New Zealand Tries to Avoid a Rescue Bill

New Zealand Tries to Avoid a Rescue Bill

From the The Antarctica Blog

Tourism in Antarctica isn't like tourism in other extreme environments - in some ways, it's much more dangerous.

Take any indicator - temperature, ocean conditions, accessibility - and Antarctica in a sense wins because it is colder, icier, and more difficult to get to than anywhere else. So it makes sense that New Zealand would try to block an adventurous rower from his plans to row around Antarctica by himself.

Maritime New Zealand (MNZ), the branch of government responsible for marine safety, would be responsible for rescuing the rower, Oliver Hicks, in case of an accident. MNZ believes that an accident is almost inevitable because of the harsh conditions on the Southern Ocean. Hicks will be using a boat that is powered by rowing but has cabins in which he can sleep, prepare food, and store supplies.

The boat is also allegedly designed to withstand Southern Ocean conditions.MNZ has great reason to be skeptical of Hicks' plans, however.

Previous attempts have resulted in accidents requiring rescue, and in one case an adventurer drowned. Rescue missions are costly and put rescuers themselves in danger. Hicks' journey would take him 500 days and would cover 24,000 square kilometers, or just under 15,000 miles.

He plans to halt for a few months during the brutal Antarctic winter on the island of South Georgia.Hicks' response to New Zealand's refusal to let him set out on his journey was to travel to Australia.

Australian officials are hardly excited about the project, but unlike their New Zealand counterparts cannot stop him from leaving. If he needs rescuing, MNZ will still be on the hook.

Hicks has already accomplished some impressive feats of solo rowing - he is the only person to have rowed from America to the United Kingdom alone - and feels confident that he is capable of completing his mission and staying safe.This incident underscores the need for special tourism policies for Antarctica.

The human desire to undertake difficult and dangerous adventures is admirable, but is disregarding the wishes of those who would have to rescue you also admirable? It's not as if MNZ could just ignore Hicks in the event of an accident, even if he wanted them to do so. It seems a shame that governments are hamstrung in this way.

While this type of tourism doesn't represent the kind of environmental threat that we at ASOC are most concerned about, it does point to the overall lack of regulation for Antarctic tourism that would protect both people and the environment.

Laws and rules no doubt deaden the souls of expeditioners, but they keep people safe and prevent unnecessary crises.

Posted by Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition at 7:31 AM

WEATHER NOTE

Fight against historic flood protects city

Record flooding of the Stillaguamish River filled low-lying areas south of the Stanwood city limits, leaving Marine Drive under more than 3 feet of water last week.

“It was close,” said Stanwood Camano Fire and Rescue (SCFR) Chief Mike Ganz Friday morning. “We are finally out of the woods.”

River gauges showed the Stillaguamish to be at or near record depth by 6 p.m. Thursday. An emergency earthen wall along SR 532 held back the cresting flood, and with the cooperation of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), the city sandbagged the tracks and Marine Drive to keep east Stanwood dry.

By Thursday evening, the governor’s office had declared a state of emergency for most of Snohomish County.

On Friday morning, it seemed as if the worst had passed.

After consultation with BNSF officials, tracks were reopened by 10 a.m. On Monday, Fort Freberg, a 7-foot-tall emergency dike named for retired firefighter Jack Freberg, still stands as a reminder of the Herculean effort that saved the city.

Mike Simmons, SCFR emergency manager, said he is in no hurry to remove the fortification. “You really don’t want to pull these things down too quickly,” said Simmons. Ganz credits the volunteers who worked alongside city and emergency crews.

“These folks — they’re awesome,” he said. “They did a fantastic job.”

According to Ganz, many different agencies and individuals — some from other counties — worked hand-in-hand to prevent a tragedy.

In addition, inmate work crews from Monroe Correctional Complex worked with city crews filling sandbags and providing them to residents.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked alongside city and county crews to shore up temporary protective dikes and repair levees.

“They helped plug a break near 95th Avenue NW,” said Ganz. Rebecca Hover, Snohomish County Sheriff’s Office public information officer, said rescue teams were deployed swiftly to prevent the loss of life.

“We responded to dozens of calls, but it’s impossible to say how many calls we went on or how many people we rescued — there’s really no way to keep count,” said Hover. “Rescuers would get a call to go to one house to help people out and then they’d find more people who needed help out of the area or neighborhood.”

Most of the calls involved people needing help out of their houses or businesses; they also helped people who got stuck in their vehicles as they tried to drive through the flood waters, she said.

Christian Davis, North County Fire/EMS public information officer, said their crews were kept busy with rescue operations.

“We had nine water rescue calls, with 14 victims removed from the flooded areas,” said Davis. “We (also) assisted with a sandbagging request by DEM (Department of Emergency Management) for the city of Stanwood.”

One unique moment, said Davis, was when a 100-gallon propane tank washed up on the shore in the Warm Beach area.

Crews secured the tank, stopped the leak and notified a company for its removal, he said. Stanwood’s emergency operations center went into action Wednesday morning and remained open until 4 p.m. Friday.

“The final damage estimates haven’t come in yet,” said Simmons. “Within the city limits, it will probably be very low.”

Most of the real damage happened to homes and farms south of Stanwood, he said. For many, the days and weeks ahead will mean clean-up and salvage operations. Claims for assistance should be started immediately, said Simmons. Only damage from the floods occurring on or after Jan. 6 should be reported.

“The primary focus now is to compile damage reports from Snohomish County residents and businesses to qualify for federal disaster aid and speed relief to our citizens,” he said.

“Do not wait for a professional estimate of cost or an insurance adjustor document to fill these forms out.”

Receding water has allowed for the reopening of Marine Drive, but several streets remained navigable only by boat at NEWS deadline.

Dianne White, Stanwood mayor, said she is filled with pride after witnessing the ‘flood fight’ play out.

“The flood was an event that showcased the quality of the citizens of Stanwood,” she said. The seamless response of emergency crews and the scope of volunteerism prevented disaster on a wider scale, she said.

“Without the help of the Army Corps of Engineers, we would have lost our waste water treatment plant,” said White.

Flood waters entered offices at the plant, though damages are reported as minimal. Water processing and quality were not affected.

“The fire department’s Support 99 group as well as the Salvation Army worked tirelessly to meet the needs of victims, volunteers and EOC workers throughout the event,” she said. White applauded the efforts of Red Cross volunteers, Stanwood/Camano School District personnel and staff from Josephine care facility whose residents were evacuated to Stanwood High School.

“What distinguishes Stanwood is the ‘can do’ attitude of our citizens and businesses,” said White. “We had over 400 sandbag volunteers, who filled bags at Index Sensors and Twin City Foods parking lots.”

White said she is grateful for food provided to volunteers by QFC, the family of Carolyn Lund, and numerous citizens.

Flood gates erected to help drain the flood performed better than expected. On Friday, the gates were draining at 1,500 cubic feet per second and lowered the flood water by 46 inches in one day.

“This new addition to our flood fighting arsenal is serving to get Marine Drive and the railroad tracks open much sooner than past years,” she said. “The Stillaguamish Flood District and Max Albert are to be commended for their persistence in getting this structure built.”

Chuck Hazleton, Stillaguamish Flood Control District commissioner, said he was overwhelmed by the success of the flood control gates in operation near Marine Drive.

“The flood gates are working better than we had expected,” said Hazelton. “The velocity of the discharge is more than we anticipated.”

Built in September 2007, the control system — a concrete structure — has 10 gates to create a nonporous channel back into the river.

The overall project cost $175,000, and the city subsidized $30,000 towards the construction of the gated system.

“It was definitely money well spent,” said Hazelton.

Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D), of Camano Island, said the legacy of this flood event will be how residents saved their city.

“One of the merits of living in a small community is how your neighbors reach out to help,” said Haugen. “I am so proud of the way people in the Stanwood area rallied to help each other.”

Haugen said she believes Stanwood was spared because of all the people who helped. “It's really tragic how many people in our state were affected,” she said. “You just can't imagine how bad this is until you've experienced it.”

The flooding was yet another blow to a region already hit hard by bad weather, said Haugen.

MARITIME NOTE

Coast Guard warns mariners be aware of ice conditions in Delaware Bay

PHILADELPHIA - The Coast Guard Captain of the Port Sector Delaware Bay in Philadelphia has set ice condition three Thursday and is warning mariners to be aware of ice in the Delaware Bay and River.

Ice condition three is set when weather conditions are favorable for the formation of ice in navigable waters. All masters, ship agents, and owners and operators of all vessels, marine facilities and marinas should review and adhere to the seasonal ice procedures listed below. These criteria were developed in partnership with the Mariners’ Advisory Committee for the Delaware Bay and River. Ship agents should generally act as liaison between the Coast Guard and their vessels.

