Buoy weighing 1,500 pounds is deployed to study rivers, ocean

Buoy weighing 1,500 pounds is deployed to study rivers, ocean

Scientists want to study impact on and of St. Johns and Nassau rivers.

By DREW DIXON, Shorelines

MAYPORT - A new buoy designed to measure the impacts of the St. Johns and Nassau rivers on the Atlantic Ocean was deployed about five miles off the coast Friday.

The 1,500-pound buoy, with its cache of instrumentation, is part of a new initiative to measure how the rivers impact water just off North Florida's coast and how the ocean impacts the health of the waterways. The initiative is led by the University of North Florida and the Florida Coastal Ocean Observing System Consortium.

The project is entering new scientific territory, said Pat Welsh, executive director of UNF's Advanced Weather Information Systems Lab and local manager of the project.

"We don't know much about how the rivers impact the ocean," Welsh said. "We have very little data on that historically."

The buoy's instrumentation will track currents, winds and other influences. It doesn't have gear to measure pollutants, but Welsh said he hopes to add that. Eventually the data will be available on an Internet site.

The $200,000 buoy, funded by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, was deployed between the Nassau and St. Johns rivers.

The U.S. Coast Guard cutter Maria Bray took the buoy out to a 60-foot depth. The vessel is used to deploy and maintain navigational and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration buoys, said Chief Warrant Officer Richard Hutchinson. But this one is lighter and different.

"It is an unusual buoy because many buoys are bigger than that," Hutchinson said, noting the Maria Bray has carried a 12,000-pound navigational buoy on its deck.

Most buoys are usually moored to a huge block of concrete. UNF's buoy anchor is made of a set of three railroad car wheels.

The buoy deployed Friday is not part of the NOAA buoy network that measures wave data and weather influences, such as one 20 miles off St. Augustine's shore. But some of the data may eventually be linked to the NOAA system, Welsh said.

The UNF project is part of a larger network of buoys that the consortium, which is made up of 18 universities, private nautical companies and other organizations, has and will continue to deploy off Florida's coast. About 40 buoys are being deployed off Florida, said Jyotika Virmani, executive director of the consortium in St. Petersburg. Some have already been moored off Florida's west coast and in the Keys.

The new buoy off Mayport is only funded through the fall. Coordinators may have to retrieve it if there isn't additional funding, Welsh said.

But scientists expect it will be critical to the consortium's buoy network, Virmani said.

"It's the first in that area of Florida, so any information that comes out from that is going to be new information. It's very exciting," she said. "In the Nassau and St. Johns rivers area the river flows out and pushes in some nutrients which helps a red tide situation, which you had in your area last fall. Even if you can understand what the currents are doing, that will help even if it comes back into shore."

It's not clear what information the new buoy project will produce.

"It may take three or four years, but it may be used to predict those types of events, for example, where the nutrients are coming from to cause a bloom," Virmani said. "This is the beginning, so it's hard to see where that's going to end.

Drew Dixon can also be reached at (904) 249-4947, ext. 6313

WEATHER NOTE

Tornadoes, Floods, Wildfires and a New Hurricane Season!

After the March tornadoes, I posted a Top Ten List of extremely important things to do after your property is damaged in a disaster. In the next ten postings, I'm going to expand on each of the strategies in the Top Ten List.

Back in March, we here in the metro Atlanta area had an F4 tornado strike the downtown area of Atlanta. That tornado did about $300 million in damages. About a month later, another group of twisters hit between Atlanta and Macon, doing about the same amount of damage.

Now, we're seeing tornadoes all over the middle of the USA, and massive flooding has struck four or five states, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. And don't forget the wildfires charring Southern California.

But...cheer up! We have a long Hurricane Season that began June 1, and goes until the end of November!!

The following is an excerpt from my book, "Insurance Claim Secrets REVEALED!"

The first strategy in the Top Ten List is....SLOW DOWN.

How many times have you heard an insurance company’s radio or television commercial say how fast they settle claims? That really sounds good, doesn’t it? Who wouldn’t want their claim settled quickly?

But my long experience as an adjuster has been that hastily settled claims are settled far below what they are worth. It’s almost as if the policyholder or claimant becomes willing to give the insurance companies a big discount in return for the speed of getting a settlement check.

Don’t be one of those people who are motivated by a quick settlement check.

I’m not suggesting that you should drag your feet and be uncooperative in the process. You should be very cooperative...but on your own terms, not the insurance company’s terms. I’m saying that if you are in control of the claims process like you should be, it will not usually be speedy.

The process will move along in a businesslike manner, but you must not allow yourself to be rushed into a settlement. Even if the insurance company sends you a check before you’re ready to settle, you’re not required to cash it.

Let’s look at the first 24-48 hours after you have a loss. It really does not matter if your loss is small or large or a jumbo catastrophic disaster. It does not matter if your loss is a property loss…like a hurricane or flood or tornado or fire, or a casualty loss, like an automobile accident. There are some things that you must do to protect yourself, your family and your property. MORE >

MARITIME NOTE

Some of the deadliest maritime disasters in the Philippines

The Associated Press

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Some of the deadliest civilian maritime disasters in the Philippines:

_Dec. 20, 1987: In the world's worst peacetime shipping disaster, 4,340 people drown when the ferry Dona Paz collides with the tanker MT Victor in the Philippines.

_Oct. 1988: The Dona Marilyn ferry sinks in the central Philippines during a typhoon, killing 250.

_Dec. 1994: A freighter slams the ferry Cebu City in Manila Bay, drowning at least 34 and leaving more than 100 of about 600 passengers missing. Rescuers pluck about 450 people from the sea, many coated in the diesel oil disgorged as the ferry sank.

Dec. 1995: Dozens are killed when the overloaded MV Kimelody Cristy catches fire off Fortune Island, southwest of Manila.

_Feb. 1996: An overcrowded wooden ferry, ML Gretchen, capsizes close to shore of central Negros island, killing 54, including 31 children, and leaving 12 missing.

_Aug. 15, 1997: The King Rogers, a sightseeing boat, sinks after being battered by strong winds and big waves, killing four Hong Kong tourists and 12 Filipinos. About 75 others are reporting missing.

_Sept. 1998: The Princess of the Orient ferry tilts in storm-whipped waters near Batangas province south of Manila, leaving 70 dead and 80 others missing.

_Dec. 1999: An overloaded MV Asia South Korea ferry sinks in the central Philippines, killing at least 51 people, including several Nepalese students. More than 700 others are rescued.

_April 2000: The wooden-hulled Annahada ferry capsizes shortly after leaving southern Jolo Island, killing at least 87 people. Dozens of others are reported missing.

_April 2002: Wind-swept flames engulf a packed inter-island ferry in the central Philippines, killing at least 23 and sparking panic among its 290 passengers and crew, some still waking up at the end of a 12-hour overnight trip. More than 90 are injured and 13 reported missing.

_Feb. 2004: A bomb believed to have been planted by al-Qaida-linked Abu Sayyaf extremists explode aboard the Superferry 14 near Manila Bay, igniting an inferno that kills 116 people in Southeast Asia's second-worst terrorist attack.

_June 21, 2008: The MV Princess of the Stars, a 23,824-ton ferry, capsizes off central Sibuyan Island in a typhoon. Villagers find six bodies, while only four survivors are found in the initial hours of search efforts.

