New Wind Measurement Technology May Help Olympic Sailing, Aviation and Weather Forecasting

New Wind Measurement Technology May Help Olympic Sailing, Aviation and Weather Forecasting

ScienceDaily (July 3, 2008) — A team of researchers at the Ocean University of China has developed and tested a mobile lidar (light detection and ranging) station that can accurately measure wind speed and direction over large areas in real time -- an application useful for aviation safety, weather forecasting and sports.

The mobile lidar station can measure wind fields more accurately, which could help world-class athletes compete in international competitions, such as the Olympics. Ocean University is in Qingdao, which is hosting the sailing competitions of the XXIX Olympic Games and the Beijing 2008 Paralympic Games, and this technique is being tested in conjunction with the event.

"Wind is non-uniform even in a small sailing field," says Professor Zhi-Shen Liu of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Remote Sensing, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, who led the research. "Athletes could maximize their performances if they have the most accurate information to help them capture the wind."

In Olympic sailing, individual competitors or teams of athletes sail various classes of sailboats in timed trials over a single course. The contest requires them to navigate upwind, downwind and everything in between. Their final time depends on numerous factors, including the boat design, the skill of the sailors, course difficulty and ocean currents. Perhaps the most important factor, though, is how well the athletes can harness the wind that fills their sails.

Because wind constantly changes speed and direction, athletes and coaches hope to have the best information at the start of a run. On cloudy, rainy days, the standard meteorological tool of Doppler radar can accurately provide wind field information. When no clouds are present, however, Doppler radar is ineffective. The best wind data on clear days comes from ocean buoys and land stations that use wind cups and ultrasonic anemometers to measure wind speed.

In the Qingdao sailing area, where this summer's competitions will take place, only four buoys, one boat and one tower are available to measure sea surface winds within a competition area of approximately 10 square kilometers.

Liu and his lidar group, composed of research scientists and graduate students, have been working with an optical remote sensing technology called Doppler lidar, which they are applying for weather and environmental research. Lidar works by scattering laser beams off atmospheric aerosols or molecules. Doppler lidar takes advantage of the fact that when these aerosols or molecules are moving in the wind, the scattered laser light changes frequency -- the same way an approaching car has a higher pitched sound than a car driving away.

The advantage of Doppler lidar, says Liu, is that it can quickly sample a large area, providing a much finer map of winds than buoys alone. He and his group have developed a lidar bus, which can move equipment to the experiment field conveniently.

Last year, they successfully tested their new bus at the 2007 Qingdao International Regatta sailing event. They moved the bus to the seashore near the sailing field, and made a horizontal scan over the sea surface, making the measurement in real time and then uploading the data to the local meteorological station every 10 minutes. They envision a similar effort in the upcoming Olympic and Paralympic games.

The research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Key Laboratory of Ocean Remote Sensing, the Ministry of Education of China and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).

WEATHER NOTE

U.S. Department of Labor Giving $17 Million to Iowa to Aid Recovery From Flooding and Tornadoes

WASHINGTON, June 18 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The U.S. Department of Labor today announced a $17,127,000 grant to create approximately 600 temporary jobs for eligible dislocated workers in Iowa to assist in the cleanup and recovery resulting from damage caused by recent flooding and tornadoes.

"Our hearts go out to Iowans who are suffering from the ongoing flooding and who were victims of the recent tornadoes, including last week's tragic loss of life at a Boy Scout camp," said Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao. "This $17 million grant will pay for temporary jobs to aid in the cleanup and recovery from these natural disasters and will provide humanitarian assistance to Iowans in need."

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has declared multiple counties across Iowa as eligible for its Public Assistance Program.

The grant, awarded to the Iowa Workforce Development agency, will provide funding to create temporary jobs to assist in cleanup, demolition, repair, renovation and reconstruction of destroyed public structures, facilities and lands within the affected communities. Funds will also be used for projects that provide food, clothing, shelter, and other types of humanitarian assistance for disaster victims, including work on the homes of individuals who are eligible for the federally funded weatherization program.

Of the total announced today, $6,000,000 will be released initially, with the balance expected to be released on or around June 30.

National Emergency Grants are part of the secretary of labor's discretionary fund and are awarded based on a state's ability to meet specific guidelines. For more information on National Emergency Grants, visit www.doleta.gov/NEG.

U.S. Department of Labor releases are accessible on the Internet at www.dol.gov. The information in this news release will be made available in alternate format (large print, Braille, audio tape or disc) from the COAST office upon request. Please specify which news release when placing your request at 202-693-7828 or TTY 202-693-7755. The Labor Department is committed to providing America's employers and employees with easy access to understandable information on how to comply with its laws and regulations. For more information, please visit www.dol.gov/compliance.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Volunteer Agencies Play Key Role In Wisconsin Disaster Recovery

Release Date: June 28, 2008
Release Number: 1768-036

» More Information on Wisconsin Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

MADISON, Wis. -- Wisconsin residents who suffered losses from the recent severe storms, tornadoes and flooding and continue to have unmet needs may seek help through a number of volunteer groups.

"We would like to encourage Wisconsin residents to take advantage of our 2-1-1 Program when looking for additional assistance," said Wisconsin Emergency Management (WEM) Administrator Johnnie Smith. "It's a valuable resource that unites those who want to help with those who most need assistance."

Residents can dial 2-1-1 on their telephones to obtain information on local volunteer agencies working in their county. The 2-1-1 operators have phone numbers, program and services information, locations, hours of operation and other relevant resources. Those who call 2-1-1 may be referred to resources including housing assistance, counseling services, employment opportunities and health services.

"The volunteer groups are vital elements in all state and federal recovery efforts as they focus on helping families develop effective recovery plans," said Federal Coordinating Officer Dolph Diemont of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). As federal coordinating officer, Diemont directs the federal side of the federal/state disaster response and recovery efforts in Wisconsin.

Anyone affected by the recent storms and flooding should register with FEMA by calling 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or TTY 1-800-462-7585. Wisconsin residents can also register online at www.fema.gov/.

For individuals seeking more information and/or possible participation, here are two volunteer groups currently working in Wisconsin:

Salvation Army
1-800-264-6412 / www.salvationarmywi.org

American Red Cross
1-866-GET-INFO (1-866-438-4636) / www.redcross.org

FEMA coordinates the federal government's role in preparing for, preventing, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all domestic disasters, whether natural or man-made, including acts of terror.

MARITIME NOTE

HOT FROM gCAPTAIN.....

This is a problem for all blue water mariners. My contacts tell me that this downgrade is due to special interest such as "private weather services" who want NOAA out of the business of supplying public "open source" weather data. It looks like someone is lobbying someone on the Hill or at NOAA for these changes...

All mariners need to take notice and write david.feit@noaa.gov and let him know that we need this "public service" unchanged!

NOAA To Make Surface Chart Cutback

July 8th, 2008

NOAA Surface Chart Notice" height="320" width="501">

The above shows a notice box on NOAA’s current 24hr Surface Prediction Chart which can be found HERE. It states:

On 08/15/08 the limits of this chart will change to 24N-48N, 48W-101W. Send comments to David.Feit@noaa.gov by 07/15/08

Notice on the live version of this chart Hurricane Bertha and the area of low pressure to her Northeast are both outside the proposed limits! Here at gCaptain we consider this a degradation of service not a simple adjustment of scale and are supprised by this move from an otherwise rational government organization. It is our opinion that the boundries of this chart should instead be increased to cover the entire North Atlantic which would bring it inline with NOAA’s 48 and 96 hour prediction charts (view all charts HERE)!

Please leave your comments regarding this change bleow and we will be sure they get fowarded on to Mr. Feit and our contacts at NOAA. READ>

USCG Safety Alert: Controllable Pitch Propeller Systems and Situational Awareness

Coast Guard strongly recommends that owners, operators, and masters of vessels with controllable pitch propellers understand the design and operation of the system after marine casualty in March of 2008 involving a fishing vessel in the Bering Sea resulted in multiple fatalities and complete loss of the vessel.

July 2, 2008 (Washington, DC): A marine casualty in March of 2008 involving a fishing vessel in the Bering Sea resulted in multiple fatalities and complete loss of the vessel. A Marine Board of Investigation is currently examining the various circumstances surrounding the casualty. Although the investigation is not complete, safety issues associated with casualty have been identified that merit immediate public dissemination.

Based on the survivors' testimony, the crew experienced difficulty with launching and entering the three liferafts because the vessel was making considerable sternway when the order to abandon ship was issued. Evidence indicates the main engines were still running and the vessel was backing with significant astern pitch. Consequently, two of the liferafts quickly traveled forward past the bow of the vessel when they were launched. Attempts to retrieve the liferafts using the painter lines were unsuccessful. As a result, the majority of the crew members were forced to jump into the 34°F water and attempt to swim to the liferafts. Ultimately, only 22 members of the vessel's crew made it into the liferafts. All of these crew members survived. Of the other 25 crew members who never made it into a liferaft, four died and one remains missing.