When ice is present, but less than two inches, vessels must have a propulsion system with a minimum of 1000 horsepower, and be able to maneuver un-assisted through the ice without needing to stop, back off and ram the ice.

When ice is present in the C and D canal, only steel-hulled vessels whose propulsion systems are in excess of 1000 horsepower may transit the canal.

Vessel convoys will not be directed for ice or ice build of less than two inches, provided vessels can maintain headway. For ice conditions of two inches or greater, the Captain of the Port, in conjunction with the MAC, will consider implementing a plan that includes directing vessel convoys.

Vessel moorings should be checked frequently to ensure the vessel is adequately moored.

Vessels at anchor should maintain their engines on standby at all times.

Vessels at anchor should ensure that proper bridge watches are stood at all times.

Vessel sea chests should be checked regularly for ice buildup and precautions should be taken to ensure that the sea chests are kept clear.

The Captain of the Port Sector Delaware Bay may establish additional requirements for specific geographic areas of the Captain of the Port Zone if conditions warrant such restrictions.

Please refer to the Sector Delaware Bay website for additional information regarding ice operations within the Sector Delaware Bay zone at http://www.uscg.mil/d5/sectDelawarebay or by calling our Sector Delaware Bay ice line at (215)-271-4995.

If you have any questions regarding the contents of this bulletin or the expectations of the Captain of the Port, please contact the Waterways Management staff at (215) 271-4889 or the Situational Unit Controller at (215) 271-4807.

Marine Salvage Basics






RS

Hazards Of Severe Space Weather Revealed

Hazards Of Severe Space Weather Revealed

ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2009) — A NASA-funded study describes how extreme solar eruptions could have severe consequences for communications, power grids and other technology on Earth.

The National Academy of Sciences in Washington conducted the study.

The resulting report provides some of the first clear economic data that effectively quantifies today's risk of extreme conditions in space driven by magnetic activity on the sun and disturbances in the near-Earth environment. Instances of extreme space weather are rare and are categorized with other natural hazards that have a low frequency but high consequences.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

"To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

Besides emitting a continuous stream of plasma called the solar wind, the sun periodically releases billions of tons of matter called coronal mass ejections.

These immense clouds of material, when directed toward Earth, can cause large magnetic storms in the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere. Such space weather can affect the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems.

Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet. Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting. Space weather has been recognized as causing problems with new technology since the invention of the telegraph in the 19th century.

A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities. Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future.

NASA requested the study to assess the potential damage from significant space weather during the next 20 years. National and international experts from industry, government and academia participated in the study. The report documents the possibility of a space weather event that has societal effects and causes damage similar to natural disasters on Earth.

"From a public policy perspective, it is quite significant that we have begun the extremely challenging task of assessing space weather impacts in a quantitative way," said Daniel Baker, professor and director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder. Baker chaired the panel that prepared the report.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," said Baker. "We were delighted that NASA helped support bringing together dozens of world experts from industry and government to share their experiences and begin planning of improved public policy strategies."

The sun is currently near the minimum of its 11-year activity cycle. It is expected that solar storms will increase in frequency and intensity toward the next solar maximum, expected to occur around 2012.

The Heliophysics Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington provided funding for the study. The division seeks to understand the sun, its solar processes and the interaction of solar plasma and radiation with Earth, other planets and the universe.

Understanding the connections between the sun and its planets will allow better prediction on the impacts of solar activity on humans, technological systems and even the presence of life itself in the universe.

The National Academies are chartered by Congress to provide independent technical and scientific advice to the federal government.

For images related to the study and more information about the Heliophysics Division, visit: http://nasascience.nasa.gov/heliophysics

To view the National Academy of Sciences' complete report, visit: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html

WEATHER NOTE

Satellites Used To Measure Inland Floods

ScienceDaily (Dec. 23, 2008) — Satellites that were designed to measure sea level over the world's oceans can serve a valuable purpose over land, a new study has found. Researchers used NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon satellite and the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite to measure the height and extent of flooding in North America, South America, and Asia.

The study shows that satellites can supplement the measurements that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) gathers from flood gauges on the ground -- at little or no cost, said C.K. Shum, professor of earth sciences at Ohio State University.

"After a flood, we can look back at the satellite data to pinpoint when the flood began, and find out how far the flood waters extended, which is really important for flood modeling," he said.

Satellites such as TOPEX/Poseidon measure the height of land or water by bouncing radio signals off of surfaces and measuring how long the signals take to return.

Rough surfaces scatter some of the signal in other directions, and cause errors in a satellite's on board tracking system. This often happens over land. Scientists use "re-tracking" software to fix the errors, and make the satellite's measurements more precise.

That's what the Ohio State software does -- it re-tracks the satellite data, but in a way that enables detailed measurements of water on land.

The key to the software is an algorithm that can tell the difference between water and snow cover. Ohio State postdoctoral researcher Hyongki Lee developed the algorithm and graduate student Manman Zhang applied the algorithm for her doctoral thesis.

Zhang presented the work in a poster session at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

Shum, Zhang, and their colleagues used the software to process TOPEX/Poseidon data from the 1997 Red River flood in the upper Midwest of the United States, an area with abundant farmland and wetlands. They detected flooded regions within four river basins: the Red River Basin in North Dakota and Minnesota; the Missouri River Basin in North Dakota and South Dakota; and the Minnesota River Basin and the Mississippi River Basin, both in Minnesota and Iowa.

The flood happened in April of that year, as winter snows began to melt. Zhang's algorithm differentiated between the scattered radar signal produced by water and by areas still covered by snow. As the floodwaters began to move down the Red River, the satellite measurements provided estimates of flood levels.

After re-tracking, the satellite data agreed with USGS ground measurements taken at the time. For example, the software determined that flood waters in Grand Forks, North Dakota, rose 20 feet (6 meters), which matched data recorded from flood gauges there.

The researchers did the same for the June 2008 Iowa City flood that killed three people and damaged 2 million acres of farmland. They found that they could track the ebb and flow of that flood over a scale of several hours. For that part of the study, they worked with Carrie Huitger, a USGS hydrologist who supplied the flood gauge data. They performed similar studies with TOPEX/Poseidon data for a flood in the Amazon River Basin, and with ENVISAT data for a flood in southwestern Taiwan -- both with similar results.

The satellites can't be used to forecast a flood because the data isn't processed very quickly and the spatial coverage of the satellite measurements is limited, Shum explained. Even preliminary processing takes hours. But after a flood, such data can add to data collected on the ground, to help scientists better understand how floods happen.

Next, the researchers want to automate the software so that it can build an archive of flood data. Since the satellites are already in orbit collecting the data, there would be little cost beyond building the database and enabling scientists to access it.

In the future, a new satellite may enable more extensive and detailed measurements. Ohio State scientists lead an international team that has proposed the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission. The SWOT satellite will feature dual antennas that will gather high-resolution data over a much wider surface of the earth than is possible with today's satellites.

Collaborators on this project include Doug Alsdorf, associate professor of earth sciences, and Frank Schwartz, professor and Ohio Eminent Scholar in Hydrogeology.

This work was funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA.

Hail tornado severe storms lightning video Australia



MARITIME NOTE

Thousands urge rescue boat return

The crew of a Devon rescue boat is sending out its own SOS to get its vessel reinstated. A petition of 5,000 signatures is being handed in to parliament on Wednesday, saying lives are being put at risk.

The story made headlines last summer when the crew used the boat to rescue a teenage girl at Hope Cove.

The Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA), which had warned the crew that the boat was unsafe, impounded it. The MCA is due to hold talks on the issue.

The MCA later brought the boat back, with a restriction that it could be used within a certain distance from the beach in the South Hams area of Devon.

But two months ago the boat was locked away again, this time until a consultation was carried out.

The crew has said the boat is safe and fears lives are being put at risk.
MP Anthony Steen said: "The rescue boat had been successfully operated by four men who were able to launch the boat at a moment's notice in the event of an emergency since they worked locally.

"Now a large stretch of the south Devon coastline is suddenly without adequate sea rescue coverage."

The MCA said Hope Cove was covered by the nearby Salcombe lifeboat.
It said in a statement: "We will be consulting with stakeholders soon to discuss beach safety provision in the South Hams."

