U.S. crop damage from weather tops $8 billion

U.S. crop damage from weather tops $8 billion

From the worst floods in the Midwest grain belt in 15 years to drought in California, damage to crops from inclement weather has topped $8 billion so far this year, the largest U.S. farm group said on Wednesday.

The damage could rise or contract, depending on weather conditions for the rest of the growing season in the United States, the world's top exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat, the American Farm Bureau Federation said.

The flood damage in the Midwest over the past two weeks has lifted prices for U.S. corn, used for food, renewable fuel ethanol and animal feed, to a record high above $7 a bushel, up about 85 percent since the end of 2006 as of Wednesday.

The AFBF said leading farm state Iowa accounted for about half of the damage.

"Wet weather and flooding create issues, as farmers are unable to plant their crops," said AFBF senior economist Terry Francl. "The crops they do plant do not sprout and grow, resulting in few acres harvest."

"Additionally, the difficult growing conditions greatly reduce the yield of the crop that is harvested," he added.

Francl said he expected Iowa corn yields could fall by 16 percent this year and that 1.5 million to 2 million acres of corn and soybeans in the state that farmers intended to plant this spring will likely remain fallow.

AFBF said this would result in an estimated loss of $4 billion to Iowa's crops, and that other states taking a hit from excessive wet weather and flooding are Illinois with $1.3 billion, Missouri $900 million, Indiana $500 million and Nebraska $500 million.

It said an additional $1 billion in losses were expected in other states where conditions remained wet.

The U.S. Agriculture Department will provide some insight into the extent of crop damage from the floods when it issues its report Monday on how many acres farmers will plant with major crops, including corn and soy, this year.

The AFBF said some states were experiencing dry weather, with drought taking a toll in several Western and Southeastern states. It said northern California battled the driest spring in its history, and as a whole the state suffered $500 million in estimated damage.

AFBF said on a national basis, the corn yield is likely to decline some eight to 10 bushels per acre from the 2008 trend line, mostly due to inclement weather.

The national soybean average yield is also likely to be down one to two bushels per acre from the current U.S. Agriculture Department projection of 42 bushels per acre.

AFBF said the damage estimate is based on the assumption that weather conditions will be normal for the remainder of the growing season, adding that varying weather conditions later in the season could cause the estimate to grow or contract.

(Reporting by K.T. Arasu, editing by Matthew Lewis)

WEATHER NOTE

Annual Severe Weather Report Summary
2008

All Reports | Tornadoes | Wind Damage | Large Hail

'Hurricane Freddy' drilled water management employees during exercise

Palm Beach Post Staff Report

Thursday, June 26, 2008

WEST PALM BEACH — South Florida Water Management District employees participated in a hurricane drill at the emergency operations center Thursday morning.

The South Florida Water Management District is conducted a full-scale, district-wide exercise designed to demonstrate and evaluate the district's Emergency Operations Center field response and recovery activities in the event of a catastrophic hurricane affecting South Florida.

Trained District staff practiced emergency management and flood-control procedures by responding to "Hurricane Freddy," a simulated catastrophic Category 5 hurricane that impacted South Florida.

The exercise will assess the district's ability to respond to numerous hurricane-related incidents and demands on the flood-control system.

NYC OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (OEM) CONDUCTS HURRICANE DRILL

Regional Hurricane Preparedness Exercise Features Deployment of Emergency Supply Stockpile and Shelter Setup

The New York City Office of Emergency Management (OEM) Commissioner today announced the successful completion of HURREX 2008, a multi-agency field exercise to test the deployment of the City’s emergency supply stockpile and the setup of shelters.

During the two-day exercise, held on May 31st and June 1st, 24 pallets from the City’s emergency stockpile were delivered to IS 187 in Brooklyn, where more than 100 staff members from City agencies, the American Red Cross (ARC) and OEM’s Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) set up a shelter capable of providing housing and essential supplies for up to 500 people for four days. The supplies included cots, blankets, hygiene and medical kits, baby food and diapers, pet supplies and bottled water. In addition to setting up the shelter, staff members received training in five areas of shelter management: Evacuation Center Operations, Solar System Operations, Hurricane Shelter Administration, Hurricane Shelter Operations and Evacuation Center Administration/Hurricane Shelter Logistics.

“New York City has one of the most robust coastal storm plans in the country and this weekend we put yet another component of our plan to the test,” said OEM Commissioner Joseph Bruno. “Drills like HURREX help ensure the City is ready if we ever have to face the real thing.”

In a major coastal storm, such as a category 3 or 4 hurricane, as many as 2.3 million people would need to evacuate coastal areas and up to 600,000 people would require temporary shelter. To meet those needs OEM has developed a comprehensive Coastal Storm Plan that includes detailed procedures for evacuating and sheltering residents. The City’s shelter system consists of 65 evacuation centers and up to 509 hurricane shelters, including eight special medical needs shelters. To supply and staff the shelter system, OEM maintains an emergency stockpile of essential supplies and a database of nearly 25,000 City employees who would be called upon to manage evacuation centers and emergency shelters.

City officials will evaluate the exercise and study the response and decisions made by the participants for future training in New York City and in other jurisdictions. HURREX was funded by SEMO and a contribution from American International Group, Inc. (AIG).

“As an insurance company with a clear understanding of the importance of emergency preparedness and risk mitigation, AIG is proud to support the New York City Office of Emergency Management’s HURREX coastal storm exercise,” said Ned Cloonan, AIG Vice President for International & Corporate Affairs. “We value our relationship with OEM and look forward to continuing to work with them as they test and refine New York City’s preparedness plans and emergency response protocols.”

Hurricane Season in the United States begins June 1 and ends November 30. HURREX took place on the final day of National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2008, which ran from May 25 through May 31.

HURREX 2008 is part of the City's continuing efforts to test and refine its Coastal Storm Plan. The exercise was designed specifically to test the deployment of supplies from the City’s emergency stockpile and staff from the city’s volunteer database, and to set up a simulated emergency shelter.

In 2006, OEM held three drills that focused on other aspects of the Coastal Storm Plan. In October 2006, more than 800 evacuees were evaluated and transported from an evacuation center to two shelter locations. In June 2006, OEM held a tabletop exercise involving more than 60 City, state and federal agencies, non-profit organizations and private sector partners that traced the movement of a hurricane from its initial development to the decision to evacuate portions of the city. And, in a second tabletop exercise held in July 2006, players focused on the evacuation of special needs populations from healthcare facilities.

Agencies that participated in HURREX include:

* American Red Cross in Greater NY
* NYC Administration for Children’s Services
* NYC Community Emergency Response Teams
* NYC Department for the Aging
* NYC Department for Citywide Administrative Services
* NYC Department of Education
* NYC Department of Environmental Protection
* NYC Department of Finance
* NYC Department of Homeless Services
* NYC Department of Information Technology and Telecommunications
* NYC Department of Parks and Recreation
* NYC Department of Housing Preservation and Development
* NYC Fire Department
* NYC Housing Authority
* NYC Human Resource Administration
* NYC Law Department
* NYC Mayor’s Office
* NYC Office of Emergency Management
* NYC Police Department

In addition to the HURREX shelter exercise, the City of New York is participating in a first-of-its-kind regional exercise hosted by the New York State Emergency Management Office (SEMO). SEMO’s Empire Express Hurricane Exercise will activate state and local coastal storm plans in preparation for a direct hit by a simulated hurricane and will focus on three critical components of New York’s hurricane response: Emergency Operations Center (EOC) coordination, local operations and healthcare facility evacuations.

The regional exercise kicked off Friday, May 31, 2008 with a call between OEM, SEMO, the National Weather Service and Nassau Suffolk and Westchester counties. Over the weekend, OEM participated in calls with the Regional Evacuation Liaison Team (RELT), a group of city and county executives that would ensure a coordinated regional evacuation during a major hurricane. Today, the exercise continued with a simulated activation of OEM’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC). The activation simulated the decision making and information gathering activities that would be taking place if a Category 2 hurricane was approaching New York City. With the simulated hurricane scheduled to make landfall Tuesday at 8 pm, players worked to establish a timeline for the evacuation of healthcare and nursing home facilities and a timeline for evacuating the general population from areas that would be impacted by storm surge. Throughout the exercise, OEM will simulate the activities that would occur in an actual event. On Wednesday, the exercise will focus on regional recovery efforts. The SEMO exercise concludes in Albany on Thursday with a meeting where participants will examine the decisions made during the exercise and assess the effectiveness of the regions costal storm plans.

CONTACT: Andrew Troisi / Chris Gilbride (718) 422-4888

Safety tips can prevent disaster when tornadoes hit

Recently Greeley and Weld County experienced one of nature's most violent storms, a tornado. Some tornadoes are clearly visible, while rain or nearby low-hanging clouds obscure others. Occasionally, tornadoes develop so rapidly that little, if any, advance warning is possible. The City of Greeley and Union Colony Fire Rescue's Office of Emergency Management are currently in the process of exploring options for a tornado advanced warning and mass notification system. These options include sirens/public address systems, text messaging to cell phones and e-mail alerts. In the absence of such a system being in place, there are things residents can do to be prepared for another one of these devastating events.

