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NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest

According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in half of the continental United States are at minor or moderate risk of exceeding flood levels this spring with the highest threat in the southern Great Lakes region due to above-average snowpack and a deep layer of frozen ground. Additionally, drought is expected to continue in California and the Southwest. 
 
The continuation of winter weather, above-average snowpack, frozen ground and thick ice coverage on streams and rivers will delay spring flooding into April in the upper Midwest eastward to New England. The intensity of the flooding will depend on the rate of snow and ice melt, and future rainfall.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140320_springoutlook.html 

NATIONAL SEVERE STORM PREPAREDNESS WEEK

NOAA, FEMA: Be a Force of Nature
National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 2-8
February 28, 2014

During National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 2 to 8, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are calling on individuals across the country to Be a Force of Nature: Take the Next Step by preparing for severe weather and encouraging others to do the same.

Just one tornado can cause catastrophic damage. Last year, the EF 5 tornado that struck Moore, Okla., on May 20 killed 24 people and caused more than $2 billion in damage. In 2013, a total of 903 tornadoes were reported in the United States. Those tornadoes occurred in 43 states on 152 days, resulting in 55 fatalities and more than 500 injuries.

National Severe Storm Preparedness Week

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™

We are pleased to announce that Robin Storm is now a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™ !!!!!

Welcome to the NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador™  initiative. Your organization has been accepted as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador .

San Francisco's big 1906 quake was third of a series on San Andreas Fault

Research led by a University of Oregon doctoral student in California's Santa Cruz Mountains has uncovered geologic evidence that supports historical narratives for two earthquakes in the 68 years prior to San Francisco's devastating 1906 disaster.

The evidence places the two earthquakes, in 1838 and 1890, on the San Andreas Fault, as theorized by many researchers based on written accounts about damage to Spanish-built missions in the Monterey and San Francisco bay areas. These two quakes, as in 1906, were surface-rupturing events, the researchers concluded.

Continuing work, says San Francisco Bay-area native Ashley R. Streig, will dig deeper into the region's geological record -- layers of sediment along the fault -- to determine if the ensuing seismically quiet years make up a normal pattern -- or not -- of quake frequency along the fault.

Streig is lead author of the study, published in this month's issue of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. She collaborated on the project with her doctoral adviser Ray Weldon, professor of the UO's Department of Geological Sciences, and Timothy E. Dawson of the Menlo Park office of the California Geological Survey.

The study was the first to fully map the active fault trace in the Santa Cruz Mountains using a combination of on-the-ground observations and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), a remote sensing technology. The Santa Cruz Mountains run for about 39 miles from south of San Francisco to near San Juan Batista. Hazel Dell is east of Santa Cruz and north of Watsonville.

Read > The rest of the story

Experimental Storm-Surge Maps to Accompany NOAA Hurricane Projections

Emergency management crews will have another tool to help them protect low-lying areas from flooding the next time a hurricane approaches.

Beginning this year, the National Hurricane Center's projections will include surge maps that show where flooding is expected along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

Flooding that usually accompanies a hurricane is caused by a storm surge -- a rise in ocean water caused by the atmospheric pressure and wind that pushes water landward. Storm surges can kill, with nine out of every 10 deaths from hurricanes caused by the surge or its flooding, according to Federal Emergency Management Agency statistics.

The surge maps, which will be experimental for at least two years, will be issued at the first sign of a hurricane or tropical storm watch and will be continuously updated with each new hurricane forecast, typically issued every six hours, according to a release from hurricane center's parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Read > The rest of the story...

Pacific trade winds stall global surface warming ... for now

The strongest trade winds have driven more of the heat from global warming into the oceans; but when those winds slow, that heat will rapidly return to the atmosphere causing an abrupt rise in global average temperatures.

Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.

New research published today in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that the dramatic acceleration in winds has invigorated the circulation of the Pacific Ocean, causing more heat to be taken out of the atmosphere and transferred into the subsurface ocean, while bringing cooler waters to the surface.

"Scientists have long suspected that extra ocean heat uptake has slowed the rise of global average temperatures, but the mechanism behind the hiatus remained unclear" said Professor Matthew England, lead author of the study and a Chief Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

"But the heat uptake is by no means permanent: when the trade wind strength returns to normal -- as it inevitably will -- our research suggests heat will quickly accumulate in the atmosphere. So global temperatures look set to rise rapidly out of the hiatus, returning to the levels projected within as little as a decade."

