Hurricane Detection Gains an Ally

Hurricane Detection Gains an Ally
By Joshua Hill

Friday, November 16, 2007

Weather is tough to predict at the best of times, with Mother Nature not necessarily bringing the human need to know what clothes to wear in to her equations. But it gets even trickier when trying to predict hurricanes.

The 2005 hurricane season was a notable time for meteorologists, as they witnessed quickly intensifying tropical depressions turn in to massive hurricanes in the blink of an eye. Sadly, a similar event happened with Hurricane Humberto making the leap from depression to category one hurricane in less than 24 hours.

“It made the transition from tropical depression to hurricane within 24 hours right before landfall. It was a record breaker,” says NASA atmospheric scientist Robbie Hood.

No one knows if this is a trend that will continue, or just a few freak turns of climate.

“Forecasting intensity is one of the biggest problems we have right now with hurricanes,” says Hood. But Hood and her team of researchers at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center are making strides toward solving that problem with a new invention called HIRAD, short for Hurricane Imaging Radiometer.

To construct a proper computer model to predict the outcome of a hurricane, one needs to be able to measure wind speeds at the base of the storm. In particular, winds close to the eye of the storm, and in the eye wall. But, naturally, that close to the frothing torrent of wind, is not an easy place to acquire data.

This is where HIRAD comes in to the picture. Designed to operate from an airplane or satellite, “HIRAD will see from above through a hurricane’s heaviest rains and thickest clouds to measure the intense winds at the surface of the ocean,” says Hood.

“Strong winds sweep and swirl across ocean waves, whipping up foamy white froth,” explains Hood. “HIRAD measures microwave radiation naturally emitted by this froth; the stronger the winds, the more froth, and the more microwave radiation.”

Also, HIRAD measures a wider swath of the ocean, meaning that there will be less passes to make, and the information will be acquired quicker. It is small, lightweight and doesn’t use much energy. No moving parts, inexpensive and with the potential to be mounted in a satellite, makes HIRAD a perfect companion to weather predictors.

HIRAD is gaining popularity, and it is hoped it will make its first trial run in the hurricane season of 2009. But funding is vital, for the progression of HRIAD from prototype to working tool. It will need to pass the 2009 trial run, and hopefully with funding, be installed upon a satellite.

“When you fly an instrument on a satellite, it helps everybody on the globe,” she says. “It improves forecasting around the world, for countries that don’t have the ground-based radar and aircraft instruments larger countries have.”

Karen Stephens, HIRAD Project Manager, adds, “In the post-Katrina era, it is especially satisfying to be working on something so immediately beneficial and possibly life-saving.”

MARITIME NOTES

Salvage of Den Den begins officially

By Team Mangalorean
Photographs: Rajesh Shetty

MANGALORE, November 15, 2007: The Gulf based Offshore Supply Vessel (OSV) Al-Haml arrived in Mangalore today and proceeded directly to the spot where the Eritrean freighter M.V. Den Den lays on its side since June 23. The arrival of the vessel actually heralds the beginning of the salvage operations.

Al-Haml carries high profile equipments used in such complicated salvage and rescueoperations that included drilling and diving equipments. The OSV is also equipped with three tanks each having 36 cubic metre space which will come handy for emptying fuel tanks of the Den Den. The OSV also carries on board pollution control equipment.

The salvage team which has arrived from Singapore had a closer look at the freighter and has carried out strength determination tests on the hull where it will attach a Hot Tap to ciphon the fuel of the sunken ship. There is yet another support team waiting for helping the onboard team.

The owners of the ship and the government of Eritrea has also given its permission for the salvage which had been secured from the diplomatic channels. The customs has also permitted the retrieval of fuel from the tanks of the sunken ship. The Karnataka State Pollution Control local unit has been monitoring the salvage operation for any spillage of oil that could harm the marine life.

CYCLONE SIDR UPDATE

Situation Report by UN OCHA:

I. Situation in Bangladesh

1. Cyclone Sidr (Category IV) hit Bangladesh on the evening of 15 November. The cyclone, originating from a depression over the Bay of Bengal on 11 November, hit offshore islands at 1830 hours and made landfall across the southern coast from Cox's Bazaar toward the Satkhira districts at 2030 hours local time. Heavy rains were experienced throughout the country, including the capital Dhaka. The first area hit by Cyclone Sidr was Hiron Point and part of the mangrove forest Sundarbans in Bagerhat and Dublar Char Island in Barguna. According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Cyclone Sidr had a radius of 500 kilometres with the eye of the storm 74 kilometres wide and wind speeds reaching between 220-240 kilometres per hour. The storm caused extensive damage, in particular in the south-western districts, as it moved north into central Bangladesh and was downgraded to a Category II tropical storm. The weather is currently calm.

2. Official reports indicate that the initial death toll is 2,027 people, with 1,451 injured and 454 missing. These figures are expected to increase significantly as the need assessments are completed and will be reported on 19 November. Reports indicate that over 27 million people from 25 districts were affected by the severe cyclonic storms. The 12 hardest hit districts were Bagerhat, Patuakhali, Barguna, Pirojpur, Barisal, Jhalkhati, Bhola, Mandaripur, Gopalgonj, Shariatpur, Khulna and Satkhira. Many structures have been damaged or destroyed, damage to crops is extensive and roads are damaged or blocked by debris. The cyclone caused severe reduction in power production, resulting in a near countrywide blackout for over 36 hours, further disruptions to telecommunications and water supply.

3. Preliminary assessments indicate that emergency needs should be concentrated on non-food items, food aid, nutrition, water and sanitation, shelter and disease surveillance. The longer term perspective calls for rehabilitation of livelihood, infrastructure, health and educational services and increased shelter capacity.