One of the best ways to keep yourself appraised and imminent dangerous weather is to Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or to commercial radio or television newscasts for the latest information. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, is the federal agency that monitors weather world wide and issues regular "watches" and "warnings" on dangerous weather in specific locations. A "weather" radio can be purchased at various local retail stores that is designed to specifically receive these "watches" and "warnings" in the radio users specific geographic vicinity.

So, what's the difference between a "watch" and a "warning"? A tornado watch means tornadoes are possible. Remain alert for approaching storms. Watch the sky and stay tuned to a NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio, or television for information. A tornado warning means a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar. Take shelter immediately.

Should you find yourself in the path of an approaching tornado, remember the following:

If in a structure (e.g. residence, small building, school, nursing home, hospital, factory, shopping center, high-rise building)--Go to a pre-designated shelter area such as a safe room, basement, storm cellar, or the lowest building level. If there is no basement, go to the center of an interior room on the lowest level (closet, interior hallway) away from corners, windows, doors, and outside walls. Put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. Get under a sturdy table and use your arms to protect your head and neck. Do not open windows.

If in a vehicle, trailer, or mobile home--Get out immediately and go to the lowest floor of a sturdy, nearby building or a storm shelter. Mobile homes, even if tied down, offer little protection from tornadoes

If outside with no shelter, lie flat in a nearby ditch or depression and cover your head with your hands. Be aware of the potential for flooding. Do not get under an overpass or bridge. You are safer in a low, flat location. Never try to outrun a tornado in urban or congested areas in a car or truck. Instead, leave the vehicle immediately for safe shelter.

Watch out for flying debris. Flying debris from tornadoes causes most fatalities and injuries.

There is little, if anything that can be done to totally eliminate property damage from one of these violent storms. However, with planning, preparation, and awareness, there is much that can be done to minimize injuries to citizens and even save lives.

Dale Lyman, CFPS, is division chief and fire marshal for the Union Colony Fire Rescue Authority in Greeley.

Never try and out run a supercell.....



MARITIME NOTE

Probers told: 2 of ship’s ballast tanks empty

MANILA, Philippines—The MV Princess of the Stars may have been unstable when it sailed, thus dooming it to sink and capsize after being battered by big waves, a member of the Board of Marine Inquiry (BMI) theorized Thursday.

The statements were aired by Commodore Amado Romillo, a representative of the private sector, at the ongoing investigation of the sinking.

According to Romillo, two of the four ballast tanks were empty, and two were filled. “It’s very obvious the ship sailed without the proper quantity of ballast,” he said.

Romillo’s testimony did not sit well with Sulpicio Lines Inc. lawyer Arthur Lim, who appealed to the BMI to suspend the announcement of its “tentative, individual findings.”

Lim said the company did not want to foster an environment that would encourage the clamor for the government to take over the shipping company.

The BMI chair, Rear Adm. Ramon Liwag, assured Lim that the board would conduct its investigation fairly.

Romillo questioned the stability of the Princess of the Stars after noting that data submitted by the company to the board showed that the ship was not holding the full ballast tanks that he said were supposed to serve as its permanent ballast.

Ballast tanks are used to stabilize the ship and are filled with or emptied of water as needed.

Romillo also cited “lapses in the management” of the Princess of the Stars.

He said the ship had only one form of communication—the single sideband radio—with the ports, and that there were certain hours when no one was manning the radio communication.

Thus, he said, the ship was unable to receive an important weather bulletin at 10 p.m. on June 20, the day it set sail.

Center of gravity

The Princess of the Stars sank at the height of Typhoon “Frank” (international codename: Fengshen) off Sibuyan Island in Romblon province on June 21. It was en route to Cebu from Manila and was carrying more than 800 people and a cargo of the pesticide endosulfan on board. Only 57 survivors have been found.

Benjamin Eugenio, the port captain of Sulpicio Lines in Manila, said some ballast tanks had to be emptied to accommodate the cargo and ensure the ship’s stability.

But Romillo said the ballast was needed for continued stability, regardless of the cargo on board.

“If they discharge ballast in place of cargo, you change the center of gravity... Then you can’t consider the vessel stable. Thereby, you are risking the lives of passengers,” Romillo said.

Eugenio replied that selected tanks were full, but added that he did not have all the data about the ballast tanks with him. He assured the BMI that the data would be submitted soon.

Dead in the water

Romillo, who showed Eugenio the pictures of the upturned ship published in the Philippine Daily Inquirer (parent company of INQUIRER.net) and cited a Philippine Coast Guard report to him, said the vessel was dead in the water and was drifting after it capsized.

The pictures showed a portion of the ship’s bow protruding from the sea off Sibuyan.

Romillo also said it was buoyancy that kept a ship afloat, and this buoyancy could have been caused by the air in the empty ballast tanks.

“A ship will sink if there is continued ingress of water. But if there’s enough air left on board, that will keep the ship afloat even though she capsized,” Romillo said.

He said this could mean that the ballast tanks of the ship were empty when it sailed.

“What’s keeping her afloat is her empty ballast tanks. The reason the stern is lower is the cargo,” he said.

According to Romillo, the ballast should be calculated while the ship is at port, and not while at sea because such practice would be dangerous.

He said that because of the high center of gravity of the cargo, it appeared there was not enough weight down below, causing the ship to list when it was hit by strong waves.

If the ship had more weight below, it could have righted itself when hit by the waves, he said.

Rhetorical observation

But Lim objected to the airing of Romillo’s views.

He also countered Romillo’s statements, saying: “Maybe the vessel is afloat because it is resting on something, not because it is floating.”

He asked the BMI to suspend judgment on the ballast tanks and the ship’s stability given the government’s decision to refloat it.

“It’s purely speculative even when backed by scientific theory,” Lim said. “I don’t think it will be fair to make conclusions that certain things were done or not done.”

He also asked the BMI to consider that the ship “went right smack in the eye of the typhoon,” and that the tragedy was “very extraordinary.”

Lim pointed out that there was talk about the government’s takeover of Sulpicio Lines, and said he did not want Romillo’s views to coerce the public into thinking that the idea should be carried out.

He said Romillo’s statements about the ship were a “rhetorical observation.”

“So if the media will pick that up, everybody in the country will be agitating for the closure of Sulpicio. I don’t believe the board should be the instrument of a sinister plan anyone might have,” he said.

No knowledge of guidelines …

A crucial circular on the movement of vessels during heavy weather was one of the highlights of Thursday’s hearing, with Sulpicio Lines insisting that it had not seen the updated version of the guidelines issued by the Coast Guard.

Manila port captain Eugenio repeatedly told the BMI that he had “no knowledge” of the guidelines discussing the conditions during which a vessel could leave port during bad weather, and whose responsibility it was.

Only Signal No. 1 was raised in Manila when Princess of the Stars was allowed to leave port of Manila on June 20.

“Dapat alam ninyo bakit pinapaalis ang barko o hindi pinapaalis (You should know why a ship is allowed to leave or not),” Rear Adm. Benjamin Mata, the BMI vice chair, told Eugenio.

According to Eugenio, the Coast Guard is the “last authority” in allowing ships to sail during typhoons, as it approves the Master’s Oath for Safety Departure (MOSD) signed by the ship captain.

But according to the BMI, the Coast Guard merely “accepts” the MOSD and checks for violations.

...Or of 2007 circular

Sulpicio Lines lawyer Lim said he was aware of the previous circulars issued in 1996 and 1998 but did not know of the most recent issued last year.

Edgar Go, Sulpicio Lines vice president, likewise denied seeing the circular.

But the board pointed out that ship operators like Sulpicio Lines should have had a copy of such an important document.

Coast Guard safety officer Teotimo Borja said the latest version of the circular was discussed at a meeting attended by shipowners.

No toxic cargo

Erwin Balagas, the relieved Coast Guard station commander, quoted the ship’s captain as saying in the MOSD that the vessel was not carrying toxic cargo, when it actually held a 10,000-kilo cargo of endosulfan.

Sulpicio Lines has denied knowing that the cargo owned by Del Monte Philippines Inc. contained endosulfan.

Balagas added that the boarding team found no violations in the ship based on the MOSD, like having less than half of its passenger capacity of 1,992.

He said the 23,000-ton ship was allowed to sail based on Coast Guard guidelines allowing vessels of such weight to proceed to its destination even if Signal No. 2 had been raised.

In a separate interview, Engineer Nelson P. Ramirez, president of the United Filipino Seafarers, said it was also possible that the cargoes on board the vessel were not properly secured, causing them to be dislodged when big waves hit the ship.

Cir., June 30, 2008).

From Holland & Knight

Australia – online registration of distress beacons

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) issued a media release stating that it inaugurated a website for online registration of 406 MHz distress beacons. When the AMSA receives a distress alert from a registered beacon, it can more quickly determine if the activation is a real distress situation or an inadvertent activation. In addition, the Rescue Coordination Center (RCC) can task the most suitable assets for the rescue response. (7/3/08).

