Fourth In A Series - Waves

Introduction

The roughness of the oceans has important consequences for seafarers and coastal communities, and is linked to the global climate system through atmospheric circulation and winds. Satellite altimetry brought a global perspective on ocean wave climate (Chelton et al., 1981). With the accumulation of lengthy and carefully validated datasets from a number of satellite altimeters, it is now possible to evaluate the seasonality and inter-annual variability of wave climate globally to a resolution of the order of 100km.

Measuring Waves with Satellite Altimeters

By convention, significant wave height is defined to be four times the root-mean-square elevation of the sea surface, and is a standard statistic for the roughness of the sea surface. Satellite altimeters measure the roughness of the sea through the blurring of the leading edge of the reflected pulses by the uneven surface. Altimeter estimates of significant wave height are corrected by calibration with high-quality buoy data (Challenor and Cotton, 2001). Altimeters only measure the roughness of the sea in a small footprint (~10km diameter) immediately below the satellite. The data sampling is sparse, but sufficient to establish monthly mean significant wave heights on a 2^o latitude by 2^o longitude grid, or better if more than one satellite is operational. The gridded data sets are constructed from median values of individual "passes" across each grid box. Wave heights vary rapidly close to coasts. Also, the altimeter cannot measure waves if its footprint overlaps land. Therefore, the gridded altimeter datasets provide an offshore climatology only. Data along individual satellite passes can be analysed to extend analysis nearer shore, but even then the sizeable footprint of the altimeters is a limitation. Other methods are necessary to describe waves within 10km of the coastline.

Passes in the vicinity of United Kingdom

(Topex/Poseidon/Jason in Black, ERS-&2/Envisat in Red)

Global Wave Climatology

Average significant wave height can be measured monthly over the globe by satellite altimeter. Wave height varies regionally and seasonally, monthly means mostly varying between 1 metre and 5 metres. Generally, the sea is rougher at high latitudes (North and South) than in the tropics. Wave climate in the extra-tropical North Pacific and North Atlantic is especially seasonal with much rougher conditions in the northern (boreal) winter than in the summer. The Southern Ocean is roughest in the southern (austral) winter, but is very rough throughout the year. Nearer the equator, larger waves can be either swell propagating from higher latitudes, or can be the result of seasonal winds (e.g., monsoons and tropical storms). The Arabian Sea is particularly rough from June to August coinciding with the Southwest Monsoon.

The seasonal and regional wave climate can be summarised by fitting a sinusoidal function of annual period to the monthly mean significant wave heights for each grid square. At each location, the seasonality can be represented by the annual mean, the timing of the maximum wave height (phase of the sinusoid) and the range (twice the amplitude of the sinusoid).

Global Seasonality of Waves. Top: Annual Mean (metres); Middle: Annual Range (metres); Bottom: Phase (peak in months)

North Atlantic and British Isles

There is evidence that the North Atlantic Ocean grew considerably rougher between the 1960s and 1980s, during the age of the ocean weather ships, at least at a few isolated stations (Bacon and Carter, 1991). Is this natural variability or global warming? A new perspective is brought by analysis of satellite data.

The seasonality of wave climate around the British Isles is derived from monthly gridded altimeter measurements over five complete years (1993-1997). The ocean relatively rough throughout the year, while more sheltered regions, for example around south east England, are relatively calm. The seasonality varies slightly from region to region. For example, the spring tends to be slightly rougher than the autumn to the north west of the British Isles, but the reverse is generally true in the North Sea and the Southwest Approaches.

Seasonality of wave climate around the UK

The seasonal cycle is a fair representation of the average climate in the 1990s. However, there is also a great deal of variability about the mean in individual years. This is especially true during the winter months in the Atlantic and Atlantic margins, with monthly mean significant wave heights changing by up to a factor of two from one year to the next. The most obvious candidate as a source for this variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation (Hurrell, 1995), which has a widespread effect on many facets of climate, particularly in the months of December to March. We use gridded mean significant wave heights from these four calendar months in six consecutive winters, 92/93 -97/98. For each of the 24 months, "anomalies" are calculated by subtracting the mean seasonal cycle. Principal component methods are used to derive a spatial pattern of significant wave height anomalies whose time-dependent amplitudes are maximally correlated to an NAO index (Jones et al., 1997). A model for the anomalies is constructed by using the spatial pattern to calculate coefficients of a linear model relating the monthly anomaly to the monthly NAO index.

Inter-annual variability of wintertime wave climate

(above, spatial pattern of 1st eof; below, principal component (red crosses) and NAO Index (black squares)

The performance of the model is illustrated at a single location (57^o-58^oN, 8-10^oW) on the edge of the Hebridean shelf. This location is typical of the region to the north west of the British Isles where inter-annual variability is greatest. Measured anomalies in excess of 2 metres (above or below the means of about 5 metres in each of the four calendar months) are recorded. These anomalies are well described by the relationship to the NAO. In other regions around the British Isles, the variability is lower and the model is less successful in describing this variability. However, the NAO is apparently a factor in determining wave climate throughout the area with the exception of the East Coast of England and Scotland.

Satellite altimetry provides a consistent coverage of wave climate around the British Isles. Previously, wave climatologies were constructed from measurements at a variety of sites and times (Draper, 1980 and 1991). The new climatology is based on measurements in the 1990s and reflects changes in wave climate since earlier decades (Bacon and Carter, 1991; Alcock and Rickards, 2001). Satellite data indicates that an upward trend in wave heights continued from the late 1980s into the early 1990s (Carter, 1999), but the behaviour during the 1990s was erratic. This behaviour can be explained by the NAO, which shifted towards more positive index values between the early 1960s and late 1990s before dramatically switching to its negative phase in the winter of 95/96. The relationship to the NAO is robust and can be used to hindcast the wave climate in much earlier times (Woolf et al., 2002).

Validation of NAO relationship at OWS Lima, extending back to the 1970s.

Behaviour of the NAO in recent decades (9-year running mean)

Hindcast of recent changes in wave height due to NAO.

Download papers on North Atlantic Wave Climate or UK Wave Climate from here

More on Hurricane Dean!

