UK RNLI: 7834 People Rescued, but 'too many MOB's

7834 People Rescued, but 'too many MOB's

In 2007, 'one of the busiest years on record', a whopping 7,834 people were rescued by the UK's Royal National Lifeboat Institution (RNLI) lifeboats and over half of lifeboat launches were to leisure craft। However, the most worrying news was the increase in Man Overboard rescues

The final RNLI rescue figures for 2007 also show an increase in the number of man overboard incidents for leisure craft – rising from 161 (2006) to 201 (2007), up 25% from 2006. Commenting on the rise in RNLI rescues to man overboard incidents, RNLI Sea Safety Manager, Peter Chennell says: Although only a relatively small percentage of the total reasons for lifeboat call-outs to leisure boaters, it’s worrying to see such a large increase in man overboard incidents.

It is hoped the boating public have started to take on board the RNLI’s lifejacket awareness campaign message, useless unless worn. We’re aiming to encourage more of the boating community to automatically put their lifejackets on when they go to sea and decide when to take them off, because experience tells us that in an emergency there is not always time to make sure your lifejacket is securely and correctly fitted. Wearing a lifejacket is one of the RNLI’s five sea safety tips along with: checking your engine and fuel; telling others where you’re going; carrying some means of calling for help; and keeping an eye on weather and tides.’ Final figures show that the RNLI’s lifeboats were launched 8,141 times during 2007, rescuing 7,834 people. More than half of the 8,141 RNLI lifeboat launches – 4,287 – were to recreational sea users in leisure craft. This figure is down slightly on 2006 rescues (4,361), perhaps due to the unseasonable weather in the early summer months. Of the 4,287 RNLI lifeboat launches to leisure craft in 2007 almost half (43%) were to powered craft2, well over a third (40%) of lifeboat launches were to the aid of sailing craft3 and 17% were to manual leisure craft4.

The major cause for RNLI lifeboat launches to (manual, power and sailing) leisure craft, as in previous years, was overwhelmingly machinery failure (29% of incidents), this is followed by craft being stranded or grounded (13%) and vessels meeting adverse weather conditions (9%) as the three main causes for lifeboat launches to leisure craft in 2007.

The top three reasons for lifeboat launches to each specific type of leisure craft in 2007 were machinery or engine failure for both power and sailing leisure craft, while the impact of adverse weather conditions was the main reason for lifeboat launches to manual leisure craft। Despite fewer visitors to the coast during the early summer months5 due to the unseasonable weather, RNLI lifeboats and lifeguards continued to respond to a high number of calls for help, as more and more people are using the water and beaches for leisure pursuits. RNLI lifeguards, who were operational on 71 beaches in the south west of England and East Anglia, rescued 1,350 people, came to the aid of a further 9,883 people and responded to 8,201 incidents. The wet summer weather also meant that the RNLI’s Flood Rescue Team and volunteer lifeboat crews were particularly active inland, rescuing another 200 people in flood hit areas across the UK during the summer months.

Lunar Eclipse - Gallery Images

Brian A. Morganti posted a couple of gallery images from the total lunar eclipse he observed in southeastern PA this past Wednesday evening, February 20th.

BE READY CAMPAIGN

EMA wants churches to be safe in severe weather

By Scott Mims

So much severe weather awareness information is geared toward the home. Experts urge families to put together safety plans and stock up on supplies in case the unexpected happens.

But what if you are not in your home when severe weather strikes? What if, like many church congregations in Chilton County this past Sunday, you find yourself in your place of worship?

Chilton County Emergency Management/Homeland Security Director Bill Collum says churches need to make sure they have a way of being alerted when severe weather warnings are given.

"We have a basement in our church," said Collum, who attends Heritage Church of the Nazarene in Clanton. "Our plan is when the warning siren goes off, everyone goes to the basement."

But what if no one hears the outdoor warning system go off? The sirens are intended only to warn those who happen to be outdoors at the time of warning.

Tragically, that was the case on March 24, 1994 when a tornado outbreak resulted in several fatalities at Goshen United Methodist Church in Piedmont.

Collum doesn't want history to repeat itself here in Chilton County. He has already worked with several local churches to develop safety plans including Liberty Hill, Mars Hill and Verbena Baptist Church.

Church safety plans require key people to be trained in helping direct the congregation to safety. This includes assisting the elderly, manning a flashlight and monitoring a weather radio.

A NOAA weather radio would be a wise investment for any church, Collum noted.

"It's the same stuff you would do with a home plan, except you're in a church," he said.

Because many churches already keep a steady supply of food and water on hand, being prepared wouldn't require too many purchases, he added.

Any church is encouraged to contact the Chilton County EMA if they are interested in developing a safety plan for their congregation. The EMA office may be reached at 755-0900.

"We would love to get it in every church," Collum said. "We want to make all churches aware of the need to be prepared."

March 2-8 is severe weather week in Indiana

From Gov. Mitch Daniels’ office:

To focus Hoosiers’ attention on the threats posed by tornadoes and thunderstorms, Governor Mitch Daniels has proclaimed March 2-8, 2008, as Severe Weather Preparedness Week. The National Weather Service will conduct a statewide test of communication systems on Wednesday, March 5 between 1030 AM and 1100 AM EST and between 700 PM and 730 PM EST. Friday March 7 is the make-up drill day if weather postpones Wednesday’s drill.

These tests should be used as times to practice your plan.

The goal of Severe Weather Preparedness Week is to better educate people about the hazards of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, and to help everyone be prepared should severe weather occur.

The Indiana Department of Homeland Security (IDHS) is offering these tips during times of severe weather.

Tornado Safety Tips

*Basements, inner rooms of a house, and storm cellars provide the best protection.

*Stay away from exterior walls, windows, and doors. Stay in the center of the room.

*If you are in your car do NOT try and outrun the tornado because it can switch direction and can cover lots of ground quickly.

*Get out of vehicle and go into a strong building if possible. If not, lie flat in a ditch or low area and cover your head.

*Do NOT go under overpasses, wind speeds actually increase under them and can suck you out!

*If you live in a mobile home, get out IMMEDIATELY. Take shelter in a building with a strong foundation.

*Listen to radio or watch TV so you can be alerted about your current situation.

Thunderstorm Safety Tips

*If a thunderstorm is coming postpone or cancel outdoor activity.

*Do NOT go near tall trees or any other tall objects.

*Seek shelter inside a building or in a hardtop vehicle, but don’t touch any of the metal inside.

*Do NOT use the telephone. Stay away from other electronic devices, bare metal, and water.

*Do NOT go near downed power lines.

*Keep your eye on the sky as well listen to weather reports on the radio or TV.

*If caught out in the middle of a large body of water, return to shore as soon as possible. Get off the water immediately.

*If caught out in middle of an open field: If walking with others stay a minimum of 10 feet apart; Also, keep low and move quickly to seek shelter. If there is no shelter lay in a ditch or get to the lowest place around.

For more information about preparedness for severe weather and other emergencies, go to Indiana Department of Homeland Security (IDHS).

MICHIGAN SKYWARN TRAINING

Severe weather watchers training Tuesday

Thomas Marcetti, Staff Writer

517.437.6014

The National Weather Service is offering its SkyWarn training in Hillsdale Tuesday evening.

