Rescue of trapped woman in car

More dramatic video of Coast Guard Air Station San Francisco rescuing a woman trapped in her car during a flood in Northern California.

More Rogue Wave Reports from Cargolaw,

Polish yacht Bloom seriously damaged during a storm off the Russian coast on June 28. German tall ship Alexander von Humboldt rescued the crew, and the Bloom was abandoned at sea. No injuries reported. The Alexander von Humboldt resumed her voyage to Gdansk with the rescued crew. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Thurs. June 28 2007) 238.9-m 36,483-gt 3,450-TEU container vessel M/V Ital Florida (IMO 9308039) homeport Triest built 2007, lost at least three containers in severe seas ebetween June 16 and 19 in the Arabian Sea. The vessel faced waves of 7-10m in height. The ship's deck also suffered storm damage. She arrived in port on June 22 with a substantial port of its containers shifted to starboard and damaged. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Thurs. June 28 2007)

6,469-gt 8,626-dwt 127-m 1977-built M/V DenDen, owned by Eritrean Shipping Lines in Asmara and enroute to Dubai with 8,000 metric tonnes of furnace oil and 24 people, sunk on Tannir Bavi shores in stormy seas on June 23. The vessel was pushed toward the shore. Two confirmed dead, 3 in serious condition and 1 missing. Local fisherman assisted in the rescue of 21 people. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Sun June 24 2007) UPDATE>>> The accident appears to have been the result of an engineer's error, who failed to change engine power at optimum temperature resulting in engine seizure. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Tues. June 26 2007)

UPDATE M/V Pasha Bulker

She's alive and kicking, well maybe not kicking too hard but M/V Pasha Bulker tonight was pulled from her temporary berth on Nobbys Beach, Northern NSW Australia by a couple of heavy haulage tugboats who were'nt going to take no for an answer, she quietly slipped out to sea about 9.45pm AEST into the deeper waters that will allow a serious assessment of her hull to take place before she is dry docked for repair. M/V Pasha Bulker appears to have suffered severe damage to her rudder & propeller but in the great scheme of things this is minor compared to what could have become of this young lady of the sea. Also of concern are some creases down her starboard side which could in all reality spell an end to her all-too-short life. Here's hoping for a full recovery and return to duty for this humble lady.

Bruce Traplin - Australia

Editor Note For July 2 2007:

We will follow with additional details concerning the release of M/V Pasha Bulker from her reef prison -- but for now ths is just a happy miracle! Sadly, there is the prospect that this freedom is only parole -- depending upon the damage sustained.

RS

Pressure builds for storm chief

Seems like the internal struggles within the NHC is still making the news. This article from the Miami Herald.

Weather Notes: We are reviewing the National Hurricane Centers report on Subtropical Storm Andrea and will post it shortly. In the meantime Storm Chaser Roger Hill captured video of 9 tornadoes in Kit Carson County Colorado. As soon as I get a video link I will post it.

Pressure builds for storm chief

The controversial director of the National Hurricane Center came under additional scrutiny as a federal team of experts conducted an unannounced inspection.

BY MARTIN MERZER

mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com

JARED LAZARUS/MIAMI HERALD STAFF

Bill Proenza, National Hurricane Center director, speaks during the Governor's Hurricane Conference at the Broward County Convention Center in Fort Lauderdale.

• Document | Memos describing NOAA's assessment of the hurricane center

A five-member team from Washington, including a lawyer who specializes in personnel matters, conducted a snap inspection Monday of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade to determine if it can fulfill its mission under current management.

The unannounced visit came in the wake of serial controversies stirred by Bill Proenza, the center's new director, who has been sharply critical of his superiors at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Meanwhile, for the first time, one of Proenza's hurricane forecasters expressed public concern about some of Proenza's actions since he took the job in January.

Lixion Avila, a lead forecaster and a center employee for more than 20 years, said he believes Proenza meant well but unintentionally has undermined public faith in hurricane forecasts.

Proenza has complained about budget shortfalls, what he called a multimillion-dollar ''bogus'' NOAA anniversary celebration and the imminent demise of a key satellite.

He has been careful to say that those issues herald future -- rather than current -- problems, but some people have not grasped the distinction, Avila said.

'I go to the Publix supermarket and they know me and they say, `What's going on at the hurricane center? You can't make a forecast anymore,' '' Avila said. ``I have to tell everybody that I can make a good forecast.

''I tell you this because I already told Bill this,'' Avila said. ``And I want it clear that he didn't do any of this out of malice.''

Several others at the hurricane center harbor similar concerns, though another contingent supports Proenza and worries that NOAA is preparing to oust him -- even as the hurricane season is under way.

AWAITS `SUPPORT'

Reached Monday night, Proenza confirmed the surprise inspection, but -- in a departure from his usual practice -- he said little else.

Asked if he believed his job was threatened by the NOAA inspection team and its mission, Proenza said:

``I await their finding and, hopefully, their support.''

The special ''assessment team'' is assigned to determine if the hurricane center can function with its current resources and ''management and organizational structure,'' according to an e-mail received by center employees Monday and obtained by The Miami Herald.

''I have become aware of concerns about [the hurricane center's] ability to meet its mission,'' NOAA head Conrad Lautenbacher Jr., who appointed the team, said in the e-mail.

``I want to ensure the Center's continued readiness for not only this season but future seasons.''

The team arrived at Proenza's door at 10:15 a.m., later met with much of his staff, and also interviewed hurricane forecasters at a separate location at Florida International University, according to several sources.

The inspectors are due back at the hurricane center today, and Avila, who was not in the office Monday, said he expected to be interviewed.

What will he say if asked about Proenza's future?

Avila: 'My answer to them will be, `You never asked me when you put him in, so don't ask me if he should be removed.' ''

Anson Franklin, NOAA's director of communications, confirmed late Monday that the team was in South Florida. He said its report is due in just three weeks.

Among those on the team: John Guenther, an attorney for the U.S. Commerce Department, which controls NOAA. Guenther has considerable experience in personnel matters, according to Commerce Department records.

''The team includes scientists with decades of experience and an attorney as well,'' Franklin said. ``It's always good to have an attorney.''

He declined to respond specifically to questions about Proenza's future.

''We're just trying to identify any issues that need attention,'' he said.

The developments come after months of controversy ignited by Proenza's public attacks on NOAA and the National Weather Service, which runs the Tropical Prediction Center, which runs the hurricane center.