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds began during the 1990s and continues today. Previously, no climate models have incorporated a trade wind strengthening of the magnitude observed, and these models failed to capture the hiatus in warming. Once the trade winds were added by the researchers, the global average temperatures very closely resembled the observations during the hiatus.

Read > The rest of the story..

Best weather forecasting models evaluated: Which one best predicted September 2013 Colorado floods?

Two University of Iowa researchers recently tested the ability of the world's most advanced weather forecasting models to predict the Sept. 9-16, 2013 extreme rainfall that caused severe flooding in Boulder, Colo.

The results, published in the December 2013 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, indicated the forecasting models generally performed well, but also left room for improvement.

David Lavers and Gabriele Villarini, researchers at IIHR -- Hydroscience and Engineering, a UI research facility, evaluated rainfall forecasts from eight different global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.

During September 2013, Boulder County and surrounding areas experienced severe flooding and heavy rain resulting in fatalities, the loss of homes and businesses, and the declaration of a major disaster.

After the storms had subsided, Lavers and Villarini decided to examine how well some of the leading NWP models had done. As a constantly improving science, NWP involves integrating current weather conditions through mathematical models of the atmosphere-ocean system to forecast future weather. For their study, the researchers selected the actual rainfall forecasts made by eight state-of-the-art global NWP models for the period of the Colorado floods.

Read > Best weather forecasting models evaluated: Which one best predicted September 2013 Colorado floods?

USCG Rolling Out AIS Aids to Navigation: Are They Safe AND Secure?

There are new buoys – and is some cases virtual buoys – coming to a U.S. port near you.  First seen in the port of Mombasa, Kenya almost two years ago, AIS-assisted buoys (Real AIS ATON) – physical buoys with an AIS transmitter installed – will be rolled out in select areas on an experimental basis by the U.S. Coast Guard.  

These will be accompanied by both Synthetic AIS ATON – physical buoys overlaid with an AIS signal generated by a shoreside base station and Virtual AIS ATON – truly virtual buoys with no physical presence, which would be visible on an appropriately outfitted ECDIS, radar or computer.

Read > The rest of the story..

The Scientific Explanation Behind Underwater 'Fairy Circles'

For years, strange underwater circular formations in the Baltic Sea have mystified residents. Some have thought that they were bomb craters, or created by fairies or aliens. Turns out, none of the above explanations is correct. 

"It has nothing to do with either bomb craters or landing marks for aliens," said biologists Marianne Holmer from University of Southern Denmark and Jens Borum from University of Copenhagen in a statement. "Nor with fairies, who in the old days got the blame for similar phenomena on land, the fairy rings in lawns being a well known example."

Read > The Scientific Explanation Behind Underwater 'Fairy Circles'
http://www.underwatertimes.com/link.php?url=http://www.popsci.com/article/science/scientific-explanation-behind-underwater-fairy-circles

World temperature records available via Google Earth

Climate researchers have made the world's temperature records available via Google Earth. The new Google Earth format allows users to scroll around the world, zoom in on 6,000 weather stations, and view monthly, seasonal and annual temperature data more easily than ever before. The move is part of an ongoing effort to make data about past climate and climate change as accessible and transparent as possible.

Read >  http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140205091611.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fearth_climate+%28Earth+%26+Climate+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

Winter Heat Alaska!

While much of the continental United States endured several cold snaps in January 2014, record-breaking warmth gripped Alaska. Spring-like conditions set rivers rising and avalanches tumbling.

This map depicts land surface temperature anomalies in Alaska for January 23–30, 2014. Based on data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the map shows how 2014 temperatures compared to the 2001–2010 average for the same week. Areas with warmer than average temperatures are shown in red; near-normal temperatures are white; and areas that were cooler than the base period are blue. Gray indicates oceans or areas where clouds blocked the satellite from collecting usable data.

A persistent ridge of high pressure off the Pacific Coast fueled the warm spell, shunting warm air and rainstorms to Alaska instead of California, where they normally end up. The last half of January was one of the warmest winter periods in Alaska’s history, with temperatures as much as 40°F (22°C) above normal on some days in the central and western portions of the state, according to Weather Underground’s Christopher Bart. The all-time warmest January temperature ever observed in Alaska was tied on January 27 when the temperature peaked at 62°F (16.7°C) at Port Alsworth. Numerous other locations—including Nome, Denali Park Headquarters, Palmer, Homer, Alyseka, Seward, Talkeetna, and Kotzebue—all set January records.