Passenger Vessel Emergency Alarms Advisory Committee – meeting

The Passenger Vessel Emergency Alarms Advisory Committee, sponsored by the Architectural and Transportation Barriers Compliance Board (Access Board), will meet in Washington, DC on August 12 and 13. 73 Fed. Reg. 38353 (July 7, 2008).

IMO – SOLAS amendments enter into force

The IMO issued a news release stating that amendments to the SOLAS Convention to strengthen the fire protection arrangements on cabin balconies on passenger ships entered into force on 1 July 2008, along with other SOLAS amendments relating to the prevention of accidents involving lifeboats and protective coatings on ships. (7/2/08).

Senate hearing on maritime treaties

On Thursday, June 10, the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations will meet to consider various treaties. Among those to be considered are the International Convention on the Control of Harmful Anti-Fouling Systems on Ships and the 1996 Protocol to the Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter. (7/8/08).

USCG IN ACTION!

USCG BTS Michigan City, Indiana intercepts a recreational boater who crossed over the beaches swimming zone and warning (NO BOATS) buoys between Porter Beach and Dunes State Park in Indiana..... Big NONO!

HAVE A REALLY GREAT WEEKEND!

RS

New Wind Measurement Technology May Help Olympic Sailing, Aviation and Weather Forecasting

New Wind Measurement Technology May Help Olympic Sailing, Aviation and Weather Forecasting

ScienceDaily (July 3, 2008) — A team of researchers at the Ocean University of China has developed and tested a mobile lidar (light detection and ranging) station that can accurately measure wind speed and direction over large areas in real time -- an application useful for aviation safety, weather forecasting and sports.

The mobile lidar station can measure wind fields more accurately, which could help world-class athletes compete in international competitions, such as the Olympics. Ocean University is in Qingdao, which is hosting the sailing competitions of the XXIX Olympic Games and the Beijing 2008 Paralympic Games, and this technique is being tested in conjunction with the event.

"Wind is non-uniform even in a small sailing field," says Professor Zhi-Shen Liu of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Remote Sensing, Ministry of Education of China, Ocean University of China, who led the research. "Athletes could maximize their performances if they have the most accurate information to help them capture the wind."

In Olympic sailing, individual competitors or teams of athletes sail various classes of sailboats in timed trials over a single course. The contest requires them to navigate upwind, downwind and everything in between. Their final time depends on numerous factors, including the boat design, the skill of the sailors, course difficulty and ocean currents. Perhaps the most important factor, though, is how well the athletes can harness the wind that fills their sails.

Because wind constantly changes speed and direction, athletes and coaches hope to have the best information at the start of a run. On cloudy, rainy days, the standard meteorological tool of Doppler radar can accurately provide wind field information. When no clouds are present, however, Doppler radar is ineffective. The best wind data on clear days comes from ocean buoys and land stations that use wind cups and ultrasonic anemometers to measure wind speed.

In the Qingdao sailing area, where this summer's competitions will take place, only four buoys, one boat and one tower are available to measure sea surface winds within a competition area of approximately 10 square kilometers.

Liu and his lidar group, composed of research scientists and graduate students, have been working with an optical remote sensing technology called Doppler lidar, which they are applying for weather and environmental research. Lidar works by scattering laser beams off atmospheric aerosols or molecules. Doppler lidar takes advantage of the fact that when these aerosols or molecules are moving in the wind, the scattered laser light changes frequency -- the same way an approaching car has a higher pitched sound than a car driving away.

The advantage of Doppler lidar, says Liu, is that it can quickly sample a large area, providing a much finer map of winds than buoys alone. He and his group have developed a lidar bus, which can move equipment to the experiment field conveniently.

Last year, they successfully tested their new bus at the 2007 Qingdao International Regatta sailing event. They moved the bus to the seashore near the sailing field, and made a horizontal scan over the sea surface, making the measurement in real time and then uploading the data to the local meteorological station every 10 minutes. They envision a similar effort in the upcoming Olympic and Paralympic games.

The research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Key Laboratory of Ocean Remote Sensing, the Ministry of Education of China and the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).

WEATHER NOTE

U.S. Department of Labor Giving $17 Million to Iowa to Aid Recovery From Flooding and Tornadoes

WASHINGTON, June 18 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The U.S. Department of Labor today announced a $17,127,000 grant to create approximately 600 temporary jobs for eligible dislocated workers in Iowa to assist in the cleanup and recovery resulting from damage caused by recent flooding and tornadoes.

"Our hearts go out to Iowans who are suffering from the ongoing flooding and who were victims of the recent tornadoes, including last week's tragic loss of life at a Boy Scout camp," said Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao. "This $17 million grant will pay for temporary jobs to aid in the cleanup and recovery from these natural disasters and will provide humanitarian assistance to Iowans in need."

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has declared multiple counties across Iowa as eligible for its Public Assistance Program.

The grant, awarded to the Iowa Workforce Development agency, will provide funding to create temporary jobs to assist in cleanup, demolition, repair, renovation and reconstruction of destroyed public structures, facilities and lands within the affected communities. Funds will also be used for projects that provide food, clothing, shelter, and other types of humanitarian assistance for disaster victims, including work on the homes of individuals who are eligible for the federally funded weatherization program.

Of the total announced today, $6,000,000 will be released initially, with the balance expected to be released on or around June 30.

National Emergency Grants are part of the secretary of labor's discretionary fund and are awarded based on a state's ability to meet specific guidelines. For more information on National Emergency Grants, visit www.doleta.gov/NEG.

U.S. Department of Labor releases are accessible on the Internet at www.dol.gov. The information in this news release will be made available in alternate format (large print, Braille, audio tape or disc) from the COAST office upon request. Please specify which news release when placing your request at 202-693-7828 or TTY 202-693-7755. The Labor Department is committed to providing America's employers and employees with easy access to understandable information on how to comply with its laws and regulations. For more information, please visit www.dol.gov/compliance.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Volunteer Agencies Play Key Role In Wisconsin Disaster Recovery

Release Date: June 28, 2008
Release Number: 1768-036

» More Information on Wisconsin Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding

MADISON, Wis. -- Wisconsin residents who suffered losses from the recent severe storms, tornadoes and flooding and continue to have unmet needs may seek help through a number of volunteer groups.

"We would like to encourage Wisconsin residents to take advantage of our 2-1-1 Program when looking for additional assistance," said Wisconsin Emergency Management (WEM) Administrator Johnnie Smith. "It's a valuable resource that unites those who want to help with those who most need assistance."

Residents can dial 2-1-1 on their telephones to obtain information on local volunteer agencies working in their county. The 2-1-1 operators have phone numbers, program and services information, locations, hours of operation and other relevant resources. Those who call 2-1-1 may be referred to resources including housing assistance, counseling services, employment opportunities and health services.

"The volunteer groups are vital elements in all state and federal recovery efforts as they focus on helping families develop effective recovery plans," said Federal Coordinating Officer Dolph Diemont of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). As federal coordinating officer, Diemont directs the federal side of the federal/state disaster response and recovery efforts in Wisconsin.

Anyone affected by the recent storms and flooding should register with FEMA by calling 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or TTY 1-800-462-7585. Wisconsin residents can also register online at www.fema.gov/.

For individuals seeking more information and/or possible participation, here are two volunteer groups currently working in Wisconsin:

Salvation Army
1-800-264-6412 / www.salvationarmywi.org

American Red Cross
1-866-GET-INFO (1-866-438-4636) / www.redcross.org

FEMA coordinates the federal government's role in preparing for, preventing, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all domestic disasters, whether natural or man-made, including acts of terror.

MARITIME NOTE

HOT FROM gCAPTAIN.....

This is a problem for all blue water mariners. My contacts tell me that this downgrade is due to special interest such as "private weather services" who want NOAA out of the business of supplying public "open source" weather data. It looks like someone is lobbying someone on the Hill or at NOAA for these changes...

All mariners need to take notice and write david.feit@noaa.gov and let him know that we need this "public service" unchanged!

NOAA To Make Surface Chart Cutback

July 8th, 2008

NOAA Surface Chart Notice" height="320" width="501">

The above shows a notice box on NOAA’s current 24hr Surface Prediction Chart which can be found HERE. It states:

On 08/15/08 the limits of this chart will change to 24N-48N, 48W-101W. Send comments to David.Feit@noaa.gov by 07/15/08

Notice on the live version of this chart Hurricane Bertha and the area of low pressure to her Northeast are both outside the proposed limits! Here at gCaptain we consider this a degradation of service not a simple adjustment of scale and are supprised by this move from an otherwise rational government organization. It is our opinion that the boundries of this chart should instead be increased to cover the entire North Atlantic which would bring it inline with NOAA’s 48 and 96 hour prediction charts (view all charts HERE)!