RS

When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!

When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!Lightning Safety Week: June 22-28, 2008

Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena— lightning. But don't be fooled, lightning strikes year round.

The goal of this Website is to safeguard U.S. residents from lightning.

In the United States, an average of 62 people are killed each year by lightning.

Already in 2008, 8 people have died due to lightning strikes. In 2007, 45 people were struck and killed by lighting in the U.S.; hundreds of others were injured. Of the victims who were killed by lightning:

• 98% were outside
• 89% were male
• 30% were males between the ages of 20-25
• 25% were standing under a tree
• 25% occurred on or near the water

The reported number of injuries is likely far lower than the actual total number because many people do not seek help or doctors do not record it as a lightning injury. People struck by lightning suffer from a variety of long-term, debilitating symptoms, including memory loss, attention deficits, sleep disorders, numbness, dizziness, stiffness in joints, irritability, fatigue, weakness, muscle spasms, depression, and an inability to sit for long.

Lightning is a serious danger. Through this site we hope you'll learn more about lightning risks and how to protect yourself, your loved ones and your belongings. As a start, get an overview of Lightning Safety or stop by our comprehensive page of handouts, brochures, links and more.

USPLN Lightning Data for the Continuental United States. Data is delayed 30 minutes and represents 2 hour period.

USPLN Lightning Data for CONUS, image, copyright 2008 WDT; data, copyright 2008 WSI Corporation. Used by permission from WSI Corporation. All rights reserved.

WEATHER NOTE

Menendez panel will look at U.S. role in global disasters

by The Associated Press

Tuesday June 17, 2008, 5:37 AM

A congressional subcommittee chaired by a New Jersey senator is taking up the politically sensitive question of how the United States can aid disaster victims if their governments reject foreign involvement.

The panel headed by Sen. Robert Menendez, (D-N.J.) will hear from foreign relations experts Tuesday as it weighs issues raised after last month's cyclone in Myanmar, the recent earthquake in China and other disasters.

Myanmar's ruling military junta severely restricted humanitarian aid after the storm there left tens of thousands dead and missing.

National Weather Service Finds Department is TsunamiReady™

June 17, 2008

The Orange County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday recognized the Department's Emergency Management Bureau, along with emergency managers from coastal cities in Orange County, for the achievement of completing the Natonal Weather Service StormReady and TsunamiReady programs. Orange County has become the nation's most populous county to earn the Weather Service honor.

To read the Board of Supervisors staff report on the issue click here.

To see the National Weather Service press release on the county's achievement click

Contact: Matt Ocana FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
801-524-5692 June 17, 2008

NOAA Recognizes Orange County, Calif., as TsunamiReady™ and StormReady®

Orange County, Calif., has completed NOAA’s National Weather Service StormReady® and TsunamiReady™ programs, better equipping the county to handle severe weather and tsunamis. The Orange County emergency management team fulfilled a rigorous set of warning and evacuation criteria, including the development of a formal hazardous weather plan.

“Orange County is vulnerable to tsunamis and severe weather due to its location on the coast,” said Jim Purpura, meteorologist-in-charge of the weather forecast office in San Diego. “As the second most populous county in the state of California, and the fifth most populous in the United States, the likelihood of the public encountering a tsunami or severe weather is greatly increased. Public awareness and preparedness are essential.”

Orange County now becomes not only the most populous county in the U.S. to achieve TsunamiReady recognition, but also the only county to have every coastal community both StormReady and TsunamiReady. Orange County cities that completed the TsunamiReady program are Dana Point, Huntington Beach, San Clemente, Newport Beach, Seal Beach, and Laguna Beach.

“Orange County was able to achieve this recognition because of the planning partnerships we have within our county along with state and federal agencies like the National Weather Service,” said Orange County emergency manager Donna Boston.

At a ceremony in Orange County today, Purpura will present a recognition letter and TsunamiReady™ and StormReady® road signs to county officials.

To be recognized as TsunamiReady™ and StormReady®, a community must:

• Establish a 24-hour warning point and emergency operations center;
• Have more than one way to receive tsunami and severe weather warnings and forecasts to alert the public;
• Create a system that monitors local weather conditions;
• Promote the importance of public readiness through community seminars; and
• Develop a formal hazardous weather plan, which includes training severe weather spotters and holding emergency exercises.

Resilience to disasters is everyone's responsibility. Educating yourself and your family on environmental hazards, maintaining a disaster supply kit, and having an emergency plan in place, are all proactive ways you can be better prepared.

The TsunamiReady™ and StormReady® programs are part of NOAA National Weather Service's working partnership with the International Association of Emergency Managers, the National Emergency Management Association, and the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The TsunamiReady™ and StormReady® recognitions expire in three years, after which the county will go through a renewal process.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

On the Web:
TsunamiReady™ program: http://www.tsunamiready.noaa.gov
StormReady® program: http://www.stormready.noaa.gov

StormReady® and TsunamiReady™ are registered trademarks of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sent from our friend Sam! Thanks Sam!

Week's Best: Twister Strikes, More

A huge tornado funnel cloud touches down in Orchard, Iowa, Tuesday, June 10, 2008 at 9:04 p.m. The Globe Gazette and Mitchell County Press News reported that Lori Mehmen of Orchard, took the photo from outside her front door. Mehmen said the funnel cloud came near the ground and then went back up into the clouds. The incident caused tree and crop damage, but no human injuries were reported.
(Lori Mehmen/AP Photo)


Here is more video from Iowa storm chasers as they tracked the tornado that hit Parkersburg.




MARITIME NOTE

From the Masters Quarters at

RS

Early And Intense Tornado Season Could Be Record

Early And Intense Tornado Season Could Be Record

ScienceDaily (June 14, 2008) — This year may set records for tornadoes and tornado-related deaths. “We have already seen more than 115 tornado-related deaths, making this the deadliest tornado season since 1998,” said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

“It is only the third time since the 1974 super tornado outbreak that there have been more than 100 tornado-related deaths during a single tornado season in the U.S.,” added Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory also in Norman. “In 1998 and 1984 there were 132 and 122 tornado-related deaths, respectively — 2008 will likely equal or exceed that record.”

Recent years averaged about 1,200 tornadoes and 60 tornado-related deaths reported annually across the United States. Most tornadoes occur from late winter to mid-summer, mostly in the Southeast in the early part of the season, followed by the Midwestern and Plains states in the later part of the season.

So why has this tornado season been so active? Meteorologists at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center say this winter's and early spring’s unusually turbulent weather may be to blame.

"The storm track over the last three months was very active across the Rockies and into the East Coast. This active storm track lends itself to more severe weather events, including tornadoes," said Carbin. “In previous years, major storms happened every week or so, but we have had a major storm system affecting some part of the U.S. every three to four days through early spring.”

“Another contributing factor is this year’s early start to the season. A total of 87 tornadoes struck the Tennessee valley and Midwest over a 24 hour period starting on Feb. 5, resulting in a total of 56 deaths,” said Carbin. “This storm ranks as number 15 in terms of the number of fatalities since 1950. February will likely turn out to be a record setting month once all the tornado reports have been verified.”

The tornadoes this season are also touching down in highly populated areas, thus increasing both the number of fatalities and the number of eyewitness reports of each tornado.