FROM HOLLAND AND KNIGHT

Singapore – comments sought re draft amendments to MARPOL Annex I The Singapore Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) issued a circular stating that it is seeking comments from owners, operators, masters, and others regarding draft interim guidelines and draft amendments to MARPOL Annex I adopted by the recent session of the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC). The draft documents relate to: (1) the method of calculation of the energy efficiency design index for new ships; (2) the Supplement to the IOPP Certificate; (3) prevention of pollution during transfer of oil cargo between oil tankers at sea; (4) amendments to Regulations 1, 12, 13, 17, and 38; (5) the IOPP Certificate; and (6) the Oil Record Book. The draft amendments are expected to be adopted at the next session of the MEPC, scheduled for July 2009. Shipping Circular No. 5 of 2009 (1/6/09).

UK – report on container ship-fishing vessel collision The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) issued the summary of its preliminary examination of a collision between a container ship and a fishing vessel that occurred in good weather off Lizard Point on 18 September 2008. Visibility from the bridge of the container ship was impaired. Neither vessel was maintaining a good lookout or making proper use of their radar. (1/6/09).

UK – contract awarded for MSC NAPOLI wreck removal The UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) issued a press notice stating that a contract has been awarded for removal of the stern section of the wreck of the MSC NAPOLI. The scrap is to be delivered to a recovery facility in the Netherlands. (1/6/09).

RS

Met Office mystery over rare ice circle formed in Devon

Met Office mystery over rare ice circle formed in Devon

An unusual rotating ice circle, normally found in the cooler rivers of Scandinavia or North America, has formed in the UK waterways.

The cause of the rare phenomenon is unclear, with very little scientific evidence available to explain the formation of the discs. UFO-enthusiasts claim that, like crop circles, the perfect discs are created by visiting aliens, but scientists believe the extreme cold weather combined with an unusual current is the more likely reason.

The 10ft disc was seen by a rambler on the River Otter in Devon, who estimated that it was spinning through 360 degrees every four minutes.

The Meteorological Office said today that they could not explain why the ice circle appeared last week.

“We’re kind of a bit stumped to be honest,” a spokesman said. “Our best guess, and it is a guess, would be that it was formed by some kind of a circular eddy set up in the river. We have not seen anything like this before and we’ve no idea why they seem to be more common in Scandinavia.”

The disc was spotted on January 7 as temperatures in southern England reached as low as minus 10C. The freeze caused unusual behaviour amongst British wildlife, which is ill prepared for such conditions. The rare cold snap may also have caused the ice formation, which has been recently recorded and investigated in the US and Sweden.

Mystery has surrounded the discs since they were first described as long ago as the nineteenth century. A drawing of an ice circle was published in the Scientific American in 1895. Illustrated London News also catalogued one that formed near Toronto in 1930 under the headline “Jack Frost describes a circle”.

The lack of a clear explanation from the scientific community allowed conspiracy theorists to add the ice circles to the annals of “unexplained phenomena” until 1993 when MIT attempted to end the debate.

Ice circles began to form on the Charles River in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which runs through the MIT campus, prompting scientists at the university to study their formation. David Ricks, an ocean engineering graduate, helped systematically rule out effluent from submerged pipes, down draughts from helicopters, alien activity, bubbles from decomposition and underwater springs.

He concluded that eddies from the Harvard bridge caused parts of the sheet ice to break away and the movement of the ice created circular holes which were filled by further ice formation. Other theories suggest that slow moving rivers can create eddies which spin the ice until it takes on a circular shape.

Photographs of the phenomenon emerged from Russia recently, and it appears that the discs are quite common in Norway as well as Sweden, where they have been recorded on the River Ljusnan measuring up to 200m wide, as well as on the River Pite and on Lake Hotagssjon.

WEATHER NOTE

Flooding like that which devastated the North of England last year is set to become a common event across the UK in the next 75 years, new research has shown.

Flooding like that which devastated the North of England last year is set to become a common event across the UK in the next 75 years, new research has shown.

A study by Dr Hayley Fowler, of Newcastle University, predicts that severe storms - the likes of which currently occur every five to 25 years across the UK - will become more common and more severe in a matter of decades.

Looking at 'extreme rainfall events' - where rain falls steadily and heavily for between one and five days - the study predicts how the intensity of these storms may change in the future.

Dr Fowler found that across the UK, the amount of rain falling during one of these extreme events was likely to increase by up to 30 per cent by 2080. This increase is most likely to occur in autumn, winter and spring when the ground is already saturated, posing the biggest threat of flooding.

Dr Fowler, Reader in Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle, explained: "Predicting how extreme rainfall might change many years in the future is very difficult because events can be quite localised, especially in the summer.

"You only have to think about how difficult it is for the Met office to predict the weather two or three days in advance - the overall picture for the country tends to stay the same but local weather patterns can change quite dramatically.

"By taking a much more detailed look at the results from different regional climate models, we have created a more accurate picture of how wet Britain will be by 2070.

"What the data quite clearly shows is that we're going to see far more of these extreme downpours in years to come, putting more and more homes at risk from flooding, particularly in autumn and winter months when the ground is already saturated."

The research, published online today in the International Journal of Climatology, looks at changes to seasonal extreme rainfall across the UK by 2070-2100.

Dr Fowler, who worked on the study with Dr Marie Ekstrom from Exeter University, examined seasonal rainfall data from 13 Regional Climate Models for nine regions across the UK and used this to study the projected changes.

Consistent with global warming, the team found that as the air becomes warmer and is able to hold more moisture, Britain will get wetter.

In general, the study suggests larger changes to the intensity of short duration extreme rainfall events - those lasting one or two days. Northern and western regions of the UK are predicted to be worst hit.

Dr Fowler added: "Unfortunately, we still have least confidence in the model's predictions for the summer months and it is still highly uncertain how summer flash flooding such as the Hull and Hereford and Worcester floods in 2007 will change.

"What our data does show is that floods are no longer going to be freak events. All 13 models we looked at predict increases in extreme rainfall in winter, autumn and spring by the 2080s although the percent increase varies.

"This has major implications for flood risk management. We need to be looking now at where we build new homes, drainage systems and water storage in order to protect our homes and businesses from flooding in the future."

Episodes of short-term extreme rainfall - such as was seen in Morpeth in 2008 - are predicted to increase in intensity by between 15 and 30 per cent.

In winter, one day downpours are predicted to increase in intensity in all regions with Scotland and northern England seeing changes of more than 20 per cent. Smaller increases are projected for southern regions, particularly south-east England.

In autumn, some regional climate models project potentially very large increases in extreme rainfall, with a rise of up to 60 per cent in some regions such as north-west England.

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by the Newcastle University

MARITIME NOTE

Stranded men call pub for rescue

Two Frenchmen who became stranded on a Cornish cliff with their dog have been rescued after calling a pub for help.

The trio were cut off by the tide in Trebarwith Strand, but did not know who to call for assistance, the Maritime and Coastguard Agency said.

The men decided to call a directory inquiry service and ask for the number of a pub they had passed earlier in the day - The Port William, near Tintagel.

Dozens of people went outside the pub with their pints to watch the rescue.
Pub owner Sue Sleight, 56, said the men were unable to pinpoint their exact location.

"We picked up the phone and the signal wasn't very good, and obviously they were foreign," she said.

"I thought he was saying the road was closed and he wanted to know how to get to the pub, because he kept saying he was stuck.

"But I soon realised he was on the beach. We went out but couldn't see anything, and we thought we just had to phone the coastguard.

"To be honest, if we hadn't phoned the coastguard, they could have been there all night. The coastguard were just brilliant."

The RNLI lifeboat from Port Isaac and Boscastle coastguard rescue team were called out to search the cliffs near Trebarwith Strand and the men, aged 21 and 35, were found, along with their dog.

A Royal Navy helicopter from Culdrose lifted them from the cliffs. All were unharmed. Peter Bullard, watch manager at Falmouth Coastguard, said: "The two French men were unaware of the 999 or 112 emergency numbers and so decided to call a pub that they had passed on the way to the beach.

"It's very fortunate that we found them as quickly as we did."


RS

The day a F4 tornado hit Wallingford Conneticut

The day a F4 tornado hit Wallingford Conneticut

AMERICAN STANDARD - BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 15TH 1878

( FROM THE HISTORY CELLAR BLOG )

Greetings. In this 1878 paper I found a article on a tornado disaster that I was not aware of. In 1953 a massive tornado hit Worcester MA which is now the deadliest tornado to hit New England. This Connecticut tornado had that title until then.

If you look at this chart from the USA TODAY, it is not unusual when tornado's hit this area, but it is at this magnitude. The article below is slightly difficult to read - it is transcribed below at the end of this post. Also there are some interesting photos and engravings below of the disaster.

The Wallingford Tornado was the deadliest tornado ever to strike the state of Connecticut, and the second deadliest ever in New England. It struck the town of Wallingford, Connecticut on August 9, 1878. The violent tornado destroyed most of the town, killing 34 people and injuring at least 70, many severely.[1] The tornado started as a waterspout over Community Lake, just west of town.