II. National Response in Bangladesh

4. To date, the Chief Adviser has allocated 100 million taka for relief and house construction in eleven districts. The Deputy Commissioners are procuring and collecting sufficient amount of dry food to respond to the current situation. The Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) has allocated 4,000 metric tonnes of rice, 5,000 tents, 17,000 blankets and 30 million taka as gratuitous relief grants, to date. A special fund was established allocating 350 million taka for housing construction grants. 13,000 bundles of corrugated iron sheets are ready for immediate distribution. The Bangladesh Armed Forces Division deployed several aircrafts and a number of helicopters. Six Bangladesh Navy ships are conducting rescue, evacuation, relief and reconnaissance operations in the worst storm affected areas. Several central control rooms of different GoB agencies at national, district and upazila levels have been active round the clock since the first cyclone warning was issued. 732 medical teams are working in the affected areas.

5. The Government of Bangladesh (GoB) early warning and preparedness systems were activated prior to the cyclone hitting landfall, which had a significant mitigating effect in this emergency. Disaster preparedness measures included the evacuation of approximately 3.2 million people from along the coastline of 15 districts to safe places. Alarms were raised and relief and rescue items were stockpiled.

6. The Government of Bangladesh called an immediate meeting of the Disaster and Emergency Response group (DER) on 15 November, consisting of representatives from the GoB, United Nations, Donors, national and international NGOs. The GoB emphasized that the humanitarian community should coordinate closely with central and local Bangladesh authorities. A follow up meeting was held on 18 November, where many donors pledged support to the GoB. The next DER meeting will be held on 22 November.

III. International Response in Bangladesh

7. The UN Country Team, IFRC, and NGOs, including Save the Children, World Vision International, CARE, Caritas, OXFAM, Islamic Relief, ACT, Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA), Muslim Aid, and Plan, provided support to the Government of Bangladesh through extensive emergency response precautions, including mobilizing in-country staff and pre-positioned relief stocks across southern Bangladesh.

8. Under the coordination of the DER, a United Nations team of 12 experts left Dhaka to assist with assessment in affected areas. The United Nations is distributing 208 tonnes of high-energy biscuits to assist an estimated 850,000 cyclone affected people. 240,000 packets of water purifying powder are reaching 48,000 families. Shelter materials (thick polyesters) will also be distributed to 18,000 households whose houses were destroyed by the storms. Partners will start distribution of dry food (flattened rice and molasses) to 70,000 affected families from 18 November. Medical officers are available to assist the GoB response, including four to assist in coordinating the central response. USD 50,000 was made available for water and supplies and transportation. More relief will be made available following initial determination of needs.

9. The United Nations Disaster Management Team (UN DMT) met on 16 November to coordinate response and assessment and take early stock of the situation. A mission from UN OCHA Regional Office arrived in Dhaka on 17 November to assist with the Central Emergency Relief Fund (CERF) process and support the UN RC with coordination. UN Heads of Agencies go on mission to the worst affected districts to assess the extent of damage on 19 November.

10. IFRC launched a preliminary emergency appeal on 16 November for US$ 3.5 million in cash, kind, or services to support the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society to assist 235,000 beneficiaries for a period of 9 months.

11. Several donors, including the European Union, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland United Kingdom, United States of America, have pledged to assist the affected population of Bangladesh. More detailed information is expected to be provided on 19 November. Number of Deads: 2027 persons Number of Injured persons: 1451 persons Number of Evacuated persons: 650 000 persons Infected: persons

RS

2008 Severe Storm Conference's and Situation Updates

National Hurricane Conference
March 31-April 4
The Rosen Centre Hotel
Orlando, FL

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific.

In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

The 2008 National Storm Conference
Saturday, March 8, 2008
The Colleyville Center
Colleyville, Texas

The TESSA National Storm Conference is free and open to the public. Registration is not required, but arrive early, seating is limited to 500.

Directions, Lodging and Suggested Dining for the 2008 Conference
Conference Sponsorship and Vendor Opportunities

ARLINGTON, Texas -The Texas Severe Storms Association (TESSA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will collaborate again for the National Storm Conference on March 8, 2008 at the Colleyville Center in Colleyville, Texas. Speakers will deliver presentations on severe weather safety, storm spotter training and in-depth discussions on supercell and tornado meteorology.

National Severe Weather Workshop 2008
March 6-8 2008
Norman, Oklahoma

A national forum for academia, emergency management, media, and NOAA to exchange information and techniques for public safety during severe weather.

2008 National Storm Chaser's Convention
The Radisson Southeast
February 15-17 2007
Denver, CO

You just got ot go to this one!


CYCLONE SIDR UPDATE

BANGLADESH - More than 2,000 people are now known to have died after powerful cyclone Sidr ripped through southern and central Bangladesh. The toll was expected to rise. Rescuers are trying to reach hundreds of thousands of survivors but debris and floods are hampering their efforts. Cyclone Sidr destroyed or damaged tens of thousands of homes, brought down power lines and wiped out vital crops. In many areas, 95% of rice which was awaiting harvest has been destroyed, and shrimp farms and other crops simply washed away. A huge relief operation is under way but the true extent of the destruction is only now emerging. "We are expecting that thousands of dead bodies may be found within a few days. We have not been able to collect information about casualties in many remote and impassable places due to the disruption to communications."

This comes only a few months after floods devastated the northern part of the country. The storm triggered 5m (16ft) tidal surges in many of the affected districts. Rivers flowing into the Bay of Bengal were said to be swollen and rising. At least 150 fishing boats in the Bay of Bengal have failed to return to shore. Hundreds of fishermen are feared missing. Authorities have been struggling to get food, medicine, tents and blankets to the affected areas. Cyclone Sidr is

THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE STORM TO HIT THE COUNTRY IN MORE THAN A DECADE.

Bangladesh said Saturday it feared thousands of corpses were littering its southern coast. The army and relief workers were battling to reach the worst-hit districts, where most villages have been flattened. Every one of Jhalokati’s 554 villages has been badly hit. Bangladesh’s vast Sunderbans mangrove forest, home to the endangered Royal Bengal tiger, bore the brunt of the deadly cyclone that smashed into the country, likely killing wildlife. “The winds have twisted the mangrove by flattening thousands of trees."