SATELLITE ISSUE

He has been particularly critical of the agency's failure to prepare a replacement for a weather satellite that already is beyond its designed life span. The QuikScat satellite measures wind speeds over distant areas of the ocean.

Proenza and some experts say certain hurricane forecasts could be 16 percent less accurate without that data, though others say similar information might be gathered from other devices.

He was warned last month by the weather service's director that he needed to be more tactful within the bureaucracy and more measured in his public comments.

Best
RS

History of the 4th of July

History of the 4th of July

“Thus may the 4th of July, that glorious and ever memorable day, be celebrated through America, by the sons of freedom, from age to age till time shall be no more. Amen and Amen.”
Virginia Gazette on July 18th, 1777

Schoolchildren in America learn the basic history of the events surrounding the Fourth of July, but the details of this monumental occasion in American history somehow fall through the cracks.

Although July 4th is celebrated as America’s official split from Britain’s rule and the beginning of the American Revolution, the actual series of events show that the process took far longer than a single day.

Taxation without representation! That was the battle cry of the 13 colonies in America who were forced to pay taxes to England’s King George III with no representation in Parliament. As dissatisfaction grew, British troops were sent in to quell any signs of rebellion, and repeated attempts by the colonists to resolve the crisis without war proved fruitless.

The original resolution was introduced by Richard Henry Lee of Virginia on June 7, 1776, and called for the Continental Congress to declare the United States free from British rule.

On June 11, 1776, the colonies’ Second Continental Congress, meeting in Philadelphia, formed a committee with the express purpose of drafting a document that would formally sever their ties with Great Britain. The committee included Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, John Adams, Roger Sherman and Robert R. Livingston. The document was crafted by Jefferson, who was considered the strongest and most eloquent writer (nevertheless, a total of 86 changes were made to his draft!) The final version, the document that we know as the Declaration of Independence was officially adopted by the Continental Congress on July 4, although the resolution that led to the writing of the Declaration was actually approved two days earlier.

The following day, copies of the Declaration of Independence were distributed and, on July 6, The Pennsylvania Evening Post became the first newspaper to print the extraordinary document.

On July 8, 1776, the first public readings of the Declaration were held in Philadelphia’s Independence Square to the ringing of bells and band music. All of this had occurred with some of the delegates to the Congress not even present; New York, for example, did not even vote on the resolution until July 9th. (Did you know that that not a single signature was appended to the Declaration on July 4th. While most of the fifty-six names were in place by early August, one signer, Thomas McKean, did not actually sign the Declaration until 1781.)

One year later, on July 4, 1777, Philadelphia marked Independence Day by adjourning Congress and celebrating with bonfires, bells and fireworks.

The custom eventually spread to other towns both large and small, where the day was marked with processions, oratory, picnics, contests, games, military displays and fireworks. Observations throughout the nation became even more common at the end of the War of 1812 with Great Britain.

On June 24, 1826, Thomas Jefferson sent a letter to Roger C. Weightman, declining an invitation to come to Washington, D.C., to help celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. It was the last letter, Jefferson, who was gravely ill, ever wrote. In it, Jefferson says of the document:

May it be to the world, what I believe it will be ... the signal of arousing men to burst the chains ... and to assume the blessings and security of self-government. That form, which we have substituted, restores the free right to the unbounded exercise of reason and freedom of opinion. All eyes are opened, or opening, to the rights of man. ... For ourselves, let the annual return of this day forever refresh our recollections of these rights, and an undiminished devotion to them.

In 1941, Congress declared July 4 a legal Federal holiday. Today, communities across the nation mark this major midsummer holiday with parades, fireworks, picnics and the playing of the "Star Spangled Banner" and marches by John Philip Sousa.

Remember today is your, Independence Day.... Make the best of it!

Best RS

Blind Man Leads SKYWARN

06/13/2007

Blind man leads Skywarn

By: Ed Kacik , Herald staff

NEWINGTON - Although Roger Jeanfaivre has always had trouble seeing, he remembers being fascinated with lightning and weather when he was growing up. His interest in weather continued even after he lost sight completely at the age of 24. While attending Oak Hill School for the Blind in Hartford, Jeanfaivre became interested in ham radio. After getting his license to operate one, Jeanfaivre would broadcast forecasts he made up."People used to think that I worked for the [National Weather Service]," Jeanfaivre said. Now he does.

People turn to the weather service for information when severe weather strikes. To make sure its information is right, the National Weather Service turns to an organization of amateurs called Skywarn.

"Skywarn provides a very valuable service to the NWS," said Betsey Doane, state section manager for the American Radio Relay League. "We can communicate quickly and directly and provide rapid response to information throughout the state."

Skywarn is made up of independent ham radio operators who are also trained weather spotters. They report wind gusts, hail size, rainfall and cloud formations that signal severe weather.

"Spotters are the people outside during the day. Their weather tools are their ears and their eyes," Jeanfaivre said. "The NWS radar is a few thousand feet up, so they can't see what is happening on the ground."

In 1994, Jeanfaivre became the state Skywarn coordinator and kept responsibility for Hartford and Tolland counties in a 2002 reorganization. He enjoys Skywarn because it allows him to blend two of his favorite hobbies, weather and ham radio, devices that work even when other forms of communication - computers and telephones or cell phones - do not.

Skywarn gathers firsthand reports of severe weather events and feeds them into local forecasts as quickly as it can. Anytime NWS issues a severe weather warning, Skywarn goes to work setting up nets.

"Nets are a gathering of radio amateurs," Jeanfaivre said. "We gather and activate the net and use repeaters ... a setup that takes a little signal and broadcasts it over a wider area which NWS can pick up. Because of the information that we're giving them, NWS can issue a watch or a warning. That's what the public sees on TV or hears over the radio."

During recent thunderstorms, such as one that produced a funnel cloud in Southington and a tornado warning in New Haven County, Jeanfaivre and his team of spotters were at work, verifying the NWS radar images.

Thanks to the evolution of the Internet, NWS can get Skywarn reports in under a minute."In 1994 we weren't tied into the Internet," Jeanfaivre remembered. "With the betterment of the new technology, they can get our reports and it supplements what they see. NWS can link into our system and get the reports as they come in. It's instantaneous." The work is "a joy" for Jeanfaivre.

"It's combining my weather interests with my skills as a communicator," Jeanfaivre said. "It's enjoyable ... We're really not weather forecasters, we're communicators, and it's my job to get the information provided by the spotters to the NWS."

