Thursday, July 24, 2008

Large Cargo Ships Emit Double Amount of Soot Previously Estimated

Large Cargo Ships Emit Double Amount of Soot Previously Estimated

ScienceDaily (July 11, 2008)
Tugboats puff out more soot for the amount of fuel used than other commercial vessels, and large cargo ships emit more than twice as much soot as previously estimated, according to the first extensive study of commercial vessel soot emissions. Scientists from NOAA and the University of Colorado conducted the study and present their findings in the July 11 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The primary sources of soot, or small particles of black carbon, are fossil fuel combustion, wildfires, and burning vegetation for agricultural purposes. In the Arctic, an increase in soot may contribute to climate change if shipping routes expand, according to the study.

“Commercial shipping emissions have been one of the least studied areas of all combustion emissions,” said lead author Daniel Lack, of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and the NOAA-CU Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. “The two previous studies of soot emissions examined a total of three ships. We reviewed plumes from 96 different vessels.”

Lack and his colleagues observed emission plumes from commercial vessels in open ocean waters, channels, and ports along the southeast United States and Texas during the summer of 2006. From the NOAA research vessel, Ronald H. Brown, the team measured black carbon emitted by tankers, cargo and container ships, large fishing boats, tug boats, and ferries, many of them in the Houston Ship Channel.

Commercial shipping releases roughly 130,000 metric tons of soot per year, or 1.7 percent of the global total — much of it near highly populated coastlines, the authors estimate. In the coming years global shipping is expected to grow two to six percent annually.

Tugs emit nearly a gram of soot per kilogram of fuel burned — twice as much as any other vessel type, the authors found. The high levels point to their low-quality fuel — a thick, black tar left over from crude oil after the gasoline and kerosene have been removed. Engine age and maintenance also play a role. Tugboats have a disproportionate impact on air quality because they travel within ports, emitting potentially harmful particles near populous urban areas, according to the authors.

“Tugboats are a huge source of black carbon that may be under-reported or not reported at all in emissions inventories compiled by ports,” said Lack.

Oceangoing tankers and container ships emit half a gram per kilogram of fuel burned when at dock and slightly less when traveling, according to the study. That’s more than twice as much as previously estimated.

A 2007 study by American and German scientists linked particle pollution from shipping to tens of thousands of premature deaths each year, most of them along coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Soot makes up a quarter of that pollution, said Lack.

On a global scale, soot currently traps about 30 percent as much heat as does carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, according to the latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The small dark particles absorb sunlight, create haze, and affect how clouds form and make rain, further altering a region’s heat balance, according to the new NOAA study. If commercial shipping extends new routes through Arctic waters as they become navigable, soot emissions there could increase

WEATHER STORY

Hurricane Season: Disaster Readiness Tips from James Lee Witt


James Lee Witt, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency under President Clinton and now a disaster recovery consultant, talks about readiness during this hurricane season


Diann Daniel, CSO

August 01, 2006

CSO: What should security executives be doing for hurricane season?

James Lee Witt: The first thing is to make sure that you have the insurance coverage you need, whether it's for wind or whether it's flood insurance if your business is in a 100-year flood plain. Second, I would make sure that every employee understood that if we had to evacuate, where we would go, where we would reconvene our business so that we could continue to operate. Then, I'd make sure that I [could] send out alerts to all my employees—particularly if it was during a weekend or if employees were traveling—about what was going on and what they needed to do.

So many times we forget that every dollar we invest in prevention or preparedness could potentially save us $3 to $5 in future losses, and with the business interruption side of it, it could be even higher.

I would also make sure that all my customers and suppliers understood my plan—what I would need to do, how I would do it—and then I'd ask them to do likewise to make sure that the supply chain wasn't broken.

Why do you think that some businesses don't prepare?

The biggest problem I have seen is getting the buy-in and support from upper management. When I was director of FEMA, we did a survey of small businesses after disasters and found that 20 percent to 25 percent of those businesses affected by a catastrophic event never reopened.

During Hurricane Fran in North Carolina, GE had a plant there. They had retrofitted their plant for hurricane resistance, and after the hurricane was over, their plant was still OK, but there were no employees to come back to work for the next two days because they were taking care of their families and their homes. Anheuser-Busch in Pasadena, Calif., before the Northridge earthquake, spent $25 million to retrofit their plant for an earthquake, and they were open and operating two days after the earthquake, making canned water for victims in the community. They said that $25 million probably saved them $150 million.

Every business should help their employees develop a plan for their families, so everybody has a contact place to call to [let family] know that they're OK. If you have a catastrophic event and you need to go back in to check your business, you need to work with your local government's fire, emergency management, police, and you need to meet with the fire chief and police chief and say, "OK, here's our plan. Can we get credentials to allow us back in to check on our business?"

Who has developed a great disaster recovery plan?

I think Chicago probably has developed the best public-private partner concept, particularly ChicagoFirst working with the city and private sector. They have brought the private sector to the table, sat them down and just really developed a very good concept of how they both could help each other. What are you going to do if you need ice? What are you going to do if you need water? What are you going to do if you need a generator? Just all the kinds of things that might help you get through the first five days. That's all part of that planning process.

What would you recommend businesses think about?

I would look at what resources and capabilities I have within the company, and then I would look at what resources I would need [from] outside of the company. Then, if I needed to, I would look at having pre-event contracts set up to provide those resources and capabilities. Then I would work with the state or local government and say, "Here's my plan, here are the resources that we have that we would have available to help if we survive an event, but here's the type of resources that we may need."



Published July 13, 2008

With the 25th anniversary of Hurricane Alicia approaching, many residents are discussing whether the Texas Coast is ready for the next big storm. John Simsen, emergency management coordinator for Galveston County, talked about the county’s plans.

Q: How would you rate our preparedness for hurricane season?

A: From a government standpoint, I would give us a B+. We have detailed local and regional plans for coordinating evacuations, identifying and assisting those with special needs, locating transportation resources and accommodating pets. We have excellent emergency facilities that can weather a severe storm, and we have public and private partners ready to launch a massive recovery effort if needed. But there is always more work to be done. You can never be completely prepared for a significant hurricane.

Q: Where do we get our highest grades?

A: Cooperation between the cities and counties in our region has never been better, in part because of the Hurricane Rita “wake-up call” and the strong influence of our local elected leaders. Galveston County’s conference call process for making evacuation and re-entry decisions has been embraced by the region, ensuring that our need to evacuate ahead of the Houston population is properly communicated.

We have countywide contracts in place for buses to help transport special needs residents to safety and agreements with UTMB and the city of Austin to help care for them. And for the first time in county history, every community in Galveston County has a contract in place to assist with debris cleanup after a major storm — a critical component of the recovery process.

Q: How about the lowest?

A: Public perceptions about government’s ability to coordinate a smooth evacuation of the Houston region remain low, despite significant improvements since Hurricane Rita.

The state, through partnerships with public agencies and private industry, is prepared to provide adequate fuel, wrecker services, welcome centers and shelters to assist the evacuating population along the primary evacuation routes.

A refined “contra-flow” or reverse-flow traffic plan is set for implementation 36 hours prior to landfall to help reduce traffic bottlenecks, and local and regional efforts to coordinate a phased evacuation of those areas susceptible to storm surge are now in place.

Yet citizens tell us at community meetings that they are worried about getting stuck in traffic or running out of fuel. Many say they just won’t leave if asked to do so. This is a dangerous position to take in a county that absolutely must evacuate when a Category 4-5 storm threatens. I lose sleep worrying about these citizens and hope their families and friends will convince them to leave when the time comes.

Q: Are we set to help out the most vulnerable populations — those that can’t get out of danger without help?

A: Galveston County has a robust plan to move upward of 6,000 special-needs evacuees from two departure points – the Island Community Center at 4700 Broadway and the Doyle Center at 2010 Fifth Ave. N. in Texas City. Rising gas prices may force more citizens to use this evacuation option, and emergency managers are preparing for this possibility by factoring in additional buses and shelter space.

Each city in the county maintains its own special-needs registry and takes responsibility for either transporting these citizens to the embarkation points or arranging other assistance such as an ambulance. Though we try to stay in touch with the citizens on our special-needs lists, some are hard to reach because they are transient and distrustful of government. We urge them or their families to call 211 or their local office of emergency management to register for assistance. They need to register today, not when a hurricane threatens.

Q: The 25th anniversary of Alicia is getting some attention. How has the picture changed since then? What should we be worried about now?

A: Emergency managers have spent countless hours preparing for the next massive, Rita-like hurricane. But the odds are just as good that the next hurricane to impact Galveston County will form on our doorstep, like Hurricane Alicia, and leave us with little time to react.