Doug Sanford, Hillsdale County Emergency Management director, said the training is normally done every year, but they missed last year because of adverse weather.

“The training is for public safety and amateur radio operators, but is open to the public,” he said. “These are the people who are going to give us advance warnings about serve weather.”

Severe weather spotter training offered in Fishers, Indiana

The National Weather Service will conduct severe weather spotter training from 7 to 9 p.m. March 6 at the Fishers Town Hall auditorium.

The training session, hosted by the Fishers Fire Department, is free and is open to the general public.

A representative from the National Weather Service will describe cloud and wind patterns associated with severe weather, how to interpret weather radar data, and how to remain safe during severe weather.

“This is a great opportunity for anyone with an interest in weather, or who is expected to be able to identify and report severe weather at an official level,” said Ron Lipps, public information officer for the Fishers Fire Department.

Additional information about this and other National Weather Service presentations can be found at www.weather.gov/ind.

Alabama Severe Weather Awareness Week is Next Week

There's kind of a sad irony here, but next week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in the State of Alabama. The week for Tennessee occurs the following week (February 24-29).

The sad irony comes, of course, because of the extraordinary circumstances of the now-infamous "Super Tuesday" tornado outbreak last week. For many of us, the EF-4 tornadoes that devastated parts of Lawrence and Jackson counties served as a terrible wake-up call that such tornadoes can indeed happen here (though we had dodged bullets for so long). Even worse, they occurred in the middle of the night, outside of the traditional spring severe weather "season".

Each day next week will be devoted to a different severe weather topic, whether it's hazards like severe thunderstorms or lightning, or awareness tools such as NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio. If you don't have one already, this is a good time of year to buy a weather radio in preparation for the spring season--or to check the batteries in your radio in case of a power outage. If you have a new weather radio, be sure to check the NWS Huntsville weather radio page--it has recently been double-checked and expanded with more information, including a helpful programming guide for some common radios.

MARITIME NOTES:

Opening Ceremony of "K" Line Maritime Academy - Philippines

Tokyo, Japan, Feb 22, 2008 - (JCN Newswire) - In May 2006, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. ("K" Line) introduced "K" Line Maritime Academy (KLMA) for securing and fostering "K" Line Seafarers as the principle and one of the various initiatives in the establishment of a ship management structure geared to sustain safety and quality and to promote the planned expansion of business operations advocated in the company's revised interim management plan "K" LINE Vision 2008+.

"K" Line established "K" Line Maritime Academy (Philippines) as a main focus of this concept at Pasay City in The Philippines, and "Opening Ceremony" was held on 22nd February 2008 at the Academy with Her Excellency President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and many delegations from The Philippine Government, Seafarers Educational Institution and other related interests in attendance.

The Academy is the key facility of KLMA and each training course will be carried out in accordance "K" Line's fundamental philosophy that fosters the development of "K" Line Seafarers regardless of nationality by using KLMA Basic Training Matrix and Syllabus.

As for navigation officers, the Academy will conduct training for prevention of ship collision and grounding in congested waters and narrow straits, using the new ship handling simulator, and will ensure that trainees thoroughly understand the "do's and don'ts" concerning safety and quality. With an LNG training course in accordance with SIGTTO Standard and using cargo handling simulator of LNG carrier, the Academy will conduct training in order to secure thoroughly safe and efficient cargo works.

As for engineers, the Academy will conduct training for maintenance of piston, cylinder and so on using the actual main engine with two cylinders. By using a learning system incorporating full-mission engine room simulator, the Academy will conduct training in order to acquire basic knowledge of Engine Room Systems and Machineries as well as exercise on trouble shooting of various systems. In addition, the Academy will conduct training using actual vessel equipment and also stress management training, team work training and so on.

In addition to providing the above latest simulator at KLMA (Philippines), we have installed accommodations and dining room for 110 people, and will be able to accept a total of 10,000 trainees per year regardless of nationality.

Furthermore, a clinic furnished with modern equipment has been set up and will manage the health of all seafarers who go onboard "K" Line group vessels.

To supply highly-skilled seafarers, various "K" Line groups are at work and are the main force behind the training center project, aiming to assure maintenance and further improvement of the "K" Line brand of Security, Safety and Trust.

"What if...The Cosco Busan Happened in New York Harbor??"

NEW YORK, February 7, 2008: On February 27th, the North American Maritime Ministry Association (NAMEPA), in conjunction with New York Maritime Inc. (NYMAR), will be presenting a Response Simulation "What if…the Cosco Busan happened in New York Harbor. Will we be prepared??" Developed by the USCG Sector New York, the Simulation will replicate the events of the Cosco Busan incident which occurred last year in San Francisco - but in New York. The various stakeholders including owners, responders, cargo interests, and government agencies will be participating at the event which will be held in midtown at 4:00PM. (Continued)

THE CROSSING - A TRIBUTE TO ALL MARINERS
By Kristi Bitgood Kelty



RS

TRAGEDY SPAWNS HEROES: THE MAKING OF THE COAST GUARD HELICOPTER RESCUE SWIMMER PROGRAM

TRAGEDY SPAWNS HEROES:
THE MAKING OF THE COAST GUARD HELICOPTER RESCUE SWIMMER PROGRAM

By Petty Officer 2nd Class Christopher Evanson Fifth District Public Affairs

5 years ago, a tragic event claimed the lives of 31 Merchant Marines, and the Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer Program was conceived to prevent such disasters from ever happening again. The program has been a guardian angel to many fates nearly taken by the sea.

On the morning of Feb. 12, 1983, gale force winds and 40-foot waves wreaked havoc off the coast of the small Eastern Shore community of Chincoteague, Va. Conditions were the perfect recipe for disaster, a recipe that eventually claimed the lives of 31 mariners by day's end. This tragic event proved to be more catastrophic because the Coast Guard was not prepared to respond. The sad conclusion of the S.S. Marine Electric served as a humbling blow to Coast Guard readiness, and the motto of Semper Paratus. The sacrifice of these mariners, however, indirectly saved the lives of thousands of men and women who would confront the mercy of the sea in the years to follow. The doom of the Marine Electric spawned the Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer Program, and a new generation of lifesavers at sea.

Tragedy at Sea

The S.S. Marine Electric, a 587-foot motor vessel transporting coal departed Norfolk, Va., for Brayton Point, Mass., on Feb. 10, 1983. Thirty-four merchant mariners were aboard as a winter storm pummeled the lower Chesapeake Bay.If four-foot seas within the bay were harsh, the seas awaiting the Marine Electric in the open ocean were in excess of 40 feet.

On Feb. 12, 1983, at approximately 2:51 a.m., a Coast Guard watch stander in Ocean City, Md., was notified by the master of the Marine Electric, reporting his vessel was taking on water near the front end of the ship. By 3 a.m., the entire crew was mustered on deck near the starboard lifeboats preparing to abandon ship. At a quarter after 4 a.m., as the merchant mariners were preparing the lifeboats, the ship was struck by a powerful jolt, possibly a rogue wave, capsizing the vessel to the starboard side. The Marine Electric crew was thrown into the frigid Mid-Atlantic waters recorded at 37 degrees Fahrenheit approximately 30-miles off the coast of Chincoteague. What was an initial distress call now became a massive search and rescue case, but the following events proved far more difficult than ever imagined.

