Atlantic water temperatures climbing, storm experts warn

Atlantic water temperatures climbing, storm experts warn

By NEIL JOHNSON THE TAMPA TRIBUNE

April 5, 2008

ORLANDO — There is good news and bad news on the hurricane front: Water in the Pacific could be shifting to create less-hospitable conditions for the storms to form, but things in the Atlantic seem to be perking up.

Cool water in the Pacific Ocean seems to be warming slightly, though La Niña is expected to linger through the spring. This weather pattern's disappearance would make it harder for storms to form.

The water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is also warming, however, and other conditions are in place in the Atlantic to keep water temperatures rising. That is good for hurricanes.

That is the assessment of Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University, speaking at Friday's closing session of the National Hurricane Conference.

Klotzbach is assuming much of the forecasting work done until now by William Gray, the Colorado State professor who has issued forecasts of hurricane seasons since 1984. The pair's next forecast will come Wednesday at a hurricane conference in the Bahamas.

Their last forecast in December called for 13 named storms and seven to become hurricanes. Three of those are expected to grow to storms of Category 3 or larger. That is slightly above the long-term average for a season.

It does not appear that the numbers will go down in the new forecast, said Gray, who also spoke at the conference's closing session.

Gray said active seasons are likely to be with us in coming years.

"We have this multi-decadal cycle that's bringing many more storms to the Atlantic, particularly category 3, 4 and 5 storms," Gray said.

Hurricane frequency in the Atlantic swings from calm to active over periods that last 20 to 25 years. The Atlantic entered an active phase in 1995.

Much of the swing in activity depends on ocean circulation driven by changes in salinity, Gray said.

While one part of the globe may be drifting into neutral conditions for hurricanes, neither aiding their formation nor hindering them, the opposite side of the world is starting to favor hurricanes.

La Niña, when water in the tropical Pacific cools below normal, is still in place though weakening slightly, according to the Climate Prediction Center. It may wane by the end of spring. Forecast models are split on whether it will stay through summer.

Klotzbach said spring is a difficult time for forecasters to predict what La Niña will do in the summer. The cool water of La Niña weakens the jet stream that blows from the west, seven miles above the earth. The weaker jet stream means those winds that normally can inhibit hurricane growth are not in place, and it is easier for storms to form.

Even if La Niña weakens and the Pacific returns to neutral conditions, water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic have risen in the past few months, Klotzbach said. Also, trade winds moving from the east have diminished, and air pressures have dropped.

"Traditionally, when you see that warming, especially in the eastern Atlantic, you see more hurricane activity," Klotzbach said.

He said water temperatures in the Atlantic were lower in 2007, one reason many of the storms that formed did not become too powerful.

WEATHER NOTE

Preparing for the next storm: Tips on readying for disaster

By the Daily News

A family preparedness plan needs to be in place for all hazards, natural or manmade, and should contain a kit to sustain a family for 72 hours.

Ronnie Pearson, director of Warren County Emergency Management Services, said if a disaster is severe enough, it could take that long for emergency service personnel to reach someone.

That’s why it’s also a good idea for residents to become involved in a Community Emergency Response Team that provides training on how to use a fire extinguisher, basic first aid and light extrication, Pearson said.

Kits should contain food and water - one gallon of water per person per day - canned staple foods, a first aid kit, a battery-powered AM/FM radio and any type of important medical documentation.

“They also need to have drills similar to fire drills so that everyone knows where to go in the case of an emergency so everyone can be accounted for,” Pearson said.

“And everyone should have a NOAA weather radio,” he said.

Those radios can be purchased at just about any discount store or electronics store for as little as $29.99. Those with SAME technology will allow owners to go the NOAA Web site and program in the codes for the counties which they wish to be alerted about. Those without SAME technology will probably alert for a 14 or so county area, Pearson said.

Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services has several online publications that can help families in formulating their plans, he said. The state Department of Homeland Security also offers tips.