Hurricane Humberto formed in the Gulf just south of Galveston and reached Category 1 strength in 19 hours last September, making landfall on High Island and causing millions of dollars worth of damage. Had it formed a little farther south and west in the Gulf, it could have made landfall directly over Galveston Island as a Category 2 storm, with substantially more devastation.

The explosive population growth in Galveston County since 1983 makes it imperative that all citizens have both a well-stocked disaster supply kit and a family evacuation plan. We can’t pour enough concrete to make an evacuation through the nation’s third largest city trouble-free. Delays are inevitable, and so are false alarms. Take steps to minimize the impacts on your family by staying prepared and informed.

Q: If there were one thing you could convince the average resident of the county of, what would that be?

A: Galveston County is a beautiful place to live, work and raise a family. But with the good comes the bad — the ever-present threat of severe weather events. If you choose to live here, you must accept personal responsibility for the safety of your family, relatives and pets. At some point, government will not be able to assist, and your attention to details today will ensure your personal safety down the road.

MARITIME NOTE

USCG – AMVER anniversary

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that July 18 marked the 50th anniversary of Automated Mutual Vessel Rescue System (AMVER). As the only worldwide voluntary ship reporting system for safety of life and property at sea, AMVER was involved in 181 calls for assistance in 2007 and contributed to saving 450 lives. (7/18/08).

Chesapeake Bay – “smart buoy” deployed

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a news release stating that a “smart buoy” has been deployed at Stingray Point at the mouth of the Rappahannock River is Chesapeake Bay. The buoy collects weather, oceanographic, and water-quality observations and transmits this data wirelessly in near-real time. The measurements can be accessed at Buoy-Bay. (7/18/08).

Cleveland firefighter still missing in Lake Erie

By CORY FROLIK
frolik@sanduskyregister.com

Monday July 21 2008, 10:46pm

SANDUSKY

A search covering 12-square nautical miles of Lake Erie that used divers, sonar and a helicopter was unable to locate the body of a Cleveland firefighter who went overboard Saturday evening.

The search for Kenneth Alderman, a 44-year-old Cleveland firefighter, was suspended at 3 p.m. Sunday. The hunt will not resume until further evidence of his location is discovered, authorities said.

Alderman went missing after he fell in the lake about two miles east of the Sandusky break wall shortly before 8 p.m. Saturday, said U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer William Mitchell. He was aboard a 30-foot recreational boat with three other people, including his fiancĂ©e and the boat’s owner. He was not wearing a safety vest.

The circumstances that led to the firefighter ending up in the water still are not clear. Authorities said only that witnesses saw Alderman struggle in the water and then go under.

“The people on the boat tried to save him after he fell in the water ... but he was in a state of panic when he fell in and tried to fight off the people who tried to rescue him,” Mitchell said. “They saw him actually go underwater — fall beneath the surface of the water.”

Jim Kennedy, fleet manager with Lake Erie Towing, was the first on scene Saturday night and sent a distress signal to the Coast Guard. After releasing green dye into the water to mark the position of the boat, which he described as a white express cruiser with blue trim, Kennedy started searching for Alderman.

His efforts proved unsuccessful, and he found no sign of the man.

Many hours later, the efforts of many agencies were as fruitless. A boat from the Huron Fire Department used a side-scanner to survey Lake Erie’s murky depths. The Cleveland Fire Department sent divers searching for Alderman, and cadaver dogs were used to locate his scent. The Coast Guard continued its search through the late afternoon using two boats and a helicopter.

The search was finally called off after more than 18 hours.

All four people on deck of the recreational vessel were not wearing life vests, Mitchell said. Things may have ended differently if they had, he added.

“This is a typically tragic Great Lakes’ case, where you have people going out to enjoy the weather and have a good time, but because they don’t take precautions — a lifejacket, which would have changed the outcome of the night — it ended in death,” Mitchell said.

Larry Gray, spokesman with the Cleveland Fire Department, said Alderman has 21 years of experience as a firefighter, of which the last 17 he’s spent in the same station.

A RARE SUN SETS BEHIND CHICAGO

PHOTO BY TEAM ROBIN STORM


RS



Wednesday, July 23, 2008

NOAA goes diving for U-boats in North Carolina

NOAA goes diving for U-boats in North Carolina
Politicizing Marine Safety – Never a Good Idea

As the Massachusetts Legislature tightens its death grip around the port of Boston, a key 'niche' intermodal hub in the northeast teeters on the brink of obsolescence.

I owe everyone an apology this week. Last week, as a sign-off from my weekly column, I trumpeted, "Massachusetts legislators vote to move Boston Harbor to Long Island Sound. Stay tuned!" Now, everyone knows that you can't vote to physically move a port from one place to another. That's just silly. The port of Boston will always reside right where it is at, just as it has for the past 400 years. Twenty years from now, however, and if the current situation on Beacon Hill does not radically change, Boston's waterfront will consist primarily of luxury, pier side condominiums, trendy shops and maybe a pleasure boat marina or two. It doesn't have to be this way.

As one of the more unusual ports in the country, and not coincidentally one of its safest, Boston is home to a myriad of cargo interests, from LNG to automobiles to gasoline and a raft of other miscellaneous goods. A popular and profitable cruise ship trade also makes port calls here. The port will never be a major cargo hub, but it is a key cog in the local MASSPORT machine and is, in no small part, important to local economy. The past three years have seen much turmoil in the harbor, most of it based around local disputes centering on who should and should not dock vessels, under what authority that might occur and at what price and under what conditions all of that might happen. But, there's more than one issue on table.

At issue (and most visible) is the question of whether the Commonwealth should license local so-called "docking masters," especially in the roiled wake of the COSCO BUSAN incident. The local contractors – most of whom work for one local tug boat company – dock and undock large, deep draft traffic. None of them are certificated by the state to do so. Boston marine pilots, in contrast, all licensed by the state, guide traffic in and out Boston. They are also qualified to dock and undock these vessels, and often do so. To my knowledge, there hasn't been a single accident of note associated with the pilots over the course of the last ten years. They charge the state-mandated fee of $350 per movement to dock or undock vessels; a private docking master bill can triple that amount.

Few in the Boston maritime community would dispute that the local, so-called docking masters should be licensed in Massachusetts. That they are allowed to direct ships without these certifications arguably leaves the Commonwealth open to significant liability on the very waters that they are supposed to be controlling commerce. The problem stems from the terms under which docking masters could eventually be licensed. These individuals want to remain virtually independent of the existing regulatory environment, charge fees to shippers unencumbered by state oversight and operate under conditions that would exclude them from the same degree of liability that local harbor pilots toil under. With few exceptions, the balance of the waterfront community opposes these terms.

The effort to certify the docking masters has failed miserably in the past, and when bill(s) tailored to meet the criteria of the docking masters have been turned aside in the Legislature, attempts to attach similar language to other, unrelated bills have become the weapon of choice. At the same time, the local harbor pilots are desperately trying to enact the first fee increase in ten years for local pilotage. That effort remains stymied and the bill held hostage in the State House. Today, special interests have attached a rider to that bill which would likely signal the end of competitive vetting of future pilot candidates. The implications for the port of Boston, down the road, are ominous.

The proposed rider to Pilot's rate bill (S 515) reads as follows: "…the pilot commission shall adopt regulations providing for preference to veterans as defined in clause Forty-third of section 7 of chapter 4 of the General Laws and those who were honorably discharged from or currently serving in the Armed Forces of the United States, including the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Officer (sic) Corps. If an active duty member or veteran applicant has a valid United States Coast Guard-issued Unlimited (sic) Master's License or First Class Federal Pilotage endorsement for any part of Boston Harbor, he shall be eligible for preference for appointment as a state-commissioned pilot apprentice." In general terms, the provisions of this language are tailored specifically for one or two individuals who probably could not otherwise make the bar. If the language is enacted, any individual with veteran status with twelve trips in and out of the harbor will now move to the front of queue, regardless of his or her experience in matters of shiphandling or other related skillsets.

The proposed amendment has put the local pilot association in an unenviable position. Like their Coast Guard brethren who were, earlier this year, reluctantly forced to oppose their own authorization bill due to several flawed amendments, the Boston Marine Pilots may now be forced to abandon a pay raise or allow the beginning of the degradation of local pilot skills. The proposed "preference" language, wrapped in red, white and blue, will not serve the common good in terms of safety, transparency of the pilot selection process, or the needs of a port that needs to continue to show itself as a safe and attractive place to deliver and load cargo. At a time when the national scrutiny of pilot credentials and certifications is ramping up significantly, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is preparing to dumb down the curriculum.