The Coast Guard strongly recommends that owners, operators, and masters of vessels with controllable pitch propellers understand the design and operation of the system. This includes the primary and emergency sources of power for both the control and main systems, the location and procedures for using alternate control stations, and the locations of the emergency shutdowns. While controllable pitch propeller systems are generally designed and constructed to fail in the "as is" position, in hydraulic CPP systems, the actual blade pitch may change. In this case the vessel was making considerable sternway. This was not a unique occurrence. The MS EXPLORER also experienced this problem before it sank in November of 2007. Vessel operators, masters and crew members must be prepared to respond accordingly.

In light of this incident, vessel owners, operators, masters and crew members should also be mindful of the following safety issues:

1. Vessel masters and officers must maintain situational awareness at all times and understand the effects of their actions and decisions on the safety of their crew, especially during emergency situations involving flooding. This includes understanding what impact the vessel's speed, heading, heel, and trim will have on the crew as it abandons ship.

2. The master or individual in charge must evaluate the particular circumstances of each emergency situation (weather, seas, experience of crew, condition of vessel, etc.) and adjust emergency procedures accordingly to provide for the safety of his crew, vessel, and the environment.

3. All crew members should understand that immersion suits will affect their dexterity, limit mobility, and may make it more difficult to launch survival craft, particularly when the survival craft are covered with snow or ice. Crew members responsible for launching the survival craft should practice and be able to do so with their immersion suits on. Lifesaving gear should be kept free of ice and snow whenever possible.

4. When abandoning ship, crewmembers should make every effort to enter directly into a liferaft or lifeboat before entering the water. If crewmembers must enter the water, they should stay together and attempt to enter a liferaft, climb onto floating debris, or use any other means available to get themselves out of the water as soon as possible.

5. Emergency Drills should not be limited to routine procedures such as donning immersion suits. Emergency drills should ensure all crew members, including bridge and engine room personnel, understand and practice what to do in various emergency situations under actual conditions.

Additional information regarding emergency procedures for Commercial Fishing Vessels can be found at: http://www.fishsafe.info.

This safety alert is provided for informational purpose only and does not relieve any domestic or international safety, operational or material requirement. Developed and distributed by the Office of Investigations and Analysis, United States Coast Guard Headquarters, Washington, DC.

RS

Hurricane Center says better forecasts could cost millions

Hurricane Center says better forecasts could cost millions

MIAMI (AP) — Substantially improving the accuracy of hurricane intensity predictions could take years and tens of millions of dollars, the National Hurricane Center's director said Tuesday.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Bill Read said reducing by half the errors made in tasks such as determining whether a storm would remain a Category 1 or grow stronger would be a costly and long-term effort.

Predicting a storm's intensity is much harder for meteorologists than estimating where it will go. Since 1990, forecasters have reduced by more than half their errors in predicting a storm's path, but over the same time the accuracy of their intensity forecasts has remained virtually unchanged.

"To really get after that you're talking tens of millions of dollars, if not more, to reach an ambitious goal," Read said. "We've made a steady gain in the improvement of the track forecasts, and we haven't figured out how to do that yet for rapid intensification."

That could take between five and 10 years, he said.

Read said he's satisfied for now with the $3 million the government is spending this year for research into improving intensity forecasts. Long-term improvement, however, would require a sustained investment.

Read took the helm of the National Hurricane Center in January. The six-month Atlantic hurricane season which officially began June 1 is his first as director. The center monitors the movement and strength of tropical weather systems and issues storm watches and warnings for the U.S. and surrounding areas.

Read said he expects to spend a lot of time talking about preparing for storms, as other directors have. He said it's denial, not complacency, that keeps many people from being prepared. They just don't think a storm will hit, and that's what emergency managers and others have to overcome, he said.

Read also talked about the sensitive issue of a suggested link between global warming and hurricanes, acknowledging it carries "so much emotional baggage" it can be "really hard to sift out the science."

Read said he agreed with others at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and that the link between global warming and hurricanes "is still to be determined." While people who model climate largely believe "global warming is real and it's going to get worse," Read said, there is much more disagreement about the effect of warming on tropical storms and whether the number and intensity of storms will be affected.

"All of that comes out as different numbers. I think there are a lot of unresolved issues in the science," Read said.

WEATHER NOTE

Hurricane shelter lacks in Lee County, officials say

• Click here to download the 2008 Hurricane Guide

By MARY WOZNIAK
mwozniak@news-press.com

Lee County is far short of the hurricane shelter space it needs to house residents at risk during a Category 3 hurricane and the problem will not be remedied anytime soon because of cost, county officials say.

County statistics show hurricane shelters are 47,000 spaces short of what the county needs to protect residents in a Category 3 storm, said John Wilson, Lee County director of public safety. A Category 3 storm packs winds of 111 to 130 mph, with storm surge — a continual rise of water that is pushed ashore — generally 9 to 12 feet above normal.

Besides a lack of money to retrofit existing buildings as shelters, there is a lack of places to turn into shelters that are outside of the county’s storm surge area, Wilson said.

The deficiency is even worse in the case of a severe Category 4 or 5 hurricane smashing into Lee County, a state evaluation of county hurricane shelters shows. A Category 4 storm has winds of 131 to 155 mph and surge generally 13 to 18 feet above normal; Category 5 is winds greater than 155 mph and surge generally greater than 18 feet above normal.

The county lacks 96,779 spaces and is 1.8 million square feet short of what it needs in those severe storms, the 2008 study by the state Division of Emergency Management concludes.

But even if the county is already lacking in space at the Category 3 level, there is no way the county can meet the state’s higher standard, Wilson said.

“We can’t afford the state standard,” Wilson said. “It’s just not a realistic standard.”

The Category 3 standard has proved to be adequate, Wilson said. Is it reasonable to spend money to address the shelter deficit at a Category 4 or 5 need, “or is it more reasonable to look at the storm situation that will most likely occur?” he asked.

A Category 3 is more likely than a Category 4 or 5, as defined by storm surge models, Wilson said.

Charley, a Category 4 hurricane, clobbered Lee and Charlotte counties on Aug. 13, 2004. But the county’s Category 3 shelter standard was sufficient because the storm surge expected with Charley did not materialize, Wilson said.

The state’s regulations are mandated by law for shelters that received designation since 1995, said Blair Heusdens, a spokeswoman for the Division of Emergency Management.

But the regulations can be waived under unique circumstances if a county requests it and the state agrees, she said in e-mails responding to questions.

Lee County was granted such a waiver in the early 1990s, Wilson said.

“We have a high area at risk. We have very little interior area to support us. We have high evacuation times,” Wilson said.

Little infrastructure is available inland to turn into hurricane shelters and much of the space is in the Density Reduction/Groundwater Resource area in southeast Lee County, a natural storage area for the county’s water supply.

“The state recognizes that Lee County faces unique challenges in sheltering because of the geography and population of the county,” Heusdens wrote. Local officials will use the best options they can find to meet residents’ needs, she wrote.

In this case, it’s the best cost option.

Wilson said it costs $250 to $285 per square foot to retrofit a building just to meet Category 3 standards.

Using the minimum $250 number and multiplying it by the 1.8 million square feet the state says Lee County is deficient, the county would have to ante up $471 million to meet the need. And that’s in a struggling economy.

“It’s an impressive number,” Wilson said. “Is it appropriate to shoot for and use taxpayers’ money?”

In the meantime, the county has earmarked $1 million for hurricane shelters in the 2007-2008 capital improvement plan. The largest amount the county has spent for shelters in the four years since Hurricane Charley is $3 million in 2006-2007.

“I’m surprised it’s that much because of the property tax,” Lee County Commissioner Bob Janes said of the $1 million figure. “The tax income really constrains us from doing a lot of that stuff. It’s just a problem, but it’s terribly difficult to find a way to eliminate it.”

The county has been working with area schools to retrofit them as shelters, Janes said. “But when you live in the flood plain, it’s terribly difficult to find buildings. If you just build a building for a hurricane shelter, what are you going to use it for the rest of the time?”

The county uses the same square footage as the state does to calculate the amount
of space needed to house a person in a hurricane shelter — 20 square feet.

“So far we have been able to shelter anyone who needed a place,” Wilson said.

“Whether we can do that in the future, we don’t know.”

As the county tries to catch up in providing space, the population keeps increasing, he said.

The lack of space is worrisome, as is the fact that the vast majority of people don’t use existing shelters, said John Cain, disaster coordinator for the Lee County Chapter of the American Red Cross.