The strong start to the tornado season should serve as a reminder to us all that tornadoes can strike anywhere at any time. The best defense is to monitor the news and listen to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards for the latest weather updates. Be prepared to move to safety if weather conditions become threatening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

WEATHER NOTE

NOAA: New Orleans at risk from Cat. 2 hurricane
Tuesday June 17, 1:34 pm ET
By Cain Burdeau, Associated Press Writer

NOAA says New Orleans still vulnerable if hit by strong Category 2 hurricane

BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) -- Despite a massive effort to repair and upgrade flood defenses since Hurricane Katrina, storm surge could pour over levees in New Orleans if a strong Category 2 or higher hurricane strikes the city, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

While the forecast uses what officials say is the most accurate and complete picture yet of the region's levee heights, they said they weren't surprised by findings that reaffirm the area surrounding New Orleans is among the nation's most hurricane-vulnerable. The forecast released Monday represents the first time the yearly storm surge predictions have used levee heights based on global positioning system technology.

A team led by Roy Dokka, the director of the Center for Geoinformatics at Louisiana State University, traveled 1,000 miles of levees, flood walls and other coastal features since Katrina with GPS technology mounted on vehicles to obtain the new measurements.

"They are more correct than they have ever been before," Wilson Shaffer, a hurricane modeling expert with NOAA's National Weather Service, said of the levee-height measurements.

To predict how strong a storm would be to overpower a levee, researchers factor in variables including topography and a storm's wind speeds, size and intensity. The projections on storm surge are used by emergency planners, builders, residents and the Army Corps of Engineers.

The Corps of Engineers is determining how high to build levees under a congressional mandate to complete by 2011 a hurricane protection system capable of handling a storm likely to hit over the next century. A strong Category 2 likely would fall under that definition.

On Monday, the corps was unable to provide a breakdown on how much has been spent so far on work to repel storm surge. Since Katrina, Congress has given the corps about $7.1 billion to work with and it is considering giving the corps $5.7 billion more.

"We have a long way to go," said Randy Cephus, a corps spokesman in New Orleans. "There still remains risk and even once the system is complete, there will always be risk."

Before Katrina hit nearly three years ago, levee heights were woefully out-of-date and in many places far lower than officials thought they were, Dokka said.

But, unfortunately, the new measurements, incorporating post-Katrina levee upgrades, confirm an old story: the region remains at risk.

"In general, the pattern hasn't changed remarkably," said Stephen Baig, a storm surge expert with NOAA's National Hurricane Center. "Somewhere between a Category 2 and Category 3 overtopping occurs."

The NOAA storm surge estimates do not take into consideration possible engineering failures, like the levee breaches that caused most of the misery in New Orleans during Katrina, which was a category 3 upon landfall south of New Orleans.

State officials were not surprised by the latest findings.

"All of coastal Louisiana is vulnerable and will continue to be vulnerable," said Jerome Zeringue, a top levee aide to Gov. Bobby Jindal.

MARITIME NOTE

U.S. Coast Guard Maritime Safety Proposals

On March 31, 2008, the Department of Homeland Security posted an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPR) that has the potential to impact certain commercial fishing vessels. The Coast Guard is developing a set of proposed amendments to enhance maritime safety through changes to commercial fishing industry vessel regulations. The proposed changes would add new requirements for vessel stability and watertight integrity, stability training and assessments, vessel maintenance and self-examinations, immersion suits, crew preparedness, safety training, emergency preparation, safety and training personnel, safety equipment, and documentation. Miscellaneous conforming, clarifying, and other administrative changes are also contemplated.

To view the ANPR visit http://www.regulations.gov (In the search box type in USCG-2003-16158 proposed rule). You can also secure a copy of the ANPR by: visiting the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council's website at http://www.mafmc.org; requesting a copy of the ANPR from the Council by calling (302) 674-2331; or, emailing the Council at info@mafmc.org.

Following is the list of the 30 questions included at the end of the Federal Register Notice to which the Coast Guard is requesting public response.

1. Given the statistics on vessel losses in Tables 2 and 3, what issues related to stability and watertight integrity should the Coast Guard consider addressing in regulations?

2. Table 2 shows that vessel flooding results in the most vessel losses, and Table 3 shows that flooding and sinking account for a significant portion of fatalities. What areas should be addressed to reduce vessel flooding losses and fatalities?

3. What routine measures are used to prevent unintentional flooding?

4. How often is your vessel examined by a marine surveyor and under what circumstances? Is documentation of the survey provided?

5. Table 3 shows that fire is a significant cause of vessel losses. What areas should the Coast Guard consider addressing to reduce the number of fire related vessel losses (including, but not limited to: construction standards, detection and extinguishing equipment, fire fighting equipment, and firefighting training)?

6. What means are used to limit the danger of fires and the consequence of fires?

7. Table 2 shows that a significant number of vessel losses are related to allisions, collisions, and groundings; how should the Coast Guard address these causes of vessel losses?

8. What impact has safety training had in improving safety within the commercial fishing industry? Do you have recommendations concerning safety training?

9. What impact has crew drills had in improving safety within the commercial fishing industry? Do you have recommendations concerning crew drills?

10. If training were required would it be accomplished during off-season times?

11. How would additional training impact one’s ability to fish?

12. If stability standards for vessels between 50 feet and 79 feet in length are considered, what standards should apply, and to which vessels should the standards apply?

13. How does a crew become experienced in safety procedures?

14. Should entry level crewmembers be expected to have a minimum level of familiarity with safety procedures?

15. How and when is stability guidance used? If stability guidance is available but not used, please explain why.

16. How are operating personnel made aware of stability and watertight integrity guidance?

17. How often should stability guidance be reviewed, updated, or validated?

18. How are modifications to a vessel or its gear accounted for relative to the vessel’s maximum load, watertight integrity, and other stability considerations?

19. How adequate are current requirements for personal protection and survival equipment?

20. How do crew members become familiar with vessel safety and survival equipment?

21. How are safety risks aboard your vessel(s) identified and minimized?

22. If you are a small business, what economic impact on you, your business, or your organization would the rules we are considering have? In your comments please explain why, how, and to what degree such rules would have an economic impact.

23. Have you experienced—or are you aware of—any situations where any of the measures under consideration saved lives, or prevented/reduced harm/damage to vessels?

24. Are there areas not addressed that would benefit safety within the commercial fishing industry?

25. What are the costs of each requirement we are considering? Are there comparable alternative solutions to each requirement under consideration that may be more cost effective?

26. What are the direct and indirect costs of each requirement we are considering? For example, labor costs, training costs, and hourly wages of fishermen (or alternative measures of valuing their time if they are not salaried)? The costs of vessel losses, including equipment, lost catches, and any other opportunity costs?

27. Can any of the requirements we are considering be completed offseason? If so, which ones? For those that cannot, how much time would be taken away from productive fishing time to complete the requirement? How would this affect revenue, i.e., fish catches?

28. What would be the impact on the domestic fishing industry, if any, of each requirement we are considering? Would there be a differential impact by size of vessel or region?