The future of Boston Harbor as a viable commercial cargo hub can be summed up neatly by three matters now before the state legislature; namely, (a.) the licensing of docking masters, (b.) a rate hike for the local marine pilots, and (c.) an effort to politicize the selection of future marine pilots. And, the rate bill isn't going anywhere unless everyone else gets what they want. In the meantime, the ability of local pilots to adequately fund the infrastructure necessary to a safe and efficient pilotage system has been seriously crippled.

No doubt, the laughter in Portland, ME, Providence, RI and other nearby ports carries long and loud across the water. And, if anyone doubts the errant course that Massachusetts find itself headed on, they need to look no farther than Long Island Sound, where 25 years of benign regulatory neglect has left the pilot system in organizational shambles, with no viable apprentice candidates to take the place of the remaining pilots when the bulk of them reach retirement age in the not-too-distant future.

Within the past two weeks, a bill designed to eliminate the Harbor Maintenance Tax was introduced in Washington. The bipartisan legislation, introduced in the U.S. Senate, would exempt coastwise shipping of containerized cargo from the Harbor Maintenance Tax (HMT). Stated simply, the law, if enacted, would almost instantly revitalize the domestic, so-called "Shortsea Shipping" trades. The effort is right at the top of the U.S. Maritime Administration's wish list and Transportation Secretary and highway guru Mary Peters has to be absolutely delighted at the fact that the bill is now in play.

For Massachusetts, the exemption could remove literally tens of thousands of trucks from its highways that emanate up and down the I-95 & 128 corridor daily. The savings in air emissions, related health problems, highway wear and tear and a thousand other things would be substantial. For the port of Boston, a relatively shallow draft niche port, the change would be even more significant. Suddenly, commerce on coastwise, handy-sized vessels would explode and the port would be a logical place to bring that traffic. If only someone on Beacon Hill was listening…

I thought about writing a fiction piece this week depicting the events that would precede the death of a port. In the end, I knew that the real story in Boston, if written by Hollywood playwrights, wouldn't get much play in theatres, because it is just so unbelievable. In Arthur Miller's masterpiece, "Death of a Salesman", the main character, Willy Loman, is (arguably) used to illustrate how compromised ideals and missed opportunities could eventually yield tragic results. It is not a stretch to say that the same thing is underway in the Bay State. It IS silly to think that a port can be "voted" from one place to another. But, that won't stop Massachusetts legislators, spurred on by well-funded special interests, from trying. – MarEx

Joseph Keefe is the Managing Editor of THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE. A native of the Bay State, Keefe has followed and reported on the situation in Boston and Long Island Sound extensively over the past three years. He can be reached with comments on this or any other article in this e-newsletter at jkeefe@maritime-executive.com.

Rules of the Road quiz. Whats wrong with this picture? Just drop me a note.....Winner gets a surprise.....





RS

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

NOAA Predicts Largest Gulf Of Mexico 'Dead Zone' On Record

NOAA Predicts Largest Gulf Of Mexico 'Dead Zone' On Record

ScienceDaily (July 16, 2008) NOAA-supported scientists from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium and Louisiana State University are forecasting that the "dead zone" off the coast of Louisiana and Texas in the Gulf of Mexico this summer could be the largest on record.

The researchers are predicting the area could measure a record 8,800 square miles, or roughly the size of New Jersey. In 2007, the dead zone was 7,903 square miles. The largest dead zone on record was in 2002, when it measured 8,481 square miles. The official measurement of this year's dead zone is slated to be released in late July. Researchers began taking regular measurements of the dead zone in 1985.

"The prediction of a large dead zone this summer is due to a combination of large influx of nitrogen and exceptionally high flows from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers," said LSU scientist R. Eugene Turner.

The dead zone is an area in the Gulf of Mexico where seasonal oxygen levels drop too low to support most life in bottom and near-bottom waters. This low oxygen, or hypoxic, area is primarily caused by high nutrient levels, which stimulates an overgrowth of algae that sinks and decomposes. The decomposition process in turn depletes dissolved oxygen in the water. The dead zone is of particular concern because it threatens valuable commercial and recreational Gulf fisheries.

Research indicates that the nearly tripling of nitrogen levels into the Gulf over the past 50 years from human activities has led to a dramatic increase in the size of the dead zone. Various models are useful in evaluating the influence of nitrogen loads and other factors on the size of the dead zone. The LSU model has a strong track record of accurately predicting the dead zone's size.

"The strong link between nutrients and the dead zone indicates that excess nutrients from the Mississippi River watershed during the spring are the primary human-influenced factor behind the expansion of the dead zone," said Rob Magnien, director of the NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research. "This analysis will greatly inform the development of federal, state and local efforts to reduce the dead zone's size."

The forecast is based on a mathematical model developed by LSU through NOAA's long-term research investment by CSCOR's Gulf of Mexico Ecosystems and Hypoxia Assessment. The model incorporates U.S. Geological Survey data on the amount of nitrogen reaching the Gulf of Mexico in May. NOAA has been funding investigations into the dead zone since 1990.

WEATHER NOTE

Tornado sirens questioned on Iron Range

VIRGINIA, Minn. (AP) - Officials in the Virginia area are discussing what should be done about malfunctioning tornado sirens.

During tornado alerts Monday evening, some of Virginia's warning sirens didn't go off. While funnel clouds were reported, no tornadoes reportedly touched down.

Virginia Mayor Steve Peterson says it's a wake-up call for the city. He says city officials and residents are fortunate nothing happened.

Some of Virginia's sirens are more than 40 years old.

Peterson says Virginia will likely have to replace the sirens, because he says it doesn't make much sense to repair such old equipment.

In nearby Eveleth, the sirens did sound. But sirens in Gilbert were silent because of a mixup, and Mountain Iron doesn't have an alarm system

Officials agree that Wisconsin’s disaster laws need an overhaul.

A new panel of legislators, emergency management officials and relief workers will start meeting July 30 to suggest ways to streamline those laws.

It would have been almost impossible to hold a session a month ago when floods closed many roads in southern Wisconsin.

It’s been 20 years since the state’s emergency laws have gotten a comprehensive review.

Since then, lots of things have been added piecemeal.

For one thing, the law does not define “homeland security.”

Homelands used to be where our ancestors were from, until President Bush made it part of the post-Sept. 11 lexicon and state and local governments created their own homeland security agencies that seem to include everything under the sun.

Sen. Bob Jauch, D-Poplar, chairs the new study panel. He wants to examine the state’s response to recent disasters, including the floods, and the February snowstorm in which thousands of motorists were left stranded for up to 12 hours on Interstate 90 south of Madison.

Jauch also wants to find out if local agencies have the resources they need to recover from emergencies.

MARITIME NOTE

Unsecured cargo may have led to vessel sinking
MANILA, Philippines - Loose cargo on board the ill-fated M/V Princess of the Stars may have led to its sinking on June 21 while it was being lashed by typhoon Frank (international codename: Fensheng).

Philip Vasquez, a resident of Cebu and one of 28 people aboard a life raft that was swept to the coastal town of Mulanay in Quezon province, told the Board of Marine Inquiry (BMI) Friday that he was awakened at about 3 a.m. when waves as tall as the vessel continuously hit the seven-storey ferry.

The sun suddenly came out and the seas became calm at about 8 a.m. and he was sure that they were at the center of the typhoon at that time, said Mr. Vasquez, a graduate of maritime education at the University of Cebu. Thirty minutes later, the weather became worse and the boat eventually sank, taking with it some 500 lives.

When the interisland ferry was being battered by giant waves before noon, he said he heard that the cargo move as the vessel swayed. He said the moving cargo caused the tilting of the ship and led to its sudden capsizing.

His statement was supported by an earlier one made by a maritime expert who said the reason the doomed ferry lost its stability was because of the weight of "unsecured" cargo.

Nelson P. Ramirez, president and chairman of the United Filipino Seafarers, had said some of the vessels of Sulpicio Lines lack the proper equipment to ensure the safety of cargo — an observation made when he joined a team from the Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA) conducting an inspection to check the ships’ seaworthiness. MARINA is also investigating the possible need to cancel the certificate of public convenience issued to Sulpicio Lines.

Meanwhile, the broker contracted by Del Monte Philippines, Inc. to handle the documents regarding the toxic chemical shipment of Del Monte Philippines, Inc. (DMPI) appeared at the BMI hearing.

