Improved Tsunami Early Warning With New Software System

Improved Tsunami Early Warning With New Software System

ScienceDaily (July 14, 2008) — After completing their simulation component in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS), the team for tsunami modelling of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association has presented the currently leading software system for tsunami events with the potential for catastrophe. It is now being integrated into the Decision Support System (DSS) of the German Aerospace Center in Oberpfaffenhofen. It is to resume its test mode in Indonesia in November.

"Within slightly more than two years, my team has developed, with the help of current software technology, the most modern and flexible simulation system for one of the most dreaded natural disasters of the world", explains Dr. Jörn Behrens, Head of the Tsunami Modelling Group of the Alfred Wegener Institute. "In contrast to other currently available Tsunami Early Warning Systems, it does not only use earthquake data for its ultra-fast situational analysis, but it combines various measurements to a robust, precise, and quick situation report."

Next to seismic data (earthquake parameters), also gauge and buoy data (wave heights), and GPS data (deformations of the earth's crust) can be incorporated into the calculations. All these data run together in the DSS, and the picture of the general situation supports decision-makers -- for example after a seaquake -- to evaluate more reliably and quicker than before, whether it poses a threat for residents of the bordering coastline in the form of rising water waves. Accordingly, warnings reach affected persons earlier than before, and it leaves more time to take disaster prevention measures.

Furthermore, simulation results from different institutes can seamlessly be integrated into the system. The team from the Alfred Wegener Institute will provide the warning system until November 2008 with already around 1500 high-resolution tsunami scenarios. The newly developed simulation system compares these scenarios with incoming real measurement data in a matter of seconds and deduces its forecast. The Indonesian partners work on the completion of the database at the same time.

Together with colleagues from the Indonesian "Institute of Technology Bandung", a connection to approximately 160.000 local tsunami scenarios they calculated is now being incorporated into the system developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven. They allow an essential expansion of the database."In regard to the interface to other programs, we adhere to open standards, which control the exchange of data in the world of computers. This way, external scenarios can seamlessly be integrated, and we can adapt the simulation model quickly to other marine areas of the world, for instance the Mediterranean Sea," says Behrens about the perspective for further early warning systems.

The Tsunami Modelling group consists of seven researchers and PhD students, among them one PhD student from Indonesia. It was established at the beginning of 2006, and has developed, next to the simulation system presented here, the simulation software TsunAWI, which is one of the bases for the computation of tsunami scenarios. The software has mastered its practical test: it computed the resulting wave heights precisely, when an earthquake of magnitude 7,9 near Bengkulu/Western Sumatra triggered a tsunami on September 13th 2007.

The aim of GITEWS is to minimize the consequences of natural disasters by means of an early warning system. Nevertheless, a natural phenomenon like the tsunami in the year 2004 cannot be prevented, and catastrophes of this kind will always cause casualties, regardless of a perfectly working alarm system. GITEWS is developed by several scientists and engineers from the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the Research Center in Geesthacht (GKSS), the German Marine Research Consortium (KDM), the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), and the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), as well as Indonesian and international partners. The project is financed by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

WEATHER NOTE

Twisters Hit Insurers With Worst Profit Dip Since '02 (Update3)

By Erik Holm

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Record tornado damages, the weakening economy and a drop in premiums may reduce insurers' earnings by 30 percent, the steepest second-quarter decline since 2002.

The industry's slump in profits is worse than all 24 groups in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index except for banks, financial- services firms and automobile companies, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said. Sixteen of 20 insurers in the S&P 500, led by American International Group Inc. and Allstate Corp., may report lower net income or a loss.

Losses from catastrophes, including the most tornadoes in the U.S. since at least 1950, were about $5.5 billion. At the same time, investment returns and opportunities to sell residential and corporate coverage declined as the economy slowed and home sales dropped.

``We're going to see amazingly bad numbers from the property insurers in the second quarter,'' said Meyer Shields, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. ``There are lots and lots of losses out there.''

The estimated decline in profit, the most since earnings per share fell about 45 percent in 2002, may be driven by tornado losses at insurers such as Allstate, lower investment returns for companies like AIG and falling rates at commercial insurers including Travelers Cos., said Paul Newsome, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners in Chicago.

``You rarely get all three of those factors at once,'' Newsome said.

Allstate Corp.