The strong tidal surge could have killed wildlife. “I am concerned that thousands of deers and some tigers would have been washed into the rivers by the surge and might have died.”

UPDATE: COSCO BUSAN CLEAN UP

SAN FRANCISCO - The most recent information about the clean up is as follows:

Total personnel employed: 1,069
Total gallons discharged: 58,000
Total gallons of oil recovered to date: approximately 16,419
Total gallons evaporated: approximately 4,060
Total birds captured: 1,023
Total dead birds: 1,255
Shoreline cleanup teams: 17
Shoreline assessment teams: 6
Feet of boom laid out: 18,250
Number of contracted aircraft: 1

RS

Combat Weathermen

Combat Weathermen

From Air Force News Service

by Chief Master Sgt. Gary Emery

HURLBURT FIELD, Fla. -- Slashing through Burmese jungles with Maj. Gen. Orde Wingate’s Chindits; hunkering down far above the DMZ in North Vietnam; infiltrating into Northern Iraq to ensure the success of a thousand-man airborne jump -- not the average day at the office for most weather forecasters.

But those missions and many more have been business as usual since 1942 for the Air Force special operations weather teams assigned of the 10th Combat Weather Squadron here.

The battle-trained meteorologists of special operations weather have been at the tip of the spear for more than 60 years. They have deploying with other special operators from every branch of the armed forces. They provide combatant commanders with the weather data and analysis they need to plan and execute missions at the tactical, operational and strategic levels of war.

Elite members of the Air Force Battlefield Airman program, special operations weathermen receive specialized training far beyond that of other meteorologists, squadron director of operations Maj. Don Shannon said.

“Our guys have first gone through the normal weather training and served in an operational weather squadron before they can volunteer for SOWT,” he said.

Major Shannon said, “We typically work with special operations forces from the U.S. Army Special Operations Command, but because of the unique capability we provide, we also work with special operations teams from the other services. Because of the types of individuals we team with, we undergo much of the specialized training they do so we can keep up with them in the field.”

Weather team members are jump-qualified and may hold ratings as military freefall parachutists, air assault specialists, Rangers, combat diver qualifications and more, the major said.

Some team members have received specialized training in military snow skiing, snowshoeing and avalanche forecasting to better align with their SOF counterparts’ mission, he said.

“We know that when we put out a forecast, someone is going to use it downrange,” said Capt. Don Garrett, the squadron’s assistant director of operations. “We provide the real-time, eyes-on, ground truth about conditions that can critically impact the mission.

“That’s why this is a total volunteer outfit,” he said. “We’re all willing to give it one hundred percent every day.”

Major Shannon agrees the people are what make the weather teams unique.

“These people have great attitudes. They’re tough guys who get it done no matter how rough it gets,” he said. “There aren’t a lot of us, so we all know each other and know how to work as a team.”

In fact, there are very few SOWT operators in the Department of Defense. They are currently listed on the Global Military Force Policy low-density, high-demand asset list.

There are roughly 100 SOWT operators in the Air Force, including 20 to 25 officers, Major Shannon said. Most are with the Hurlburt squadron. But others serve with AFSOC special tactics units in the United States and overseas, he said.

A “typical” SOWT mission was like that performed by Staff Sgt. Dave Mack. He infiltrated into Iraq with an Army special forces operational detachment alpha team during the early stages of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Tasked with collecting weather data, the team endured sandstorms that buried them in their sleeping bags.

They survived 12 missile attacks, one which destroyed their humvee, and endured almost continuous small-arms attack. At one point, Sergeant Mack provided 36 continuous hours of weather observations so aircraft could evacuate seriously wounded Soldiers from Baghdad. He also performed security and weapons details with the other team members.

“You get so much satisfaction from this mission,” Major Shannon said. “Everyone works together and you affect the mission at every stage, from planning to execution to redeployment.”

Staff Sgt. Jody Ball, a four-year veteran of special operations weather, agrees.

“The combination of the people and the mission is what makes this job so great,” he said. “I work with Rangers, (Army) special forces, (pararescue jumpers), combat controllers -- it’s an elite group.

“It’s much more than you can get working in a regular weather station,” he said. “It’s not your standard workday.”

Update on the Cosco Busan Incident From Holland & Knight

San Francisco – oil spill update

The US Coast Guard issued a press release updating the status of the response effort for the recent oil spill in San Francisco Bay. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) issued a press release stating that they have sent a team to San Francisco to investigate the accident. Meanwhile, Representative Elijah Cummings (D-MD) issued a press release stating that the Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure has scheduled a hearing on November 19 to examine the causes of and response to the oil spill. (11/13/07).

and

San Francisco – update re oil spill response

The US Coast Guard issued a press release providing an update on the response to the recent oil spill. A second press release states that a new USCG representative to the Unified Command has been appointed so that the Commander of USCG Sector San Francisco can return to his regular duties. The local press is reporting that the crew of the ship involved in the accident is refusing to talk with NTSB investigators. This is not surprising in that the US Attorney has opened a criminal investigation. (11/14/07).

Update on PEMEX Rig Collision

Pemex Says Leaking Oil Well Catches Fire
by Anthony Harrup
Dow Jones Newswires 11/14/2007

Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said Tuesday that fire broke out at an offshore well where workers are attempting to plug a leak caused last month by a rig colliding with another platform.

In a press release, Pemex said the fire at the KAB-101 well was caused by a spark as workers were attempting to stop the leak by injecting mud into the well.

Pemex said no injuries were caused by the incident, and that four firefighting vessels were working to control the blaze.

On Oct. 23, an oil rig crashed into an offshore platform in the oil-rich Campeche Sound amid stormy weather. The accident killed 21 workers and ruptured the well.

RS

Sneaker Waves and Situation Updates!

