EPIRB failures, where's the beef?

Well looks like we drew some fire from PANBO Marine Electronics
on our EPIRB story. Why am I not surprised?

I have to admit after reading Ellison's hatchet job of an article I was pretty hot. Neither John Konrad, nor I, are writing about these events for our own gain. We are not ringing alarm bells and we are not blowing smoke.

The issues we've raised are real and important to close the gap on an alert system that has saved many mariners over the years.

Before we went to print on the EPIRB we talked with the USCG, NOAA and even the NTSB as well as survivors of marine accidents. We all believe in the importance of having the EPIRBs and as we said their success rate speaks volumes for the device and the COSPAS-SARSAT System.

However there is an appearance presently of some important gaps that need to be addressed. One of these issues is a post-mortem examination and investigation when a EPIRB has been reported failed and has been recovered. This post-mortem examination and investigation needs to be performed by an independent regulatory agency, namely the United States Coast Guard, since by law it is the entity required to conduct a failure analysis of all USCG certified and inspected life safety equipment.

Mr. Ellison is under the belief that there are not enough marine electronics on the market to accertain a failure rate. Well, that is just smoke .... According to NOAA there are some 70,000 + EPIRBS in the registry. Ok, let's say 20,000 are in reality no longer used/operational, yet they remain on a current registry. They need to be purged. That still leaves 50,000 registered and that is plenty to establish any failure rates and/or false alarm rates. Do we believe that the manufacturer should be allowed to review the post-mortem examination? Of course we want them as parties, but unlike Mr. Ellison, we do not believe that the regulatory agency should be looking over the manufacturer's shoulder while the manufacturer performs the post-mortem examinations. That scenario needs to be reversed.

There are all kinds of statistics that are gathered about accidents involving on-land vehicles.. They include statistics on life-saving devices, i.e. air bags, brakes.. Why should marine vehicles be less important when this life-saving equipment is made mandatory on some vessels (and as a safety-line to others who buy them for times of possible peril)? Once bought and installed, our lives are entrusted to how well they work..!! We may have life-vests aboard that will keep us afloat, but if there's no one that will ever find us because of EPIRB failure, why not just take the vests off and end it quicker?

We also find it interesting that the writer Ben Ellison took the liberty to write his article so quickly that he was not remotely thorough in his research. He wrote with absolutely no reference to any facts that either John Konrad or I might have... His only "source" seems to have been ACR, the EPIRB manufacturer. NASA has zero info on this topic, so that hardly counts as a source. An article written from one viewpoint is hardly unbiased. If he didn't want to put any REAL research into his article why write it? You have to wonder if he created an article out of thin air.. just to have something to write about that day?

But, Ellison asks "where's the meat"?

STATEMENT: With regards to the Sean Seamour II, Mr. Ellison posts, "ACR tells me that they offered to test the unit which was mistakenly attributed to an Alabama registration, but the Seamour's owner declined."

EXPLANATION: Well Ellison, that is not true. Mr. deLutz never told ACR that he declined their offer. What Mr. deLutz has done is to keep his options open. He never told ACR yes or no. Ellison would have learned this if he had, as a boating journalist, done the responsible thing and checked with Mr. deLutz to ascertain the truth. However, he did not do that. He simply took the word of ACR and ran with the story he thought he had. It seems that was part of Ellison's game to discredit our report. Ellison goes on in an attempt to explain away some of the other reports of EPIRB failures, but ends up answering his own question.

The fact is neither we, nor Ellison, know the true cause of any of these failures!! Although HE missed it entirely, THAT is the entire point of our investigation. Yes, some have conducted limited testing, However, that is not what we are asking for.

Ellison asks "where's the meat?" Lets take a look.

STATEMENT: Ellison states "F/V Papa George: The assumption here is that the automatic hydrostatic activation found on Class A EPIRBs failed to work. But isn't it possible that the unit failed to float free of the vessel? It's really hard to mount an EPIRB where it will float free regardless of what the boat does, especially on fishing boats with lots of rigging. It strikes me that it's always better to manually activate an EPIRB if possible."

EXPLANATION: Well, first of all, if the positioning of the automatic hydrostatic cradle is a problem on most fishing boats, then THAT is something that needs to be reviewed! How else does one review something like this unless post-mortem examinations are done? Lets not mention the simple fact that locating the automatic hydrostatic cradle and release of theEPIRB is one of the manufacturers recommended modes of release and prescribed by code. Yes, manual release would be nice, but in many cases when all hell is breaking out, or a crew has limited time to abandoned ship, or the crew has no experience with releasing an EPIRB, the auto-release may be the best (or only) mode of deployment. Having a redundant EPIRB to manually release attached to a raft would be an even better option.

But once again without a post-mortem examination of a failure report, we will not know how to improve the system.

STATEMENT: '* F/V Illusion: An initial USCG press release: "The Rescue Coordination Center, (RCC) in Juneau was notified that the crew was in trouble when the fishing vessel's registered electronic position indicating radio beacon, (EPIRB) was picked up by satellite shortly after the Illusion's crew abandoned ship. The EPIRB did not initially give a fix on the crew's location, and the RCC was able to ascertain that the Illusion had been fishing in Makushin Bay through further investigation." There's no evidence of failure here at all; this is how EPIRBS without the GPS option work. First, a geostationary satellite gets the distress message, and then LEO sats use Doppler shifting to get a location, which generally takes about an hour".

EXPLANTION: "Here is the key phrase to consider "The EPIRB did not initially give a fix on the crew's location, and the RCC was able to ascertain that the Illusion had been fishing in Makushin Bay through further investigation." The question is WHY did the EPIRB emit a signal? The EPIRB once launched should transmit a signal within a quarter of a second and then transmit every 50 seconds and then shut down to conserve battery power for twenty minutes and then reactivates to repeat the cycle. The USCG should not have had to do further investigation to find out that the Illusion was fishing in Makushin Bay, because the initial signal should have enabled the calculation for the general geographical location, enough to at least launch the Alert C-130 or alert aircraft to obtain a fix. In the case of a GPRIB the extra positioning data accelerates the localization....

STATEMENT: " F/V Ellie B: Robin may have made a mistaken link here—I see no Ellie B.—but he uses this BoatUS page elsewhere in his report. It's about issues with the GPS option on some EPIRBs and PLBs that were discovered back in 2003. Extensive research was done on this, especially by Doug Ritter, and some gear was updated as a result. But throughout that process, no one found any problems with the basic EPIRB functionality. The GPS option can definitely speed up a rescue, but it is not necessary to one. "

EXPLANATION: With regards to the * F/V ELLIE B", first there was no process, since there was no investigation because there was no loss of life. But as you can read the EPIRB is reported not to have launched because of a faulty trigger mechanism. Again there is no post mortem report. Mr. Ellison wouldn't you think that something like this should and needs to be noted in an official casualty report?

While yes much research was done by Doug Ritter and some changes were made. But once again the post-mortem examination needs to be undertaken by the United States Coast Guard, the governing body, not just an advocate for boaters safety.

We applaud Doug Ritter's endeavors, because he proved that if post-mortem examinations are done, they can effect some much-needed change. His actions need to become standard practice when a failure report is indicated. Of course Ellison needs to read "The Sea's Bitter Harvest" to understand what the Coast Guard Investigators recommended as changes to the program.. and what was actually changed/not changed. Once again we support having all parties involved in a failure analysis. What we do not support is having the examination performed by the manufacturer in its own laboratory, as the only unquestioned, post-mortem testing of an EPIRB, until after tests are conducted by the lab of the governing body. Otherwise, where is the objectivity? Having the manufacturer playing watchdog for it's own devices, places the United Coast Guard in a very awkward and uncomfortable position.