“I don’t know how to balance that,” Cain said. “We’ll always be there, the Red Cross, to help out before, during and after, but certainly if people are not offered sufficient shelter it’s a big concern.”

The county’s current goal is to provide enough shelters in a Category 3 hurricane for 21 percent of the population at risk, Wilson said. That is the number of residents who say they would evacuate to a shelter in a hurricane, according to a 1990s study.

“We are hard-pressed to meet the standards at 21 percent,” Wilson said.

The county is considering dropping that number to 10 percent in a revision of the county’s comprehensive plan, while at the same time raising the category standard from 3 to 5, Wilson said. The 10 percent is the number of people who actually used shelters during hurricanes Charley and Wilma, he said.

That plan revision would be subject to public hearings, probably in the fall, he said.
But a new summary of a study of public response to Hurricane Wilma shows that many people may have not heard officials’ orders to evacuate and they remain in the dark about the damage a severe hurricane can cause.

In Wilma:
• Only 7 percent of those who evacuated went to a public shelter.

• Those who didn’t evacuate based their decision on the severity of the storm or its track, given their home’s location, and the absence of advice or orders from public officials.

• Only half the residents in mobile homes thought their homes would flood in a Category 4 hurricane.

“It is a question of what can a taxpayer afford to spend for safety,” Wilson said. “We made the decision. Is it a good one?

UK Chasers have a near miss!




MARINE NOTE

‘BAD FOR BUSINESS’ : Shipowners buck new sailing guidelines during storms

The Philippine Coast Guard’s new, more stringent guidelines for ships sailing during storms could be tested soon if the prevailing tropical depression turns into a typhoon.

Ship owners and operators, however, have voiced their opposition to the rules, claiming these would be detrimental to passengers and business.

The interim guidelines prohibit a vessel from leaving port when Storm Signal No. 1 has been raised at its port of origin, along its route or at its port of destination.

The interim rules were issued after the sinking of the MV Princess of the Stars off Sibuyan Island in Romblon province at the height of Typhoon “Frank” (international codename: Fengshen) on June 21 while the ship was en route to Cebu with over 800 passengers and crew on board.

Passengers still missing

Majority of the passengers remain missing and are presumed to have gone down with the ship owned by Sulpicio Lines. Only 57 persons have survived the ferry sinking.

Yesterday, the PCG reminded ship owners and operators about the new guidelines which go into effect once the weather bureau—the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)—has raised a storm signal.

“If a signal is raised, it would be the first time the guidelines would be tested,” said PCG spokesperson Lt. Commander Armand Balilo.

Balilo said the guidelines would be followed until new ones are issued.

Vessels at sea

Under the guidelines, vessels already at sea must seek shelter immediately when Signal No. 1 is raised in its vicinity, along its intended route or at its destination.

Vessels would only be allowed to leave a port to seek shelter elsewhere if they have no passengers or cargo.

“Responsibility and discretion on how to seek shelter and ensure the safety of the ship is left to the ship owner and master of the vessel,” the PCG said.

But ship owners have contested the new rules, saying they would result in passengers being stranded, businesses suffering delays and income being lost if they were implemented.

Instead, the Philippine Interisland Shipping Association (PISA) proposed the guidelines be modified to leave to the owners’ discretion the decision to allow their vessels to sail when Signal No. 1 has been raised at the port of origin, along the route or destination, and if the probability of the storm signal being raised further was nil.

PISA also proposed the old guidelines be changed to allow vessels with 2,000 gross tons and under to sail and take shelter at Signal No. 2 if it is carrying no passengers but only cargo.

16 to 20 typhoons

PISA said between 16 and 20 typhoons hit the country a year with each lingering three to five days. The new guidelines would mean no ships could sail at least 50, possibly 100, days a year, it said.

It pointed out the shipping industry transports some 47 million passengers and moves 73 million metric tons of cargo a year, numbers that would be adversely affected under the interim guidelines.

Explosion Sinks Boat In Anne Arundel County

EDGEWATER -- A 35-foot boat exploded outside the Selby Bay Yacht Club in Edgewater.

A fire spokesperson said the boat was having mechanical problems and when the boat was put in neutral, it exploded.Elizabeth Spencer of Alexander, Va., was thrown into the water after the explosion and was taken to a nearby hospital. The spokesperson said that her injuries are minor.The boat burned and eventually sunk in 17 feet of water.

RS

When the Levee Breaks: Is the Culprit Rain--Or Overdevelopment?

When the Levee Breaks: Is the Culprit Rain--Or Overdevelopment?

At least 19 levees in Iowa, Illinois and Missouri have failed over the past week after heavy rains, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers—and workers swarmed to shore up others with sandbags to prevent rising waters in the Mississippi and its tributaries from overflowing and washing away surrounding communities, farmland and soil. Engineers blame overdevelopment—and potentially poor maintenance of the levees—for the flooding.

"Whenever you have development, you are going to increase the runoff, increase how much the rivers and streams have to carry," says civil engineer W. Gene Corley, a senior vice president at CTLGroup, an engineering firm that evaluates infrastructure, such as levees. "The other side of that is that if you don't have development, you don't have housing for people or business or manufacturing."

In addition, by paving over previously open space—or farming previously reserved lands—communities in these watersheds contribute to record high waters through increased runoff.

This extra runoff is why waters in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for example, rose to a record 30-plus feet (over nine meters). "The amount of development that has happened in communities up and down the river way creates less opportunity for water to be absorbed back into the earth as opposed to just running off," notes structural engineer Jeffrey Garrett, president and CEO of CTLGroup. "Suddenly, you've got a lot more water that has to flow between the levees."

Efforts to carve a controlled channel for the Missouri, Mississippi and their tributary rivers also contributed to the problem. The reason: the Mississippi now flows through a conduit roughly half the width of its channel that existed before most of the levees were built, which means more water passes faster through a narrower area. "Channeling the river means you are going to have higher crests in the river," Corley notes, that are sometimes higher than the levees built previously to contain them.

Ultimately, levee breaches in places like Gulfport, Ill., help preserve communities farther downriver—by siphoning off some of the raging waters. (When a levee breaks, some water remains and inundates the land behind the breached embankment. This lowered volume reduces the pressure downstream.)

The majority of levees in the Midwest have held so far during the torrential downpours, although those that failed, Corley says, may also have been poorly maintained. But, he adds, "it's too early to tell" the exact reasons the levees failed.

Failure to build strong enough levees—and fix known flaws in them—was blamed for catastrophic flooding in New Orleans, Mississippi and Alabama after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which killed more than 1,800 people and caused more than $81 billion in damage.

WEATHER NOTE

US plans storm warning system for East Africa

By FRANK JORDANS
Associated Press Writer

GENEVA — Cell phone users in East Africa will be able to receive warnings when a storm is brewing thanks to a low-cost alert system U.S. scientists are hoping to set up in the next few years, officials said Tuesday.

The NextStorm system — a computer program that analyzes recent satellite images to predict where thunderstorms are likely to occur in the next hour — should be in place by the end of the decade, said Jacqueline Schafer of USAID told journalists in Geneva.

The U.S. development agency has already set up a similar system set to begin operating this summer in Central America together with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and local partners.

Local officials will use the information to alert the population by radio, television and mobile text message.

The system does not replace longer-term forecasts warning of hurricanes and tropical storms, which can take days to reach full strength.

The weather images cost almost nothing to use, because they are already being gathered routinely by geostationary satellites. The text messages are also especially valuable in developing countries where many people have mobile phones but no fixed-line service.

This makes the alert system comparatively cheap to install compared with the sophisticated weather radars developed countries use.

Exact figures are difficult to come by, but Schafer estimated that the Panama center which covers Central America has so far cost NOAA and USAID about $12 million.

Sometimes even moderate storms can cause millions of dollars in damage that could be reduced if residents get timely warnings to protect their livestock, secure their belongings and go indoors.

The new system in East Africa will also include facilities to map the spread of diseases and other hazards.

So far 14 countries in the region have joined the project, which is being assisted by the Geneva-based Group on Earth Observations, known as GEO.

GEO director Jose Achache said the American system would be compatible with others currently being developed, including one Japan is working on to alert parts of Asia to imminent storms.

Hurricane Chief: Funds, Research Can Improve Hurricane Forecasting

June 26, 2008

The National Hurricane Center's director says his organization would need tens of millions of dollars over the next decade for research to reduce substantially the errors in forecasting the intensity of hurricanes.

In an interview with The Associated Press on June 24, Bill Read said reducing errors by half would be a costly and time-consuming venture.

Intensity forecasts are much harder for meteorologists than predictions of where the hurricane will track.

Read also talked about the sensitive issue of a link between global warming and hurricanes. Read acknowledged that while people who model storms largely suggest global warming is real and going to get worse, they differ on the possible outcomes for hurricanes.

