Climate Change Likely To Intensify Storms, New Study Confirms '

Climate Change Likely To Intensify Storms, New Study Confirms

ScienceDaily (Apr. 19, 2008) — Hurricanes in some areas, including the North Atlantic, are likely to become more intense as a result of global warming even though the number of such storms worldwide may decline, according to a new study by MIT researchers.

Kerry Emanuel, the lead author of the new study, wrote a paper in 2005 reporting an apparent link between a warming climate and an increase in hurricane intensity. That paper attracted worldwide attention because it was published in Nature just three weeks before Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans.

Emanuel, a professor of atmospheric science in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, says the new research provides an independent validation of the earlier results, using a completely different approach. The paper was co-authored by postdoctoral fellow Ragoth Sundararajan and graduate student John Williams and recently appeared in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

While the earlier study was based entirely on historical records of past hurricanes, showing nearly a doubling in the intensity of Atlantic storms over the last 30 years, the new work is purely theoretical. It made use of a new technique to add finer-scale detail to computer simulations called Global Circulation Models, which are the basis for most projections of future climate change.

"It strongly confirms, independently, the results in the Nature paper," Emanuel said. "This is a completely independent analysis and comes up with very consistent results."

Worldwide, both methods show an increase in the intensity and duration of tropical cyclones, the generic name for what are known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic. But the new work shows no clear change in the overall numbers of such storms when run on future climates predicted using global climate models.

However, Emanuel says, the new work also raises some questions that remain to be understood. When projected into the future, the model shows a continuing increase in power, "but a lot less than the factor of two that we've already seen" he says. "So we have a paradox that remains to be explained."

There are several possibilities, Emanuel says. "The last 25 years' increase may have little to do with global warming, or the models may have missed something about how nature responds to the increase in carbon dioxide."

Another possibility is that the recent hurricane increase is related to the fast pace of increase in temperature. The computer models in this study, he explains, show what happens after the atmosphere has stabilized at new, much higher CO2 concentrations. "That's very different from the process now, when it's rapidly changing," he says.

In the many different computer runs with different models and different conditions, "the fact is, the results are all over the place," Emanuel says. But that doesn't mean that one can't learn from them. And there is one conclusion that's clearly not consistent with these results, he said: "The idea that there is no connection between hurricanes and global warming, that's not supported," he says.

WEATHER NOTE

Talking about huge waves... Here is one hitting a cruise ship and catching the bridge crew a little off guard.

From Storm Reports '08 tornado losses top $1 billion, report finds ' RANDY DIAMOND Palm Beach Post Staff Writer Monday, April 21, 2008 This year has been a tough one for people living in areas hit by tornadoes. It hasn't been good for insurers there, either. Insured losses from tornadoes have passed the $1 billion mark this year, according to a new report from A.M. Best, the influential insurance and financial services rating company. About $850 million of that came from the Super Tuesday outbreak that killed 55 people in the mid-South on Feb. 5-6. The first-quarter losses surpassed the previous four-year average, said Oldwick, N.J.-based A.M. Best. Until recently, insurers have taken comfort in the fact that tornado damage historically has not been as severe as that of major hurricanes. "But according to data from catastrophe modeling firms, these events have the potential - with the right conditions - to generate insured losses on par with hurricanes, such as 2004's Hurricane Frances and 2005's Hurricane Rita," the report said. States that recently endured severe tornadoes - including Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi and Arkansas - may see increased premiums, deductibles and coverage interruptions, A.M. Best said. Even more troubling, the firm said a new trend has emerged in the last several years: Losses of $1 billion and more from single-event tornadoes are more common. If tornado-favoring weather patterns continue, insurers could feel more of a struggle to remain profitable, particularly smaller companies that write policies in single states, the rating service said. - Randy Diamond MARITIME NOTE

Shipping industry is ‘courting disaster’

The container shipping industry is sacrificing safety and risking an environmental disaster to reduce costs and meet tight delivery schedules, according to an investigation into the grounding of a ship off the coast of Devon last year.

Another 22 ships have been found to have design flaws similar to those of the MSC Napoli, which was deliberately grounded a mile off Sidmouth after her hull cracked in heavy seas.

The Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) found that the ship was carrying many overloaded containers and had been travelling too fast for the conditions.

After the incident hundreds of people flocked to Branscombe beach to scavenge everything from BMW motorcycles to disposable nappies when dozens of containers washed ashore.

The Napoli, built in 1991 in South Korea, was in the Channel on passage to Portugal from Antwerp when her engine room flooded after a hull failure about 45 miles south of Lizard Point, Cornwall.

The MAIB report, published today, says that after the Napoli hit “several large waves” there was a “large crashing or cracking sound”.

Vertical cracks could be seen in the hull below the waterline on the port and starboard sides, and the ship’s master assessed that the vessel had “broken her back”.

The crew of 26 abandoned ship and were rescued by two Royal Navy helicopters. Tugs began towing the ship towards Portland in Dorset but she was beached en route because there were concerns that she might sink.

The beaching prevented severe oil pollution of Devon and Dorset’s World Heritage Coast.

The MAIB said that a review of safety rules governing container ship design and a code of practice covering operations was urgently needed to prevent further losses.

It concluded that the container shipping industry had been allowed to expand rapidly — from 12 million to 140 million containers a year since 1983 — without proper safety oversight.

The report said: “The commercial advantages of containerisation . . . such as speed and quick turnarounds appear to have become the focus of the industry at the expense of the safe operation of its vessels.”

The MAIB found that a loophole in safety regulations meant that the buckling strength of the hull near the engine room had not been tested.

It also found that ship’s loading contributed to the stresses on the hull. The MAIB condemned the widespread practice in the industry of failing to load containers, either to save time or avoid taxes.

“Container shipping is the only sector of the industry in which the weight of a cargo is not known.”

The MAIB referred to a previous report, which it published last September on the collapse of cargo containers on the Annabella, which concluded: “Evidence obtained during this and other MAIB investigations into container shipping accidents suggests that in reality, the safety of ships, crews and the environment is being compromised by the overriding desire to maintain established schedules or optimise port turn-round times.”

After the Napoli grounding the MAIB ordered the screening of more than 1,500 container ships, and 12 were identified as being potentially vulnerable to buckling in severe conditions and requiring remedial action. A further ten vessels were identified as being borderline and needing more detailed investigation. The screening of eight container ships has yet to be completed.