29. What would be the economic impact of each requirement we are considering on States, local, and tribal governments?

30. What other requirements, if any, should the Coast Guard be considering?

Comments and related material must reach the Docket Management Facility on or before July 29, 2008. You may submit comments identified by Coast Guard docket number USCG-2003-16158 to the Docket Management Facility at the U.S. Department of Transportation. To avoid duplication, please use only one of the following methods:

(1) Online: http://www.regulations.gov.

(2) Mail: Docket Management Facility (M-30), U.S. Department of Transportation, West Building Ground Floor, Room W12-140, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590.

(3) Fax: 202-493-2251.

(4) Hand deliver: Room W12-140 on the Ground Floor of the West Building 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE., Washington DC 20590 . , between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m., Monday through Friday, except Federal holidays. The telephone number is 202-366-9329.

If you have questions on the proposed rule, call M.M. Rosecrans, Chief, Fishing Vessel Safety Division (CG- 5433), U.S. Coast Guard, telephone 202-372-1245, or e-mail Michael.m.rosecrans@uscg.mil. If you have questions on viewing or submitting material to the docket, call Ms. Renee V. Wright, Program Manager, Docket Operations, telephone 202-366-9826.

***This press release will be available on our website in a downloadable PDF format in the coming days. Please visit:

http://www.mafmc.org/mid-atlantic/press/press.htm

RS

High-Speed Storm Radars to Track Tornadoes, Fend Off Tragedy

High-Speed Storm Radars to Track Tornadoes, Fend Off Tragedy

By Erin Scottberg

Published on: June 16, 2008

When tornadoes start killing Boy Scouts, the world pays a
ttention. But even as a deadly EF-4 tornado whipped through Little Sioux, Iowa, with 145-mph-plus winds last Wednesday night, federal climate scientists and a group of university researchers were in the early phases of testing high-tech replacements for an aging Doppler radar system. Twisters across the United States in 2008 are headed for a record-setting pace (February's 148 nearly doubled a 37-year-old record); however, by 2013 a new network of satellites could be triangulating microfrequencies from the sky to Wi-Fi for real-time reactions to dangerously shape-shifting weather patterns.

America's current system for detecting tornadoes—about 120 Next Generation Radar, or NEXRAD, devices tracking a storm's direction and velocity—has been the backbone of weather prediction since the early 1990s, but experts say it is deeply flawed. The radars are tilted upward from the Earth half a degree, which may not seem like much—until you factor in the curvature of the Earth. By the time you get 40 or 50 miles out, radar beams are more than one-half mile high, therefore missing the bottom third of the troposphere where severe weather often begins to form. And at 5 to 6 minutes for a complete area scan, NEXRAD simply remains too slow.

The Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) network aims to address both problems, with short-range-satellites targeting the bottom of a storm and refreshing much more often—as in every minute. "CASA radars are gap-filling radars," explains Harold Brooks, a research meteorolgist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is developing the system with four schools across the country. "While the main NEXRAD radars give a really good view of the storm aloft, CASA radars could be set up to probe that area where the NEXRAD radars don't see."

This new rig borrows technology from the U.S. Navy, which for years has been using a similar system to track vessels on the seas. CASA radars, however, will be installed just a few miles away from each other on rooftops, cell towers and other existing infrastructure. The first testbed is a network of four nodes in the middle of Tornado Alley in southwestern Oklahoma; other early sites include Houston and Mayaguez, Puerto Rico. CASA officials expects to see at least quasi-operational CASA networks within the next five years to address some well-known gaps in the NEXRAD system, and widespread deployment within the next 15 years.

Aiming for nearby clouds, CASA's low-power nodes send out 10-watt microwave frequencies, which then bounce back before being sent to a processing unit in the bottom of the node over a gigabit Ethernet connection. The information is wirelessly transmitted to a central location over a 2-megabit-per-second DS3 connection. Here, data from all the nodes is collected and run through weather-predicting algorithms, which are growing more sophisticated as this new data is made available—and as new threats speed up research.

The high-speed-transmission approach, dubbed Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS), can respond to quickly changing weather conditions in real time. Based on faster and more comprehensive data collection, DCAS processing can refocus the CASA radars on a particularly interesting part of a storm (like an area that looks like it might develop a tornado) without losing track of an entire storm cell. "The system is continuously diagnosing the atmosphere and reallocating resources using wireless Internet as a backbone," says David McLaughlin, an engineering professor from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst who directs the CASA team. "At the core, this is a system that is able to focus the resources where and when the need is greatest. We can keep track of evolving hotspots—rotations and things like that—as nature spins them up."

Even with next-generation satellites and other storm-tracking technology in place, human know-how at the eye of the storm will always trump prevention research—and the Iowa Boy Scouts are only the most recent case study in disaster preparedness gone mostly right but still frighteningly sour. Brenda Philips, director of industry, government and end-user partnerships for the CASA team at UMass, is working with emergency responders, sociologists, human factors engineers and others to figure out how the massive data-gathering abilities of the CASA system can be fine-tuned to help would-be survivors take their own action.

"People want to know the tornado is going down their street," she says. "That's what makes people respond to warnings." Under the current NEXRAD Doppler system, a warning could be statewide, leading to false alarms for most of its residents. While the CASA rig and its corresponding data algorithms probably won't be able to predict the exact path of a tornado, they will combine to shrink the warning zone. And even shrinking those locations by a partial form factor could help save more of those at the heart of the storm. Someday, it could even allow isolated campers like the fallen Boy Scouts enough time to drive to underground shelter.

WEATHER NOTE

Lightning Safety Awareness Week
June 22-28, 2008

The Nation will celebrate its seventh annual National Lightning Safety Awareness Week, June 22-28, 2008. NWS staff thank all of the people who are helping to make this year's lightning safety campaign a reality. Lightning Safety Week is held the last full week of June each year.

Please visit the multimedia page to see some of the highlights of last year's campaign, including public service announcements with PGA Tour golfer Rocco Mediate and Vijay Singh, and Soccer Star Siri Mullinix and video clips with some of the other lightning experts who took part in the press conference

Florida Task Force Issues Final Report on Citizens' Claims Handling

June 16, 2008

The Task Force on Citizens Property Insurance Claims Handling and Resolution, created during the 2007 Legislative Special Session, issued its third and final report.

In addition to the June 11 submission, the task force will release a supplemental report, sometime before its statutory authority expires in November, after working with Citizens to understand why so many consumers asked to have their claim for damages from the 2004-2005 hurricanes re-opened in 2007. The task force will also examine the results of these requests.

The new study is in direct response to questions raised by the governor and the chief financial officer regarding the need for the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund to issue bonds to raise $625 million to pay claims from the 2004-2005 hurricanes that were just filed or re-opened in 2007.

Citizens is not the only insurer that received and paid new and re-opened claims. Most insurers who wrote coverage in the areas hit by Hurricane Wilma in 2005 are also impacted by the same situation.

Since May 21, 2007, the task force reviewed and monitored Citizens closure of its 2004/2005 hurricane claims; the implementation of procedures to handle future catastrophic events; the implementation of programs relating to the training of insurance agents, consumer services, administration of policies, and claims operations; and the establishment of its Office of the Internal Auditor.

Source: Florida Chief Financial Officer

MARITIME NOTE

Ferry sinks off Romblon; fate of 823 passengers unknown

MANILA, Philippines - A ferry carrying 823 people sunk off the coast of Sibuyan Island in the central Philippines after encountering huge wages brought by typhoon "Frank" over the weekend. Police in the town of San Fernando in Romblon province reported that the "MV Princess of Stars" of Sulpicio Lines was found upside down off the coast of the town.