Read > http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83032&src=fb

The Polar Vortex Meets Rapid Refresh

In 1959 the AMS published a tome that became the touchstone document for a generation. The Glossary of Meteorology served its purpose well. So well that a 41-member editorial board and over 300 labored for five years to ensure the quality of the expanded, refreshed second edition of that volume…in 2000.

A lot happened in the meantime in the atmospheric sciences, largely because this community emphatically does not update itself solely on 41-year cycles.

Read > http://blog.ametsoc.org/news/the-polar-vortex-meets-rapid-refresh/

Hot weather deaths projected to rise 257 percent in UK by 2050s, experts warn

The number of annual excess deaths caused by hot weather in England and Wales is projected to surge by 257% by the middle of the century, as a result of climate change and population growth, concludes research published online in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.

The elderly (75+) will be most at risk, particularly in the South and the Midlands, the findings suggest.

The research team, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and Public Health England, used time-series regression analysis to chart historic (1993-2006) fluctuations in weather patterns and death rates to characterise the associations between temperature and mortality, by region and by age group.

They then applied these to projected population increases and local climate to estimate the future number of deaths likely to be caused by temperature -- hot and cold -- for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.

They based their calculations on the projected daily average temperatures for 2000-09, 2020-29, 2050-59 and 2080-89, derived from the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC), and population growth estimates from the Office of National Statistics.

Read > http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140203191806.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fearth_climate+%28Earth+%26+Climate+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

Enhance Fujita (EF) Scale Open Feedback Forum to be Held in Conjunction with American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting

Enhance Fujita (EF) Scale Open Feedback Forum to be Held in Conjunction with American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting

On Monday, February 3rd, 2014 from 1pm - 4pm EST, the National Weather Service (NWS) will host an open discussion with the American Meteorological Society (AMS) community regarding the current Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale for rating the strength of tornadoes. This discussion will serve to outline the strengths and deficiencies with the current EF-scale rating guidance, and solicit feedback and ideas from the weather community on how the rating process might be improved.

The need for this EF-scale Open Feedback Forum arose when the rating of the El Reno, OK tornado of May 31, 2013 occurred.

This forum will permit a broad discussion about questions and concerns related to the present day EF-scale process.

Should evolving sensing technologies, which may not measure tornado wind speeds at the surface be used in post storm surveys?

How can the NWS ensure the tornado rating process is consistent throughout the nation?

Should a standard be developed to strengthen the tornado rating process?
Is there a need to maintain calibration or other metadata information on research sensing systems that may supplement future post storm assessments?

How should tornadoes, which do not produce quantifiable damage to structures, be included?

Can supplemental observation information be included in the present day Storm Data construct? If so, what is an effective format to include this information?

Read > http://apps.weather.gov/efscale/index.php

Ground Hog Day - 6 More Weeks!

Well folks Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow - 6 more weeks!

According to the National Weather Service they say that...

Every February 2nd crowds gather at Gobbler's Knob, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. A groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, burrowed inside his heated simulated tree trunk, is about to thrust or be pulled into the limelight at about 7:25 am once again. The gates open at 3:00 a.m., followed by live entertainment, music and a pre-dawn fireworks display helps to ignite (hopefully not literally!) the crowd that has gathered in anticipation of Phil's forecast.

The awe-inspiring fireworks are set to lively music, which is just what the crowd generally needs on a cold rural Pennsylvania morning. Phil, and others like him, makes the most celebrated weather forecast of the year usually around the crack of dawn. Has spring sprung when Phil emerges from his burrow and doesn't see his shadow? Or should he scurry back into his burrow for six more weeks of winter weather if skies are clear and fair?
Groundhog Day has its origins in an ancient celebration of a point mid-way between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. Superstition has it that fair weather was seen as forbearance of a stormy and cold second half to winter.

The early Christians in Europe established the custom of Candlemas Day, when the clergy would bless candles and people would light them in each window of their homes to ward off the darkness of mid-winter.

But the legend of the February 2nd forecast also persisted, as captured in this old English saying:

If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Winter will not come again.

Read the rest ... http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php

TESSA Conference, February 8, 2014

This conference is a must! Visit http://www.tessa.org/ !

Were Back! Website and Article Updates Soon!

Were Back! Updates Soon!

Indian Ocean due huge quake 'in next 30 years'

Indian Ocean due huge quake 'in next 30 years'

JAKARTA] The Indian Ocean could be due another massive earthquake within the next 30 years — one that could rival the magnitude of the one that caused the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004.