STATEMENT: Lastly Ellison writes, "F/V Sav-A-Buck: This is an initial newspaper report suggesting that an EPIRB that 'should have signaled the Coast Guard that a lobster boat was sinking off the Isles of Shoals Sunday failed to send a distress signal when it hit the water…'Another hydrostatic activation failure? A more recent article suggests that the boat capsized—which would certainly make floating free difficult. But later the EPIRB floated up on a beach with other debris, so perhaps we'll learn more."

EXPLANATION: Are you aware you've answered your own query, Mr. Ellison..? Yet you say this is nothing more than hubbub.. hmmmm. Read what YOU wrote, never mind what I've written.

The point is... that if there was another hydrostatic activation failure, then a post-mortem examination needs to be done by an unbiased lab... and THAT is the "MEAT" we are seeking.

E x a c t l y.

RS

EPIRBs - The Robin Storm/gCaptian Investigation Continues

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SPECIAL EDITION

EPIRBs - The Robin Storm/gCaptain Investigation Continues...

Both Captain John Konrad of gCaptain and I have written much on the importance of GPIRBs and EPIRBs (Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon's) for the maritime and boating communities. Or (Radio Distress Beacons) that include aviation and personal distress beacons.

These GPIRB/EPIRBs are critical life safety devises that every mariners life depends on when "Ship Happens".

Our investigation started with the malfunction of the ACR Globalfix 406 Cat II aboard the Sean Seamour II.

For some background on this incident refer to my July 2007 posting, EPIRBs and the s/v Sean Seamour II , and Captain John Konrad's posting EPIRB Failure aboard the “Sean Seamour”

Since the sinking of this sailboat and rescue of its crew we have focused on those EPIRBs and GPIRBs that have been reported either as not working or have malfunctioned.

In all fairness to the manufactures of EPIRBs and GPIRBS. These devises normally operate with great success and are credited with saving many lives. They are extremely important pieces of life safety equipment that all mariners need to take seriously. Moreover when they fail, they can for a number of reasons. Some mechanical, some weather related, some because of poor maintenance, some because of improper registration and some fail because of the poor positioning by mariners on their vessels or they just don't turn them on. These devises are like smoke detectors or intruder alarms in ones home.

If you do not install the smoke detector properly the odds are it just might not detect the initial stages of combustion or warn late of a fire. If you don't activate your homes burglar alarm then you can bet your not protected and wasting your money.

Since the sinking of the Sean Seamour II, we have been tracking the reports of EPIRBs and GPIRBs that have failed to transmit the emergency beacon signal or failed for one reason or another. What we found is that the Sean Seamour II is not the only incident or report of a malfunction or report of a GPIRB/EPIRB not working. The cases of the F/V Papa George, F/V Illusion the F/V Ellie B and recently the F/V Sav-A-Buck just to note a few examples of reported failures.

To date the investigation continues. What we have found so far raises concern. While there are independent test reports on why GPIRB and EPIRB might fail to some degree. There is very limited follow up when they do actually fail. Again the reasons are many and they include, the lost of the GPIRB/EPIRB during the incident at sea or a waterway and the lack of a formal reporting procedure or failure data base. More frightening still, is how many mariners never make it back to report or relate what happened. It seems that no one knows for sure what the actual failure rates are of the 75, 000 + GPIRB/EPIRBs in the NOAA 406 MHz registry data base and now with the 406 MHz ELTs and PLBs the number of 406 MHz Emergency Beacons registered now totals over 82,000.

While many, many private boats have GPIRBs and EPIRBs and many commercial vessels are required by US Law to have a certified and inspected EPIRB/GPIRB on board and while the regulation calls for the United States Coast Guard (USCG) to conduct a informal failure investigation of any USCG Certified and Inspected Life Safety devise, which includes a EPIRB and or GPIRB. The USCG just does not have the proper staffing, funding or facilities to conduct such testing independently.

Additionally it is my understanding that of these 75,000 to 80,000 + units in NOAA's registry, it appears that no one knows how many GPIRB/EPIRBs are still operational and how many are not. While there are regulations concerning registering and certifying these devises. There are no requirements to report a EBIRB or GPIRB that is no longer certified or operational. Like your cars licenses plate, when you get a new one you must turn it in so the motor vehicles department can make the appropriate changes in their data base. Well it appears that this does not happen with EPIRBs and GPIRBs.

We are pressing for the US House Subcommittee on the Coast Guard and Marine Transportation to conduct both an investigation into these deficiencies and potentially hold formal hearings in the future.

Again I cannot stress enough the importance and success rate of both the GPIRB and EPIRB to the maritime and boating communities. They are credited with saving many lives. To date worldwide some 22, 058 people have been rescued since 1982. 5, 842 in the United States since 1982 and 94 this year in the US alone.

But if we can save just one more life by fortifying the registration data base and understanding the cause and effect of a failure. That is money and time very well spent.

CORRECTION

I also wish at this time to make a important correction to MAIS - Maritime Podcast Episode 22 that both Captain John Konrad and I did on GPIRB/EPIRBs. I made a mistake that was brought to my attention by a listener, which I was able to confirm.

During the podcast I stated that NOAA handles all GPIRB/EPIRB Registrations. Well in reality NOAA COSPAS-SARSAT is a partnership with 29 other Nation States and is only responsible for the registration of GPIRB/EPIRBs that are owned and operated by vessels registered in the United States. Each Nation State that is a partner is responsible for their respective registries.

So if your GPIRB/EPIRB is registered in the United States then NOAA COSPAS-SARSAT is the agency you should be checking with to verify the hexadecimal code with. If your registered with one of the other 29 Nation States then you must check the registry with that Nation State.

INTERIM RECOMMENDATIONS

We are recommending that all mariners who own GPIRB/EPIRBs make sure that: 1. They are properly registered with the Nation State that the vessel is registered with. If you own one that is not registered please take the time and register it. Registration is free.

We are also recommending that all mariners check the hexadecimal code with that Nation State. If you are US registered there are a couple of ways to achieve this. 1. You can write the NOAA registry at COSPAS-SARSAT, NSOF, E/SP3, 4231 Suitland Road, Suitland, MD 2. You can call COSPAS-SARSAT at 301.817.4515 or toll free: at 888.212.7283. 3. Fax them at 301.817.4565. Provide them with all the information on the GPIRB/EPIRB including the boat/vessel/aircraft and owners identification which the devise is registered to.

4. You can check on-line if the GPIRB/EPIRB is already registered by clicking on the link below...



Once again check and make sure that your GPRIB/EPIRB's certification and maintenance is in order and was done properly by which ever service company was used. Even if this means calling them. Lastly, we ask all mariners who's GPIRB/EPIRBs are no longer operational to contact their respective Nation State registries and cancel out the registration.

DO NOT ACTIVATE THE GPIRB/EPIRB TO TEST IT! Talk about all hell breaking out....

While your checking this equipment why not check the rest of your life safety equipment, such as all flotation devises, beacons, rafts, radio's, flare guns etc.... Do it now and do not wait until your underway. Remember also filing a "Float Plan" is not a bad idea. Who knows it just might be your life it saves one day. The idea is to make it easy for rescue agencies to locate you. No matter if your sailing transatlantic or floating on a lake or bay.