RS

The Cost of Storms 1st Qtr 2007

National Storm Management Reports First Quarter Results

CHICAGO, IL -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 06/28/2007 -- National Storm Management, Inc. (PINKSHEETS: NSMG) reported its first quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2007.

Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 totaled $1.4 million compared to $2.3 million for the same period of 2006. Despite the decline in revenues, income from operations improved to a loss of $777,254 in the first quarter of 2007 compared to $837,714 last year. National Storm posted a net loss of $1.0 million, or $0.01 per share, based on 72.8 million shares, compared to a net loss of $612,824, or $0.01 per share, based on 51.2 million shares for the first quarter 2006 period. During the first quarter of 2007, the company experienced higher interest expense, which increased to $262,246 from $29,078 last year.

"While revenues declined in the 2007 first quarter, we managed to improve income from operations by focusing on cost containment," said Terry Kiefer, president and CEO. "Our operating affiliates have been responding to the significant hail storms that occurred in Lexington, Kentucky, and Akron, Ohio in early June. Operations are currently underway at both locations. We are working diligently to improve revenues for the remainder of the year."

Scott Knoll, chief financial officer, added, "With the completion of our audited fourth quarter and year end results last week, and first quarter financial statements today, the company plans to expeditiously update its registration statement on Form SB-2, which is currently pending review with the SEC to include current financial statements."

About National Storm Management, Inc.

National Storm Management (PINKSHEETS: NSMG) is a national construction company headquartered in Glen Ellyn, Illinois providing storm restoration services in seven states. Its operating affiliates include: ABC Exteriors (Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky); Pinnacle Roofing (Florida and Louisiana); WRS, Inc (Minnesota); and First Class Roofing and Siding (Ohio). The company and its affiliates are recognized by all major insurance companies such as State Farm, Allstate, Farmers and others for storm related claims. The company is a member of the National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA) and the Better Business Bureau. More information is available at www.nationalstorm.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements included in this press release may constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, plans and timing for the introduction or enhancement of our services and products, statements about future market conditions, financial performance, plans to update a registration statement with the SEC, and other expectations, intentions and plans contained in this press release that are not historical fact and involve risks and uncertainties. Our expectations regarding future revenues depend upon our ability to develop and supply products and services that meet defined specifications. When used in this press release, the words "plan," "expect," "believe," and similar expressions generally identify forward-looking statements. These statements reflect our current expectations, but actual results could differ materially as a result of many factors, including, but not limited to, severe weather conditions and the physical damage caused by hail storms and hurricanes, fluctuations in interest rates and the resulting impact on financing costs, general economic developments in the states where we do business, availability of labor, materials and supplies, our ability to execute our future growth plans and our ability to timely and accurately prepare quarterly and annual financial statements. Forward-looking statements are made as of this press release and we do not undertake any obligation to provide updates to such statements except where required to so by law.

Continue reading NSM 1st quarter results.

RS

A Little To Close

These storm chasers really pushed the edge of the envelop by getting way to close to this Oklahoma tornado. But in doing so, they did capture some really fascinating video. However unless there is a scientific purpose in getting close to something as unpredictable as a tornado. The footage is just not worth the risk. These chasers are indeed very lucky.

Weather Notes...

This week Central Region NWS offices started an experimental service called the Weather Story. It’s a graphical forecast product that highlights the most important forecast event for the upcoming 7 days. Usually there is going to be a short write up with each Weather Story. Here is a link to the Twin Cities office Weather Story. To see your local office, just add the 3 letter identifier to the end of the string. Enjoy!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lot

Maritime Notes...

New Zealand – update on listing bulker

Maritime New Zealand issued a media release providing an update on the status of the listing bulk carrier anchored in Tasman Bay. Progress to date has steady, but slow. The list has been reduced to 11 degrees. It may take up to 10 days to fully dewater the cargo holds. (6/27/07).

Chaser Pix's

Great pix's from Matt Ziebell!

http://limetap.com/sch/07summary.html

Here's Matt's rundown of where he chased and what he observed:

June 21: Black Hills supercell
June 22: Black Hills brief rotating cell and funnel
June 23: SK and MB supercells and tornado
June 24: Southeast MT supercell
June 25: Northeast WY supercell

Have A Great Weekend!
RS

The Taharoa Express

As we wait for the National Hurricane Center's report on Subtropical Storm Andrea. Another ship who suffered at the hands of mother nature was reported finally anchored at Tasman Bay, New Zealand.

The 902 foot NKK owned Taharoa Express (formerly known as the "Stellar Cape") a 140,000DWT ore/bulk carrier which was converted into a slurried iron sand carrier was listing some 14 degrees after its load of iron sand shifted while in rough sea about 42 nautical miles (78km) south west of Cape Egmont. Steady progress was being made to right the listing vessel as of this report. Since yesterday, the 25 member crew have been using pumps flown in from nearby Nelson to remove excess water contained in the vessel’s cargo holds. The water is used to help pump in the iron sand and is a normal part of loading operations. Additional pumps may be brought in to help speed up the process.

The pumping operation has so far resulted in the vessel’s list being reduced from 14 degrees yesterday to 12 degrees today.

As we have seen in video's posted on this blog of ship's encountering heavy seas. Wave actions can and do have mechanical effects on not just the ship's general arrangements and superstructure but especially on its cargo. Stress factors associated with these type of wave actions can do some great damage to large ships.

Now imagine a 44 foot sail boat encountering these tyoes of seas.

RS

When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!

Lightning Safety Week:
June 24-30, 2007

Check this site for handouts, indoor safety and outdoor risk reduction tips, medical facts, history, survivor stories, photos, teacher tools and more. Our new kids page now includes a Leon the Lion Safety coloring sheet.

Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena— lightning. Safeguarding U.S. residents from dangerous lightning is the goal of this Website. The campaign is designed to lower lightning death and injury rates and America's vulnerability to one of nature's deadliest hazards.

In the United States, an average of 62 people are killed each year by lightning. In 2006, there were 47 confirmed deaths and 246 confirmed injuries. The injury number is likely far lower than it should be because many people do not seek help or doctors do not record it as a lightning injury.

People struck by lightning suffer from a variety of long-term, debilitating symptoms, including memory loss, attention deficits, sleep disorders, numbness, dizziness, stiffness in joints, irritability, fatigue, weakness, muscle spasms, depression, and an inability to sit for long.