At least four bodies and children's footwear were recovered on the shores of San Fernando town in the province of Romblon. Mayor Nanette Tansingco of San Fernando said police the bodies were recovered on the shore of Mabulo village Sunday morning."This is already a confirmed report," Nanette Tansingco. "I sent a speed boat to check on the report, and they saw the boat submerged with a hole in the hull. They saw the name Princess of the Star and there were at least four bodies there," Tansingco told a radio broadcast.

Navy and coast guard ships battled huge waves and strong winds Sunday to reach the ferry. Rescue vessels aborted an initial attempt Saturday to get to the "Princess of Stars" after it reportedly ran aground near Sibuyan island, but efforts resumed amid stormy weather Sunday, coast guard chief Vice Admiral Wilfredo Tamayo said.

Typhoon "Frank" (International Codename: Fengshen) lashed the central Philippines for about four hours Saturday, setting off landslides and floods, knocking out power, and blowing off roofs from houses.

Packing sustained winds of 74 miles per hour and gusts of up to 93 mph, the typhoon shifted course Sunday to the northwest and battered Metro Manila at dawn, chief government forecaster Nathaniel Cruz said.

In southern Maguindanao province, at least 14 people drowned in flash floods Saturday, including 10 who were swept away from riverside homes, said provincial administrator Norie Unas. Five others were missing.

Meanwhile, the 23,824-ton "Princess of Stars" was "dead in the water" after its engine failed around noon Saturday, Tamayo said.

Port captain Nestor Ponteres said the ferry's owner, Sulpicio Lines, had lost radio contact with the ship and the fate of its passengers remained unknown.

"A lot of efforts have been done to send off rescue boats, but we really can't get through the very rough weather," Tamayo said.
A 50-year-old man and his 10-year-old grandson were killed when a landslide buried their hillside shanty in Cotabato city Saturday, Mayor Muslimin Sema said. Authorities recovered the body of a farmer, one of three people reported missing in neighboring Cotabato province.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo directed the defense and local government departments to stand by for relief and rescue missions before she left for the United States late Saturday.

Officials said neck-deep flood waters had risen further with a high tide, forcing the evacuation of 5,000 people in Sultan Kudarat township in southern Shariff Kabunsuan province, near Cotabato city.

Officials ordered the evacuation of more than 117,000 people from areas prone to floods and landslides in central Albay province. But many returned home by midday Saturday after the typhoon missed the area.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council reported flooding, landslides and power outages caused by toppled power pylons in many areas in the southern and central Philippines. More than 100 domestic flights were canceled because of the typhoon.

The M/V Princess of the Star sent a distress signal late on Saturday from the area after becoming stranded when Typhoon Fengshen swept across the country.

GMANews.TV with reports from the Associated Press

CONTAINER SHIP RESCUES SAILING FAMILY

NEW YORK, NY (USCG & APL)

On June 9th, the crew of the APL-owned container ship Hyundai Japan braved 25 knot winds and 15 foot waves to rescue a German family of four, including a five-year old and 18-month old, from the clutches of the Atlantic Ocean 1,600 miles from New York City.

The Hyundai Japan, a Singapore flagged vessel and participant in the Amver system on long term charter from APL to Hyundai, overheard a distress call from the family aboard their 35 foot sailboat Dally On. The family was sailing from Antigua to the Azores when their boat was demasted and lost its rudder in a severe storm.

“They were in dire straits, so I said ‘I’m coming,’” explained Captain Parvez Guard, a 28-year veteran of APL and captain of the massive container ship.

While it took three tries, Captain Guard was able to bring his 980-foot ship alongside the stricken sailboat. Thirty-seven-year-old crewmember Anthony Gomez-Stalin then scrambled down a pilot’s ladder from the APL ship to the yacht. He snatched the 18-month old infant in his arm and carried her up the ladder to safety. The other family members followed one-after-the-other until all four were aboard the APL vessel safe and unhurt. Within an hour of receiving the first distress call the survivors were safely aboard the Hyundai Japan and Captain Guard was steaming towards New York harbor.

United States Coast Guard representatives were on hand as the Hyundai Japan pulled into port and gave a special commendation to Captain Guard and his crew for their efforts. “The crew acted in such a way as to ensure no call for help goes unanswered,” said Coast Guard Captain John Healey in presenting the commendation to APL. “On behalf of the United States Coast Guard we thank you for your outstanding seamanship and unwavering commitment to safety of life at sea."

Amver, sponsored by the United States Coast Guard, is a unique, computer-based, and voluntary global ship reporting system used worldwide by search and rescue authorities to arrange for assistance to persons in distress at sea. With Amver, rescue coordinators can identify participating ships in the area of distress and divert the best-suited ship or ships to respond. Prior to sailing, participating ships send a sail plan to the Amver computer center. Vessels then report every 48 hours until arriving at their port of call.

This data is able to project the position of each ship at any point during its voyage. In an emergency, any rescue coordination center can request this data to determine the relative position of Amver ships near the distress location. On any given day there are over 3,200 ships available to carry out search and rescue services. To learn more about this unique worldwide search and rescue system, visit http://www.amver.com/.

About APL
APL is a global container shipping business offering more than 60 weekly services and nearly 300 calls at more than 90 ports in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas. It combines world-class intermodal operations with leading-edge IT and e-commerce. APL is a unit of Singapore-based Neptune Orient Lines, a global shipping, terminals and logistics company. APL Web site: http://www.apl.com/

Maltese-flagged container ship fire extinguished

A fire onboard a container ship travelling in the North Pacific has been extinguished, the Coast Guard said on Friday.

The fire was reported from the 781-foot Maltese-flagged India Lotus early on Friday, as it was travelling 700 miles south of Dutch Harbour, according to Petty Officer Russ Tippets.

The Coast Guard had dispatched a C-130 plane from Kodiak and the Cutter Mellon. The crew of the India Lotus, a vessel owned by the Israeli company Ofer Brothers, said they no longer needed assistance.

Tippets said there were 32 people on board the ship and there were no reports of injuries.

RS

Flaws stir debate on severe storm alert systems

Flaws stir debate on severe storm alert systems

Emergency sirens that have failed to warn residents of severe storms in several communities this year are sparking debate across the USA about how to best alert people about dangerous weather.

Local governments are weighing the benefits of spending money to fix or replace sirens made ineffective by wear, age or vandalism versus moving to newer systems such as reverse 911 telephone systems, weather radios and text messaging.

When a tornado tore through downtown Jackson, Miss., April 4, it hit residents in the Northgate subdivision hard and without warning. No one was injured, but city officials discovered during the massive clean-up that the siren in the neighborhood did not work. Thieves apparently had disconnected it to steal the copper wiring and connectors, said Larry Fisher, Hinds County emergency management director.

Fisher said one out of every four emergency sirens in the county does not work. Weather, vandals, and normal wear have taken their toll on sirens, some of which date back to the 1950s, he said.

TORNADO TOLL: 2008 twisters on record-setting path

Maintaining an aging and at times unreliable network of sirens is a problem for communities in storm-prone areas nationwide.