MASTER ENDEAVOUR driven aground by hurrican 'Dean', in Fort de France bay (Martinique - FWI), night 16-17 Aug 2007. The ship was anchored in the bay without crew, under arrest for drug smuggling.

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Aftermath: Hurricane Dean

USAID Assists Latin America and Caribbean After Hurricane Dean

August 22, 2007

Street Corner in Kingston, Jamaica one day after Hurricane Dean Traffic light down in Kingston one day after Hurricane Dean

BACKGROUND AND KEY DEVELOPMENTS

• On August 21, Hurricane Dean was downgraded from a category five to a category one hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson scale as it crossed Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize. The storm continued across the Bay of Campeche on August 22, making landfall at 1230 hours eastern standard time near the town of Tecolutla, 40 miles south-southeast of Tuxpan, having strengthened slightly to a category two hurricane. According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, Dean is expected to weaken as it moves inland.
• Impact assessments are ongoing in Belize and Mexico, but early reports indicate less damage than originally expected.
• Beginning on August 17, Hurricane Dean passed through the Eastern Caribbean as a category two storm, strengthening to category four as it moved across Jamaica. The hurricane caused damage in St. Lucia, Dominica, Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Martinique. The most damage reported to date is in Jamaica.
• In response to the impact of Hurricane Dean in Jamaica, USAID/OFDA has dispatched relief commodities including 420 rolls of plastic sheeting, 6,250 blankets, 5,000 ten-liter water containers, and 2,592 hygiene kits. The commodities arrived in Kingston on August 22. The total value of all items, including transport, is more than $297,000.
• On August 22, USAID/OFDA provided $100,000 to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) to respond to emergency health needs resulting from Hurricane Dean in Jamaica. To date, USAID/OFDA has provided more than $570,000 to support emergency response activities in Jamaica.

Latin America and the Caribbean Hurricane Season 2007 Fact Sheet #2 - August 22, 2007 (pdf, 70kb)

Latin America and the Caribbean Hurricane Season 2007 Map #2 - August 22, 2007 (pdf, 351kb)

NUMBERS AT A GLANCE

Belize	1,675 displaced 658 houses destroyed	Government of Belize – August 22, 2007
Dominica	2 dead, 30 injured 771 houses damaged, 43 houses destroyed	PAHO - August 21, 2007 CDERA1 – August 21, 2007
Dominican Republic	1 dead, 300 houses destroyed or partially destroyed, 1,600 persons in shelters	PAHO- August 21, 2007
Haiti	4 dead 2,000 families affected	OCHA2- August 19, 2007 IFRC3 – August 22, 2007
Jamaica	3 dead, 3,500 people in shelters 3,500 confirmed affected in areas assessed*	ODPEM4, August 21, 2007 USAID Assessment Team – August 21, 2007
Martinique	1 dead	OCHA- August 19
Saint Lucia	1 dead	OCHA- August 19

*Figures based on very preliminary figures.
¹ Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA)
² U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA)
³ The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)
⁴ The Government of Jamaica’s Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM)

FY 2007 HUMANITARIAN FUNDING PROVIDED TO DATE

USAID/OFDA Assistance to Jamaica: $572,243
Total USAID Humanitarian Assistance to the Caribbean: $572,243

CURRENT SITUATION

Jamaica

• On August 21, USAID disaster response specialists joined field assessments led by ODPEM to five severely affected communities. The teams reported extensive damage in the area of Old Harbour Bay in Saint Catherine Parish, where hurricane force winds demolished an estimated 80 percent of the houses and left thousands in need of relief assistance. These initial assessments also noted that Hurricane Dean killed three people, damaged thousands of houses, and left at least 3,500 people in need of food, water, and relief supplies. The USAID assessment team believes that the number of affected will continue to rise as results from other field assessments become available. Field assessments will continue on August 22.
• According to ODPEM, although Hurricane Dean struck the island on August 19 as a category four hurricane, the storm did less damage to the island’s infrastructure than was initially anticipated. In contrast to previous hurricanes, such as the destructive Hurricane Ivan in 2004, Hurricane Dean moved quickly through Jamaica, resulting in less heavy rainfall and landslides.

  Belize

• According to USAID's disaster response specialist in Belize, Hurricane Dean destroyed more than 650 homes and displaced more than 1,600 people. However, the storm did not cause any major damage to infrastructure, and Belize’s international airport and seaports have reopened.
• On August 21, U.S. Embassy staff conducted an aerial assessment utilizing two U.S. military helicopters, to determine the extent of hurricane damage in Belize. The overflight revealed some roof and crop damage, but overall was much less than initially expected.

  Mexico

• USAID emergency staff are conducting preliminary damage and needs assessments in the affected areas of Mexico, but reports to date indicate that because of excellent disaster preparedness planning and actions taken by the Government of Mexico (GOM), no one died in the Yucatan Peninsula as a result of Hurricane Dean and property damage was less than expected.
• Cancun International Airport did not sustain significant damages during the hurricane, and the airport is on stand-by to receive flights carrying relief supplies in the event that the areas impacted by Hurricane Dean require assistance. To date, 85 percent of cellular communication is operating and public transportation and water services have resumed normal operations in Cancun, according to the Municipal Office of Public Works.
• As of August 21, the Chetumal Airport remained closed, and public transportation has not resumed operations.

USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

• USAID/OFDA is monitoring Hurricane Dean’s track and impact from the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) Regional Office in San Jose, Costa Rica, as well as from Washington, D.C. USAID/OFDA staff are currently in Barbados, Belize, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, and Nicaragua. In total, 22 USAID/OFDA emergency staff are deployed to respond to the impact of Hurricane Dean.
• Jamaica: On August 20, U.S. Ambassador to Jamaica Brenda LaGrange Johnson declared a disaster due to the damage caused by Hurricane Dean. In response to the impact of the hurricane, USAID/OFDA has dispatched relief commodities to Jamaica. The commodities, which include 420 rolls of plastic sheeting, 6,250 blankets, 5,000 ten-liter water containers, and 2,592 hygiene kits, are scheduled to arrive in Kingston on August 22. The total value of all items including transport is $297,243. USAID/OFDA has also provided $100,000 to support emergency health services through PAHO and $175,000 to ODPEM for emergency relief supplies. A six-member USAID assessment team, which arrived in Jamaica on August 18, continues to conduct assessments and coordinate response efforts with U.N. agencies, Government of Jamaica authorities, non-governmental organization (NGO) partners, donors, and other disaster assessment teams.
• Mexico: On August 19, in advance of Hurricane Dean, USAID deployed three disaster response specialists to the Yucatan as well as a three-person team to Mexico City to work closely with the USAID mission, U.S. Embassy, and the GOM. The response specialists are currently conducting joint damage assessments with Mexican disaster responders. Two USAID emergency staff are traveling to areas around Vera Cruz to support assessments following Hurricane Dean’s second landfall. However, no U.S. assistance has been requested by the GOM.
• Since 2000, USAID has provided more than $142 million in response to the devastating effects of hurricanes and tropical storms throughout Central America and the Caribbean.

Weather Story

The Chicago storms of August 23 and 24th brought some very interesting and severe weather to the region. Here is one of the storm captured by Storm Chaser John Farley on August 24, 2007 in Madison County, Illinois




John's Report; August 24, 2007 Madison County, Illinois Chase

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Synopsis Hurricane Dean

Hurricane Dean has been downgraded to Tropical Depression Dean after coming ashore with top sustained winds of 160 kph (100 mph), Dean's center hit the tourism and fishing town of Tecolutla shortly after civil defense workers loaded the last evacuees onto army trucks and headed to inland shelters.

At 10 p.m. local time (11 p.m. EDT, 0300 GMT), Dean was about 150 kilometers (95 miles) northwest of Mexico City and was heading westward at near 34 kpm (21 mph). The Hurricane Center downgraded Dean to a tropical depression and predicted it would dissipate on Thursday over the mountains of central Mexico.

Dean's sustained winds dropped to 137 kph (85 mph), Category 1, shortly after making landfall in late morning, and it quickly weakened into a tropical storm with winds of 75 kph (45 mph) as of the early evening.

Dane Clark of Jenifer Clark's Gulfstream told us that "Dean's history now, but was quite a storm with a 902mb pressure. Of course, it never made it to the gulfstream....but the "headwaters" of the stream in the western Caribbean had water temps to 90 deg F. Enough fuel I'd say!"

Yes the US Gulf Coast cab breath again tonight, but there are a number of tropical waves developing that we need to watch for.

Hurricanville has a excellant Synopsis of Hurricane Dean for those interested. Here is the latest video from Mexico.



The national Hurricane Center released a 9 August update to its Hurricane Outlook.