Lightning is a serious danger. Through this site we hope you'll learn more about lightning risks and how to protect yourself, your loved ones and your belongings. As a start, get an overview of Lightning Safety or stop by our comprehensive page of handouts, brochures, links and more.

NOAA Satellites ready for Hurricanes

NOAA SATELLITES READY FOR ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON

June 18, 2007 — With an active Atlantic hurricane season expected for 2007, NOAA’s high-powered satellites are ready to send forecasters a steady stream of crisp, detailed images, and other important data, of any storm that develops in the Western Hemisphere.

The NOAA Satellite and Information Service operates a fleet of spacecraft that monitor the weather, including conditions that trigger hurricanes and the tornadoes and floods that accompany them. “These satellites often provide us with the first indication that a storm is forming and they play an important role in predicting where a storm will go,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator for NESDIS.

NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), which operate from a fixed position 22,500 miles above the east and west coasts, take constant images of hurricanes and track their movement. Additionally, NOAA’s Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES), which operate 530 miles over the Earth, orbiting the entire planet, keep an eye on storms, while providing data — including sea-surface temperatures, which is incorporated into global weather models.

Satellite data is used in combination with hurricane buoys, hurricane hunter aircraft, air-borne Doppler radar, dropwindsondes, and the experience and skill of NOAA’s forecasters to predict tropical storm impacts.

“Our satellites are in good health and are closely watching the oceans for any hint of tropical storm activity,” Kicza added. “Our top priority is to provide the satellite images and data to NOAA meteorologists, who make the forecasts that enable emergency managers to help people get out of harm’s way.”

NOAA Satellite Fleet
NOAA currently has four geostationary spacecraft: two are in operation, one is stored in orbit as a ready backup and one satellite currently used to provide better coverage of South America as part of the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Watch Global Observing System. GOES are the nation’s primary hurricane spotters from space.

NOAA also has five polar-orbiting satellites – two that are operational, including a spacecraft in a joint venture with Europe, with three more serving as backup satellites. POES are key in monitoring changes in the atmosphere and ocean temperatures and climate phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña.

“We have an elaborate system in place, including back-up satellites and partnerships with other nations, that would handle any hiccups and keep monitoring storms,” said Kathy Kelly, director of the NOAA Satellite Operations and Satellite Data Processing and Distribution.

Additionally, NESDIS processes data from other spacecraft, such as NASA’s research QuikSCAT satellite, which is used in hurricane forecast models. “Our forecasters are using research tools like QuickSCAT to develop enhanced forecast models,” said Mary Glackin, acting director of the NOAA National Weather Service. “NOAA’s satellites are a key component to accurate hurricane forecasts, but our focus on next-generation technologies will ensure continued to improvement in hurricane services.”

Just last week, NOAA officially dedicated a new home for its around-the-clock environmental satellite operations. The NOAA Satellite Operations Facility, in Suitland, Md., supports a range of high-technology equipment, including 16 antennas that control more than $4.7 billion worth of environmental satellites. Each day, NSOF processes more than 16 billion bytes of environmental data from NOAA’s satellites and the Department of Defense’s Meteorological Satellite Program.

NOAA Satellites Show Moxie
During the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, when a record 28 storms developed, NOAA satellites sent a total of 11,736 images of these cyclones to forecasters at the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla. In the relatively quiet 2006 hurricane season, the number of images was 7,380. (Click NOAA image for a larger view of Hurricane Katrina on Aug. 28, 2005, at 9:15 a.m. EDT - Category 5 strength. Also shown is the NOAA GOES-12 satellite, which monitors Atlantic hurricanes. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

In New Orleans, ground zero for Hurricane Katrina, the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, GOES sent 716 images of the storm between August 26 and August 30.

“During Katrina, nothing could have been more helpful to forecasters than [NOAA] GOES imagery,” said Paul Trotter, meteorologist in charge of the NOAA National Weather Service forecast office in Slidell, La. “In areas where observations were limited, satellite imagery of the southwest movement of Katrina, once it began to move through and exit Florida, gave tremendous lead time of the eventual curve toward southeast Louisiana.”

Future NOAA Satellites
NOAA and NASA are planning the next generation of satellites that will strengthen the prediction and tracking of hurricanes. Known as the GOES-R series, these next generation satellites are expected to bring key improvements in data for predicting severe weather, including hurricanes. GOES-R data will result in longer watch and warning lead times and a better definition of the threat area for hurricanes and other dangerous weather.

“Since the first GOES satellite began monitoring the weather in 1975, we have never stopped trying to make this system better,” Kicza said.

Also planned for the future is the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System, or NPOESS. This satellite system also will bring improved data and imagery for better weather forecasts, severe-weather monitoring and detection of climate change.

Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Satellite and Information Service

NOAA National Weather Service

NOAA National Hurricane Center

More Rogue Waves & Sean Seamour II Update

As we await the National Hurricane Centers report on Subtropical Storm Andrea due out this week. The above video is of a ferry encountering heavy seas.

We have a unofficial initial assessment from the NHC regarding the heavy seas encountered by the s/v Sean Seamour II. This was part of an email exchange to me by the NHC, who also asked for other details on the Seamour's location so that there Marine Branch could take a closer look;

"At first glance, buoy 41001 (located approximately 150 nm east of Cape Hatteras at 34.68N 72.66W) is closest to the ships and also reported the highest seas during this event. The highest reported significant wave height was 12.4 meters (40.7ft) with a 14 sec period early on May 07. The typical rule of thumb and theoretical bound using statistical methods would imply the potential for an individual wave to be as high as 2 times the significant wave height or roughly 82 ft. However, a somewhat higher wave seems possible in this case since, in deep water, wave height is typically bounded by the steepness. That is, individual waves will begin to break when their height/length ration exceeds 1/7.

Accordingly to my back of the envelope calculations, that would yield a *potential individual *wave height even higher than 82 ft. Additionally, the 3 ships appeared to be in close proximity to the Gulf Stream. In this case, the wind was opposing (or going in the opposite direction) of the Gulf Stream. Such a condition is known to produce extremely large seas which can exceed values from wave equations alone. Additionally, such conditions also tend to produce very steep seas (very hazardous condition). In fact, many of the accounts of "rogue waves" seem to originate in areas where the wind bucks a strong current. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the worst conditions (highest actual significant wave height) was sampled by this buoy. So it is easy to imagine conditions even worse than what I have outlined above. Still, I suspect ~80 ft is more than enough to capsize a sail boat and inflict serious damage to a cargo ship.