It then moved through the center of town along Christian Street, damaging almost every structure as it went. The tornado tore houses from their foundations, throwing some more than 600 feet (180 meters).

A receipt from the town was later found 65 miles (105 km) east in Peacedale, Rhode Island.[2]A district schoolhouse was converted into a temporary morgue immediately after the storm; 21 bodies were discovered and placed there that night. One person was found dead 3300 feet (1 km) from where he had been standing.[3]More than 50 special police were sworn in to prevent looting, and to control the crowds of curious onlookers who had come by train from surrounding cities.[4]

DESTRUCTIVE STORM!

Great Loss of Life and ProperlyHouses, Barns and Trees Hurled tothe Ground.Wallingford, Conn, AUG 9, A terribletornado passed over Wallingford about sixo'clock this afternoon, and blew overhouses, uprooted trees, and caused thegreatest devastation. It is estimated thatthe killed will number at present at leastwhile the wounded will reach twicethat number.

Telegraph wires and poleswere blown down, making it impossible; tocommunicate with New Haven or thesouth or Meriden or Hartford to the north.Word was finally sent by the up 7 o'clocktrain to the two latter places, and on thenext down express, which leaves Meridenat 7:30 o'clock. came physicians and help.

The greatest excitement prevails, and thewildest rumors are afloat as to the loss oflife. The tornado was confined to a belt ofterritory about half a mile wide, and thewhole loss of life took place on the sandplains about a quarter mile north of therailroad station, near the line of the NewYork, New Haven and Hartford Railroad.At 6 o'clock, while the men were leaving the factory, a gentle rain began to fall, andsoon increased to a perfect deluge, whilealmost continuous arid vivid lightningilluminated the darkened sky as bright asday, and the thunder rolled with an unceasingand deafening roar.

Without warning,the tornado, with hail and rain, sweptacross the northern part of the town, fromwest to cast, anti everything movable in itscourse was carried away. It seemed to lastbut a moment, but the results were fright-ful.

Afterward a light rain fell, and thissoon ceased, and at 8 o'clock the moonshone brightly down upon a scene of desolation.By actual count, forty dwellinghouses were demolished, and at least fifty barns.

WEATHER NOTE

What the storm has wrought’
By Paulita RoaPast Speaks

THE recent flood that hit Cagayan de Oro in the early morning of Saturday, January 3, 2009 brought back stories that old families had of a bigger deluge that happened 93 years ago on January, 1916. A strong typhoon brought continuous heavy rain for three days (some said that it rained for 16 days) to the town. The Kagay-anons found this unusual for Cagayan then was never visited by typhoons.

Arroyo Watch: Sun.Star blog on President Arroyo [1]

In that 1916 typhoon, the Cagayan River overflowed its banks. The waters entered the cogon areas of Macasandig, past the coconut grooves till it reached Camaman-an and the present site of the Cogon public market. In the Poblacion, all of Divisoria and Pabayo St. (then known as Calle Nueva), were underwater. Residents had to navigate around that area by boats. Many people died or went missing during the flood including a great number of animals. Farmlands were leveled and crops destroyed.

When the flood waters receded, the town smelled from the stench of the rotting animal carcasses. There was a severe lack of potable drinking water and sanitation was a big problem.

Then cholera came and spread throughout Cagayan.

At that time, a young 32 year old American named Dr. Frank Laubach was living in Cagayan with his wife Effa, a nurse, and their sons in Calle Burgos near the river. He was the first missionary sent to establish a mission station here by the American Presbyterian Board. The two chapels that he built in Bonbon and in Barra were washed away by the flood. The Laubachs did all they can to help the sick and the grieving families. He also dispatched his group of young people to the Municipio to assist in sending information on ways to sanitize their houses to prevent cholera from spreading.

Cholera then turned into epidemic proportions and many people were dying daily. A relative recalled that his granduncle attended the funeral of a cholera victim and 24 hours later, he also died of the same disease and was buried at once. The death count was so high that corpses were placed in carromatas and were buried on mass graves far away from Cagayan. A pall of heavy grief could be felt for each family lost a relative or two from cholera. It is said that after witnessing the twin tragedies, Dr. Laubach, known as a man of piety and prayer, got on his knees and dedicated the town to the most Almighty God.

Ninety three years later, another big flood visited Cagayan de Oro. Rev. Alex Eduave told his congregation that they still have to be thankful to the Lord for the deluge came early in the morning and the damage was not as massive as the 1916 flood. Had this happened at night, the calamity would have been of tragic proportions for hundreds would have died or gone missing. Many agreed with the observation of Mayor Constantino Jaraula that since much of our forests have been converted to farmlands, there are now very few big trees that can protect the city from the floods.

We need to take the necessary steps now in order to prevent a tragedy similar to the one that befell Ormoc years ago from happening here. Though the recent flood was traumatic to many of us, it was also a way of reminding us that we have to do something about our almost denuded forests before it is too late. We need to have a viable environmental program with the active participation of the citizenry so our lives, and our city as well, can be saved from another big natural disaster.

MARITIME NOTE

Fishermen question rescue response
Gloucester tragedy remains a mystery
By Stephanie Ebbert and Brian R. Ballou, Globe Staff January 9, 2009

GLOUCESTER - As Gloucester lay to rest two fishermen who died in a mysterious accident at sea, their fellow seamen raised concerns about a published report that said the Coast Guard did not launch a search-and-rescue mission for more than 2 1/2 hours after it was alerted that the vessel was in trouble.

The Coast Guard command in Boston did not begin searching for the missing boat, called the Patriot, until nearly 4 a.m. on Saturday, the Gloucester Times reported yesterday. The Fire Department had responded to a 1:17 a.m. fire alarm broadcast by the boat, discovered that the Patriot was not at port, and contacted the wife of one of the fishermen, who said he was out at sea. She then contacted the Coast Guard for help.

Coast Guard Captain Gail Kulisch, commander of the Coast Guard Sec tor in Boston, would not confirm the timeline at a news conference last night, where she said repeatedly that the Coast Guard had responded immediately but had to follow an established protocol for its response. Though the Coast Guard is conducting a case study of its response - as is routine in fatalities - the command was ready and reacted quickly, she said.

"They are always poised. They are guardians," Kulisch said. "We joined to save lives. That's what we do and we take this business very, very seriously."

The Coast Guard has learned that another vessel was in the area at the time of the accident and is investigating whether there was a collision or whether anyone witnessed what happened to the Patriot, she said.

Kulisch said the case was unusual because it was triggered by a fire alarm on the vessel and reported by a fisherman's wife. The Patriot had a device that sends out a signal in an emergency showing its location, but it did not work until hours later, when the Coast Guard was already at the scene, she said.

A Coast Guard commander told the Gloucester Times on Wednesday that the agency could not launch a response effort without knowing the boat's approximate location. But the Patriot was equipped with a vessel-monitoring system that lets the Coast Guard track its location. Since November 2006, fishermen have been required to use those tracking devices so the government can keep tabs on their whereabouts and guard against overfishing. The Patriot had broadcast signals of its location as recently as 12:30 a.m. Saturday, the Times reported.

Kulisch said that whatever happened to the Patriot appeared to have been quick: The men, both experienced fishermen, were not wearing survival gear they had on board.

Yesterday, fishermen and a lawyer who represents them questioned whether the technology used so readily by the Coast Guard to penalize fishermen for straying into protected waters could have been used more effectively to try to save the two fishermen lost at sea.

"It's kind of like wearing an ankle monitoring bracelet, so they know where you are at all times," said Stephen M. Ouellette, a lawyer whose primarily represents fishermen. "It's always tough to second-guess these people, but they spend so much time and energy chasing fishermen down for violations."

It was unclear yesterday whether the time lost would have made a difference to the fishermen in the frigid water of the Middle Bank, 15 miles off Gloucester. But some fishermen said they found the Coast Guard's response time troubling.

"The whole sinking is a mystery to begin with, but the response is rather distressing for those of us who have to rely upon the system," said Paul Cohan of Beverly, who fishes out of Gloucester.

Investigators have not determined what caused the Patriot, a well-kept, 54-foot, steel-hulled trawler, to founder. The owner, Matteo Russo, was killed along with his father-in-law and fishing partner, John Orlando. Kulisch said the Coast Guard is trying to restrict the area around the sunken boat, but the family wants to hire its own divers to investigate.

At the fishermen's funeral yesterday in Gloucester, the close-knit fishing community filled Saint Ann Church, leaving only standing room. Several men with gray facial stubble and in heavy winter jackets sat among the crowd and whispered in Italian, shaking their heads from side to side as they looked at the coffins.