NOAA: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update

Issued: 9 August 2007 Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

SUMMARY NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The outlook calls for an even higher probability of an above-normal season than was predicted in May (75%), and reiterates the expectation for a sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed last year. The 2007 season is expected to become the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began twelve years ago (in 1995). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The 2007 outlook calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 140%-200% of the median. These ranges are slightly tighter than those predicted in May (13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 125%-210%). The tighter ranges reflect not only an increased confidence for an above normal season, but also a reduced likelihood of seeing as many as 10 hurricanes and 17 named storms. The prediction for an above-normal 2007 hurricane season reflects the combination of two main climate factors: 1) the continuation of conditions that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) the continued La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection. In addition, temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea remain well above average (0.56oC). This combination of conditions is known to produce high levels of Atlantic hurricane activity. So far this season, there have been three Atlantic named storms (Andrea, Barry, and Chantal), which is slightly above average for June and July. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. However, the vast majority of the activity in 2007 is expected during the peak months of the season- August through October (ASO). DISCUSSION 1. Expected Activity - 85% chance above normal, 10% chance near normal, 5% chance below normal An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the collective intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes during the hurricane season. The ACE index is also used to define above-, near-, and below-normal hurricane seasons (see Background Information). A value of 117% of the median (median value is 87.5) corresponds to the lower boundary for an above-normal season. For 2007, the ACE index is expected to be in the range of 140% to 200% of the median. The upper portion of the range is above the 175% baseline used to define a hyperactive season (Goldenberg et al. 2001). Based on this predicted ACE range, and on the 85% probability of an above-normal season, we expect a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes [categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale]. This predicted ACE range can be satisfied even if the numbers of named storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes fall outside their expected ranges. The majority of tropical storms and hurricanes during 2007 are expected to form over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is typical for above-normal seasons. These systems generally track westward toward the Caribbean Sea and/or United States as they strengthen. Historically, similar conditions have typically produced 2-4 hurricane strikes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. However, it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. 2. Expected Climate Conditions – Active multi-decadal signal, La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection, warmer western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea The prediction for an above-normal 2007 hurricane season reflects the combination of two main climate factors: 1) the continuation of conditions that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) the continued La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection. All features of the multi-decadal signal are already in place across the tropical Atlantic, as is a persistent La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. In addition, temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea remain well above average (0.56oC). This combination of conditions is known to produce very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. Therefore, the probability of an above-normal season has increased to 85% (from 75% in May), and the lower bound for the ACE range has increased to 140% (from 125% in May). At the same time, the upper bound for ACE has dropped slightly to 200% (from 210% in May), and the maximum expected number of hurricanes has dropped slightly to 9 (from 10 in May). These changes reflect: 1) A reduced chance of a moderate to strong La Niña episode, and 2) Cooler SSTs in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean compared to previous record levels. a. Continuation of active Atlantic hurricane era Atlantic hurricane seasons exhibit prolonged periods, lasting decades, of generally above-normal or below-normal activity. These fluctuations in hurricane activity result almost entirely from differences in the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forming from tropical storms first named in the main development region (MDR), which spans the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 30oW-87.5oW and 10oN-21.5oN (Goldenberg et al. 2001). Hurricane seasons during 1995-2006 have averaged 14.4 named storms, 8.2 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an average ACE index of 172% of the median. NOAA classifies nine of the last twelve hurricane seasons as above normal, with seven being hyperactive. Only three seasons since 1995 have not been above normal. These are the El Niño years of 1997, 2002, and 2006. This high level of activity contrasts sharply to the 1971-1994 period of generally below-normal hurricane seasons, when seasons averaged 8.5 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1.5 major hurricanes, with an average ACE index of only 75% of the median. One-half of those seasons were below normal, only three were above normal (1980, 1988, 1989), and none were hyperactive. Time series of key atmospheric wind parameters highlight the dramatic differences between these above-normal and below-normal hurricane eras. The regional atmospheric circulation contributing to these long-period fluctuations in hurricane activity is strongly linked to the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal (Bell and Chelliah, 2006). A change in phase of that signal accounts for the transition in 1995 from the below-normal era to the above normal era. The multi-decadal signal is again a major factor guiding the 2007 outlook. Three key features of this signal that are associated with the current active hurricane era are: 1) a stronger West African monsoon system, 2) below-average convection in the Amazon Basin, and 3) warmer than average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Other ongoing regional aspects of the multi-decadal signal again expected during the 2007 hurricane season include 1) lower surface air pressure, and increased moisture across the tropical Atlantic, 2) an amplified ridge at upper levels across the central and eastern subtropical North Atlantic, 3) reduced vertical wind shear in the MDR, which results from an expanded area of easterly winds in the upper atmosphere (green arrows) and weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere (dark blue arrows), and 4) weaker easterly winds in the middle and lower atmosphere, which produce a configuration of the African easterly jet (wavy blue arrow) that favors hurricane development from tropical waves moving westward from the African coast. b. Continuation of a La Niña-like pattern of convection in the tropical Pacific Ocean The second key predictor for the 2007 hurricane season is the possibility of a La Niña episode in the tropical Pacific during ASO. The Climate Prediction Center is currently indicating a slightly greater than 50% chance that La Niña will develop during the peak of the hurricane season. As discussed by Gray (1984), La Niña favors more Atlantic hurricanes and El Niño favors fewer hurricanes. Equatorial Pacific SSTs remain below-average in the east and above average in the west. This anomaly pattern has been associated with suppressed convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and enhanced convection over the western equatorial Pacific. This La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection has already acted to suppress the East Pacific hurricane season. This pattern is expected to continue even if La Niña does not develop. There is a strong inverse relationship between eastern Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, primarily because similar circulation anomalies impact the basins oppositely through differing climatological flow patterns. The significantly below-average eastern Pacific activity to date increases our confidence for an active Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña also helps to extend the Atlantic activity into November. The high likelihood of a La Niña-like influence on the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season contrasts to last year, when a rapidly developing El Niño during August-September helped to shut-down Atlantic hurricanes in October and November (Bell et al. 2007). c. Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) In the western tropical Atlantic/ Caribbean Sea, sea-surface temperatures remained well above average (0.56oC) during June and July, and departures of approximately +0.5oC are expected in that region during ASO 2007. In the eastern tropical Atlantic, SSTs fell back to only slightly above-average levels (0.18oC) during June-July, following record warm ASO temperatures in that region since 2004. This cooling was associated with a persistent high pressure pattern over the Atlantic Ocean, which brought strong northeasterly winds into the tropics that cooled the SSTs through increased upwelling and evaporation. During the last few weeks this wind pattern disappeared and an enhanced southerly flow of moist tropical air typical of above-normal seasons became established. Associated with this evolution, the moist static stability has decreased, the African Easterly Jet has shifted to well north of normal, the easterly trade winds have weakened, and portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic have warmed to more than 0.5oC above average. 3. Uncertainties in the Outlook There are two unrelated sources of uncertainty in this forecast. The first is whether or not La Niña will develop and if so, how strong it will become. Even with ENSO-neutral conditions, the combination of an active hurricane era with the ongoing La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection and winds produces a very high probability of an above-normal season. The development of La Niña increases the probability for a hyperactive season with activity in the upper end of the predicted range. The second source of uncertainty is whether conditions over the eastern tropical Atlantic will continue to become increasingly conducive for hurricane formation. Atmospheric conditions in that region are already consistent with other above-normal seasons, and the associated SSTs have returned to above-average in many areas. However, the latest Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast from the NOAA Environmental Monitoring Center indicates a continuation during ASO of near-average temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic, suggesting atmospheric conditions might be slightly less conducive to hurricane formation than current trends indicate. CAUTIONARY NOTES 1) It is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, residents and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always maintain hurricane preparedness efforts regardless of the overall seasonal outlook. 2) Far more damage can be done by one major hurricane hitting a heavily populated area than by several hurricanes hitting sparsely populated areas. Therefore, hurricane-spawned disasters can occur even in years with near-normal or below-normal levels of activity. Examples of years with near-normal activity that featured extensive hurricane damage and numerous fatalities include 1960 (Hurricane Donna), 1979 (Hurricanes David and Frederic), and 1985 (Hurricanes Elena, Gloria and Juan). Moreover, the nation's second most damaging hurricane, Andrew in 1992, occurred during a season with otherwise below normal activity. NOAA FORECASTERS Climate Prediction Center Dr. Gerald Bell, Meteorologist; Gerry.Bell@noaa.gov Dr. Kingste Mo, Meteorologist; Kingste.Mo@noaa.gov National Hurricane Center Eric Blake, Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake@noaa.gov Dr. Christopher Landsea, Meteorologist; Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov Dr. Richard Pasch, Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch@noaa.gov Hurricane Research Division Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Todd Kimberlain, Meteorologist; Todd Kimberlain@noaa.gov REFERENCES Bell, G. D., and M. Chelliah, 2006: Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multi-decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate. 19, 590-612. Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2004: The 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Climate Perspective. State of the Climate in 2003. A. M. Waple and J. H. Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, S1-S68. Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2005: The 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Climate Perspective. State of the Climate in 2004. A. M. Waple and J. H. Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, S1-S68. Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2006: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Climate Perspective. State of the Climate in 2005. A. M. Waple and J. H. Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, S1-S78. Bell, G. D., and Co-authors 2007: The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Climate Perspective. State of the Climate in 2006. A. M. Waple and J. H. Lawrimore, Eds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, S1-S78. Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray, 2001: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, 474-479. Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency: Part I: El Niño and 30-mb quasi-bienniel oscillation influences. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1649-1668.