The cabinet also recommends having the following items prepared:

Clothing, blankets and sleeping bags

Battery-powered flashlight with extra batteries

Candles and matches

Sanitation supplies, including iodine tablets and bleach to disinfect water

Toilet articles and special needs items for infants, older adults or disabled family members

Extra sets of car keys and eyeglasses

If you have a car, try to keep at least 1/2 tank of gas in it at all times

Important family documents in a waterproof container

For more information, visit chfs.ky.gov/dph/epi/ preparedness/WhatYouCanDo ToBePrepared.htm or homeland security.ky.gov/. For information about weather radios, go to www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/nwr rcvr.htm.

RS

High Tech Cowboys of the Deep Seas: The Race to Save the Cougar Ace

I post this article because it presents a interesting backgrounder on people in the marine salvage community.

A industry that many have either never heard of or do not understanding what marine salvage companies actually do or go through to get the job done.

They are truly first responders and sometimes the only responders.

High Tech Cowboys of the Deep Seas: The Race to Save the Cougar Ace

Latitude 48° 14 North. Longitude 174° 26 West.

Almost midnight on the North Pacific, about 230 miles south of Alaska's Aleutian Islands. A heavy fog blankets the sea. There's nothing but the wind spinning eddies through the mist.

( Pix: The Cougar Ace lists at a precarious angle in Wide Bay, Alaska. Photo: Courtesy of US Coast Guard )

Out of the darkness, a rumble grows. The water begins to vibrate. Suddenly, the prow of a massive ship splits the fog. Its steel hull rises seven stories above the water and stretches two football fields back into the night. A 15,683-horsepower engine roars through the holds, pushing 55,328 tons of steel. Crisp white capital letters — COUGAR ACE — spell the ship's name above the ocean froth. A deep-sea car transport, its 14 decks are packed with 4,703 new Mazdas bound for North America. Estimated cargo value: $103 million.

Joshua Davis narrates this collection of photos and Coast Guard video taken during Titan Salvage's attempt to save the Cougar Ace.

(Video produced and edited by Wired's Annaliza Savage and Michael Lennon. Clips and photos courtesy of US Coast Guard and Titan Salvage.)

On the bridge and belowdecks, the captain and crew begin the intricate process of releasing water from the ship's ballast tanks in preparation for entry into US territorial waters. They took on the water in Japan to keep the ship steady, but US rules require that it be dumped here to prevent contaminating American marine environments. It's a tricky procedure. To maintain stability and equilibrium, the ballast tanks need to be drained of foreign water and simultaneously refilled with local water. The bridge gives the go-ahead to commence the operation, and a ship engineer uses a hydraulic-powered system to open the starboard tank valves. Water gushes out one side of the ship and pours into the ocean. It's July 23, 2006.

In the crew's quarters below the bridge, Saw "Lucky" Kyin, the ship's 41-year-old Burmese steward, rinses off in the common shower. The ship rolls underneath his feet. He's been at sea for long stretches of the past six years. In his experience, when a ship rolls to one side, it generally rolls right back the other way.

This time it doesn't. Instead, the tilt increases. For some reason, the starboard ballast tanks have failed to refill properly, and the ship has abruptly lost its balance. At the worst possible moment, a large swell hits the Cougar Ace and rolls the ship even farther to port. Objects begin to slide across the deck. They pick up momentum and crash against the port-side walls as the ship dips farther. Wedged naked in the shower stall, Kyin is confronted by an undeniable fact: The Cougar Ace is capsizing.

He lunges for a towel and staggers into the hallway as the ship's windmill-sized propeller spins out of the water. Throughout the ship, the other 22 crew members begin to lose their footing as the decks rear up. There are shouts and screams. Kyin escapes through a door into the damp night air. He's barefoot and dripping wet, and the deck is now a slick metal ramp. In an instant, he's skidding down the slope toward the Pacific. He slams into the railings and his left leg snaps, bone puncturing skin. He's now draped naked and bleeding on the railing, which has dipped to within feet of the frigid ocean. The deck towers 105 feet above him like a giant wave about to break. Kyin starts to pray.