• In Longview, Texas, at least two sirens of the city's 20 sirens did not go off during a March 18 tornado, even though the city has spent $300,000 over the past five years upgrading the system, Mayor Jay Dean said.

•In Topeka, Shawnee County Emergency Management Director Dave Sterbenz said residents reported that nearly a dozen sirens failed to sound during a May 2 tornado. Sterbenz said most actually sounded; but couldn't be heard inside houses.

• Franklin County, Ohio, which includes Columbus, spent more than $279,000 to fix its siren system after three-quarters of the system was damaged during a test last August, interim Emergency Management Director Jim Leonard said.

•The sole siren in tiny Keo, Ark., was not working when a tornado hit May 2. Mayor Nancy Tardy said firefighters drove fire trucks, sirens wailing, around the city of 235. Tardy said Keo has purchased a used siren for $8,000.

The Warning Alert and Response Network Act, which was signed into law in 2006, calls for a nationwide system of alerts for dangerous weather and other hazards distributed by text message. Although voluntary, the nation's major wireless carriers have agreed to participate, and last month the Federal Communication Commission approved guidelines that could put the system in place by 2010.

In testimony earlier this month before the House Homeland Security Committee, Federal Emergency Management Agency Assistant Administrator Martha Rainville touted what she called the "nation's next generation alert system" which will use telephones, cellphones, websites and e-mails to deliver alerts across multiple media. Dean said residents in his city of 76,000 still want the sirens, but he thinks the are too ineffective to stand alone. "We have about 75 to 80% go off when they are supposed to, " he said.

Longview is adding a reverse 911 system that calls residents when a tornado warning is issued for their area. Dean said the telephone solution is more dependable than the sirens.

"At 1:15 in the morning, had that siren been going off in my area, I wouldn't have heard it," he said. "People are going to pick that phone up, especially in the dead of night."

Joyner reports for The Clarion-Ledger in Jackson, Miss.

WEATHER NOTE

Local Camps Prepared For Severe Weather

By Gina Ford

Multimedia

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• Southside Mission Camp Kearney

Locally, one summer camp is taking precautions to ensure the safety of its children this tornado season.

It was a disastrous evening for Midwesterners as a tornado swept across the plains, killing two people in Chapman and Soldier, Kansas.

In Iowa, four boy scouts were killed and 48 others injured as another tornado passed through their campgrounds. The tornado flattened tents and structures at their isolated Western Iowa campgrounds. And now the potential for sever weather has many tornado alley residents shaken up.

But at Camp Kearney, they say they take extra precautionary measures to ensure the safety of all their campers.

Camp Kearney is a summer camp for low-income city and rural children.

Camp Director John Theien says they have a plan if severe weather hits Fulton County.

"Well it all starts with our training with our staff. Being aware of our grounds and where protection is."

He says there are camp counselors that constantly watch all 65 children who are at the summer camp.

Counselor Emily Gerber says she is on constant alert in case she has to get her girls to shelter.

She said, "We listen to radios, we are allowed radios in our cabins, so I usually have mine going to weather."

If a tornado warning takes effect, they rush all of the kids to the bathhouse, a windowless area surrounded by concrete walls.

They also sound a bell to let everyone know that it is an urgent situation.

Theien says he has worked with camps for 15 years, and he is confident that he and his counselors will keep their campers safe in the event of severe weather.

MARITIME NOTE

A Note On Roz Savage




While both Captain Konrad and myself understand the drive to challenge the sea and undertake a voyage such as the one Roz Savage has. I listened with sadness to Savage's podcast taking note of Captain John Konrad and myself. Ms. Savage while taking one of the ultimate challenges in any ones life...the sea. Seems to be not just attempting to row across the Pacific, but spin herself across the Pacific.

Ms. Savage is noted as saying that neither Captain Konrad nor I understand the expert team she has in place. Well if that is the case then my mother is a ULCC. Ms. Savage, both Captain Konrad and myself know exactly the make up of this so-called expert team.

What ever team (sic) Ms. Savage has in place is not a structured team at all and very loosely assembled. I do not want to take anything away from anyone associated with Ms. Savage, with exception of Mr. Shema. I am sure all associated are proficient to some degree. Whether they really know what is going on is another story. I can tell you all this much. If there is an expert team in place Ms. Savage's main sponsor who has provided her with over $200,000.00 + does not know about it either. So let's stop kidding everyone here.

We also note that someone asked a question about why Ms. Savage did not have a chase boat? Her answer? She could not afford one. That to is really not the truth. The truth is that both she and Rick Shema her weather guy, believe that having a chase boat would be a "Green Political Problem". Meaning that it would not look so good if a power craft came along side to assist her because Savage is rowing "Green" to save the environment. Green? Like the carbon footprint she is rowing in is all "Green"!

While the fact is that she never asked her sponsor for a chase boat and this so-called expert team never did either. The same applied to cutting her tangled anchor sea in heavy seas. She refused because that too would be considered polluting the ocean. I guess potentially sinking that carbon footprint "row boat" and loosing ones life is not a form of pollution at sea.?

Two week's ago, Ms. Savage while stranded some 160nm off of Point Conception, California in sea states of 8 and 9, asked Captain Konrad to obtain a rib boat and come out and assist her in retrieving her tangled sea anchor and resupply her with emergency drinking water as well as some gourmet foods. So much for telling the truth about chase boats.

Captain Konrad was not about to risk his life by taking a rib boat out 160nm in those types of sea states. Matter of fact, after inquiring about other supply and fishing boats that were large enough to undertake that type of trip, of which Ms. Savage's main sponsor was willing to absorb the costs for such a craft, none were willing to undertake the trip because of the weather. That is really how bad it was out there.

In my opinion and after a great deal of involvement with Ms. Savage, the USCG and her main sponsor. it is my belief that this ill-planned voyage has very little to do with focusing on pollution at sea and is nothing more than a elaborate public relations stunt for fame and glory.

Savage has an epiphany

To update the bog today regarding Ms. Savage and her "light bulb moment" idea on how to retrieve her tangled sea anchor. She writes in her blog of last night......

"This morning, as I was waking up, an idea came to me. The problem with the sea anchor was that although I could pull it in a certain distance, the next time a big wave came along it would yank the line out of my hands and I would lose the progress I had made. What I needed was a cleat that would allow me to wind the line around it, taking the strain off my hands and bringing the line in little by little. But I had no suitable cleats in the cockpit."

Brainstorm? It is sad, this was her idea? Try again Ms. Savage. This fix was what both Captain Konrad and myself explained to you over a week ago. But then again as you tell everyone, you have a expert team in place and no one on this team could find a solution? .......Just sad....

Executive Interview with US Coast Guard ADM Thad Allen

MarEx Print Article: Executive Interview with US Coast Guard ADM Thad Allen" style="border: 0pt none ; float: right;">

This week's archived print article features an exclusive executive interview with U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen. First published in our April 2008 Maritime Executive edition, the article outlines the way forward for the Coast Guard and also looks back at the past.

In this week's archive piece, U.S. Coast Guard Commandant ADM Thad Allen has pledged to modernize a Coast Guard that, in his own words, "has not kept pace" with the demands placed upon it in the post-9/11 regulatory world. Selling that message to Congress will be the linchpin of how successful his effort will be. The full amount of the President's FY '09 Coast Guard budget request hangs in the balance.