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Dean Slams Mexico

Deans Curerent Position:

Dean's, current storm position as of Aug 22 - 00:00 UTC. Dean is now a Category 1 Hurricane and may re-strengthen with maximum winds currently of 80 mph and a pressure of 970 mb, tracking Latitude: 19.7 Longitude: -92.2.

Weather Bouy - 42055 just north of Dean reports as of Aug 22 - 00:50 UTC. Temperature: 85.3°F. Wind: NNE at 36 mph gusting to 45. Pressure: 1005.2 mb. Wave Height: 8 ft . This storm still has some power remaining in it. Matter of fact Weather Bouy 42056 just of the coast of Cozumel reports as of Aug 22 - 00:50 UTC. Temperature: 83.8°F. Dewpoint: 77.4°F. Wind: ESE at 22 mph gusting to 27, Pressure: 1011.6 mb, Wave Height: 8 ft. Still 8ft SWHs!

According to Hurricaneville "The storm became a hurricane as of the 5:00 AM EDT Advisory on Thursday morning. With its latest intensification, Dean became the tenth most powerful storm ever in the Atlantic ahead of Hurricane Janet (1955) and Hurricane Isabel (2003), and right behind Hurricane Ivan (2004). It is also the third strongest hurricane to make landfall in North America behind Hurricane Gilbert and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. The forecast track has the storm continuing across the Yucatan over the next days, and possibly emerging into the Bay of Campeche region of the Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and going into Wednesday as a Category Two Hurricane with 100 mph winds. Forecasted rainfall amounts for the affected areas are expected to range at least between 5 to 10 inches with some locales getting up to 20 inches over Southern and Central Mexico as well as Guatemala. On top of that, storm surge levels could go as high as 6 to 8 feet to the north of the potential landfall point within the Hurricane Warning area."

Beau's Weather Blog has a play by play of some of the more dramatic images of Hurricane Dean. Its well worth the time to take a look.

According to FEMA's National Situation Report on Dean states;

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico:

Category five hurricane Dean makes landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

At 5:00 am EDT, August 21, 2007 the center of Hurricane Dean was located about 35 miles east-northeast of Chetumal, Mexico and about 195 miles east-southeast of Campeche, Mexico. Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected today and tonight when the center will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and likely reach the southern Bay of Campeche.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph, with higher gusts. Dean is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Although some weakening is forecast as Dean crosses the Yucatan peninsula, Dean is expected to maintain hurricane strength throughout the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

The hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum central pressure of 906 mb (26.75 inches) just before landfall.

Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves is possible near and to the north of where Dean made landfall along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and northern Honduras with maximum amounts up to 20 inches.

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Dean tracking toward Mexico

According to forecasters at the NHC "The Yucatan Peninsula and/or northern Belize look to be the affected areas for now. The track could change somewhat so its a little early to say if a specific area will get the brunt of the strongest winds." While the storm has left a wake of damage in the Caribbean..

Dean's current storm position as of Aug 20 - 21:00 UTC. Dean is now a Category 4 Hurricane and nearing Cat 5 strength, as we go to blog, with maximum winds of 150 mph and a pressure of 918 mb, Latitude: 18.2 Longitude: -84.2.. Weather Bouy 42056 just off the coast of Cancun as of Aug 20 - 22:50 UTC, is reporting; Temperature: 81.1°F, Dewpoint: 78.8°F, Wind: ENE at 49 mph gusting to 67, Wave Height: 31 ft. Interesting enough that SANF1 - Weather Buoy just off the West Keys is reporting as of Aug 20 - 23:00 UTC, Temperature: 85.5°F, Wind: E at 29 mph, gusting to 32, Pressure: 1015.3 mb. Just to show you the impact of the storm.

It is expected to hit the Yucatan Peninsula early tuesday morning.