At the time, Coast Guard flight crews did not have the ability or power to deploy rescue swimmers in the sea to recover victims. As strange as it may seem, a crewmember simply lowered a rescue basket from the helicopter in the vicinity of a distressed person in the water. The rescue relied almost entirely on the victim mustering the strength to get in the basket on his or her own. In cold temperatures where shock and hypothermia were prevalent, this practice proved futile.

When a Coast Guard helicopter crew based at Air Station Elizabeth City, N.C., arrived on-scene shortly after 5 a.m., the water was flush with strobe lights, yet little sign of life existed. Not until 6:05 a.m. was a Navy rescue swimmer able to assist with the recovery. The Navy dispatched a helicopter crew from Naval Air Station Oceana in Virginia Beach, Va., which had rescue swimmers trained for search and rescue. One-by-one with the help of the crew of the 82-foot Coast Guard Cutter Point Highland, the Navy rescue swimmer recovered the bodies of the Marine Electric crew from the surface; nearly three hours after the vessel capsized.

Of the 34-crewmembers aboard the Marine Electric, 27 people were recovered; only three survived. Seven Marine Electric crewmembers were never found, possibly still aboard the ship. The deceased were later pronounced dead by medical examiners who indicated the cause of death to be hypothermia and or drowning. Meanwhile, as the sun rose, the Marine Electric had already begun a slow descent into oblivion, beneath the sea where it lay in perpetuity.

Aftermath

Following this tragedy, the Coast Guard launched one of the biggest Marine Board of Investigations in its history. Making the case more overwhelming were congressional representatives seeking to know how such a disaster could happen, and more importantly how can a similar scenario be averted. After several congressional hearings, the Coast Guard Authorization Act of 1984 was passed to ensure the Coast Guard was properly equipped to respond to such cases. An excerpt of the act reads, "The Commandant of the Coast Guard shall use such sums as are necessary, from amounts appropriated for the operational maintenance of the Coast Guard, to establish a helicopter rescue swimmer program for the purpose of training selected Coast Guard personnel in rescue swimming skills."

Introduction of the Guardian

"The Aviation Survival Technician (AST) rating's job which was created in 1969 has always been to inspect and maintain life support equipment, perform ground handling and servicing of aircraft, and conduct aviation administration duties," said Master Chief Petty Officer Donald Murray, Coast Guard Aviation Survival Technician Rating Force Manager.

The Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer Program would become an extension of the AST mission objective, beginning very subtly in the fall of 1984, as a result of the Marine Electric tragedy. The Coast Guard joined forces withthe Navy, which permitted prospective Coast Guard helicopter rescue swimmers to train with fellow Navy swimmers at the U. S. Navy Rescue Swimmer School at Naval Air Station Pensacola, Fla. The rating initially known as Aviation Survivalman or ASM graduated five members in this first class.

After a few years of training with the Navy, it became apparent the Coast Guard needed to make modifications because some of the methods taught at the joint service school were not applicable to the Coast Guard search and rescue mission. These methods included scuba, deploying parachutes, tree extraction, and mountain rescue. The Coast Guard's main emphasis is peacetime rescues, not downed military recovery methods. In addition, the program was not without its challenges. The new feature to Coast Guard aviation generated hesitation and concern from pilots with deploying swimmers in hazardous conditions.

"When the program first became operational, there was considerable reluctance to deploy rescue swimmers except under generally favorable conditions, but it soon became apparent, however, that Coast Guard rescue swimmers would frequently be utilized in extreme weather conditions," said retired Lt. Cmdr. Richard M. Wright, in a 1996 article he authored titled "Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Program".

Rescue swimmers assigned to Air Station Elizabeth City officially became the first operational unit with helicopter rescue swimmers March 5, 1985, with air stations throughout the country following suit throughout the following years. "The Coast Guard went fully operational with the rescue swimmer program in October of 1991 meaning all Aviation Survivalmen, [first class petty officer] and below stood rescue swimmer duty at every Coast Guard air station across the country," said Murray.

Since its inception, the Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer program has enhanced the Coast Guard search and rescue mission. "The addition of a Rescue Swimmer asset to Helicopter search and rescue teams has had significant impact on the mission. Hurricane Katrina is our most recent reminder of the value of this asset," said Senior Chief Petty Officer Lewis Hart, who supervises the Aviation Survival Technician "A" school in Elizabeth City.

In the two-plus decades of the programs existence, several innovations in training have allowed rescue swimmers to adapt to unpredictable situations that they often encounter.

"The Rescue Swimmer Program has evolved in a number of ways but mostly in more advanced gear and training. The development of the Advanced Helicopter Rescue School in Astoria, Ore., helps train AST's in advanced techniquessuch as vertical surface rescue, sea cave rescue, heavy surf rescue, and swift water rescue," said Hart. In addition, innovations in sport science became an objective in training rescue swimmers. "The AST 'A' School has also developed a Train the Trainer 'C' School that teaches advance fitness and exercise physiology for training AST airmen and for operational fitness," added Hart.

It has been 25 years since 31 souls from the Marine Electric perished. Since this tragedy, it can be said that many lives have been indirectly saved. It is sometimes though tragedy that good can be extracted, and the Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer has fostered this. Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue swimmers have saved or assisted countless lives in the most harrowing of circumstances. In Hurricane Katrina, more than three-thousand lives were saved as the search and rescue operation unfolded on live television. In addition to survival skills in extreme elements, rescue swimmers are trained emergency medical technicians employing basic skills to victims while transporting to medical facilities ashore.

Nevertheless, perhaps the most important thing to remember is that rescue swimmers do not operate alone. It takes an entire flight crew to make saving lives a reality. "Rescue swimmers are highly visible in search and rescue cases and subsequently receive a lot of media attention," said Hart. "It would be fair to say that the media reports deemphasize the team concept with regard to the rest of the crew in such cases," he added. With lessons learned, the Coast Guard stands by for the next search and rescue case, always ready.

MARITIME NOTES:

USA. Mad Mariner introduces video Docking Game

Thursday, 21 February 2008

Mad Mariner, a leading online resource for independent reviews and in depth articles on boating, has announced the official release of The Docking Game, an Internet-based video game that allows boaters to practice and test their skills in a variety of marinas and conditions.

Chicago Maritime Festival - February 23




Coast Guard releases report on Marine Safety program

(WASHINGTON) -- The U.S. Coast Guard has released an independent study on its Marine Safety program. The report highlights the need to boost the status of Marine Safety within the Coast Guard organization. It also suggests that relations with the maritime community need to be improved. Click here to view the document.