The International Chamber of Shipping is developing a code of best practice for the industry, which is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

The report said that Britain would conduct a “concentrated inspection campaign” in 2010 to check compliance with tightened safety rules.

A Devon County Council local public inquiry into the grounding of the Napoli will be chaired by Ian Mercer, an environmental specialist. “This inquiry must seek all the answers available, and register with governments the outstanding questions,” Professor Mercer said.

The inquiry’s evidence-gathering process, which was launched last month, was the first stage of the investigation, which will be followed by hearings in public.

The Report

MSC Napoli
Report on the investigation of the structural failure of MSC Napoli in the English Channel on 18 January 2007.
Report No 9/2008
Published 22 April 2008

FROM THE LEGAL BEAGLES AT HOLLAND AND KNIGHT

UK – report on structural failure of the MSC NAPOLI

The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) released the report of its investigation of the structural failure of the container ship MSC NAPOLI in the English Channel on 18 January 2007. The report found that the ship’s hull did not have sufficient buckling strength in way of the engine room; that there was an insufficient safety margin between the hull’s design loading and its ultimate strength; and that the load on the hull was increased by whipping effect. Recommendations have been made to the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) that are intended to increase the requirements for container ship design, consolidate current research into whipping effect, and to initiate research into the development and use of technological aids for measuring hull stresses. As ships get larger, simple extrapolation is insufficient. Report No. 9/2008 (4/22/08).

RS

Jet Streams Are Shifting And May Alter Paths Of Storms And Hurricanes

Jet Streams Are Shifting And May Alter Paths Of Storms And Hurricanes

ScienceDaily (Apr. 17, 2008) — The Earth's jet streams, the high-altitude bands of fast winds that strongly influence the paths of storms and other weather systems, are shifting--possibly in response to global warming. Scientists at the Carnegie Institution determined that over a 23-year span from 1979 to 2001 the jet streams in both hemispheres have risen in altitude and shifted toward the poles. The jet stream in the northern hemisphere has also weakened. These changes fit the predictions of global warming models and have implications for the frequency and intensity of future storms, including hurricanes.

Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology tracked changes in the average position and strength of jet streams using records compiled by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the National Centers for Environmental Protection, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The data included outputs from weather prediction models, conventional observations from weather balloons and surface instruments, and remote observations from satellites.

Jet streams twist and turn in a wide swath that changes from day to day. The poleward shift in their average location discovered by the researchers is small, about 19 kilometers (12 miles) per decade in the northern hemisphere, but if the trend continues the impact could be significant. "The jet streams are the driving factor for weather in half of the globe," says Archer. "So, as you can imagine, changes in the jets have the potential to affect large populations and major climate systems."

Storm paths in North America are likely to shift northward as a result of the jet stream changes. Hurricanes, whose development tends to be inhibited by jet streams, may become more powerful and more frequent as the jet streams move away from the sub-tropical zones where hurricanes are born.

The observed changes are consistent with numerous other signals of global warming found in previous studies, such as the widening of the tropical belt, the cooling of the stratosphere, and the poleward shift of storm tracks. This is the first study to use observation-based datasets to examine trends in all the jet stream parameters, however.

"At this point we can't say for sure that this is the result of global warming, but I think it is," says Caldeira. "I would bet that the trend in the jet streams' positions will continue. It is something I'd put my money on."

The results are published in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters.

WEATHER NOTE

It's Severe Weather Week

Severe Weather Awareness Week takes place April 21-25 this year, with the statewide tornado drills Thursday.

At 1:45 p.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service will issue a simulated tornado warning, and outdoor warning sirens will be activated. At 6:55 p.m., a second drill will take place in Scott County for families and second-shift workers.

“Everyone should practice their safety plans during Severe Weather Awareness Week,” said Chris Weldon, Scott County emergency management director. “There is no pattern to these things. A tornado can happen any day — without warning — and your preparation time is well spent.”

According to National Weather Service data, tornadoes have occurred in every Minnesota county at some time during the past 57 years. Scott County has experienced 12 tornadoes since 1950.

The Minnesota Department of Public Safety Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, along with the National Weather Service and the American Red Cross, sponsors Severe Weather Awareness Week annually to promote weather knowledge and planning. The Web site at www.severweather.state.mn.us, contains tornado safety information along with instructions on surviving thunderstorms, hail, straight-line winds, heat waves, floods and lightning. Links to the National Weather Service and Red Cross provide fascinating weather facts and a variety of downloadable resources for families, teachers and children.

Citizens prepped on disaster response
BY MICHAEL OPPERMANN
SPECIAL TO THE STAR-BANNER

Published: Monday, April 21, 2008 at 6:30 a.m.

OCALA — Marion County government, taking a proactive approach to terrorism, hosted a three-day training course under a grant from the Department of Homeland Security. Successful completion of the course, and an associated online component, granted educational credit to those who passed, better preparing them to respond to the possibility of terrorist events.

From Tuesday to Thursday, two instructors from the Texas Engineering Extension Service trained locals in recognizing, responding to and recovering from terrorist incidents.

The course, "Public Works: Planning for and Responding to a Terrorist/WMD Incident," was designed to help integrate training for terrorist events into existing emergency response plans.

Byrd Wilcox, safety hazard coordinator for the Public Works Bureau, said that while every emergency situation is unique, they all have common elements. Hurricanes, fires, chemical spills and terrorist threats can all be handled using the same crisis management techniques.

"All that this class is teaching the participants is that no matter how small or big [an event] is, it uses the same process," Byrd said.

Instructors Luke Stevens and David Pullen, both longtime public works officials, spent much of the course time discussing how communities react to emergencies and analyzing government response to previous terrorist events.

"One way we learn is from our own experiences. If we do that, then the depth of our knowledge will be limited by our experiences," Pullen said. "If we can learn from other people's experiences, then we broaden our knowledge and broaden the probability of a successful outcome."

Luiz Bisacchi, principle business analyst for public works in Hillsborough County, agrees, having attended the course to aid in the development of his community's hazmat protocols. "The Oklahoma case study was very helpful," he said. "Hopefully I can take some of [what I learned] back home and apply that to our plans."

COMMUNICATION IS KEY

Hot-button issues during the course were communications during an emergency situation and the integration of various agencies into the emergency response.

Lawrence Thacker, Marion County Public Works Bureau Chief, taught the course five years ago, and said that responding to an emergency "takes a lot of communication and a lot of coordination." The inability to do so complicates emergency situations and reduces the effectiveness of recovery efforts.