Caveat: Since the NHC is not officially declaring the system subtropical until early May 9, these conditions did not arise during Andrea, but rather the pre-Andrea extratropical cyclone!

I guess the question to ask is whether an 80 ft wave is capable of the damage we saw in Andrea. If the damage can be explained by such a wave, calling it a "freak/rogue" wave might not be the best term. Such a term implies a wave which defies science and thus cannot be explained. In this case, it seems to me that the conditions necessary to produce such damage can be explained. The 3 vessels, unfortunately, found themselves in near optimal conditions for
extremely large wave production."

Fascinating and we await the NHC report.

RS

Wind, Swell and Rouge Waves

Wind, Swell and Rouge Waves

The wind not only produces currents, it creates waves. As wind blows across the smooth water surface, the friction or drag between the air and the water tends to stretch the surface. As waves form, the surface becomes rougher and it is easier for the wind to grip the water surface and intensify the waves.

Take it to the MAX! Anatomy of a Wave

In Oceanography and Seamanship, William G. Van Dorn provided an example of what the wave heights would be if a steady 33 mph (30 knot) wind blew for 24 hours over a fetch of 340 miles. 10% of all waves will be less than 3.6 ft (1 m). The most frequent wave height will be 8½ ft (2½ m). The average wave height will be 11 ft (3 m). The significant wave height will be 17 ft (5 m). 10% of all waves will be higher than 18 ft (5 m). The average wave height of the highest 10% of all waves will be 22 ft (7 m). A 5% chance of encountering a single wave higher than 35 ft (11 m) among every 200 waves that pass in about 30 minutes. A 5% chance of encountering a single wave higher than 40 ft (12 m) among every 2,600 waves that pass in about five hours.

How big wind waves get depends on three things:

• Wind strength. The wind must be moving faster than the wave crests for energy to be transferred.
• Wind duration. Strong wind that does not blow for a long period will not generate large waves.
• Fetch. This is the uninterrupted distance over which the wind blows without significant change in direction.

Storms of equal size can generate much larger waves in the open Pacific Ocean as compared to the other oceans due to the long open distance of water.

After the wind begins to blow for a while, the waves get higher from trough to crest, and both the wave length and period become longer. As the wind continues or strengthens, the water first forms whitecaps and eventually the waves start to break. This is referred to as a fully developed sea.

Take it to the MAX! Beaufort Wind Scale

"Stolt Surf", North Pacific 1977 The following images are from the chemical tanker ship "Stolt Surf", built in 1970, caught in a large storm in the North Pacific Ocean. The largest waves of the storm broke over the Bridge, more than 72 feet (22 meter) high. Images © Karsten Petersen. Used by permission. Going into the trough of a wave Riding up to the next peak Nearly at the crest Topping the crest...just to have another huge wave behind it.

The waves in a fully developed sea outrun the storm that creates them, lengthening and reducing in height in the process. There are called swell waves. Swells organize into groups smooth and regular in appearance. They are able to travel thousands of miles unchanged in height and period.

The longer the wave, the faster it travels. As waves leave a storm area, they tend to sort themselves out with the long ones ahead of the short ones, and the energy is simultaneously spread out over an increasingly larger area. As the waves close in on the coast, they begin to feel the bottom and their direction of travel might change due to the contour of the land. Eventually, the waves run ashore, increasing in height up to 1.5 times their height in deep water, finally breaking up as surf.

There are many sailor tales of "rogue waves", "freak waves", "three sisters" and other "killer waves". Properly called "extreme storm waves" these tales were ridiculed and mariners were accused of using them as an excuse to cover their own mistakes in wrecks. Rogue waves are simply unusually large waves appearing in a set of smaller waves.

Some of the characteristics of rogue waves are:

• their height is greater than twice the size of surrounding waves,
• they often come unexpectedly from directions other than prevailing wind and waves, and
• they are unpredictable.

Most reports of extreme storm waves say they look like "walls of water," and are seen as steep-sided with unusually deep troughs. The USS Ramapo reported one such wave with a height of 112 feet in the Pacific in 1933. Another report of a freak wave occurred with it struck the Queen Mary amidships, south of Newfoundland, at the end of World War II, rolling her to within a degree or two of capsizing.

Just recently, a series of three waves, about 70 foot tall, crashed down on the Norwegian Dawn cruise ship in April 2005. The average waves that day were 25 to 30 feet high before these monster waves struck. The watch officer on the Norwegian Dawn stated that all the waves were very large, and that all were roughly the same height. On the third wave, he said, the ship's bow took "heavy green seas", which cascaded directly over the bow and struck the forward part of the vessel’s superstructure.

What causes these enormous waves? Generally they form because of swells, while traveling across the ocean, do so at different speeds and directions. As these swells pass through one another their crests, troughs, and lengths happen to coincide and reinforce each other, combining to form unusually large waves that tower then disappear. If the swell are travelling in the same direction, these mountainous waves may last for several minutes before subsiding.

It is very seldom that huge waves over 65 feet (20 meters) are developed and normally sailors do not even see them, because ships nowadays will try to avoid such conditions by altering course before the storm hits. But they do occur.

Rogue Wave traps four hikers

P.C. Lui of Freaque Waves, has a couple of good articles om rogue waves.

Rogue wave traps 4 hikers
When I first saw this title, I was a little puzzled. How does freaque wave got to do with hikers? Well, this article in the Seattle Times by Maureen O'Hagan tells what had happened to a group of hikers:

The group had set out Sunday for a weeklong hike on the West Coast Trail on Vancouver Island. The trail, about 47 miles long, is as beautiful as it is rugged. There is no road access. And with parts of the trail hugging the ocean, hikers must time their forays to avoid the dangers of high tide. No matter the time of day, the waves crash explosively. The area is known as the Graveyard of the Pacific because of the ships that have sunk there.

So with parts of the trail hugging the ocean, they carefully tried to avoid high tide, can freaque waves to be far behind? It almost sounds like an action movie script, but it's beyond most of the Hollywood script writers imagination:

The rest of Paul's post can be found here Rogue wave traps 4 hikers


RS

Tornado's Destruction From Space

Image : A tornado left this scar in a forested region of Wisconsin on June 7, 2007. Image Credit: NASA's MODIS Rapid Response.