MARITIME NOTE

US Coast Guard responses to false maritime calls cost all parties involved

Friday, 27 June 2008

During the month of June, Coast Guard Sector Lake Michigan units have responded to several calls that were heard on VHF channel 16 by people claiming to be in distress on the water.

On June 1, the Coast Guard responded to a radio call made by a child. The subsequent hour and a half search by a 25-foot small boat from Coast Guard Station Milwaukee and a HH-65 helicopter from Coast Guard Air Facility Waukegan for a supposed mariner in distress cost taxpayers an estimated $14,340.

For more than 210 years, the U.S. Coast Guard has responded to distress calls at sea and in local waterways. Usually the callers are truly in distress. But some of those calls are suspected or found to be false distress calls or hoaxes.

This causes concern because hoax calls hurt in the following ways: The Coast Guard by placing our people in danger by operating ships, boats and aircraft, responding to these false distress calls; the taxpayer by wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars annually; and those truly in distress by interfering with legitimate search-and-rescue cases.

It is a federal felony for anyone to knowingly and wilfully communicates a false distress message to the Coast Guard or causes the Coast Guard to attempt to save lives and property when no help is needed. Penalties include up to six years in prison, $250,000 fine, $5,000 civil penalty, and possible reimbursement to the Coast Guard for costs of the search.

The Coast Guard must remain vigilant and take all distress calls seriously. The maritime environment is too dangerous to do otherwise. The perpetrator of a hoax call is fleecing America and the Coast Guard is working with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and Department of Justice to prosecute and recover costs for the federal government on behalf of the taxpayer.

If you hear a hoax, or you have information that might lead to the perpetrator of a hoax, call the nearest U.S. Coast Guard unit or contact the FCC.

State reimbursed $1.8m for Pasha Bulker salvage

THE NSW Government will be reimbursed $1.8 million for securing and salvaging the Pasha Bulker after the ship ran aground off Newcastle.

Ports and Waterways Minister Joe Tripodi said the amount was negotiated by Newcastle Port Corporation after a claim was lodged with Britannia Steam Ship Insurance Association in October last year.

The $1.8 million covers all the costs incurred by the State Government during the month-long rescue of the 225-metre bulk carrier, which ran aground off Nobbys Beach in wild weather in June last year.

"The rescue effort combined the skills and expertise of a wide range of agencies and personnel," Mr Tripodi said in a statement.

"The insurance claim was lodged in October and Newcastle Port Corporation worked on behalf of all the NSW agencies involved to reach an agreement."

The claim covered costs for labour, equipment hire, security, vessel and helicopter hire and services for response personnel. The settlement includes resources used as a precaution against an oil spill under the Marine Pollution Act.

The Government initially sought $1.95 million, which covered an administration surcharge and the Newcastle Port Corporation equipment.

However, the port corporation accepted the additional surcharge would not be paid as it was not an expense incurred by the State Government.

"This settlement covers the costs incurred by NSW taxpayers attributable to the Pasha Bulker incident. The settlement is a good outcome," Mr Tripodi said.

RS

Extreme Ocean Storms Have Become More Frequent Over Past Three Decades, Study Of Tiny Tremors Shows

Extreme Ocean Storms Have Become More Frequent Over Past Three Decades, Study Of Tiny Tremors Shows

ScienceDaily (Apr. 21, 2008) —Data from faint earth tremors caused by wind-driven ocean waves -- often dismissed as "background noise" at seismographic stations around the world -- suggest extreme ocean storms have become more frequent over the past three decades. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other prominent researchers have predicted that stronger and more frequent storms may occur as a result of global warming trends. The tiny tremors, or microseisms, offer a new way to discover whether these predictions are already coming true, said Richard Aster, a geophysics professor at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology.

Unceasing as the ocean waves that trigger them, the microseisms show up as five- to 30-second oscillations of Earth's surface at seismographic stations around the world. Even seismic monitoring stations "in the middle of a continent are sensitive to the waves crashing all around the continent," Aster said.

As storm winds drive ocean waves higher, the microseism signals increase their amplitude as well, offering a unique way to track storm intensities across seasons, over time, and at different geographical locations. For instance, Aster and colleagues Daniel McNamara from the U.S. Geological Survey and Peter Bromirski of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography recently published analysis in the Seismological Society of America journal Seismological Research Letters showing that microseism data collected around the Pacific Basin and throughout the world could be used to detect and quantify wave activity from multi-year events such as the El Niño and La Niña ocean disruptions.

The findings spurred them to look for a microseism signal that would reveal whether extreme storms were becoming more common in a warming world. In fact, they saw "a remarkable thing," among the worldwide microseism data collected from 1972 to 2008, Aster recalled. In 22 of the 22 stations included in the study, the number of extreme storm events had increased over time, they found.

While the work on evaluating changes in extreme storms is "still very much in its early stages", Aster is "hoping that the study will offer a much more global look" at the effects of climate change on extreme storms and the wind-driven waves that they produce. At the moment, most of the evidence linking the two comes from studies of hurricane intensity and shoreline erosion in specific regions such as the Pacific Northwest Gulf of Mexico, he noted.

The researchers are also working on recovering and digitizing older microseism records, potentially creating a data set that stretches back to the 1930s. Aster praised the work of the long-term observatories that have collected the records, calling them a good example of the "Cinderella science"--unloved and overlooked--that often support significant discoveries.

"It's absolutely great data on the state of the planet. We took a prosaic time series, and found something very interesting in it," he said.

WEATHER NOTE

FEMA plans evacuation exercise in New Orleans

NEW ORLEANS -- State and federal officials have scheduled an evacuation exercise next month in Louisiana as they prepare for the 2008 hurricane season.

The July 9 exercise for Orleans, St. Barnard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles and St. John the Baptist parishes will test the ability of cities and parishes to register and transport people to shelters, according to a news release from the Federal Emergency Management Agency."FEMA is working closely with parish and state officials to provide what they need to evacuate anyone who needs help leaving. We're focusing on the elderly, hospital and nursing home residents and those who have no other transportation available to them," Michael Hall, who's leading FEMA's preparedness activities in Louisiana, said in the release.Mark Cooper, director of Louisiana's Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness office, said the state Department of Transportation and Development has signed contracts for 700 motor coaches to move those who are fleeing an approaching storm like Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the city and the Gulf Coast in 2005.

In addition to the state's bus contract, FEMA recently signed a national contract with AMTRAK to provide passenger trains to help move critical needs residents out of the area when an evacuation is ordered.The July exercise will test bus and rail resources, along with the role the Louis Armstrong International Airport will play.

Geospatial Intelligence and Imagery Aid in Midwest Flood Response

WASHINGTON, D.C. --The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is working with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to support flood response efforts in the Midwest.

NGA is providing analysis, unclassified commercial imagery of flooded areas and geospatial intelligence products to FEMA and emergency responders in the affected areas to aid in rescue and recovery efforts. The products include graphics of major infrastructure, such as the location of airports, hospitals, police and fire stations, emergency operations centers, hazardous material locations, highways and schools.

FEMA, state and local responders use the products to aid in damage assessments, estimate housing needs, position supplies and other resources and coordinate relief efforts. The graphics also provide a common operating picture that helps enable local, state and federal officials work together more effectively and efficiently.

Through the NGA's crisis response portal, the public has access to some of the images, allowing property owners to broadly assess property damage without having to physically visit the area. NGA established its Earth site in 2005 after realizing victims of Hurricane Katrina could use commercial geospatial imagery to check damage to their property along the Gulf Coast.

The NGA Earth site uses the Internet to provide emergency responders and the public a single, easy-to-use entry point for locating timely, relevant, unclassified geospatial information in the event of a disaster or crisis. The NGA Earth site (http://www.nga-earth.org/) is updated as new images are made available. In addition to the images hosted at this location, the site provides links to other federal agency sites and is an access point to leverage other NGA geospatial expertise and products.

NGA's mission is to provide timely, relevant and accurate geospatial intelligence in support of the nation. The term "geospatial intelligence" means the exploitation and analysis of imagery and geospatial information to describe, assess and visually depict physical features and geographically referenced activities on the Earth.

FEMA coordinates the federal government's role in preparing for, preventing, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all domestic disasters, whether natural or man-made, including acts of terror.

MARITIME NOTE

Ship’s insurance limited

THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH CHOICE BUT to take over the salvage operations for the sunken MV Princess of the Stars because the vessel’s insurance coverage is limited to passengers and cargo and does not extend to ship damage, Sen. Manuel Roxas said.

Roxas said the government should act fast to prevent the shipwreck from causing any more damage to the environment because of its dangerous cargo of fuel and pesticide.

It should not wait any more for the shipowner, Sulpicio Lines, to take action, the senator said.

