at 8 p.m.

Imagining worst what-ifs

In "Storm Session: Hurricanes 2008," hosted by storm tracker Jim Cantore, Lyons and other Weather Channel forecasters outline their worst-case hurricane possibilities for the United States.

Lyons calls them "Armageddon tracks."

"I took a Category 4-5 hurricane angling across Miami and Fort Lauderdale and then taking a left hook, slowing and going over Tampa," he said. His storm then restrengthens into a Category 4 or 5 hurricane as it moves slowly west over the northern Gulf of Mexico, flooding parts of New Orleans and then slamming into Galveston, Texas, and Houston.

Such a storm would create multiple catastrophes, Lyons said. In Florida, the multibillion-dollar damage would bankrupt the insurance industry, requiring a massive bailout by the federal government that would dwarf the cost of Hurricane Katrina.

But the storm's path over the Gulf would be equally devastating, trashing offshore oil and gas production for months and then devastating onshore refineries in a Houston landfall that would leave that city in shambles too.

"It's a storm that would affect every state in the union if it happened," Lyons said.

MARITIME NOTE

U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Traverse City records busiest week of summers rescue season

Thursday, 14 August 2008

In a five-day period the Coast Guardsmen have logged more than 50 flight hours on 12 search and rescue cases resulting in four lives saved.

On Friday a single helicopter crew rescued three people in two separate cases: rescuing two overdue fishermen who were clinging to their capsized vessel near Alpena, Mich., and finding a missing kayaker in Torch Lake, Mich. On Wednesday helicopter crews airlifted and medically evacuated a 42-year-old male from the Burns Harbor, a 1,000-foot laker. The vessel was 60 miles east of Marquette, Mich., in Lake Superior.

During this period, the air station nearly doubled their weekly average flight time.

"In a typical five-day period, we would fly approximately 30 hours of training missions and routine patrols," said Capt. Stuart Merrill, commanding officer of Air Station Traverse City. "This week we almost doubled that time and it was solely dedicated to the search and rescue mission."

This five-day period to the helicopter crews from Marquette, Mich., to Sheboygan, Wisc., and as far south as Chicago and several other locations in between.

"I am tremendously proud of the dedicated efforts of our aviation crews," said Merrill. "During the past week, they have committed unbelievable time and energy protecting the safety of the mariners and beachgoers throughout the Great Lakes region."

"Our ethos of 'Safe Search and Rescue Response Readiness' is embodied in their actions each and every day and particularly during this demanding past week," he added.

Air Station Traverse City operates five HH-65C Dolphin helicopters and assists with search and rescue services throughout the Great Lakes Region encompassing more than 94,000 square miles of water and 10,900 miles of shoreline. Their area of responsibility encompasses five states, three Great Lakes, and assistance to Canada when requested.

RS

Tropical Storm Fay could be on way to South Florida, trackers say

Storm's direction could change over the next few days

BY KEN KAYE

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

August 16, 2008

Don't exhale just yet, South Florida.

Although newly minted Tropical Storm Fay appears headed for the state's west coast, the projected path — and its ultimate intensity — remain in question, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

As it is, the storm's forecast track puts the entire state in the cone of uncertainty and the system could pass close enough to this region to produce wind gusts of up to 70 mph and heavy rain Monday and Tuesday, forecasters said.

"We'll be on the right side of the system, so we could see some of the feeder bands," said meteorologist Barry Baxter of the National Weather Service in Miami.

On Friday evening, Fay was over the Dominican Republic about 750 miles southeast of Miami, moving west at 14 mph with sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Forecasters and emergency managers urged residents to remain alert over the weekend, saying the tropical system could take a surprise turn in this direction.

"There's a lot of uncertainty in the models," said Corey Walton, a hurricane center meteorologist. "South Florida residents should stay updated."

South Florida schools still were expecting Friday to start classes Monday. To check in Palm Beach County, parents can call 561-357-7500; in Broward, 754-321-0321.

No matter what Fay brings, emergency managers said now is a good time to ensure all hurricane preparations have been completed.

Chuck Lanza, Broward County emergency management director, urged residents to amass enough food and water to last 72 hours, fuel up vehicles and stock up on enough medications to last a week.

"It's just another reminder that we have the potential for hurricanes throughout the season," he said.

It is possible that Fay, the sixth named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, will intensify into a hurricane before it reaches Florida, forecasters said.

However, it was expected to plow over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba, which could weaken it. For now, the hurricane center predicts it will be a tropical storm when it approaches the Keys on Monday and Florida's southwest coast Tuesday.

Because the system threatened to produce up to 12 inches of rain along its path, government officials issued tropical storm watches and warnings throughout the northeastern Caribbean and the southern Bahamas.

Fay already has proved to be unpredictable. Forecasters as early as Wednesday thought it might grow into a tropical depression. Even though it moved into a favorable environment for development over the Atlantic, it remained a mushy blob of clouds and low pressure near the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico the past three days.

It didn't achieve a closed surface circulation until its center moved inland over the east coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday afternoon. Forecasters found the winds were strong enough to designate it a tropical storm, bypassing the customary first step of deeming it a tropical depression.

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

• NHC issuing advisories on TS FAY
• Podcast audio briefings regarding Fay will be issued periodically
• Access hurricane advisories on your mobile phone: www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile....(learn more)

Eastern Pacific

Atlantic

WEATHER NOTE

New weather alert device can help during hurricanes

TAMPA BAY, FL -- With hurricane season upon us, an innovative and reliable weather radio is on the market. If you lose contact with a family member during a storm, these two-way communication systems will allow you to stay in touch.

The latest technology combines two-way communication with NOAA weather alerts from the National Weather Service. An emergency alert siren transmits warnings while also allowing you to signal warnings to others. Plus an LED flashlight is attached in the event of power outages.

These emergency radios have a twenty mile range along with with hands-free operation and a mini-USB port for charging in the car or from your PC. Models are available from Motorola and other companies in many retail outlets.

MARITIME NOTE

Unmanned weather ship on Olympic duty

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Weather detection ship Meteorology 1

Weather detection ship Meteorology 1 was built by Shenyang Aerospace Xinguang Corporation. It is the first unmanned detection ship to be built in China. The ship is currently stationed in Qingdao, where it is providing weather forecasting services for the Olympic sailing competition.

Meteorology 1 was the result of collaboration between Shenyang Xinguang Corporation and China Astronomic Bureau’s Atmosphere Detection Technology Center. The system is composed of the boat itself and a land-based control system.

The ship is self-righting and can survive in heavy seas. It has a powerful engine that can propel it for several hundred kilometers, and the vessel can spend 20 days at sea without requiring maintenance. As well as weather detection, the ship can be used to detect accidents and environmental incidents at sea, as well as acting as a disaster warning system.

Meteorology 1 is just 6.5 meters long, and the whole ship is made of carbon fiber. It is crammed with high technology, such as intelligent navigation, radar, satellite positioning systems, photo processing and transmission.

Meteorology 1 can keep statistics on wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and marine surface temperature. The unmanned ship can also check visibility at sea, which is of particular significance during Olympic sailing bouts.

America and Israel have spent around 10 years researching unmanned ship technology, while China is just starting out. Shenyang Aerospace Xinguang Corporation started work on unmanned meteorology systems in 2003. The company says it has already solved many key technical issues regarding the navigation of unmanned vessels.

RS