I will also add that it appears that the other Nation States that are partnered with NOAACOSPAT-SARSAT seem to have the same problems that we are covering here. It just might be something that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) may have to get involved with.

We will keep you posted as our investigation continues. If any of our readers have heard or know of a reported GPIRB/EPIRB failure(s) just contact me here at Robin Storm or Captain John Konrad at gCaptain....

MORE ON EPIRBS!

You Only Live Twice - rescued (again)

Last week we reported the rescue of two oarsmen and their boat, Sunny, who had set out to row from Subic Bay (Philippines) to Hebe Haven (Hong Kong) to raise money for The Sunnyside Club and Children’s Cardiac Care Hong Kong – and incidentally become the first people ever to make the 600 nm crossing in a rowing boat.

The attempt turned sour when unexpectedly bad weather – and even worse forecast weather - caused the voyage to be abandoned. After a full HKMRCC (Hong Kong Marine Rescue Coordination Centre) organised operation, the two rowers, Stu Pryke and John Graham, were rescued by a container ship and transported back to Manila. The boat, Sunny, was taken in tow at 16 kts or more but (not surprisingly) the towline snapped.

That really should have been the end of the story – big pat on the back for the rescue services, congratulations on top quality seamanship for the commercial shipping involved, bad luck lads, nice try, game over, sorry it didn’t work out, glad that you are alive and well.

But Sunny had on board a tracking device, put there for safety and PR reasons, and it was still transmitting. The temptation of knowing where the boat was, and a lull in the weather, proved too much for Pryke who chartered a 65’ sailing yacht, the Sailabout, complete with two Filipino crew and owner Jon Young, to go and look for and hopefully salvage the rowing boat.

According to the Subic2Hebe Challenge website (Wednesday14 May), 'Time (is) the essence as there is some pretty foul weather forecast in the area for Friday through to Monday with another warning from Typhoon 2000 that another Tropical Cyclone is assured in the next 24-48 hours.' At the same time they noted, 'In our favour the weather is bad enough for the Philippine fishing fleet to be safe at anchor so there are not many boats out there that could throw a line on her (and claim salvage).'

Then, knowing full well that there was some nasty weather ‘out there’, they sailed straight into the forecast bad weather that had contributed to the abandonment of the rowing attempt in the first place.

During Friday 16 May TD Halong (Cosme) continued to strengthen, and at 16.30 hrs Pryke made a satphone call advising that they were abandoning all attempts to retrieve Sunny, and asking that Hong Kong MRCC be advised of their position 'in case things got worse overnight' – and Sailabout started heading back towards the shelter of a Philippines’ port. Sunny was declared ‘abandoned’ in high seas and winds in excess of 50 kts. At 0650 hrs on 17 May, Pryke made another call: MAYDAY - two hatches had failed, Sailabout was taking on water, and boat and crew were in 'grave danger'.

UK authorities picked up a signal from an unregistered personal EPIRB and passed the alert on to HK MRCC, who were able to confirm that Pryke did in fact own a personal EPIRB. Then, as the position of the EPIRB transmission and the last reported position of the yacht were very close, fixed wing aircraft from Hong Kong and the Philippines were despatched to search. Two commercial vessels, the LPG tanker ‘Mill Reef’ and container ship Evergreen Uni Prudent were diverted to assist from about 100 nm away.

At 1645 hrs Mill Reef advised that they had rescued all four crew members from Sailabout, and were heading for Yantian port, Shenzhen, China on the north shore of Mirs Bay. Winds at the time were a steady 50+ knots, gusting 70 knots.

Sailabout was abandoned and has either sunk or is drifting. All the ‘rescuees’ travel documents were lost in the operation - arrangements were made for Pryke, Young, and the two Filipinos to be taken off the Mill Reef in Hong Kong waters as this entailed less complications than their landing without documentation in China. ETA, Monday pm.

We are, of course, delighted to hear that Pryke and his companions are (once more) safe and sound.

And (once more) a big round of applause for the HK MRCC, the HK Government Flying Service, and the Philippine SAR services. A vote of thanks, too, to the Captains and crews of the Mill Reef and the Uni Prudent who were there when they were needed, in the best traditions mutual assistance at sea, and who displayed seamanship of the highest order in responding to a distress call under ferocious weather conditions.

However, we are not prepared to be so congratulatory about the actions that caused the second rescue to be necessary. Being retrieved from severe weather in the South China Sea once is noteworthy, and definitely worth a few beers in the telling at the Club, but causing yourself to be rescued twice – from much the same place – in similar conditions - within a week – suggests a level of recklessness and lack of judgment that is hard to fathom.

We seriously question the wisdom of sailing straight out into the developing storm that had helped send them back to the Philippines in the first place. By doing so, a huge number of people have been massively, needlessly and expensively inconvenienced. Lives have been put at risk, and a great deal of money has been spent for… what? Nothing. Except that now there is a 65’ sailing boat missing, presumed lost, as well as an ocean rowing boat.

In some parts of the world such behaviour would be rewarded with arrest, and charges being laid against the perpetrators – Subic2Hebe Challenge should be thankful that this is not the case in either Hong Kong or the Philippines. We do not advocate mandatory charging for rescues at sea – that could lead to at least two very unpleasant scenarios: one, where a vessel refuses to render assistance unless (somehow) assurance is given that the bill is going to be paid; and two, that mariners in distress leave it 'too late' in asking for assistance because they fear the financial consequences – and by too late we mean that the rescue services are then exposed to even more severe risk than if the call had been made earlier.

However, since this was a fund-raising exercise in the first place, maybe the Subic2Hebe Challenge would like to reimburse the Hong Kong and Philippines rescue agencies for their expenditure, Jon Young for the loss of his boat, and the Mill Reef and the Uni Prudent for their inconvenience and lost commercial time?

No doubt this tale will be rumbling around the bars for a while yet. There is certainly plenty of ‘comment’ being expressed that has come to my notice already.

Please note that these comments are specifically my opinion, and do not necessarily represent the views of Sail-World.com or its other Editors.

Guy Nowell
Editor, Sail-World Asia

WEATHER NOTE

Study: Early Warnings May Boost Tornado Deaths

Tuesday , May 20, 2008

By Clara Moskowitz

With the most deadly tornadoes, even advanced warning may not reduce fatalities, according to a new study.

Though the results are based on only a few cases, scientists found that with the worst tornadoes, increasing the warning time may actually increase the number of deaths they cause.

The researchers say they don't have enough evidence to conclude that greater advance notice is a bad thing, but their findings do indicate that more warning time alone may not be the answer to tornado threats.

"If an F-5 [the most severe type of tornado] hits your house, unless you're in a [reinforced] safe room, it probably doesn't matter if you had two minutes of warning or an hour of warning," said Kevin Simmons, an economist at Austin College in Texas who conducted the study with economist Daniel Sutter at the University of Texas-Pan American. "That thing is so powerful, there's a pretty high probability you're going to be injured or killed."

Better warning systems

The researchers analyzed data from more than 18,000 tornadoes in the United States between 1986 and 2002.

Overall, they found that early warning is very helpful: On average it reduced expected injuries by about 32 percent.

This finding seems to agree with historical trends: Between 1925 and 2000, the annual fatality rate from tornadoes in the United States went down from 1.8 per million residents to 0.11 per million. Many experts attribute this decline to improved warning systems.

But when the researchers examined data from the most severe cases — the 300 out of 18,000 tornadoes in which people died — the effects of advanced warning were less clear.

Overall, when people were notified of a tornado up to about 15 minutes ahead of time, deaths decreased. However, lead times greater than 15 minutes seemed to increase fatalities compared with no warning.