He feels the most effective way to safely deal with a crisis situation is to develop response plans well in advance and train workers in implementation of those plans.

"Safety is important to me because of my background," Thacker said. "I spent 18 years working underground in coal mines. I know what it is like when you've got your employees with you and you're trapped for 36 hours."

Attendee Andrea Nelson, of the transportation department's Public Education and Outreach section, is aware of the importance of effective communication.

"In a designated emergency I'm assigned to a public information function," she said, "so I think it's always good to know how your area will be interacting with others."

Nelson feels that increased training over the last few years has prepared government employees to better deal with emergencies.

"Setting up an incident command, determining who is in charge, identifying the functions that have to be filled and filling those, I think everyone here has been through the basics of that," she said.

INTEGRATION

Integration of services into a single command and communication structure is equally as important. While many note the disaster relief contributions of police officers, firemen and EMS personnel, they often overlook the contributions of public works employees and volunteers.

Stevens believes 90 percent of an emergency situation involves people from public works.

"Most people who look at an incident are looking at the initial response; it is putting everything back together that is the hardest part. The more that public works is involved, the better off you're going to be," he said. "Either the community is going to respond well together, or everybody is going to lose."

Robert Middleton, senior litter crew supervisor for solid waste, knows the value of integrating his efforts with an emergency response plan.

"We have a plan in place for natural disasters and terrorists," Middleton said. By preparing now, his people will be ready to fulfill their role when called to respond to an emergency situation.

TRAINED VOLUNTEERS

Wilcox said volunteers can be valuable assets in an emergency situation, but only if they are correctly integrated into the response plan. "Volunteers need to be trained and credentialed," he said.

Having people show up at a disaster site without going through proper channels disrupts the command structure and lines of communication, leaves people working at cross-purposes and potentially turns would-be volunteers into victims. Unstable ground, overhead debris, toxic fumes and other hazards can injure or kill the unprepared.

Wilcox suggests that members of the public who want to become involved in disaster response should follow the example of county government and plan ahead. Citizens should prepare disaster supply kits of food, water, flashlights and other necessities and review shelter-in-place and evacuation procedures that can be found on the Internet.

Proactive citizens also can join organizations such as the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Citizen Corps and Amateur Radio Emergency Service.

MARITIME NOTE

A salvage company is being sought to recover a tanker truck and logging equipment that sank to the bottom of Robson Bight, off northern Vancouver Island, last August.

A tugboat was used to move a barge that overturned in Johnstone Strait last August.
(Coleen Johnson)

A barge carrying the truck and equipment capsized in Johnstone Strait, an ecological reserve for killer whales.

B.C. Environment Minister Barry Penner said his government is concerned that leaking fuel may pose a threat to orcas and other marine life.

Penner and Loyola Hearn, Federal Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, announced Friday that they have decided to attempt a recovery operation following months of debate over what to do about the wreckage.

Penner said the first priority is to go after the equipment that contains the most fuel.

The barge was pushed to shore by the tugboat near Beaver Cove.
(Coleen Johnson)

"That would be the fuel truck that had a tank that could hold up to 10,000 litres of diesel fuel," he said. "There's also a piece of equipment that we believe contains a significant amount of hydraulic fluid."

Penner said only a handful of companies in North America have the expertise to do the job.

The minister said the plan is to retrieve the equipment as quickly as possible, while minimizing From Holland and Knightthe impact on wildlife.

He said recent video footage of the sunken equipment shows it to be in decent shape.

Legal Notes From Holland and Knight

USCG – reminder to replace older EPIRBs

The US Coast Guard issued a press release reminding mariners that older model Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs) that broadcast on 121.5 MHz or 243 MHz will not be monitored by satellite as of February 1, 2009. Effective that date, the satellites will only monitor for radio beacons broadcasting on 406 MHz. Some of the newer EPIRBs are equipped with embedded GPS, which will automatically signal the location of the distress. (4/18/08).

RS

First international ship of the year arrives at Port of Indiana

First international ship of the year arrives at Port of Indiana

BY JOYCE RUSSELL
April 19, 2008

PORTAGE | The marine vessel Isa wound its way into the Port of Indiana-Burns Harbor on Friday morning heralding the start of the 2008 international shipping season.

The St. Lawrence Seaway-size vessel, built in Japan in 1999, brought 8,610 metric tons of steel coils that were loaded in Ijmuiden, Holland.

Crew members and seamen spent the late morning and afternoon unloading the coils to be received by Federal Marine Terminal. The ship was scheduled to depart Friday evening en route to Milwaukee to unload the remaining portion of its cargo, said Port Director Peter Laman.

Laman predicted a good shipping season this year due to strong steel production and tariffs being frozen on the St. Lawrence Seaway for the last three years. Last year, 98 vessels like the Isa docked at the port. That was a little lower than the two previous years, said Laman, which he said were record years for ships.

From April to December, the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Seaway offers a direct route for ships from world markets into America's heartland, said Indiana Port Commission spokesman Jody Peacock.

"Known as 'Highway H2O,' the seaway provides companies in and around Indiana with the cheapest, most efficient and environmentally friendly mode of shipping products," said Peacock, adding that one seaway ship can haul the same amount of cargo as 870 trucks.

Laman said the port has already seen several arrivals of lake vessels with minerals from other Great Lakes ports. They began arriving earlier this month, he said.

Laman said its always exciting when the first international ship arrives as it marks the jobs created for the local shipping industry and economic development in the area.

"The port provides tremendous logistical advantages for area companies and our labor force is second to none. These are the primary reasons this port handles more ocean-going cargo than any other U.S. port on the Great Lakes," said Laman, adding the port has handled more than $1.7 billion in steel shipments in the last four years.

WEATHER NOTE

From Storm Reports

April 10th, Cameron, Illinois Tornado Caught On Tape By Storm Chaser Joel Wright...




MARITIME NOTE

Well the shipping season is underway for the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway The link below will guide you to the Great Lakes Vessel Locator's (click vessel passage on the referring page). I have added these three new links to my site (on left). If you click on any ship on the Lakes and the Seaway you will get the ships last weather report as well as the ships last known position. Included is the Worldwide Ship Locator, which will report on the ships last know position, tides, weather and even reported waves heights. I have also added to the site the Worldwide Vessel Casualty Locator so that you can also track ship casualties.

Have A Blast!

Great Lakes & Seaway Shipping Online Vessel Locator




RS

Forecasters Implement New Hurricane-tracking Technique

Forecasters Implement New Hurricane-tracking Technique

ScienceDaily (Apr. 15, 2008) — A new technique that helps forecasters continuously monitor landfalling hurricanes, giving them frequent and detailed images of a storm's location, will be implemented this summer.