Family, friends, and well-wishers paid respects to Russo, a 36-year-old father whose wife is expecting a second child, and Orlando, a 58-year old father of two.

The Rev. Ronald Gariboldi told the approximately 700 mourners that he was approached by Russo's mother moments before the funeral began. Josephine Russo looked at him with teary eyes and said her son's death was a mystery.

The service was laden with references to the industry that has characterized Gloucester. A prayer was made for those who go out to sea and those who wait for them on shore. The Gloucester Times reported that the Coast Guard in Boston, before launching a search, ordered its Gloucester station to double-check the Fire Department's conclusion that the boat was not in the port. That cost an hour, the newspaper reported.

The Times also reported that the search was delayed while officials at the Coast Guard command in Boston tried to contact the crew of the Patriot by phone and e-mail, after the wife of one of the men said he was not answering calls. A dispatcher also called the boat's former owner, who told him it had been sold, according to the Times.

Study Evaluates U.S. Maritime Policies

The Maritime Administration has issued a new study that evaluates the adequacy of current U.S. maritime policy to meet the commercial, economic, security and environmental needs of the nation over the next three decades.The report titled, ìAn Evaluation of Maritime Policy in Meeting the Commercial and Security Needs of the United States,î was researched and prepared by IHS Global Insight, Inc., of Lexington, Mass.

The 72-page report finds that current U.S. maritime policy only supports Americaís domestic maritime trades and is not supportive of U.S. participation in the international trades. However, the study also advises that possible reforms in national policy may lend more support to the U.S. maritime industry.Maritime Administrator Sean T. Connaughton said, It is clear that marine transportation is the most important mode of transportation for future growth of the U.S. economy; but current U.S. policy does not seem to reflect the importance of this modeóand for America to succeed, it must.

To help create a more robust marine transportation system, Administrator Connaughton continues to advise U.S. policymakers that government support of the freight transport system must anticipate and respond to potential shipping bottlenecks that cause delays and undermine regional and national economic growth.

The main task for policymakers, he says, is to ensure that the maritime system will have adequate capacity and reliability to transport ever increasing volumes of cargo and numbers of people in an efficient and environmentally sound manner.

The full report and its findings are available online at Maritime Administration web site, http://www.blogger.com/www.marad.dot.gov.

FROM HOLLAND AND KNIGHT

Bill introduced re ocean and coastal observations

Senator Snowe (R-ME) introduced the Coastal and Ocean Observation System Act of 2009 (S. 171) to develop and maintain an integrated system of coastal and ocean observations for the Nation's coasts, oceans, and Great Lakes, to improve warnings of tsunami, hurricanes, El Nino events, and other natural hazards, to enhance homeland security, to support maritime operations, to improve management of coastal and marine resources, and for other purposes. (1/8/09).

Have a really super weekend and ...STAY WARM!

RS

Climate Clues In Southern Ocean: Ocean Currents Surprisingly Resistant To Intensifying Winds

Climate Clues In Southern Ocean: Ocean Currents Surprisingly Resistant To Intensifying Winds

ScienceDaily (Dec. 2, 2008) — The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is the current system with the largest volume transport in the world ocean. Between 40° and 60°S strong westerlies move about 140 million cubic meters of water per second around the Antarctic continent (this is about five times the transport of the Gulf Stream).

Vertical motions associated with this current have been responsible for transporting a substantial fraction of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere to the deep ocean, thereby effectively damping the rate of global warming.

Investigations in this key region of the world ocean have been hampered by a sparse database due to the logistical challenges for ship based expeditions in the high-latitude Southern Ocean.

“In our study we used data obtained by the international Argo Programme”, explains Prof. Claus Böning from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) in Kiel, Germany. Argo is a system of currently 3000 autonomous free-floating robotic systems which are surveying the world ocean. Every 10 days these buoys measure temperature and salinity profiles over the upper 2000 meters. These measurements are transmitted to land stations via satellite. “For this study about 52,000 profiles of more than 600 Argo-drifters in the Southern Ocean were used and compared with historic ship measurements”, explains oceanographer Astrid Dispert from IFM-GEOMAR. For this analysis the extensive archives of the Australian marine research centre in Hobart, Tasmania were also used.

As expected, the observations in the subpolar ocean demonstrate an increase of water temperature and a decrease in salinity at the same time. Nevertheless, in contradiction to the simulations of various climate models the data show no significant changes in water transport. “Our results point to one important thing: Eddies which are currently not resolved in climate models might be the key process in controlling the transport of the ACC”, Prof. Böning explains. Hence, his conclusion is that investigations with high-resolution ocean models are required to test this hypothesis. “Of course, besides the simulations we also need further observations”, adds Prof. Martin Visbeck (IFM-GEOMAR). “Thanks to the international Argo observations programme we now have continuously access to data from a worldwide network of more than 3000 profiling-drifters. This is a quantum leap in the field of ocean observations, which, together with high resolution modelling gives us new insights about long-term changes in the ocean.“

Further investigations have to show whether the results are robust. If confirmed, this would in one way be good news: Until now the Southern Ocean is the biggest oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide and therefore a crucial regulator for the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Climate models predicted a severe reduction in the southern ocean carbon dioxide uptake due to wind-forced changes in the current fields. Now high-resolution models are needed to assess the role of the hitherto unresolved ocean eddies in the Southern Ocean’s response to the progressive changes in the atmospheric conditions.

WEATHER NOTE

Venice under water

Duckboards and elevated walkways were set up throughout Venice today and elderly residents were carried to dry ground, as the city faced its worst flooding for two decades.

A woman wakls on Piazza San Marco yesterday. Nearly all the streets of the city were underwater. Pic: AFP

As sirens blared throughout the city, the Mayor Massimo Cacciari asked prospective tourists to not to visit - and advised those already there not to move around unless it was "unavoidable" because of the "exceptional" situation. "Anyone thinking of coming to Venice should think again," he said.

As the sea surged into St Mark's Square, arguably Venice's most famous landmark, it became completely submerged under eighty centimetres of water. In total, more than 95% of the rest of central Venice was flooded and some pontoon bridges began floating away in the rising tide, leaving residents stranded in their homes.

Driven by strong winds and heavy rain, the water rose to 156cm above sea level - the highest "acqua alta" since 158cm in 1986. Sirens sounded as the Venice tide monitoring centre warned that the water could rise to over 160 centimetres for the first time in thirty years.

The worst floods took place in 1966 when the waters reached a record 194 centimetres above sea level, causing devastation to homes, shops and historic monuments and art works. Flooding of 100-130cm above sea level is common in the lagoon city in autumn and winter.

As today's floods intensified, workers set up duckboards and elevated walkways as the sirens sounded, and text messages with warnings and updates were sent to those who have registered with the flood warning centre on their mobile phones. Elderly residents were carried to dry ground, and homes and shops activated their ground floor pumps.

The plight of Venetians and visitors was compounded by a national transport strike which affected the Venice "vaporetto" or water bus service.

Giancarlo Galan, head of the Veneto region, said the transport workers had chosen a bad time to strike. "I'd like to give them a medal for their sense of responsibility," Mr Galan said sarcastically.

A floating flood barrier is under construction at three entrances from the Adriatic into the lagoon, but is not due to go into operation until 2012 at the earliest. The authorities are also considering a scheme to raise the city's buildings by up to a metre using piston-supported-poles.

The growing severity and frequency of floods is attributed to silt deposits raising the floor of the lagoon and a rise in sea levels caused by global warming.

However Mr Cacciari played down alarm, saying flooding was part of everyday life in Venice. "We get sea levels of 140m, 160m every few years," the Mayor said. Italian meteorologists said the entire country was being affected by bad weather, with driving rain, snow, hail and high winds causing flooding "from the Alps to Palermo".

Many roads in Piedmont, Liguria and Lombardy were closed, and Rome was hit by hail and rainstorms, with fallen trees blocking roads and cars submerged in flooded road tunnels.

Researchers Use Sun Cycle to Predict Rainfall Fluctuations

(PhysOrg.com) -- The sun’s magnetic field may have a significant impact on weather and climatic parameters in Australia and other countries in the northern and southern hemispheres.

ccording to a study in Geographical Research published by Wiley-Blackwell, the droughts in eastern Australia are related to the solar magnetic phases and not the greenhouse effect.

The study titled “Exploratory Analysis of Similarities in Solar Cycle Magnetic Phases with Southern Oscillation Index Fluctuation in Eastern Australia” uses data from 1876 to the present to examine the correlation between solar cycles and the extreme rainfall in Australia.