Allen has done a lot of selling in the past six months. More accessible to industry and on the move more often than any of his predecessors, he also spends a large amount of his time on Capitol Hill. Because he constantly meets with industry stakeholders, getting him to slow down long enough to take his temperature on the full range of his responsibilities is usually next to impossible.

In mid-February, Managing Editor Joseph Keefe was privileged to get two hours of Allen's undivided attention as he flew to Houston for an industry function. The details of this exclusive interview, providing direct and unvarnished dialogue that Allen willingly delivers, cannot be read or seen anywhere else. Follow along as ADM Thad Allen explains what he means by "Honoring the past, not operating in it."

Normally, this article can only be read by subscribing to the print edition THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE. Our print vehicle is the most comprehensive business journal, written for and about maritime executives. Click HERE to read the article.

Redefining Liability: Who's Really to Blame in the COSCO BUSAN Case?

COSCO BUSAN Case?" style="border: 0pt none ; float: right;"> Ship's owner asserts plausible case to deflect blame and accuse others of negligence and misconduct

The owner of the COSCO BUSAN, the ill-fated vessel that allided with the San Francisco Bay Bridge, has finally come out swinging against those who would blame the operator for a major San Francisco Bay oil spill last year. Alleging negligence and misconduct by the U.S. government because the ship's pilot was granted a license despite a history of drug and alcohol abuse, the response of Hong Kong-based Regal Stone directly contradicts a lawsuit filed earlier by the Justice Department which claims the owner and the pilot of the COSCO BUSAN broke environmental laws when the ship struck a bridge support and spilled 53,000 gallons of oil in the bay. It may be years – in fact, decades – before this one is settled.

The counterclaim probably has some merit. A vessel's owner should have a reasonable expectation that competent service will be provided when its vessels arrive at strange ports. These ports, at least here in the United States, typically stipulate compulsory pilotage for registered traffic. The goal? To ensure a safe and environmentally transit of the vessel through waters that can include sharp turns, mysterious currents and shallow waters (insufficient draft) where you least expect it. In the case of the COSCO BUSAN, many have already made up their minds that – for one reason or another – the ship did not get what it paid for.

Notwithstanding the National Transportation Safety Board's recent, callous and casual disclosures of the most intimate details of pilot John Cota's life, the counterclaim alleges that the pilot was medically unfit and incompetent to perform the duties required by his United States Coast Guard license. If the ship owner can demonstrate this accusation to the satisfaction of judge or jury, then they also may be on their way to getting off the hook. The irony of this situation may rest in the fact that the NTSB has already done most of the hard work that will be necessary to do just that.

Marine pilots typically make a lot of money, commanding salaries that put them in the same league as top surgeons and successful attorneys. And, it is a difficult job; one that puts the fate of hundreds of millions of dollars of cargo and similar priced ships in the hands of one individual. That person is also tasked with ensuring the safety of those ashore and the protection of the environment, as well. And so, if they are burdened with those responsibilities, then they should be adequately compensated for the job. By the same token, that pilot has heavy liabilities if something goes wrong. The age-old tenet of a pilot being merely an advisor to the Master is all but gone. Unfortunately, that tradition may also be all the government has left to argue its position, in the wake of this week's counterclaim by the ship owner.

In Boston, Massachusetts – at this very minute – the state legislature is actually contemplating the licensing of docking masters who operate under specific conditions of employment (and want to continue that situation) as laid out HERE. And, while most of us would think it extremely unlikely that pilots will escape liability for errors in the future, the terms and conditions that you just read in the clickable link could become standard operating procedure in Massachusetts, and soon. Just imagine the basis for a future lawsuit in the Bay State when a maritime incident occurs and the pilot – mandated by law – cannot be held liable for anything.

Meanwhile, back in San Francisco, Cota has pleaded not guilty and a trial date has not been set. The Justice Department is predictably not saying much and supposedly has until early August to respond to the counterclaim. Pilots, regulatory personnel, federal and state governments everywhere are watching closely; and with good reason. There's only one thing that is very clear in all of this: there's plenty of blame to go around for everyone. And, when the fog finally lifts, I doubt there will be anyone – pilots, ship's operators or crew, regulators and governments alike, that will be happy with the final result. Somebody once told me that the mark of a good deal is one which leaves all parties somewhat unsatisfied. I'm betting that in the case of the COSCO BUSAN, this adage will hold especially true. - MarEx

FREAK WAVES PART V





WEEKEND PODCAST ENJOYMENT

Have a great weekend!

RS

For Hurricanes, Storms, Raindrop Size Makes All The Difference

For Hurricanes, Storms, Raindrop Size Makes All The Difference

ScienceDaily (Jun. 13, 2008) — When Tropical Storm Gaston hit Richmond, Va., in August 2004, its notable abundance of small and mid-sized raindrops created torrential rains that led to unexpected flash flooding throughout the city and its suburbs. New research from NASA has concluded that tropical cyclones like Gaston produce rain differently than another class of storms called "extra-tropical" cyclones. According to the study, making a proper distinction between these systems by looking at both raindrop size and abundance may be a key to assisting weather forecasters in estimating rainfall intensity. By doing so, forecasters can reduce the surprise factor of flash flooding and the unfortunate loss of property and life.

Ali Tokay, a research scientist from the Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET) at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., compared the rain measurements collected in tropical storms and hurricanes during the past three Atlantic hurricane seasons with measurements after these storms transitioned to being extra-tropical. Tokay's study appeared in the May issue of the American Meteorological Society's Monthly Weather Review.

When a tropical cyclone -- the generic name for tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes -- merges with a mid-latitude frontal storm system, measurable changes to the raindrop size and abundance occur as the system transitions to become extra-tropical. Extra-tropical cyclones also form outside the tropics without being part of a tropical system, and tend to form over land rather than over the open ocean. This category of storm can produce anything from a cloudy sky to a thunderstorm as it develops between weather fronts, the boundaries separating air masses of different densities.

Tokay looked at raindrop size, rain intensity, and the area in which rain falls in both tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones using ground-based rain-measuring instruments called disdrometers. These instruments measure the range of raindrop sizes in a storm and the intensity of the rainfall. The disdrometer is an important part of the ground-based rain measuring instruments that are used to validate rainfall seen from satellites including the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint mission with NASA and the Japanese Space Agency. He concluded that tropical cyclones that form over water tend to rain harder and have a greater amount of smaller drops before they transition to being extra-tropical with raindrops of larger size and mass.

"Torrents of rainfall from tropical storms are not surprising since the systems are large and move slowly. It is also true that slow moving frontal systems associated with an extra-tropical cyclone can result in abundant rainfall at a site," said Tokay. "What is less known is that the distribution of raindrops within a volume of air between the two systems differs substantially even though weather radar may measure the same returned power which is known as reflectivity." This is why disdrometer measurements of raindrop size are needed.

"Both rain intensity and reflectivity are integral products of raindrop size distribution, but they are mathematically related to different powers of the drop size," said Tokay. Weather radars cannot measure the range of raindrop sizes. As a result, rainfall estimates from weather radars must employ the use of equations that make assumptions about raindrop size. These assumptions can result in underestimation of rain intensity, and the possibility of deadly flooding.