Jackson Hole, Wyoming, 4 am.
A phone rings. Rich Habib opens his eyes and blinks in the darkness. He reaches for the phone, disturbing a pair of dogs cuddled around him. He was going to take them to the river for a swim today. Now the sound of his phone means that somewhere, somehow, a ship is going down, and he's going to have to get out of bed and go save it.

It always starts like this. Last Christmas Day, an 835-foot container vessel ran aground in Ensenada, Mexico. The phone rang, he hopped on a plane, and was soon on a Jet Ski pounding his way through the Baja surf. The ship had run aground on a beach while loaded with approximately 1,800 containers. He had to rustle up a Sikorsky Skycrane — one of the world's most powerful helicopters — to offload the cargo.

Rich Habib, Senior Salvage Master
Photo: Andrew Hetherington

Ship captains spend their careers trying to avoid a collision or grounding like this. But for Habib, nearly every month brings a welcome disaster. While people are shouting "Abandon ship!" Habib is scrambling aboard.

He's been at sea since he was 18, and now, at 51, his tanned face, square jaw, and don't even try bullshitting me stare convey a world-weary air of command. He holds an unlimited master's license, which means he's one of the select few who are qualified to pilot ships of any size, anywhere in the world. He spent his early years captaining hulking vessels that lifted other ships on board and hauled them across oceans. He helped the Navy transport a nuclear refueling facility from California to Hawaii. Now he's the senior salvage master — the guy who runs the show at sea — for Titan Salvage, a highly specialized outfit of men who race around the world saving ships.

(Full Story Wired Magazine)

MARTIME NOTES:

Messing About In Ships Podcast #12 - Special Interview of US Coast Guard Rescue of Sailors Aboard the Yacht Sean Seymour II

February 25, 2008, 4:33 am
Filed under: podcast, shownotes

Here is the inspiring interview with the US Coast Guard helicopter rescue crew that saved the lives of three sailors aboard the yacht Sean Seymour II.

File Download:Messing About In Ships 12 - Special Interview

Interviewees:

• Aviation Survival Technician Second Class Drew D. Dazzo, H-60 Rescue Swimmer
• Lieutenant Commander Nevada A. Smith, H-60 Aircraft Commander
• Lieutenant Junior Grade Aaron G. Nelson, H-60 Copilot
• Aviation Maintenance Technician Second Class Scott D. Higgins, H-60 Flight Mechanic

Final log entry by Jean Pierre de Lutz, owner of Sean Seymour II

Robin Storm blog: Saved from the Angry Atlantic

Watch for future episodes with interviews with the C130 flight crew and the Sean Seymour II captain/owner.

RS

TRAGEDY SPAWNS HEROES: THE MAKING OF THE COAST GUARD HELICOPTER RESCUE SWIMMER PROGRAM

TRAGEDY SPAWNS HEROES:
THE MAKING OF THE COAST GUARD HELICOPTER RESCUE SWIMMER PROGRAM

By Petty Officer 2nd Class Christopher Evanson Fifth District Public Affairs

5 years ago, a tragic event claimed the lives of 31 Merchant Marines, and the Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer Program was conceived to prevent such disasters from ever happening again. The program has been a guardian angel to many fates nearly taken by the sea.

On the morning of Feb. 12, 1983, gale force winds and 40-foot waves wreaked havoc off the coast of the small Eastern Shore community of Chincoteague, Va. Conditions were the perfect recipe for disaster, a recipe that eventually claimed the lives of 31 mariners by day's end. This tragic event proved to be more catastrophic because the Coast Guard was not prepared to respond. The sad conclusion of the S.S. Marine Electric served as a humbling blow to Coast Guard readiness, and the motto of Semper Paratus. The sacrifice of these mariners, however, indirectly saved the lives of thousands of men and women who would confront the mercy of the sea in the years to follow. The doom of the Marine Electric spawned the Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer Program, and a new generation of lifesavers at sea.