A series of tornadoes ripped across central and northeast Wisconsin on the evening of June 7, 2007, leaving a path of destruction visible from space.

This image of the track of one of those tornadoes was captured on June 9, 2007, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. The tornado track is the diagonal line running through the dark green, forested area, just left of the center of the image.

The path torn through this densely wooded area stands out quite clearly in the satellite image, as tens of thousands of trees were leveled by the devastating funnel cloud.

One of the tornadoes to strike the area was given an F-3 rating by the National Weather Service, classifying it as a “strong” tornado that causes severe damage and has wind speeds between 158 and 206 miles per hour.

For more information on the Wisconsin tornadoes:

Earth Observatory: Natural Hazards
For more information on NASA's MODIS Rapid Response:

http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.php

RS

The rescue of the M/V Pusha Bulker

Here is another recent story of a ship running aground off Nobbys Beach (near the extrance to Newcastle Harbour in Australia) after getting into trouble, during gale-forced winds on 8 June 2007.

The m/v Pusha Bulker, owned by Lauritzen Bulkers, is a 738 foot/ 225/m, 76,741 mt, Panama Flagged Bulkcarrier, hauling coal, built in 2006 by Sasebo Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. The Salvage operations is being conducted by s Svitzer Salvage, a division of A.P. Moller-Maersk. It was reported and determined that the ship's hull was breached by the continued pounding of the waves.

As of this writing, the vessel could be stranded until late June and until tides and seas are favorable. Salvage continues, with the 22 member salvage team, stabilizing the ship, preparing it for re-float and transfering fuel and oil to tanks that are higher and not impacted by the waves.

There are some 20 marine and environmental agencies involved in the operations.

As you can see in the video, people lined the beaches in heavy rain and gale-force winds as the rescue operations retrieved the 22 member Filipino crew. Now just imagine the force of this storm that caused this vessel onto the beach.

Here ia another amazing photo, ( Courtesy of Cargolaw ).




This town will never forget the m/v Pusha Bulker. We will keep you posted....

RS

Nine Rescue's In One Day

I have been writing about the s/v Sean Seamour II and its crew that were rescued on 7 May 2007 by the USCG. But this was not the only rescue for USCG Elizabeth City, where they had one C-130 and 3 HH-60 Jay Hawks operational. There were actually six other boaters all rescued on the same day. In total there were nine rescues on this day for Air Station Elizabeth City and its USCG HH-60 Jay Hawk helicopter crews.

The way Subtropical Storm Andrea came in and caught everyone off guard I am surprised that more boaters were not caught in the storm . However, the s/v Flying Colours and its crew are still missing.

This video (USCG Imagery) is of the rescue of the three crew members of s/v Seeker rescued at 0730hrs, 7 May 2007, in the vicinity of Diamond Shoals, N.C.

On the Illinois wether front, its been pretty boring. But the weather has been just great! You know that the weather has to be pretty boring when the main talk on the storm chaser list-serves is "food" ...

Though Storm Chaser Matt Ziebell got some great shots of a super cell and shelf cloud approaching his offiice. Shortly after this photo was taken the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) measured an outflow at 62MPH. No tornado though.... Great Shot Matt!




UPDATE 19 June 2007

Received an email from Matt Ziebell correcting my post on the 62mph outflow. Matt goes on to say the 62mph gust was inflow straight out of the east! When the shelf cloud passed, the outflow was around 70mph from the west. There were several large tree limbs that came down before the storm even hit.

NWS Glasgow MT

Best
RS

The Rescue of the s/v Sean Seamour II

I just can't get over the rescue operations that the US Coast Guard performed recovering the crew of the s/v Sean Seamout II. Just to recap, On or around 7 May 2007 the s/v Sean Seamour II was struck by a what is believed to be a "freak wave", during Subtropical Storm Andrea. The sailboat was broadsided by a wave that did an great deal of damage to the boat and sent the crew flying about the cabin doing 360's and causing its Master to break his ribs. The wave caused the sailboat to immediately list starboard.

After a harrowing time riding the waves a EPIRB signal was received by the USCG and a C-130 over fight located the wave riding crew. A J-Hawk Helicopter was dispatched to the area and launched a rescue swimmer, who injured his back during the insertion into the water, when a wave dropped from beneath him and he dropped some 50 to 70 feet. All of this done in 50 to 70 foot seas, with winds estimated at 80 knots.

This video was taken by the rescue helicopter of part of the rescue and though short its just amazing. Again the USCG Rescue Crew did an outstanding job!

I am adding a recent news article on the Gloucester-based dragger Grace Marie and its encounter with a rogue wave on 27 April 2007. Note the damage done to the steel hull by a wave. I have also added the latest reports (from cargolaw) on recent ships encountering rogue or freak waves. Again note the damage and injuries done to these vessels and crew by a wave.

• Unidentified 32-foot fishing vessel, with crew of 3, was struck by wave causing damage to the vessel's bow and subsequent flooding approximately 45 miles east of Port Aransas, TX. A distress call was received by the crew of an offshore supply vessel who then relayed the message to the Coast Guard. A Coast Guard rescue swimmer and the boat's crew were able to pump water out of the vessel before it sank. A Coast Guard cutter escorted the vessel to Port Aransas for repairs. No injuries were reported. (Tues. June 5 2007)

• High-speed 279-ton hydrofoil ferry Seven Island Ai , cruising 40 knots from Izu-Oshima Island to Kurihama Port with 207 passengers, struck by rogue wave off Kanagawa Prefecture, approximately 13 kilometers south of Jogashina Island in Miura, on May 19, causing smashed windows , significant flooding and 27 injuries. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Sat. May 26 2007)

• Passenger M/V Enez Sun, with 136 passengers & 7 crew -- struck by a massive wave off the coast of Brittany in western France May 19 -- 1 man & 1 woman swept off the bridge into the sea near Sein Island. The man broke his arm. They were fished alive out of the water by a trawler that had been alerted to the accident by the coast guard & airlifted to a hospital in the Brittany port of Brest. "We were on the deck, we were looking at the dolphins. We were very close to the island when a huge wave hit us from the side. The seats were ripped loose. I was very afraid," said a passenger. From our Sr. Correspondent Tim Schwabedissen (Mon. May 21 2007)

Previous Posts;
Cheating Death On The High Seas
The s/v Sean Seamour II & The Hatteras Trench
High Sea's Update On Sean Seamour II
The Story of the Sailing Vessel Sean Seamour II


RS

QuikScat In Trouble?