Mexico braces itself for Hurricane Dean

The hurricane has battered Jamaica - this is a scene from Kingston, the capital - but there are fears that Mexico and the Cayman Islands could bear the brunt of the storm The first hurricane of the Atlantic storm season skirted past the Cayman Islands today and raced on towards Mexico's Caribbean coast after battering Jamaica with winds of up to 150 mph overnight. With the storm still gaining in intensity as it loops westwards across the Caribbean, it had looked like disaster could be looming for the low-lying British tax haven. But in the event the eye of the storm passed some 100 miles south of the islands and officials said that the strongest wind gusts were measured at just 57mph (92kph). The Cayman Islands government announced that the territory had "been spared the brunt of Hurricane Dean". The storm has killed at least eight people as it has moved across the Caribbean, although Jamaica also managed to avoid its most deadly effects as the storm barrelled along the island's southern coast last night. The Jamaican capital, Kingston, was hit by hurricane-force winds which downed power lines, ripped off roofs and blocked roads with debris before spiralling off into the Caribbean in the early hours. But there were no reported deaths and thousands of holidaymakers – including many Britons who took refuge in the most solid buildings – emerged unscathed. "I think the feeling around here appears to be more of relief than anything else," said Richard Susskind, a Times law columnist who spent the night holed up with his family in a conference centre in a resort near Montego Bay. "Dawn is beginning to break and although the roads are completely covered in debris from the trees, there is no sign of any radical damage." Meanwhile, the Foreign Office updated its travel advice for the region and issued a warning to British tourists not to go to the Central American country of Belize, which lies under Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and is now firmly in Dean's sights. American forecasters said that the storm was projected to become a potentially catastrophic Category Five storm, packing sustained winds of 160mph, as it passes across the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to hit the Yucatan peninsula, a tourist haven, and Belize tomorrow. "Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible in during the next 24 hours," the US National Hurricane Centre reported today. "Dean has the potential to become a Category Five hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean sea on Monday - like Gilbert in 1988 and Wilma in 2005." That reference to the two most intense storms ever recorded in the Atlantic basin – which between them killed more than 400 people – was guaranteed to strike fear across the region. Mexico was evacuating some 90,000 tourists from Cancun and other islands of the "Mayan Riviera," as well as some 13,000 workers on more than 140 of its oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Travellers hoping to catch one of the last flights out of the Mexican resort of Cancun before Hurricane Dean's arrival were camped out at the city's airport this morning, sleeping on the terminal floors. Cancun was ravaged by Hurricane Wilma two years ago – when thousands of tourists were cooped up for days in cramped and unhygienic shelters – and since then the tourist industry has simply spread to the south. This time, the storm appears to be taking aim at one of the newer resorts – Majahual, about 150 miles (250 km) to the south. Florida Volynskaya, 24, from Baltimore, Maryland, was among those lying on the floor at Cancun airport. "We just wanted to get out anywhere," she said. "We really didn’t want to be in a shelter." In Texas, Governor Rick Perry has ordered elderly people in the Rio Grande Valley region to be evacuated in case Dean’s track takes it in a more northerly direction, which could put it over the southern tip of Texas by Thursday. As of 1200 GMT, Dean was centred about 440 miles (710km) east of Belize City and travelling west at about 21 mph (33 kph), the National Hurricane Centre said. In Jamaica, Portia Simpson Miller, the Prime Minister, announced a one-month state of emergency, giving security forces wider powers to deal with looters. Ms Miller also suggested that national elections scheduled for August 27 should be delayed, appealing to her political opponents to "put their differences aside". The hurricane whipped up giant surf around the Jamaican coast and dumped inches of rain on the island. Roads were blocked by fallen trees and flooded in the eastern parts of the island, with power cuts affecting thousands of homes. "The sea has dumped debris onto the roads," said Bobby Montague, the Portland parish mayor, as the storm surged by. Jamaica’s airports have been shut since Saturday, and more than 4,500 people have packed into hundreds of shelters opened up by the government around the island amid bitter memories of Hurricane Ivan which killed 17 people and destroyed thousands of homes in 2004. Ms Miller called on all off-duty police officers, firefighters and prison warders to report for work, while electricity was turned off on the national grid as a safety measure. The Jamaica Public Service Company said more than 135,000 customers were without power. In Cuba, just to the north of Jamaica, authorities had evacuated some 150,000 people from six eastern provinces to save them from possible flooding. Hurricane Dean earlier brushed past Haiti, one of the world’s poorest countries, lashing it with heavy rain and gale-force winds. Two people were killed in Haiti’s southeastern town of Moron and southern Tiburon, Haitian officials said, and more than 1,000 people evacuated from low-lying areas. Two people were also killed in the French territory of Martinique, while authorities in the Dominican Republic, where a 16-year-old boy was killed when he was swept away by huge waves, gave warning of the danger of landslides. Lets take a look at Hurricane from space. More Jamaica footage! Cancun beach 12 hours before Dean A note for our Aussie readers... Warning: Dangerous surf expected 20 August 2007 A severe weather warning has been issued for the Sunshine Coast tonight and tomorrow, with people warned to stay clear of the open ocean. The Bureau of Meteorology said a low was developing near Fraser Island and is expected to deepen and move south, just to the east of Brisbane. Large seas are likely to develop overnight and affect the Gold Coast at first, before extending to the Sunshine Coast by late Tuesday. The State Emergency Service warned people in affected areas to stay away from the open ocean, as large waves and rip currents may develop. Gale-force winds are also expected, with damaging gusts up to 90kmh likely in exposed areas of the Gold Coast early tomorrow morning and up towards Fraser Island by late in the day. An updated warning is expected this evening. For further information, go to the Bureau of Meteorology website. RS

Dean Slams Jamaica

By HOWARD CAMPBELL

The Associated Press
Sunday, August 19, 2007; 8:05 PM

KINGSTON, Jamaica -- Hurricane Dean pummeled Jamaica with gusting winds and torrential rains Sunday after the prime minister made a last-minute plea for residents to abandon their homes and head for shelter. Many residents ignored the call, however, while tourists holed up in resorts with hurricane-proof walls.

Dean, which had already killed eight people on its destructive march across the Caribbean, triggered evacuation calls from the Cayman Islands to Texas, and forced the Space Shuttle to cut short its mission. Cruise ships changed course to avoid the storm, but some tourists in Jamaica could not get away before the island closed its airports late Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center said the first hurricane of the Atlantic season was projected to reach a Category 5 classification with sustained winds of 160 mph before crashing into the Cayman Islands on Monday and Mexico's Yucatan peninsula after that. The Mexican mainland or Texas could be hit later.

Hurricane-force winds began lashing Jamaica on Sunday afternoon, said meteorologist Rebecca Waddington at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Forecasters said Jamaica would take a near-direct hit with Dean's eye passing just to the south later Sunday night.

The government set up more than 1,000 shelters in converted schools, churches and the indoor national sports arena. Authorities urged people to take cover from the storm, which had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and was expected to dump up to 20 inches of rain on the island.

But only 47 shelters were occupied as the storm began hitting, said Cecil Bailey of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.

"For the last time, I'm asking you to leave or you will be in danger," Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller urged residents earlier as the storm loomed offshore.

As of 8 p.m. Sunday, Dean was located 70 miles west-southwest of Kingston and was traveling west at 20 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

George Lee, mayor of the Portmore community near the capital Kingston, said appeals to evacuate had gone unheeded. Some islanders said they were afraid for their belongings if they moved to shelters.

"Too much crime in Kingston. I'm not leaving my home," Paul Lyn said in Port Royal, east of Kingston.

Assistant Commissioner of Police Linval Bailey said police were sent to commercial districts to prevent looting and curfews were imposed until Monday evening. Police got into a shootout with looters at a shopping center in the central Jamaican parish of Clarendon, but no one was hurt, Constable Cheree Greaves said.

Authorities also cut power on the island to prevent damage to the electrical infrastructure.

Many tourists who did not get flights out took shelter at places like Sandals Whitehouse, a resort that has buildings capable of withstanding a powerful storm.

Trinice Tyler, a postal worker from Lake Elsinore, Calif., said she would weather the storm there "on my knees praying."