Please leave your comments regarding this change bleow and we will be sure they get fowarded on to Mr. Feit and our contacts at NOAA. READ>

USCG Safety Alert: Controllable Pitch Propeller Systems and Situational Awareness

Coast Guard strongly recommends that owners, operators, and masters of vessels with controllable pitch propellers understand the design and operation of the system after marine casualty in March of 2008 involving a fishing vessel in the Bering Sea resulted in multiple fatalities and complete loss of the vessel.

July 2, 2008 (Washington, DC): A marine casualty in March of 2008 involving a fishing vessel in the Bering Sea resulted in multiple fatalities and complete loss of the vessel. A Marine Board of Investigation is currently examining the various circumstances surrounding the casualty. Although the investigation is not complete, safety issues associated with casualty have been identified that merit immediate public dissemination.

Based on the survivors' testimony, the crew experienced difficulty with launching and entering the three liferafts because the vessel was making considerable sternway when the order to abandon ship was issued. Evidence indicates the main engines were still running and the vessel was backing with significant astern pitch. Consequently, two of the liferafts quickly traveled forward past the bow of the vessel when they were launched. Attempts to retrieve the liferafts using the painter lines were unsuccessful. As a result, the majority of the crew members were forced to jump into the 34°F water and attempt to swim to the liferafts. Ultimately, only 22 members of the vessel's crew made it into the liferafts. All of these crew members survived. Of the other 25 crew members who never made it into a liferaft, four died and one remains missing.

The Coast Guard strongly recommends that owners, operators, and masters of vessels with controllable pitch propellers understand the design and operation of the system. This includes the primary and emergency sources of power for both the control and main systems, the location and procedures for using alternate control stations, and the locations of the emergency shutdowns. While controllable pitch propeller systems are generally designed and constructed to fail in the "as is" position, in hydraulic CPP systems, the actual blade pitch may change. In this case the vessel was making considerable sternway. This was not a unique occurrence. The MS EXPLORER also experienced this problem before it sank in November of 2007. Vessel operators, masters and crew members must be prepared to respond accordingly.

In light of this incident, vessel owners, operators, masters and crew members should also be mindful of the following safety issues:

1. Vessel masters and officers must maintain situational awareness at all times and understand the effects of their actions and decisions on the safety of their crew, especially during emergency situations involving flooding. This includes understanding what impact the vessel's speed, heading, heel, and trim will have on the crew as it abandons ship.

2. The master or individual in charge must evaluate the particular circumstances of each emergency situation (weather, seas, experience of crew, condition of vessel, etc.) and adjust emergency procedures accordingly to provide for the safety of his crew, vessel, and the environment.

3. All crew members should understand that immersion suits will affect their dexterity, limit mobility, and may make it more difficult to launch survival craft, particularly when the survival craft are covered with snow or ice. Crew members responsible for launching the survival craft should practice and be able to do so with their immersion suits on. Lifesaving gear should be kept free of ice and snow whenever possible.

4. When abandoning ship, crewmembers should make every effort to enter directly into a liferaft or lifeboat before entering the water. If crewmembers must enter the water, they should stay together and attempt to enter a liferaft, climb onto floating debris, or use any other means available to get themselves out of the water as soon as possible.

5. Emergency Drills should not be limited to routine procedures such as donning immersion suits. Emergency drills should ensure all crew members, including bridge and engine room personnel, understand and practice what to do in various emergency situations under actual conditions.

Additional information regarding emergency procedures for Commercial Fishing Vessels can be found at: http://www.fishsafe.info.

This safety alert is provided for informational purpose only and does not relieve any domestic or international safety, operational or material requirement. Developed and distributed by the Office of Investigations and Analysis, United States Coast Guard Headquarters, Washington, DC.

RS

Hurricane Center says better forecasts could cost millions

Hurricane Center says better forecasts could cost millions

MIAMI (AP) — Substantially improving the accuracy of hurricane intensity predictions could take years and tens of millions of dollars, the National Hurricane Center's director said Tuesday.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Bill Read said reducing by half the errors made in tasks such as determining whether a storm would remain a Category 1 or grow stronger would be a costly and long-term effort.

Predicting a storm's intensity is much harder for meteorologists than estimating where it will go. Since 1990, forecasters have reduced by more than half their errors in predicting a storm's path, but over the same time the accuracy of their intensity forecasts has remained virtually unchanged.

"To really get after that you're talking tens of millions of dollars, if not more, to reach an ambitious goal," Read said. "We've made a steady gain in the improvement of the track forecasts, and we haven't figured out how to do that yet for rapid intensification."

That could take between five and 10 years, he said.

Read said he's satisfied for now with the $3 million the government is spending this year for research into improving intensity forecasts. Long-term improvement, however, would require a sustained investment.

Read took the helm of the National Hurricane Center in January. The six-month Atlantic hurricane season which officially began June 1 is his first as director. The center monitors the movement and strength of tropical weather systems and issues storm watches and warnings for the U.S. and surrounding areas.

Read said he expects to spend a lot of time talking about preparing for storms, as other directors have. He said it's denial, not complacency, that keeps many people from being prepared. They just don't think a storm will hit, and that's what emergency managers and others have to overcome, he said.

Read also talked about the sensitive issue of a suggested link between global warming and hurricanes, acknowledging it carries "so much emotional baggage" it can be "really hard to sift out the science."

Read said he agreed with others at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and that the link between global warming and hurricanes "is still to be determined." While people who model climate largely believe "global warming is real and it's going to get worse," Read said, there is much more disagreement about the effect of warming on tropical storms and whether the number and intensity of storms will be affected.

"All of that comes out as different numbers. I think there are a lot of unresolved issues in the science," Read said.

WEATHER NOTE

Hurricane shelter lacks in Lee County, officials say

• Click here to download the 2008 Hurricane Guide

By MARY WOZNIAK
mwozniak@news-press.com

Lee County is far short of the hurricane shelter space it needs to house residents at risk during a Category 3 hurricane and the problem will not be remedied anytime soon because of cost, county officials say.

County statistics show hurricane shelters are 47,000 spaces short of what the county needs to protect residents in a Category 3 storm, said John Wilson, Lee County director of public safety. A Category 3 storm packs winds of 111 to 130 mph, with storm surge — a continual rise of water that is pushed ashore — generally 9 to 12 feet above normal.

Besides a lack of money to retrofit existing buildings as shelters, there is a lack of places to turn into shelters that are outside of the county’s storm surge area, Wilson said.

The deficiency is even worse in the case of a severe Category 4 or 5 hurricane smashing into Lee County, a state evaluation of county hurricane shelters shows. A Category 4 storm has winds of 131 to 155 mph and surge generally 13 to 18 feet above normal; Category 5 is winds greater than 155 mph and surge generally greater than 18 feet above normal.

The county lacks 96,779 spaces and is 1.8 million square feet short of what it needs in those severe storms, the 2008 study by the state Division of Emergency Management concludes.

But even if the county is already lacking in space at the Category 3 level, there is no way the county can meet the state’s higher standard, Wilson said.

“We can’t afford the state standard,” Wilson said. “It’s just not a realistic standard.”

The Category 3 standard has proved to be adequate, Wilson said. Is it reasonable to spend money to address the shelter deficit at a Category 4 or 5 need, “or is it more reasonable to look at the storm situation that will most likely occur?” he asked.

A Category 3 is more likely than a Category 4 or 5, as defined by storm surge models, Wilson said.

Charley, a Category 4 hurricane, clobbered Lee and Charlotte counties on Aug. 13, 2004. But the county’s Category 3 shelter standard was sufficient because the storm surge expected with Charley did not materialize, Wilson said.

The state’s regulations are mandated by law for shelters that received designation since 1995, said Blair Heusdens, a spokeswoman for the Division of Emergency Management.

But the regulations can be waived under unique circumstances if a county requests it and the state agrees, she said in e-mails responding to questions.

Lee County was granted such a waiver in the early 1990s, Wilson said.

“We have a high area at risk. We have very little interior area to support us. We have high evacuation times,” Wilson said.

Little infrastructure is available inland to turn into hurricane shelters and much of the space is in the Density Reduction/Groundwater Resource area in southeast Lee County, a natural storage area for the county’s water supply.

“The state recognizes that Lee County faces unique challenges in sheltering because of the geography and population of the county,” Heusdens wrote. Local officials will use the best options they can find to meet residents’ needs, she wrote.

In this case, it’s the best cost option.

Wilson said it costs $250 to $285 per square foot to retrofit a building just to meet Category 3 standards.

Using the minimum $250 number and multiplying it by the 1.8 million square feet the state says Lee County is deficient, the county would have to ante up $471 million to meet the need. And that’s in a struggling economy.

“It’s an impressive number,” Wilson said. “Is it appropriate to shoot for and use taxpayers’ money?”

In the meantime, the county has earmarked $1 million for hurricane shelters in the 2007-2008 capital improvement plan. The largest amount the county has spent for shelters in the four years since Hurricane Charley is $3 million in 2006-2007.

“I’m surprised it’s that much because of the property tax,” Lee County Commissioner Bob Janes said of the $1 million figure. “The tax income really constrains us from doing a lot of that stuff. It’s just a problem, but it’s terribly difficult to find a way to eliminate it.”