Tragedy at Sea

The S.S. Marine Electric, a 587-foot motor vessel transporting coal departed Norfolk, Va., for Brayton Point, Mass., on Feb. 10, 1983. Thirty-four merchant mariners were aboard as a winter storm pummeled the lower Chesapeake Bay.If four-foot seas within the bay were harsh, the seas awaiting the Marine Electric in the open ocean were in excess of 40 feet.

On Feb. 12, 1983, at approximately 2:51 a.m., a Coast Guard watch stander in Ocean City, Md., was notified by the master of the Marine Electric, reporting his vessel was taking on water near the front end of the ship. By 3 a.m., the entire crew was mustered on deck near the starboard lifeboats preparing to abandon ship. At a quarter after 4 a.m., as the merchant mariners were preparing the lifeboats, the ship was struck by a powerful jolt, possibly a rogue wave, capsizing the vessel to the starboard side. The Marine Electric crew was thrown into the frigid Mid-Atlantic waters recorded at 37 degrees Fahrenheit approximately 30-miles off the coast of Chincoteague. What was an initial distress call now became a massive search and rescue case, but the following events proved far more difficult than ever imagined.

At the time, Coast Guard flight crews did not have the ability or power to deploy rescue swimmers in the sea to recover victims. As strange as it may seem, a crewmember simply lowered a rescue basket from the helicopter in the vicinity of a distressed person in the water. The rescue relied almost entirely on the victim mustering the strength to get in the basket on his or her own. In cold temperatures where shock and hypothermia were prevalent, this practice proved futile.

When a Coast Guard helicopter crew based at Air Station Elizabeth City, N.C., arrived on-scene shortly after 5 a.m., the water was flush with strobe lights, yet little sign of life existed. Not until 6:05 a.m. was a Navy rescue swimmer able to assist with the recovery. The Navy dispatched a helicopter crew from Naval Air Station Oceana in Virginia Beach, Va., which had rescue swimmers trained for search and rescue. One-by-one with the help of the crew of the 82-foot Coast Guard Cutter Point Highland, the Navy rescue swimmer recovered the bodies of the Marine Electric crew from the surface; nearly three hours after the vessel capsized.

Of the 34-crewmembers aboard the Marine Electric, 27 people were recovered; only three survived. Seven Marine Electric crewmembers were never found, possibly still aboard the ship. The deceased were later pronounced dead by medical examiners who indicated the cause of death to be hypothermia and or drowning. Meanwhile, as the sun rose, the Marine Electric had already begun a slow descent into oblivion, beneath the sea where it lay in perpetuity.

Aftermath

Following this tragedy, the Coast Guard launched one of the biggest Marine Board of Investigations in its history. Making the case more overwhelming were congressional representatives seeking to know how such a disaster could happen, and more importantly how can a similar scenario be averted. After several congressional hearings, the Coast Guard Authorization Act of 1984 was passed to ensure the Coast Guard was properly equipped to respond to such cases. An excerpt of the act reads, "The Commandant of the Coast Guard shall use such sums as are necessary, from amounts appropriated for the operational maintenance of the Coast Guard, to establish a helicopter rescue swimmer program for the purpose of training selected Coast Guard personnel in rescue swimming skills."

Introduction of the Guardian

"The Aviation Survival Technician (AST) rating's job which was created in 1969 has always been to inspect and maintain life support equipment, perform ground handling and servicing of aircraft, and conduct aviation administration duties," said Master Chief Petty Officer Donald Murray, Coast Guard Aviation Survival Technician Rating Force Manager.

The Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer Program would become an extension of the AST mission objective, beginning very subtly in the fall of 1984, as a result of the Marine Electric tragedy. The Coast Guard joined forces withthe Navy, which permitted prospective Coast Guard helicopter rescue swimmers to train with fellow Navy swimmers at the U. S. Navy Rescue Swimmer School at Naval Air Station Pensacola, Fla. The rating initially known as Aviation Survivalman or ASM graduated five members in this first class.