(Picture Left -VORTRAC will provide hurricane forecasters with detailed updates on hurricanes as storms approach land. (Credit: Michael Bell, NCAR)

The new system, developed by National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Washington, D.C., will be implemented at the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The technique, known as VORTRAC (Vortex Objective Radar Tracking and Circulation), was successfully tested by the hurricane center last year.

"VORTRAC is an excellent example of the application of basic research to help improve short-term hurricane warnings," says Steve Nelson, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

The system, which relies on existing Doppler radars along the U.S. coast, provides details on hurricane winds and central pressure every six minutes, indicating whether the storm is gathering strength in the final hours before reaching shore.

"We are very gratified by the decision of the National Hurricane Center to adopt this new now-casting tool," says NCAR scientist Wen-Chau Lee. "VORTRAC will enable hurricane specialists, for the first time, to continuously monitor the trend in central pressure as a dangerous storm nears land. With the help of VORTRAC, vulnerable communities can be better informed of sudden changes in hurricane intensity."

Lee, NRL's Paul Harasti, and NCAR's Michael Bell led the technique's development. Funding came from NSF and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

One of VORTRAC's strengths is that it can use radar data to calculate the barometric pressure at the center of a hurricane, a key measure of its intensity.

"VORTRAC allows us to take the wind measurements from the radar, turn the crank, and have a central pressure drop out of a calculation," says Colin McAdie, a meteorologist at NHC. "This will be a valuable addition to the tools available to the forecaster."

Rapidly intensifying storms can catch vulnerable coastal areas by surprise. Last year, Hurricane Humberto struck near Port Arthur, Texas, after unexpectedly strengthening from a tropical depression to a hurricane in less than 19 hours. In 2004, parts of Florida's southwest coast were caught unprepared when Hurricane Charley's top winds increased from 110 to 145 miles per hour in just six hours as the storm neared land.

Lee and his collaborators applied VORTRAC retroactively to the two hurricanes and found that the technique would have accurately tracked their quick bursts in intensity.

"VORTRAC has demonstrated that it can capture sudden intensity changes in potentially dangerous hurricanes in the critical time period when these storms are nearing land," Bell says.

VORTRAC uses the Doppler radar network established by NOAA in the 1990s.

About 20 of these radars are scattered along the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines from Texas to Maine. Each radar can measure winds blowing toward or away from it, but no single radar could provide an estimate of a hurricane's rotational winds and central pressure until now.

The VORTRAC team developed a series of mathematical formulas that combine data from a single radar near the center of a landfalling storm with general knowledge of Atlantic hurricane structure in order to map the approaching system's rotational winds. VORTRAC also infers the barometric pressure in the eye of the hurricane, a very reliable index of its strength.

"By merging several techniques, we can now provide a missing link in short-term hurricane prediction," Harasti says.

Forecasters using VORTRAC can update information about a hurricane each time a Doppler radar scans the storm, which can be as often as about every six minutes. Without such a technique, forecasters would need at least two coastal radars in close proximity to each other in order to obtain the same information. But most of the network's radars are too far apart to qualify.

Each radar can sample conditions out to about 120 miles. This means VORTRAC can track an incoming hurricane for at least several hours, and possibly even as long as a day or more, depending on the storm's speed, trajectory, and size.

To monitor the winds of a landfalling hurricane, forecasters now rely on aircraft to drop instrument packages into the storm that gather data on winds and pressure. But due to flight logistics, the aircraft can take readings no more than every few hours, which means that coastal communities may not be swiftly alerted to changes in approaching hurricanes.

VORTRAC may also help improve long-range hurricane forecasts by using data from airborne Doppler radars or spaceborne radars to produce detailed information about a hurricane that is far out to sea.

Forecasters could input the data to computer models to improve three- and five-day forecasts

WEATHER NOTE

EARTHQUAKE IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FELT ACROSS CHICAGOLAND

The U.S. Geological Survey reported that a magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred at approximately 437 AM CDT Friday morning in southeast Illinois. It was centered 7 miles east of West Salem Illinois. This is 41 miles north-northwest of Evansville Indiana and 128 miles east of St. Louis Missouri. The earthquake was felt across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana including at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Romeoville.

According to the USGS web site www.earthquake.usgs.gov this earthquake equalled the magnitude of the largest historical earthquake in that region, which damaged southern Illinois in 1968.

U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (24 hours): 303-273-8500

Changes to Local Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Chicago routinely issues a Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) daily at 430 AM and 430 PM Central Time. The HWO highlights any potentially hazardous weather that is anticipated over the next several days. It can be found at the NWS Chicago web page, http://weather.gov/chicago. From the main menu on the left, under “Current Hazards”, click on “Outlooks”. The top item on the Outlooks page is “Latest Local Hazardous Weather Outlook”.

Effective April 15, 2008 the HWO will be also updated at 1100 AM during the warm season from March through September 30. This will be mainly to enhance the forecast thunderstorm threat. When thunderstorms are forecast in the Day 1 period, the HWO will be enhanced with three sections;

1. The “WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED” section will list the hazards expected during the day one period, including the potential magnitude and coverage or probability of occurrence.

2. The “AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING” section will highlight the portions of the outlook that are expected to be impacted, as well as the time(s) that the hazards are expected to occur.

3. The “DISCUSSION” section will be used to briefly elaborate on the hazardous weather that is expected during the day one period. (Continued)

Maritime Note

Award flagged for Pasha Bulker rescuers

A helicopter team from the NSW Hunter region has been nominated for a bravery award for the rescue of 22 people from the stranded bulk carrier, the Pasha Bulker.

The federal government nominated the Westpac Rescue Helicopter Service (Hunter Region) for the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Award for Exceptional Bravery at Sea, Leader of the House Anthony Albanese said in a statement on Monday.

In gale force winds and heavy seas, the Pasha Bulker became stranded at Nobby's Beach off Newcastle in June last year.

The night-time helicopter rescue involved the winching of each crew member from the stranded ship in severe weather conditions, with all safely evacuated without injury, Mr Albanese said.

On board the helicopter were pilots Ian McFadden and Ian Osborne, and crew members Graham Nickisson, Peter Praniess, Glen Ramplin and Nathan Langham.

Each man "risked their own lives" during the operation, believed to be the largest-scale rescue from a bulk carrier in recent maritime history, Mr Albanese said.