The county has been working with area schools to retrofit them as shelters, Janes said. “But when you live in the flood plain, it’s terribly difficult to find buildings. If you just build a building for a hurricane shelter, what are you going to use it for the rest of the time?”

The county uses the same square footage as the state does to calculate the amount
of space needed to house a person in a hurricane shelter — 20 square feet.

“So far we have been able to shelter anyone who needed a place,” Wilson said.

“Whether we can do that in the future, we don’t know.”

As the county tries to catch up in providing space, the population keeps increasing, he said.

The lack of space is worrisome, as is the fact that the vast majority of people don’t use existing shelters, said John Cain, disaster coordinator for the Lee County Chapter of the American Red Cross.

“I don’t know how to balance that,” Cain said. “We’ll always be there, the Red Cross, to help out before, during and after, but certainly if people are not offered sufficient shelter it’s a big concern.”

The county’s current goal is to provide enough shelters in a Category 3 hurricane for 21 percent of the population at risk, Wilson said. That is the number of residents who say they would evacuate to a shelter in a hurricane, according to a 1990s study.

“We are hard-pressed to meet the standards at 21 percent,” Wilson said.

The county is considering dropping that number to 10 percent in a revision of the county’s comprehensive plan, while at the same time raising the category standard from 3 to 5, Wilson said. The 10 percent is the number of people who actually used shelters during hurricanes Charley and Wilma, he said.

That plan revision would be subject to public hearings, probably in the fall, he said.
But a new summary of a study of public response to Hurricane Wilma shows that many people may have not heard officials’ orders to evacuate and they remain in the dark about the damage a severe hurricane can cause.

In Wilma:
• Only 7 percent of those who evacuated went to a public shelter.

• Those who didn’t evacuate based their decision on the severity of the storm or its track, given their home’s location, and the absence of advice or orders from public officials.

• Only half the residents in mobile homes thought their homes would flood in a Category 4 hurricane.

“It is a question of what can a taxpayer afford to spend for safety,” Wilson said. “We made the decision. Is it a good one?

UK Chasers have a near miss!




MARINE NOTE

‘BAD FOR BUSINESS’ : Shipowners buck new sailing guidelines during storms

The Philippine Coast Guard’s new, more stringent guidelines for ships sailing during storms could be tested soon if the prevailing tropical depression turns into a typhoon.

Ship owners and operators, however, have voiced their opposition to the rules, claiming these would be detrimental to passengers and business.

The interim guidelines prohibit a vessel from leaving port when Storm Signal No. 1 has been raised at its port of origin, along its route or at its port of destination.

The interim rules were issued after the sinking of the MV Princess of the Stars off Sibuyan Island in Romblon province at the height of Typhoon “Frank” (international codename: Fengshen) on June 21 while the ship was en route to Cebu with over 800 passengers and crew on board.

Passengers still missing

Majority of the passengers remain missing and are presumed to have gone down with the ship owned by Sulpicio Lines. Only 57 persons have survived the ferry sinking.

Yesterday, the PCG reminded ship owners and operators about the new guidelines which go into effect once the weather bureau—the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)—has raised a storm signal.

“If a signal is raised, it would be the first time the guidelines would be tested,” said PCG spokesperson Lt. Commander Armand Balilo.

Balilo said the guidelines would be followed until new ones are issued.

Vessels at sea

Under the guidelines, vessels already at sea must seek shelter immediately when Signal No. 1 is raised in its vicinity, along its intended route or at its destination.

Vessels would only be allowed to leave a port to seek shelter elsewhere if they have no passengers or cargo.

“Responsibility and discretion on how to seek shelter and ensure the safety of the ship is left to the ship owner and master of the vessel,” the PCG said.

But ship owners have contested the new rules, saying they would result in passengers being stranded, businesses suffering delays and income being lost if they were implemented.

Instead, the Philippine Interisland Shipping Association (PISA) proposed the guidelines be modified to leave to the owners’ discretion the decision to allow their vessels to sail when Signal No. 1 has been raised at the port of origin, along the route or destination, and if the probability of the storm signal being raised further was nil.

PISA also proposed the old guidelines be changed to allow vessels with 2,000 gross tons and under to sail and take shelter at Signal No. 2 if it is carrying no passengers but only cargo.

16 to 20 typhoons

PISA said between 16 and 20 typhoons hit the country a year with each lingering three to five days. The new guidelines would mean no ships could sail at least 50, possibly 100, days a year, it said.

It pointed out the shipping industry transports some 47 million passengers and moves 73 million metric tons of cargo a year, numbers that would be adversely affected under the interim guidelines.

Explosion Sinks Boat In Anne Arundel County

EDGEWATER -- A 35-foot boat exploded outside the Selby Bay Yacht Club in Edgewater.

A fire spokesperson said the boat was having mechanical problems and when the boat was put in neutral, it exploded.Elizabeth Spencer of Alexander, Va., was thrown into the water after the explosion and was taken to a nearby hospital. The spokesperson said that her injuries are minor.The boat burned and eventually sunk in 17 feet of water.

RS

When the Levee Breaks: Is the Culprit Rain--Or Overdevelopment?

When the Levee Breaks: Is the Culprit Rain--Or Overdevelopment?

At least 19 levees in Iowa, Illinois and Missouri have failed over the past week after heavy rains, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers—and workers swarmed to shore up others with sandbags to prevent rising waters in the Mississippi and its tributaries from overflowing and washing away surrounding communities, farmland and soil. Engineers blame overdevelopment—and potentially poor maintenance of the levees—for the flooding.

"Whenever you have development, you are going to increase the runoff, increase how much the rivers and streams have to carry," says civil engineer W. Gene Corley, a senior vice president at CTLGroup, an engineering firm that evaluates infrastructure, such as levees. "The other side of that is that if you don't have development, you don't have housing for people or business or manufacturing."

In addition, by paving over previously open space—or farming previously reserved lands—communities in these watersheds contribute to record high waters through increased runoff.

This extra runoff is why waters in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for example, rose to a record 30-plus feet (over nine meters). "The amount of development that has happened in communities up and down the river way creates less opportunity for water to be absorbed back into the earth as opposed to just running off," notes structural engineer Jeffrey Garrett, president and CEO of CTLGroup. "Suddenly, you've got a lot more water that has to flow between the levees."

Efforts to carve a controlled channel for the Missouri, Mississippi and their tributary rivers also contributed to the problem. The reason: the Mississippi now flows through a conduit roughly half the width of its channel that existed before most of the levees were built, which means more water passes faster through a narrower area. "Channeling the river means you are going to have higher crests in the river," Corley notes, that are sometimes higher than the levees built previously to contain them.

Ultimately, levee breaches in places like Gulfport, Ill., help preserve communities farther downriver—by siphoning off some of the raging waters. (When a levee breaks, some water remains and inundates the land behind the breached embankment. This lowered volume reduces the pressure downstream.)

The majority of levees in the Midwest have held so far during the torrential downpours, although those that failed, Corley says, may also have been poorly maintained. But, he adds, "it's too early to tell" the exact reasons the levees failed.

Failure to build strong enough levees—and fix known flaws in them—was blamed for catastrophic flooding in New Orleans, Mississippi and Alabama after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which killed more than 1,800 people and caused more than $81 billion in damage.

WEATHER NOTE

US plans storm warning system for East Africa

By FRANK JORDANS
Associated Press Writer

GENEVA — Cell phone users in East Africa will be able to receive warnings when a storm is brewing thanks to a low-cost alert system U.S. scientists are hoping to set up in the next few years, officials said Tuesday.

The NextStorm system — a computer program that analyzes recent satellite images to predict where thunderstorms are likely to occur in the next hour — should be in place by the end of the decade, said Jacqueline Schafer of USAID told journalists in Geneva.

The U.S. development agency has already set up a similar system set to begin operating this summer in Central America together with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and local partners.

Local officials will use the information to alert the population by radio, television and mobile text message.

The system does not replace longer-term forecasts warning of hurricanes and tropical storms, which can take days to reach full strength.

The weather images cost almost nothing to use, because they are already being gathered routinely by geostationary satellites. The text messages are also especially valuable in developing countries where many people have mobile phones but no fixed-line service.

This makes the alert system comparatively cheap to install compared with the sophisticated weather radars developed countries use.

Exact figures are difficult to come by, but Schafer estimated that the Panama center which covers Central America has so far cost NOAA and USAID about $12 million.

Sometimes even moderate storms can cause millions of dollars in damage that could be reduced if residents get timely warnings to protect their livestock, secure their belongings and go indoors.

The new system in East Africa will also include facilities to map the spread of diseases and other hazards.

So far 14 countries in the region have joined the project, which is being assisted by the Geneva-based Group on Earth Observations, known as GEO.

GEO director Jose Achache said the American system would be compatible with others currently being developed, including one Japan is working on to alert parts of Asia to imminent storms.