It finds that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) – the basic tool for forecasting variations in global and oceanic patterns – and rainfall fluctuations recorded over the last decade are similar to those in 1914 -1924.

Author Professor Robert G. V. Baker from the School of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Australia, says, “The interaction between the directionality in the Sun’s and Earth’s magnetic fields, the incidence of ultraviolet radiation over the tropical Pacific, and changes in sea surface temperatures with cloud cover, could contribute to an explanation of substantial changes in the SOI from solar cycle fluctuations. If solar cycles continue to show relational values to climate patterns, there is the potential for more accurate forecasting through to 2010 and possibly beyond.”

The SOI-solar association has been investigated recently due to increasing interest in the relationship between the sun’s cycles and the climate. The solar application offers the potential for the long-range prediction of SOI behavior and associated rainfall variations, since quasi-periodicity in solar activity results in an expected cycle of situations and phases that are not random events.

Professor Baker adds, “This discovery could substantially advance forecasting from months to decades. It should result in much better long-term management of agricultural production and water resources, in areas where rainfall is correlated to SOI and El Niño (ENSO) events.”

This paper is published in the December 2008 issue of Geographical Research Vol. 46 Issue 4. (Report)

MARITIME NOTE

Science Speaks: Rogue Waves are Real

'Rogue wave approaching on ship Nathaniel B Palmer' .

Every year sound sailing boats, well equipped with safety gear, with experienced crew on board, go missing. Their loved ones are forever left wondering: Was it a whale? a floating container? a rogue wave?

In the past, some scientists wrote off 'rogue waves' as rare or even mythology.

Rogue waves on NOAA ship Discoverer in the Bering Sea - .. .

However, satellite data collected by the European Space Agency's (ESA) ERS satellites has confirmed what too many ship captains have come to know (and occasionally captured photographs). Ocean waves that rise as tall as ten-story apartment buildings are a leading cause of large ship sinkings.

The Norwegian Dawn, a 965-foot ocean liner , was sailing back to New York from the Bahamas on April 16 2005 when it was struck by a rogue 70-foot wave. The wave smashed windows and sent furniture flying, but the ship survived and the crew lived to record the wave's arrival.

A sailing boat faced with such a wave would have little chance of survival, and if it came at night, maybe not even the chance to hit the EPIRB.

A giant wave can form when strong winds beat against an opposing ocean current, when waves from different storms join forces, or when swells interact in strange ways with a particular seafloor.

Wave Height Predictions off the coast of Massachusetts - .. . Click Here to view large photo

Since 2005, Vijay Panchang at the A&M University at Galveston in Texas and his associates say they can accurately predict the daily height of waves anywhere off the coast of the United States for the next 48 hours across spaces as close as 500 yards apart.

A buoy off the coast of Alabama recently recorded an average wave height of 16 meters before the gauge broke, Panchang said. Since that figure is just an average of measurement of a sea-state, the biggest wave at that location was probably twice that size--32 meters, or about 100 feet.

'There were oil platforms destroyed,' said Panchang, who requires his wave mechanics students to read The Perfect Storm. 'The sheer magnitude of these things amazes me.'

Severe weather has sunk more than 200 supertankers and container ships more than 200 yards long in the past two decades, an ESA analysis found.

Counting waves from space:

The two ERS satellites equipped with radar carry out a global rogue wave census and arrive at the truth.

Without aerial, cloud-penetrating radar, scientists could only go on radar data on waves collected from oil platforms.

The radar instruments on the satellites detected the height of individual waves at the surface in 3-mile by 6-mile patches of the sea. Three weeks of data, including 30,000 of these patches or 'imagettes' of the sea with their wave height information were analyzed and searched for extreme waves at the German Aerospace Center.

A scientific team counted more than ten individual giant waves around the globe more than 75 feet high during the three-week period.

What can the cruising sailor do?

Rogue wave approaching in the Bay of Biscay Fall 1993 - NOAA - .. .

There are a few things that long range cruisers can do when setting off, apart from the obvious ones like never travelling close to a cyclone season, taking particular note of existing currents, and watching the weather like your life depends on it - because it does.

If there are different swells meeting, the other most obvious rule is to stay away from underwater mountains and ranges, where rogue waves are likely to develop if other conditions accumulate. There are many examples of underwater disturbances on the world's charts, eg. between Madeira and the Canary Islands, between Sydney and Lord Howe Island, and between Palmerston Atoll and Tonga.

Another underwater feature to be avoided is the underwater cliff, which often occurs close to coastlines. One of the most notorious of these is in the Bay of Biscay, where the depth changes from thousands of meters to a few hundred in a short distance.

To find examples of Vijay Panchang's wave predictions, which do not exist for all parts of the world, click here


RS

Computers Determine When To Stop Searches For Missing People At Sea

Computers Determine When To Stop Searches For Missing People At Sea

ScienceDaily (Nov. 27, 2008) — British researchers are developing a new computer model to predict how long someone will survive when lost at sea, which will in turn determine when a search and rescue operation may be stopped.

The Search and Rescue Survival Model is being developed by the University of Portsmouth’s Sports Science and Mathematics departments and the US Coast Guard.

It aims to support the US Coast Guard target of saving 93 per cent of victims annually - between 3000-6000 people - whose lives are in danger at sea.

“Using this new computer model will take pressure off humans making very emotional and sensitive decisions about when to end a search,” said Professor Mike Tipton, human and applied physiologist, from the University of Portsmouth.

“When the model predicts that a victim can no longer survive, the search and rescue team can stop or redeploy the search.

“It will ensure that Coast Guard personnel are not exposed to the high risks associated with search and rescue operations any longer than necessary and will also help to save time and resources,” he said.

The US Coast Guard currently uses a software system known as SAROPS (Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System) to calculate how far a person will have drifted and how large the search area should be.

Data such as wind speed, sea state and water temperature is entered into SAROPS along with information about the victim’s sex, height, weight and what they were wearing to determine exactly how the search should be conducted.

“Calculating survival time will add another layer to SAROPS; it will be able to predict not only where a search should be conducted but when it should be stopped,” said Professor Tipton.

Chris Turner, Ocean Engineer and Manager for the project for the US Coast Guard in Groton, Connecticut, sought the help of the university because of its international reputation for expertise in the area of survival in the sea.

“The University of Portsmouth has been able to tap into and analyze data held by the Institute of Naval Medicine and the Royal National Lifeboats Institution, both critical to the development of this survival model. To our knowledge no other similar repository of this information exists - even in the US.

“The development of this technology is very exciting. It will be trialled in American waters in late 2009 and once thoroughly tested, the aim is to roll it out to the whole of the US,” he said.

WEATHER NOTE

Weather disasters claimed 15,000 lives, report says

Stevie Emilia, The Jakarta Post, Poznan, Poland

More than 15,000 people across the world died last year from extreme weather, which also caused US$80 billion in damages, a report released Thursday at the ongoing UN climate change talks here revealed.

The Global Climate Risk Index 2009 by the environment and development group Germanwatch puts Bangladesh at the top of the list of countries most affected by weather-related disasters last year.

Bangladesh, which suffered heavily from cyclone Sidr that killed more than 4,000 people and caused $10 billion in damages, was followed by North Korea and Nicaragua.

Sven Harmeling, the group's senior advisor for climate and development, and author of the study, said many people had been severely affected by storms, floods and other weather extremes.

"People in less-developed countries have a far harder time coping with such events compared with their peers in industrialized countries," he said.

Hurricane Katrina caused $215 billion in damages when it devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast three years ago, making it the most expensive storm in history.

While no single weather disaster can be directly attributed to global warming, Harmeling warned the changing climate would most certainly lead to an increase in their frequency and intensity in many parts of the world.

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change earlier warned that climate change this year was likely to make extreme weather events more frequent and possibly more intense too.

Germanwatch, which first calculated the global climate risk in 2006, derived data for the present study from a database compiled by German insurance giant Munich Re.

The report analyzes how severely countries were affected in 2007 and in the past decade, or from 1998-2007, by weather-related events, including floods, heat waves and storms. It excluded droughts or sea-level rises -- long-term events that are harder to evaluate.

In the latest report, a total of 1,066 disasters were registered last year, causing 15,240 fatalities and economic losses of over $70.1 billion.

Indonesia came in at seventh place on the Down 10 list of countries with the highest death tolls, recording 470 deaths last year, and was ranked eight in the list of Down 10 countries with highest absolute losses, with a total of $3.09 billion.

"We're witnessing a strong increase in disasters, particularly the climate-related ones, in terms of the number of disasters, economic damage and people affected," said Maarten van Aalst, associated director of the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Center in The Hague.