The scientists think this result is explained by a handful of the most severe storms.

"If you just look at it on the surface, you could come up with the conclusion that extra warning doesn't pay off," Simmons told LiveScience. "But when you break it down and look at what's driving that result, you find that the storms that are much larger are also the storms that are on the ground the longest, and those storms are the easiest ones to detect, so they're almost inevitably going to have longer lead times."

Encouraging dangerous behavior?

The researchers didn't have information about how the people died in those tornadoes, so they can't assess whether the increased warning time simply didn't help enough, or actually added to the fatalities.

"The concern is that longer lead times would encourage dangerous behavior," Simmons said. "There is anecdotal evidence that came out of the tornadoes in Oklahoma and Missouri last week. Out of the 23 fatalities, eight were people in cars. I don't know if those people were trying to outrun the storm, or if they just happened to be in their cars."

If a tornado is heading your way, you are much more likely to be injured or killed in your car than you are at home, Simmons said. Perhaps earlier warnings encourage people to think they can outrun tornadoes when they'd be safer to stay at home.

"Our policy recommendation is not that we don’t need to increase lead times," Simmons said. "It's not that at all. It's that these large storms may not be as responsive to lead times, so what else can you do?"

Other helpful tactics aimed at improving tornado safety are designs for building safe rooms in houses and community hideout shelters that can withstand tornado winds.

Also, since early warnings do help most of the time, the researchers advocate the use of radios tuned to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Weather Radio network, which broadcasts county-specific weather warnings.

Radios can be left on these stations all night (when people are unlikely to see a warning on TV), and will only alert a person if there is danger in their immediate area.

Forecasters Expect Few Hurricanes This Season
Officials Urge Residents To Be Prepared

HONOLULU -- Hurricane season is nearly here, and officials are forecasting another below average season, which runs from the beginning of June through the end of November.The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is predicting three to four tropical cyclones in Hawaii's neighborhood this year. That is just a little below the average of four to five storms.Even so, forecasters said we should not breathe any easier."We need to be prepared, just like I was forecasting, a lot more.

Because we never know when that one is going to hit us," Jim Weyman said.Last year, the hurricane center predicted only two or three tropical cyclones in our area. There were actually two.One of them was Hurricane Flossie, which gave the state, especially the Big Island of Hawaii, a big scare with a close call.It came within 100 miles south of the Big Island.While there was little damage, it was still enough of a scare.Emergency authorities now want us to have up to seven days worth of emergency supplies, including food. Hawaii' isolattion from the rest of the world has a lot to do with that.

It could take a long time for the government and supplies to reach the islands, and so that's why Hawaii residents really need five to seven days worth of material, food and water, to feel protected and prepared.Authorities say you should have those ready before hurricane season begins June 1.

MARITIME NOTE

Lack of skills in maritime industry
May 15, 2008 Edition 2
hans Pienaar and sapa

The Chinese ship carrying weapons destined for Zimbabwe has rounded the Cape of Good Hope, and parliament heard the saga has exposed a severe skills shortage in the maritime industry.

Yesterday the An Yue Jiang was south of Port Elizabeth, outside South African territorial waters. The ship is following an east-north-east course at about nine knots.

SA Maritime Safety Authority chief executive Tsietsi Mokhele yesterday told parliament's transport portfolio committee about the lack of technological capacity to monitor foreign vessels in South African waters.

"Our capacity to track and monitor vessels at sea is non-existent.

Authorities were unable to say where the ship was headed, or pinpoint its position after it had left Durban harbour.

Angolan government officials said they did not get any information on the ship when it was heading to Luanda from South Africa, but relied on media sources that have have been quoting the Independent Foreign Service and insurance company Loyds' Maritime Intelligence Unit.

But the latter used satellite surveillance dependent on ships' transponders. It was suspected the An Yue Jiang switched off its transponder on several occasions.

The SA Air Force patrolled the eastern and western coasts, but officers admitted they could easily miss a ship on the ocean.

This weekend remember those who have given the ultimate sacrifice for all of us...

RS

Weather spotters critical element of severe weather warnings

Weather spotters critical element of severe weather warnings

Sunday, May 18, 2008 6:11 PM CDT

By Bob Holliday

BLOOMINGTON -- Curtis Hawk has 2,400 eyes and ears when it comes to severe weather, and he needs them all.

He has 1,200 weather spotters scattered throughout McLean County, who are especially important during peak tornado season of March, April and May.

“Radar picks up a lot, but the man on the ground is very important,” said Hawk, McLean County Emergency Management Agency (EMA) director.

His agency handles other emergencies as well, such as hazardous material spills, but weather is the most common emergency, Hawk said.

A severe weather watch means the conditions are favorable for bad weather. A warning means severe weather has been spotted.

Ideally, there’s a watch before a warning. “It’s tough if it goes right into a warning,” Hawk said.

Many of the McLean County weather spotters have all-hazard alert radios that alert them to bad weather, Hawk said.

The spotters, he said, volunteer for the same reason as do volunteer firefighters — to protect their community. Spotters come from all walks of life and include everyone from firefighters to State Farm office workers, he said.

Severe weather occupies much of the time of the Emergency Management Agency in Woodford County, where Director Bob Hix said there are between 150 and 200 weather spotters.

His agency relies on the National Weather Service in Lincoln, emergency agencies in other counties and weather spotters. Warning sirens also help: Hix said Roanoke got three new sirens over the past five years and Eureka will get a new one this summer.

The new sirens cost up to $30,000, are louder than the old ones and can be used as a public address system. But Hix said they are no substitute for a weather alert radio because they can’t be heard by everyone inside a well-insulated house with the television on.

“A weather radio is still the answer for most people,” he said. The radios can be purchased for between $50 and $70.

Hix, who runs a one-man office, tries to stay available in case he’s needed. “I don’t make too many trips during the tornado season,” he said.

WEATHER NOTE

Florida Hurricane Conference Presents Message of Preparedness

By Brian Skoloff
May 16, 2008

Preparing for hurricanes, despite two slow previous storm seasons, is key to the survival of Floridians and recovery efforts, officials said.

About 2,800 people attended the 22nd Annual Governor's Hurricane Conference on May 14, where the main message was preparedness over complacency.

"Each and every individual citizen has a responsibility,'' Gov. Charlie Crist told a crowd of emergency responders.

Craig Fugate, the state's emergency management chief, said too often we refer to victims after hurricanes when instead we should focus on survivors.

The mentality in the past has always been, "something went wrong, blame somebody else,'' Fugate said.

"It's about being survivors, that's my message,'' Fugate said. "We can accomplish a lot if we include our neighbors, the people down the street. Write them out of your plan, and we're going to fail. It's just that simple.''

Fugate repeated a familiar message: it's not a question of if another hurricane will hit, but when, and the need to be prepared to survive alone for a few days after the storm is more important than ever.

"If we can't do that, everything else we do will fall flat on its face,'' he said.

"If the great Miami hurricane hits today, it will dwarf the cost of Katrina,'' Fugate added, noting estimates put such a disaster cost at more than $160 billion in losses. "The message is simple. We've got to be survivors.''

Earlier in the day, Crist also emphasized the need for citizens to be prepared to help themselves.

"Without our citizens, there's just no way we can help everybody,'' the governor said. "We were very fortunate last year ... but we can't count on that.''

Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November.

Later in the day, talk turned briefly to global warming and its potential effect on hurricanes, a debate that has been raging within the scientific community for several years.

Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division, warned that "just because it's published doesn't make it true.''

"This is a hot debate,'' Goldenberg said. "I have never seen anything like it in my career.''

He said "very prominent scientists with tremendous reputations'' have conflicting opinions about whether man-made global warming will have any effect on hurricane strength and frequency.

"The weather is always changing,'' he said, regardless of man's actions, and certainty about man-made climate change and its affect on hurricanes is far from, well, certain.

MARITIME NOTE

Bad weather for marine insurance
05/19/2008 08:13 PM |
By Frank Kennedy, Special to Gulf News

At the beginning of this year there was a mood of short-term optimism in the marine insurance sector that was summarised by Aon's Annual Marine Insurance Market Review that predicted the industry would experience a continuing run of favourable insurance premiums in 2008, despite facing higher risks.

Moreover, Aon said that the cargo and liability markets would offer a 'win-win' scenario to ship and cargo owners who were paying less and to underwriters who remained in profit due to fewer claims - for the time being, at least.

The expectation was that rates for well-managed risks would continue falling throughout 2008 by up to 10 per cent, due to a plentiful supply of capacity combined with a low claim level creating fierce competition between underwriters.

Furthermore, the relatively benign claims environment was a reflection on major advances in recent years in ship design, cargo handling and general maritime safety.

However, Aon was certainly not as optimistic for both the Protection and Indemnity (P&I) and the Hull and Machinery markets saying the tide was turning for P&I, the clubs having announced big rate increases for 2008 in response to a surge in the size of large claims.

Furthermore in Hull and Machinery, losses were beginning to impact the accounts of many insurers, although not as severely as in P&I. Affirmation of this mixed picture came last week from the UK P&I Club that said the high level of large claims seen in 2006 continued into 2007 except for those related to oil pollution that had been at their lowest for five years.

The Nordic marine insurance association CEFOR is also pessimistic about the overall future of all types of marine insurance following 2007 figures that demonstrated an alarming trend with the average hull claim cost rising 86 per cent over the last five years.

With claims costs likely to continue growing in the future, the association has expressed concern that the industry must take further steps to manage costs without risking safety.

Within different segments of marine insurance, the picture remains distressingly consistent and the members of the International Group of P&I Clubs are currently faced with a considerable increase in costs of their pooling arrangement, covering claims in excess of USD seven million. Indeed, the severities of large claims is showing record highs.

The present situation has been precipitated by several contributory factors, both internal and external to the maritime industry - and on the internal front the issue of manning is very relevant.

For some time now the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has expressed concern regarding the growing shortage of skilled and experienced seafarers to man a growing and increasingly technological fleet.

Such is the price for a current shipping boom with resources being stretched by demand but this shortcoming is now impacting directly on insurance claims with an alarming indication of increasing human error statistics as significant contributory causes of marine accidents!

Cost increases

Externally, the current rises in costs of raw materials and services have also been a direct cause of price increases for all claims cost factors and the entire scenario has been adversely affected by the weak US dollar, add to this the increasing complexity of environmentally-aware processes of salvage and wreck removal, then cost increases are being further exacerbated.

Such are the forces that will undoubtedly determine the rises in premium prices that are now set to befall the ship operator and with little change expected in the external factors at play it will be incumbent on the industry as a whole to contain the situation as far as it can.

This must be by internal improvement to reduce the number of insurance claims; otherwise the costs may become exponential.

Such a solution is, of course, easier said than done but is symptomatic of the many fundamental flaws that are present within the global industry where the 'good-guys are carrying the bad guys' - this goes for operators, Flag Administrations and classification societies alike. Until management of risk is properly contained across the entire operational spectrum, the costs will be payable in lieu!

Medevac South of Freeport, Texas

HOUSTON - the Coast Guard medevaced a 42-year-old man from an oil tanker approximately 30 miles south of Freeport, Texas, May 8, 2008. Coast Guard Sector Houston-Galveston received a call at 5 a.m. ...

Happy National Maritime Day!

RS

Hearing Hurricanes

Hearing Hurricanes

David Chandler, MIT News Office

April 9, 2008

Knowing how powerful a hurricane is, before it hits land, can help to save lives or to avoid the enormous costs of an unnecessary evacuation.

Some MIT researchers think there may be a better, cheaper way of getting that crucial information. Click here to listen to an enhanced, but very low-frequency, audio version of the underwater sound of 1999’s Hurricane Gert (above, in a colorized infrared image, courtesy of NOAA).

Makris has been doing theoretical work analyzing this potential method for years, triggered by a conversation he had with MIT professor and hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel. But now he has found the first piece of direct data that confirms his calculations. In a paper accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, Makris and his former graduate student Joshua Wilson show that Hurricane Gert, in 1999, happened to pass nearly over a hydrophone anchored 800 meters deep above the mid-Atlantic Ridge at about the latitude of Puerto Rico, and the same storm was monitored by airplanes within the next 24 hours.

An acoustic sensor key to the joint MIT-Mexico hurricane research is deployed off the coast of Isla Socorro by crew members of the Mexican Research Vessel Altair.

The case produced exactly the results that had been predicted, providing the first experimental validation of the method, Makris said. “There was almost a perfect relationship between the power of the wind and the power of the wind-generated noise,” he said. There was less than 5 percent error—about the same as the errors you get from aircraft measurements.

Satellite monitoring is good at showing the track of a hurricane, Makris said, but not as reliable as aircraft in determining destructive power.

The current warning systems are estimated to save $2.5 billion a year in the United States, and improved systems could save even more, he said. And since many parts of the world that are subject to devastating cyclones cannot afford the cost of hurricane-monitoring aircraft, the potential for saving lives and preventing devastating damage is even greater elsewhere.

“You need to know, do you evacuate or not?” Makris explained. “Both ways, if you get it wrong, there can be big problems.”

To that end, Makris has been collaborating with the Mexican Navy’s Directorate of Oceanography, Hydrography and Meteorology, using a meteorological station on the island of Socorro, off Mexico’s west coast. The island lies in one of the world’s most hurricane-prone areas—an average of three cyclones pass over or near the island every year. The team installed a hydrophone in waters close to the island and is waiting for a storm to come by and provide further validation of the technique.

Makris and Wilson estimate that when there’s a hurricane on its way toward shore, a line of acoustic sensors could be dropped from a small plane into the ocean ahead of the storm’s path, while conditions are still safe, and could then provide detailed information on the storm’s strength to aid in planning and decision-making about possible evacuations. The total cost for such a deployment would be a small fraction of the cost of even a single flight into the storm, they figure.

In addition, permanent lines of such sensors could be deployed offshore in storm-prone areas, such as the Sea of Bengal off India and Bangladesh. And such undersea monitors could have additional benefits besides warning of coming storms.

The hydrophones could be a very effective way of monitoring the amount of sea salt entering the atmosphere as a result of the churning of ocean waves. This sea salt, it turns out, has a major impact on global climate because it scatters solar radiation that regulates the formation of clouds. Direct measurements of this process could help climate modelers to make more accurate estimates of its effects.

The research has been supported by the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Research, ONR Global-Americas, MIT Sea Grant and the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate.

To request more information about this story, click here

WEATHER NOTE

Emergency planners talk about tornadoe

Wednesday, May 14, 2008 5:51 PM CDT
County finalizes disaster preparation plan

By Warren Watkins
The Daily Citizen

With tornadoes skipping and hitting around White County, killing dozens and doing millions of dollars in damage across the state this year, interest in weather safety is keen among local citizens.