Hurricane Chief: Funds, Research Can Improve Hurricane Forecasting

June 26, 2008

The National Hurricane Center's director says his organization would need tens of millions of dollars over the next decade for research to reduce substantially the errors in forecasting the intensity of hurricanes.

In an interview with The Associated Press on June 24, Bill Read said reducing errors by half would be a costly and time-consuming venture.

Intensity forecasts are much harder for meteorologists than predictions of where the hurricane will track.

Read also talked about the sensitive issue of a link between global warming and hurricanes. Read acknowledged that while people who model storms largely suggest global warming is real and going to get worse, they differ on the possible outcomes for hurricanes.

MARITIME NOTE

US Coast Guard responses to false maritime calls cost all parties involved

Friday, 27 June 2008

During the month of June, Coast Guard Sector Lake Michigan units have responded to several calls that were heard on VHF channel 16 by people claiming to be in distress on the water.

On June 1, the Coast Guard responded to a radio call made by a child. The subsequent hour and a half search by a 25-foot small boat from Coast Guard Station Milwaukee and a HH-65 helicopter from Coast Guard Air Facility Waukegan for a supposed mariner in distress cost taxpayers an estimated $14,340.

For more than 210 years, the U.S. Coast Guard has responded to distress calls at sea and in local waterways. Usually the callers are truly in distress. But some of those calls are suspected or found to be false distress calls or hoaxes.

This causes concern because hoax calls hurt in the following ways: The Coast Guard by placing our people in danger by operating ships, boats and aircraft, responding to these false distress calls; the taxpayer by wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars annually; and those truly in distress by interfering with legitimate search-and-rescue cases.

It is a federal felony for anyone to knowingly and wilfully communicates a false distress message to the Coast Guard or causes the Coast Guard to attempt to save lives and property when no help is needed. Penalties include up to six years in prison, $250,000 fine, $5,000 civil penalty, and possible reimbursement to the Coast Guard for costs of the search.

The Coast Guard must remain vigilant and take all distress calls seriously. The maritime environment is too dangerous to do otherwise. The perpetrator of a hoax call is fleecing America and the Coast Guard is working with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and Department of Justice to prosecute and recover costs for the federal government on behalf of the taxpayer.

If you hear a hoax, or you have information that might lead to the perpetrator of a hoax, call the nearest U.S. Coast Guard unit or contact the FCC.

State reimbursed $1.8m for Pasha Bulker salvage

THE NSW Government will be reimbursed $1.8 million for securing and salvaging the Pasha Bulker after the ship ran aground off Newcastle.

Ports and Waterways Minister Joe Tripodi said the amount was negotiated by Newcastle Port Corporation after a claim was lodged with Britannia Steam Ship Insurance Association in October last year.

The $1.8 million covers all the costs incurred by the State Government during the month-long rescue of the 225-metre bulk carrier, which ran aground off Nobbys Beach in wild weather in June last year.

"The rescue effort combined the skills and expertise of a wide range of agencies and personnel," Mr Tripodi said in a statement.

"The insurance claim was lodged in October and Newcastle Port Corporation worked on behalf of all the NSW agencies involved to reach an agreement."

The claim covered costs for labour, equipment hire, security, vessel and helicopter hire and services for response personnel. The settlement includes resources used as a precaution against an oil spill under the Marine Pollution Act.

The Government initially sought $1.95 million, which covered an administration surcharge and the Newcastle Port Corporation equipment.

However, the port corporation accepted the additional surcharge would not be paid as it was not an expense incurred by the State Government.

"This settlement covers the costs incurred by NSW taxpayers attributable to the Pasha Bulker incident. The settlement is a good outcome," Mr Tripodi said.

RS

Extreme Ocean Storms Have Become More Frequent Over Past Three Decades, Study Of Tiny Tremors Shows

Extreme Ocean Storms Have Become More Frequent Over Past Three Decades, Study Of Tiny Tremors Shows

ScienceDaily (Apr. 21, 2008) —Data from faint earth tremors caused by wind-driven ocean waves -- often dismissed as "background noise" at seismographic stations around the world -- suggest extreme ocean storms have become more frequent over the past three decades. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other prominent researchers have predicted that stronger and more frequent storms may occur as a result of global warming trends. The tiny tremors, or microseisms, offer a new way to discover whether these predictions are already coming true, said Richard Aster, a geophysics professor at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology.

Unceasing as the ocean waves that trigger them, the microseisms show up as five- to 30-second oscillations of Earth's surface at seismographic stations around the world. Even seismic monitoring stations "in the middle of a continent are sensitive to the waves crashing all around the continent," Aster said.

As storm winds drive ocean waves higher, the microseism signals increase their amplitude as well, offering a unique way to track storm intensities across seasons, over time, and at different geographical locations. For instance, Aster and colleagues Daniel McNamara from the U.S. Geological Survey and Peter Bromirski of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography recently published analysis in the Seismological Society of America journal Seismological Research Letters showing that microseism data collected around the Pacific Basin and throughout the world could be used to detect and quantify wave activity from multi-year events such as the El Niño and La Niña ocean disruptions.

The findings spurred them to look for a microseism signal that would reveal whether extreme storms were becoming more common in a warming world. In fact, they saw "a remarkable thing," among the worldwide microseism data collected from 1972 to 2008, Aster recalled. In 22 of the 22 stations included in the study, the number of extreme storm events had increased over time, they found.

While the work on evaluating changes in extreme storms is "still very much in its early stages", Aster is "hoping that the study will offer a much more global look" at the effects of climate change on extreme storms and the wind-driven waves that they produce. At the moment, most of the evidence linking the two comes from studies of hurricane intensity and shoreline erosion in specific regions such as the Pacific Northwest Gulf of Mexico, he noted.

The researchers are also working on recovering and digitizing older microseism records, potentially creating a data set that stretches back to the 1930s. Aster praised the work of the long-term observatories that have collected the records, calling them a good example of the "Cinderella science"--unloved and overlooked--that often support significant discoveries.

"It's absolutely great data on the state of the planet. We took a prosaic time series, and found something very interesting in it," he said.

WEATHER NOTE

FEMA plans evacuation exercise in New Orleans

NEW ORLEANS -- State and federal officials have scheduled an evacuation exercise next month in Louisiana as they prepare for the 2008 hurricane season.

The July 9 exercise for Orleans, St. Barnard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles and St. John the Baptist parishes will test the ability of cities and parishes to register and transport people to shelters, according to a news release from the Federal Emergency Management Agency."FEMA is working closely with parish and state officials to provide what they need to evacuate anyone who needs help leaving. We're focusing on the elderly, hospital and nursing home residents and those who have no other transportation available to them," Michael Hall, who's leading FEMA's preparedness activities in Louisiana, said in the release.Mark Cooper, director of Louisiana's Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness office, said the state Department of Transportation and Development has signed contracts for 700 motor coaches to move those who are fleeing an approaching storm like Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the city and the Gulf Coast in 2005.

In addition to the state's bus contract, FEMA recently signed a national contract with AMTRAK to provide passenger trains to help move critical needs residents out of the area when an evacuation is ordered.The July exercise will test bus and rail resources, along with the role the Louis Armstrong International Airport will play.

Geospatial Intelligence and Imagery Aid in Midwest Flood Response

WASHINGTON, D.C. --The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is working with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to support flood response efforts in the Midwest.

NGA is providing analysis, unclassified commercial imagery of flooded areas and geospatial intelligence products to FEMA and emergency responders in the affected areas to aid in rescue and recovery efforts. The products include graphics of major infrastructure, such as the location of airports, hospitals, police and fire stations, emergency operations centers, hazardous material locations, highways and schools.

FEMA, state and local responders use the products to aid in damage assessments, estimate housing needs, position supplies and other resources and coordinate relief efforts. The graphics also provide a common operating picture that helps enable local, state and federal officials work together more effectively and efficiently.

Through the NGA's crisis response portal, the public has access to some of the images, allowing property owners to broadly assess property damage without having to physically visit the area. NGA established its Earth site in 2005 after realizing victims of Hurricane Katrina could use commercial geospatial imagery to check damage to their property along the Gulf Coast.

The NGA Earth site uses the Internet to provide emergency responders and the public a single, easy-to-use entry point for locating timely, relevant, unclassified geospatial information in the event of a disaster or crisis. The NGA Earth site (http://www.nga-earth.org/) is updated as new images are made available. In addition to the images hosted at this location, the site provides links to other federal agency sites and is an access point to leverage other NGA geospatial expertise and products.

NGA's mission is to provide timely, relevant and accurate geospatial intelligence in support of the nation. The term "geospatial intelligence" means the exploitation and analysis of imagery and geospatial information to describe, assess and visually depict physical features and geographically referenced activities on the Earth.

FEMA coordinates the federal government's role in preparing for, preventing, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all domestic disasters, whether natural or man-made, including acts of terror.

MARITIME NOTE

Ship’s insurance limited

THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH CHOICE BUT to take over the salvage operations for the sunken MV Princess of the Stars because the vessel’s insurance coverage is limited to passengers and cargo and does not extend to ship damage, Sen. Manuel Roxas said.