Vessel pushed aground by ice, Azov sea - 2/15/2008 02:00
February 15, 03.15 LT – m/v Nikolay Sutyrin was pushed aground by ice twitch in Taganrog entrance buoy area, when proceeding in ice-convoy with i/b Kapitan Demidov, in southern direction, Azov sea. Vessel got a hole in cofferdam area, hole fixed by crew. Icebreaker Kapitan Demidov returned to m/v Nikolay Sutyrin, to assist refloating. After refloating, vessel will be towed to port for repairs. M/V Nikolay Sutyrin - IMO7119460, dwt 3355 t, built 1971, river-sea type, owner Samarskaya Shipping Co., enroute Azov-Gerasun (Turkey), cargo 3225 mt coal, crew 11, flag Russia.

Messing About In Ships Podcast Episode #11

February 22, 2008, 5:43 am
Filed under: podcast, shownotes

Have a great weekend!

RS

A wind and wave atlas for the Mediterranean Sea

Well one of my favorite subjects, that has a major impact on the maritime community, rogue waves. Here is a interesting report on wind speed and wave height measurements provided by ERS-1.

Luigi Cavaleri
ISMAR, S.Polo 1364 , 30125 Venezia, Italy

Abstract

Long term climatological data over the sea are much in demand for a number of reasons, ranging from pure scientific knowledge to the more important applications of, e.g., safety at sea and the design of sea structures. Till 15 years ago the only practical sources of the long term data required for a meaningful statistics was the collection of visual observations done from ships at sea. Starting from 1991 two new sources of data started to be available. The launch of ERS-1, and soon after of Topex-Poseidon, offered an unprecedented continuous flow of wind speed and wave height measurements. At the same time the improvements in computer power and numerical modelling led to a continuous synoptic description, typically at 6-hour interval, of the distribution of wind and wave characteristics at sea.

These two sources offered a wealth of data and today quite reliable statistics exist in the open oceans. However, the situation is less favourable in the inner seas. Here the global meteorological models exhibit a steady underestimate of the wind speeds, that in turn leads to an underestimate of the associated modelled wave heights. On the other hand the strong spatial gradients that characterise the basins with a complicated geometry, as in our case the Mediterranean Sea, imply that the spatial resolution of the altimeter ground tracks is not sufficient to provide the necessary details.

The solution lies in the complementary use of both the altimeter and the modelled data. The latter ones provide the background information, very dense in time and space, that is then calibrated using the information derived from the altimeters. This is done determining for each grid point, at 0.5 degree intervals, the series of co-located values, model and altimeter, for both wind speed and wave height. Provided the necessary reliability checks are satisfied, for each point and each parameter the best-fit slopes of the co-located data provide the correction coefficients of the model data. After some spatial averaging to avoid unrealistic local variability, long term time series of calibrated wind and wave fields have been obtained. These have been used to derive multiple long term statistics, both at synoptic and point levels. All these results have been made available in the MEDATLAS atlas of the Mediterranean Sea, available in both paper (A3) and interactive CD formats.

The results have also allowed a check of the correctness of the wind speed and wave height altimeter measurements. The direct relationship existing between these two quantities implies a consistency between their statistics. This is obviously present in the original data that are model derived, and it should be expected also in the calibrated data. On the contrary we have found that the calibrated wind speed values are lower than expected from the calibrated wave heights. As the latter ones have also been verified versus accurate buoy data, we suggest that the algorithm used to derive the altimeter wind speed provides values lower than the actual truth. ( Full paper ) pdf format.

Severe Weather Awareness Week

Tornado drill alert, Severe Weather Awareness Week

The week of Feb. 24 through Mar. 1 has been designated as “Severe Weather Awareness Week” in the state of Texas. During this week, all National Weather Service offices serving the Lone Star State will be actively involved in promoting severe weather awareness.

In addition, the NWS office in Houston/Galveston will be participating in a region-wide tornado drill for southeast Texas. At approximately 10 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 27, the Houston/Galveston NWS office will issue a mock tornado warning for all 23 counties in southeast Texas. The warning will be issued through broadcast on the NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. This will give government agencies, businesses, schools and other interested parties an opportunity to practice their emergency operation plans for tornados.

If you have any questions regarding “Severe Weather Awareness Week” or the mock tornado drill, contact Gene Hafele via email at gene.hafele@noaa.gov or call 281-337-5074, ext. 223.

Arkansas Severe Weather Awareness Week Feb. 25-29th

Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe has joined the National Weather Service and the Arkansas Department of Emergency Management to urge the citizens of Arkansas to prepare for the severe weather season.

The Governor has proclaimed February 25-29, 2008 as "Severe Weather Awareness Week" in Arkansas.

Governor Beebe is encouraging citizens to use the week to review severe weather safety rules and to understand the hazards associated with severe thunderstorms.

INTERNATIONAL WEATHER BRIEFS
Arthur Rabjohn CEM

INDONESIA: A powerful earthquake of 7.6 magnitude, 30km deep struck off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, prompting tsunami warnings. There are reports of at least 3 deaths. The tremor was centred about 319km west-southwest of Medan, Sumatra. The earthquake could generate a tsunami.

PHILIPPINES: Flash floods have killed at least 10 people in the central Philippines and forced tens of thousands to evacuate. Three people were injured. Nearly 140,000 people have been affected as collapsed bridges, landslides and floodwaters isolated Eastern Samar province.

PHILIPPINES: An earthquake measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale occurred west of the Philippine Batan Islands Wednesday. The earthquake hit at 0:59 a.m. Wednesday (1659 Tuesday GMT), with the epicentre initially determined to be 20.3 degrees north latitude and 121.1 degrees east longitude, about 270 km south southeast of Kaohsiung, a major town in the south of the China's Taiwan. There were no immediate reports of casualties or damages.

BOLIVIA: More than 58,000 families are affected by flooding. Hundreds are suffering from waterborne diseases and acute diarrhoea. Around 52 people have died, eight are missing and more than 616,000 hectares of crops destroyed as rivers burst their banks. The region most affected is Beni, but water levels are starting to drop in the city of Trinidad.

MOZAMBIQUE: Tropical Cyclone Ivan has weakened after killing 11 people in Madagascar, but could still cause torrential rains in Mozambique and flood many rivers in Madagascar. Cyclone Ivan was expected to lash Mozambique with heavy rains when it reached land on Tuesday as it was moving at a speed of 190 km/h.

MARITIME NOTES:

Chicago Maritime Festival - February 23

February 23 the Chicago Maritime Society will host the 6th annual Chicago Maritime Festival. Since the first festival in 2003, Torresen Marine has been a proud sponsor, providing support services to the event.

If you are in the Chicago area, please consider attending this event and learning more about our maritime heritage.

10:00 AM - 4:30 PM:
Seminars, workshops, exhibits, etc.
Common Times, in cooperation with the Chicago History Museum and The Chicago Maritime Society presents an international gathering to celebrate Chicago’s diverse marine community and maritime heritage. Daytime activities include seminars, workshops, lectures, films, and exhibits on a broad range of topics such as underwater archeology, the Eastland, the Endurance, lighthouses, ballads, shanties, life at sea, model shipbuilding, environmental issues, boating safety, weather, shipwrecks, diving, art, canoes, voyaging, and tall ships. There will also be some activities for children. Admission: $10.00 Adults, children 12 and under free.