Sneaker Waves Mar Oregon Coast Stormwatching Experience

By Tiffany Boothe, Seaside Aquarium

(Oregon Coast) - Now that the surf has picked up and winter storms loom on the horizon, it is time to remember beach safety. Many people flock to the coast to view these magnificent storms, but some are unaware of the danger.

Sneaker waves are common and often catch people off guard while standing onshore. You can't see them and they are impossible to predict. These occur when smaller waves pile up on top each other to form one large wave – sometimes twice as large as the previous sets. Also, they can carry large pieces of debris with them such as logs, which present a whole set of other dangers.

Sneaker waves are a universal coastal phenomenon, although they are known to be more common in some areas than others. In the United States, northern California, Oregon and Washington are particularly affected. They can occur at anytime, even if it is calm and the surf is small.

There were a couple of incidences last winter where people were injured or swept out to sea by sneaker waves. That includes a pair of women at Gleneden Beach, near Lincoln City, whose bodies were never found after a walk on a stormy beach ended in tragedy.

Even cars were damaged in recent years. At the cove in Seaside, during large storms when the surf is huge, enormous sneaker waves have come up into the parking lot, abruptly and without notice, littering it with large cove rocks and debris which have dented cars in the past.

Safety during the most spectacular of storms is always a big concern, according to Newport beach expert Guy DiTorrice. He referenced various folks who had to be rescued on the beaches or in the water in the winter of 2005, including a pair of teens who disappeared from a central coast beach in the early part of this century. “Just remember: keep your butts well above the surf zone,” DiTorrice said. “Had at least one novice surfer discover how these waves can take a person offshore just as quickly as it moves one near shore.”

Dangerous conditions can be a bit hard to spot sometimes as well, calling for further vigilance.

“Exercise extreme caution on the beach between storms,” he added. “Skies might be cleared up and the tide table predicts low tide, but offshore conditions and ongoing nightly winds are building surf conditions that are limiting bar access on most rivers and not providing much room for safe beachcombing.”

Have your beach access available to you at all times. A big wave can come right up to a seawall, leaving you no path for safety, getting you cold, wet and possibly swimming when you don't want to do any of the three.

Stay on accessible high ground when storm-agitated surf is on the beach. Oregon State Parks maintains dozens of safe roadside parks and campground access points right along Highway 101 where you can get great photos of dramatic winter surf without endangering yourself.Tall cliffs or high vantage points may give you a seriously faulty, bad sense of security. As engaging as they are – and tempting because you’re away from the tidal madness - they pose even more danger in wet, stormy weather. Stay clear of coastal bluffs. They can collapse and cause injury.

If, for some reason, you’re on a beach during stormy weather, never turn your back to the ocean. You may be swept off coastal bluffs or tide pool areas and into the water by waves that can come without warning. This is also quite true of normal weather.

Do not climb up onto logs on the beach. While they look heavy and sturdy when climbing on them, the smallest wave will roll it over you or a child. Killer logs are real. It only takes an inch of water to move a log several hundred pounds.

Be aware of sneaker waves, even on the calmest days. Don't turn your back on the ocean and keep your eye on the surf. Avoid "Killer Surf."

Dress for the weather. Layer your clothes to provide you warmth and comfort. And carry along your rain gear to keep you dry when it does drizzle.

Some other friendly reminders:

- Learn to swim.
- Never swim alone.
- Supervise children closely.
- Don't rely on flotation devices, such as rafts.
- If caught in a rip current, swim sideways until free. Don't swim against the current's pull.
- Alcohol and swimming, surfing, windsurfing or boating don't mix.
- Protect your head, neck and spine. Don't dive into unfamiliar waters.
- If you are in trouble, call or wave for help.
- Follow posted regulations.
- Swim parallel to shore if you wish to swim long distances.
- Scuba dive only if trained and certified - and within the limits of your training.
- No glass containers at the beach - broken glass and bare feet don't mix.
- No beach fires except in designated areas.
. Report hazardous conditions.

Russian Oil Spill Update!

RUSSIA: Russia's Black Sea coast face an ecological catastrophe after a fierce storm broke up a tanker, disgorging several thousands of tonnes of oil on to the shore. 3 seamen are reported drowned, and about 20 missing. Spilt fuel oil killed 30,000 birds along the Russian coastline in the northern mouth of the Black Sea, near Russia's border with Ukraine. The loss of fish can hardly be evaluated. The collection of spilled oil is being conducted by about 100 workers at the coastal settlement of Ilyich, halfway between Kavkaz and Novorossiisk. The status of the ships in the area is being monitored. The sunk vessels are being inspected, and the search and rescue operation to find the missing crewmembers is under way.

PHOTOS: Black Sea's 'Environmental Disaster'

A vessel is seen after it ran aground near the settlement of Kabardinka, 19 miles southeast of Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk Nov. 12, 2007. A severe storm broke a small Russian oil tanker in two off the Ukrainian port of Kerch on Sunday, spilling up to 2,000 tons of fuel oil in what a Russian official said was an "environmental disaster." The same storm in the Black Sea and Azov Sea also sank four freighters, three carrying sulphur and one with a cargo of scrap metal. The heavy seas also cracked the hull of another oil tanker, but the ship was afloat and not leaking. (Alexander Natruskin/Reuters)

The British Tidal Surge Update!

Written Ministerial Statement by Hilary Benn on the tidal surge, East Coast of England - 13 November 2007

The Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Hilary Benn)

Further to my report to the House last Thursday (8 Nov 2007 : Column 365) I would like to provide an update on the significant tidal surge which affected the coast of Eastern England last week.

On 5 November, the Met Office’s storm tide forecasting service alerted us to a possible tidal surge in the North Sea later on in the week. By Thursday, it had become clear that there was a significant risk of potentially serious flooding in coastal areas of Eastern England during the next 48 hours and the Environment Agency issued a number of severe flood warnings. Police Gold Commands were established in Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex to coordinate the emergency response to any flooding, including evacuation where necessary and in line with the standing emergency arrangements, the Government‘s COBR committee was convened to ensure that all preparations were in place. Continue reading

Update on the Cosco Busan

The term "In Hack" is going to have a new meaning!