"This is partly due to rising vulnerability, partly already reflecting global climate change, a trend which is bound to continue."

Apart from providing assistance when disaster strikes, van Aalst said the most effective response was disaster mitigation, stressing that "reducing the impact of the increasing hazards is crucial. Practical risk reduction options include better early warning, drought resistant crops or reforestation to prevent floods."

The report, which aims to give pointers about a country's vulnerability to climate change, proposes the inclusion of insurance instruments in the post-2012 regime.

In the Bali conference last December, the Bali Action Plan called for the "consideration of risk sharing and transfer mechanisms such as insurance" to deal with loss and damage in developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change.

The ongoing Poznan conference serves as a bridge to the next conference, in Copenhagen, Denmark, to agree on a new deal to replace the climate treaty Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

"The Copenhagen treaty can introduce the necessary support mechanism with both prevention and insurance pillars," said Germanwatch executive director Christopher Bals.

"It is very positive that concrete proposals for risk management and insurance are today discussed in detail in Poznan."

Tornado confirmed in Palm Bay

BY KIMBERLY C. MOORE
FLORIDA TODAY

PALM BAY — National Weather Service meteorologists confirmed today that the windstorm that damaging more than a dozen homes in Palm Bay on Sunday was a tornado.

“It was kind of hopscotching,” National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Kelly said. “It did touch down, but it was very spotty. It was not a continuous track.”

Palm Bay residents spent Monday cleaning up their yards and dragging tree branches to the curb. Some homes had blue tarps on roofs. And contractors already were out, giving homeowners estimates to repair the damage.

Palm Bay officials did not yet have a dollar estimate of how much damage the tornado did.

No one was injured.

Keith Rittscher, 63, found the roof of his plastic shed near a neighbor’s home about 25 yards away from his Holiday Park house.

“That’s my roof,” he said, pointing to a tangled web of aluminum wedged into Australian pines behind his house.

Nearby, a collection of plastic pieces rested against his home’s back wall.

“This is my shed,” Rittscher said.

Rittscher estimated that damage to the home, which is uninsured for property damage, probably is about $20,000. He said he and his wife have enough to cover the cost.

“We’re OK,” he said.

The roof of one home on Emerson Drive at Consumer Street had several shingles ripped off.

Along Velvet and Ritter avenues on the east side of Interstate 95, residents picked up branches torn from trees and propped up trees knocked over by the powerful winds.

It was the same story east of Babcock Street, along Edith Street and Cambridge Avenue.

Kelly said Palm Bay got lucky. A stronger storm might have claimed lives.

“There could’ve been more chance for fatalities if trees had fallen on those homes,” he said.

In Holiday Park, a community of manufactured homes, Don Clark spent the morning with two contractors, getting bids for his roof.

A blue tarp now is tied in place to shield their home.

In the backyard, the doors of his shed remain, but the rest of the structured vanished in the whirlwind. In addition, the storm ripped off the slats of his hurricane shutters.

“They were all twisted up in knots,” he said.

But, he said, he is grateful.

“We’re doing good,” Clark said. “We’re just happy to be safe.”

MARITIME NOTE

Loading is first area to probe in ship sinking: experts

Updated Fri. Dec. 5 2008 1:50 PM ET

The Canadian Press

HALIFAX -- Experts say the loading of a cargo vessel that sank off Newfoundland, with the loss of four sailors, should be the first area investigators probe to unravel the mystery of its sudden capsizing.

The Cap Blanc stopped communicating with the coast guard at 8:30 p.m. local time on Monday as it crossed Placentia Bay.

Ten hours later, aircraft discovered a portion of the sinking hull of the vessel from the French islands of St-Pierre-Miquelon.

None of the four sailors on board was found, and the joint rescue co-ordination centre declared the active sea search over late Thursday.

In St-Pierre-Miquelon, the father-in-law of the captain says a full inquiry is needed into the sinking of the ship, which was carrying a load of road salt.

Eric Snow, who spent 30 years doing marine investigations for Canadian government agencies, says "the first thing you have to do" is go to the companies involved and ask how the vessel was loaded, and how the cargo was secured.

The lead investigator in the accident is a French transportation safety agency, which is being assisted by the Transportation Safety Board of Canada.

Floods knock out Port of Itajaí

The Brazilian port has been devastated by flash floods. Ironically, the controversial PortoNave container terminal, on the other side of the river, has been the least affected facility

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has visited the flood stricken port of Itajaí to see for himself the damage caused by floods that have now taken the lives of 99 people in the state of Santa Catarina (and the numbers and extent of the damage are rising almost by the hour).

Reports suggest that 12 people have perished in the floods in the port city itself, and the raging torrent of the River Itajaí -Acu – flowing at more than 24 kmh when the average is normallya round 2 kmh – have destroyed much of the infrastructure of the country’s number two port for containers.

Lula has declared Itajaí and the state of Santa Catarina a disaster zone and met the president of Itajaí Port Authority (API) Arnaldo Schmitt to discuss rescue and various reconstruction plans, and how best to divert federal resources to the port.

Ports Minister Pedro Brito has sent a special task force of military and civilian engineers to Itaja to work out the best way to repair damages and get the port open as soon as possible. Latest news is that Lula has promised at least US$150M to reconstruct the port.

Two of the port’s three berths have been completely destroyed and the port is now shut to all commercial traffic. In the state of Santa Catarina some 76,000 people are homeless and 160,000 homes are still without power supplies, according to the state energy company Celesc.

API spokeswoman Patrícia Barcelos told WorldCargo News: “We had 90% of the city of Itajaí under 2m of water, it’s an absolute catastrophe. It has barely stopped raining for two months and we are supposed to be entering the summer period.

“The number one Berth has been washed away by the river, as has half of number three berth. We think number four berth is intact but cant get the divers down to inspect until the water flow reduces.”

The APM Terminals’ container terminal in Itajaí, Teconvi, has suffered very heavy damage with Pier One mostly disappearing into the river torrent. However, no personnel were hurt.

Teconvi’s commercial manager Patrício Júnior said: “The port of Itajaí will receive emergency funding for dredging and that will allow us to clear the river and hopefully start dredging berth zero. Dredging is of the utmost priority and works are expected to be finished only by mid December.” Berth zero is a new berth that had almost entered into service for Teconvi.

With many quay and paved back-up areas at the port seriously damaged, carriers such as Maersk Line, CMA CGM and Hamburg Süd are seeking alternative ports of call, including Santos, Rio Grande and Paranaguá. However, many of these “alternatives”are already seriously congested. The port of São Francisco do Sul – some 60 km away from Itajaí- has also been closed due to the weather but may open within the next few days, according to API officials.

Ironically, the controversial Portonave facility – just a short hop across the river from Itajaí in Navegantes – has escaped from the calamity relatively unscathed and could open for business within a week or two once the strong currents recede and a link road to the terminal is re-opened.

Henrik Simon, the director of reefer services for Hamburg Süd, ECSA trades, said: “The whole shipping community of Brazil is in a state of shock. Our 10 employees in Itajaí are safe but are homeless. I have never seen anything like this in 20 years of working in Brazil.

"With so much silting up, it will take at least three weeks to get dredging arranged. In the meantime we are diverting to Paranaguá.”

Bathometric tests carried out on 28th November show that the quantity of sand has reduced the depth of the channel from 10 metres down to just 7m.

RS

Bays On US Gulf Coast Vulnerable To Flooding

Bays On US Gulf Coast Vulnerable To Flooding

ScienceDaily (Oct. 14, 2008) — The most comprehensive geological review ever undertaken of the upper US Gulf Coast suggests that a combination of rising seas and dammed rivers could flood large swaths of wetlands this century in one or more bays from Alabama to Texas.

The findings, which will be presented at next week's annual meeting of the Geological Society of America in Houston, stem from bayfloor sediment samples, radiocarbon tests and seismic surveys compiled over 30 years.

"In terms of sea-level increases and river sediments flowing into the bays, we're rapidly approaching a time when bays will face conditions they last saw in the Holocene, from about 9,600 until 7,000 years ago," said lead researcher John Anderson, the W. Maurice Ewing Professor in Oceanography and professor of Earth science at Rice University. "That period was marked by dramatic and rapid flooding events in each of these bays -- events that saw some bays increase their size by as much as one-third over a period of 100 or 200 years."

Anderson is presenting the findings at next week's annual meeting of the Geological Society of America (GSA) at Houston's George R. Brown Convention Center. Anderson said the magnitude of flooding seen in bays during the Holocene -- the geological epoch that began 10,000 years ago -- would be noticeable and apparent, even on a year-to-year timescale.