After a few years of training with the Navy, it became apparent the Coast Guard needed to make modifications because some of the methods taught at the joint service school were not applicable to the Coast Guard search and rescue mission. These methods included scuba, deploying parachutes, tree extraction, and mountain rescue. The Coast Guard's main emphasis is peacetime rescues, not downed military recovery methods. In addition, the program was not without its challenges. The new feature to Coast Guard aviation generated hesitation and concern from pilots with deploying swimmers in hazardous conditions.

"When the program first became operational, there was considerable reluctance to deploy rescue swimmers except under generally favorable conditions, but it soon became apparent, however, that Coast Guard rescue swimmers would frequently be utilized in extreme weather conditions," said retired Lt. Cmdr. Richard M. Wright, in a 1996 article he authored titled "Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Program".

Rescue swimmers assigned to Air Station Elizabeth City officially became the first operational unit with helicopter rescue swimmers March 5, 1985, with air stations throughout the country following suit throughout the following years. "The Coast Guard went fully operational with the rescue swimmer program in October of 1991 meaning all Aviation Survivalmen, [first class petty officer] and below stood rescue swimmer duty at every Coast Guard air station across the country," said Murray.

Since its inception, the Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue Swimmer program has enhanced the Coast Guard search and rescue mission. "The addition of a Rescue Swimmer asset to Helicopter search and rescue teams has had significant impact on the mission. Hurricane Katrina is our most recent reminder of the value of this asset," said Senior Chief Petty Officer Lewis Hart, who supervises the Aviation Survival Technician "A" school in Elizabeth City.

In the two-plus decades of the programs existence, several innovations in training have allowed rescue swimmers to adapt to unpredictable situations that they often encounter.

"The Rescue Swimmer Program has evolved in a number of ways but mostly in more advanced gear and training. The development of the Advanced Helicopter Rescue School in Astoria, Ore., helps train AST's in advanced techniquessuch as vertical surface rescue, sea cave rescue, heavy surf rescue, and swift water rescue," said Hart. In addition, innovations in sport science became an objective in training rescue swimmers. "The AST 'A' School has also developed a Train the Trainer 'C' School that teaches advance fitness and exercise physiology for training AST airmen and for operational fitness," added Hart.

It has been 25 years since 31 souls from the Marine Electric perished. Since this tragedy, it can be said that many lives have been indirectly saved. It is sometimes though tragedy that good can be extracted, and the Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer has fostered this. Coast Guard Helicopter Rescue swimmers have saved or assisted countless lives in the most harrowing of circumstances. In Hurricane Katrina, more than three-thousand lives were saved as the search and rescue operation unfolded on live television. In addition to survival skills in extreme elements, rescue swimmers are trained emergency medical technicians employing basic skills to victims while transporting to medical facilities ashore.

Nevertheless, perhaps the most important thing to remember is that rescue swimmers do not operate alone. It takes an entire flight crew to make saving lives a reality. "Rescue swimmers are highly visible in search and rescue cases and subsequently receive a lot of media attention," said Hart. "It would be fair to say that the media reports deemphasize the team concept with regard to the rest of the crew in such cases," he added. With lessons learned, the Coast Guard stands by for the next search and rescue case, always ready.

MARITIME NOTES:

USA. Mad Mariner introduces video Docking Game

Thursday, 21 February 2008

Mad Mariner, a leading online resource for independent reviews and in depth articles on boating, has announced the official release of The Docking Game, an Internet-based video game that allows boaters to practice and test their skills in a variety of marinas and conditions.

Chicago Maritime Festival - February 23




Coast Guard releases report on Marine Safety program

(WASHINGTON) -- The U.S. Coast Guard has released an independent study on its Marine Safety program. The report highlights the need to boost the status of Marine Safety within the Coast Guard organization. It also suggests that relations with the maritime community need to be improved. Click here to view the document.