Nominations for the bravery awards closed last Wednesday and winners will be judged by an international panel selected by the IMO.

Winners will be announced in September.

Kotuku was not seaworthy

Apr 18, 2008 7:04 AM

Accident investigators say the Kotuku which sank off Bluff two years ago with the loss of six lives should never have gone out to sea.

And they say the fact it had been given a safety clearance is a warning for hundreds of other similar vessels around the country.

The Transport Accident Investigation Commission report says those who died and their families have been failed by the maritime inspection system.

Hours into the Kotuku's voyage six people were dead and investigators say the boat was not seaworthy.

"Simply put, the Kotuku shouldn't have been issued with a Fit for Purpose Certificate," says Doug Monks, chief investigator.

When two big waves tipped over the Kotuku, the Topi family's kaumatua, Peter Topi, his daughter Tania and nine-year-old grandsons Shane topi-Tairi and sailor Trow Topi were all trapped inside.

The skipper's friend, Shorty Hayward, died in the water and deckhand Clinton Woods later succumbed to hypothermia.

After raising the wreckage, investigators found it should not have passed inspection because of the poor state of its hull, unknown stability capability and poor deck drainage.

"The vessel wasn't seaworthy and that was proven by the fact it was unable to negotiate its way out of the conditions," says Pauline Winter, Deputy Chief Commissioner.

But an angry skipper disagrees. John Edminson says the report is full of errors, he stands by his boat and is waiting to read the Maritime New Zealand report.

He has plenty of support in Bluff.

"It's rubbish. She a very good sea boat and she was very well maintained," says Alex Mullinder, Bluff resident.

"If it was a warrant of fitness for a car, and they got it wrong, heads would roll," says a local woman.

The wife of one of the passengers who died that day, Judy Hayward, says her husband would never have gone out on the muttonbirding trip if he thought the boat was unsafe.

Hayward says Edminson did all he could to support the survivors and her family will be always grateful to him for that.

Hayward says her husband had all the faith in the world in his friend and in the trip he was going on.

But the report says the Kotuku in fact was not approved for passengers. There weren't enough lifejackets onboard and the life raft was wedged in and didn't float free.

All these issues pointed to problems with the maritime inspections.

"The commission really hopes, the commission expects that future practice will change significantly. says Winter.

The commission says it's not about blame and is just trying to stop tragedies like this happening again.

Maritime safety investigator Tom Sawyer says the lessons learned from the tragedy should be a monument to the six people who died. He says the report into the sinking needs to be read by the right people and acted on.

Sawyer says the Kotuku should not have been given a fit for purpose certificate. But he says like people with a car, you trust the people who give you a warrant of fitness.

Professional Skipper magazine editor Keith Ingram says it really is up to the owners to ensure their boats are seaworthy. Ingram says the reality is that there are at least 200 boats in New Zealand waters that shouldn't be.

Maritime New Zealand, the organisation responsible for regulating the industry, says the commission's recommendations have been accepted and progress is well under way in implementing them.

Director Catherine Taylor says a number of factors combined to cause the accident and MNZ accepts that elements of the Safe Ship Management (SSM) system needed improving.

Introduced in 1996, SSM requires vessel owners to be responsible for the day-to-day safety of their vessels and covers all aspects of safety, including occupational safety and health systems, crew qualifications, hazard identification, condition of the vessel and its fitness for purpose.

Taylor says the vast majority of the 3200 vessels in its SSM system are operating safely and older commercial wooden vessels like Kotuku make up only a very small proportion of vessels in the system.

She says MNZ took immediate steps after the accident to ensure important safety messages arising out of it were communicated to others in the industry.

"MNZ issued safety bulletins about the importance of keeping vessel freeing ports clear to allow water to drain off the deck, and of ensuring that life raft cradles were properly fitted so that the life raft can release in the event of an emergency," she says.

"MNZ is also continuing to work closely with representatives from the Bluff fishing community and local Iwi prior to the muttonbird seasons to raise awareness of these issues and help foster a good safety culture."

From Holland and Knight

Caribbean Sea – tanker rescues mariners after sinking

The US Coast Guard issued a press release stating that a nearby tanker diverted to rescue the 11-man crew of a Korean freighter that sank in the Caribbean Sea. The freighter sank after its cargo shifted in a storm. (4/16/08).

Messing About In Ships podcast episode 19

April 17, 2008, 4:31 am
Filed under: podcast, shownotes

Episode 19 of Messing About In Ships has launched.

(49 minutes)

Download MP3: Messing About In Ships Episode 19 - April 17, 2008

Shownotes: coming soon

Finally... The Research Ship James Cook in a Atlantic storm!

Enjoy your weekend!

RS

Hurricane Watching on the Cheap

Hurricane Watching on the Cheap

By Phil Berardelli
ScienceNOW Daily News
15 April 2008

It might be much less adventurous than piloting an aircraft directly into the eye of a Category 5 hurricane, but researchers have found that simply listening to a storm using underwater microphones can provide much of the same information about its destructive power.

Over the past several decades, scientists have vastly improved their ability to track hurricanes and cyclones. The best tools are weather satellites, which photograph the storms from various Earth orbits, and so-called hurricane hunters, rugged research aircraft filled with iron-nerved crew members. Aircraft are particularly important, because they can provide precise information about the intensity of the storm, which satellites cannot. These details help officials in coastal areas make critical decisions about whether to order evacuations as the storms bear down. But flying the aircraft costs millions of dollars per year.

Now a team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge has developed what might become a bargain-basement way to stay on top of hurricane intensity. The solution is a Cold War leftover: sensitive hydrophones that can perceive underwater sounds--whether generated by enemy submarines or an approaching tempest.

"We had a couple of strokes of good luck," says ocean scientist Nicholas Makris of MIT's Laboratory for Undersea Remote Sensing. He and former graduate assistant Joshua Wilson ran across some acoustic data collected in 1999 by sensors in deep water along the mid-Atlantic ridge. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put them there to monitor seismic activity, but the sensors happened to record the noise of winds as Hurricane Gert passed overhead. Then, within a day, a NOAA aircraft flew into Gert's eye. "There was almost a perfect correlation" between the wind speeds interpreted from the hydrophone data and the speeds collected by the aircraft, says Makris, who, along with Wilson, will report the findings in an upcoming issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

The technology is so inexpensive that just about any nation can use it routinely, Makris says. At its simplest, it requires only a small plane to drop a submerged hydrophone array in the path of an approaching storm and then collect the data by retrieving the sensors. A more elaborate variation is to station a permanent array that is wired to the mainland along known hurricane paths. That is what Makris has been planning to do in cooperation with the Mexican navy. They have planted such sensors near Isla Socorro, off the country's west coast, which is reputed to experience more hurricanes than anywhere on Earth--although the region has been untouched now for months. "We're still waiting," Makris says.