"I'm celebrating my 40th birthday today, and it's going to be a birthday to remember," she said. "I have mixed emotions. It's exciting, but I'm nervous. Am I going to make it home?"

Earlier in the day, fishermen hauled their skiffs inland and cruise ships changed their course to avoid the storm. Local media reported that 17 fisherman were stranded on the Middle Keys, small islands about 90 miles south of Jamaica. The Jamaica Defense Force advised them to break the padlocks off a building to seek shelter, Nationwide News Network reported.

In Galveston, Texas, residents remembered the 2005 Hurricane Rita evacuation when motorists from the coast ran into residents fleeing Houston, clogging evacuation routes for miles. Officials say they've worked out the kinks in the system, but many Galveston residents were skeptical.

"I've talked to a lot of people about this," said Chuck Lee, a resident. "They'd rather die in their homes than die in their cars on some highway."

In the Cayman Islands, tourists were ordered to board shuttle buses for the airport. Hundreds of frantic vacationers lined up at ticket counters for special flights home, and many slept on the airport floor. Cayman Islands Gov. Stuart Jack said all but 1,500 tourists were evacuated from the British territory by Sunday afternoon.

"It's kind of spooky," said George Mitchell, of Detroit, who missed his flight out. "We don't know what to do or where to go. It freaks you out."

In Mexico, tourists also streamed out of resorts on Yucatan peninsula and formed long lines at the airport to try to fly home. Twelve empty planes arrived Sunday to move travelers out, said airport spokesman Eduardo Rivadeneira. The state government set up 530 shelters with a capacity of 73,000 people.

Governments in Central America declared themselves on alert for the secondary effects of Dean, whose outer bands were already dumping rain and whipping up surf on their Caribbean coastlines.

In Nicaragua, a 4-year-old girl died when a boat she was on sank Saturday night amid high winds and waves in the Kukra River, El Nuevo Diario newspaper reported Sunday.

The hurricane created massive waves and surges high as 20 feet as it passed the Dominican Republic on Saturday, flooding roads and drowning a boy. At least two people were killed and about 150 homes were destroyed in Haiti, emergency officials said.

___

Associated Press writers Stevenson Jacobs in George Town, Cayman Islands; Michael Melia in San Juan, Puerto Rico; Evens Sanon in Port-au-Prince, Haiti; Lisa Orkin Emmanuel in Miami; and Carley Petesch in New York contributed to this report.

Deans Current Track



Current Storm Position as of Aug 20 - 00:00 UTC Category 4 Hurricane
Maximum winds of 145 mph and a pressure of 930 mb Latitude: 17.5
Longitude: -77.8

This is a recording of the Jamaican Prime Minister to the Jamaican people pre-strike.




Keep Posted...
RS

Dean Appproaches Jamaica

Dean's still a Category 4 storm is posed to strike Jamaica.

Its current storm position as of Aug 19 - 12:00 UTC is Lat 17.0 N/Long 75.1 W or about 130 miles/210km east southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
Maximum winds of 145 mph and a pressure of 926mb..27.34 inches.

Dean's outer bands have reach the Island and the Jamaican government urged people to flee low-lying and landslide-prone areas, put troops and police on alert and bussed people to evacuation centers. (see story).

According to The Weather Channel, "as Hurricane Dean heads west-northwest, the northern end of its eyewall will likely strike a destructive blow to Jamaica later this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be in the 5 to 10 inch range with some areas receiving as much as 20 inches. The heavy rains will lead to life-threatening mudslides.

Dean could be the strongest hurricane to strike Jamaica since 1950: stronger than Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 which was a category three when it crossed the island from end to end."

(Sat photo by GOES EAST)

Where will Dean go after Jamaica? Senior Director of Weather Communications for the Weather Channel discusses this on the Weather Channel Blog.



Super Typhoon SEPAT struck China's coase killing 15 and forcing the evacuation of 90,ooo.




We'll keep you posted!

RS

Hurricane Dean

Its going to be a interesting weekend, especially with Hurricane Dean, now a CAT 4 on the move. We are going to follow the storm straight through the weekend. To top that we are going to tacking this storm with guiWeather by Google. The image on the left if Dean's projected path.

As we went to blog, Hurricane Dean is currently a Category 4 Hurricane, with maximum winds of 150 mph and a pressure of 930 mb, .27.46 inches. Dean was 700 miles, 1125 km east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 239 miles, 390km, south of San Juan, Puerto rico, moving west at about 18 mph (30 kph) at Latitude: 15.0 N, Longitude: -66.7 W. The National Hurricane Center predicted Dean may grow to a Category 5 storm the highest level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, with 150 mph (240 kph) winds as it tracks across Jamaica to the Gulf, home to a third of U.S. domestic crude oil and 15 percent of natural gas production. Dean is following almost the same path as Hurricane Rita, though some at the NHC speculate that Dean will weaken some as it approaches the US Gulf.



Aug 18 - 05:50 UTC - Weather buoy- 42059 (Image above), which lies in the direct path of Dean reported currently, Temperature: 81°F, Dewpoint: 75°F. Wind: NNE at 45 mph gusting to 54. Pressure: 999 mb. Wave Height: 26 ft .. Now remember just because the buoy is reporting waves at 26ft does not mean that these waves are not higher on average.


(Sat Photo GOES 1 Hurricane Dean)

According to press reports,

"Dean, the first hurricane of what is expected to be an above-average Atlantic season, lifted the roof off the pediatric wing at Victoria Hospital in St Lucia's capital, Castries, but patients had already been moved, officials said.

Heraldine Rock, an ex-government minister in the former British colony of 170,000 people, said the storm ripped roofs off houses and damaged at least two banana plantations.

"In one village, telephone and power lines are down, they're strewn all over the road, trees are uprooted and are blocking the roads," she said. "In another village, a landslide has been reported, cutting off any access to the airport."

Deputy Prime Minister Leonard Montoute said at least two people were injured when a tree fell on their house.

"I'm told that the coastal areas have taken a severe battering, there's debris all over Castries in the capital and flood waters on the roads," he said.