Dante Macaisa, CEVA Philippines country manager, told the board that Sulpicio Lines had prior knowledge of the contents of the 40-foot container van. He said the broker had presented several documents indicating that the shipment contained dangerous materials to a representative of the shipping firm.

After giving the local pro-forma bill of lading, Mr. Macaisa said the official stated that other documents were "not necessary" and gave them back to the broker.

Sulpicio Lines spokesperson Ma. Victoria Lim-Florido said there were no acknowledgment receipts executed by the broker.

"If there is an acknowledgment receipt, then that is proof that Sulpicio received [the documents from the broker]. But our position is [that] we never received the ocean bill of lading," she told reporters.

Mr. Macaisa confirmed they did not issue an acknowledgment receipt. In other transactions, Ms. Lim said, they execute acknowledgment receipts, especially as regards dangerous cargo. — Bernard U. Allauigan, BusinessWorld

RS


Monday, July 21, 2008

Improved Tsunami Early Warning With New Software System

Improved Tsunami Early Warning With New Software System

ScienceDaily (July 14, 2008)
After completing their simulation component in the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS), the team for tsunami modelling of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association has presented the currently leading software system for tsunami events with the potential for catastrophe. It is now being integrated into the Decision Support System (DSS) of the German Aerospace Center in Oberpfaffenhofen. It is to resume its test mode in Indonesia in November.

"Within slightly more than two years, my team has developed, with the help of current software technology, the most modern and flexible simulation system for one of the most dreaded natural disasters of the world", explains Dr. Jörn Behrens, Head of the Tsunami Modelling Group of the Alfred Wegener Institute. "In contrast to other currently available Tsunami Early Warning Systems, it does not only use earthquake data for its ultra-fast situational analysis, but it combines various measurements to a robust, precise, and quick situation report."

Next to seismic data (earthquake parameters), also gauge and buoy data (wave heights), and GPS data (deformations of the earth's crust) can be incorporated into the calculations. All these data run together in the DSS, and the picture of the general situation supports decision-makers -- for example after a seaquake -- to evaluate more reliably and quicker than before, whether it poses a threat for residents of the bordering coastline in the form of rising water waves. Accordingly, warnings reach affected persons earlier than before, and it leaves more time to take disaster prevention measures.

Furthermore, simulation results from different institutes can seamlessly be integrated into the system. The team from the Alfred Wegener Institute will provide the warning system until November 2008 with already around 1500 high-resolution tsunami scenarios. The newly developed simulation system compares these scenarios with incoming real measurement data in a matter of seconds and deduces its forecast. The Indonesian partners work on the completion of the database at the same time.

Together with colleagues from the Indonesian "Institute of Technology Bandung", a connection to approximately 160.000 local tsunami scenarios they calculated is now being incorporated into the system developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven. They allow an essential expansion of the database."In regard to the interface to other programs, we adhere to open standards, which control the exchange of data in the world of computers. This way, external scenarios can seamlessly be integrated, and we can adapt the simulation model quickly to other marine areas of the world, for instance the Mediterranean Sea," says Behrens about the perspective for further early warning systems.

The Tsunami Modelling group consists of seven researchers and PhD students, among them one PhD student from Indonesia. It was established at the beginning of 2006, and has developed, next to the simulation system presented here, the simulation software TsunAWI, which is one of the bases for the computation of tsunami scenarios. The software has mastered its practical test: it computed the resulting wave heights precisely, when an earthquake of magnitude 7,9 near Bengkulu/Western Sumatra triggered a tsunami on September 13th 2007.

The aim of GITEWS is to minimize the consequences of natural disasters by means of an early warning system. Nevertheless, a natural phenomenon like the tsunami in the year 2004 cannot be prevented, and catastrophes of this kind will always cause casualties, regardless of a perfectly working alarm system. GITEWS is developed by several scientists and engineers from the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association (AWI), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the Research Center in Geesthacht (GKSS), the German Marine Research Consortium (KDM), the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Gesellschaft fĂĽr Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), and the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), as well as Indonesian and international partners. The project is financed by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

WEATHER NOTE

Twisters Hit Insurers With Worst Profit Dip Since '02 (Update3)

By Erik Holm

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Record tornado damages, the weakening economy and a drop in premiums may reduce insurers' earnings by 30 percent, the steepest second-quarter decline since 2002.

The industry's slump in profits is worse than all 24 groups in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index except for banks, financial- services firms and automobile companies, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said. Sixteen of 20 insurers in the S&P 500, led by American International Group Inc. and Allstate Corp., may report lower net income or a loss.

Losses from catastrophes, including the most tornadoes in the U.S. since at least 1950, were about $5.5 billion. At the same time, investment returns and opportunities to sell residential and corporate coverage declined as the economy slowed and home sales dropped.

``We're going to see amazingly bad numbers from the property insurers in the second quarter,'' said Meyer Shields, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. ``There are lots and lots of losses out there.''

The estimated decline in profit, the most since earnings per share fell about 45 percent in 2002, may be driven by tornado losses at insurers such as Allstate, lower investment returns for companies like AIG and falling rates at commercial insurers including Travelers Cos., said Paul Newsome, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners in Chicago.

``You rarely get all three of those factors at once,'' Newsome said.

Allstate Corp.

Second-quarter results typically include fewer catastrophe costs than the third and fourth quarters, when the Atlantic hurricane season peaks, he said. Researchers at Colorado State University and AccuWeather.com predict an above average number of hurricanes will form this year, driven in part by higher ocean temperatures.

Allstate, the largest publicly traded U.S. home and auto insurer, may report profit of $1.35 a share, down 23 percent from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The insurer, based in Northbrook, Illinois, will report results on July 23.

``I'm kind of crossing my fingers for Allstate,'' said Jim Ryan, an insurance analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. ``They haven't said anything to give us a hint about what their catastrophe losses might be.''

Costs Double

Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., the insurer based in the Connecticut city of the same name, said yesterday in an e- mailed statement that it had $171 million of costs from natural disasters in the second quarter. That compares to $177 million in all of 2007.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. and Harleysville Group Inc. of Harleysville, Pennsylvania, said catastrophe costs more than doubled in the quarter as an estimated 1,164 tornadoes struck the U.S., hitting towns from Colorado to Minnesota to Texas and killing 49 people, including four boys at an Iowa scout camp in June.

In last year's second quarter, industrywide catastrophe costs were 60 percent less, according to Insurance Services Office Inc. in Jersey City, New Jersey.

As the U.S. economy slowed in the second quarter, foreclosures reached new peaks. Insurers, including Allstate, drop coverage when policyholders lose their houses and also have fewer opportunities to attract new clients. New home sales will fall 26 percent this year to 573,000, New York-based Fitch Ratings estimated on July 11.

``This seems to be the worst housing market I've ever seen,'' said George Ruebenson, the president of Allstate's home and auto unit, in a May 29 interview. ``Our ability to expand the homeowners business for Allstate is severely limited by this economy.''

Underestimated

Expenses also may rise as the economy sours, said Bill King, senior executive vice president at State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., the No. 1 home insurer.

``The slowing of the economy could put people in more desperate financial situations that might cause a difference in claim behavior,'' King said.

When the economy slows, policyholders are more likely to reduce the amount of coverage they buy, resort to fraud or submit claims for smaller-than-usual losses, he said. State Farm of Bloomington, Illinois, is owned by its policyholders and has no publicly traded debt.

Analysts' estimates may understate the industry's decline in net income because their predictions don't account for the falling value of securities tied to home loans. Insurers have written down more than $77 billion of holdings since last year, including mortgage-backed assets, equity investments tied to the housing market and contracts that protect fixed-income investors, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investment Losses

Insurers may lower the value of the assets further as they announce second-quarter results, said Shields of Stifel Nicolaus.

Investment losses helped push down stock prices, with every insurer in the S&P 500 Insurance Index declining this year except auto insurer Progressive Corp. and Seattle-based Safeco Corp., which agreed in April to be purchased by Liberty Mutual Group Inc. of Boston.

AIG, the world's largest insurer by assets, has written down more than $39 billion, higher than any other company in the insurance business, Bloomberg data show. The New York-based insurer has dropped about 57 percent this year.

Prices Fall

AIG and business insurers including Travelers of St. Paul, Minnesota, and Warren, New Jersey-based Chubb Corp. are charging less for commercial coverage in an attempt to win market share. Prices for such coverage fell 11 percent in the U.S. during June from a year earlier, according to MarketScout, the Dallas-based electronic insurance exchange. Prices have fallen for 40 consecutive months, MarketScout reported.

Rates will continue to fall and U.S. property and casualty insurers may pay more in claims and expenses than they collect in premiums by the time 2008 is over, Fitch Ratings said last month.