The technique is a "novel and practical approach" to gauging hurricane intensity safely and cheaply, says applied physicist Jeffrey Simmen of the University of Washington, Seattle. Simmen, an underwater acoustics specialist, says he likes the idea that the sensing technique is "truly passive," using the noise generated by hurricanes to collect data. That makes it nondisruptive to whales and other sound-sensitive marine creatures, he says.

WEATHER NOTE

Canyoners on fatal trip missed severe weather warning

As Elim Christian College in Auckland grieves over the deaths of six students and a teacher in a flash flood in on Tuesday, questions have been asked about the response to a severe weather warning.

The students and teacher were on a canyoning trip run by the Sir Edmund Hillary Outdoor Pursuits Centre near the Tongariro National Park.

The centre says it did not receive a weather forecast predicting heavy rain.

However, the MetService says it issued a severe weather warning - the most serious caution possible - for the area at 8.30am on Tuesday, forecasting steady rain with sudden pockets of heavy downpours. MetService forecasting manager Peter Kreft says the warning contained an extra comment to watch for rapidly rising rivers.

The centre's chief executive, Grant Davidson, says a MetService fax at 6.15 that morning, which was used to brief staff, had no indication of heavy rain warnings. He says the issue surrounding the forecast will be investigated in a review of the tragedy.

Recovery of the victims

Five of the group, including an adult instructor, were rescued on Tuesday night. Four students and a teacher were found dead at the same time. Search teams later found the bodies of two other teenagers, at about 4am on Wednesday.

Police released the names of the victims on Wednesday. They were: Natasha Bray, of Pakuranga; Portia McPhail, of Manurewa; Huan (Tom) Hsu, of Farm Cove; Anthony Mulder, of Howick; Floyd Fernandez, of Howick; and Tara Gregory, of Mt Wellington. All were 16. The teacher was Anthony McLean, 29, of Howick.

The deaths have been referred to the Palmerston North Coroner for investigation.

School community mourns

Hundreds of supporters and mourners gathered on Wednesday at Auckland's Elim Christian College and special assemblies were held as the tragedy hit home.

Principal Murray Burton says the school has lost "a fine bunch of students". He says all had great leadership skills and their teacher was "an incredible person" who was in charge of redeveloping sports.

Prime Minister Helen Clark says the deaths are an unspeakable tragedy. She has pledged support from government agencies for the affected families and the school community, and is sending her condolences.

The Minister of Education Chris Carter visited the school on Wednesday, and says a trauma response team has been there since Tuesday night and extra staff will be provided if required. He would not be drawn on whether there will be an investigation by education authorities into health and safety issues around the adventure course.

Parliament passed a notice of motion expressing its deep sorrow at the deaths. The leaders of all political parties voiced their sympathy in Parliament for those affected by the tragedy.

Students wore lifejackets

The Outdoor Pursuits Centre's chief executive, Grant Davidson, says the wave of water that swept away the group was a freak occurrence. He says a young girl also died in the area after slipping under a log in the water in 1976.

Mr Davidson says the instructor leading the group had been working with the centre for several months and was fully qualified. He says the students were equipped and all were wearing wetsuits, lifejackets and helmets.

He says staff and the centre's trustees are devastated by the tragedy. The centre will investigate what happened and fully co-operate with all other investigations.

The Outdoor Instructors Association says the canyon where the group got into difficulty usually provides for a fairly straightforward trip. Chief executive Matthew Cant worked at the centre some years ago and says the Mangatepopo Gorge is relatively easy to navigate. He says the river is not a huge challenge to somebody who is well prepared and is being led.

Mr Cant says the centre has been conducting the Upstream Gorge trip for 36 years, giving tens of thousands of young people a "terrific" experience.

Ruapehu police district commander Steve Mastrovich says it appears the group was simply caught in the wrong place at the wrong time. "This is an alpine environment, so weather and other conditions are subject to pretty rapid change. This tragedy is completely unusual."

MARITIME NOTE

From gCaptain: What Went Wrong Aboard the MV Pasha Bulker?

While we're on the subject of management lessons, Master Mariner John Konrad, our esteemed colleague over at gCaptain, has some harsh words to say about the captain of the MV Pasha Bulker, a 225 meter bulk cargo ship that ran agound on Nobby's Beach in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia last summer when the area was hit by a major storm that generated gale force winds and extremely high seas.

There were 56 ships moored at Newcastle when the storm warning was issued by local authorities, and all but 10 of them sailed far offshore to avoid the heavy weather. The captain of the Pasha Bulker decided to stay, but when the huge storm finally struck, he then tried desperately to head out to sea — but it was too late. The ship ran aground at 9:15 am on a public beach not far from downtown Newcastle, and shortly thereafter it "hogged" — meaning, the spine of the ship cracked under the stress of the crashing waves. How embarrassing.

The ship was eventually refloated and salvaged, but not before it provided a bonanza for dozens of Australian Flickr photographers. Now a formal investigation of the incident is underway, and the judgment of the Pasha Bulker's captain has been called into question. Indeed, though gCaptain's MM Konrad is normally quite mild-mannered, as an expert mariner himself, the reports prompted him to issue some stern words about the management decisions that were made aboard the Pasha Bulker. Regarding the decision not to head out to sea, MM Konrad says:

46 ships decide to leave port to avoid dragging anchor in an unprotected harbor and the Pasha Bulker stays, while this action is questionable the decision is not necessarily breaking the rule of prudent seamanship. The next morning Port Authorities “try again” to evict the remaining ships. I do not have details on the warning but it’s normal procedure to give the availability of tug boats that could help a ship in danger. Either way rescue tugs never showed and were apparently not requested by the captain.

At this point in the time line the captain became a danger to the vessel and crew. A master’s disagreement with port authority suggestions is understandable and the choice to ignore the warnings are his prerogative but one necessary step was not taken; vigilance. This is the time for a captain to ask himself the questions mentioned above, this is the moment to question your own decision, this is your chance to solidify a bridge team management plan and put the crew on high alert.