Roxas said that while Sulpicio was not compelled to purchase such insurance under the law because it was mainly a passenger and not a cargo liner, it should have obtained the insurance out of prudence considering its long history of disasters dating back to the sinking of the MV Doña Paz in 1987, considered the worst civilian maritime disaster in history in terms of lives lost (more than 4,000).

The senator said this could be the reason why it was taking Sulpicio such a long time to salvage its sunken ship. He recalled the well-funded salvage operations for the capsized Solar I that caused the Guimaras oil spill in 2006.

“This is one of the regulation loopholes that we hope to plug in the Senate investigation,” said Roxas.

The Oriental Assurance Corp., Sulpicio’s insurer, said the estimated 800 people on board the Princess of the Stars were covered by an accident insurance policy with the firm.

“Yes, passengers of Sulpicio Lines are insured by us, and we guarantee the payment of claims,” said Luz Cotoco, executive vice president of Oriental Assurance.

She said Oriental Assurance was financially healthy and capable of servicing all claims.

Cotoco declined to give the amount of insurance coverage for each passenger, saying Sulpicio Lines has asked that all insurance-related queries be directed to the shipping company.

An industry source said, however, that Oriental Assurance would pay P200,000 per passenger, or a total of about P160 million, to cover the estimated 800 people on board the sunken ship.

The source said Sulpicio Lines also has a P350-million marine hull insurance policy with Oriental Assurance that covers the cost of the ship.

But the owner of a rival shipping firm said that insuring the passengers and the vessel was not enough.

He said Sulpicio should have gotten, aside from accident insurance coverage for its passengers, a protective and indemnity insurance (P&I).

All responsible shipping firms know that getting P&I is absolutely necessary in the shipping business, the source said.

P&I is a form of a third-party liability insurance. It covers the cost of cleaning up possible oil spills and messes resulting from a shipwreck. P&I also covers the cost of the damage when a ship collides with another, or causes damage to other assets.

P&I is like the CTPL [comprehensive third-party liability] for cars, the rival shipowner said.

He said Sulpicio tried but failed to get P&I coverage three years ago, because no insurance company wanted to provide cover, knowing that Sulpicio’s ships were not in perfect condition.

Oriental Assurance said Sulpicio did not have a P&I policy with the firm.

Denis Cabucos, chief of the licensing division of the Insurance Commission, said he knew that Sulpicio has accident insurance coverage for its passengers but was not aware if it had P&I coverage.

Cabucos explained that insurance companies are not required to provide the Insurance Commission with a list of their policy holders.

But he said the commission would act on any insurance-related complaints received by its public assistance division.

Vicente Suazo, administrator of the Maritime Industry Authority, confirmed that Sulpicio did not have P&I insurance. But he said P&I coverage was not required by law.

“What is more important is accident insurance coverage for passengers. That is the one required by law [Republic Act No. 9295],” Suazo said in a phone interview.

He said it was arguable whether P&I was indispensable for shipping companies, but Sulpico Lines did not break the law by not having one.

RS

The 4th of JULY

The Star Spangled Banner

History: In 1814, about a week after the city of Washington had been badly burned, British troops moved up to the primary port at Baltimore Harbor in Maryland. Francis Scott Key visited the British fleet in the Harbor on September 13th to secure the release of Dr. William Beanes who had been captured during the Washington raid. The two were detained on the ship so as not to warn the Americans while the Royal Navy attempted to bombard Fort McHenry. At dawn on the 14th, Key noted that the huge American flag, which now hangs in the Smithsonian's American History Museum, was still waving and had not been removed in defeat. The sight inspired him to write a poem entitled Defense of Fort McHenry; later the poem was set to music that had been previously composed for another song by a Mr. Smith.

The end result was the inspiring song now considered the national anthem of the United States of America. It was accepted as such by public demand for the next century or so, but became even more accepted as the national anthem during the World Series of Baseball in 1917 when it was sung in honor of the brave armed forces fighting in the Great War. The World Series performance moved everyone in attendance, and after that it was repeated for every game. Finally, on March 3, 1931, the American Congress proclaimed it as the national anthem, 116 years after it was first written.

The Star Spangled Banner
By Francis Scott Key

Oh, say can you see by the dawn's early light
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming?
Whose broad stripes and bright stars thru the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.
Oh, say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

On the shore, dimly seen through the mists of the deep,
Where the foe's haughty host in dread silence reposes,
What is that which the breeze, o'er the towering steep,
As it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses?
Now it catches the gleam of the morning's first beam,
In full glory reflected now shines in the stream:
'Tis the star-spangled banner!  Oh long may it wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

And where is that band who so vauntingly swore
That the havoc of war and the battle's confusion,
A home and a country should leave us no more!
Their blood has washed out their foul footsteps' pollution.
No refuge could save the hireling and slave
From the terror of flight, or the gloom of the grave:
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

Oh! thus be it ever, when freemen shall stand
Between their loved home and the war's desolation!
Blest with victory and peace, may the heav'n rescued land
Praise the Power that hath made and preserved us a nation.
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto:  "In God is our trust."
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

ENJOY A VERY SAFE BOATING AND ENJOYABLE LONG WEEKEND!
Robin Storm

New Solar Cycle Not Packing Much Punch

New Solar Cycle Not Packing Much Punch

Many solar scientists expected the new sunspot cycle to be a whopper, a prolonged solar tantrum that could fry satellites and raise hell with earthly communications, the power grid and modern electronics.

But there's scant proof Sunspot Cycle 24 is even here, let alone the debut of big trouble.

So far there have been just a couple minor zits on the face of the sun to suggest the old cycle is over and the new one is coming.

The roughly 11-year cycle of sunspot activity should have bottomed out last year, the end of Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24. That would have put the peak in new sunspot activity around 2012.

But a dud sunspot cycle would not necessarily make it a boring period, especially for two solar scientists with the Tucson-based National Solar Observatory.

Two years ago, William Livingston and Matt Penn wrote a paper for the journal Science predicting that this could not only be a dud sunspot cycle, but the start of another extended down period in solar activity. It was based on their analysis of weakening sunspot intensity and said sunspots might vanish by 2015.

And here's the punch line: That last long-term down period, 1645-1715, coincided with the Little Ice Age, a period of bitter cold winters.

That kind of talk could ruffle some feathers in this time of climate change and global warming, starring man-made carbon dioxide as the devil.

The paper, rejected in peer review, was never published by Science. Livingston said he's OK with the rejection.

"I accept what the reviewers said," Livingston said. "'If you are going to make such statement, you had better have strong evidence.' "

Livingston said their projections were based on observations of a trend in decreasingly powerful sunspots but reviewers felt it was merely a statistical argument.

He is aware that some opponents of the prevailing position that climate change and global warming are the result of manmade activity -- greenhouse gas, specifically carbon dioxide, buildup -- are very much interested in the idea that changes might be related to solar activity.

"But it has not been proven yet," cautioned Livingston, an astronomer emeritus who still works out of an office at the National Optical Astronomy Observatory headquarters building on the University of Arizona campus.

"We may have to wait. We may be wrong. (But) the sun is going to entertain us one way or another," he said.

It's not just a scientific curiosity. There's a lot at stake in predicting whether sunspot cycles are going to be tame or wild, said Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory.

The powerful blasts of radiation that come from solar activity can fry electronic equipment on Earth; particularly vulnerable are satellites.

The high-energy radiation produced by solar flares travels at near the speed of light, getting to Earth in just minutes.

But the magnetic effects of a solar flare can take between two and three days to reach Earth, said Penn, a solar scientist.

In the 1800s, magnetic blasts from intense solar activity induced currents in telegraph lines in the U.S. and Italy, starting fires and damaging equipment. Later, it was learned that solar activity affected radio transmission.

It can also affect the electrical-power grid. A solar tantrum in 1989 blew transformers and caused a blackout in Canada. And a number of satellites are thought to have failed from exposure to high-energy blasts from solar activity.

Satellite operators can turn them away or shut down vulnerable equipment aboard, and astronauts can use shielding to avoid those blasts.

If Cycle 24 is the big cycle predicted, Penn said, "it's likely we'll have geomagnetic storms with a lot of sunspots, a lot of flares on the sun."

Penn said even so-called "quiet sun" periods are far from boring because the sun's "surface consists of Texas-sized hot gas bubbles, which rise upward at a speed of about a mile per second. The gas cools and falls downward in narrower channels at about the same speed. That's what we call the 'quiet sun.'"

"As we get more into the space environment with satellites, GPS and communication satellites, it means money. People who are about to launch new communication satellites really want to know how much shielding to put on their satellites.

"But shielding amounts to weight, which is money. If they want them to last through (an intense cycle), they're going to want to protect them more, and that will cost them more."