``You usually see large catastrophe losses in the third quarter when the hurricanes hit,'' said Morningstar's Ryan. ``I think it only gets worse from here.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Holm in New York at eholm2@bloomberg.net.

MARITIME NOTE

Cruise West already under Coast Guard watch
FLEET OPERATOR: Ships are being inspected and crew members questioned.

By JAMES HALPIN
jhalpin@adn.com

The Spirit of Glacier Bay's grounding July 7, 2008, is the latest in a series of problems on ships owned by Cruise West in Alaska.


(07/08/08 00:12:43)
The number of mishaps aboard Cruise West vessels so far this season has landed the company on a special program to review the ships' safety and maintenance procedures, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

Seattle-based Cruise West ships have so far suffered three mechanical failures and two groundings, including the most recent that took place Monday morning when the Spirit of Glacier Bay ran aground in Tarr Inlet near its namesake bay.

The Coast Guard began talking to the company about the trend after its ships suffered the second mechanical failure of the season, said Capt. Scott Robert, Coast Guard sector Juneau commander.

Mechanical problems are common on ships, and the Coast Guard in Alaska responds to hundreds of such calls each season, he said. But the number specifically on Cruise West ships this season prompted the extra attention, he said.

"After the third mechanical failure and the (first) grounding is when we started to take a very proactive approach on looking at the safety systems on board those vessels," Robert said. "These safety stand-downs are above and beyond what we, the Coast Guard, typically do with this industry."

The Coast Guard frequently holds surprise spot inspections and evaluates vessels at the beginning of the season, Robert said. The "safety stand-downs" are an added layer of oversight to promote safety and prevent serious accidents, he said.

As part of the plan, all of Cruise West's ships are being inspected by Coast Guard personnel, who are examining safety plans, equipment and maintenance policies, Robert said. The boardings also entail talking to crew members to improve their awareness of safety conditions, he said.

Cruise West officials are working in partnership, with its vice president "actively participating" in the stand-downs, Robert said. The boardings are scheduled in advance and take about two or three hours on average, he said. They are being held wherever the ships are -- in Alaska and elsewhere.

"This is a Coast Guard-wide issue," Robert said. "This is a combined, overarching look (at) Cruise West across the entire Coast Guard."

The agency plans to continue with the stand-downs until it is convinced Cruise West vessels are being operated and maintained safely, Robert said.

Jerrol Golden, spokeswoman for Cruise West, which operates nine small cruise ships, would not comment on the Coast Guard program, though she said safety is a top priority for the company. She stressed none of the incidents this season involved any injuries.

"Each incident is different, and there's definitely lessons learned immediately," she said. "There's no doubt the management system is under review by us, for sure."

She would not elaborate.


RS

Friday, July 18, 2008

How Intense Will Storms Get? New Model Helps Answer Question

How Intense Will Storms Get? New Model Helps Answer Question

ScienceDaily (July 9, 2008)
A new mathematical model indicates that dust devils, water spouts, tornadoes, hurricanes and cyclones are all born of the same mechanism and will intensify as climate change warms the Earth's surface.

The new equation, developed by University of Michigan atmospheric and planetary scientist Nilton Renno, could allow scientists to more accurately calculate the maximum expected intensity of a spiraling storm based on the depth of the troposphere and the temperature and humidity of the air in the storm's path. The troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere.

This equation improves upon current methods, Renno says, because it takes into account the energy feeding the storm system and the full measure of friction slowing it down. Current thermodynamic models make assumptions about these variables, rather than include actual quantities.

"This model allows us to relate changes in storms' intensity to environmental conditions," Renno said. "It shows us that climate change could lead to increases in how efficient convective vortices are and how much energy they transform into wind. Fueled by warmer and moister air, there will be stronger and deeper storms in the future that reach higher into the atmosphere."

Renno and research scientist Natalia Andronova used the model to quantify how intense they expect storms to get based on current climate predictions. For every 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit that the Earth's surface temperature warms, the intensity of storms could increase by at least a few percent, the scientists say. For an intense storm, that could translate into a 10 percent increase in destructive power.

Renno's model is what scientists call a "generalization" of Daniel Bernoulli's 18th-century equation that explains how airplane flight is possible. Bernoulli's equation basically says that as wind speed increases, air pressure decreases. It leaves out variables that were considered difficult to deal with such as friction and energy sources (which, in the case of a whirling storm, is warm air and condensation of water vapor.) And in certain idealized situations, omitting that information works fine.

But by including these additional variables, Renno was able to broaden Bernoulli's equation to apply it to more general phenomena such as atmospheric vortices.

"The laws of physics are generally very simple," Renno said. "When you make assumptions, you are not representing the simple, basic law anymore. If you don't make assumptions, your equations have those simple, basic laws in them. It gets a little more complicated to get to the solution, but you don't introduce error, and you answer is more elegant, more simple."

Renno's work bolsters studies by others who say hurricanes have grown stronger over the past 50 years as sea surface temperatures have risen. This effect has not been extreme enough for humans to notice without looking, scientists say. Hurricane Katrina and Cyclone Nargis were not the most intense storm to hit land in the past half century. Other factors contributed to the devastation they caused.

This new model helps explain the formation of spiral bands and wall clouds, the first clouds that descend during a tornado. It's clear now that they are the result of a pressure drop where the airspeed has increased.

Renno says unifying convective vortices from dust devils to cyclones will help scientists better understand them.

"This is the first thermodynamic model that unifies all these vortices," he said. "When you unify them, you can see the big picture and you can really understand what makes them form and change."

A co-investigator on NASA's Mars Phoenix Lander mission, Renno has used his new model to calculate the intensity of dust storms in Mars' polar regions. He found that at the Phoenix landing site dust storms can have winds in excess of 200 mph.

Renno is an associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences. Andronova is a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences.

WEATHER NOTE

Spotting Storms?

This is from a Wisconsin storm spotter/chaser on June 27, 2008. Talk about an unusual radar target!



"My bother called from Antigo to say he has been watching three triangular shaped UFO's flying a little north of Antigo the past hour. I don't have time to look outside but check out this radar loop from Green Bay.."

You never know......

World weather expert says El Nino, La Nina outlook mild


The World Meteorological Organisation said Tuesday that 2008 was proving a year of respite from natural climatic phenomena identified by scientists as causing havoc with weather patterns.

The effects of El Nino and La Nina, respectively the warming and related cooling of Pacific sea surface temperatures, are felt in many parts of the globe, and have been blamed for a lengthy drought in Australia, flooding in the Horn of Africa and Bolivia, and more severe winter monsoons in South Asia in 2006-2007.

However, WMO official Rupa Kumar Kroll said that effects over the coming months are expected to be mild.

"Near neutral conditions are considered the most likely outcome for the middle part of the year and shortly thereafter," Kroll said, adding that La Nina "gradually weakened from its peak strength in February."

"Rapid development of El Nino or re-development of La Nina is not considered likely for the middle part of the year," he said.

The expert nevertheless cautioned that other factors which also influence seasonal climatic patterns could still trigger extreme weather conditions.

MARITIME NOTE

Riverdance ferry contractors praised after Cleveleys clear up

The contractors charged with cutting up the stricken Riverdance ferry have been praised for their work in keeping the beach clear of oil.

Nearly all of the oil has now been removed from the ship by Hancock’s Contractors Ltd and sub-contractor PGC Demolition Ltd, and the firms have been congratulated for their work.

Hugh Shaw, the secretary of state's representative for the operation, said: “The progress that has been made during the operation has been excellent and we are delighted that the beach has been kept free of oil.

“The contractors have gone to a great effort on the environmental side of things and they deserve full credit for that.”

Work is set to start soon on the removal of the engine and the remaining fuel tanks from the vessel, which ran aground just south of Cleveleys on January 31.

Cruise West already under Coast Guard watch
FLEET OPERATOR: Ships are being inspected and crew members questioned.

By JAMES HALPIN

The number of mishaps aboard Cruise West vessels so far this season has landed the company on a special program to review the ships' safety and maintenance procedures, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

Seattle-based Cruise West ships have so far suffered three mechanical failures and two groundings, including the most recent that took place Monday morning when the Spirit of Glacier Bay ran aground in Tarr Inlet near its namesake bay.

The Coast Guard began talking to the company about the trend after its ships suffered the second mechanical failure of the season, said Capt. Scott Robert, Coast Guard sector Juneau commander.

Mechanical problems are common on ships, and the Coast Guard in Alaska responds to hundreds of such calls each season, he said. But the number specifically on Cruise West ships this season prompted the extra attention, he said.

