WebExclusive: EPIRBs and the s/v Sean Seamour II

This is the first in a series of very serious and important reports on one of the mysteries we have not yet discussed about the sinking of the s/v Sean Seamour II and the harrowing rescue of its crew.

The potential malfunction of one of the EPIRBs that was activated after the sailboat was struck and sunk by a very powerful wave during Subtropical Storm Andrea.

In doing the research and deciding to write about this issue, let me be very clear. It is not my intention to single out any one manufacturer of EPIRBs, since there has been problems and concerns with a host of EPIRBs throughout their development and deployment. But this current issue has some very critical ramifications and lessons for all mariners who use any type of EPIRB. I will also note that as of this writing, the entire episode regarding this EPIRB is under investigation by both the United States Coast Guard and by independent technical specialists on behalf of the Master of the Sean Seamour II.

I am also very sure that ACR Electronics of Fort Lauderdale, Florida is also very concerned and interested in getting to the bottom of the cause of the potential malfunction.

Let's start by going back into the log of the s/v Sean Seamour II;

"immediately after the knockdown, I initiated the EPIRB, an ACR 406 Rapidfix. A half hour later , I realized that the strobe light was no longer functioning and that the intensity of the "on" light had dropped considerably.

I reinitialized the unit, with no further success whereas I had the unit re-certified two weeks before. But far worst yet is the fact that the Coast Guard received the signal but attributed it to another vessel! In their database my ID corresponded to a boat in Alabama. The Coast Guard immediately called the point of contact indicated in the database, having to wake up the owner at three am to be told "no I have not initiated my EPIRB.

They asked him to disconnect the battery... and the signal stop emitting at that approximate moment - about the same time my unit stopped functioning! Considering this, they decided to stop the search on this signal! What saved me, is that I had kept the EPIRB from a preceding boat, Lou Pantaï. This second EPIRB was held in its cradle on the inside of the hard dodger. Upon the first knockdown this structure was sheared off the boat and sank, but luckily, the 11 year old EPIRB went into hydrostatic release and provided the Coast Guard with Lu Pantaï ID. It is this one that they sought and found - failing that none of us would have survived.

There is therefore two faults: the first relating to the registration of the EPIRB, this was done by a UK company, the second by the manufacturer' accredited service station who pronounced the unit valid, when this was not the case."

In up coming postings we are going to take a very close look at EPIRBs and especially the ACR 406 MHz EPIRB Rapidfix with GPS Interface Category II, Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon (EPIRB) and the two issues as outlined by the s/v Sean Seamour II's Master. "The registration of the EPIRB, this was done by a UK company, the second by the manufacturer' accredited service station who pronounced the unit valid, when this was not the case".

Before we take a look and investigate what went wrong with this EPIRB and there are many possibilities, we must first understand what a EPIRB really is and how it works.

What is an EPIRB and how does it work?

EPIRB stands for Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon. An EPIRB is meant to help rescuers locate you in an emergency situation, and these radios have saved many lives since their creation in the 1970s. Boaters are the main users of EPIRBs.

A modern EPIRB is a sophisticated device that contains:

• A 5-watt radio transmitter operating at 406 MHz (see How the Radio Spectrum Works for details on frequencies)
• A 0.25-watt radio transmitter operating at 121.5 MHz
• A GPS receiver

Once activated, both of the radios start transmitting. Approximately 24,000 miles (39,000 km) up in space, a GOES weather satellite in a geosynchronous orbit can detect the 406-MHz signal. Embedded in the signal is a unique serial number, and, if the unit is equipped with a GPS receiver, the exact location of the radio is conveyed in the signal as well. If the EPIRB is properly registered, the serial number lets the Coast Guard know who owns the EPIRB. Rescuers in planes or boats can home in on the EPIRB using either the 406-MHz or 121.5-MHz signal.

Older EPIRBs did not contain the GPS receiver, so the GOES satellite received only a serial number. To locate the EPIRB, another set of satellites (like the TIROS-N satellite) orbiting the planet in a low polar orbit could pick up the signal as it passed overhead. This would give a rough fix on the location, but it took several hours for a satellite to come into range.

Types of EPIRBs

Emergency position indicating radiobeacons (EPIRBs), devices which cost from $200 to about $1500, are designed to save your life if you get into trouble by alerting rescue authorities and indicating your location. EPIRB types are described below:

Class A

121.5/243 MHZ. Float-free, automatically-activating, detectable by aircraft and satellite. Coverage is limited. An alert from this device to a rescue coordination center may be delayed 4 - 6 or more hours. These devices have been phased out by the FCC and are no longer recognized.

Class B

121.5/243 MHZ. Manually activated version of Class A. These devices have been phased out by the FCC and are no longer recognized.

Class C

VHF ch15/16. Manually activated, operates on maritime channels only. Not detectable by satellite. These devices have been phased out by the FCC and are no longer recognized.

Class S

121.5/243 MHZ. Similar to Class B, except it floats, or is an integral part of a survival craft. These devices have been phased out by the FCC and are no longer recognized.

Category I

406/121.5 MHZ. Float-free, automatically activated EPIRB. Detectable by satellite anywhere in the world. Recognized by GMDSS.

Category II

406/121.5 MHZ. Similar to Category I, except is manually activated. Some models are also water activated.

Inmarsat E

1646 MHZ. Float-free, automatically activated EPIRB. Detectable by Inmarsat geostationary satellite. Recognized by GMDSS. Currently not sold in the U.S.; however, the Federal Communications Commission is considering recognizing these devices. This service will end 12/31/2006.

121.5/243 MHz EPIRBs

These are the most common and least expensive type of EPIRB, designed to be detected by overflying commercial or military aircraft. Satellites were designed to detect these EPIRBs, but are limited for the following reasons:

1. Satellite detection range is limited for these EPIRBs (satellites must be within line of sight of both the EPIRB and a ground terminal for detection to occur),
2. Frequency congestion in the band used by these devices cause a high satellite false alert rate (99.8%); consequently, confirmation is required before search and rescue forces can be deployed,
3. EPIRBs manufactured before October 1989 may have design or construction problems (e.g. some models will leak and cease operating when immersed in water), or may not be detectable by satellite. Such EPIRBs may no longer be sold,
4. Because of location ambiguities and frequency congestion in this band, two or more satellite passes are necessary to determine if the signal is from an EPIRB and to determine the location of the EPIRB, delaying rescue by an average of 4 to 6 hours. In some cases, a rescue can be delayed as long as 12 hours.
5. COSPAS-SARSAT is expected to cease detecting alerts by 2008.

One November 3, 2000, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that satellite processing 121.5/243 MHz emergency beacons will be terminated on February 1, 2009. Class A and B EPIRBs must be phased out by that date. The U.S. Coast Guard no longer recommends these EPIRBs be purchased.

As part of the United States efforts to prepare beacon users for the end of 121.5 MHz frequency processing by satellites, the FCC has prohibited the use of 121.5 MHz EPIRBs as of January 1, 2007 (47 CFR 80.1053, .1055, and .1059)

406 MHz EPIRBs

The 406 MHz EPIRB was designed to operate with satellites. The signal frequency (406 MHz) has been designated internationally for use only for distress. Other communications and interference, such as on 121.5 MHz, is not allowed on this frequency. Its signal allows a satellite local user terminal to accurately locate the EPIRB (much more accurately -- 2 to 5 km vice 25 km -- than 121.5/243 MHz devices), and identify the vessel (the signal is encoded with the vessel's identity) anywhere in the world (there is no range limitation). These devices are detectable not only by COSPAS-SARSAT satellites which are polar orbiting, but also by geostationary GOES weather satellites. EPIRBs detected by the GEOSTAR system, consisting of GOES and other geostationary satellites, send rescue authorities an instant alert, but without location information unless the EPIRB is equipped with an integral GPS receiver. EPIRBs detected by COSPAS-SARSAT (e.g. TIROS N) satellites provide rescue authorities location of distress, but location and sometimes alerting may be delayed as much as an hour or two. These EPIRBs also include a 121.5 MHz homing signal, allowing aircraft and rescue craft to quickly find the vessel in distress. These are the only type of EPIRB which must be certified by Coast Guard approved independent laboratories before they can be sold in the United States.