The Cargo Letter for Nov. 11 2007 -- In Collision With Oakland Bay Bridge

"Human error factors" probably were involved in a ship crash and oil spill that killed nearly 400 birds in San Francisco Bay and prompted a federal criminal probe, the U.S. Coast Guard said Nov. 11. The U.S. attorney in San Francisco has opened a federal criminal investigation into the Nov. 7 crash of the M/V Cosco Busan to determine whether the captain & crew violated federal maritime laws.

Although not officially detained, the captain and crew were barred from leaving the vessel, which is docked for repairs in Oakland, the Coast Guard said.

In command at the time -- harbor pilot Captain John Cota said he could hardly feel anything on the ship -- suggesting that there wasn't much damage. The ship didn't roll. There wasn't a loud sound. Cota quickly radioed authorities over an open radio network to report the ship had "touched" the bridge, according to an official with knowledge of the investigation. "Traffic, we just touched the delta span" Capt. Cota is alleged to have said.

"You had a competently manned ship with a pilot, all the navigation and sensors," said Admiral Thad Allen, Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard. There were "probably some human error factors, but we need to determine the facts, because there's no reason a ship like that should have collided with the bridge." M/V Cosco Busan was departing Port of Oakland for South Korea when it struck a tower supporting the western suspension span of the Bay Bridge, cutting a 212-foot, 12-foot wide gash in the ship's side.

About 58,000 gallons of heavy-duty bunker oil poured out of the vessel as it was moored near Treasure Island. The oil sickened birds and formed globules on more than 20 of the area's beaches. It oozed along the San Francisco city waterfront and out of the bay, beneath the Golden Gate Bridge toward Marin County.

"Response was set into play within an hour of the event itself," Admiral Allen said Nov. 11. Regarding the initial low estimate of 140 gallons of lost oil, Allen said heavy fog and damage to the ship's tanks hindered initial aerial and on-ground evaluations of how much oil had leaked from the ship.

The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the accident, and was interviewing the pilot, the ship's crew, and other pilots who were on the water at the time of the crash on Nov. 7. The 26 crew had been on its inaugural voyage on the ship, which the current owner purchased last month. The NTSB also intends to review the ship's voyage data recorder, which should have recorded captain and crew conversations on the bridge and other information in the 12 hours leading up to the bridge collision, Hersman said.

As of Nov. 10, 23 beaches in the area remained closed. Angel Island State Park, the Bay's largest island, reopened Nov. 11, the Coast Guard said. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has declared a state of emergency, freeing money to clean up the spill. Seven miles of containment boom stretched across the bay has collected more than 12,271 gallons of oil so far, and another 4,000 gallons have evaporated, officials said.Nearly 400 dead birds have been recovered from the bay, while another 500 birds have been rescued alive but soaked in oil, according to Lisa Curtis, administrator of the Department of Fish and Games Office of Spill Prevention and Response.

In 1989, the oil M/T Exxon Valdez ran aground & fouled Alaska's Prince William Sound with almost 11 million gallons of crude -- the nation's worst ever oil spill. Thousands of birds & animals died in the disaster, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Often birds and animals are threatened when they come in contact with the oil and swallow it as they try to clean themselves, said the NOAA Web site. In addition to birds, oil spills can be very harmful to fish and shellfish, NOAA said.

Twenty wildlife teams were scheduled Nov. 11 to be the bay, working to find sick birds so they can be rehabilitated, Curtis said. On Nov. 10, the state's other U.S. senator and a leading Coast Guard official decried the accident.

Rear Adm. Craig E. Bone, the U.S. Coast Guard's director of inspection and compliance said "This incident should have never ever occurred," he said. "There's systems, there's capabilities, there's licensed operators, there's a pilot on board the vessel, there's the capacity and the capability to safely navigate through this port and waterways every day." He added, "But we have to move beyond the incident and the fact that it occurred and move forward into the response." The California Dept. of Transportation said the collision did no structural damage to the bridge and there was no interruption of bridge traffic -- more than 250,000 vehicles daily.

Cosco Dusan Oil Spill Slideshow



Talk about Pirates? Yep those Oil Spill Response Organizations (OSRO's). Hopefully the Qualified Individual for the line is keeping them honest while cleaning up!

And lastly, Super cyclonic storm Sidr!

Super Cyclonic Storm Sidr is forecast to strike India as a severe cyclonic storm at about 16:00 GMT on 15 November. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 20.9 N, 89.2 E. Sidr is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 203 km/h (126 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Sidr's strength (category 3) at landfall includes:

• Storm surge generally 2.7-3.7 metres (9-12 feet) above normal.
• Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures.
• Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down.
• Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
• Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
• Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.
• Terrain continuously lower than 1.5 metres (5 feet) above mean sea level may be flooded inland 13 km (8 miles) or more.
• Evacuation of low-lying residences within several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.

RS

November 11-17 is Winter Weather Preparedness Week for Illinois and Indiana

November 11-17 is Winter Weather Preparedness Week for Illinois and Indiana

To view Illinois Emergency Management Agency’s Winter Storm Preparedness Guidebook, click here.

To view the Indiana Winter Weather Preparedness Newsletter, click here.

National Weather Service, Chicago has a winter weather page with lots of information. Go to our web page, weather.gov/chciago, from the main menu on the left, under "Weather Safety", click on "Winter Weather". On our winter weather page you will find links to snowfall reports, snowfall records for Chicago and Rockford, historic snow storms, links to state road conditions, a wind chill chart and calculator, winter weather terminology and warning criteria, and more!