"After the third mechanical failure and the (first) grounding is when we started to take a very proactive approach on looking at the safety systems on board those vessels," Robert said. "These safety stand-downs are above and beyond what we, the Coast Guard, typically do with this industry."

The Coast Guard frequently holds surprise spot inspections and evaluates vessels at the beginning of the season, Robert said. The "safety stand-downs" are an added layer of oversight to promote safety and prevent serious accidents, he said.

As part of the plan, all of Cruise West's ships are being inspected by Coast Guard personnel, who are examining safety plans, equipment and maintenance policies, Robert said. The boardings also entail talking to crew members to improve their awareness of safety conditions, he said.

Cruise West officials are working in partnership, with its vice president "actively participating" in the stand-downs, Robert said. The boardings are scheduled in advance and take about two or three hours on average, he said. They are being held wherever the ships are -- in Alaska and elsewhere.

"This is a Coast Guard-wide issue," Robert said. "This is a combined, overarching look (at) Cruise West across the entire Coast Guard."

The agency plans to continue with the stand-downs until it is convinced Cruise West vessels are being operated and maintained safely, Robert said.

Jerrol Golden, spokeswoman for Cruise West, which operates nine small cruise ships, would not comment on the Coast Guard program, though she said safety is a top priority for the company. She stressed none of the incidents this season involved any injuries.

"Each incident is different, and there's definitely lessons learned immediately," she said. "There's no doubt the management system is under review by us, for sure."

She would not elaborate.



Messing About In Ships Podcast


Have a really great weekend!

RS

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Don't take chances when thunderstorms or tornadoes hit in the summer

Don't take chances when thunderstorms or tornadoes hit in the summer

Summer weather conditions such as thunderstorms and tornadoes can catch people off guard and be very dangerous.

If the weather is fair, many of us will be outside today. We'll enjoy the company of friends and family, perhaps watch a parade with a child, grill some hamburgers or light up a sparkler to celebrate the holiday.

While we revel in spending long days outside at this time of year, it's important to maintain awareness of the potential for danger from summer storms, particularly those that occur with little warning.

Many people fear major storm events, such as hurricanes, and take significant steps to prepare for them. Readiness in the event of an approaching storm is key to surviving the storm and minimizing damage, according to experts. And, because hurricanes occur over a period of time, they can be tracked and their paths predicted, giving those in their paths time to take the necessary precautions.

Thunderstorms and tornadoes, however, are more challenging to prepare for because they're often unpredictable and catch people off guard.

"The larger the storm, the easier it is to predict," said John Frye, a meteorologist who will join the geography department at Kutztown University for the fall term as an assistant professor. "Hurricanes last days to weeks, but thunderstorms can last only a few hours, and tornadoes only minutes. That makes it difficult to say where they'll occur. We're good at predicting that they will occur, but it's difficult to say exactly where."

According to the National Weather Service, an average of 100,000 thunderstorms occur throughout the United States every year, along with 5,000 floods and 1,000 tornadoes. Potential dangers of those storms, of course, include lightning, hail, high winds and dangerous waters.

Lightning is a major concern in thunderstorms, Frye said, and everyone, including children, should be aware of its potential danger.

"There's definitely a possibility that you could be hurt or suffer fatal injury," Frye said.

Pennsylvania ranks third among the 50 states in the most combined deaths and injuries caused by lightning, according to the National Weather Service. Only Florida and Michigan had more lightning-related deaths and injuries.

And, Frye said, a thunderstorm doesn't have to be right on top of you before lightning becomes a threat.

"If you can hear thunder, you're in the danger range of being struck by lightning," he said.

Frye cited the National Weather Service's "30-30 Rule," which advises people to get inside when there is 30 seconds between a lightning flash and the following clap of thunder, and not go back outside until 30 minutes after the last clap of thunder.

"That's good advice," Frye said. "You don't want to take chances in a thunderstorm."

The National Weather Service issues watches and warnings for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. A watch, explained Frye, is when atmospheric conditions are favorable for storms of these types and the area in which they're likely to occur has been identified. A warning, he said, is when a storm has been identified by trained spotters or radar, and is in progress.

WEATHER NOTE

'Weather Geek' Runs Hurricane Center

MIAMI - MIAMI - When hurricanes and tropical storms threaten the United States, a self-described "weather geek" will let the nation know what the dangers are.

National Hurricane Center director Bill Read marked a small milestone Monday. He's one month into the Atlantic hurricane season, with five more to go.

So far, there has been only Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started on June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula. Ahead, however, are typically the season's busiest months, August and September.

With things quiet so far, the center has had more time to adjust to Read, who took over after the contentious departure of his predecessor, Bill Proenza, who was on the job only six months before he was placed on leave last July. The center's staff urged his dismissal, saying he exaggerated problems with a satellite and undermined forecasters.

Read said when he took over that he was a little more laid back than Proenza. His hurricane kit contains "Ritz crackers and peanut butter." His son's cell phone plays The Doors' song "Riders on the Storm" when he calls.

Like other center directors, however, Read said he expects to spend a lot of time talking about hurricane preparedness, including how to secure homes against storms, urging families to create a storm plan and encouraging people to have sufficient hurricane supplies.

"It just drives me nuts that we haven't solved that problem," Read said in describing the challenge of getting people to prepare.

In particular, Read said he wants to try to understand why some people or neighborhoods evacuate and others do not. Then, he wants to tailor his message to individual communities. In places like New Jersey, which hasn't had a hurricane make landfall since 1903, there should be a different way of talking about preparedness than in places that have seen hurricanes more frequently, he said.

"The one pamphlet response to hurricane preparedness is not going to work," Read said.

Born in South Weymouth, Mass., and raised in Delaware, Read said he knew he loved weather early on: He would press his face up against the windows of his house to watch snow fall.

He went to Texas A&M to study meteorology and then was drafted into the military. He served as a meteorologist flying aboard Navy hurricane hunter aircraft for two seasons. Though at the time he had been on only a handful of airline flights, it was his job to control the plane's path through the storm at low altitudes of 500 or 1,500 feet.

"I think I gave religion to a lot of people," he said.

After finishing with the Navy and returning to Texas A&M for a master's degree, Read joined the National Weather Service in 1977. He served in several posts before being chosen to lead the weather service's Houston-Galveston office in 1992. He held that job until moving to Miami and the National Hurricane Center.

If his job in Texas was like a steak dinner, heading the National Hurricane Center was the "extra piece of key lime pie afterwards: not expected but enjoyed nonetheless," Read said.

People who know him say he is well equipped to deal with the job's pressures.

Paul J. Croft, a meteorology professor at Kean University in New Jersey, succeeded Read in 2004 as president of the National Weather Association. Read always tells people what he does and does not know, Croft said.

"He's always been one to give it to you straight," Croft said.

Read, meanwhile, said he's already gotten advice from Max Mayfield, the former center director who held the job from 2000 to 2007. Mayfield told him if he stayed on the job more than five years his gray hair would turn white. Read said he would stay until "it's no longer fun.

MARITIME NOTE

Maritime safety not a priority in RP; Coast Guard struggles to stay afloat

What is considered to be the biggest maritime disaster in the world happened on Philippine waters — the 1987 collision between passenger ship MV Doña Paz and oil tanker MT Vector. Post-tragedy reports revealed the dead numbered as many as 4,000, although the official death toll was at 1,856.

The country’s 36,289-kilometer coastline, one of the longest in the world, is being safeguarded by an insufficient number of vessels and aircraft of the Philippine Coast Guard. Worse, 40 percent of these are not operational.

Communication among Coast Guard units is mainly by cellular phone — through text messaging instead of voice calls — supplemented by a limited number of radios.

The agency has yet to experience the fruits of the various foreign-funded projects, but in at least two of these projects — the Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) and Maritime Safety Improvement Project Phase III (MSIP-III) — the Commission on Audit bewailed the loss of millions of pesos in wasted funds.

The Coast Guard itself, on its website, has no illusions about its Herculean task: “The enormous task to perform the multifarious functions of safeguarding the country’s vital sea-lanes from maritime lawlessness, preserving its marine resources and promoting Safety of Life and Property at Sea with its limited resources.”

‘ Not ready for sea’

Data from the Coast Guard Action Center show that the agency has 59 vessels and five aircraft, 40 percent of which are either “Not Ready For Sea” or grounded as of July 1.

The United States Coast Guard says a “Not Ready for Sea” evaluation means Coast Guard inspectors identified mechanical, structural, or safety deficiencies serious enough to render the boat not fully capable of performing search and rescue missions.