"If you lived at the head of Galveston Bay, near Anahuac (Texas), you could see the bayhead move northward by as much as the length of a football field each year," Anderson said.

Anderson and colleagues, including Antonio Rodriguez of the University of North Carolina at Chappell Hill, compiled their research in a new 146-page monograph published by the GSA, "Response of Upper Gulf Coast Estuaries to Holocene Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise."

Their findings stemmed from an analysis of 30 years of data from hundreds of bayfloor sediment samples, radiocarbon tests and seismic surveys from Galveston, Matagorda and Corpus Christi bays in Texas, Mobile Bay in Alabama, Calcasieu Bay in Louisiana and Sabine Lake on the Texas-Louisiana border.

"There is no question that sea levels are rising in this region at a rate today that approaches what we saw in the Holocene," Anderson said.

He said the Holocene was also marked by alternating wet and dry periods upstream, particularly in central and western Texas. There was significantly less sediment flowing into the bays during the dry periods, and the researchers found that the most dramatic flooding events occurred when less sediment was flowing into the bays at the same time that sea levels were rising faster than four millimeters per year.

Anderson said that's a particularly troubling finding because several recent studies have confirmed that the rate of sea-level rise along the Gulf Coast has doubled in the past century to a current rate of about three millimeters per year. At the same time, the installation of dams upstream has slashed the amount of sediment flowing into every southern U.S. bay.

"Our research paints a pretty clear picture of what happened in these bays the last time they encountered the circumstances that we expect to see during the coming century," Anderson said. "Our hope is that policymakers will take note of the potential danger and take steps to help alleviate it."

For example, Anderson said it doesn't make environmental sense to keep a navigation channel open between the lower Trinity River and upper Galveston Bay because the channel diverts the sediment that is flowing into the bay, preventing it from replenishing the upper bay wetlands near Anahuac.

"Now that we're aware of the dangers, there are clearly things we can do to try and avoid them," he said.

WEATHER NOTE

NOAA: Ninth Warmest September for Global Temperatures

October 15, 2008

The combined global land and ocean surface average temperature for September 2008 tied with September 2001 as the ninth warmest since records began in 1880, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

Temperature Highlights

• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for September was 59.79 F — this is 0.79 degree F above the 20th century mean of 59.0 degrees F.

• Separately, the global land surface temperature was 54.50 F — this is 0.90 degree F above the 20th century mean of 53.6 degrees F, tying September 2004 as 11th warmest on record.

• The global ocean surface temperature of 61.86 F tied September 2001 as seventh warmest on record and was 0.76 degree F above the 20th century mean of 61.1 degrees F.

Global Highlights for September

• Arctic sea ice coverage during September was at its second lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Average ice extent during September was 1.80 million square miles, which is 34 percent below the 1979-2000 average and is part of an 11.7 percent decline in extent per decade over the past 30 years. The record lowest extent, set in 2007 was 1.65 million square miles.

• In early September, Hurricane Gustav impacted the Caribbean. Flooding associated with Hurricane Hanna claimed more than 500 lives in Haiti. In the middle of the month, Hurricane Ike claimed about 145 lives, many in Haiti. Near the end of September, Hurricane Kyle brought torrential rain and flooding to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola before heading north. It made landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada as a Category 1 hurricane.

• In the Pacific, Typhoon Sinlaku brought flooding to the Philippines before striking Taiwan and Japan. Parts of Taiwan received more than 40 inches of rain. Then, Typhoon Hagupit hit the Philippines and Taiwan before making landfall in southeastern China with winds of 121 mph. Other typhoons included: Super Typhoon Jangmi, which made landfall in Taiwan, with 130 mph winds. Jangmi was the most intense tropical cyclone and first Category 5 storm in any basin during 2008.

• Heavy rain across southern Chile spawned flooding and mudslides that claimed four lives and damaged more than 10,000 homes. Severe storms in the United Kingdom brought widespread flooding that forced the evacuation of thousands of residents and claimed six lives. Heavy downpours across northern Iraq and Iran destroyed several hydroelectric facilities and claimed 16 lives. And more than 200 fatalities were associated with flooding from monsoonal rains across Malaysia, Thailand, and India.

• With just 0.47 inch of rain, Melbourne, Australia had its driest September since records began in 1855, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The states of South Australia and Victoria had their eighth driest September on record.

• Fast-moving wild fires raged across parts of southern Africa during the first week in September. The fires claimed 89 lives in Mozambique, Swaziland, and South Africa, and killed hundreds of livestock.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

MARITIME NOTE

Round-the-world yachting adventure under way

Mon, Oct 13, 2008

Thunder and lightning marked Saturday's start of the prestigious Volvo round-the-world race, writes Lorna SigginsMarine Correspondent,in Alicante, Spain

GUNS AND thunder, fireworks and lightning marked the start of 10th Volvo Ocean Race in the southeast Spanish harbour of Alicante at the weekend.

Smoking out of the bay, the convoy of eight boats, with Irish sailors on three, was reefed for a fresh 25-knot northeasterly wind. It was enough to sweep the fleet down the Mediterranean, transforming Alicante's imposing Carthaginian citadel, Castillo de Santa Barbara, into a tiny speck in their wake.

Irish-Chinese entry Green Dragonappeared to be the only vessel with a full headsail as the gun was fired by King Juan Carlos.

An hour before, the vessel's two bowmen, Wexfordman Justin Slattery and British sailor Freddie Shanks, had been hoisted some 23m (75ft) up the mast to check a halyard block.

There was momentary silence and some anxious glances on board one of the Irish spectator boats as the Volvo 70 moved out of sheltered water to the starting line, marked by Spanish warship Principe de Asturias.

Inis Oirr musicians Micheál Ó hAlmhain and his two sons struck up a few chords, while Lets Do It Globalchairman Enda Ó Coineen tried to persuade Mayor of Galway Cllr Pádraig Conneely to dance the "Walls of Alicante".

There had been a strained waves, lumps in throats, as Green Dragonand its fellow Irish competitor, Team Delta Lloyd, left the pontoons several hours before.

Green Dragonskipper Ian Walker made light of the heavy moment, joking about his swimming practice with seven-year-old daughter Zoe and four-year-old Emilia.

Green Dragoncrew members Justin Slattery and Damian Foxall had spent their last half-hour on shore, strolling up to the Irish base holding their toddlers, Molly and Oisín. Manned by Tourism Ireland, the base was enlivened by the stilt-walking, U2 imitating antics of street theatre troupe Arcana.

No Government Minister had travelled out for the start, but former minister and sailor Bobby Molloy was present with Galway Harbour Board members, along with a Galway city council delegation, and several Dublin sailors, including yachtsman Michael O'Leary.

Most of the Volvo race entries sail under flags of convenience secured by multinational companies like Ericsson, Telefonica and Puma.

Thus, the Irish base, shared with the Dutch and Russians, had been one of few to provide some national hospitality over the previous days, thanks to the Good Food Ireland network.

For race start morning, however, the Irish base was invaded by an army of 90 Dutch Team Delta Lloydstaff - some of whom were a little surprised to learn that their €5 million sponsorship deal was really "Irish". What's more, Kilrush skipper Ger O'Rourke had adopted a village banking NGO, the Foundation for International Community Assistance, as his boat "charity".

Downstairs, supporters of Team Russia were collecting signatures to save the Orca whale after which their boat Kosatkais named. Even here, there is Irish infiltration. Team Russia's sail designer and trimmer is Kinsale yachtsman Jeremy Elliott.

Out at the bumpy start, spectators endured their own small endurance test as the boats completed a two-mile course, rounding a windward mark and leaving for the first "gate" between the Valencian coast and the island of Tabarca, 11 miles southeast.

By this stage, thunder and lightning had arrived, and a large yellow object had been flung from the Green Dragondeck.

A buoy? A bale? No, just Tom Roche of National Toll Roads, wearing a bright yellow drysuit.

Roche is one of a syndicate of Irish businessmen, including Denis O'Brien, who had promised €100,000 each to finance the Green Dragonbid.

Mr Roche's receipt comprised a 90-minute "race start" experience, followed by a high-speed ducking - there being no time to stop - and his retrieval from the ocean by Green Dragonshore manager Johnny Smullen.

Roche left behind 11 crew who will spend nine months and 37,000 nautical miles living in two metres of space, equivalent to life in a carbon fibre "phone box".

Heading for north Africa, the fleet hopes to picks up the trade wind, navigate the doldrums, and catch a glimpse of Capetown's Table Mountain, marking the first stopover in South Africa, in early November.

The Volvo Ocean Race berths in Galway from May 23rd next year. Further details on websites www.greendragonracing.com and www.volvooceanrace.org

RS