Winter Weather Safety Rules

Vehicle safety

• Check the latest forecast with NOAA Weather Radio – All Hazards, or at weather.gov/chicago before traveling.
• Let someone know your travel plans.
• Clear snow and ice off all windows and lights.
• Keep a winter weather disaster supply kit in your vehicle. It should contain an ice scraper, shovel, flashlight and extra batteries, blankets, a change of clothes, high energy, non-perishable snack foods, first aid kit, battery booster cables.
• Check windshield washer fluid, wiper blades, tires and gas before traveling. Keep the gas tank at least half full.
• If you become stranded on the road, stay with the vehicle. Do not attempt to walk out in the storm. Use a cell phone to call for help. Run the engine for short periods of time, about 10 minutes per hour, and open the window a crack for fresh air and to avoid carbon-monoxide poisoning. Make sure to keep the exhaust clear of snow. Tie a colored, preferably red, cloth to the antenna or door as a signal for help. Move arms and legs vigorously from time to time to keep warm.
• Let snow plows do their jobs. Give them plenty of room. Do not pass a plow unless there is plenty of clearance and visibility is good.

Home safety

• Keep a winter weather disaster supply kit at home in case you can’t get out and/or you lose power. It should contain bottled water, flashlight and extra batteries, portable radio or NOAA Weather Radio – All Hazards, first aid kit, high energy, non-perishable food.
• Use extreme caution when using portable space heaters. Keep heaters at least 3 feet away from walls and furniture. Have a fire extinguisher and smoke alarms.
• Use alternate heat sources such as a fireplace or wood burning stove.

Extreme cold

• Dress in loose, lightweight, warm clothing in layers and cover all exposed skin. Trapped air insulates. Outer garments should be water repellent. Wear a hat. Mittens are warmer than gloves.
• Avoid prolonged exposure to wind and cold. Stay dry.
• Confusion, disorientation, and slurred speech are signs of hypothermia. Get indoors and seek medical attention. Warm the core of the body first.

Other tips

• Make sure animals have food, water and shelter.
• Avoid overexertion when shoveling snow, walking in deep snow, or pushing a car stuck in snow. The strain from the cold and hard labor could lead to heart attack. Sweating could lead to a chill and hypothermia.
• Check with your airline before heading to the airport.

1 KM satellite image of snow swath from northeast OK/southeast KS, across MO, IL and southeast WI from December 2006.

Outlook for Winter 2007-2008

With La Nina conditions occurring across the Pacific, above normal temperatures and precipitation are forecast for northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana the winter months of December through February. For more information visit the Climate Prediction Center web site.

Continue reading story

Russian Oil Spill Update

Winds Halt Cleanup Of Russian Oil Spill Associated Press
Word Count: 562

PORT KAVKAZ, Russia -- Fierce winds Tuesday hampered crews struggling to clean up in the wake of a killer storm that sank at least 11 ships and split an oil tanker in two, spilling tons of petroleum in the waters near a southern Russia seaport. Officials called the breakup of the tanker an environmental disaster for the region and warned that the 560,000 gallons of spilled fuel oil, which has killed an estimated 30,000 birds, could cause long-lasting damage to marine life. Leading Russian environmentalists said the oil spill was triggered by years of official negligence that allowed oil transport ...



More Heavy Weather Damage

Cargolaw Report

Faroes ferry Norrona, with 284 passengers and 80 crew, suffered temporary power failure and total machine blackout in heavy weather between Norway and the Shetlands on Nov. 12. The stabilizers were damaged causing the vessel to roll in heavy seas, which resulted in damage to vehicles on board. Vessel was listing, but arrived to port with no serious injuries reported. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Mon. Nov. 12 2007




Lastly a note from my buds at Sea-Fever.Org !

One of my high school shipmates recently gave my 4 year old son Luke and I a tour of the new NOAA fisheries ship Henry B. Bigelow. We took some pictures which are posted on the Sea-Fever blog with a cool video of the ship’s launch. http://sea-fever.org/2007/10/26/the-quietest-ship-in-the-world/ Thought your readers might be interested. Keep up the great work!


RS

Mother and Her Fury!

Been a bad few days in the Black Sea Region. Weather has been at an extreme.

My good friend PC Liu of Freaque Waves also has a commentary on the storms.

First, parts of England were almost washed away by 100 year storm surges. Now as reported by CargoLaw, Five ships sunk in Kerch Straight storm - 23 people missing Russian tanker M/V Vologneft-139 tore apart and sank in heavy weather spilling 1,300 tonnes of fuel oil into the Black Sea on Nov. 11.

Four other cargo ships including three carrying sulphur also sank as winds of up to 108 kilometres (67 miles) an hour battered the Kerch Strait separating the Black Sea from the Sea of Azov. Forty vessels were evacuated from Kavkaz, a busy Russian commercial port some 1,200 kilometres (750 miles) south of Moscow, officials said.

(Photo above - People look at a ships thrown on the rocks by fierce storm in the Kerch strait linking the Black and Azov seas in this image made from television broadcast Sunday, Nov. 11, 2007. Massive waves split a Russian oil tanker in two during a fierce storm, spilling at least 2,000 metric tons (560,000 gallons) of fuel into a strait leading to the Black Sea. The 8-meter-high (18-feet) waves also sank two Russian freighters nearby, in the Strait of Kerch, a narrow strait linking the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast. The two ships together carried about 6,500 metric tons (7,150 tons) of sulfur, said Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry. (AP Photo/Rossiya TV Channel)

A map locating the Kerch Strait -- between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov

Ten others were forced to stay in the port because of the storm. Some 300 kilometres further west, high winds sank another cargo ship with 17 sailors on board. Two were rescued and 15 crew reported missing. M/V Kovel, carrying sulphur, sank after hitting another Russian cargo ship, M/V Volnogorsk, which also sunk in the five-metre high waves and raging winds. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Sun. Nov. 11 2007).

Kabardinka, 19 miles southeast of Russia's Black Sea port of Novorosiisk, in this television grab November 11, 2007. REUTERS/RVN Television" border="0">

A vessel is seen after it ran aground near the settlement Kabardinka, 19 miles southeast of Russia's Black Sea port of Novorosiisk, in this television grab November 11, 2007. REUTERS/RVN Television.

Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency, via Associated Press

A crew member from the stranded Russian cargo vessel Vera Voloshina is evacuated by line Sunday by the Ukrainian rescue service on the coast near Sudak, Ukraine.

Waves broke over the stranded Russian cargo vessel Vera Voloshina on the coast near Sudak, Ukraine. As Russian investigators continued to assess the disaster, they said they had determined so far that five or more cargo ships sank in the storm, and at least five others ran aground. Photo: Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency, via Bloomberg News

When it comes to environmental damage, the quantity of oil spilled can sometimes be less important than the location of the accident, and the one on Sunday was relatively close to the coastline. Photo: Pavel Shevtsov/Reuters

A fierce storm in the Black Sea sank at least five ships on Sunday, killing at least three sailors and causing a massive oil spill that could lead to severe environmental damage. At top, ships struggled in rough water on Sunday near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Russia. Photo: Yuri Bereznyuk/European Pressphoto Agency

MOSCOW. Nov. 11 (Xinhua) -- A Russian oil tanker split in half in a fierce storm in the Kerch Strait leading to the Black Sea on Sunday, spilling at least 2,000 tons of fuel oil, Interfax reported.

"It is a large-scale environmental disaster which will take a long time to deal with. But in a year, and even in a more distant future the impact of the damage will be felt," Interfax quoted Vladimir Slivyak, head of the ECO-Zashchita, a public environmental protection watchdog, as saying.

The storm, with wind blowing at over 18 meters per second, has torn a barge, the Demetra, loaded with 3,000 tons of fuel oil, from its anchor and is carrying it away, Interfax reported on Sunday afternoon, citing an emergency headquarters spokesman from Port Kavkaz.

The storm has also sunk two Turkish freighters and another cargo ship which was carrying over 2,000 tons of sulfur, local emergency department sources said

Latest Situation Update:

Russia Krasnodarskiy Krayjkk Black Sea / Near Port Kavkaz

Situation

More than 30,000 birds have been killed by the thousands of tons of oil that leaked after a heavy storm broke a tanker apart near the Black Sea, the governor of the disaster-hit region said Monday, according to Russian news agencies. Countless other birds, weighed down by thick coatings of the fuel oil, hopped weakly along the shore or sat helplessly in the sand. Workers with pitchforks and shovels started the backbreaking labor of gathering up vast clumps of oil mixed with sand and seaweed. The spill from a tanker that split apart Sunday in the strait connecting the Black and Azov Seas is seen as potentially the worst environmental disaster in the region in recent years. It prompted criticism that many Russian tankers aren't seaworthy. "Some 30,000 birds have died and it's not possible to count how many fish. The damages are so great that it's hard to assess. It can be equated with an ecological catastrophe," said Alexander Tkachev, the governor of the Krasnodar region, according to the Interfax news agency. Another regional official, Sergei Zaitsev, was quoted as saying that much of the oil still on the water's surface could congeal in the wintry temperatures, forming globs that drop to the seabed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov to fly to the region to assess the disaster and clean-up efforts. As many as 10 ships sank or ran aground in the storm, including the freighter Nakhichevan, which broke up and spilled a load of sulfur, officials said. The bodies of three sailors from the Nakhichevan washed up on shore Monday and rescuers were looking for five missing crewmen, said Emergency Situations Ministry spokesman Sergei Kozhemyaka. Two other freighters carrying sulfur also sank. Russian environmental officials said the sulfur spilled from the freighters did not appear to pose any environmental danger. Jim Farr, a chemist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, compared the spill to dumping a load of sand in the water and smothering a reef, or covering a patch of grass with a blanket. However, he said that it was difficult to know the long-term effects without better knowledge of the area's depth and currents.

The Volganeft-139 tanker was carrying about 4,800 metric tons (1.3 million gallons) of fuel oil when the storm sundered it. About half its load has leaked out already, officials estimated. The craft's 13 crew members were rescued. Alexei Knizhnikov, head of the World Wildlife Federation's Russian oil and gas program, said the Volganeft-139 was constructed for river use and was unfit to endure severe weather at sea. "In the Kerch Strait, river vessels and sea vessels change cargoes, as sea vessels cannot enter the Don and Volga rivers because of small water draft. But vessels constructed for rivers cannot stand strong sea storms," he said. Anatoly Yanhuck, a regional coast guard officer, said workers would begin pumping oil from the tanker once the weather improves, then tow the ship to port. Investigators would be looking at the actions of the ship's captain, but he said the weather appeared to have been worse than forecast.

Vesti 24 television on Sunday reported the sinking of a Russian freighter carrying metal near the port of Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. Two members of its 16-man crew drowned and one was missing, it said. Maxim Stepanenko, a regional prosecutor, told Vesti 24 that captains had been warned Saturday about the stormy conditions. He said the Volganeft-139 — designed during Soviet times to transport oil on rivers — was not built to withstand a fierce storm.

RS

Veterans Day!

IN FLANDERS FIELDS


In Flanders fields the poppies blow Between the crosses, row on row, That mark our place; and in the sky The larks, still bravely singing, fly Scarce heard amid the guns below.


We are the Dead. Short days ago We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow, Loved and were loved, and now we lie In Flanders fields.


Take up our quarrel with the foe: To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow in Flanders fields.



- John McRae [May 3 1915]

Thanks Hal for not forgetting!

RS

NOAA celebrates 200 years of science

Contributed by: NOAA News on 11/7/2007

(NOAA meteorologists Tom Schlatter and Nikki Prive test their skills on a mirror nephoscope, an antique instrument used to determine the direction and relative speed of cloud motion.

The instrument will be part of an old-time weather station recreated for a public celebration this Friday at NOAA's research center in Boulder. Provided by: NOAA)

NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Boulder campus will celebrate and commemorate the agency's 200-year legacy in science with a dedication ceremony, public activities, and teacher training from 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., Friday, Nov. 9. All activities will take place at the agency's David Skaggs Research Center at 325 Broadway.