A new type of 406 MHz EPIRB, having an integral GPS navigation receiver, became available in 1998. This EPIRB will send accurate location as well as identification information to rescue authorities immediately upon activation through both geostationary (GEOSAR) and polar orbiting satellites. These types of EPIRB are the best you can buy.

406 MHz emergency locating transmitters (ELTs) for aircraft are currently available. 406 MHz personnel locating beacons (PLBs) are available.

The Coast Guard recommends you purchase a 406 MHz EPIRB, preferably one with an integral GPS navigation receiver. A Cat I EPIRB should be purchased if it can be installed properly.

406 MHz GEOSAR System

The major advantage of the 406 MHz low earth orbit system is the provision of global Earth coverage using a limited number of polar-orbiting satellite. Coverage is not continuous, however, and it may take up to a couple of hours for an EPIRB alert to be received. To overcome this limitation, COSPAS-SARSAT has 406 MHz EPIRB repeaters aboard three geostationary satellites, plus one spare: GOES-W, at 135 deg W; GOES-E, at 75 deg W; INSAT-2A, at 74 deg E; and INSAT-2B (in-orbit spare), at 93.5 deg E. Ground stations capable of receiving 406 MHz. Except for areas between the United Kingdom and Norway, south of the east coast of Australia, and the area surrounding the Sea of Okhotsk near Russia, as well as polar areas, GEOSAR provides continuous global coverage of distress alerts from 406 MHz EPIRBs.

Note that GEOSAR cannot detect 121.5 MHz alerts, nor can it route unregistered 406 MHz alerts to a rescue authority. GEOSAR cannot calculate the location of any alert it receives, unless the beacon has an integral GPS receiver.

The COSPAS-SARSAT System

COSPAS-SARSAT is an international satellite-based search and rescue system established by the U.S., Russia, Canada and France to locate emergency radio beacons transmitting on the frequencies 121.5, 243 and 406 MHZ.

COSPAS

Space System for Search of Distress Vessels (a Russian acronym)

SARSAT

Search and Rescue Satellite-Aided Tracking

Testing EPIRBs

406 MHz EPIRBs can be tested through its self-test function, which is an integral part of the device. 406 MHz EPIRBs can also be tested inside a container designed to prevent its reception by the satellite. Testing a 406 MHz EPIRB by allowing it to radiate outside such a container is illegal.

Battery Replacement

406 MHz EPIRBs use a special type of lithium battery designed for long-term low-power consumption operation. Batteries must be replaced by the date indicated on the EPIRB label using the model specified by the manufacturer. It should be replaced by a dealer approved by the manufacturer. If the replacement battery is not the proper type, the EPIRB will not operate for the duration specified in a distress.

Registration of 406 MHz EPIRBs

Proper registration of your 406 MHz satellite emergency position-indicating radio beacon (EPIRB) is intended to save your life, and is mandated by Federal Communications Commission regulations. The Coast Guard is enforcing this FCC registration rule.

Your life may be saved as a result of registered emergency information. This information can be very helpful in confirming that a distress situation exists, and in arranging appropriate rescue efforts. Also, GOES, a geostationary National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration weather satellite system can pick up and relay an EPIRB distress alert to the Coast Guard well before the international COSPAS-SARSAT satellite can provide location information. If the EPIRB is properly registered, the Coast Guard will be able to use the registration information to immediately begin action on the case. If the EPIRB is unregistered, a distress alert may take as much as two hours longer to reach the Coast Guard over the international satellite system. If an unregistered EPIRB transmission is abbreviated for any reason, the satellite will be unable to determine the EPIRB's location, and the Coast Guard will be unable to respond to the distress alert. Unregistered EPIRBs have needlessly cost the lives of several mariners since the satellite system became operational.

What happens to your registration form?

The registration sheet you fill out and send in is entered into the U.S. 406 Beacon Registration Database maintained by NOAA/NESDIS. If your EPIRB is activated, your registration information will be sent automatically to the appropriate USCG SAR Rescue Coordination Center (RCC) for response. One of the first things the RCC watchstanders do is attempt to contact the owner/operator at the phone number listed in the database to determine if the vessel is underway (thus ruling out the possibility of a false alarm due to accidental activation or EPIRB malfunction), the intended route of the vessel if underway, the number of people on board, etc., from a family member. If there is no answer at this number, or no information, the other numbers listed in the database will be called to attempt to get the information described above needed to assist the RCC in responding appropriately to the EPIRB alert.

When RCC personnel contact the emergency phone numbers you provide, they will have all the information you have provided on the registration form. You should let these contacts know as much about your intended voyage as possible (i.e., intended route, stops, area you normally sail/fish/recreate, duration of trip, number of people going, etc.). The more information these contacts have, the better prepared our SAR personnel will be to react. The contacts can ask the RCC personnel contacting them to be kept informed of any developments, if they so desire.

Registration regulations

You may be fined for false activation of an unregistered EPIRB. The U.S. Coast Guard routinely refers cases involving the non-distress activation of an EPIRB (e.g., as a hoax, through gross negligence, carelessness or improper storage and handling) to the Federal Communications Commission. The FCC will prosecute cases based upon evidence provided by the Coast Guard, and will issue warning letters or notices of apparent liability for fines up to $10,000.

However, the Coast Guard has suspended forwarding non-distress activations of properly registered 406 MHz EPIRBs to the FCC, unless activation was due to hoax or gross negligence, since these search and rescue cases are less costly to prosecute.

If you purchase a new or a used 406 MHz EPIRB, you MUST register it with NOAA. If you change your boat, your address, or your primary phone number, you MUST re-register your EPIRB with NOAA. If you sell your EPIRB, make sure the purchaser re-registers the EPIRB, or you may be called by the Coast Guard if it later becomes activated.

An FCC ship station license is no longer required to purchase or carry an EPIRB.

How to register

You may register by visiting the SARSAT Beacon Registration page.

There is no charge for this service. IT MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE.

For more information see the NOAA SARSAT Homepage

In the next report we will visit how the system communicates between satellite and rescue personnel.

Previous Posts;

NHC Report on Subtropical Storm Andrea
Cheating Death On The High Seas
The s/v Sean Seamour II & The Hatteras Trench
High Sea's Update On Sean Seamour II
The Story of the Sailing Vessel Sean Seamour II

Best
RS

Reunion Island & Man-Yi

This is a very interesting story, which was brought to my attention by a mariner who reads my blog.

I was so impressed with it I sent it to Dr. Paul C. Liu of NOAA who also blogs under the name Freaque Waves. Dr. Liu had indeed blogged about the wave that hit Reunion Island on 13 May 2007, but had not seen the ESA Sat Photo's.

Since Dr. Liu's has already posted the story " Giant wave hits Réunion island. " on his site, read about it from a real pro on large waves.

Below is the story and satellite photos from the ESA on the same wave that hit Reunion Island..

"A giant 36ft. wave was caught by a satellite imaging radar when it thrashed the southern port of Saint Pierre, Reunion Island on Saturday evening sending piers crashing down and flooding homes along the coastline. Two fishermen were still reported missing after their boat capsized.