Second-quarter results typically include fewer catastrophe costs than the third and fourth quarters, when the Atlantic hurricane season peaks, he said. Researchers at Colorado State University and AccuWeather.com predict an above average number of hurricanes will form this year, driven in part by higher ocean temperatures.

Allstate, the largest publicly traded U.S. home and auto insurer, may report profit of $1.35 a share, down 23 percent from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The insurer, based in Northbrook, Illinois, will report results on July 23.

``I'm kind of crossing my fingers for Allstate,'' said Jim Ryan, an insurance analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. ``They haven't said anything to give us a hint about what their catastrophe losses might be.''

Costs Double

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., the insurer based in the Connecticut city of the same name, said yesterday in an e- mailed statement that it had $171 million of costs from natural disasters in the second quarter. That compares to $177 million in all of 2007.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. and Harleysville Group Inc. of Harleysville, Pennsylvania, said catastrophe costs more than doubled in the quarter as an estimated 1,164 tornadoes struck the U.S., hitting towns from Colorado to Minnesota to Texas and killing 49 people, including four boys at an Iowa scout camp in June.

In last year's second quarter, industrywide catastrophe costs were 60 percent less, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. in Jersey City, New Jersey.

As the U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter, foreclosures reached new peaks. Insurers, including Allstate, drop coverage when policyholders lose their houses and also have fewer opportunities to attract new clients. New home sales will fall 26 percent this year to 573,000, New York-based Fitch Ratings estimated on July 11.

``This seems to be the worst housing market I've ever seen,'' said George Ruebenson, the president of Allstate's home and auto unit, in a May 29 interview. ``Our ability to expand the homeowners business for Allstate is severely limited by this economy.''

Underestimated

Expenses also may rise as the economy sours, said Bill King, senior executive vice president at State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., the No. 1 home insurer.

``The slowing of the economy could put people in more desperate financial situations that might cause a difference in claim behavior,'' King said.

When the economy slows, policyholders are more likely to reduce the amount of coverage they buy, resort to fraud or submit claims for smaller-than-usual losses, he said. State Farm of Bloomington, Illinois, is owned by its policyholders and has no publicly traded debt.

Analysts' estimates may understate the industry's decline in net income because their predictions don't account for the falling value of securities tied to home loans. Insurers have written down more than $77 billion of holdings since last year, including mortgage-backed assets, equity investments tied to the housing market and contracts that protect fixed-income investors, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investment Losses

Insurers may lower the value of the assets further as they announce second-quarter results, said Shields of Stifel Nicolaus.

Investment losses helped push down stock prices, with every insurer in the S&P 500 Insurance Index declining this year except auto insurer Progressive Corp. and Seattle-based Safeco Corp., which agreed in April to be purchased by Liberty Mutual Group Inc. of Boston.

AIG, the world's largest insurer by assets, has written down more than $39 billion, higher than any other company in the insurance business, Bloomberg data show. The New York-based insurer has dropped about 57 percent this year.

Prices Fall

AIG and business insurers including Travelers of St. Paul, Minnesota, and Warren, New Jersey-based Chubb Corp. are charging less for commercial coverage in an attempt to win market share. Prices for such coverage fell 11 percent in the U.S. during June from a year earlier, according to MarketScout, the Dallas-based electronic insurance exchange. Prices have fallen for 40 consecutive months, MarketScout reported.

Rates will continue to fall and U.S. property and casualty insurers may pay more in claims and expenses than they collect in premiums by the time 2008 is over, Fitch Ratings said last month.

``You usually see large catastrophe losses in the third quarter when the hurricanes hit,'' said Morningstar's Ryan. ``I think it only gets worse from here.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Holm in New York at eholm2@bloomberg.net.

MARITIME NOTE

Cruise West already under Coast Guard watch
FLEET OPERATOR: Ships are being inspected and crew members questioned.

By JAMES HALPIN
jhalpin@adn.com




(07/08/08 00:12:43) The number of mishaps aboard Cruise West vessels so far this season has landed the company on a special program to review the ships' safety and maintenance procedures, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

Seattle-based Cruise West ships have so far suffered three mechanical failures and two groundings, including the most recent that took place Monday morning when the Spirit of Glacier Bay ran aground in Tarr Inlet near its namesake bay.

The Coast Guard began talking to the company about the trend after its ships suffered the second mechanical failure of the season, said Capt. Scott Robert, Coast Guard sector Juneau commander.