NOAA is hosting the public event as part of a year-long celebration to commemorate its 200 years of science, service and stewardship to the nation. Boulder mayor Mark Ruzzin and other local leaders will participate in the event.

"It all started in 1807 with President Thomas Jefferson'svision to support his fledgling nation's economy by ensuring safe maritime commerce. He accomplished this by creating the Survey of the Coast, the first federal science agency and the precursor to NOAA's navigation services," said Tim Keeney, NOAA deputy assistant secretary for oceans and atmosphere. "With his intense interest in weather and climate, Jefferson would certainly appreciate the world-class scientific community here in Boulder."

Keeney will present an award to U.S. Rep. David Skaggs, former congressman from the Boulder area, for his role in consolidating the agency's Colorado groups into the NOAA center in the late 1990s. Susan Graf, president and chief executive officer of the Boulder Chamber of Commerce, will accept an award for the Chamber's role in attracting the federal labs to Boulder in the early 1950s.

The day's events will begin at 9:30 a.m. with the dedication of a memorial marker placed by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey in the gardens just outside the main entrance on the west side of the building. At 10:30 a.m., visitors will be treated to a "Science Showcase" of new activities and demonstrations, many with a historical focus. Teachers are invited to visit the demos and participate in a special in-service training on Earth science.

Visitors will be able to follow a virtual underwater explorer through four of NOAA's marine sanctuaries, travel aboard a survey ship mapping the coastal ocean floor, mop up a disastrous oil spill, and experience the devastation algae can wreak during a red tide.

For real-world experience, share an expert's view of Boulder's fickle weather as a National Weather Service forecaster walks through a year of big storms. Get a preview of the upcoming weekend weather, spiced with fascinating insider trivia about Front Range climate. Then stop by an old-time weather station to check out a mirror nephoscope, a microbarograph, a Parisian thermograph, and other antique instruments with strange names that meteorologists used to track weather long before computers existed.

NOAA's Boulder lab is the best place in the world to see how scientists measure carbon dioxide levels around the globe, including Boulder County's carbon "footprint." Air-filled flasks arrive daily from remote corners of the planet to be analyzed in Boulder. The most powerful software to understand the world carbon cycle was launched right here last spring and produces colorful maps of atmospheric carbon levels daily.

On the space-weather front, guests will be able to look back through the ages to early evidence of sunspots and find out how they are related to spectacular auroras, or Northern Lights, which are sometimes visible here in Colorado.

Science on a Sphere will display brilliant global presentations of tsunamis, El Niño, a warming world, and what planet Earth looked like 600 million years ago.

Fresh baked goods will be on sale to benefit the Denver Botanic Gardens' certificate program in botanical art and illustration. Coffee will be provided at no charge by a local vendor.

Visitors must stop at the Visitor Center at the Rayleigh Avenue entrance before passing through the gate. Those 16 years old and over should bring a valid state or federal photo ID.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

NOAA: www.noaa.gov

NOAA Boulder 200th celebration: http://www.boulder.noaa.gov/events/noaa200

Weather Notes

"England: Storm surge flooding likely for eastern England"

[Nov 8 London]--Forecasters at the Met Office are providing the Environment Agency with the very latest weather information, ahead of a predicted storm surge down the North Sea.

A combination of north-westerly winds exceeding 50 m.p.h., low pressure and high tides could lead to severe flooding in the east of England. Areas at greatest risk are the Broads and the coast south of Great Yarmouth including Lowestoft and Felixstowe.

Sky News Video on British flood threat!

Update on Mexican floods!

By Arthur Rabjohn MEXICO: Tens of thousands of Mexicans are threatened by ailments ranging from colds, respiratory illnesses and foot fungus. Authorities fear outbreaks of epidemics like cholera due to a lack of running water. Standing water attracts mosquitoes, carrying infectious diseases such as dengue. Government official said that fumigation of waterlogged areas would start in the next few days to reduce the risk of diseases.

Crocodiles and snakes taking to flooded streets are posing a new risk, as the reptiles have started swimming along flooded streets. The floods, caused by rivers overflowing after heavy rain, killed at least 3 people, damaging crops, homes, businesses and infrastructure. A further 4 people were killed, and 21 others were missing as a result of a huge mudslide.

Maritime Notes

Ouch! Here are some pix's from the USCG on the Cosco Busan collision with the Bay Bridge!

M/V Cosco Busan Allides With San Francisco Bay Bridge SAN FRANCISCO (Nov. 7, 2007)- The motor vessel Cosco Busan, a 900-foot container carrier, allided with one of the towers of the San Francisco Bay Bridge Wednesday morning, prompting a response from the Coast Guard, CALTRANS, the city of San Francisco and several other state and local agencies. Coast Guard photo.

And finally and most exciting....

National Storm Chasers Convention 2008 - Denver, Colorado (Click on rwister for further details!)

The 2008 National Storm Chaser Convention will be held February, 16-18, 2008 in Denver!

Hello everyone!

Just a preliminary FYI for the upcoming 2008 National Storm Chaser's Convention. It will be held Feb 15-17 (President's Day weekend as usual) in Denver, CO at the Radisson Southeast (same hotel as last year). Check out www.chaserconvention.com in the coming weeks for updates and more details. Friday evening will be the traditional ice breaker where you can meet your favorite speakers. Saturday will be a day full of great speakers and Keynote Speakers at the evening banquet that you DO NOT WANT TO MISS!! Sunday will be a day of teachings on your favorite severe weather subjects, followed by a spotter training class conducted by the local NWS.

THIS IS THE 10TH ANNUAL CONVENTION AND IT WILL BE HUGE!!! EXPECT SOMETHING VERY SPECIAL TO HAPPEN!

Tune in by early December for the details.

Roger Hill and Tim Samaras



Be sure and register NOW and secure your seat at the largest gathering of storm chasers in the world!


RS