Thought to be only legendary but now a natural ocean phenomenon, not rare, but rarely encountered. Evidence from mariners’ claimed that disappearances and damages to large ocean vessels suggests they have occurred. This evidence was confirmed following measurements of a massive wave at the oil platform in the North Sea in 1995. which caused minor damage was inflicted on the platform, confirming that the reading was valid.

Researchers from the GKSS Research Centre, using data collected by ESA satellites, identified a large number of radar signatures that may be evidence for rogue waves. Further research verifies the method that translated the radar echoes into sea surface elevation.

Freak waves or rogue waves have been cited in the media as a likely source of the sudden unexplainable disappearances of many ocean vessels.

The animated image (above link) was acquired by the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) aboard the space shuttle Endeavour on October 5, 1994. The image is centered at 21.2 degrees south latitude, 55.6 degrees east longitude. The area shown is approximately 50 km by 80 km (31 miles by 50 miles).

North is toward the upper right. Colors are assigned to different frequencies and polarizations of the radar as follows: red is L-band horizontally transmitted, vertically received; green is L-band horizontally transmitted, vertically received; and blue is C-band horizontally transmitted, vertically received. SIR-C/X-SAR, a joint mission of the German, Italian and United States space agencies, is part of NASA’s Mission to Planet Earth. Envisat is equipped with an advanced version of the SAR instrument, Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR), flown on the ERS-1 and ERS-2 missions.

Its wave mode acquires 10 by 5 km small images, or ‘imagettes’, of the sea surface every 100 km along the satellite orbit. These small ‘imagettes’, which depict the individual wave heights, are then mathematically transformed into averaged-out breakdowns of wave energy and direction, called ocean-wave spectra, which ESA makes available to scientists and weather centres."

Resources: European Space Agency -http://www.esa.int/esaCP/index.html

NASA

Weather Note;

This video from the Weather Channel on Typhoon Man-Yi striking Japan.




"The typhoon sank a Chinese freighter 400 miles NW of Guam with 9 lost with the ship. Man-Yi would go on to bring Okinawa 105 mph wind gusts with major loss of power in Japan. The storm then crossed into Kyushu with 80-90 mph winds and flooding rains and more widespread power outages.

The storm's fury would injure 70 people and kill 5 on Kyushu. The typhoon weakened to a tropical storm but still brought 3-4 inches of rain to Tokyo and snarled train, plane, and car travel for several days. The system has now become extratropical and is moving rapidly away from the mainland with a threat only to shipping later today and tonight" (The Weather Channel).

We are also monitoring Tropical Storm COSME currently tracking for Hawaii.





RS

M/V Ital Florida

Once again mother nature can generate some powerful storms and waves. These waves can do a lot of damage to cargo and the vessel itself. As they say, pictures are worth a thousand words. Here (left) we have a picture of the container ship M/V Ital Florida on her maiden voyage departing port and below, the aftermath of mother nature at sea.

According to Cargolaw, the M/V Ital Florida made her maiden call at Hong Kong on April 20 2007. But the beginning of a busy career was interupted by a "Stack Attack" between June 16 & 19 2007.

This is the brand new Italian flaged container ship M/V Ital Florida, particulars include: Length: 238.9 Meters (783.7 ft). Draft: 12.03 meters (39.4 ft). Gross ITC Tonnage -36,483.00 tons

The M/V Ital Florida lost at least three fully loaden containers in severe seas between June 16 & 19 in the Arabian Sea. The ship faced wave heigths of 7-10 m height (22 to 32 Ft). The M/V Ital Florida was running with almost 16 knots. The ship's deck also suffered storm damage.

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The question that is being asked?. Was this problem the result of improper lashing securing, bad weather or both? Many times improper lashing of the containers on deck plays a major role in loss of cargo during a storm. However this 783 foot containship is evidence that when mother nature roars "Ship Happens".

Now imagine a 44 foot sailboat like the s/v Sean Seamour II or any sailboat taking waves like this?

Weather Note:

On Saturday, 14 July 2007 Typhoon Man-yi struck southern Japan injuring 34. As reported by the AP. This powerful storm is also responsible for the sinking of a 420-foot cargo ship owned by Fuzhou Haijing Shipping, which was en route from Papua New Guinea to China when the cargo began shifting as the vessel encountered 70 mph winds and 24-foot seas from the typhoon. The number of survivors among the 22-member crew rose to 13, with eight receiving medical attention and 3 found dead in the U.S. territory about 3,700 miles southwest of Hawaii.

The Coast Guard cutter Sequoia arrived on scene Friday 13 July 2007 to coordinate operations as the air and sea search continued for the remaining six crew missing members. About 100 square miles had been searched, the AP reported.

RS

Subsea Atmospheres

We have talked about rogue and freak waves often on this blog. While these type of wave patterns are still under study, much is still unknown about them. It is my belief that these type of waves can be generated by subsea environments or storms that we still really do not know much about. We talk about chasing tornados and the hurricanes. But know anyone who chases underwater storms?

So, I am going to start a series of discussions, post articles and reports on subsea atmospheres and introduce you to a different type of storm chaser, "Oceanographers".

As I have stated before, we have a tendency to view things on a one plane thought process, namely, we process things as we "see" them. Much of what happens throughout the weather story we still do not see directly, yet. Moreover, science has been studying subsea or underwater atmospheres or storms, also known as, "Benthic Storms" for some time now. Maybe one day we will have ocean study as a national priority.

Much of our weather I believe, actually is generated by weather patterns not just by surface atmospheres, but also by weather patterns created by subsea attmospheres and environments. Basically, the ocean has its own weather system, with winds and underwater storms that we never hear about or even see. . Oceanographer Dave Gallo from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute describes how much more there is going on in the ocean than we think.

According to Gallo, "70 % of the planet, 95% of the biosphere, there are the highest mountains, the deepest valleys, the largest waterfall. There are more animals in the sea than on earth. 99% of the heat on the planet that comes from the sun is stored in the top few tens of feet of the ocean. It has everything the atmosphere has and more, it has everything that the land has and more and yet it's hardly explored, we've really seen less than 1% of what's out there.

Something oceanographers didn't expect were underwater storms. During a recent research mission to the deepest and darkest part of the ocean where things were thought to be quite stable - patterns from sediment samples showed disruptions as if a storm had ripped through.

There's a large mass of either sediments and/or water moving usually with gravity downhill or moving with currents across the sea floor. They can be fairly vicious.

An underwater storm can also cause damage on land, although indirectly. Back in the early 1900's a storm ripped across the sea floor and snapped northeastern transatlantic cables. The ocean has weather very similar to the atmosphere with high and low-pressure systems, clear days, and cloudy days:

The same kinds of things we see on the weather channel we see in the ocean and yet these things operate apart from the atmosphere.

Just like predicting the weather on land, underwater predicting is difficult as well. It's still an unfamiliar world."

Understanding subsea environments and being able to forecast subsea storms, as we do surface storms today, may not just answer many questions we do not understand about our oceans, but answer the question, where do freak or rogue waves come from? Hopefully benefiting mariners with advanced warning of dangerous SWH's or waves and more importantly save lives, cargo and ships.

Lets start with the basics, the physical and chemical make up of the oceans, with a paper titled, The Blue Planet,.

Weather Note;

Typhoon MAN-YI late yesterday became a Super Typhoon or a CAT-5 Hurricane as it struck the "Rock" and is tracking for Japan.

"The eye of Man-Yi was 189 kilometers from the city of Naha on the main island of Okinawa at 5 p.m. Japanese time today, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on its Web site. The storm is moving north across open water at 30 kilometers per hour after crossing Okinawa prefecture, which has a population of 1.4 million people.

The meteorological office said Man-Yi is ``extremely strong'' and issued warnings of gales, heavy rain, high waves and a tidal surge throughout Okinawa, the location of the biggest American airbase outside the U.S., and parts of Kyushu island to the north. National broadcaster NHK said areas of Miyazaki prefecture in Kyushu were flooded, and showed images of cars blown over and downed power lines. Bloomberg News."