“We don’t even have an all-weather vessel na kahit bumabagyo pwedeng gamitin,” said Coast Guard spokesperson Lt. Commander Armand Balilo. An average of 19 tropical cyclones pass the Philippine area of responsibility every year.

Of the 14 vessels, six are “not ready for sea” (NRFS) including the search and rescue vessels BRP (Barko ng Republika ng Pilipinas) Edsa II and BRP San Juan; auxiliary escorts BRP Corregidor, BRP Kalinga and BRP Limasawa; and patrol gunboat BRP Palawan.

BRP San Juan, BRP Edsa II and BRP Corregidor are on dry dock. BRP Kalinga and BRP Limasawa are undergoing repairs, while BRP Palawan is undergoing engine repair.

The Coast Guard has five aircrafts, but two of these are grounded — the Helo 163 and Cessna 1242.

Of the 31 small craft assigned to the 10 Coast Guard district headquarters, 14 are NRFS.

• All but one of the nine Diesel Fast vessels at the Maritime Security and Law Enforcement Command are NRFS.

• Of the 11 small craft in the Coast Guard District of National Capital Region-Central Luzon, two are NRFS.

• All two small vessels assigned to the Coast Guard District of Central Eastern Visayas in Cebu are NRFS.

• The two Diesel Fast vessels in Southwestern Mindanao, based in Zamboanga City, are ready for sea; each of the DF vessels in the Coast Guard Districts of Palawan and Southern Tagalog are RFS.

• One of the three DF vessels in Western Visayas, based in Iloilo, is NRFS.

• In the Coast Guard District of Southeastern Mindanao, based in Davao, one of the two DFs is NRFS.

• There are no recorded small craft in the Coast Guard Districts of Northern Luzon, Bicol and Northern Mindanao

The Coast Guard is also “borrowing” 14 monitoring, control and surveillance vessels from the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources. Of these, three are NRFS.

‘Txt lang’

For communication, Coast Guard personnel depend on the ubiquitous cell phone. In many instances, messages are sent through text messaging, said Lt. Commander Daniel Inri Gayosa, head of the Coast Guard Weapons, Communications, Electronics and Information System Command.

Gayosa said the Coast Guard headquarters has distributed cellular phones among the staff manning its 53 stations and more than 200 detachments nationwide. Each cell phone receives a minimum prepaid allowance of P500.

Siyempre, kulang yung load. Kaya presently nagre-rely na lang sa text e,” Gayosa said.

Apart from cell phones, the stations are also equipped with HF (high frequency) and VHF (very high frequency) radios. But Gayosa said not all remotely located detachments have radios.

A recent GMA News television report noted that only one radio is working in the operations center of the Coast Guard headquarters in Manila.

Gayosa said the agency’s current inventory of communication equipment is mainly used for administrative communication such as receiving reports from the various units.

“Almost 100 percent — 98 percent — of (the 53) stations have VHF radios pero sa mga detachment, ang conservative estimate 30 percent lang,” he said.
“Supposedly, dahil sa remote location ng mga detachment, dapat at least may HF sila. But not all has one.”

VHF radios are intended mainly for short-range communications. VHF radio signals operate in “line of sight“ fashion, generally five to 10 miles. To communicate at longer ranges, MF (medium frequency)/HF radios are needed.

Still, Gayosa noted that troubled ships with HF equipment usually call first their parent companies, who will then inform them of the situation.

GMDSS

Maritime communications should have improved had the Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) pushed through.

GMDSS, a system initiated by the International Maritime Organization, was designed to enhance ship-to-shore communications and provide rapid automated distress alerting through shore-based facilities for Maritime Search and Rescue Communication Stations in 19 sites nationwide.

The contract to procure equipment amounting to almost P300 million was entered into between the DOTC and French company Thomson CSF NCS-France (later renamed Thales) in 1998. According to the National Economic and Development Authority and the Mindanao Economic Development Council, the project was funded by the French government.

The 2006 Commission on Audit report on DOTC said the contractor abandoned the project in July 2000 “due to a billing dispute” and after more than five years of negotiations between the parties, the termination agreement has yet to be finalized.

In a separate audit report in 2003, COA — citing the GMDSS Project Management Office — noted that out of the P295,854,823.62 worth of delivered equipment, 71.99 percent or P212,981,302.93 was not installed by the contractor.

“The container vans containing the uninstalled equipment located at various project sites are now in the state of deterioration due to long exposure to open environment while the facilities installed in the completed stations are now beginning to deteriorate due to lack of maintenance. Likewise, the unfinished stations/buildings are in danger of imminent collapse and may pose hazard to the public and nearby structures,” the COA report said.

“It is worthy to mention that the Department had already expended so much for the above projects and yet no significant progress/development was reported. Such costs and other resources would be wasted and the benefits that could have been derived from the projects could no longer be achieved if the installation of the equipment would not be completed,” it added.

Gayosa said the Coast Guard, as end user of the project, is not allowed to use the equipment until those were formally turned over.

But Gayosa said the Coast Guard is expecting next week the arrival of communications equipment from the Japanese grant-aid project Enhancement of Communications System for Maritime Safety and Security.

A Japanese Embassy press release said the 609-million yen project, signed in 2007, aims to establish satellite communications system in 11 stations nationwide, connecting the Coast Guard headquarters and its district offices, “to improve and enhance the PCG’s capability for search and rescue as well as counter-terrorism.”

Twenty-four stations, under the Manila, Cebu and Zamboanga District Offices, will also be equipped with VHF/HF Radio System. Six Metro Manila stations will be equipped with Microwave Communications System in and three stations of the Manila coast will be rehabilitated and upgraded.

ODA loan projects

Data from the 2008 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing show that the Department of Transportation and Communications is the implementing agency of at least 14 ODA-funded maritime projects.

Based on data from the Department of Budget and Management, the government is already paying for these projects.

The loans include two French Protocol loans on global maritime safety and five Japan Bank for International Cooperation/Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund (JBIC/OECF) on maritime communication and safety improvement projects.

JBIC’s Maritime Safety Improvement Project (MSIP) is a 3,516-million yen loan for the emergency rehabilitation of navigational aid facilities — 37 lighthouses and light beacons — in the Manila-Cebu sea road and training required for the operation and maintenance of these facilities.

MSIP-2 is a 5,579-million yen loan that also sought the installation and rehabilitation of navigational aid facilities such as lighthouses.

JBIC’s Maritime Communication Project is a 2,633 million-yen loan amount seeking to ensure efficient and reliable maritime communication services by constructing a Manila Central Coast Station consisting of a transmitting station, receiving station and operation center and a Manila Port Station.

It would install maritime radio communication equipment for these stations as well as training equipment and UHF link from the Operation Center to Pagasa and Philippine Ports Authority.

Spain — through Bancaja, one of its largest banks, and Instituto de Credito Oficial (ICO), a lending unit — extended loans for an oceanographic research vessel, MSIP-3 and MSIP-3-1.

New Zealand Banking Group Limited-Export Finance and Insurance Corporation (ANZ-EFIC) provided loans for research and rescue vessels.

The government is still paying for all these loans.

But it appears that the Coast Guard has yet to reap the fruits of these projects.

Defective lighthouses

How these projects will be implemented is another story.

In the 2004 audit of the DOTC, COA said 13 lighthouses — worth close to P52 million — under the first and second batches of the Maritime Safety Improvement Project Phase III (MSIP-III) were defective.

Lighthouses provide navigational safety at sea.

The Mindanao Economic Development Council website said MSIP-3, a Spanish ODA project, involves the acquisition of two maritime accident response vessels and construction of marine accident response and support base in Cebu City. It also includes the construction and rehabilitation of 120 lighthouses nationwide.

Findings of COA technical staff in 2004 on inspection of a total of 13 lighthouses — seven from the first batch and six from the second batch — showed that the light stations “may only be useful for a short period since the defective marine aids-to-navigation equipment may easily cause the light stations to be non-operational.”

Nine of the 13 light stations were already not functioning at the time of inspection although they were accepted only last April 2002 and January 2003.

“For the 13 light stations alone, the government had expended the amounts of US$1,089,400 or equivalent to P43,576,000.00 for the defective equipment and P8,345,528.43 for the cost of civil works which may be considered useless due to non-functional/non-operational light stations,” the report said.

La Maquinista Valencia, S.A. bagged the US$13,798,888 contract for the supply and delivery of the marine aids-to-navigation equipment. C.T. Leoncio Construction and Trading and Atlantic Erectors Inc. won the contract for the construction of foundation, erection of towers, installation of equipment including lightning protection systems and commissioning of the First and Second Batches, each consisting of twenty-five (25) lighthouses, worth P14,452,870.63 and 20,142,729.05, respectively.