On neighbouring Martinique, an elderly man died of a heart attack during the storm and six people were injured, according to France's state office for overseas territories. Electricity company EDF said 95 per cent of homes were without power."

(Sat Photo by QuikSCAT of Hurricane Dean)

In this video shot on Antigua, Hurricane Dean's eye was some 100 miles away, but watch the wave action.



And then we have Dominica...



Here is some AP footage of Dean blowing through the eastern Caribbean Islands of St. Lucia and Martinique.



Let's not forget Super Typhoon SEPAT!






This Hurricane Dean has potential to cause some real damage along the Gulf Coast, hope we are prepared this time. Just a interesting note in hurricane history. Maybe with a little luck, Hurricane Dean will turn and follow the same track as its 1989 name sake "Hurricane Dean" did. So keep posted... Enjoy your weekend!

RS

Three new radars to boost weather warning system

Three new radars to boost weather warning system

A new radar system will make predicting severe weather easier in the Waikato, the MetService says.

The Government has approved funding for three new radars around the North Island. The first will be installed at New Plymouth airport next June.

MetService spokesman Bob McDavitt said the new radars would give them more accurate and faster information about pending weather patterns.

The other two radars will be installed in Gisborne and the Bay of Plenty. Specific sites and dates have not yet been confirmed but they will be installed within the next three years.

The radars will cost about $10 million.

Mr McDavitt said severe thunderstorms caused significant damage very quickly, but the new radars would enable smaller and isolated towns to get plenty of warning before storms hit.

Radars were the only way to track the path and progress of tornadoes and thunderstorms.

"You could get a text about a hail storm about to come," he said. "Then you can adjust your activities to meet the message. You wouldn't drive your car down to the supermarket then."

Mr McDavitt said having more radars would have been useful during the recent Taranaki tornadoes.

"We could have told people accurately when they would clear. There would have been more information to give."

The North Island now has two radars - one in Auckland and one in Wellington.

These radars cover only 25 per cent of the North Island. The three new radars will increase coverage to 80 per cent.

"It will make weather warnings more accurate. We'll be able to warn civil defence (units) if evacuations need to be made."

The regional council Environment Waikato emergency management officer Adam Munro said the radar in Taranaki "will greatly enhance EW's existing flood warning capability, by enabling the real time tracking and monitoring of severe weather systems coming into the Waikato".

Mr McDavitt expected the technology to be fully operational within 10 years and hoped to get "everything in place" for the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

Weather Story

Hurricane Dean



Tropical Depression Erin

Erin Weakens to Tropical Depression; Torrential Rain Heads Toward Flood-Weary Parts of Texas

By ELIZABETH WHITE

The Associated Press

CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas

Tropical Storm Erin made landfall Thursday as a tropical depression, bringing torrential downpours to Houston before aiming at flood-weary central Texas.

One person was killed and another was injured when a waterlogged roof collapsed at a storage unit at a Houston grocery store, Houston Fire Chief Omero Longoria said.

Erin came ashore at about 7 a.m. at Copano Bay, about 25 miles northeast of Corpus Christi.

"We're very fortunate. We're always prepared for the worst and we pray that we're wrong," said Corpus Christi Fire Department Deputy Chief Michael Hernandez. "For the most part it looks like we dodged a bullet." (See Storm Erin Deluges Houston)

Super Typhoon SEPAT





RS

UPDATE - Dean Upgraded to Hurricane

Hurricane Dean could threaten Gulf of Mexico

Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:36PM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean, which could strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane over the next few days, will likely cross the islands of the eastern Caribbean on Friday and could threaten the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Erin produced heavy rains over portions of Texas as it weakened after moving inland over the south Texas coast this morning.

The energy market is watching the weather models to see if Dean will enter the Gulf of Mexico and where it could disrupt the region's oil and natural gas facilities, which account for roughly a third of U.S. oil production.

The NHC issued hurricane warnings for the Lesser Antilles islands of Dominica and St Lucia. A hurricane warning means the NHC expects a hurricane to strike the warning area within 24 hours.

At 11 a.m. EDT, the center of Dean was located about 350 miles east of Barbados and about 455 miles east of Martinique.

Dean was moving quickly toward the west at near 23 miles per hour. This would put the center of the hurricane near the Lesser Antilles, which extend south from the Virgin Islands to Trinidad and Tobago, on Friday morning.

Dean is packing maximum sustained winds near 90 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The NHC forecast Dean will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane (winds 96-110 mph) within 12 hours, a Category 3 hurricane (winds 111-130 mph) in about 24 hours and a Category 4 hurricane (winds of 131-155 mph) in three to four days.

In five days however, the NHC expects the storm to weaken back to Category 1 strength (winds 74-95 mph) after moving inland over the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

The seven major weather models were mixed on Dean's forecast track. Two show Dean in the Gulf of Mexico in five days. Three, including the NHC model, show Dean in the Yucatan in five days. Two show Dean in Belize or Honduras in five days.

The weather models only look out about five days. Beyond that, the forecasters say it is too soon to say whether the storm, which is still in the Atlantic Ocean, will enter the Gulf of Mexico.

If the storm crosses the Yucatan and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, it might disrupt operations in the Cantarell Complex of Mexican oil fields beneath the Bay of Campeche in addition to the U.S. facilities in the northern Gulf.

The Cantarell Complex is one of the most productive oil fields in the world, supplying about two thirds of Mexico's crude oil output.

The NHC will issue another advisory on Dean at 2 p.m.

ERIN DOWNGRADED

Erin made landfall near Lamar, Texas and weakened to a tropical depression Thursday morning.

The center of Erin was located about 55 miles north-northwest of Corpus Christi, the NHC said in an advisory released before 11 a.m.

The depression was moving northwest at near 15 mph, while its maximum sustained winds declined to 35 mph.

The NHC said it would not issue additional advisories on Erin.

UPDATE: On Tropical Storm Erin

ERIN CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST NEAR LAMAR AND IS NOW MOVING FATHER
INLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION
STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WHICH IS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS
TIME.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 13 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

RS