Chicago weekend weather? Breath taking!

Have a really great weekend!

RS

Okinawa braces for Typhoon 04W (Man-yi)

My second and important weather story of the day. Its been quiet in the Atlantic ( with exception of the storm at the NHC) but the Pacific is blowing a wind. That storm has been designated Typhoon Man-Yi (04W).

As of this morning, Typhoon Man-Yi (04W) was centered near 22 north and 128.5 east. Its winds were sustained at around 145 mph, and was tracking movement to the north-northwest at 15 mph, putting it at a strength very close to that of a category-4 hurricane.

The storm has the possibility of strengthening to a super typhoon (winds above 150 mph) very briefly Thursday afternoon, just before making landfall over Okinawa in the Ryukyu Islands by tonight. Waves are expected be greater than 35 feet, while a driving rainfall and strong, dangerous winds will batter the region. Mariners need to avoid this storm and all residence of Okinawa and the general area should take precautions prior to the arrival of this dangerous storm.

Here are the details from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Typhoon 04W (Man-Yi)

RS

More on Proenza

Ok I said it would be my last. But I found two articles one from the AP and the other from ABC News on the NHC a day after Bill Proenza was replaced. I don't think I was far off in my Monday, July 9, 2007 The NHC Follies posting.

Most of the hubbub seems to have been Proenza being critical of his bosses at NOAA and some of the staff not taking to Proenza's management style and speed of decision. Some of these people on staff at the NHC have been there since the USG laid the cornerstone to the building and I believe they need to get a grip. If this was the corporate world the changes would not be in upper management but in the staff. If this is true and that staff revolted because of their own special interests and childish attitudes, then it was not Proenza who damaged public confidence, it was the staff itself. Which again if true, I find appalling.

I also find it interesting that Ed Rappaport the Deputy originally turned down the job of Director. Why? Well I guess that is evident. Between the suits at NOAA/Commerce doing the Beltway CYA line dance and the children on staff, the director must go home every night, take a shower, and blow dry his hair with a 12 gauge shot gun!

Yesterday the The US Senate Commerce Committee took up a hearing on QuikSCAT and other issues at the NHC. Here is the opening statement by Senator Daniel K. Inouye and the testimonies of Ms. Mary Ellen Kicza, Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Kizca Satellites Testimony . Dr. Michael Freilich, Director, Earth Science Division Science Mission Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Mr. David Powner, Director, Technology Management Issues Government Accountability Office.Dr. Greg Holland, Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research and Dr. Antonio Busalacchi, Professor and Director, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland.

Ex-Hurricane Center Chiefs: Job's Tough

July 11, 2007

By Jessica Gresko, The Associated Press

MIAMI - A day after the director of the National Hurricane Center went on leave amid leadership questions, former directors said Tuesday he should have listened more carefully to his staff and made changes more slowly.

Bill Proenza went on leave after 23 employees - about half his staff - urged his immediate removal last week. Center employees said Proenza damaged public confidence in their forecasting ability and distracted the center from its work.

"I think the bottom line is that he simply did not listen to his senior staff," said Proenza's predecessor, Max Mayfield.

A chief complaint was the way Proenza called for a replacement of an aging satellite called QuikScat, used for hurricane forecasting.

"If he would have hung in there for one season and had kept his head down for one season (without making changes), he would have been much better off," said Jerry Jarrell, director of the center from 1998 to 2000, who now lives in Oregon. "He forgot that he had to be an advocate for the forecasters. He should have waited until he had some more experience, but sort of plunged in."

Still, Proenza's "heart's in the right place," he said.

A hurricane center spokesman said its interim director, Ed Rappaport, was busy preparing for the 2007 hurricane season and would not comment. A cell phone message left for Proenza was not returned.

Proenza, the center's eighth director, had been on the job since January.

Proenza may have set himself up for removal by criticizing his bosses at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on budget shortfalls and other issues, Jarrell said.

"When you criticize your boss and when you do it publicly in the media, you're sort of inviting your subordinates to do the same thing to you," Jarrell said.

Jarrell said that he had at least one situation where he felt he had to be outspoken as director, during a threat of budget cuts in the 1990s, but that he made his comments with the support of his staff and others, including Proenza, he said.

Neil Frank, the center's head in the 1970s and 80s, said he had few controversies during his 13-year tenure, the major one being which office should directly oversee the center. Now the chief meteorologist at a Houston TV station, Frank was credited with reaching out to the media. He said he was careful to work within the system.

"Talking to the media and bypassing NOAA headquarters is fraught with some danger, as you now know," said Frank, who remembered a young Proenza helping him on his doctoral dissertation.

A Commerce Department team sent to conduct a review of the center after Proenza's comments was finishing its work Tuesday. Proenza had said the inspection was unnecessary and blamed some staff animosity on the team, which has a report due to the Commerce Department on July 20. The department oversees NOAA, the hurricane center's parent agency.

The Senate Commerce Committee planned to take up the issue of QuikScat and other weather and environmental satellites in a hearing Wednesday.

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

And this from ABC News;

"THE U.S. HAS NEVER BEEN MORE VULNERABLE TO HURRICANES..."

July 11, 2007 10:02 AM

Former head of the National Hurricane Center Bill Proenza has company!

Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research will tell a senate committee Wednesday that "ACCURATE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS OF HURRICANES HAS TO BE MADE A NATIONAL PRIORITY."

He will say that "investing in improved computer models and hardware is an investment that has to be made if we are to make substantive progress on predicting hurricane intensity and structure" and will add cutbacks in some of the weather satellite programs "ARE A SERIOUS STEP BACKWARD ... "

"OF GREATEST PRIORITY in my view is for there to be a coordinated, WELL-FUNDED RESEARCH and SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT approach focused on REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANES ON VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES."

Senator Bill Nelson, democrat of Florida, who represents some of those "vulnerable communities will chair the 10:00am hearing.

Just typical of politics and it looks like Bill Proenza was right. I wonder what some of his staff has to say?. I still believe that the Department of Commerce Inspector General needs to take a serious look.

RS

The NHC Report on Subtropical Storm Andrea

This is the long awaited report on Subtropical Storm Andrea by the NHC. I do have some problems and discrepancies with the report regarding the NHC findings and the data from both the s/v Sean Seamour II and the USCG.

Lets start with;

1. Why does the NHC not monitor and issue Tropical Weather Outlooks prior to June 1 the “official” start of the Atlantic hurricane season?

2. On the announced morning of the storm NWS/NHC stated that winds were NNE 20 to 25, shifting and strengthening to the NNO up to 35, mostly affecting coastal waters. In reality, by 1300 the s/v Sean Seamour II had winds at 60kts, by 1700 they were over 70 with wave structure regular but in excess of 25 feet. By 2100 the sail boat had sustained winds at 74kts, around 2300 hours their new and calibrated windvane read its max capacity at 85.5. The brunt of the system went over the sail boat around 0000 hours and began receding from there on.

3. The first satellite data on 7 July 2007, timed 1547hours. Clearly shows the concentric of a tropical storm in formation, except that I believe when the sat image was taken it was in fact collapsing. Going back to data, at 0100 we still had sustained winds of around 74kts, slowly receding til the sailboat was knocked down at 0245 when wind measurement instruments recorded sustained winds above 70kts. In the sailboats location during Coast Guard extraction USCG rescue personnel claimed winds were still around 70kts around 0830.

4. Another factor that militates to the forming hurricane structure was the wave patterns change which clearly shifted about 30° between 2200hours on the 6th and 0200 on the 7th. Finally, wave structure was far too high for the wind structure that is vaguely address. Again to quote USCG personnel and others irregardless of the s/v Sean Seamour II observations, they had waves well over 70 feet.