7:00 -10:30 PM:
Maritime Music Concert

An international concert will feature critically acclaimed performers from around the country and across the sea including Dick Holdstock and Allan MacLeod (England, Scotland), Northern Neck Chantey Singers (Virginia), Debra Cowen (Massachusetts), Walter Askew (California), Tom and Chris Kastle (Chicago) and others. Admission: $20.00.

Concert and daytime activities: $25.00. ($20.00 by February 15, 2007). 10% discount for CHM or CMS members. For more information or to purchase tickets visit www.chicagomaritimefestival.org or call 773-774-7216.

RS

How to Survive Travel Disasters: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina

Once again we promote "Be Ready" with this series from Carly Blatt, Disaster Zone and the AMS.

February 3, 2008
By Carly Blatt

There are certain types of minor travel disasters that travelers figure go with the territory: the occasional bag going missing, a lost reservation, nonstop rain at a beach resort, or a bad stomach from eating street food. For most of these, we have backup plans or can easily improvise a solution.

But for many travelers, the most significant type of travel disaster is the one for which we’re the least prepared: a natural disaster that occurs during a trip. I learned firsthand the importance of preparing for disasters while traveling when I was on vacation with a friend in New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina hit. Although no one could have been fully prepared for Katrina’s wrath, we quickly learned that as travelers we were even more in the dark about what plan of action to take.

Next time you’re planning a trip, consider putting together a basic disaster plan and disaster supply kit so you’ll be prepared if the unthinkable happens. Below, I’ve incorporated a few suggestions from the “[2] Family Disaster Plan” developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the American Red Cross, as well as my own experience.

1. Prepare a disaster plan. Know what to do if you’re separated from your traveling partner. Most formal [3] disaster plans are geared for preparing for the natural disasters at home, but they can easily be altered to fit your travel needs.

2. Meeting Places. The Red Cross suggests picking two places to meet up with your traveling companions if you’re separated during an emergency. One of these can be obvious, like your hotel, but be sure to have an alternate location in case your hotel is directly affected by the disaster. Don’t forget to also pick a reliable contact back home who you each can call to check in with if you get separated. After the tsunami in Asia, many friends and families became separated and had no way to easily reconnect.

3. Communication. Even if all of your traveling companions have a cell phone, chances are the service might go down in a disaster. Also, after a disaster it’s often easier to make a long distance call than a local call. If you’re traveling solo, keep a contact back home updated on your situation so they can fill in others with the latest information. When I was in New Orleans the day before Katrina hit, I realized that cell service would soon disappear and gave my parents a list of people to keep updated since I knew I didn’t have the time – or battery juice – to call them each directly. I also discovered mass text messages were effective for quickly sending out information without wasting my battery. This only worked until the actual hurricane hit, though, when all communication came to a halt.

4. Emergency info. Have a hard copy of important phone numbers and keep it in an obvious place. Chances are, many of your frequently dialed phone numbers are carefully saved in your cell phone rather than your own memory. Which is fine until a disaster-related power outage happens and suddenly turning on your phone wastes valuable juice. A hard copy list of important numbers serves two purposes – it’s an additional resource for you, and it’s helpful in case you’re injured and someone needs to know who to call. Write “ICE” – which stands for In Case of Emergency – next to your emergency contacts. If you’re hurt, this will help English-speaking emergency personnel who are trained to look for this information know immediately how to contact the right person. FEMA has a [4] ready-made card that you can cut out and personalize. If your traveling companion has a cell phone or if you have friends in the area that you’re traveling, specify that clearly next to their names and numbers. When you’re abroad, know the number for emergency services in each country you visit.

5. Carry cash. Travelers often avoid carrying extra cash because they’re worried about theft. But if you’re stuck in a natural disaster and a power outage occurs, your ATM cards and credit cards may be completely useless. Trying to finding anyone who will exchange a traveler’s cheque during a crisis may be even more challenging. Carry change for a few phone calls in case you can find a coin-operated phone that works – land lines often continue to work when cell service goes down.

6. Learn about your surroundings. If you’re staying at a hotel or hostel, learn what their emergency plan is, if any. The Red Cross suggests determining the best escape routes and finding [5] two ways out of each room. Get to know the general area as well. If you had to leave town quickly, what are your options? How could you get to a train or bus station? Carry hard copies of a city map along with your hotel or hostel’s address with you at all times. Learn as much as you can about evacuation routes by listening to news reports and speaking with knowledgeable locals, when possible.

7. Keep important documents and extra medical supplies handy. The Red Cross suggests including special needs items such as prescription medications, extra eye glasses, and contact lens solution in your [6] Disaster Supply Kit. This is imperative if you want to stay as healthy as possible during a disaster. If you take a certain medication regularly, plan to bring double the supply, if possible, than you’ll actually need for the length of your trip. That way, if you’re stranded because of a disaster you won’t have to worry about missing doses. Also, have extra copies of your prescriptions in case you need an emergency refill. Even if you’re not able to fill them abroad, it will help give local doctors information on what you need. Keep photocopies of your itineraries, travel insurance information, passport, etc. in each of your bags. Large, clear bags are great for these, and help protect them from water.

You can read the full Disaster Supply Kit list [7] here. Keep in mind however that it’s geared toward people at home, not on the road, so you’ll need to make a few adjustments based on your particular travel situation.:

FROM Disaster Zone

How to Survive Anything Mother Nature Throws at You

One hundred years of technological progress can be erased in minutes by nature’s fury. Recent disasters have left not only destruction, but also heroism in their wake, and we can learn from the experiences of the survivors. The right tools, skills and mind-set—the survival worldview—will help you withstand the worst.

SCOTT REINECKE: Where's Home: Greensburg, Kan. What Happened: On May 4, 2007, Reinecke rode out one of the worst tornadoes ever recorded, sheltering in his basement with his wife and parents. “When we came out, the debris was piled 5 ft. high inside our house.” His Advice: “Think about what to do ahead of time, not on the spur of the moment. Have a safe place to go, and be ready to get there.”

AMS - Taking Shelter: Estimating the Safety Benefits of Tornado Safe Rooms

ABSTRACT

Over the past several decades, engineers have made significant progress in the design and construction of structures able to withstand tornadic winds and debris. The aftermath of the 3 May 1999 F5 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma, highlighted the modest market penetration of tornado shelters in metropolitan areas. The authors use historical data from Oklahoma to estimate the potential casualties that tornado shelters could prevent and calculate that the cost per fatality avoided in single-family homes is $29 million while the cost per fatality avoided for mobile homes is $2.6 million. The estimates are sensitive to the proportion of strong (F3 or stronger) tornadoes and the choice of an interest rate for present-value calculations. If the F-scale distribution of Oklahoma tornadoes resembled a reported national frequency distribution and fatalities per category storm are held constant, the permanent home cost per fatality avoided triples to $88 million. (Full Report)

Crisis Leadership: Making a Difference When Disaster Strikes

Anyone may be a "first responder" when crisis hits close to home. As a leader, how prepared are you to deal with crisis? How prepared is your organization? In this issue of Leading Effectively, we bring you lessons of leadership from people who made a difference when Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi and Louisiana on August 29, 2005. While few of us may be called to lead in a crisis of the magnitude of Katrina, we will all almost certainly face significant and unexpected crises in our work and lives. Our ability to be effective in a crisis can fundamentally shape the course of our lives after the crisis. What can we learn from a crisis like Katrina about being better prepared?