The chronology from here was a comedy of errors, but the the Pasha Bulker soon ran aground, and when it did, the captain ordered his crew to abandon ship even though the engines were still sound and the ship was resting securely on the beach. To which MM Konrad says:

Panic is the number enemy number one in an emergency situation. While some have more difficulty than others avoiding it a captain should never panic. This is a primary reason it takes 10 years of sailing experience and school to obtain a master’s license. In these 10 years you will be exposed to situations at sea that test your panic trigger, if you are unacceptable to panic or indecision at the time if crisis you should not take command of a ship. Many mariners face difficulty getting promoted to second mate for this very reason, as this officer position is the highest pay grade obtainable without the need for making life threatening decisions in the face of danger. I have met few captains to which the Peter Principal applies.

RS

'Well Above-average' Hurricane Season Forecast For 2008

'Well Above-average' Hurricane Season Forecast For 2008

ScienceDaily (Apr. 10, 2008) — The Colorado State University forecast team upgraded its early season forecast today from the Bahamas Weather Conference, saying the U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a well above-average hurricane season.

"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said William Gray, who is beginning his 25th year forecasting hurricanes at Colorado State University.

The team's forecast now anticipates 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those eight, four are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team. "We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."

Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic - prevalent in most years since 1995 - is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2008 because of a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Also, the currently observed weak Azores High will likely promote weaker-than-normal trade winds over the next few months enhancing warm SST anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.

Additionally, the team expects neutral or weak La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, which, combined with a predicted warm north and tropical Atlantic, is a recipe for enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity. These factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1950, 1989, 1999, and 2000 seasons. The average of these four seasons had well above-average activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2008 season will have activity in line with the average of these four years.

The hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2008 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275 percent of the average season.

The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:

• A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).
• A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)
• A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The team also predicted above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

"The United States was quite fortunate over the last two years in that we had only one hurricane landfall (Humberto - 2007)," Klotzbach said. "None of the four major hurricanes that formed in 2006 and 2007 made U.S. landfall."

The Colorado State hurricane forecast team has cautioned against reading too much into the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 when Florida and the Gulf Coast were ravaged by four landfalling hurricanes each year. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne caused devastating damage in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.

"The activity of these two years was unusual, but within the natural bounds of hurricane variation," Gray said.

Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for 11 regions, 55 sub-regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. The Web site, available to the public at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane, is the first publicly accessible Internet tool that adjusts landfall probabilities for regions, sub-regions and counties based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts.

The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.

The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1. The August, September and October forecasts will include separate forecasts for each of those months.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2008

(1950-2000 Averages in parenthesis)

• Named Storms 15 (9.6)*
• Named Storm Days 80 (49.1)
• Hurricanes 8 (5.9)
• Hurricane Days 40 (24.5)
• Intense Hurricanes 4 (2.3)
• Intense Hurricane Days 9 (5.0)
• Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 160 (100%)

* Numbers in ( ) represent average year totals based on 1950-2000 data.

The entire report is available on the Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu.

Adapted from materials provided by Colorado State University.

MARITIME NOTE

MSC Napoli is dismantled piece by piece

Part of the wreckage of the container ship Napoli has been stripped apart in a dockyard 15 months after it was grounded along the Jurassic coast.

	In pictures: MSC Napoli is dismantled

Contractors used cutting charges to remove the propeller and rudder and to sever the main drive shaft of the ship, which is stranded off the coast of Branscombe, east Devon. Explosives are also being used to dismantle the vessel so that it can be taken to land by barge and recycled.

The Maritime and Coastguard Agency said that contingency plans were in place to minimise any environmental impact that the operation may have.

Contractors say the operation will take about five months and is the final part of a multi-million-pound salvage project. After the stern is taken from the seabed, underwater surveys of the site will be carried out to ensure that all the debris is removed.

The front section is being cut apart at the Harland and Wolff shipyard in Belfast after being towed there last August. The Napoli started breaking up in bad weather in the Channel in January 2007 and was deliberately beached because it was feared that it would break up and sink. Some of its containers washed ashore and were looted.

MW motorcycles were among items taken before police moved in to close the beach.

Salvage Law and Practice Seminar
Thursday 19th - Friday 20th June 2008
Lloyd's Maritime Academy Training Suite, London

To download the brochure, click here.

Lloyd’s Maritime Academy is delighted to announce details of the Salvage Law and Practice seminar. This popular and comprehensive two day seminar will provide you with the opportunity to examine some of the most important and complex topics relating to international salvage law and salvage awards.

Whether you are an established player or new to the salvage & wreck removal arena, this seminar is an essential date for your professional diary giving you the opportunity to examine some of the most important and complex topics relating to international salvage law and salvage awards.

The programme has been specifically designed to include case studies and practical sessions, enabling you to gain a first hand understanding of the subject area.

RS

How to Read Sea Surface Temperature Images

How to Read Sea Surface Temperature Images

Now we're going to give you all the information you need to know to become an expert at reading these images.

There are 3 simple steps:

1. Image Navigation,
2. Is that a cloud?
3. How do I find favorable currents?

1) Navigation - One of the most important things to remember in life is not to believe everything you read. Well, with satellite images, you shouldn't believe everything you see. The satellites are 500 miles up in space and moving at speeds of around 20,000 mph. Because of this excessive speed and some tilt and roll in the satellite, the image isn't exactly in the right spot most of the time. How will you know that? You must look at the image very carefully.

This SST image is not quite right. If you look at arrow A, you will see the coastline in the Cape May area. Now look carefully at the image itself. Notice that the deep red pattern is the same shape as the coast, but doesn't match up. This deep red area (hot temperature) is land. You can see that the coastline near point B should be matched up with the image near point C.

Now let's move the coastline to the correct spot.

Now you can see what it should look like. Notice that when we move the coast, the Latitude/longitude grid also moves. As a web site user, you can't move the coast, but you can now estimate how much error there is in the image navigation when planning your boat trip.

A good thing to note: Land appears much warmer than the coastal water in this image because the satellite pass was taken on a hot summer afternoon. Land heats up a great deal on a hot day while water does not. Just think about when you walk across a beach on a hot day. The sand can burn your feet, but when you run down to the water, it's about the same temperature all day long. The opposite is true with night time images. Land can get very cool at night, while the ocean water will not change more than 4 or 5 degrees over a day.

These two images are a good example of this diurnal (night/day) heat difference.