Roxas said the government should act fast to prevent the shipwreck from causing any more damage to the environment because of its dangerous cargo of fuel and pesticide.

It should not wait any more for the shipowner, Sulpicio Lines, to take action, the senator said.

Roxas said that while Sulpicio was not compelled to purchase such insurance under the law because it was mainly a passenger and not a cargo liner, it should have obtained the insurance out of prudence considering its long history of disasters dating back to the sinking of the MV Doña Paz in 1987, considered the worst civilian maritime disaster in history in terms of lives lost (more than 4,000).

The senator said this could be the reason why it was taking Sulpicio such a long time to salvage its sunken ship. He recalled the well-funded salvage operations for the capsized Solar I that caused the Guimaras oil spill in 2006.

“This is one of the regulation loopholes that we hope to plug in the Senate investigation,” said Roxas.

The Oriental Assurance Corp., Sulpicio’s insurer, said the estimated 800 people on board the Princess of the Stars were covered by an accident insurance policy with the firm.

“Yes, passengers of Sulpicio Lines are insured by us, and we guarantee the payment of claims,” said Luz Cotoco, executive vice president of Oriental Assurance.

She said Oriental Assurance was financially healthy and capable of servicing all claims.

Cotoco declined to give the amount of insurance coverage for each passenger, saying Sulpicio Lines has asked that all insurance-related queries be directed to the shipping company.

An industry source said, however, that Oriental Assurance would pay P200,000 per passenger, or a total of about P160 million, to cover the estimated 800 people on board the sunken ship.

The source said Sulpicio Lines also has a P350-million marine hull insurance policy with Oriental Assurance that covers the cost of the ship.

But the owner of a rival shipping firm said that insuring the passengers and the vessel was not enough.

He said Sulpicio should have gotten, aside from accident insurance coverage for its passengers, a protective and indemnity insurance (P&I).

All responsible shipping firms know that getting P&I is absolutely necessary in the shipping business, the source said.

P&I is a form of a third-party liability insurance. It covers the cost of cleaning up possible oil spills and messes resulting from a shipwreck. P&I also covers the cost of the damage when a ship collides with another, or causes damage to other assets.

P&I is like the CTPL [comprehensive third-party liability] for cars, the rival shipowner said.

He said Sulpicio tried but failed to get P&I coverage three years ago, because no insurance company wanted to provide cover, knowing that Sulpicio’s ships were not in perfect condition.

Oriental Assurance said Sulpicio did not have a P&I policy with the firm.

Denis Cabucos, chief of the licensing division of the Insurance Commission, said he knew that Sulpicio has accident insurance coverage for its passengers but was not aware if it had P&I coverage.

Cabucos explained that insurance companies are not required to provide the Insurance Commission with a list of their policy holders.

But he said the commission would act on any insurance-related complaints received by its public assistance division.

Vicente Suazo, administrator of the Maritime Industry Authority, confirmed that Sulpicio did not have P&I insurance. But he said P&I coverage was not required by law.

“What is more important is accident insurance coverage for passengers. That is the one required by law [Republic Act No. 9295],” Suazo said in a phone interview.

He said it was arguable whether P&I was indispensable for shipping companies, but Sulpico Lines did not break the law by not having one.

RS

The 4th of JULY

The Star Spangled Banner

History: In 1814, about a week after the city of Washington had been badly burned, British troops moved up to the primary port at Baltimore Harbor in Maryland. Francis Scott Key visited the British fleet in the Harbor on September 13th to secure the release of Dr. William Beanes who had been captured during the Washington raid. The two were detained on the ship so as not to warn the Americans while the Royal Navy attempted to bombard Fort McHenry. At dawn on the 14th, Key noted that the huge American flag, which now hangs in the Smithsonian's American History Museum, was still waving and had not been removed in defeat. The sight inspired him to write a poem entitled Defense of Fort McHenry; later the poem was set to music that had been previously composed for another song by a Mr. Smith.

The end result was the inspiring song now considered the national anthem of the United States of America. It was accepted as such by public demand for the next century or so, but became even more accepted as the national anthem during the World Series of Baseball in 1917 when it was sung in honor of the brave armed forces fighting in the Great War. The World Series performance moved everyone in attendance, and after that it was repeated for every game. Finally, on March 3, 1931, the American Congress proclaimed it as the national anthem, 116 years after it was first written.

The Star Spangled Banner
By Francis Scott Key

Oh, say can you see by the dawn's early light
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming?
Whose broad stripes and bright stars thru the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.
Oh, say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

On the shore, dimly seen through the mists of the deep,
Where the foe's haughty host in dread silence reposes,
What is that which the breeze, o'er the towering steep,
As it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses?
Now it catches the gleam of the morning's first beam,
In full glory reflected now shines in the stream:
'Tis the star-spangled banner!  Oh long may it wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

And where is that band who so vauntingly swore
That the havoc of war and the battle's confusion,
A home and a country should leave us no more!
Their blood has washed out their foul footsteps' pollution.
No refuge could save the hireling and slave
From the terror of flight, or the gloom of the grave:
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

Oh! thus be it ever, when freemen shall stand
Between their loved home and the war's desolation!
Blest with victory and peace, may the heav'n rescued land
Praise the Power that hath made and preserved us a nation.
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto:  "In God is our trust."
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

ENJOY A VERY SAFE BOATING AND ENJOYABLE LONG WEEKEND!
Robin Storm

New Solar Cycle Not Packing Much Punch

New Solar Cycle Not Packing Much Punch

Many solar scientists expected the new sunspot cycle to be a whopper, a prolonged solar tantrum that could fry satellites and raise hell with earthly communications, the power grid and modern electronics.

But there's scant proof Sunspot Cycle 24 is even here, let alone the debut of big trouble.

So far there have been just a couple minor zits on the face of the sun to suggest the old cycle is over and the new one is coming.

The roughly 11-year cycle of sunspot activity should have bottomed out last year, the end of Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24. That would have put the peak in new sunspot activity around 2012.

But a dud sunspot cycle would not necessarily make it a boring period, especially for two solar scientists with the Tucson-based National Solar Observatory.

Two years ago, William Livingston and Matt Penn wrote a paper for the journal Science predicting that this could not only be a dud sunspot cycle, but the start of another extended down period in solar activity. It was based on their analysis of weakening sunspot intensity and said sunspots might vanish by 2015.

And here's the punch line: That last long-term down period, 1645-1715, coincided with the Little Ice Age, a period of bitter cold winters.

That kind of talk could ruffle some feathers in this time of climate change and global warming, starring man-made carbon dioxide as the devil.

The paper, rejected in peer review, was never published by Science. Livingston said he's OK with the rejection.

"I accept what the reviewers said," Livingston said. "'If you are going to make such statement, you had better have strong evidence.' "

Livingston said their projections were based on observations of a trend in decreasingly powerful sunspots but reviewers felt it was merely a statistical argument.

He is aware that some opponents of the prevailing position that climate change and global warming are the result of manmade activity -- greenhouse gas, specifically carbon dioxide, buildup -- are very much interested in the idea that changes might be related to solar activity.

"But it has not been proven yet," cautioned Livingston, an astronomer emeritus who still works out of an office at the National Optical Astronomy Observatory headquarters building on the University of Arizona campus.

"We may have to wait. We may be wrong. (But) the sun is going to entertain us one way or another," he said.

It's not just a scientific curiosity. There's a lot at stake in predicting whether sunspot cycles are going to be tame or wild, said Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory.

The powerful blasts of radiation that come from solar activity can fry electronic equipment on Earth; particularly vulnerable are satellites.

The high-energy radiation produced by solar flares travels at near the speed of light, getting to Earth in just minutes.

But the magnetic effects of a solar flare can take between two and three days to reach Earth, said Penn, a solar scientist.

In the 1800s, magnetic blasts from intense solar activity induced currents in telegraph lines in the U.S. and Italy, starting fires and damaging equipment. Later, it was learned that solar activity affected radio transmission.

It can also affect the electrical-power grid. A solar tantrum in 1989 blew transformers and caused a blackout in Canada. And a number of satellites are thought to have failed from exposure to high-energy blasts from solar activity.

Satellite operators can turn them away or shut down vulnerable equipment aboard, and astronauts can use shielding to avoid those blasts.

If Cycle 24 is the big cycle predicted, Penn said, "it's likely we'll have geomagnetic storms with a lot of sunspots, a lot of flares on the sun."

Penn said even so-called "quiet sun" periods are far from boring because the sun's "surface consists of Texas-sized hot gas bubbles, which rise upward at a speed of about a mile per second. The gas cools and falls downward in narrower channels at about the same speed. That's what we call the 'quiet sun.'"

"As we get more into the space environment with satellites, GPS and communication satellites, it means money. People who are about to launch new communication satellites really want to know how much shielding to put on their satellites.

"But shielding amounts to weight, which is money. If they want them to last through (an intense cycle), they're going to want to protect them more, and that will cost them more."