The QuikScat Weather Satellite is reported to be running into problems and could fail at any moment. This would indeed have a major impact on reporting hurricanes, as recently reported by the Associated Press.

History

NASA's Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) was lofted into space at 7:15 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time on Saturday, June 19, 1999 atop a U.S. Air Force Titan II launch vehicle from Space Launch Complex 4 West at California's Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite was launched in a south-southwesterly direction, soaring over the Pacific Ocean at sunset as it ascended into space to achieve an initial elliptical orbit with a maximum altitude of about 800 kilometers (500 miles) above Earth's surface.

Built in a record time of just 12 months, QuikScat provides climatologists, meteorologists and oceanographers with daily, detailed snapshots of the winds swirling above the world's oceans. Labeled as NASA's next "El Niño watcher," QuikSCAT is used to better understand global weather abnormalities and to generally improve weather forecasting.

QuikSCAT's predecessor, NSCAT (NASA Scatterometer), a microwave radar scatterometer, measured near-surface wind vectors (both speed and direction) over the global oceans starting in August 1996. The QuikSCAT mission is a "quick recovery" mission to fill the gap created by the loss of data from NSCAT, after the satellite it was flying on lost power in June 1997.

Winds play a major role in every aspect of weather on Earth. They directly affect the turbulent exchanges of heat, moisture and greenhouse gases between Earth's atmosphere and the ocean. To better understand their impact on oceans and improve weather forecasting, QuikSCAT carries a state-of-the-art radar instrument called a scatterometer for a two-year science mission. Known as "SeaWinds," this scatterometer operates by transmitting high-frequency microwave pulses to the ocean surface and measuring the "backscattered" or echoed radar pulses bounced back to the satellite. The instrument senses ripples caused by winds near the ocean's surface, from which scientists can compute the winds' speed and direction. The instruments can acquire hundreds of times more observations of surface wind velocity each day than can ships and buoys, and are the only remote-sensing systems able to provide continuous, accurate and high-resolution measurements of both wind speeds and direction regardless of weather conditions.

SeaWinds uses a rotating dish antenna with two spot beams that sweep in a circular pattern. The antenna radiates microwave pulses at a frequency of 13.4 gigahertz across broad regions on Earth's surface. The instrument is currently collecting data over ocean, land, and ice in a continuous, 1,800-kilometer-wide band, making approximately 400,000 measurements and covering 90% of Earth's surface each day.

The Problem

Last year, the satellite suffered a major set back with the failure of a primary transmitter used to send data to Earth about every 90 minutes. It appears that there was a software glitch that seems to happen more than NASA likes. Now QuikScat is operating on back up transmitters that could last for years or fail without warning. With the only back up being a European satellite with similar technology but with limited capabilities. There would be about a 16% loss of information. However, forecasters will still be able to predict a hurricane and its path, but it could mean evacuations over a wider area than the hurricane center normally orders when it has more precise forecasts.

But the problem does not end there. NASA is having it's semi monthly budget fights and of course we can't forget the never ending internal battles for a new design. Maybe by 2012 we will get a new bird. Maybe? Either that or if QuikScat fails like NSCAT failed and the next Cat 5 takes out another major city, we will have another satellite just as quick as we got QuikScat in the first place.


RS

Flying Through A Thunderstorm

Ever wonder what it feels like flying into a Thunderstorm in a armor-plated airplane? This is a great video (Complements of Storm Chaser Tom Warner) of a T-28 Storm Penetrating Aircraft. This T-28 was retired last year and now resides in a museum in Ashland NE,

Here is a little history on the T-28 Storm Penetrating Aircraft.

T-28 Flies Into History

T-28 History The original concept of a meteorological research aircraft capable of penetrating hailstorms was developed and promoted by Dr. Paul MacCready in the late 1950s. At the time, this was widely regarded as not feasible because of potential danger to pilots and aircraft. The idea of developing a storm penetration aircraft persisted, however, and began to approach reality following Project Hailswath in 1966, when the National Science Foundation provided funds to support a detailed investigation. MacCready commissioned an associate, Robin Williamson, to do the aircraft feasibility study. Williamson considered all aircraft in the military and civilian fleet of the Vietnam War era. All aspects of aircraft operation including survivability, maintainability, costs, and performance were analyzed. Strictly on the basis of performance characteristics, he concluded that the best aircraft for hailstorm penetrations would be a Douglas “Dauntless” dive bomber, a World War II-era combat aircraft. His second choice was a T-28 military trainer, developed in the late 1940s as a high-performance, prop-driven, pre-jet trainer. When costs and maintainability were factored in, however, the T-28 was judged to be the overall top choice. Using the results of Williamson's study, MacCready successfully presented his idea to the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 1967. MacCready's company, Meteorology Research, Incorporated, under contract to the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology Institute of Atmospheric Sciences’ NSF-funded Hailstorm Models Project, acquired and registered a T-28. Williamson Aircraft Co. (headed by Robin Williamson) contracted to outfit the aircraft for hailstorm penetrations. This work began in 1968 and was carried on through 1969. After the modifications, the T-28 was capable of performing hailstorm penetrations to altitudes up to about 25,000 feet, and was able to withstand impacts of hailstones up to 7.5 cm in diameter at 100 m/s relative speed, with minimal damage. Meteorological instrumentation was installed, and the aircraft made test flights during the summer of 1969 at Rapid City, S.D., and Flagstaff, Ariz., to determine its capacity for carrying heavy loads of structural ice. It was found that the aircraft could handle up to an inch of ice with only a relatively small increase in speed to maintain controllability. Since the T-28 was to be used in summer thunderstorms where a layer of warm air would be present between icing zones and the ground, icing was not felt to be a major problem. At this time, the T-28 resides with the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences at South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. The T-28 has participated in summer field programs almost every year from 1970 through 2004. This began with the National Hail Research Experiment in northeast Colorado and continued through projects across North America from Florida to Texas to Alberta, Canada. It even included one two-summer project in Switzerland. The T-28 has provided critical pieces to the puzzle of severe storm development and behavior. Because of its contributions to science, the T-28 will be retired to a place where a national audience can view it, and be inspired by its work and by the ingenuity of those who developed and operated the aircraft for the past 34 years. The Strategic Air and Space Museum was chosen because of its specialized commitment to atmospheric related research.

Enjoy the ride!