Tornado siren sounds were explained by Tamara Jenkins, chairman of the Local Emergency Planning Committee, at the regular monthly meeting Tuesday.

“We have a warning tone, which is a constant horn that may go up and down in tone slowly as the siren rotates,” Jenkins said. “It is repeated every three to five minutes automatically until the ‘all clear’ is sounded manually. The ‘all clear’ tone goes up and down quickly from high to low.”

At noon every Wednesday the tornado sirens are tested all over the county, including Searcy.

“Tornado sirens in the county are set off by the county 911 dispatch center,” Jenkins said. “We can do individual towns. We don’t have to set off the whole county.”

Some Jackson County sirens which can be heard in Velvet Ridge are different in tone, Jenkins said.

“As long as we have a tornado warning in effect for the county, the sirens will go off periodically,” said Conway Helm, a Higginson firefighter.

Used to warn people who are outside, not inside a building, tornado sirens are complemented by radios, sold in local retail outlets, that warn those inside buildings of bad weather.

“We’re pushing all-hazard radios now,” Jenkins said. “You’ll also get notified of hazardous spill evacuations with them.”

In other business, Jenkins told the committee the county’s mitigation plan had been updated since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit and would soon be uploaded to the Internet. The mitigation plan, a proactive blueprint for planning ahead to minimize damage from natural disasters such as floods, tornados and earthquakes, has been approved by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

“In the mitigation plan we identify the possibilities and try to prepare for what the county can do to help people in areas before a disaster hits — maybe we can raise roads or something,” Jenkins said.

The county’s emergency operations plan was completed earlier and is found online at the White County Sheriff’s Office Web page, WhiteCountyAR.org. That plan details how resources in the county will be used in the event of a disaster.

“Had the City of Clinton known we had a mobile command unit, they would have requested it during the aftermath of their tornado because they lost all power in their police station,” Jenkins said.

The gymnasium at Arkansas State University-Beebe has now been designated as a mass feeding station and restroom facility in the event of a disaster.

As of May 7, there were 46 individuals who have applied for assistance from FEMA for damage resulting from flooding along the White and Little Red rivers in White County and $78,000 has already been disbursed.

The county with the most applications from that flooding so far has been Phillips County, with 249, and Woodruff County leads with largest amount disbursed with $235,000.

MARITIME NOTE

More than 700 escape blazing ferry

More than 700 passengers escaped from an Indonesian ferry that caught fire shortly before reaching its destination on Borneo, officials said.

The ship was making its way upriver to the port town of Sampit when flames broke out on the top passenger deck, assistant police Lt Suwarno said.

All passengers were believed to have been safely evacuated, said district chief Wahyudi Anwa. Four people were taken to hospital, he said.

The boat was approaching Sampit in the Mentaya river, around 500 miles north-east of Jakarta, when the fire started, said Mr Suwarno, who like many Indonesians goes by a single name.

The ferry had travelled from Surabaya, the provincial capital of East Java, to Central Kalimantan on the Indonesian half of Borneo, with at least 706 passengers and 22 crew.

Boats are a main source of transportation in Indonesia, a vast archipelago with more than 17,000 islands. Overcrowding and poorly enforced safety standards cause frequent accidents.

RS

Atmosphere Threatened By Nitrogen Pollutants Entering Ocean

Atmosphere Threatened By Nitrogen Pollutants Entering Ocean

ScienceDaily (May 16, 2008) — A large quantity of nitrogen compounds -- emitted into the atmosphere by humans through the burning of fossil fuels and the use of nitrogen fertilizers -- enters the oceans and may lead to the removal of some carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, concluded a team of international scientists led by Texas A&M University Distinguished Professor of Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences Robert Duce.

The team of 30 experts from institutions around the world presented its conclusions in the current issue of the journal Science.

Human-caused atmospheric nitrogen compounds are carried by wind and deposited into the ocean, where they act as a fertilizer and lead to increased production of marine plant life. The increase in plant life causes more carbon dioxide to be drawn from the atmosphere into the ocean. This process results in the removal of about 10 percent of the human-caused carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, thus potentially reducing the climate warming potential, according to the team's paper.

However, some of the nitrogen deposited in the ocean is re-processed to form another nitrogen compound called nitrous oxide, which is then released back into the atmosphere from the ocean. Nitrous oxide is a powerful greenhouse gas itself -- about 300 times more powerful per molecule than carbon dioxide -- thus cancelling out about two-thirds of the apparent gain from the carbon dioxide removal, Duce explained. "But of course, the whole system is so complex that we're still rather unsure about what some of the other impacts might be within the ocean," he said.

In most areas of the ocean, nitrogen is the nutrient that limits the production of plant life, Duce said. So when all of the nitrogen in an area of the surface ocean is used up, no more plant life forms in that area. The team found that human-caused nitrogen deposits account for up to one-third of the external input of nitrogen into the ocean, and this increase in nitrogen available for the production of plant life causes more plants to form, Duce explained.

Oceanic plant life is produced from marine carbon (bicarbonate) in the ocean, and that amount of bicarbonate is in equilibrium with the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. So when more bicarbonate is used up to produce marine plant life, it disrupts the equilibrium, and carbon dioxide is drawn down to the ocean from the atmosphere to restore the balance, Duce explained.

Thus, the human-caused nitrogen fertilization of the ocean removes some of the most important greenhouse gas -- carbon dioxide -- from the atmosphere, Duce said. This gain, however, is offset by the nitrogen compound, nitrous oxide, that also forms in the ocean due to the nitrogen fertilization and is re-emitted into the atmosphere as a powerful greenhouse gas, he added.

"If you don't consider the impact of human-caused nitrogen when trying to model climate change, you're missing a possibly significant part of the overall carbon cycle as well as the nitrogen cycle," Duce said. "So nitrogen deposition is potentially a very important factor in the climate change issue."

According to the team's calculations, about 54 million tons of nitrogen produced from human activities entered the ocean from the atmosphere in the year 2000. The team also found that the current nitrogen emissions are about 10 times what they were in 1860, Duce said. He added that the amount of nitrogen entering the atmosphere is expected to rise in the coming decades with the increase in demand for energy and fertilizers, and the team estimates that by the year 2030, human-caused nitrogen emissions will have risen to around 62 million tons per year.

"Clearly, there is much that we do not know about the extent and timescale of the impacts of this nitrogen deposition on the oceans and the subsequent feedbacks to the climate system," Duce said. "The implications are complex and interactive, and this is a very important issue that policy makers need to address and that scientists trying to model and understand the future of climate and climate change need to take into consideration."

WEATHER NOTE

Storm Chasers to Avoid Chasing Storms in Crane County
by Michael Stafford

NewsWest 9

A recent arrest in Crane County is keeping some storm chasers out of that part of West Texas.

You may recall last week, we showed you that Deputy arresting a professional storm chaser who was helping the Weather Service, and had refused to leave the area.

Now, the head of one storm chasing group says many professionals and volunteers plan to avoid Crane County in the future.

Those volunteers and professionals associated with the National Association of Storm Chasers and Spotters or NASCAS is the group we've been speaking with.

The acting Director, Warren Faidley, says in 20 years he's never had any problems with law enforcement.

In fact, he says troopers and officers have welcomed their help during times of severe weather, because they're helping protect the public.

Faidley tells NewsWest Nine they're going to avoid Crane County in the future, because they believe another arrest is immenent if they go there.