The "Crisis Leadership: Lessons from the Frontlines" forum was made possible by a gift from the Marrow family to encourage the Center to facilitate conversations about important leadership issues.

Severe Storm Conferences

TESSA
The Texas Severe Storms Association

2008 National Storm Conference Agenda

MARITIME NOTES

Bosphorus Channel Remains Closed Due to Bad Weather

The Bosporus shipping channel between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea is still closed, a source at the Master Maritime Agency, which provides transit services in the area.

"The Bosporus Strait was shut on Saturday because of bad weather," the source said. "It has remained closed since and we are not sure when it will reopen." Transit through the Turkish Straits as a whole (both the Dardanelles and Bosporus) was reported to be delayed by nine days on Friday, but early Monday morning the closure had increased the estimated delay to around 10 days.

According to Mastership there were were presently 12 northbound and 10 southbound tankers awaiting or expected for transit through the Bosporus. The most recent passage had been on Saturday when three northbound tankers managed transits before the closure.

Due to ongoing work on the Marmaray underwater tunnel, traffic through the strait is only permitted in one direction at a time and tankers may only pass through the Bosporus between 06:00 and 16:00 local time (04:00-14:00
GMT).

However, the Dardanelles Strait, which makes up the southern portion of the Turkish Straits, separated from the Bosporus by the Sea of Marmar, remained open to shipping, the agent confirmed. Here delays were much shorter with six northbound tankers waiting for passage and no southbound tankers either waiting or expected.

USA. Lloyd's Register Educational Trust announces Maritime Technology Student Award in North America

Monday, 18 February 2008

The Lloyd's Register Educational Trust (LRET) has signed an agreement with the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers (SNAME) in the United States of America to sponsor a Maritime Technology Student of the Year competition and award in North America. Designed to highlight excellence, the award will encourage students to showcase their research and investigative studies on various topics in the areas of naval architecture and marine engineering and promote leadership in the industry.

The 'Lloyd's Register Educational Trust Maritime Technology Student of the Year Award' is a collaborative effort between SNAME, which is dedicated to advancing the art, science, and practice of naval architecture, shipbuilding, and marine engineering,and the LRET, which supports science, engineering, and technical education programs worldwide. The award is based on an existing scheme that the LRET has funded in the UK for ten years.

"The success of students in this field of study will be vitally important to the maritime industry as they apply engineering and science to design, build, and operate the huge variety of vessels and structures on or under the sea's surface," says Michael Franklin, LRET Director. "The Lloyd's Register Educational Trust is very pleased to further its commitment to improving the quality and safety of the maritime industry worldwide by sponsoring this award."

"We believe it is essential to encourage, inspire, and recognize the work of young men and women who have chosen naval architecture or marine engineering as their course of study," says SNAME's Executive Director, Phil Kimball. "We are delighted that the Lloyd's Register Educational Trust has chosen to work with us on this prestigious award."

The competition is open to undergraduates at academic institutions throughout the US and Canada that offer programs in naval architecture and marine engineering, and provides a cash award to a first and second place winner selected by a judging panel of industry experts.

M/F Riverdance - UPDATE

Monday 18 February 2008 11:48
Maritime And Coastguard Agency (National)

The Ro Ro ferry 6,041 ton `Riverdance' still remains firmly aground on the North Shore at Blackpool. The vessel still remains in a precarious position. Currently the vessel is maintaining a significant list to starboard. The main cargo deck, lower hold, engine room and steering gear room are currently interconnected and therefore flood with the tide and the watertight integrity of the hull is subject to further investigation by salvors.

The salvage control unit, chaired by Hugh Shaw, the Secretary of States Representative in Maritime Salvage and Intervention (SOSREP) recently reported that over the past weekend all bunker fuels have been successfully removed from the most vulnerable tanks. Operations will now concentrate on stabilising the vessel by making the hull watertight and transferring water ballast to reduce the list. The severe list has made the access to the double bottom tanks much easier and safer than before.

Work continues on the further removal of a number of trailers from the main deck, but efforts are being hampered by the tide levels at low water which is restricting the safe working time on scene. The Environment Group continues to monitor and risk assess the situation and are satisfied with the progress being made to date.

Additional security staff remain in place to cover the 'low water' periods supported by HM Coastguard personnel and vehicles when the vessel presents dangers to onlookers who stray too close the site.

An outline traffic management plan is being discussed between Lancashire Police and the local authorities for the refloating operation which, due to ongoing work on board the vessel, will not take place for at least the next two weeks. A number of road closures and restrictions will be put in place at that time and the plan will be implemented for the period covering the refloat.


"Be Ready"

RS

Spectacular Waterspout

Twister "as high as the eye could see".

A spectacular waterspout amazed Kapiti Coast residents as it snaked off the sea, releasing heavy rain and hailstones as big as marbles.

View video View gallery

The twister was seen to form off Kapiti Island about 7pm, before coming ashore between Paekakariki and Raumati South.

It dispersed over the land. Police said it caused no damage, though traffic on State Highway 1 slowed as motorists stopped to watch it.

Raumati South resident Nick Swan said he saw the waterspout at Queen Elizabeth Park and stopped his car to take pictures.

"I've seen waterspouts before and this was by far the widest and highest," he said. "It was as high as the eye could see. It was huge and I could see it snaking very slowly from side to side."

Kapiti Boating Club vice-commodore Peter Kortens saw a cloud slowly developing into "a long black spiral".

"Within a few minutes it touched down on the sea and sucked up seawater," he said. "As it hit the ground it released the water - we could see it fall. We've never seen an event from the boat club like that."

Mr Kortens said the twister moved across State Highway 1 and slowly disappeared.

MetService spokesman William Nepe said a complex trough of low pressure over New Zealand was a factor. Warm air from the tropics hitting cold air and sea-surface temperatures of about 20 degrees also contributed.

CHASERCON

The 10th Annual National Storm Chaser Convention

Storm Chaser Phil Kurimski has pix's of ChaserCon which was held in Colorado over the weekend.

MARITIME NOTES:

Russian navy ship under tow after Aegean rescue - Summary

Europe World News | Home Athens - A Russian auxiliary ship that issued distress calls during rough seas in the Aegean was being towed to a safe island harbour, reports said. Greek coastguard officials rushed to send rescue helicopters and a coast guard frigate to assist a Russian navy ship, with 88 crew on board, after it was caught in strong winds and engine problems in the Aegean Sea, approximately 15 nautical miles south of the Ikaria. A Greek navy frigate was towing the Russian repair vessel, belonging to Russias Black Sea fleet, to a safe harbour on the island of Hios, just north of Ikaria.

Officials said the operation would take several hours due to the bad weather. Coastguard officials said the ship was an auxiliary vessel that was carrying fuel and was drifting out of control due to engine problems. All the crew were reported safe. The Ministry of Merchant Marine said the vessel had been heading to the base of the Black Sea fleet in Savastopol, Ukraine from Syria. Heavy snowfall, gale force winds and freezing temperatures have hit Greece for the past two days, forcing ships to ports across the country, and paralyzing air and land transport.