In the 2005 audit on DOTC, COA said the suppliers had been notified in writing about all defective equipment and abnormalities noted in some lighthouses and were asked for replacement.

Insufficient budget

In the 2008 General Appropriations Act, the office of the secretary of the DOTC allotted under operations of “Protection of Philippine Coast” a total of P1,809,623,000 — P1,161,669,000 for personal services, P622,106,000 for MOOE and P25,848,000 for capital outlay. Another P400,000 in MOOE was allotted under “support for operations.”

The Coast Guard budget falls under the DOTC’s Office of the Secretary under “support to operations” and “operations.”

The Coast Guard budget usually increases through supplemental budgets and subsidies, says COA.

The fact that there is no specific line item for the Coast Guard (unlike other DOTC offices such as the Maritime Industry Authority or the National Telecommunications Commission) seems to show that the agency is in the lower rung of the government’s list of priorities.

Kulang talaga,” Balilo said, lamenting the Coast Guard resources. “Hindi kami makakapag-perform what is required of us because we lack the facilities, personnel and equipment.”

A DBM source said the DOTC secretary is the one seeking ODA loans or grants to augment Coast Guard resources.

In 2007, the Coast Guard received a total allotment of P1.93 billion, based on COA reports.

Of its P1.92 billion expenses that year, P1.37 billion or almost 72 percent was spent on salaries and wages of its 4,000 personnel while P545 million or 28 percent was paid out for maintenance and other operating expenses.

The allotments have actually increased: In 2006, The Coast Guard received P1.82 billion and P1.33 billion in 2005. - GMA News Research






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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Satellite View Of Cloud Tops Might Warn Of Storms

Satellite View Of Cloud Tops Might Warn Of Storms

ScienceDaily (July 11, 2008) For three years, a new way to use data collected by NOAA weather satellites has been giving North Alabama short-term warnings of "pop-up" thunderstorms.

Developed by scientists at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, this new computer program is now spreading to other parts of the U.S. and the world. Later this summer a version of the UAHuntsville weather program will begin forecasting storms throughout Central America, Southern Mexico and the Dominican Republic.

The UAHuntsville Satellite Convection AnalySis & Tracking System (SATCASTS) monitors cumulus clouds as they develop, move and grow through time, according to the person who brainstormed the idea behind the program, Dr. John Mecikalski, an assistant professor of atmospheric science at UAHuntsville.

The program uses data from NOAA’s GOES weather satellites to provide 15-minute to one hour warnings of local thunderstorms. This is the first time forecasters anywhere have had a tool to forecast storms that develop locally. This differs from Doppler radar, which only tracks rain after it starts to fall.

"The radar tells you what's happening, but not what's going to happen," said Wayne MacKenzie, a research associate in UAHuntsville's Earth System Science Center and a member of the SATCASTS development team.

Operated by UAHuntsville scientists for the National Weather Service forecast office in Huntsville for about three years, SATCASTS has been accurate in its storm forecasts between 65 and 75 percent of the time. It has successfully identified hazards generated by thunderstorms, including lightning, hail, high wind, flash floods and turbulence.

Mecikalski got the idea for SATCASTS in 2001, when he was affiliated with NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Studies. He was looking for a way to determine which of the thousands of cumulus clouds present on any given summer afternoon will become thunderstorms. (One percent or less of clouds develop into rain clouds.) He has continued his research since joining the faculty at UAHuntsville in January 2004.

Using data from the GOES visible and infrared sensors, SATCASTS tracks changes in both cloud temperature (height) and water vapor. This data is updated every 15 minutes.

The UAHuntsville team has determined that one of the most important factors in predicting thunderstorms is temperature change. If the top of a cloud cools by 4 C (about 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) or more in 15 minutes, that means the cloud is growing quickly and there is a growing probability of rain beginning within 30 minutes to an hour. A 4 C drop in temperature typically means a cloud top has climbed between 1/4 to 1/3 of a kilometer.

Based on its success in the Huntsville forecast office, scientists at UAHuntsville are working with the National Weather Service to transition SATCASTS into the storm prediction systems in forecast offices in Birmingham, AL, and Nashville, TN, as well as both Melbourne and Miami, FL.

The UAHuntsville team is also working with NASA and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to test SATCASTS' possible utility in aviation and air traffic control. The system is being tested at the FAA’s New York City air traffic control center. If successful, SATCASTS might be used worldwide to warn pilots of storms, turbulence and other weather threats before they occur.

Other organizations evaluating the operational implementation of the SATCASTS algorithm include the European Meteorological Satellite agency and the South African Weather Service. Discussions are also under way to bring SATCASTS capabilities to East Africa.

While SATCASTS joins a sophisticated and extensive network of weather monitoring systems in the U.S., it is expected to have special value in regions where storm forecasting and monitoring have been limited or non-existent. The system is relatively inexpensive to install and operate, since it uses freely distributed weather data from existing satellite sensors.

NOAA-funded research at UAHuntsville will focus on expanding SATCASTS' capabilities. In areas where Doppler radar networks do not exist, SATCASTS might be used in the future to track frontal storm systems and provide severe weather warnings that are not presently available, Mecikalski said.

"This makes SATCASTS and satellite-based rainfall predictions very relevant in many developing countries, when ground-based radar is absent but high quality satellite data are in place."

The UAHuntsville SATCASTS team includes Mecikalski, two other scientists and three graduate students. The project has been supported by more than $1 million in funding from NOAA, NASA and the FAA.

Research on improving SATCASTS is ongoing and is expected to continue for at least five years. New areas of research include 30-to-90-minute lightning and flash flood forecasts.

The UAHuntsville team is also working on a next generation SATCASTS, which will take advantage of the improved sensing systems that will be available when NOAA launches it GOES-R series of satellites beginning in 2016. Sensors on those satellites will collect data in more channels, more often and at higher resolution.

WEATHER NOTE

NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration Poised to Respond as Hurricane Season Starts

NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration Poised to Respond as Hurricane Season Starts

Washington, DC (2 July 2008): With the arrival of hurricane season, NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) is prepared to respond quickly to hazardous material spill incidents resulting from severe storm events. OR&R scientists work with federal, state and local agencies to provide scientific support and assistance before, during and after hurricanes strike.

"NOAA, through the Office of Response and Restoration, is part of the multi-agency response team providing oil spill trajectories and environmental data so that quick decisions can be made on where to collect oil and what measures can be taken to protect critical environmental resources" says Dave Westerholm, director of NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration. "The federal and state on-scene coordinators rely on NOAA's ability to provide accurate and timely on-scene scientific support, overflights, meteorological data and modeling."

Located around the country, OR&R's Scientific Support Coordinators work other divisions within NOAA, U.S. Coast Guard and other response organizations by providing on scene coordination and scientific support. The NOAA scientific team assists with spill
response, information management, search and rescue missions, vessel groundings, lost or sunken oil platforms, releases from coastal industrial facilities, and other impacts from hurricanes.

OR&R also addresses longer-term recovery efforts including assessment and removal of hazardous and non-hazardous marine debris, natural resource damage assessment, and restoration of coastal habitats.

"It is important to understand that as a natural resource trustee, NOAA has the added responsibility of assessing any coastal oil or hazardous material impact and developing an appropriate restoration strategy for that area," adds Westerholm. "Assessment and restoration extend well beyond the initial response and cleanup, and often involves all the response agencies and impacted communities."

During the 2005 hurricane season, NOAA OR&R staff responded to multiple storms and staffed nine command posts in four different states. One of these storms was Hurricane Katrina. Even before Hurricane Katrina hit land, OR&R was preparing for its impact, providing critical infrastructure assessments, discussing possible points of impact, and coordinating critical personnel in the region.

OR&R performed overflights to evaluate reports of numerous oil spills and vessel sinkings and provided environmental review to the U.S. Coast Guard to address more than 3,000 stranded or sunken vessels. OR&R is still working today to identify and develop abatement strategies for marine debris that was moved to the coastal waters from this hurricane.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.

Contact NOAA:

NOAA: http://www.noaa.gov

MARITIME NOTE

BEST OF gCaptain

Maersk Holyhead and Pequot

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November 2005 - Two vessels are intending to pass one another during daylight hours, in the calm waters of Lake Maracaibo. They are the LNG carrier M/T Maersk Holyhead and bulk carrier M/V Pequot — large, modern vessels with the latest communications & navigational equipment.




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