Mechanical problems are common on ships, and the Coast Guard in Alaska responds to hundreds of such calls each season, he said. But the number specifically on Cruise West ships this season prompted the extra attention, he said.

"After the third mechanical failure and the (first) grounding is when we started to take a very proactive approach on looking at the safety systems on board those vessels," Robert said. "These safety stand-downs are above and beyond what we, the Coast Guard, typically do with this industry."

The Coast Guard frequently holds surprise spot inspections and evaluates vessels at the beginning of the season, Robert said. The "safety stand-downs" are an added layer of oversight to promote safety and prevent serious accidents, he said.

As part of the plan, all of Cruise West's ships are being inspected by Coast Guard personnel, who are examining safety plans, equipment and maintenance policies, Robert said. The boardings also entail talking to crew members to improve their awareness of safety conditions, he said.

Cruise West officials are working in partnership, with its vice president "actively participating" in the stand-downs, Robert said. The boardings are scheduled in advance and take about two or three hours on average, he said. They are being held wherever the ships are -- in Alaska and elsewhere.

"This is a Coast Guard-wide issue," Robert said. "This is a combined, overarching look (at) Cruise West across the entire Coast Guard."

The agency plans to continue with the stand-downs until it is convinced Cruise West vessels are being operated and maintained safely, Robert said.

Jerrol Golden, spokeswoman for Cruise West, which operates nine small cruise ships, would not comment on the Coast Guard program, though she said safety is a top priority for the company. She stressed none of the incidents this season involved any injuries.

"Each incident is different, and there's definitely lessons learned immediately," she said. "There's no doubt the management system is under review by us, for sure."

She would not elaborate.

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New weather project could help track tornadoes more closely

New weather project could help track tornadoes more closely

By Ellis Goodwin, Daily Staff Writer

The 1996 movie "Twister" showed storm chasers travelling across Oklahoma and Kansas toting Dorothy, a mobile device that launches hundreds of flying sensors into a tornado.

In the film, Dorothy works by collecting data from the sensors, but in real life that would be nearly impossible, said Don Burgess, retired National Severe Storms Lab meteorologist.

Burgess said Dorothy is just a movie prop. It was based on a real piece of technology from the early '80s that did not fling hundreds of sensors into the air. Instead of Dorothy, it was called the Totable Tornado Observatory - TOTO for short.

TOTO weighs a few hundred pounds and holds basic atmospheric sensors that measure temperature, wind speed, pressure, dew point and other atmospheric characteristics, Burgess said. Burgess said the National Severe Storm Lab used TOTO for four or five years, but they did not have much success with it. It was big, bulky and difficult to put in the path of a tornado.

"There was just one TOTO; it was heavy and took a while to deploy," Burgess said. "We got close a number of times but had a problem getting a tornado to go right over it "

The technology in TOTO was high-tech for its time, but forecasters needed better technology to learn more about tornadoes, Burgess said.

In the mid '90s, a new design, VORTEX 1, incorporated new technologies developed after TOTO, NSSL Deputy Director Kevin Kelleher said.

Burgess said the VORTEX 1 machines that replaced TOTO are called Turtles. These devices are smaller and easier to deploy, and there are numerous units that can be placed in a grid.

Kelleher and Burgess described these devices as large, upside-down metal bowls that are loaded with atmospheric sensors. "You can set those out real quick so you don't have to worry as much about the safety factor," Burgess said.

Kelleher said forecasters learned a lot from VORTEX 1, but it there was still a lot to discover.

"VORTEX 1 was initially designed to find out what causes rotation," Kelleher said. "We wanted to forecast how [tornadoes] occur and how they dissipate, and what we learned is there is a lot we don't know."

New Technology

Large-scale tests like VORTEX 1 happen fairly rarely, NSSL Research Meteorologist Lou Wicker said. "VORTEX 1 made a significant difference," Wicker said. "But now we have a lot more technology to make real-time predictions, which can increase warning times."

The NSSL and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are working with the National Science Foundation to develop VORTEX 2, Kelleher said.

VORTEX 2 is a bigger and better version of the original VORTEX project, he said. The NSSL will prepare this spring for the test, which will be conducted in the springs of 2009 and 2010, Kelleher said.

"It is basically VORTEX 1 on steroids," Wicker said.