5. On the issue of a rogue and or freak wave. I am holding back the reply until I can get confirmation of the NHC position and until I am sure both the NHC and myself have the correct wave data for the exact location when the s/v Sean Seamour II ran into trouble. I will update this as soon as the NHC replies.

These are major discrepancies between forecasts and actual's. I am awaiting a reply from the NHC. Now in all fairness to both NWS and NHC and they will tell you themselves that they forecast based on satellites, buoys, aircraft and computer models and that there can be higher readings in certain spots that they do not have information on. Meaning if NWS/NHC forecast winds at 35mph and waves at 15 feet. There is a possibility of actual's being much, much higher.

I will also add a note to say that QuikScat is mentioned often in the report and it appears that along with other overhead platforms QuikScat is indeed a valuable NWS/NHC asset.

The report...

Tropical Cyclone Report
Subtropical Storm Andrea
(AL012007)
9-11 May 2007

Jamie R. Rhome, Jack Beven, and Mark Willis
National Hurricane Center
1 June, 2007


Andrea formed off the southeast coast of the United States. It was the eighth earliest cyclone since 1851 and the first May cyclone since 1981.

Synoptic History

Andrea formed from a large extratropical cyclone that originated just offshore the mid-Atlantic United States coast on 6 May. This pre-Andrea cyclone deepened steadily that day, with the central pressure falling 16 mb in the 24-hour period ending at 0600 UTC 7 May. The cyclone initially possessed the classic signature of a fully mature extratropical system, with the associated cold front pushing through Florida and reaching as far south as Cuba on 7 May. By late on 7 May, the extratropical cyclone lost most of its baroclinic support and development ended. However, interaction of the low and strong high pressure to the north produced hurricane-force winds. The resulting large area of high winds, along with the slow motion of the extratropical low, generated large waves that impacted much of the coast of the southeastern United States and the Bahamas Islands. On 8 May, the low weakened and began drifting westward over progressively warmer waters in the western Atlantic. Along this track, vertical shear also decreased allowing for the generation of deeper convection around the center. By early on 9 May, convection had become symmetric about the low-level circulation center, the cyclone had lost all of its frontal and cold core structure, and the wind field had contracted. It is estimated that the system transformed into a subtropical cyclone by 0600 UTC 9 May while centered about 150 n mi east of Jacksonville, Florida. The “best track” chart of the subtropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1.

The cyclone’s weakening continued during the subtropical phase, so Andrea’s peak intensity of 50 kt occurred at 0600 UTC 9 May. Initially, Andrea was trapped within the retrograding middle-to-upper-tropospheric cutoff low that had caused the pre-Andrea extratratropical cyclogenesis. This pattern resulted in relatively weak shear and a slow westward drift of the cyclone. By late on 9 May, Andrea came under the influence of strong northerly flow aloft on the western side of the upper-level low, resulting in increasing vertical shear and a slow southward motion. The increase in vertical shear displaced the strongest convection southeast of the low-level center, and Andrea weakened to a depression by 1200 UTC 10 May while centered about 95 n mi east-southeast of Jacksonville, Florida. Lacking significant deep convection, Andrea degenerated into a remnant low by 0000 UTC 11 May. The remnants of Andrea produced intermittent bursts of deep convection on 11 May while drifting southward just off the central coast of Florida. However, this activity was transient and never acquired sufficient organization for advisories to be re-initiated. The remnant low accelerated northeastward on 12-13 May ahead of an advancing cold front and later became absorbed within the frontal boundary by 14 May.

Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Andrea (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Herbert-Poteat and Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), as well as flight-level and dropwindsonde observations from two flights of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command. Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful in tracking Andrea. Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Andrea are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 3. Andrea’s estimated peak intensity of 50 kt as a subtropical cyclone near 0600 UTC 9 May is based mainly on QuikSCAT data. The peak wind of 65 kt during the extratropical phase is based on buoy 41001 located, approximate 150 n mi east of Cape Hatteras, which reported a maximum sustained wind of 55 kt with a gust to 70 kt at 0500 UTC 7 May.

The basis for Andrea’s designation as a subtropical cyclone beginning 0600 UTC 9 May includes conventional satellite imagery, nearby ship observations, and remotely-sensed ocean surface vector winds from QuikSCAT. Dropwindsondes obtained from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft flown on the morning of 9 May indicate that Andrea had no appreciable horizontal thermal gradients (Figure 4a) and was beginning to acquire warm core characteristics. Specifically, the vertical wind profiles displayed in Figure 4a show winds decreasing with height east of the center, a pattern indicative of a warm core cyclone, with winds increasing with height west of the center, a pattern indicative of a cold core cyclone. Conventional satellite infrared satellite imagery showed convection had become symmetric about the circulation center (Figure 4b), and surface observations and ocean surface vector winds from QuikSCAT showed that the radius of strongest winds had contracted to within 60 n mi of the center (Figure 5).

Rainfall totals over the southeastern United States were generally less than 1 inch and no flooding was reported.

Casualty and Damage Statistics

There were no reports of deaths directly attributable to Andrea as a subtropical storm. However, the pre-Andrea extratropical cyclone was directly responsible for 6 deaths including all four crew members of the 54-foot sailing vessel Flying Colours whose last known location was off the coast of North Carolina on 7 May, a kayaker who died after being pulled out to sea near Seabrook Island, South Carolina on 8 May, and a surfer who drowned after being overtaken by a large wave near New Smyrna Beach, Florida on 9 May. Even though the drowning on 9 May occurred a few hours after the designation of Andrea as subtropical cyclone, most of the wave energy responsible for this death was generated during the pre-Andrea extratropical phase. Additionally, the U.S. Coast Guard rescued 9 people from three sailboats off the coast of North Carolina on 7 May.

Since Andrea never made landfall, most of the resulting damage was associated with the generation of large waves, higher than normal astronomical tides and associated coastal flooding, and associated beach erosion. Most of the significant damage occurred from North Carolina through Florida on 6-8 May as a result of very strong winds and waves associated with the pre-Andrea extratropical cyclone. A storm surge of 2-3 ft was reported in St. Johns and Flagler Counties in northeastern Florida.

The vessel Paris Express encountered high seas in the Atlantic late on 6 May while en route from Savannah to Norfolk, resulting in the loss of 21 containers overboard. The resulting debris washed ashore from Cape Lookout, North Carolina northward to the Virginia border during the following days.

Forecast and Warning Critique

Since Tropical Weather Outlooks are not issued by the National Hurricane Center prior to June 1 (the “official” start of the Atlantic hurricane season), an assessment of genesis forecasts within that product is not possible. However, the pre-Andrea extratropical cyclone, including its associated hazards, was discussed by the National Hurricane Center within several Special Tropical Disturbance Statements beginning with the first issuance on the morning of 8 May.

A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is given in Table 4. Average official track errors for Andrea were 22, 46, and 67 n mi for the 12, 24, and 36 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average long-term official track errors are 35, 61, and 86 n mi for the 12, 24, and 36 h forecasts, respectively. A verification of official and guidance model intensity forecasts is given in Table 5. Average official intensity errors were 1, 5, and 1 kt for the 12, 24, and 36 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average long-term official intensity errors are 6, 10, and 12 kt, respectively. Both the official track and intensity forecasts were below the average long-term errors.

You can read the rest of the NHC report including the charts and graphs here at the NHC website Subtropical Storm Andrea.

Previous Posts;
Cheating Death On The High Seas
The s/v Sean Seamour II & The Hatteras Trench
High Sea's Update On Sean Seamour II
The Story of the Sailing Vessel Sean Seamour II


RS

The NHC Follies

Ok I am really not interested in politics though its my belief that its time for a real change in the US Congress and the White House. But the hoopla on Bill Proenza the Director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now getting to me. This blog was created for discussions on weather both on land and on the sea. Not the stupidity of bureaucrats and the politics of government. However I am going to kick myself and way in on this subject.