In the study, Tokay uses disdrometer data from various sites around the U.S. and abroad. Most of the data were collected at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Va., where Paul Bashor of Computer Sciences Corporation, Wallops Island, Va. maintains several types of disdrometers. The data from two tropical storms were collected at Orlando, Fla., and Lafayette, La. through collaborative efforts with Takis Kasparis at the University of Central Florida's Orlando campus, and Emad Habib of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette.

WEATHER NOTE

Hurricane simulator could make homes safer

MARK COLVIN: The hurricane season is underway on America's Atlantic Coast and forecasters are predicting a busy few months. They're expecting somewhere between 12 and 16 storms that are serious enough to get a name.

Up to five of those could turn into major hurricanes, but the experts are onto it.

The University of Florida has created the world's biggest hurricane simulator aimed at protecting millions of homes from potential devastation.

What's called a hurricane in the northern hemisphere is a cyclone in Australia, so the findings could be also be useful here, as Jayne Margetts reports.

(Sound of the hurricane simulator idling)

JAYNE MARGETTS: It may sound like a high powered sports car. But it's the world's first hurricane simulator.

The machine is designed to test what hurricanes can do to people's homes so that they can be better protected. It's capable of producing winds in excess of 200 kilometres per hour and making up to 90 centimetres of rain.

Florida University's Forrest Masters is in charge of the project:

FORREST MASTERS: We've harnessed 2,800 horsepower, a locomotive's worth of power to recreate a wind field large enough to envelop part of a single family home.

In the late 1990s we began deploying into hurricanes to take measurements, and the simulator you see here is our first effort to bring the hurricane back into the laboratory to evaluate building systems, urban landscaping and really anything that could find its way into the path of a hurricane.

JAYNE MARGETTS: It wouldn't look out of place on the set of a science fiction movie. Eight industrial fans, each well over a metre high have been strapped together. At the back of the machine huge silver pipes suck in air from different directions.

The simulator is run by four marine diesel engines. A 20,000-litre water tank is needed just to keep them cool.

Laboratory manager Jimmy Jesteadt says it'll help find ways of protecting the homes and lives of millions of people.

JIMMY JESTEADT: We've had many years of going into the field after a hurricane has passed through and you definitely get your reality check when you see the thousands of people that have been misplaced from their homes and basically what we're in this for is – the civil engineering aspect of it – is to make the homes last for people's safety.

JAYNE MARGETTS: The scientists have built a makeshift house, and placed it in the path of the simulator. Eventually they hope to design water resistant windows, windproof roof tiles and stronger structures.

Mr Masters says it's a personal mission for many of the team members.

FORREST MASTERS: The students that staff the project grew up in hurricane-prone areas. It’s part of their culture and now they're getting the chance to come back into a laboratory setting and do something about it.

JAYNE MARGETTS: Dr Michael Coughlan is from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

MICHAEL COUGHLAN: Well, it's certainly a very impressive piece of equipment. It doesn't actually simulate hurricanes per se, but what it does do is simulates the wind speed and rain conditions, rainfall conditions that one might experience in a hurricane.

And of course, it does this on, you know, fairly large scale, much bigger of course than one would normally do inside a wind tunnel in a laboratory where one could put a model inside the wind tunnel and then subject the model to strong winds.

In this case, the machine is big enough that they can actually use it out in the open and use it on real houses.

MARK COLVIN: Dr Michael Coughlan ending that report by Jayne Margetts

Strong typhoon may hit Southern Vietnam

VietNamNet Bridge - Unpredictable floods, tropical depressions and rainstorms will be stronger this year than in previous years. Violent storm like Cyclone Nargis, a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the recorded history of Burma (Myanmar), may hit Viet Nam during the current rainy season.

Typhoons on East Sea could be stronger than in previous years, said Tran The Kiem of the Central Hydro-Meteorological Forecast Center.

Meteorologists warned that a strong hurricane could strike the Mekong delta.

If a cyclone of force 13 or higher pounds the delta, it will cause tremendous losses because the region is rarely hit by major storms.

Hence there is no public awareness or experience in dealing with them, according to the National Committee on Search and Rescue. In addition, many buildings in the area are not well built.

A tropical low pressure area continued to bring showers to parts of North and North Central regions on Sunday, according to the National Hydro-meteorology Forecast Center.

Because torrential rains poured down for several days in the North, more water has flowed into the reservoir of the Hoa Binh Hydroelectric Power Plant. Water was flowing in at a rate of nearly 4,000 cubic meters per second. The water level on the Hoa Binh River on Sunday rose 3m to 91.5m.

The tropical low pressure could bring heavy but isolated showers and thunderstorms to the North and North Central regions before weakening. In the Highlands and in the South, there will be gusts and rains with temperatures of 20°C to 34°C

Gustnado-Developing tornado?

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MARITIME NOTE

Captain describes tragedy at sea

Everything happened so quickly.

Recovering at home in Seacow Pond, P.E.I. on Wednesday, Casey Gavin recalled how a routine fishing trip suddenly turned tragic early Sunday morning.

Gavin, the owner of the ill-fated Toys for Big Boys, and two of his crewmembers had turned in for the night while Danny Ellsworth took charge of sailing the boat home to Tignish.

“I heard Danny saying, ‘You’d better get up. Something’s wrong.’”

“I looked to the stern of the boat. It was already under water.”

Gavin yelled to crewmembers Kyle Costain and Brian DesRoches to get up. “She’s going down,” he warned.

“I took the life raft off the cab of the boat. I threw it down and she blew up. The four of us got into her.”

The stern of the fibreglass boat was now submerged and the water pressure caused the wooden deck to break free.

The bow was out of the water 20 feet and then went straight down.

“From the time I got up and the four of us were in the life raft was less than a minute and the boat was gone,” Gavin related. “That’s how fast she went.”

The crew of four was in a life raft, but they weren’t safe. The weight of the ropes now sinking to the bottom caused the deck to flip over in slow motion, Gavin said.

“We were pushing with all we were worth,” but they couldn’t get out of its way.

The deck flipped over on top of their small craft, trapping the crew beneath it. Three of them were able to fight their way clear, but Ellsworth did not resurface.

There were ropes floating all around them, and they had to fight through. Gavin, a non-swimmer, was the first to make it back to the deck and helped Costain onto it.

They cut buoys free and threw them to DesRoches until he was able to grab onto one and get to the deck.

They called and called to Ellsworth but got no response.

For two hours, Gavin estimates, the three men braced themselves on the deck, the waves sometimes breaking over them. Pieces of deck kept breaking off and, as they did, their section of deck sank deeper, until they were neck-deep in water.

They had gathered up buoys and tied them together, figuring they’d tie themselves to them if their platform sank from beneath them.

The men had become aware their raft was beneath the platform and, when another piece broke away the raft resurfaced, upside down. It took all their strength to right it and climb inside.

Only after hearing a fishing boat in the distance did they set off emergency flares, preferring not to waste them in the fog.

The cause of the boat sinking has not been determined, but Gavin said Coast Guard personnel indicated a log was seen in the area, which left him wondering if that may have torn a hole in the side of his boat.

(Eric McCarthy is a journalist with Transcontinental Media’s Journal Pioneer, which is a contributor to the Sou’Wester.)

RS