VORTEX 2 was developed to give researchers a better understanding of tornadoes and increase the warning time for those in the path of tornadoes, Kelleher said. VORTEX 2 should help forecasters complete the picture of how and why tornadoes occur, he said.

"The goal is to use the best observations we have now and all of the information we gathered in VORTEX 1, and take that to make models," Kelleher said. "The end game is to help forecasters predict what is going on more accurately."

In VORTEX 2, the NSSL and partners will track the storm from all sides at three different levels and will use most of today's available forecasting technology.

Tracking a storm

The first level of observation includes Turtles, Stick-nets – another type of sensor – and Mobile Mesonets, vehicles with sensors attached to their roofs. This level of observation records basic atmospheric functions.

The second level of observation is conducted by trucks called Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radars, known as SMART-Radars.

In 1997, OU, the NSSL and other partners developed these trucks, which are 34 feet long and have a 5 cm Doppler radar dish in the back, said Mike Biggerstaff, associate professor of meteorology and director of the SMART-Radar program. The 5 cm dish is less powerful than the larger stationary 10 cm Doppler radars, but its mobility allows it to move much closer to a storm and observe a clearer picture, he said.

The SMART-Radars are able to use radar signals to penetrate the storm, which bounce back and produce an image of what the storm looks like, Biggerstaff said.

"We can see the entire storm scale, the effect of the updrafts and the downdrafts on the development of circulation," he said.

On the third level of observation, behind the SMART-Radars, are the larger stationary 10 cm Doppler radar dishes. These radars provide a much farther-reaching radar sweep, Biggerstaff said. The more powerful beam provides a picture of the storm and areas surrounding it. Like the smaller radars, these take data and plug them into a computer algorithm, which creates a map of the storm, he said.

In VORTEX 2, the NSSL will also incorporate the new phased array radar, which was developed by the military. Phased array radar uses multiple beams and frequencies to reduce scanning time and can give forecasters minute by minute updates, Kelleher said.

Biggerstaff said there has never been a weather experiment as extensive as this one. And what makes VORTEX 2 so unique is the combination of all the technologies to create a data set that can be used to forecast future storms.

"I don't even think we have found all the ways that tornadoes form," Biggerstaff said. "We need to be able to observe all the scales of motion, and VORTEX 2 is designed to allow that to happen.”

WEATHER NOTES

The UK Chief Fire and Rescue Adviser’s review of the operational response by the Fire and Rescue Service to the widespread flooding in England during 2007 has been released. PDF at:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/fire/pdf/725360


Tornadoes in 2008

Here’s a look at where tornadoes have occurred in 2008 so far. Tornado season starts in the deep south and migrates north and northwest. Note the few number of tornadoes in the Plains States.

We have had 69 tornado fatalities in the U.S. (and it’s still winter!), well ahead of average. A total of 465 tornadoes have been reported. Usually we go until late May to get that many tornadoes.There have been 19 “killer tornadoes” in 9 states. 37 of the 69 fatalities were people inside mobile homes (which, unfortunately, tend to become more mobile in a tornado). Note the isolated tornadoes in California and Oregon (small spinups). There are two advantages to cool weather in late March and April…less severe weather and the blossoms don’t come out too soon. We should stay a little cooler than average through the rest of March.

Fortified Homes Capture Growing Interest In Wake Of Disasters

The insurance industry takes special note of the changes in weather patterns that are doling out spectacular new property losses. A spokesperson for the Institute for Business and Home Safety, (IBHS) a non-profit supported by the insurance industry, recently remarked:

"Ours is not to decide why it's happening, we just know disasters are more prevalent."

While "fortified" homes can refer to structures designed in the tradition of Joel Skousen as a buffer against uncertain times and to enhance survival in times of civil unrest, the term is now being used to describe structures that can resist, or survive, natural disasters.

Last week one such home was dedicated in Louisiana by Louisiana System Built Homes. IBHS sets out requirements for a home to be designated as "fortified," and the process includes inspections by those trained in inspecting for this purpose. It might surprise some to know that this home is largely built in a factory setting and transferred to the building site where it is assembled. This particular company uses SIPs as the building blocks.

IBHS certification promises to reduce insurance costs for the building owner. Requirements are related to where the structure is being built so they will vary from place to place but in Louisiana some of the requirements are:

• Able to withstand wind speeds 20 mph higher than those established by the American Society of Civil Engineers;
• Able to withstand high pressure at doors and windows;
• Able to withstand water penetration, high winds and hail in the roof area.