MARINE WX NEWS BRIEFS

Soon I will be doing a weekly maritime podcast compliments of Messing About In Ships highlighting maritime weather news, severe weather at sea and topics such as rogue waves. So visit Messing About In Ships often to keep updated.

RS

THETA-E: The Un-used Parameter

A while back storm spotters and chasers had a discussion on the Theta-E Parameter.

Ok so what is the Theta-E and why is it used?

Meteorologist Jeff Haby explains.

1. What is THETA-E?

THETA-E (Equivalent Potential Temperature) is the temperature that results after all latent heat is released in a parcel of air and the then brought adiabatically to the 1000 mb level. THETA-E increases as dewpoint


2. How is THETA-E determined?

First determine the pressure level of interest. Locate the temperature and dewpoint at that pressure level. Raise that parcel adiabatically from that pressure level to the 200-mb level. Next, bring the parcel down dry adiabatically to the 1000 mb level. The temperature once the parcel is at 1000 mb is the THETA-E.

3. Operational significance of THETA-E:

INSTABILITY- A region with a relatively high THETA-E is often the region with the most instability. Warmer low level temperatures and higher low level dewpoints increase instability.

LOW LEVEL JET- A low level jet from a moisture source will often bring in higher THETA-E values and thus increased instability.

THETA-E RIDGE- These are regions with higher THETA-E. They are often the burst point for convective activity.

4. Pitfalls:

a. If a strong cap is in place, convective storms will not occur even if THETA-E is high.

What does this mean to Storm Chasers? Storm Chaser Steve Sponsler explains...

"THETA-E: The Un-used Parameter

Have you ever wondered where a true frontal boundary or the dry-line exists? Why ask?

When it comes to chasing...you have to know these factors along with many others...but this discussion is focused only on Theta-E for discussions sake:

The Theta-E advection parameter could be a major clue. It combines what surface analysis provides as well as the dewpoint forecast parameter.

It also works in tandem with injecting dry slots...and what I often think of as "pressure points". One must combine these two to "brew" the secret ingredient.

What are "pressure points"? Microscale low pressure areas. Those are areas where micro-scale low pressure areas form, particularly in the Plains...formed mostly from downslope winds off the Rockies ALONG with the Coreollis Force...concurrent with upslope, moist air from the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) and forcing upper level winds from the WNW. SEE IT IN YOUR MIND.

VISUALIZE...and work it...Dry Slots swiping up moisture and being forced to rotate because of the earth's rotation..in reality..it makes perfect sense.

And for chasing purposes...PLAN your road networks in advance.

I surmise that anyone here already does that.

It COULD be a "secret" ingredient to what might overlie all the other parameters provide. But then again...I please hope than no one denies that luck in all cases is involved in a successful chase."

CASE STUDY-1

A relationship between a surface theta-e ridge and dominant lightning polarity

Nettie R. Lake, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and D. R. MacGorman

For many years, it was believed that cloud-to-ground lightning lowered only negative charge to the ground (-CG flashes). In the past twenty years, however, flashes lowering positive charge (+CG flashes) have been documented and studied. This presentation summarizes positive correlations between +CG flashes, hail, and tornadoes.

Recent studies have reported that in some cases, dominant storm polarity reverses from positive to negative. Additionally, it has been observed that 50% of such storms are tornadic, and that tornadoes usually occur during or after the reversal. Smith et al. (2000) observed that polarity reversals often occur at surface equivalent potential temperature (theta-e) ridges. This study examined dominant polarity patterns of severe storms during the entire year 1999. Similar to Smith et al. (2000), this study found that 82% of polarity reversals occur at a theta-e ridge.

Furthermore, positively dominated storms that move parallel to a ridge axis seldom reverse polarity. Also, negative storms do not reverse polarity relative to a theta-e ridge. Explanations for why polarity reversals may occur at a theta-e ridge will also be discussed.

Extended Abstract (68K)

CASE STUDY - 2

WMSI - A New Index For Forecasting Wet Microburst Severity

Kenneth L. Pryor and Gary P. Ellrod
Office of Research and Applications (NOAA/NESDIS)
Camp Springs, MD
Date Submitted: November 20, 2003

Abstract

A new index to assess the potential and severity of wet microbursts is currently under development. The index, designated as the Wet Microburst Severity Index (WMSI), accounts for the physical processes of convective storm development and downburst generation by incorporating such parameters as convective available potential energy (CAPE), to represent the process of updraft formation, and Theta-e Deficit (TeD), to represent downburst development.

Since convective storm updrafts require buoyant energy, a very important parameter used in the analysis of convection is CAPE, which is easily computed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sounding data. Since updraft strength is proportional to CAPE, large CAPE would result in strong updrafts that could lift the precipitation core within a convective storm to the mid-level dry air layer. CAPE also plays a major role in the formation of precipitation.

The strong updrafts resulting from large CAPE will increase the size of precipitation particles, which, in turn, will then enhance the effect of precipitation loading. The amount of mid-level water vapor relative to the low-level water vapor in the atmosphere as indicated by a sounding profile is important in the determination of the strength of downdrafts that occur in convective storms. This condition is modeled by the Theta-e Deficit (TeD), represented by the algorithm TeD = theta-e_max - theta-e_min, where (theta-e_max) refers to the maximum value of theta-e at the surface and (theta-e_min) refers to the minimum value of theta-e in the mid-levels of the troposphere.

TeD serves as an important indicator of the difference in water vapor concentration (plus thermal energy cpT) between the surface and mid-levels. Large TeD values imply the presence of relatively dry air at mid levels that will result in evaporative cooling and the generation of large negative buoyancy as the dry air is entrained into the convection cell. The WMSI algorithm is given as the following expression: WMSI = (CAPE)(theta-e_max - theta-e_min)/1000.

CASR STUDY - 3

Midlevel Dry Intrusions as a Factor in Tornado Outbreaks Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Lon Curtis
KWTX-TV, Waco, Texas

ABSTRACT

Midlevel dry intrusions have been mentioned as a factor in tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling tropical cyclones for more than three decades, but a systematic analysis of historical outbreak cases with respect to this pattern has been missing.

Herein, following an examination of all named tropical cyclone landfalls from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico for the period 1960–99, 13 “outbreak” cases (defined as storms producing 20 or more tornadoes) have been identified with 11 of the cases offering clear evidence of a dry intrusion at midlevels over the outbreak area. The outbreaks all occurred when the favored area for tornadogenesis (the right-front or northeast quadrant of the storm) coincided with a pronounced gradient of relative humidity, with the gradient best reflected at the 700- and/or 500-hPa level(s).

Two distinct patterns were identified with respect to the origin of the midlevel dry air involved in these cases: in one, a mass of dry air that impinged on much of the northern or northwestern semicircle of the storm's outer circulation gradually divided into two separate areas (one to the northwest and the other to the northeast of the storm center) as the storm advanced; the other involved ingestion of a lobe of dry air from a reservoir most often located in the eastern semicircle of the storm.