Penn is the telescope scientist on the McMath-Pierce solar telescope, the strange angular white thing amid all the white and silver-domed things atop Kitt Peak. Specifically, Penn works with an instrument that "sees" in the infrared range to provide information about magnetic activity.

Sometimes, sunspot activity is more than theory or data to him.

Several years ago, he was making an early-morning run from Tucson up to Kitt Peak to do some solar observing. He noticed his gas gauge was dangerously low and decided to stop for gas at the convenience store in Three Points.

It was about 5 a.m., and no one was there to take cash, so he tried to use his credit card to gas up. But the pay-at-the-pump system was down.

Crossing his fingers and driving up the mountain, Penn said he hoped he'd have enough gas after work to make it back to the station on the way home.

When he got to work, he learned that "a communications satellite had been damaged by (a solar flare). Lots of communications were dropped that morning, and my credit-card pay-at-the-pump attempt was one of them."

Though Aimee Norton appreciates the practical benefits of being able to predict the sun's activity, solving some of the star's mysteries that relate to the big picture are more compelling. Norton is a program scientist on the solar observatory's SOLIS (Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun) facility at Kitt Peak.

"Part of what we're trying to understand is how the magnetic field regulates or moderates the energy that is transported in the atmosphere," Norton said. "Because one of the mysteries of the sun is, it's hotter in the upper atmosphere than (at the surface). So there is energy being transported. Some people think the magnetic field is somehow magically getting that energy out there."

Norton said she's hoping for a powerful cycle, noting, "It would give us more things to do research with -- either that or no cycle at all, which would be similar to the Maunder Minimum."

She said she figures there's little chance of a completely dead cycle but added, "Wouldn't that be fascinating if the solar system managed to offset our contribution?"

Because you can't go

WEATHER NOTE

Seiche Strikes Chicago Lakeshore

For the second time in a month, the Chicago lakeshore has experienced a seiche. The word is Swiss French and means "to sway back and forth." The results can be deadly for waders along beaches of southern Lake Michigan, who can only see this danger as a frequent fluctuation of lakeshore water. Worldwide, there are various reasons for its creation. But for Lake Michigan, it always results from a thunderstorm or line of storms crossing Lake Michigan. Decaying thunderstorm processes will usually result in a strong pressure rise ahead of the decaying storm.

Since water is fluid, this rapid rise in pressure will push a large area of lake water downward and out. This can occur often over the lake. But to arrive at the Chicago lakeshore and start an oscillation going, the pressure rise will need to have occurred over Lake Michigan at a location north of Milwaukee. The resulting outward flowing crest then travels southeast to the west Michigan lakeshore, before rebounding southwest to the Chicago lakeshore.

Lake water rises of 1 to 2 feet are most common but have been known to go much higher. Most prominent in Chicago history is the 1954 seiche that occurred on June 26th. Eight fishermen were swept away in a 10 foot seiche as they worked along the breakwaters. While most seiches appear only as a fluctuation of high and low tides, an actual wave was visible with this monster seiche of 1954. Clues to their presence are only received at the National Weather Service via alert and cognizant observers on the Michigan or Chicago lakeshore.

The oscillation frequency between high and low water is usually 20 to 30 minutes. Gravity eventually takes charge and dampens the fluctuation extremes with time. Thus it may take many hours before the seiche subsides completely. This, in turn, depends on the severity of the seiche.

Hurricane Boris Says Hello a Month Late

Hurricane Season Started June First ByIt is always nice to get the first hurricane of the season -- this one is Hurricane Boris -- out of the way especially when, for all intensive purposes it is of a mild nature and apparently presents no threat to land. The hurricane, dubbed "Hurricane Boris" got its start over the weekend as a tropical storm and as it moved into the Pacific Ocean and away from land it developed into a category one level hurricane.

For those of you not familiar with Hurricane categorization, hurricanes are rated from class one to class five with five being the strongest. I recall David Letterman many years ago, when he was a weatherman in Indianapolis, congratulating a hurricane on its promotion from tropical storm; perhaps we can recount the joke here many times we wouldn't be able to. Most attention is paid to the Atlantic since that is where the majority of storms start and where, and then the majorities of hurricanes develop and come to land. In the States that is most often Florida and surrounding states.

What does this year look like? I could almost have told you that it was going to be a volatile year just by the weather in my state and we are never close to a hurricane. This is July 1^st, and we are still not seeing warm and hot weather on any kind of a regular basis. That is the report from those "in the know"; it will be a hard year for hurricanes. In fact, there is a greater than 50% chance that we will have a rugged season. How would one go about defining a "rugged season"? Well, according to the Climate Prediction center there may be over a dozen hurricanes with the majority of them defined as worse than average.

For now, however, Hurricane Boris has weakened with winds at about 75 miles per hour. As I said, I don't live in a "hurricane community". However, for those people who do battle hurricanes every year, I'm reasonably sure Hurricane Boris has not gone unnoticed. Actually he is a little late since hurricane season starts June 1^st. Probably the rest to the year, we'll be looking Southeast, not West. References:

Chertoff Says Country Ready for Hurricane Season, but Wonders if Individuals Are

By Daniel Fowler, CQ Staff

While the nation may be prepared for this year’s hurricane season, questions remain about individual readiness, says Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.

“I think the country is prepared,” Chertoff said Tuesday at the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hurricane Awareness Day. “I think the big question is are individuals taking steps they need on a family basis to get prepared.”

And the country’s overall readiness for the hurricane season should not be taken as a sign that there won’t be difficulties associated with a major hurricane, Chertoff noted.

“Obviously, any major hurricane, Category 3 or above, is going to be a bad event, and it’s going to cause hardship and distress and may cause loss of life,” he said. “Our planning, our capabilities are much better now than they’ve ever been before at the federal level. I believe at the state level, particularly in the Gulf states they are better than they’ve ever been before. The key element though, the cornerstone has got to be that individual preparation.”

Chertoff emphasized that because the past two years have been quiet hurricane-wise doesn’t mean people shouldn’t be prepared.

“If people are lulled into a sense of complacency because 2006 and 2007 didn’t produce a major hurricane in the [United States] and they don’t do the preparation that we’ve recommended, then there is going to be a problem,” he said. “If people do take what I think are pretty reasonable steps, I think that’s going to be the most important and certainly the final piece that has to be in place.”

Chertoff said some steps that families should take include knowing where they will go during an evacuation, having a supply of food, water and medicine, a battery-operated radio and making sure they have gasoline in the their cars when a hurricane watch or warning is announced.

“Getting all of these steps in place, the emergency preparedness kit, the plan and listening to direction is the cornerstone of hurricane preparedness,” he said.

Chertoff said DHS is working with its Ready campaign and the Ad Council and will launch “new public service announcements designed to get people to focus on the simple, but necessary steps they need to take to be ready for hurricane season.”

Chertoff isn’t the only one concerned about individual preparedness.

“Our surveys show that only 7 percent of the American public is ready [with] a plan for a disaster,” said Mary S. Elcano, acting president and chief executive officer of the American Red Cross, who participated in the event. “Only 7 percent have taken the steps necessary to prepare and our view is that in every disaster, every individual and family should consider themselves to be ... the real first-responders. It’s time to get prepared.”

Larry J. Gispert, director of Hillsborough County, Fla., Emergency Management and president of the International Association of Emergency Managers, doesn’t think the “country is ever ready for any hurricane season” and said individual preparedness is the country’s “weakest” link in this area.

“Individual readiness is the biggest part of the whole formula and that’s where we are the weakest,” Gispert said. “We cannot force these citizens to be prepared. They must do that on their own.”

Gispert said most citizens don’t take the threat of hurricanes seriously. “So as a consequence, we can never be ready to respond if the citizens do not listen and will not heed our warnings and as a consequence evacuate when we ask them to,” he said.

But Gispert, who wasn’t at the forum, does think the country is better off now than it was during Hurricane Katrina. He said government agencies from the local to federal level are generally “getting better prepared,” but still aren’t ready.

Craig Fugate, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said FEMA is doing its job to get the country prepared and he’d like to see local and state governments “spending more time like we do in Florida talking about hurricane season.”

“My biggest concern is the public is still too apathetic and doesn’t take responsibility to be a survivor and plays the victim game,” he said.

Daniel Fowler can be reached at dfowler@cq.com.

MARITIME NOTE

Reader's eye on the Riverdance Ferry

SO what will you point your lens at now?

Rapid progress is being made to cut up beached ferry Riverdance – with parts of the stern and bow section being removed from the beach at Anchorsholme.

The ship has attracted thousands of people to the coast since it ran aground on February 1 during a storm. Emergency services managed to get all crew and passengers safely off the vessel.

And ever since Gazette readers have snapped away, taking hundreds of superb shots of the Seatruck's vessel which is now destined for the scrap metal merchants.