"Well, I think the main reason we're upset is because there were numerous witnesses and also video. So there was very little question of what actually occurred. I think with that kind of information you can draw a pretty fair conclusion. So, a lot of people I've spoken to from storm spotters to storm chasers and just everybody in between from researchers to news people from out of the area are pretty much going to try to avoid the area," Faidley said.

The Sheriff's Office has maintained the Deputy was in the right, and that the storm chaser was obstructing the highway, which is a Class B Misdemeanor.

Crane County does have its own volunteers from that area, but as Faidley says it's always good to have a professional organization assisting with the process when lives are in danger.

Only time will tell what affect this may have on Crane County when severe weather hits there in the future.

Ten Deadliest U.S. Tornadoes

1. 695…Tri-State Tornado…March 18, 1925
2. 317…Natchez, Mississippi…May 7, 1849
3. 255…St. Louis, MO…May 27, 1896
4. 203…Gainesville, GA…April 6, 1936
5. 216…Tupelo, Mississippi…April 5, 1936
6. 181…Woodward, Oklahoma…April 9, 1947
7. 143…Amite, Louisiana to Purvis, Mississippi…April 24, 1908
8. 117…New Richmond, Wisconsin…June 12, 1899
9. 115…Flint, Michigan…June 8, 1953
10. 114…Waco, Texas…May 11, 1953

Source: Christopher Burt’s book Extreme Weather…

MARITIME NOTE

Yachtsman's £40k boat sinks under the waves

A MAJOR salvage operation was underway last night to lift a £40,000 yacht which sank in the Menai Strait as its owner celebrated his 60th birthday.

Trevor Shirley was spending the weekend with his wife at Anglesey’s Gazelle hotel as a treat, when his precious boat slipped beneath the waves.

The couple had launched the yacht from Beaumaris on Friday, and sailed her in the Puffin Island area before mooring her opposite the hotel, where she could be seen in her full glory.

But when they came down from breakfast on Sunday the boat – called the Hindsight – had disappeared from view.

Mr Shirley, from Warrington, had spent the winter refitting the yacht to a gleaming condition.

Hotel owner Mary Brain was serving breakfast on Sunday morning when the couple realised something was wrong.

"They came down for breakfast and said let’s go and have look at the boat, but it wasn’t there," said Mary.

"It was launched on Friday and it must have gone down on Saturday night or Sunday morning," she said.

The couple were devastated when they realised that the mast sticking out of the water was the vessel that was their pride and joy.

A salvage team from Beaumaris Marine Services was called and divers checked the stricken vessel on Monday morning and sealed the fuel tanks.

Diver Scott Waterman from Quest Diving, Menai Bridge, inspected the hull on his first dive.

"The water was very clear on Monday and the sea was flat calm," said Scott, who has been involved in three other similar rescues.

"It was obvious the vessel hadn’t been involved in a collision as the hull was completely intact.

"She was still on the mooring but that hadn’t fouled so the reason for the sinking is still unknown," he said.

On Wednesday Scott and his team fixed lifting strops to the boat’s hull and attached 12 tonne flotation bags.

"We took gas down there and inflated the bags until she started to lift and that pulled her off the bottom," said Scott.

"Timing was quite important because it has to be done at slack water otherwise the boat’s volume causes too much drag," he said.

Yesterday onlookers praised the salvage team for their efforts as the boat partially resurfaced back into view.

"The boat came up in the upright position which is also very important for bringing it back to shore," said Scott.

As the high tide ebbed the salvage team were able to pump the water out of her hull and were hoping to refloat her on the next high tide today (Thursday).

Mr Shirley, who had spent months refurbishing his boat was to upset too talk about the incident but the salvage team believe the boat can be repaired.

RS

Investigation Underway on Norwegian Dawn

Investigation Underway on Norwegian Dawn

Both the F.B.I. and Bermuda authorities boarded Norwegian Cruise Line's Norwegian Dawn this morning to begin their joint investigation into what exactly happened to Mindy Jordan, the 46-year-old New Jersey woman who went overboard last Sunday night, according to The Royal Gazette, one of Bermuda's major newspapers.

The ship arrived as scheduled at Bermuda's King's Wharf this morning, a few minutes after 8 a.m. EDT. Passengers were allowed to debark within a short period of time.

Other than that, very little is known at this time. The Bermuda authorities and the F.B.I. are conducting interviews and forensic examinations to help determine the cause of the accident, and the Coast Guard is conducting a Marine Casualty probe to determine what part, if any, the ship or the cruise line played in this tragedy.

According to a report on the Asbury Park Press' Web site, F.B.I. spokesman Jim Margolin said "Among the things we're going to try to determine is whether a crime occurred," adding that he isn't certain how long that might take. Also, according to the news story, certain items were taken from the home of Jordan's mother after she was interviewed, including photographs allegedly showing Jordan with bruises inflicted by Caputo.

Cruise Critic member Robhink is onboard Dawn and claims that the investigation on the ship has been low-key and quiet, especially for people who are not on the 9th deck, where the accident took place.

"There were a couple [of] other interesting items that I'm sure will be brought up in reviews of this cruise after it's over," Robhink posts on the Norwegian Cruise Line forum, "such as leaking in and around the casino area from the large (40+ foot waves) that were hitting the ship yesterday."

Coincidentally, Norwegian Dawn was the ship that was hit with a nearly 70-foot rogue wave near the Bahamas almost exactly three years ago.

Spokespersons for the cruise line were unable to provide additional information about the investigation at this time. We will continue to monitor the situation and bring you updates as they are made available to us.

--by Jana Jones, Cruise Critic contributor

Shipping hard hit by skills shortage

The skills shortage has hit crisis levels in South Africa's maritime industry, MPs heard on Wednesday.

"There is a chronic, chronic shortage of skills," SA Maritime Safety Authority (Samsa) CEO Tsietsi Mokhele told parliament's transport portfolio committee.

Briefing members on challenges facing the local maritime industry, he said many highly-skilled marine personnel had reached, or were about to reach, retirement age, resulting in an increasing dependence on expensive expatriate labour.

"Every entity I know of in the maritime industry is battling with attracting the right maritime skills. As a result, we are spending two-to-three times more than what we should be paying."

Mokhele said implementation of transformation initiatives in the maritime sector had been "hugely lacking" compared to other industries.

"As a result, there hasn't been an infusion of skills into the industry," he said.

A well-placed source in the maritime industry, who declined to be named, told Sapa the skills shortage was a huge problem.

"But it's not exactly breaking news... the problem has been looming for the past 15 years, and everyone in the sector has seen this coming and done next to nothing about it.

"The local shipping industry has put little into training; government has done little to promote maritime training; and, now, there are no replacements for those skilled people who are retiring.

"Affirmative action has also had a negative impact on South Africa's harbours, with unsuitable candidates selected for many of the training courses, resulting in a huge drop-out rate," the source said.

Mokhele told the committee that government had given "inadequate attention" to the country's maritime industry.

There was a lack of policy on the maritime transport sector, and a lack of support and incentive programmes for key maritime industries and initiatives.

"From a competitive point of view, if one looks at shipbuilding and repair, South Africa has a huge advantage. The country has a huge industrial base in terms of steel... and [labour]... but there aren't targeted incentive programmes to drive [this]," he said.

Mokhele also told MPs that South Africa's Shipping Register -- the official list of merchant vessels flying the national flag -- was outdated and uncompetitive.

"Today, I come here to report there is only one ship left on the register, and that one, I am told, could be de-commissioned at any time now. This is compared to 60 vessels in 1990."

He also warned of a lack of technological capacity to monitor foreign vessels in South African waters.