The outbreak cases were determined to have a strong diurnal signal detected in the temporal distribution of the tornadoes, as almost two-thirds (65%) of the tornadoes in the 11 “positive” cases occurred between 1500 and 2400 UTC (daylight hours in the region examined). A review of all tropical cyclone landfall events since 1960 revealed that there are only three cases with clear evidence of a midlevel dry intrusion that were not accompanied by an outbreak as defined herein.

TORNADO OUTBREAK

30 Twisters in Al, Ga and Fla for 17 February 2008

Meteorologists Study Deadly Tornado Outbreak

Warm moist air and a shifting weather pattern courtesy of the La Nina phenomenon aided in the development of the Feb. 5 tornadoes, which killed at least 50 people and were among the 15th deadliest in U.S. recorded history. But meteorologists are now trying to explain why the tornadoes occurred so early in the year.

It was farther north than most February tornadoes and stronger, Joseph Schaefer, director of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., told Associated Press.

Tornadoes do occur in February. In 1971, a deadlier February outbreak in the Mississippi Delta killed 121 people. A study conducted by Schaefer two years ago, found that winter tornadoes in parts of the South occur more frequently and are stronger when there is a La Nina, a cooling of Pacific waters that is the flip side of the better known El Nino.

February tornadoes usually pop up near the Gulf Coast, not in Kentucky or Tennessee, said University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Howard Bluestein.

A heavy contributing factor was the warm weather. It was 84 degrees in Oklahoma before the storm front moved through on its path of destruction. On Tuesday, 97 weather stations broke or tied records in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky - the hardest-hit states, according to Associated Press.

Still, meteorologists said there is not enough recorded historical evidence of such storms to blame global warming at this point, but Tuesday’s tornadoes had all of the key deadly elements: warm air near the ground; high winds; and warm moist air coming north from the Gulf of Mexico.

Schaefer told Associated Press, La Nina doesn’t specifically cause tornadoes, it helps shift the jet stream, pushing storms from the West and moisture from the Gulf into the necessary collision course over the South. El Nino, La Nina occurs every few years, and has been changing global weather patterns for a few months now, Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, which monitors La Nina, told Associated Press.

Preliminary figures for January show 136 tornadoes, five tornado deaths and three killer tornadoes, although these figures tend to drop after closer analysis.

Between 1997 and 2007, the average February has 30 tornadoes, killing 9 people. Early reports tallied 68 tornadoes so far this month. "We're off to a big start for the year," said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the storm center. Meteorologists said that the patterns point to the likelihood of more tornado outbreaks this season. "As long as the pattern remains the same it can be very active," Schaefer said. "It's not a time to let down your guard."

MARITIME NOTES:

Shell Oil to put sensors on Gulf rigs to gauge storm strength, share data with forecasters

Maya Bell
Sentinel Staff Writer
February 14, 2008

MIAMI - It's a Gulf Coast nightmare: A moderate hurricane crosses a pocket of deep warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and explodes into a top-of-the-chart Category 5 monster.

Exactly how and why that happens may become a bit clearer one day, thanks to new undersea sensors Shell Oil Co. has agreed to install on one of its oil platforms in the Gulf south of New Orleans.

Known as "thermistors," the instruments will measure heat content of the water to a depth of 100 meters, or about 330 feet, and may be operable by this fall, in time for the peak of the 2008 hurricane season. The data could help hurricane scientists measure the effects of warmer water on storm intensity.

They are one piece of a nearly $1 million investment the oil company is making to collect data for hurricane research, forecasting and coastal-resource management.

Marking the first private-public partnership of its kind, Shell has agreed to acquire and install weather and oceanic data-collecting sensors on seven of its oil and gas facilities in deep waters off the Gulf Coast from Texas to Alabama.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has agreed to make the data available in real time to its National Weather Service forecast offices, the National Hurricane Center west of Miami and the public.

"This is very significant," said David Miller, a NOAA spokesman in Washington. "These platforms are designed for maximum survivability, and having an uninterrupted data stream even in the height of a hurricane could have untold value."

Under federal law, 59 deep-water gas and oil platforms operating in the Gulf already are required to collect and transmit observations of ocean currents to NOAA's National Data Buoy Center. But the agreement between NOAA and Shell, forged after NOAA administrator Conrad Lautenbacher and Shell President John Hofmeister met at a 2006 summit on the Gulf and discussed how their organizations could leverage their strengths, goes much further.

In addition to the ocean heat sensors, by next spring Shell will install transmitters, complete with battery-backup power, on four platforms that will send sea-surface and air temperatures, pressure and wind speed to NOAA's geostationary satellites -- even if the platforms are evacuated because of a hurricane. Tethered to the sea bottom by cables, the platforms can twist in a figure eight to withstand storm-force currents and winds.

Shell also has agreed to collect and share meteorological data from two Continental Shelf locations off Louisiana and install high-frequency radar transmitters on platforms off the Texas coast. Specific locations have yet to be identified.

Because Florida waters are off limits to oil drilling, only one of the platforms scheduled for the enhancements is near its coast, south of the Alabama-Florida border. Still, the Sunshine State should benefit.

"Think about it: More than half of Florida's real estate is on the Gulf of Mexico," said hurricane-center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "And storms don't always move west. Sometimes they come from the west. Remember Wilma," a reference to the 2005 late-season storm that swept across southwest Florida and exited over Broward and Palm Beach counties.

While Shell spokeswoman Darci Sinclair said the thermal sensors should help hurricane forecasters improve on their weakest skill -- predicting the intensity of storms -- forecasters said the data will likely be of more use to researchers. But they'll be glad to have it.

"Every meteorologist always wants every bit of data he or she can get," hurricane specialist James Franklin said.

Maya Bell can be reached at mayabell@orlandosentinel.com or 305-810-5003.

Riverdance bye-bye

GROUNDED cargo ship, the Riverdance, is expected to set sail this week - and it couldn't come quick enough for local residents.

Locals living in the English holiday town of Blackpool have experienced the same tourism fever Newcastle locals had when the Pasha Bulker ran aground last year.

Blackpool's promenade has become a "nightmare" with locals complaining of traffic jams as people across England travel to see the Riverdance, an Irish-owned ship which has been grounded for 17 days.

"When it first happened it took me 45 minutes to get down the road to get home. The parking is a nightmare too," Blackpool local Steven Wilkinson said.

"It'll be worse this week with half term holidays. You can't blame people for coming to see the ferry though. It's a one off and their kids want to see it."

It's not only the locals who are complaining. Sightseers say they are finding it difficult to park in the small seaside town.

"I've come every day to see the ferry. It's jolly good to see so many people here. But there are a lot of cars. People living here know where to go for parking spaces, but visitors wouldn't know where to park. There aren't enough spaces," visitor Clarice Dale told the Blackpool Gazette.

Small business owners will be sad to see the Riverdance go.

"Our business has doubled. The longer it's here, the better it is for us. It's been great for business, you don't need to advertise the area - just put a boat on the beach! " Ann Wilkinson, owner of Blackpool's The Eating House said.

Four passengers and 10 crew were airlifted off the Riverdance in a rescue which included the coastguard, the Royal Air Force and lifeboat services.


RS