Bill Proenza replaced Max Mayfield this past January. Proenza has a very long history with NASA and NWS in forecasting weather. Let's face facts, Proenza did not get the position of Director of the National Hurricane Center because he did not know what he was doing, politics and Mike Brown aside. The man is qualified for the position. Furthermore, Proenza has a very different management style over his predecessors, he is very much hands. Whereas, the others were very "hands off" and allowed scientists to run with the football. Proenza likes to be not just the quarterback but the offensive and defensive coach as well. Proenza does not seem to play the games, meaning, "keep the complaints in the back room" that his predecessors did. He is very vocal. The heat seems to have started with his statements to the press about NOAA Wasting Millions and then his shot at the failing of the primary communications of the ten year old weather satellite QuikScat.

Last "Thursday, 23 employees - about half his staff - urged the government to removed him immediately". Ok, so half his staff does not like him. What about the other half? They don't count? Yes 99.7% of the staff are professionals and want to do the best they can. I also know that scientists do not take change easily, especially if someone is holding the reins on them. I am not going to start hammering other blogs for jumping one way or the other. We all enjoy free speech and opinion. However I do believe we need to read in between the lines here.

Ok, so we have a new chief, one who has a very different management style, who is very hands on and who is outspoken. So Proenza is upset that Commerce and NOAA spent about 100 Million on PR instead of technology. Well now, that seems to be a problem! Then he spouts off to the press about QuickScat a ten year old weather satellite losing its primary communication and the NHC needing to rely on its back up systems. NOAA spouts back with the press refuting Proenza and basically stating "NO PROBLEM" we got it covered and we will have another and better satellite airborne sometime around 2012. Really? QuickScat was a replacement for another failed satellite, ten years ago and NOAA and Commerce knew ten years ago that QuickScat was not designed for the long term. Ok now, my question. Where in Hurricane Heaven has Commerce and NOAA been for the last ten years? Oh yeah I forgot spending 100 million dollars of taxpayers money on public relations and parties.

Now enters part of the staff, who's complaints include that Proenza is undermining the public trust. By basically, opening his mouth in public and mis-representing facts about the QuickScat Satellite. Like the public does not question the NWS and some weather forecasters on a daily basis as it is now? Funny no mention of NOAA and Commerce blowing 100 Mil eh? Oh thats right, there were super secret, top level, hush-hush-mush-mush, behind closed door meetings with the staff to resolve some important issues! Yep, lets keep the public in the eye of the storm and not tell them that the other side of the storm is about to hit them.

Personally, it does not matter to me what Proenza claims about QuikScat or not. The fact is that the satellite was designed for a life span of ten years to replace another broken bird. The fact is that NOAA and Commerce knew this and have been playing the budget game and spending like drunken sailors. The fact is that some of the staff, according to press reports, seem to like not just the behind the scenes game, rather than being up front with the public. But they don't like hands on people either. What the heck its only our money that all sides are playing with.

So here is my final and only political posting reply. Bill Proenza resigned yesterday as Director and has been temporarily re-assigned. "Temporarily re-assigned"? Ed Rappaport the Deputy Director has been temporarily selected as the new acting Chief. The kinder, gentler chief, I suppose.

Now lets really get down to the facts and have the Office of Inspector General for the US Commerce Department look into all of this and see who is really at fault for here for what? Like I said, what the heck its only our money and I will add, our lives!

Other than that, its time to stop the nonsense now that NOAA, Commerce and "some" of the staff have their boy in slot and get back to work before we have another Katrina and Rita hit the US and NOAA mimic FEMA.

One last thing, who is steering the Congressional Oversight Committee on Commerce? There are some things just as important as, Paris Hilton, Scooter (Convicted) Libby, putting up or not puting up (Berlin) walls along our southern boarder and giving illegal folks a free American pass.

Sheesh, sometimes praying for a hurricane to strike so that everyone can focus on something important sounds like a better deal...

On the Illinois weather side;

Thunderstorms, raced acrossed parts of northern Illinois yesterday some more than 10 miles high, and exploded after a weeks of hot, muggy weather. The powerful storms had gusts that reached a reported 57 mph at Kenosha, 60 mph, south of Algonquin and 50 mph at Romeoville. Parts of McHenry County were drenched by 3” of rain. Moreover, DeKalb County was hit with 50+ m.p.h. gusts, 3/4-inch hail and then a cloudburst which hammered as much as 4.25” of rain. The down pour closed roads, forced the evacuation of one Northern Illinois University dorm, left cars stranded and basements flooded. NWS reported that at the hight of the storm there were more than 2,400 cloud to ground lightning strikes in a single 10 minute period within a 240 miles radius of Chicago.

Update of the s/v Sean Seamour II

Very shortly I will be updating the continuing saga of the s/v Sean Seamour II. I have completed my review of the NHC's report on Subtropical Storm Andrea and am awaiting a response to my questions from the NHC.

RS

Colorado Tornadofest

This is footage from Storm Chaster Roger Hill who on July 3, 2007 in Kit Carson County, captured what he calls Colorado Tornadofest.... Great shots Roger!

Started the day contemplating a chase, but didn’t know for sure if I would. By late morning, strong and rock hard towers were developing south of my house . Just finishing our tours, I was tired, and was headed into town to take care of some mailings. But, seeing the convection south of me, I couldn’t resist. I blasted down I-70 headed for Limon around noon. Shortly after I got on 70, NWS PUB issued a tornado warning for the area southwest of Limon, CO in northeast El Paso county. Radar was pretty clear to see the boundary with various areas of interest along it. However before I even arrived in Limon, the developing cells dissipated.

I decided to go to the Post Office and mail my packages while I was there, and when I came out around 1:30 PM MDT I noticed a rather large area of towering cumulus off to my northeast, northwest of Flagler. More rapidly growing cumulus were developing along the boundary, which was as clear as day. What bothered me was my 91/44 ob at Limon, but noticed much better moisture farther northeast. So, off I went! I headed east bound of I-70 and watched as the towers developed into two young thunderstorms.

About 10 miles west of Flager, and about 5 miles north of I-70, a small tornado developed. This tornado quickly became visible to cloud base with a fairly transparent tube of dirt. It lasted only 4 minutes from 3:14 -3:18 PM MDT. The young thunderstorm farthest west developed a flared base, cork screwed updraft and even a clear slot, so I pushed east to get on it. At 3:21 PM, another debris cloud formed and by 3: 26 PM was completely to could base where a small funnel appeared. By 3:29 PM, the tornado had a rather large pear shaped debris cloud and was simply gorgeous to watch. At 3:31, the next tornado formed just west of it under a new tower. It persisted for 4 minutes before dissipating. Meanwhile the original tornado was continuing to strengthen. At 3:34 PM, a long slender grey funnel appeared just east of the clear slot and at 3:36 PM it touched down. At 3:38 PM two tornadoes criss crossed each other and made for a wild photo op!!! At 3:41 pm the one tornado lifted, while the supercell tornado continued. At 3:45 another tornado formed west of the supercell tornado, and another tornado formed southeast. Quite a wild shot with 3 on the ground at the same time! The farthest west tornado diminished and lifted at 3:49, while the supercell tornado persisted until 3:51. The farther east tornado lifted at 3:53.

Read and see the rest on Rogers site Storm Chase.Net!

RS

Rescue of trapped woman in car

More dramatic video of Coast Guard Air Station San Francisco rescuing a woman trapped in her car during a flood in Northern California.