Penn is the telescope scientist on the McMath-Pierce solar telescope, the strange angular white thing amid all the white and silver-domed things atop Kitt Peak. Specifically, Penn works with an instrument that "sees" in the infrared range to provide information about magnetic activity.

Sometimes, sunspot activity is more than theory or data to him.

Several years ago, he was making an early-morning run from Tucson up to Kitt Peak to do some solar observing. He noticed his gas gauge was dangerously low and decided to stop for gas at the convenience store in Three Points.

It was about 5 a.m., and no one was there to take cash, so he tried to use his credit card to gas up. But the pay-at-the-pump system was down.

Crossing his fingers and driving up the mountain, Penn said he hoped he'd have enough gas after work to make it back to the station on the way home.

When he got to work, he learned that "a communications satellite had been damaged by (a solar flare). Lots of communications were dropped that morning, and my credit-card pay-at-the-pump attempt was one of them."

Though Aimee Norton appreciates the practical benefits of being able to predict the sun's activity, solving some of the star's mysteries that relate to the big picture are more compelling. Norton is a program scientist on the solar observatory's SOLIS (Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun) facility at Kitt Peak.

"Part of what we're trying to understand is how the magnetic field regulates or moderates the energy that is transported in the atmosphere," Norton said. "Because one of the mysteries of the sun is, it's hotter in the upper atmosphere than (at the surface). So there is energy being transported. Some people think the magnetic field is somehow magically getting that energy out there."

Norton said she's hoping for a powerful cycle, noting, "It would give us more things to do research with -- either that or no cycle at all, which would be similar to the Maunder Minimum."

She said she figures there's little chance of a completely dead cycle but added, "Wouldn't that be fascinating if the solar system managed to offset our contribution?"

Because you can't go

WEATHER NOTE

Seiche Strikes Chicago Lakeshore

For the second time in a month, the Chicago lakeshore has experienced a seiche. The word is Swiss French and means "to sway back and forth." The results can be deadly for waders along beaches of southern Lake Michigan, who can only see this danger as a frequent fluctuation of lakeshore water. Worldwide, there are various reasons for its creation. But for Lake Michigan, it always results from a thunderstorm or line of storms crossing Lake Michigan. Decaying thunderstorm processes will usually result in a strong pressure rise ahead of the decaying storm.

Since water is fluid, this rapid rise in pressure will push a large area of lake water downward and out. This can occur often over the lake. But to arrive at the Chicago lakeshore and start an oscillation going, the pressure rise will need to have occurred over Lake Michigan at a location north of Milwaukee. The resulting outward flowing crest then travels southeast to the west Michigan lakeshore, before rebounding southwest to the Chicago lakeshore.

Lake water rises of 1 to 2 feet are most common but have been known to go much higher. Most prominent in Chicago history is the 1954 seiche that occurred on June 26th. Eight fishermen were swept away in a 10 foot seiche as they worked along the breakwaters. While most seiches appear only as a fluctuation of high and low tides, an actual wave was visible with this monster seiche of 1954. Clues to their presence are only received at the National Weather Service via alert and cognizant observers on the Michigan or Chicago lakeshore.

The oscillation frequency between high and low water is usually 20 to 30 minutes. Gravity eventually takes charge and dampens the fluctuation extremes with time. Thus it may take many hours before the seiche subsides completely. This, in turn, depends on the severity of the seiche.

Hurricane Boris Says Hello a Month Late

Hurricane Season Started June First ByIt is always nice to get the first hurricane of the season -- this one is Hurricane Boris -- out of the way especially when, for all intensive purposes it is of a mild nature and apparently presents no threat to land. The hurricane, dubbed "Hurricane Boris" got its start over the weekend as a tropical storm and as it moved into the Pacific Ocean and away from land it developed into a category one level hurricane.

For those of you not familiar with Hurricane categorization, hurricanes are rated from class one to class five with five being the strongest. I recall David Letterman many years ago, when he was a weatherman in Indianapolis, congratulating a hurricane on its promotion from tropical storm; perhaps we can recount the joke here many times we wouldn't be able to. Most attention is paid to the Atlantic since that is where the majority of storms start and where, and then the majorities of hurricanes develop and come to land. In the States that is most often Florida and surrounding states.

What does this year look like? I could almost have told you that it was going to be a volatile year just by the weather in my state and we are never close to a hurricane. This is July 1^st, and we are still not seeing warm and hot weather on any kind of a regular basis. That is the report from those "in the know"; it will be a hard year for hurricanes. In fact, there is a greater than 50% chance that we will have a rugged season. How would one go about defining a "rugged season"? Well, according to the Climate Prediction center there may be over a dozen hurricanes with the majority of them defined as worse than average.

For now, however, Hurricane Boris has weakened with winds at about 75 miles per hour. As I said, I don't live in a "hurricane community". However, for those people who do battle hurricanes every year, I'm reasonably sure Hurricane Boris has not gone unnoticed. Actually he is a little late since hurricane season starts June 1^st. Probably the rest to the year, we'll be looking Southeast, not West. References:

Chertoff Says Country Ready for Hurricane Season, but Wonders if Individuals Are

By Daniel Fowler, CQ Staff

While the nation may be prepared for this year’s hurricane season, questions remain about individual readiness, says Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff.

“I think the country is prepared,” Chertoff said Tuesday at the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hurricane Awareness Day. “I think the big question is are individuals taking steps they need on a family basis to get prepared.”

And the country’s overall readiness for the hurricane season should not be taken as a sign that there won’t be difficulties associated with a major hurricane, Chertoff noted.

“Obviously, any major hurricane, Category 3 or above, is going to be a bad event, and it’s going to cause hardship and distress and may cause loss of life,” he said. “Our planning, our capabilities are much better now than they’ve ever been before at the federal level. I believe at the state level, particularly in the Gulf states they are better than they’ve ever been before. The key element though, the cornerstone has got to be that individual preparation.”

Chertoff emphasized that because the past two years have been quiet hurricane-wise doesn’t mean people shouldn’t be prepared.

“If people are lulled into a sense of complacency because 2006 and 2007 didn’t produce a major hurricane in the [United States] and they don’t do the preparation that we’ve recommended, then there is going to be a problem,” he said. “If people do take what I think are pretty reasonable steps, I think that’s going to be the most important and certainly the final piece that has to be in place.”

Chertoff said some steps that families should take include knowing where they will go during an evacuation, having a supply of food, water and medicine, a battery-operated radio and making sure they have gasoline in the their cars when a hurricane watch or warning is announced.

“Getting all of these steps in place, the emergency preparedness kit, the plan and listening to direction is the cornerstone of hurricane preparedness,” he said.

Chertoff said DHS is working with its Ready campaign and the Ad Council and will launch “new public service announcements designed to get people to focus on the simple, but necessary steps they need to take to be ready for hurricane season.”

Chertoff isn’t the only one concerned about individual preparedness.

“Our surveys show that only 7 percent of the American public is ready [with] a plan for a disaster,” said Mary S. Elcano, acting president and chief executive officer of the American Red Cross, who participated in the event. “Only 7 percent have taken the steps necessary to prepare and our view is that in every disaster, every individual and family should consider themselves to be ... the real first-responders. It’s time to get prepared.”

Larry J. Gispert, director of Hillsborough County, Fla., Emergency Management and president of the International Association of Emergency Managers, doesn’t think the “country is ever ready for any hurricane season” and said individual preparedness is the country’s “weakest” link in this area.

“Individual readiness is the biggest part of the whole formula and that’s where we are the weakest,” Gispert said. “We cannot force these citizens to be prepared. They must do that on their own.”

Gispert said most citizens don’t take the threat of hurricanes seriously. “So as a consequence, we can never be ready to respond if the citizens do not listen and will not heed our warnings and as a consequence evacuate when we ask them to,” he said.

But Gispert, who wasn’t at the forum, does think the country is better off now than it was during Hurricane Katrina. He said government agencies from the local to federal level are generally “getting better prepared,” but still aren’t ready.

Craig Fugate, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said FEMA is doing its job to get the country prepared and he’d like to see local and state governments “spending more time like we do in Florida talking about hurricane season.”

“My biggest concern is the public is still too apathetic and doesn’t take responsibility to be a survivor and plays the victim game,” he said.

Daniel Fowler can be reached at dfowler@cq.com.

MARITIME NOTE

Reader's eye on the Riverdance Ferry

SO what will you point your lens at now?

Rapid progress is being made to cut up beached ferry Riverdance – with parts of the stern and bow section being removed from the beach at Anchorsholme.

The ship has attracted thousands of people to the coast since it ran aground on February 1 during a storm. Emergency services managed to get all crew and passengers safely off the vessel.

And ever since Gazette readers have snapped away, taking hundreds of superb shots of the Seatruck's vessel which is now destined for the scrap metal merchants.

Many have captured the drama of the doomed refloating exercise, some show how the ship gradually sank into the sands, while others, as seen here, went for a humorous take.

Soon the photo opportunity and tourist attraction will be no more.
Demotion work, being carried out between tides, is due to be completed by the end of June.

RS