Researchers made the prediction after studying corals, which show rings of growth from which past sea levels can be inferred. Earthquakes push the land up, depressing the sea level in the area and preventing corals from growing upwards. Sea levels then rise as the land subsides, leaving the history of the earthquake imprinted in the coral growth patterns.

The scientists analysed coral growth over the last 700 years in the shallow reefs along the 700-kilometre 'Sunda megathrust' fault — a boundary between tectonic plates off the Mentawai islands in western Sumatra, Indonesia.

This section of the Sunda fault had been inactive for at least 50 years until a magnitude 8.4 earthquake in September 2007. Using the coral data the scientists found three previous sets of large earthquakes. If the cycles continue to be consistent — beginning every 200 years — the next earthquake is due within the next few decades.

Danny H. Natawidjaja, an author of the paper and a senior researcher at the Research Center for Geotechnology of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, told SciDev.Net the probability of a large earthquake in western Sumatra in the next 30 years is more than 70 per cent. MORE

WEATHER NOTE

Results Are In: Great Southern California ShakeOut Successful, Sets U.S. Record!

Los Angeles - It's working! On November 13, 2008 more than 5.47 million people in southern California participated in The Great Southern California ShakeOut, now officially the largest earthquake drill in the Nation's history - and according to some community leaders, a success that should be practiced every year.

"This is the best single effort in emergency preparedness in my nearly 20 years in the business," wrote Mike Martinet, Executive Director, South Bay Office of Disaster Management (Area G). "I hope that we can continue to use this scenario or some variations thereof for years to come."
The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of events, including the drill, all based on the 7.8 Magnitude San Andreas Fault earthquake scenario.

All the resources, tools and information are still readily available at http://www.shakeout.org/. Much of the concept and organization came out of the Earthquake Country Alliance, a public-private partnership, which includes the US Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, California Office of Emergency Services, Caltech, State Farm, City of Los Angeles, Art Center College of Design, and many other partners.

When organizers of The ShakeOut concluded the historic week of earthquake preparedness events, including millions taking part in the "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" drill, they convened a meeting of emergency managers and community leaders to examine value of the effort. When asked what could be done better, the participants overwhelmingly supported the idea of turning it into an annual day or week of disaster preparedness activities.

"We didn't know when we set out to do this, if anyone would participate," said Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. "They did, and we're now getting calls to do something annually."

The requests to continue the effort have been so constant over the past month that the Earthquake Country Alliance has agreed to look into expanding into a statewide organization. "We certainly have heard many ideas of how we can get more people involved - and we'd like to do just that!" said Mark Benthien, Executive Director of the Earthquake Country Alliance and Outreach Director for the Southern California Earthquake Center. "We hope that an annual ShakeOut-like drill will be part of an expanded statewide earthquake awareness program for many years." MORE

MARITIME NOTE

Abandoned Vessels: Threat to Nigeria’s Maritime

About 90 per cent of world trade is facilitated through seas and oceans. The case of Nigeria is not exceptional. However, incessant pirate attacks have constituted major threat to the country’s maritime trade and investment. Shipwrecks and abandoned vessels on the nation’s territorial waters have been identified as another risk to huge maritime investments.

Gboyega Akinsanmi writes Nigeria’s waters are replete with all manners of obstacles that threaten maritime investment. Aside from incessant pirate cases, her territorial waters are clogged and littered with shipwrecks and abandoned vessels. There was little or no effort geared at clearing the country’s waterways and maritime routes to ensure free movement of vessels and safe investment in the entire area.This, according to experts, has a lot of implications for maritime investment and trade.

It hinders free movement of vessels with potential to cause ship mishap, thus leading to loss of lives, cargoes and multi-billion investments. If continued, it portends unsafe and unsecured maritime routes against the best practice, and Nigeria will definitely so much incur loss in revenue.Also, shipwrecks on Nigeria’s waters provide hideouts for criminals in the country. For instance, abandoned vessels have constituted base for pirates, sea robbers and miscreants to attack legitimate vessel operators and fishing trawlers. This has threatened vessels, maritime trade and investment worth of several billions of dollars. Fishing trawlers have lost about N25 billion to piracy and sea robberies.