More Rogue Wave Reports from Cargolaw,

Polish yacht Bloom seriously damaged during a storm off the Russian coast on June 28. German tall ship Alexander von Humboldt rescued the crew, and the Bloom was abandoned at sea. No injuries reported. The Alexander von Humboldt resumed her voyage to Gdansk with the rescued crew. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Thurs. June 28 2007) 238.9-m 36,483-gt 3,450-TEU container vessel M/V Ital Florida (IMO 9308039) homeport Triest built 2007, lost at least three containers in severe seas ebetween June 16 and 19 in the Arabian Sea. The vessel faced waves of 7-10m in height. The ship's deck also suffered storm damage. She arrived in port on June 22 with a substantial port of its containers shifted to starboard and damaged. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Thurs. June 28 2007)

6,469-gt 8,626-dwt 127-m 1977-built M/V DenDen, owned by Eritrean Shipping Lines in Asmara and enroute to Dubai with 8,000 metric tonnes of furnace oil and 24 people, sunk on Tannir Bavi shores in stormy seas on June 23. The vessel was pushed toward the shore. Two confirmed dead, 3 in serious condition and 1 missing. Local fisherman assisted in the rescue of 21 people. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Sun June 24 2007) UPDATE>>> The accident appears to have been the result of an engineer's error, who failed to change engine power at optimum temperature resulting in engine seizure. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Tues. June 26 2007)

UPDATE M/V Pasha Bulker

She's alive and kicking, well maybe not kicking too hard but M/V Pasha Bulker tonight was pulled from her temporary berth on Nobbys Beach, Northern NSW Australia by a couple of heavy haulage tugboats who were'nt going to take no for an answer, she quietly slipped out to sea about 9.45pm AEST into the deeper waters that will allow a serious assessment of her hull to take place before she is dry docked for repair. M/V Pasha Bulker appears to have suffered severe damage to her rudder & propeller but in the great scheme of things this is minor compared to what could have become of this young lady of the sea. Also of concern are some creases down her starboard side which could in all reality spell an end to her all-too-short life. Here's hoping for a full recovery and return to duty for this humble lady.

Bruce Traplin - Australia

Editor Note For July 2 2007:

We will follow with additional details concerning the release of M/V Pasha Bulker from her reef prison -- but for now ths is just a happy miracle! Sadly, there is the prospect that this freedom is only parole -- depending upon the damage sustained.

RS

Pressure builds for storm chief

Seems like the internal struggles within the NHC is still making the news. This article from the Miami Herald.

Weather Notes: We are reviewing the National Hurricane Centers report on Subtropical Storm Andrea and will post it shortly. In the meantime Storm Chaser Roger Hill captured video of 9 tornadoes in Kit Carson County Colorado. As soon as I get a video link I will post it.

Pressure builds for storm chief

The controversial director of the National Hurricane Center came under additional scrutiny as a federal team of experts conducted an unannounced inspection.

BY MARTIN MERZER

mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com

JARED LAZARUS/MIAMI HERALD STAFF

Bill Proenza, National Hurricane Center director, speaks during the Governor's Hurricane Conference at the Broward County Convention Center in Fort Lauderdale.

• Document | Memos describing NOAA's assessment of the hurricane center

A five-member team from Washington, including a lawyer who specializes in personnel matters, conducted a snap inspection Monday of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade to determine if it can fulfill its mission under current management.

The unannounced visit came in the wake of serial controversies stirred by Bill Proenza, the center's new director, who has been sharply critical of his superiors at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Meanwhile, for the first time, one of Proenza's hurricane forecasters expressed public concern about some of Proenza's actions since he took the job in January.

Lixion Avila, a lead forecaster and a center employee for more than 20 years, said he believes Proenza meant well but unintentionally has undermined public faith in hurricane forecasts.

Proenza has complained about budget shortfalls, what he called a multimillion-dollar ''bogus'' NOAA anniversary celebration and the imminent demise of a key satellite.

He has been careful to say that those issues herald future -- rather than current -- problems, but some people have not grasped the distinction, Avila said.

'I go to the Publix supermarket and they know me and they say, `What's going on at the hurricane center? You can't make a forecast anymore,' '' Avila said. ``I have to tell everybody that I can make a good forecast.

''I tell you this because I already told Bill this,'' Avila said. ``And I want it clear that he didn't do any of this out of malice.''

Several others at the hurricane center harbor similar concerns, though another contingent supports Proenza and worries that NOAA is preparing to oust him -- even as the hurricane season is under way.

AWAITS `SUPPORT'

Reached Monday night, Proenza confirmed the surprise inspection, but -- in a departure from his usual practice -- he said little else.

Asked if he believed his job was threatened by the NOAA inspection team and its mission, Proenza said:

``I await their finding and, hopefully, their support.''

The special ''assessment team'' is assigned to determine if the hurricane center can function with its current resources and ''management and organizational structure,'' according to an e-mail received by center employees Monday and obtained by The Miami Herald.

''I have become aware of concerns about [the hurricane center's] ability to meet its mission,'' NOAA head Conrad Lautenbacher Jr., who appointed the team, said in the e-mail.

``I want to ensure the Center's continued readiness for not only this season but future seasons.''

The team arrived at Proenza's door at 10:15 a.m., later met with much of his staff, and also interviewed hurricane forecasters at a separate location at Florida International University, according to several sources.

The inspectors are due back at the hurricane center today, and Avila, who was not in the office Monday, said he expected to be interviewed.

What will he say if asked about Proenza's future?

Avila: 'My answer to them will be, `You never asked me when you put him in, so don't ask me if he should be removed.' ''

Anson Franklin, NOAA's director of communications, confirmed late Monday that the team was in South Florida. He said its report is due in just three weeks.

Among those on the team: John Guenther, an attorney for the U.S. Commerce Department, which controls NOAA. Guenther has considerable experience in personnel matters, according to Commerce Department records.

''The team includes scientists with decades of experience and an attorney as well,'' Franklin said. ``It's always good to have an attorney.''

He declined to respond specifically to questions about Proenza's future.

''We're just trying to identify any issues that need attention,'' he said.

The developments come after months of controversy ignited by Proenza's public attacks on NOAA and the National Weather Service, which runs the Tropical Prediction Center, which runs the hurricane center.

SATELLITE ISSUE

He has been particularly critical of the agency's failure to prepare a replacement for a weather satellite that already is beyond its designed life span. The QuikScat satellite measures wind speeds over distant areas of the ocean.

Proenza and some experts say certain hurricane forecasts could be 16 percent less accurate without that data, though others say similar information might be gathered from other devices.

He was warned last month by the weather service's director that he needed to be more tactful within the bureaucracy and more measured in his public comments.

Best
RS

History of the 4th of July

History of the 4th of July

“Thus may the 4th of July, that glorious and ever memorable day, be celebrated through America, by the sons of freedom, from age to age till time shall be no more. Amen and Amen.”
Virginia Gazette on July 18th, 1777

Schoolchildren in America learn the basic history of the events surrounding the Fourth of July, but the details of this monumental occasion in American history somehow fall through the cracks.

Although July 4th is celebrated as America’s official split from Britain’s rule and the beginning of the American Revolution, the actual series of events show that the process took far longer than a single day.

Taxation without representation! That was the battle cry of the 13 colonies in America who were forced to pay taxes to England’s King George III with no representation in Parliament. As dissatisfaction grew, British troops were sent in to quell any signs of rebellion, and repeated attempts by the colonists to resolve the crisis without war proved fruitless.

The original resolution was introduced by Richard Henry Lee of Virginia on June 7, 1776, and called for the Continental Congress to declare the United States free from British rule.