"Our capacity to track and monitor vessels at sea is non-existent," Mokhele said.

This had become clear during the recent incident involving the Chinese vessel carrying arms for Zimbabwe. The authorities were unable to say where the ship was headed, or pinpoint its position after it left Durban harbour.

Further, South Africa was lagging when it came to installing a Long Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT) system, which it was required to do, in terms of international agreement, by January 1 next year.

LRIT is a satellite-based security system used for tracking the movement of large ships around the globe. In terms of agreement, South Africa is obliged to implement the system to monitor shipping passing within 1000 nautical miles (about 1500km) of its coastline.

"Unfortunately, as a country, I don't think we've done the basic work...We don't have the technology."

Initial estimates were that installing the up to 150 base stations required would cost about R75 million.

Mokhele said Samsa was preparing a plan to tackle this matter, which would be ready in August for presenting to government. - Sap

MARITIME NOTE

USCG – National Safe Boating Week

The US Coast Guard issued a press release reminding the public that the period May 17-23 is National Safe Boating Week. (5/15/08).

NOAA – transition of GPS user equipment

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seeks comments on a plan to transition the installed base of codeless and semi-codeless Global Positioning System (GPS) user equipment to next-generation equipment utilizing the modernized civil GPS signals known as L2C and L5. Comments should be submitted by June 16. 73 Fed. Reg. 28433 (May 16, 2008).


WEATHER NOTE

Teddy Allen: Time to play 'Name That Storm'

Got any balsa wood I can borrow?

It's Wednesday, a little after five in the morning, and I am writing, for the first time, while wearing a life preserver, somewhat disconcerting considering I am sitting in the front room of my home.

My kingdom for a kayak.

This will most likely be the final effort of mine. Flood and all. I don't do good writing underwater. So let me take this moment to say I've enjoyed all our experiences together. On dry land. Back when there was some.

It is not raining sheets. It is raining blankets and comforters. Entire bedroom suites.

I don't know whether (weather?) to try to send you these words through the Thursday newspaper, which we will probably have to print on bamboo or Styrofoam, or just float it to your driveway in a bottle.

It's raining cats and dogs. It's raining the whole barnyard. It's raining everything but the kitchen sink and the cattle trough.

If you're lucky enough to have a Bible and a boatload of cypress wood handy, consult Genesis 6 for all your ark-building instruction needs. (I'm swimming toward your house with my hammer as soon as I'm done here.)

Mesmerized as I am by the steady kathump kathump kathump of the windshield wipers on my typewriter, my mind has wandered to the "2008 hurricane and tropical storm names list," which I thumbed through recently, when my hands were dry and my fingertips didn't look like prunes. And I can't help but notice: We have a shot for Hurricane Teddy, interesting to me since that's my name. (Teddy, not Hurricane. My middle name is Wind Gust.)

Arthur is the first name on the list, followed by Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. An eclectic list it is. Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred bring up the rear.

Here are the questions:

When there's a hurricane named after you, do you hope it fizzles out in the Atlantic or do you hope it blows its way into the record books? A fellow meteorologist friend of mine named Donnie Golfgame posed this very inquiry to me.

"I'm not sure where I stand on wanting my namesake hurricane to 'measure up,'" he said. I agree. For the past couple of years, a lot of Louisiana people aren't too happy their parents named them Katrina, I imagine. (Especially if they're men.)

By the way, Hurricane Don is set for 2011, so my man has four years to sweat it out. I'll know if I'm a dud or a stud, storm-wise, by the end of the summer.

My other question:

If there's a good reason behind naming hurricanes, why don't we name tornadoes, storms or showers in general? Why not give them some pub? I feel Wednesday's "storm event" was worthy of some proper noun notice, don't you?

Frank Flood? Flood Event Frank?

Work with me here ... .

How about Sunrise Sam or Sunset Sylvia?

"How about," Donnie said to me, "Hailstorm Harry. Or skip the alliteration and it could be Snowstorm Bill. On the other hand, like Summer Shower Shakespeare said, 'What's in a name?,' anyway?"

Plenty of water, that's what, if the storm is anything like Wednesday's, which started Tuesday.

Quick story: About 8:30 Tuesday night, when the home opener of the Shreveport Sports was officially postponed due to rain and lightning, the Sports' home clubhouse attendants, good guys (and, fortunately, good swimmers) were dispatched to pick up 36 CiCi's pizzas, a postgame spread for the home and visiting teams. Unfortunately, on their way back to the ballpark, their car stalled in high water — as did the pizzas, which were left floating, abandoned on the deep end of a Hearne Avenue intersection. Too bad the postgame spread wasn't fish.

Ouch.

We're talking water deserving of a name. Freddie Flood?

What about Donald Drought. Felicia Famine?

Tsunami could be tricky. Is that a Tsunami Tommy or a Tsunami Sue?

Just wondering. You can get back to me on it. When you're done dog-paddling.

Emergency planning officials practice with fake storm

By Patrick Cassidy

STAFF WRITER

May 15, 2008 6:00 AM

CAMP EDWARDS — The weather during yesterday's hurricane was beautiful.

Despite the clear conditions, participants in a storm simulation at the Massachusetts Military Reservation prepared for the worst. Not far from the barracks that housed evacuees from Hurricane Katrina three years earlier, emergency officials tested a traffic plan for Conan, a fictitious hurricane that made virtual landfall on Cape Cod under yesterday's bright blue sky.

The exercise was the most realistic simulation yet of what would happen if there was a mass exodus from the Cape, organizers said. "This time, we've had a more formal update of the plan," said David Procopio, spokesman for the Massachusetts State Police, the lead agency in the plan's development.

The plan has been adjusted for recent changes, particularly the elimination of the Sagamore Rotary and the construction of the flyover in its place, Procopio said. "That has been historically the cork in the bottle," he said.

If a storm such as Conan approached, state police would shut down the Route 6 Exit 1 on-ramp at the bottom of the Sagamore Bridge to keep traffic flowing steadily off-Cape, according to the plan.

If the bridges over the Cape Cod Canal are closed or damaged, motorists attempting to leave the peninsula on Route 28 or Route 6 would be redirected onto the military reservation.

While there were some bugs to fix — including communications foul-ups and misplaced personnel — that was the point, officials said. "This is what brings a theoretical application in a book and on paper into reality," Robert Nadeau, director for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, Region 2, told simulation participants gathered in a large room before the start of yesterday's drill.

Players in the simulation included the local chapter of the American Red Cross and Barnstable County emergency planning and response officials. Cadets from the Massachusetts Maritime Academy sat in as fake tourists foiled during an escape from the Cape.

Andrew Klein, an emergency management major at the academy, first became interested in disaster-response work after Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005.

Klein was joined by 15 other cadets for yesterday's exercise. The blue-uniformed students were dropped off at the mess hall of one of the base's barracks with an assortment of simulated ailments and situations.

One was pregnant. Another had a broken leg. A third spoke only French.

Red Cross officials directed the "tourists" to different corners of the room for registration, translation services and medical attention.

Most of the cadets were escorted to barracks, where they were given supplies and a room.

"Three thousand is what these six dorms can handle," said Glen Beasley, executive director of the Cape's chapter of the Red Cross.

The rooms would normally hold between two and four soldiers, but mats and cots would increase the capacity to between four and six occupants, with a priority toward keeping families together, Beasley said.

Another dormitory would be set aside for pets in the event of a real storm, he said.

Patrick Cassidy can be reached at pcassidy@capecodonline.com.

RS