Many have captured the drama of the doomed refloating exercise, some show how the ship gradually sank into the sands, while others, as seen here, went for a humorous take.

Soon the photo opportunity and tourist attraction will be no more.
Demotion work, being carried out between tides, is due to be completed by the end of June.

RS

Flood and wind coverage in one?

Flood and wind coverage in one?

NEW ORLEANS - One of the nation's largest insurance companies is lobbying Congress for permission to sell policies that cover damage from both wind and floodwater, a plan billed as a way for insurers and homeowners to avoid costly litigation after disasters such as Hurricane Katrina.

The company, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co., also said that expanding its homeowner policies to include flood coverage could save taxpayer money by reducing costs for the federally subsidized National Flood Insurance Program.

Its plan, which would require congressional approval, calls for the Columbus, Ohio, company to sell flood insurance at the same price as the subsidized NFIP policies. Policyholders would have the option of buying flood coverage beyond the limits of the national program.

Also, unlike other homeowner rates, prices for Nationwide's expanded policies would be exempt from state regulation.

Officials from the insurer have briefed more than a dozen members of Congress on the plan but have not yet drafted a formal proposal.

"This is without a precedent. There are no precursors to this," said Craig Zimpher, Nationwide's vice president for government relations.

Zimpher said the benefits of having one policy cover both wind and flood damage were illustrated by the recent flooding in the Midwest and by its wind-vs.-water disputes with policyholders on the Gulf Coast after Katrina.

In the aftermath of the August 2005 storm, thousands of property owners in Mississippi and Louisiana without flood insurance sued their insurers for refusing to cover damage from Katrina's wind-driven storm surge.

"We see this [plan] as a viable alternative to much of the litigation that occurred post-Katrina," Zimpher said. "No one, whether it's insurers or consumers, benefits from litigation."

Rep. Gene Taylor (D., Miss.), a fierce critic of the insurance industry's handling of Katrina claims, is one of the lawmakers who have been briefed on Nationwide's plan.

Brian Martin, Taylor's policy director, said the proposal could benefit consumers if other insurance companies followed Nationwide's lead and created a competitive market for flood coverage. Such coverage is a risk that private insurance companies traditionally have not wanted to take on.

Martin said the plan should also include federal government regulation and oversight so that insurers do not "cherry-pick" policyholders and exclude properties at the greatest risk of flood damage.

"The current system is leaving gaps in coverage," he said. "There will always be disputes as long as you have wind and flood in separate policies."

Nationwide said its expanded homeowner coverage would be voluntary for its customers. The Treasury Department would regulate and "reinsure" Nationwide's flood coverage. The cost of reinsuring Nationwide's policies would be paid in part by a percentage of the flood premiums collected by the company.

Reinsurers sell backup coverage to other insurers, spreading risk so the system can handle large or widespread losses.

While the price of Nationwide's flood coverage would mirror the cost of NFIP policies, prices for the wind, theft and fire portions of the expanded policies would not be subject to government price controls, the company said.

Katrina inspired Nationwide's proposal, but the company says its expanded policies would benefit homeowners far from the Gulf Coast. Many of the homes damaged or destroyed this month by water from the swollen Mississippi River weren't covered by flood insurance.

WEATHER NOTE

Hurricane Center director talks forecasting in interview

By JESSICA GRESKO

Associated Press Writer

MIAMI (AP) - Substantially improving the accuracy of hurricane intensity predictions could take years and tens of millions of dollars, the National Hurricane Center's director said Tuesday.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Bill Read said reducing by half the errors made in tasks such as determining whether a storm would remain a Category 1 or grow stronger would be a costly and long-term effort.

Predicting a storm's intensity is much harder for meteorologists than estimating where it will go. Since 1990, forecasters have reduced by more than half their errors in predicting a storm's path, but over the same time the accuracy of their intensity forecasts has remained virtually unchanged.

``To really get after that you're talking tens of millions of dollars, if not more, to reach an ambitious goal,'' Read said. ``We've made a steady gain in the improvement of the track forecasts, and we haven't figured out how to do that yet for rapid intensification.''

That could take between five and 10 years, he said.

Read said he's satisfied for now with the $3 million the government is spending this year for research into improving intensity forecasts. Long-term improvement, however, would require a sustained investment.

Read took the helm of the National Hurricane Center in January. The six-month Atlantic hurricane season which officially began June 1 is his first as director. The center monitors the movement and strength of tropical weather systems and issues storm watches and warnings for the U.S. and surrounding areas.

Read said he expects to spend a lot of time talking about preparing for storms, as other directors have. He said it's denial, not complacency, that keeps many people from being prepared. They just don't think a storm will hit, and that's what emergency managers and others have to overcome, he said.

Read also talked about the sensitive issue of a suggested link between global warming and hurricanes, acknowledging it carries ``so much emotional baggage'' it can be ``really hard to sift out the science.''

Read said he agreed with others at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and that the link between global warming and hurricanes ``is still to be determined.'' While people who model climate largely believe ``global warming is real and it's going to get worse,'' Read said, there is much more disagreement about the effect of warming on tropical storms and whether the number and intensity of storms will be affected.

``All of that comes out as different numbers. I think there are a lot of unresolved issues in the science,'' Read said.

MARITIME NOTE

USA. Boaters should prepare for July 4 safety

Wednesday, 25 June 2008

With American's busiest boating holiday, July 4th, upon us, the waterways will soon be brimming boaters. The BoatU.S. Foundation for Boating Safety and Clean Water says that making a few extra preparations ahead of time will go a long way towards increasing your family's and friend's safety and fun on the water.

Here are ten tips that will help you stay safe this July 4th holiday weekend:

1. Put safety into your weekend plan: The Foundation's free Online Boating "Toolbox" at http://www.BoatUS.com/Foundation/Guide has helpful information on trip planning and preparation, boating equipment, emergency preparation, navigation, and quizzes to test your knowledge. The Foundation also offers a free NASBLA-approved online boating safety course for residents of more than 30 states at http://www.BoatUS.org/Onlinecourse

2. "Little" guests need life jackets: Everyone wants to be on the boat this holiday weekend, but do you have the right-sized life jacket aboard for any visiting kids? The BoatU.S. Foundation loans children's life jackets for free at over 350 marinas, fuel docks, and other waterfront businesses and boat clubs. To find a location near you go to http://www.BoatUS.com/Foundation/LJLP

3. Take your time to get home: July 4th is the one time a year many fair-weather boaters - who may rarely navigate in the dark - venture out after the sun goes down. The most reported type of boating accident is a collision with another vessel so it's a good idea to keep your speed down, post an extra lookout, and ensure all your navigation lights work. A spotlight is a must, and ensure all safety gear is readily available and life jackets are worn. Be extra vigilant about not running over anchor lines in crowded fireworks viewing areas, and don't take shortcuts in the dark.

4. Wear life jackets: Almost three-quarters of all fatal boating accident victims drowned, and of those, 87% were not wearing a life jacket. Accidents can happen very quickly, sometimes leaving no time to don a life jacket.

5. Don't overload your boat: Resist the urge to invite more friends or family to the fireworks show than what your boat was designed to carry. Heavily loaded small boats, and those with little freeboard such as bass boats, are more susceptible to swamping from weather or wake action associated with heavy July 4th boating traffic.

6. It's a long day: A full day in the sun will increase alcohol's effects on the body, so it's better to wait until you're safely back at the dock or home before breaking out the libations. Also bring lots of water, a VHF radio, and check the weather reports to avoid storms.

7. Know how to get back in the boat: A fall overboard can turn into a life-threatening situation pretty quickly, especially for small boats without built-in boarding ladders. The BoatU.S. Foundation recently tested a range of portable boarding ladders, and you may be surprised what they found. To view video of these ladders in our boarding tests, or learn which ladder may be best for you, see the Foundation Findings #44 at http://www.BoatUS.com/Foundation

8. Never run the engine when swimmers are in the water: Raft-ups, or groups of boats tied together in a protected anchorage, is a great way to spend the holiday with fellow boating friends. But you should never run an engine, or a generator for that matter, with swimmers in the water near exhaust ports or props. Even though the boat's transmission may not be in gear, propellers can still rotate, and odorless, colorless carbon monoxide can quickly overcome swimmers.

9. Take a local boating safety class: The Foundation has most complete list of boating safety courses taught in communities across the country. To find one near you, go to http://www.BoatUS.com/Courseline

10. Cruising offshore? An emergency position indicating rescue beacon (EPIRB) from the BoatU.S. Foundation's EPIRB rental program will give you the margin of safety you need during an offshore passage. These $750 beacons rent for just $40 per week (plus shipping). Go to http://www.BoatUS.com/Foundation/Epirb

RS

Students Join Science Team to Chase and Capture Tornado Data

Students Join Science Team to Chase and Capture Tornado Data

Newswise — Their job is to take measurements of a tornado’s rear flank downdraft.