Vessel pushed aground by ice, Azov sea - 2/15/2008 02:00
February 15, 03.15 LT – m/v Nikolay Sutyrin was pushed aground by ice twitch in Taganrog entrance buoy area, when proceeding in ice-convoy with i/b Kapitan Demidov, in southern direction, Azov sea. Vessel got a hole in cofferdam area, hole fixed by crew. Icebreaker Kapitan Demidov returned to m/v Nikolay Sutyrin, to assist refloating. After refloating, vessel will be towed to port for repairs. M/V Nikolay Sutyrin - IMO7119460, dwt 3355 t, built 1971, river-sea type, owner Samarskaya Shipping Co., enroute Azov-Gerasun (Turkey), cargo 3225 mt coal, crew 11, flag Russia.

Messing About In Ships Podcast Episode #11

February 22, 2008, 5:43 am
Filed under: podcast, shownotes

Have a great weekend!

RS

M/F Riverdance, The Horncliff and NWS Chicago Updates

The RoRo ferry Riverdance, which went aground on Thursday night on the foreshore at Blackpool, shifted slightly with the last high tide and has moved further up the beach.

Passengers and non essential crew were airlifted from the vessel last night, by rescue helicopters from Royal Navy, RAF and Irish Coastguard and 14 people including four passengers were winched off. Nine crew members, who had remained on board to ballast the vessel for improved stability whilst aground, were evacuated this morning.

All crew members have been taken to a hotel, pending arrangements for repatriation. The majority of crew members are Polish.

SOSREP, Secretary of States Representative for Salvage has been in discussion with salvors, but no final plans for refloating have been made. There is no reported oil pollution from the vessel, which is in a stable condition.

There is no change in the situation of the fishing vessel Spinning Dale, which went onto rocks this morning at Village Bay, St Kilda.

Stornoway Coastguard coordinated the rescue of the 14 Spanish crew members after they were unable to evacuate to a life raft due to the severe weather conditions, with Force 9 winds.

The Spinning Dales’ crew members were airlifted off the vessel by Coastguard Rescue Helicopter 100 from Stornoway flown by Liz Forsythe. This was the first time that a woman pilot had carried out an air evacuation from a ship in UK waters. The operation was a difficult one, due to very high winds gusting up to 50 knots above the cliffs.

Rescue mission for seriously injured sea captain

A rescue mission to airlift a seriously injured captain off a ship damaged by force 10 storms has been called.

An RAF helicopter battled force nine winds in a bid to airlift the skipper, who has serious spinal injuries and internal bleeding.

Falmouth Coastguard have said the skipper of the Horn Cliff has serious spinal injuries and internal bleeding

There are reportedly six other passengers on board who are suffering from lesser injuries.

The cargo ship, called the Horncliff, is carrying bananas and other fruit from the Caribbean and was caught in the storm off the Isles of Scilly en route to Dover.

The coastguard has said the vessel has also lost around 90 containers and is listing slightly but there is no danger of it sinking.

The Irish Coast Guard was assisting in the rescue operation and had hoped to take seven people off the vessel, including the captain.

Weather forecaster, Daniel Adamson, said conditions in the Irish Sea are improving significantly.

He said: It's still a windy evening but it's much calmer than it was last night and earlier on today. Conditions have improved a lot.

"There will be more rain tomorrow and it will be a windy weekend, but it will be nothing like as bad as it has been."

© Independent Television News Limited 2008. All rights reserved.

• 
• Play Video RAF rescue sea captain

CHICAGO WEATHER UPDATE!

January 31-February 1 2008 Snow Storm ( NWS REPORT)

A winter storm that developed in the southern plains and tracked northward from the Gulf coast into southern Indiana left a swath of snow of around 4 to 8 inches across north central Illinois and 7 to 12 inches across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana. Light to moderate snow started up late Thursday morning that dropped about an inch to an inch and a half by Thursday afternoon.

Moderate snow, that was heavy at times, started up later in the afternoon Thursday and lasted through the morning on Friday. Some lingering snow lasted through the early afternoon in northwest Indiana that dropped an extra inch or so of snow. Here is a map showing where the heaviest snow fell, along with reports from COOP observers, official NWS observations, CoCoRaHS reports, and public reports. The National Weather Service in Romeoville would like to thank all of our great observers across our area for their reports yesterday and today and everyday!

RS