Best
RS

The Missing Sail Boat Grendal

There are times in life when communications gets its wires crossed. This is something that happens even when you check with official regulatory agencies, information just gets miss communicated, wires get crossed. As we say in the biz, "Ship Happens". This unfortunately happened to me recently. I have redacted the names of some of the participants in this story that are not in the public domain, because of both privacy issues and lets just say, making the point I am going to make is not worth any more hassles. People just react differently for various reasons and some of them just get involved on a limited basis. I am not known for that. Once I get involved, I get involved, no holds barred, especially with a report of a missing sail boat.

As the story of the missing s/v Grendal first came to me from a sailing boat forum. The posting dated around 8 June 2007, was a strange and not a typical posting from someone searching for a missing boat and person. The party inquiring was asking for any information on the missing sail boat 'Grendal' and its owner Mr. Edward C. Judd, who was sailing from Fiji to Hawaii on or about 15 October 2006 and had not been heard from since. There was no other information posted. The poster requested anyone who knew anything about the Grendal and Mr. Judd to contact him.

We are talking about searching for someone or gathering information about someone in a span of time some eight months from the last known reported sighting in the general area between Fiji and Hawaii to when the post was published. There was no further details posted. Over the next few days the postings continued and were still limited in any details, though the forum moderator was requesting those details. The inquiry seemed very strange indeed. Why ask for assistance locating a missing boat and its owner and not provide more accurate details? So becoming peaked and after a web search and finding nothing noteworthy, I emailed the person inquiring and asked for more details. After a web search I found the company address and contact data for the person making the inquiry. Noted the companies location and assumed that this was the location or the general area where the missing boater either came from or had family. That was the correct part.

So I contacted that area's USCG Operations Office and made an inquiry with the limited details I had. After searching their data base and speaking with their own area command. They informed me that both the Grendal and Mr. Judd were located a while ago. Knowing that there were privacy issues involved and that I not being next of kin, would not receive any further information asto his exact location or well being, I dropped the issue and reported back to the forum moderator that the boat and owner were indeed located and that the posting was a false report.

Well guess who was wrong? I later received a email from the original inquiring party with much more detail than what was posted including the USCG case number. At the same time the forum moderator without even contacting me decided, I was off my rocker and revoked my entrance to the forum. Got to love people who have the same questions as you do, the same thoughts or concerns about the post in question, as you do, and then just assume your off your rocker and don't even bother to have the common decency to ask you before they react. Especially on a report of a missing sail boat, of which I take very seriously.

Well it did get my attention to say the least and I am not one to drop an issue like this, once I get involved. If I am wrong then I have to admit my mistake and take corrective action. So armed with much more details, I decided to go find out what the real story here was. I made direct contact with the USCG Area Command and also call the company where the original inquirer worked and who had contacted me by email and leaving a message to contact me.

Here are the real known facts of the missing sail boat Grendal.

As it was told to me by the United States Coast Guard this time. The Grendal was located half sunken off the Kura Atoll, North West of Midway Atoll or Midway Island. Mr. Judd was not located. When I asked if an air search had been conducted, the USCG said no, because they received the missing boat report some six or seven months after the last reported known sighting of the Grendal and Mr. Judd in Fiji. However they did launch a search party on the Kura Atoll and found nothing. Mr. Judd's personal processions, what was left of them, were on board the half sunken Grendal at the time.

I asked if there were any GPIRB or EBIRB signals sent or received or any may-days calls. The answer was very a surprising, no. A man with 40 years of sailing history in the South Pacific and no may-day calls or GPIRB signals? How very strange. Well I later found out why. Mr. Judd did not have any form of communications or electronics on his 33 foot sail boat. Nor was any found on his boat by the USCG. Not even a simple VHF radio.

Because of this and the fact that the missing boat report was transmitted so very late to the USCG, they could not even define an air search area. Forget about trying to find someone, some seven or eight months afterwards, sailing between Fiji and Hawaii. Once again even though with limited information the USCG did manage to locate the Grendal and sent a search party to the Atoll, finding nothing, they made contact with as many customs and regulatory offices in countries as they could that Mr. Judd was known to have visited. With no sign of Mr. Judd and no further information provided they closed the case.

As I was finishing my call with the USCG I received a call from the inquiring party who I had left a message for. Yes as I was informed, Mr. Judd did not have any communications or electronics equipment on board. Mr. Judd a 80 year old gentleman with some 40 years of sailing history in the South Pacific was something of a mavrick and someone who just was just care free. Mr. Judd was known to keep in touch with his family and so the lack of communications was unusual.

That did strike me as strange. If Judd had a habit of communicating why did his family wait so long? The gentleman on the line could not answer that and was surprised to find out that the report to the USCG was filed so late himself. Matter of fact according to this person. Mr. Judd had indeed communicated his sailing intentions. He originally sent a lady friend of his a post card in September of 2006 telling her that he would be departing Fiji on October 15 of 06, bound for Helo, Hawaii and was not sure how long it would take. She was asked to give this information to his brother and so she did.

Moreover, during this time there were some five or six named tropical cyclones raging havoc in the South Pacific at varying times during the period when the Grendal was sailing. Without any type of even basic electronics or communications, advanced warning would have never happened.



Tropical Cyclone Arthur - NASA

So Mr. Judd, would have had to rely on visual atmospheric and ocean sightings to determine weather. That did not work to well back in the days of Wooden Tall Ships and many ships and sailors were lost and that does not work well today either. For anyone especially a 80 year old person sailing in any ocean or even offshore without basic communications is unfortunately foolish. No matter how experienced someone is. The odds have a nasty habit of catching up on you. The likelihood of finding Mr. Judd at this time is about, well? Lets say almost impossible. Unless Mr. Judd one day makes contact. That too it seems unlikely.

As of this writing I have sent an email to a contact of mine at Fiji asking them to inquire about the Grendal and Mr. Judd at marinas he was known to harbor at.

If anyone has any information or history about Mr. Judd and his travels starting from September 2006 to May 2007, please contact me here. Just answer this post and I will receive an email.

To my mates at the sailing forum. Communications get crossed all the time and it was not hard in this very unusual case either. It was a strange tail and as I said before, "Ship Happens". You do have my apologies, but jumping without knowing any facts or just assuming someone is wrong without knowing any facts is making the same mistake I made. Next time at least make contact and find out what the facts really are before you react.

My condolences and prayers to Mr. Judd's family. I will do my best to find out anything I can.

Best
RS