And yes, said several Iowa State University students who have joined Tim Samaras, a Colorado-based researcher who was named a National Geographic Society “Emerging Explorer” in 2005 and is a principal engineer for Applied Research Associates Inc., some adrenaline is involved. But that’s not why they’re driving instrument-carrying cars a mile or so to the south or east of the storms that have regularly blown across tornado alley this spring and summer.

They’re driving into rain, wind, lightning and hail to chase data: temperature, dew point, barometric pressure, wind speed, wind direction and exact location. The students’ measurements will be analyzed by scientists trying to understand more about how tornadoes are formed.

“We’re measuring air circulation near the tornado,” said Chris Karstens, an Iowa State graduate student in meteorology from Atlantic. “There are questions about that air’s role in forming tornadoes and in tornado longevity. We think it has a central role in tornadoes.”

Karstens, who spent five days on the road with Samaras’ crew last month, said he saw and chased about 12 tornadoes. Most were weak storms. But he saw a few that were a mile wide or bigger.

Bill Gallus, an Iowa State professor of geological and atmospheric sciences, said this is the third year Iowa State students have done field research with Samaras. They’re generally on the road throughout May and June. Students volunteer to be part of Samaras’ “TWISTEX” (Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in/near Tornadoes/Thunderstorms Experiment, http://twistex.org). Those selected are usually experienced storm chasers and have done well in forecasting courses. The students are not paid, but their field expenses are covered. The students’ research is part of an Iowa State project supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and led by Partha Sarkar, an Iowa State professor of aerospace engineering and director of the Wind Simulation and Testing Laboratory.

The idea is to send students out to the field to learn more about how storms develop and evolve, Gallus said. They also learn about working with mobile instruments and taking measurements.

“They come back and they’re so excited about the data they can analyze,” Gallus said.

They’re also excited about the stories they can tell.

Brandon Fisel, a graduate student in meteorology from Hebron, Ind., remembers May 29 near Osborne, Kan. That’s when Samaras dropped three probes containing cameras and instruments in the path of an oncoming tornado. The probes took a direct hit and could yield the first measurements of wind speed at the bottom of a tornado.

W Scott Lincoln, a graduate student in environmental science from Alleman, likes to talk about the day he drove through a tornado that was just beginning to form. He didn’t know what was happening at the time, but the car’s weather instruments later confirmed the storm had begun to circulate over his head.

Jayson Prentice, a senior meteorology student from Terril, says his time with Samaras’ experiment can help him build his research resume for graduate school.

And what about the chase? Does it get scary when the storms kick up, as they have all too often this tornado season?

Well, said Karstens, most of the experiment “is just like you’re on a very long road trip” because the researchers drive hundreds of miles from storm system to storm system.

Prentice remembers the intensity of “a few moments when we were taking near-tornado windfall readings within a mile or a couple of miles of tornadoes. One tornado was over a mile wide.”

But, said Fisel, “the adrenaline is kind of going and you don’t feel scared at all.”

Besides, said Lincoln, the researchers aren’t “yahoo chasers going out for thrills.” They’re calling in reports to the National Weather Service. They’re recording as much data as they can. And they’re working to help scientists develop a better understanding of the deadly and destructive storms.

WEATHER NOTE

A Simulated Hurricane Helps Emergency Responders Prepare

By some predictions, this years Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be well above average: 15 named storms, eight of which hurricanes.

Ed McDonough with PIO MEMA said, "We're trying to prepare for the worst, historically we can say we've only had tropical storms in Maryland, but certainly history can be changed."

That's why local, State and Federal agencies held a hurricane simulation Tuesday.

McDonough also said, "We've worked on procedures to notify the public, almost like the tornado type notification, what they should do and how to protect themselves from very high winds."

Matt Bassett, with MDOT said, "It gives us as an agency the opportunity to coordinate without lives having to be put on the line, so when it does happen we're ready."

Officials urge everyone to be prepared ahead of time with a kit containing water, non-perishable food and blankets.

Hurricane season may catch companies off guard

BY JIM WYSS

After Hurricane Wilma churned through South Florida in 2005, Citibank was having trouble tracking down employees. Even though the company had detailed contact information for its workers, a hotline for them to call, and telephones countywide were working, many employees had only cordless handsets that required electricity to function.

With hurricane season upon us, businesses throughout South Florida are starting to dust off business recovery plans and mull such post-storm pitfalls. Citibank, for one, has been encouraging its employees to have at least one old-fashioned handset that doesn't need additional juice.

But after two years of relatively mild storm seasons, there are some indications that businesses might be growing complacent.

A recent Office Depot survey found that one in four small businesses do not have a disaster recovery plan. The excuses fell into three categories: no time, no money and lack of know how, said Tom Serio, director of global business continuity for Office Depot.

But planning can be as simple as creating a calling tree for employees and storing back-up disks in a zip-lock bag off premises, he said.

The consequences of not planning can be harsh. According to some statistics, about 40 percent of businesses that suffer a major catastrophe never reopen.

The last time South Florida saw a major hit was in October 2005 when Wilma swept through on the heels of Hurricane Katrina. The Small Business Administration reported almost 50,000 requests for business disaster loan applications from the tri-county area and ultimately made 16,622 loans worth $767 million statewide in response to the two storms.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting a ''near normal or above normal'' storm season this year, with 12 to 16 named storms, six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.

Since the one-two punch of Katrina and Wilma, the business community has taken on a larger role in post-storm planning. The private sector has a seat at The Miami-Dade Emergency Operating Center, which spearheads recovery efforts.

During regular meetings, state and local planners have tackled such issues as how to ensure that business owners and their suppliers have access to offices in evacuation zones and how to deal with ATM outages that turn South Florida into a cash-dependent economy.

''FEMA has always looked at helping the public, but we also want to look at how to help the business community,'' said Frank Reddish, recovery mitigation manager at the Miami-Dade Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security. ``The idea is to help the entire business sector to recover faster.''

As part of that effort, Florida International University is working on a website, www.bizrecovery.org, that would be a one-stop shop for the business community and state and local recovery agencies to exchange information ranging from up-to-the-minute damage reports to the availability of tarps at local home improvement stores.

''The main focus from our perspective is to prove a hypothesis that if the business community had a way to organize and muster its resources and share information . . . as a community we can recover faster,'' said Steven Luis, who is spearheading the initiative.

FIU estimates that if it could help just 5 percent of businesses reopen one week faster than usual in the wake of a storm, it would prevent $220 million in losses.

Luis, who is director for IT and business relations for the School of Computing and Information Sciences at FIU, hopes to begin testing the system this hurricane season in preparation for a wider release in 2010.

Speaking to a group of business owners during a meeting of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce last week, Office Depot's Serio said the best time to start planning for a disaster is when there's not one in sight.

''You have to do it while the sun is shining,'' he said. ``If you wait until the wind is blowing, you'll never do it. Avoid becoming a statistic.''

MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard Announces Successful Launch of Nationwide AIS Satellite

WASHINGTON (HQ Publc Affairs) - The U.S. Coast Guard has announced the launch of an ORBCOMM concept demonstration satellite, equipped with Automatic Identification System (AIS) capability, from Kapustin Yar, Russia, Thursday.

The satellite attained a proper orbit and is expected to start transmitting operational data within the next three months. The U.S. Coast Guard Nationwide Automatic Identification System (NAIS) Project sponsored equipment on the satellite to test the feasibility and effectiveness of AIS message reception and reporting from space for ship tracking and other navigational activities. The launch marks an important milestone in the development of the NAIS project.

The NAIS project will improve maritime domain awareness for the U.S. Coast Guard and Department of Homeland Security by using the integrated network of AIS equipment and user interface services that display and exchange AIS-equipped vessel information for maritime safety and security. Data collected by the NAIS supports the nation’s maritime interests by promoting vessel and port safety through collision avoidance, and through detection, traffic identification, and classification of vessels out to 2,000 nautical miles from shore.

The NAIS project is being implemented in three primary increments. Increment one, fielded in September 2007, currently provides the capability to receive AIS messages at 55 critical ports and nine coastal areas across the nation. Increment two (with nationwide AIS transmit and receipt coverage) will provide the capability to receive AIS messages out to 50 nautical miles and transmit AIS messages out to 24 nautical miles along the entire coastline of the U.S. and designated inland waterways. Increment three will extend the coverage for receipt of AIS messages out to 2,000 nautical miles from shore. The upcoming satellite testing will assist in the development of Increment three of the NAIS project.

For more information on the project visit: http://www.uscg.mil/nais/, and for more information on automatic identification system technology, standards and carriage requirements visit: http://www.navcen.uscg.gov/enav/ais/

RS