The clog on Nigeria’s maritime routes and waterways is increasing concerns and fears of investment in the maritime sector. Like other maritime actors and stakeholders, the management of Nigerdock Nigeria Plc expressed profound worries about heaps of shipwrecks and abandoned vessels on the maritime routes and waterways because they provide hideouts for pirates and sea robbers. MORE

RS

Weathernews launches Global Sea Ice Information website

Weathernews launches Global Sea Ice Information website

The Global Ice Center has been collecting and monitoring global sea ice data, including ice concentration, ice thickness and ice drift, since its opening in July 2008, in order to provide unified global sea ice information to shipping companies.

The Global Ice Center’s information covers such data as sea ice concentration, thickness and drift over not only the Arctic Sea, but also the Baltic Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.

Recently, sea ice data from the Global Ice Center was utilized for a successful and safe voyage through the Baltic Sea by an LNG tanker operated by one of the world’s major shipping companies.

In the near future, we will provide historical sea ice data, such as the first day of freezing, the first day of melting, the average rate and the largest amount of sea ice area.

Weathernews believes that our official Global Ice Center website is able to support many shipping vessels across the world, in order to contribute to the safe passage of the vessels that brave the icy waters of the Arctic Ocean.

[Major Characteristics of the Global Ice Center]

AnalysisThe Global Ice Center provides analysis information of sea ice conditions in all affected regions, using data from our original observation network and from organizations of various countries.

ForecastThe Global Ice Center original “I-SEE” model predicts sea ice concentration, thickness and movement out to two weeks, to support safe ship operation.

NetworkThe Global Ice Center, by using innovative technology in academia applied to sea ice data, is able to provide vital information to maritime companies, as well as feedback from ship reports.

Weathernews Inc. is the world's largest private weather service company headquartered in Japan. It is the only global weather content maker that employs over 600 staff (including more than 200 meteorologists) in offices in 32 cities in 16 countries and regions, including United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France, Spain, Australia, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, India, Nepal and Taiwan.

WEATHER NOTE

Waterspout causes chaos for boaties

A boating couple from the Coromandel Peninsula who were singled out by a freak of nature on the first day of their holiday have not been put off the lifestyle.

Anne Louden and her husband John were watching an electrical storm last night from their anchorage off Great Barrier Island, when the sky became dark. Just as they went below deck, a water spout picked up their nine metre launch, threw it into the air and dumped it back down. The couple suffered only a few cuts and bruises.

Ms Louden says she has seen disasters on TV and could not imagine ever being part of such an event.

"It's just one of those weird, freaky things that happens. You can't be put off boating, you really can't, it's a spectacular lifestyle. But it gives you an appreciation of weather and caution."
Ms Louden says none of the other 30 or so boats in the bay were touched.

Waterspouts occur when layers of high, cool air blow over a body of water such as a lake, river or ocean sweeping up moist air from below.

Tornado Intercept Audio



MARITIME NOTE

Lack of systems training poses threat to shipping
Electronic navigation aids are not being properly used, says marine safety body

The UK's sea safety body has warned that computerised navigation systems are steering large vessels into dangerous shallows because officers have insufficient training in their use.

The Department for Transport's Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) sounded the alert after over-reliance on an incorrectly used Electronic Chart Display Information System (ECDIS) resulted in the temporary grounding of the cargo ship Performer on Harborough Sand on its way to Grimsby in May 2008.

A subsequent investigation by MAIB warned: "The use of ECDIS has steadily increased in recent years, and it is disturbing that the number of accidents resulting from the incorrect use of ECDIS and ECS [Electronic Chart Systems] through poor system knowledge has also risen.

"ECDIS will soon replace paper charts as the primary planning and monitoring media onboard most vessels, but the system can only realise its potential benefits to maritime safety if all mariners who are expected to use the equipment at sea are properly trained."

Many ships' officers, including the master of Performer, were only formally trained in the use of paper charts, although many have used electronic aids. An ECDIS installed in 2007 was Performer's primary means of navigation, but none of her bridge watchkeeping officers had been trained in its use.

MAIB cited a number of accidents in recent years in which misuse of ECDIS or ECS has been a contributing factor, including a cross-Channel ferry that headed for shallows in 2004 without its ECDIS issuing a warning because it had not been correctly set up.

And in January last year a vessel hit a submerged wreck near Dover, severely damaging her propellers, because the wreck was not shown on the ECS display. "The need for mandatory training in ECDIS is compelling," said the MAIB report.

Proposed international regulations require ECDIS in most large new passenger vessels and large cargo boats and tankers, and its retro-fit over time to existing vessels.

Dangers At Sea



January 2009...gone already! Have a great weekend!
RS