On June 11, 1776, the colonies’ Second Continental Congress, meeting in Philadelphia, formed a committee with the express purpose of drafting a document that would formally sever their ties with Great Britain. The committee included Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, John Adams, Roger Sherman and Robert R. Livingston. The document was crafted by Jefferson, who was considered the strongest and most eloquent writer (nevertheless, a total of 86 changes were made to his draft!) The final version, the document that we know as the Declaration of Independence was officially adopted by the Continental Congress on July 4, although the resolution that led to the writing of the Declaration was actually approved two days earlier.

The following day, copies of the Declaration of Independence were distributed and, on July 6, The Pennsylvania Evening Post became the first newspaper to print the extraordinary document.

On July 8, 1776, the first public readings of the Declaration were held in Philadelphia’s Independence Square to the ringing of bells and band music. All of this had occurred with some of the delegates to the Congress not even present; New York, for example, did not even vote on the resolution until July 9th. (Did you know that that not a single signature was appended to the Declaration on July 4th. While most of the fifty-six names were in place by early August, one signer, Thomas McKean, did not actually sign the Declaration until 1781.)

One year later, on July 4, 1777, Philadelphia marked Independence Day by adjourning Congress and celebrating with bonfires, bells and fireworks.

The custom eventually spread to other towns both large and small, where the day was marked with processions, oratory, picnics, contests, games, military displays and fireworks. Observations throughout the nation became even more common at the end of the War of 1812 with Great Britain.

On June 24, 1826, Thomas Jefferson sent a letter to Roger C. Weightman, declining an invitation to come to Washington, D.C., to help celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. It was the last letter, Jefferson, who was gravely ill, ever wrote. In it, Jefferson says of the document:

May it be to the world, what I believe it will be ... the signal of arousing men to burst the chains ... and to assume the blessings and security of self-government. That form, which we have substituted, restores the free right to the unbounded exercise of reason and freedom of opinion. All eyes are opened, or opening, to the rights of man. ... For ourselves, let the annual return of this day forever refresh our recollections of these rights, and an undiminished devotion to them.

In 1941, Congress declared July 4 a legal Federal holiday. Today, communities across the nation mark this major midsummer holiday with parades, fireworks, picnics and the playing of the "Star Spangled Banner" and marches by John Philip Sousa.

Remember today is your, Independence Day.... Make the best of it!

Best RS

Blind Man Leads SKYWARN

06/13/2007

Blind man leads Skywarn

By: Ed Kacik , Herald staff

NEWINGTON - Although Roger Jeanfaivre has always had trouble seeing, he remembers being fascinated with lightning and weather when he was growing up. His interest in weather continued even after he lost sight completely at the age of 24. While attending Oak Hill School for the Blind in Hartford, Jeanfaivre became interested in ham radio. After getting his license to operate one, Jeanfaivre would broadcast forecasts he made up."People used to think that I worked for the [National Weather Service]," Jeanfaivre said. Now he does.

People turn to the weather service for information when severe weather strikes. To make sure its information is right, the National Weather Service turns to an organization of amateurs called Skywarn.

"Skywarn provides a very valuable service to the NWS," said Betsey Doane, state section manager for the American Radio Relay League. "We can communicate quickly and directly and provide rapid response to information throughout the state."

Skywarn is made up of independent ham radio operators who are also trained weather spotters. They report wind gusts, hail size, rainfall and cloud formations that signal severe weather.

"Spotters are the people outside during the day. Their weather tools are their ears and their eyes," Jeanfaivre said. "The NWS radar is a few thousand feet up, so they can't see what is happening on the ground."

In 1994, Jeanfaivre became the state Skywarn coordinator and kept responsibility for Hartford and Tolland counties in a 2002 reorganization. He enjoys Skywarn because it allows him to blend two of his favorite hobbies, weather and ham radio, devices that work even when other forms of communication - computers and telephones or cell phones - do not.

Skywarn gathers firsthand reports of severe weather events and feeds them into local forecasts as quickly as it can. Anytime NWS issues a severe weather warning, Skywarn goes to work setting up nets.

"Nets are a gathering of radio amateurs," Jeanfaivre said. "We gather and activate the net and use repeaters ... a setup that takes a little signal and broadcasts it over a wider area which NWS can pick up. Because of the information that we're giving them, NWS can issue a watch or a warning. That's what the public sees on TV or hears over the radio."

During recent thunderstorms, such as one that produced a funnel cloud in Southington and a tornado warning in New Haven County, Jeanfaivre and his team of spotters were at work, verifying the NWS radar images.

Thanks to the evolution of the Internet, NWS can get Skywarn reports in under a minute."In 1994 we weren't tied into the Internet," Jeanfaivre remembered. "With the betterment of the new technology, they can get our reports and it supplements what they see. NWS can link into our system and get the reports as they come in. It's instantaneous." The work is "a joy" for Jeanfaivre.

"It's combining my weather interests with my skills as a communicator," Jeanfaivre said. "It's enjoyable ... We're really not weather forecasters, we're communicators, and it's my job to get the information provided by the spotters to the NWS."

RS

The Cost of Storms 1st Qtr 2007

National Storm Management Reports First Quarter Results

CHICAGO, IL -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 06/28/2007 -- National Storm Management, Inc. (PINKSHEETS: NSMG) reported its first quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2007.

Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 totaled $1.4 million compared to $2.3 million for the same period of 2006. Despite the decline in revenues, income from operations improved to a loss of $777,254 in the first quarter of 2007 compared to $837,714 last year. National Storm posted a net loss of $1.0 million, or $0.01 per share, based on 72.8 million shares, compared to a net loss of $612,824, or $0.01 per share, based on 51.2 million shares for the first quarter 2006 period. During the first quarter of 2007, the company experienced higher interest expense, which increased to $262,246 from $29,078 last year.

"While revenues declined in the 2007 first quarter, we managed to improve income from operations by focusing on cost containment," said Terry Kiefer, president and CEO. "Our operating affiliates have been responding to the significant hail storms that occurred in Lexington, Kentucky, and Akron, Ohio in early June. Operations are currently underway at both locations. We are working diligently to improve revenues for the remainder of the year."

Scott Knoll, chief financial officer, added, "With the completion of our audited fourth quarter and year end results last week, and first quarter financial statements today, the company plans to expeditiously update its registration statement on Form SB-2, which is currently pending review with the SEC to include current financial statements."

About National Storm Management, Inc.

National Storm Management (PINKSHEETS: NSMG) is a national construction company headquartered in Glen Ellyn, Illinois providing storm restoration services in seven states. Its operating affiliates include: ABC Exteriors (Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky); Pinnacle Roofing (Florida and Louisiana); WRS, Inc (Minnesota); and First Class Roofing and Siding (Ohio). The company and its affiliates are recognized by all major insurance companies such as State Farm, Allstate, Farmers and others for storm related claims. The company is a member of the National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA) and the Better Business Bureau. More information is available at www.nationalstorm.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements included in this press release may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, plans and timing for the introduction or enhancement of our services and products, statements about future market conditions, financial performance, plans to update a registration statement with the SEC, and other expectations, intentions and plans contained in this press release that are not historical fact and involve risks and uncertainties. Our expectations regarding future revenues depend upon our ability to develop and supply products and services that meet defined specifications. When used in this press release, the words "plan," "expect," "believe," and similar expressions generally identify forward-looking statements. These statements reflect our current expectations, but actual results could differ materially as a result of many factors, including, but not limited to, severe weather conditions and the physical damage caused by hail storms and hurricanes, fluctuations in interest rates and the resulting impact on financing costs, general economic developments in the states where we do business, availability of labor, materials and supplies, our ability to execute our future growth plans and our ability to timely and accurately prepare quarterly and annual financial statements. Forward-looking statements are made as of this press release and we do not undertake any obligation to provide updates to such statements except where required to so by law.

Continue reading NSM 1st quarter results.

RS