In Seattle, where another of these homes was recently certified, requirements look like this:

• Concrete construction must exceed seismic code standards by 20 percent;
• Roof to wall to foundation connections have to be able to stand 130 mph winds;
• Light metal roofs that resist shaking momentum but still also resist wind, hail and fire;
• Two moisture barriers below the roof covering;
• Windows and doors with a high degree of wind and water resistance.

By visiting this IBHS page you can view a number of videos with tips for fortifying buildings.

IBHS is also taking on the tough question that people always ask after a community sustains major losses from a natural disaster that was always expected to happen: "Why did they let them build there?"

You've all heard that one asked after yet another flood wipes out a portion of a community where the same thing happened in recent memory. As you might expect, answering the question requires getting into the nits and grits of some very formidable topics not the least of which have to do with property values and feelings related to "home." IBHS is advocating more comprehensive incorporation of natural hazards when communities consider land-use.

Images from the 03/15/08 tornadoes in Floyd and Polk County.

MARITIME NOTES

Independent Assessment by Coast Guard on Marine Safety program

In November 2007, VADM James C. Card, Ret. completed an independent assessment and analysis of the Coast Guard’s Marine Safety program. Below is taken from the introduction and gives a brief over view of the document:

Recently, Congress and the industry have criticized the Coast Guard because they believe Coast Guard Marine Safety performance and service have deteriorated. Many point to the Coast Guard’s increased role in Maritime Security and its move to the Department of Homeland Security as primary reasons for the deterioration. Coast Guard Marine Safety professionals also have concerns about the Coast Guard’s lack of focus on Marine Safety as an important mission.

The results gathered in this report show that concerns and suggestions fall into six major categories. Listed by priority they are: Strategy; Leadership; People; Policy; Customer Focus; and Organization.

Here is the link to the rest of the document Coast Guard Marine Safety Analysis


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Tornado startles Atlanta!

Tornado startles Atlanta

By PHIL GAST
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 03/15/08

Visitors, conventioneers visibly shaken

One of the most visible casualties of Friday's weather wrath was the Thomas P. Hinman Dental Meeting. Thousands of attendees were turned away Saturday morning from the Georgia World Congress Center.

Several recounted Friday night's trauma.

"The wind just kept getting faster and faster and louder and louder," said dentist Doug Clepper of Augusta. He and his wife took the fire escape downstairs from their 10th floor room in Omni Hotel.

"It was very surreal. People were dressed up for parties. Women were crying," Clepper said.

The storm was a huge blow to an estimated 24,000 exhibitors, speakers and professionals attending the dental show.

The GWCC roof had heavy damage. Exhibitors faced the task of trying to remove exhibits, some of them large, after the cancellation.

Outside the GWCC, a dozen tables and umbrellas were a tumble of plastic.

Throughout the CNN, Omni and GWCC complex, workers cleared glass and debris. Twenty-foot sections of metal roofing lie twisted in parking lots. Insulation was left hanging in trees outside CNN. Dozens of windows at the Omni were missing.

The CNN atrium was closed Saturday morning.

Outside CNN and the hotel were several parked cars, windows blown out by the force of the winds.

Terrell Brown of Centric Orthodontics of Marietta said the postponement of the Hinman meeting could mean thousands of dollars in lost revenue for companies that sell their products at the show.

"To lose a full day could cost you a third of your projected revenue," Brown said.

Timmi Hagan and Kori Singleton of Macon were attending the Hinman meeting and staying at The Glenn hotel on Marietta street.

They rushed to a closet when the tornado came through late Friday.

"We saw people running," Hagan, a dentist, said. They feared the window to their room would shatter, but it did not.

A building on Nassau Street adjacent to Techwood Drive crumbled onto nearby cars when Centennial Park, CNN Center and the Georgia Dome were damaged. Ben Gray/AJC

Also See More photos: Gallery 2, Latest story | More Weather photos

NWS PEACHTREE CITY, GEORGIA

The tornado that left behind extensive damage packed winds up to 130 mph and was rated an EF-2 storm, said Lance Rothfusz, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service office in Peachtree City. Story

During Alabama and Mississippi State SEC tournament basketball game a tornado may have hit the Georgia Dome.




MARITIME NOTES

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