2) Is that a cloud? - As I've already said, the satellites are 500 miles up in space. These satellites cannot see through clouds, so when there is a cloud above the earth, the satellite sees the temperature of the cloud and not the earth below it. Clouds are high up in the sky and are almost always cooler than the earth below. The farther you go up in altitude, the cooler it gets. Just ask a mountain climber.

So, knowing that clouds are cool, look at the image to the left. The areas marked a, b, and c are definitely clouds. They are so cold, they are off the temperature scale (white). Meanwhile, all of the ocean around them is green and yellow. Unless something very strange is going on, white areas in our imagery are RARELY water.

There is one other way of identifying a cloud. Clouds move rapidly over the earth at speeds between 15 to 50 mph. Water currents move at only 2-3 mph. So, the temperature patterns in the ocean should not change quickly. If you can compare two images that are less than 24 hours apart, you will know if a pattern is a cloud because it will not be in one of the two images. For example, look at these two images, specifically the areas marked D and E. In image 1, there is a cloud there (blue/purple), while in image 2 it has moved off to the east (marked cloud).

THE TEMPERATURE EXCEPTION - Upwelling - Sometimes during the summer, water from the ocean floor rises quickly from the bottom and can cool water temperatures 15 degrees in one day. These two images (area B) show one such upwelling event. They are only 20 hours apart, but the coastal water temperature dropped 10 degrees. In our area, these upwellings only occur along the coast. Find out more on Upwelling.

3) How do I find favorable currents? - If you are going out on the ocean in a sailboat, then you may know plenty about navigating coastal and deep water currents to your advantage. If not, think about it this way… If you were riding a bike down the street, would you get to your destination faster with the wind gusting in your face or at you back? We are going to do all we can to teach you how to keep that wind (currents) at your back so you can save time, money and boat fuel. It's a practical advantage, isn't it? So let's get to it.

Now, for the currents in shallow water, or water less than 600 feet (the depth of the continental shelf edge), we suggest you go to our CODAR Coastal Radar tutorial. Here we are going to give you a brief introduction on how to read a satellite image and determine the surface currents in deep water (i.e. waters more than 600 feet deep).

The image above is a simple view of the waters off of the Northeast US, showing the major current in the area known as the Gulf Stream (the red snakelike line in the picture). Here, the arrows indicate the direction of ocean currents. The Gulf Stream moves generally from west to east at about 4 knots. It contains areas called meander troughs, where it moves to the south and back to the north, and meander troughs which first move north, then back to the south again. If the trough gets too deep, it collapses and breaks off from the stream becoming a cold ring. If a crest gets too high, it too collapses and becomes a warm ring. Below is an animation showing how this happens. Warm rings (north of the Stream) rotate clockwise at about 2-3 knots while cold rings rotate counter clockwise at about 2-3 knots.

The final image is a piece of a surface temperature satellite image from our web site. We have overlaid arrows and text explaining the current speeds and directions. There are two additional features here. One is a frontal eddy, which is north of the stream and rotates counter clockwise. These small eddies stay attached to the northern edge of the stream and generally rotate at about 1 knot. The other is the arrow showing the counter current just north of the continental shelf edge (black line). This is the typical direction of surface current flow along the northern edge of the continental shelf.

All of our Sea Surface Temperature (SST) images come from NOAA/AVHRR satellites, which you can learn more about.

Maritime Notes

UK. Ro-Ro ferry Riverdance to be dismantled on Blackpool beach

Thursday, 10 April 2008

After a lengthy evaluation process, the owner of the Riverdance ferry, now lying on Blackpool beach, has produced plans to dismantle the ship in situ on the grounds that this represents the best option available in the interests of safety and protecting the environment. Hugh Shaw, the Secretary of State's Representative for Maritime Salvage and Intervention (SOSREP), has been involved throughout and has informed the owner that he has no objection to the plans. Weather permitting, it is estimated that the project will take approximately 12-14 weeks. Options examined ranged from righting the vessel (known as par-buckling), cutting up in situ or a combination of both. The preferred method will involve cargo, trailer and machinery removal, including any debris and any pollutants, whilst maintaining the integrity of the hull. The vessel will be stripped down internally until only the shell remains. The hull will then be cut into manageable pieces and transported for recycling. The Environment Group have been advised as well as Defra, the Environment Agency, the Marine and Fisheries Agency and Natural England. All parties (including Defra, the Environment Agency, the Environment Group, the Marine and Fisheries Agency and Natural England) recognise that, due to the uncertainty and technical difficulties of righting the vessel, cutting up in situ is now the best option. Until the new contract for demolition is awarded, SMIT Salvage remain on contract to carry out caretaking duties only. Hugh Shaw said : "I look forward to being able to brief officers and elected members of the local authorities to explain how and why the forthcoming works will be carried out. I also look forward to working closely with all interested organisations such as the police and local transport services to ensure that minimum disruption is caused to residents and local people." The original plan to reduce the list using tidal and internal buoyancy was abandoned due to the additional structural damage sustained during storms on 12 March. The vessel remains lying on the beach with a list of 100 + degrees. In addition the vessel continues to sink deeper into the sand. It is estimated that at least 4 metres of the bridge / wheelhouse is now under the sand. On Thursday 31 January 2008, the vessel's crew, on passage from Warren Point to Heysham, reported that she had developed a 40 degree list and was drifting towards the Lancashire coast. The vessel subsequently grounded at Cleveleys Beach, North Shore, Blackpool.

RS

Atlantic water temperatures climbing, storm experts warn

Atlantic water temperatures climbing, storm experts warn

By NEIL JOHNSON THE TAMPA TRIBUNE

April 5, 2008

ORLANDO — There is good news and bad news on the hurricane front: Water in the Pacific could be shifting to create less-hospitable conditions for the storms to form, but things in the Atlantic seem to be perking up.

Cool water in the Pacific Ocean seems to be warming slightly, though La Niña is expected to linger through the spring. This weather pattern's disappearance would make it harder for storms to form.

The water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is also warming, however, and other conditions are in place in the Atlantic to keep water temperatures rising. That is good for hurricanes.

That is the assessment of Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University, speaking at Friday's closing session of the National Hurricane Conference.

Klotzbach is assuming much of the forecasting work done until now by William Gray, the Colorado State professor who has issued forecasts of hurricane seasons since 1984. The pair's next forecast will come Wednesday at a hurricane conference in the Bahamas.

Their last forecast in December called for 13 named storms and seven to become hurricanes. Three of those are expected to grow to storms of Category 3 or larger. That is slightly above the long-term average for a season.

It does not appear that the numbers will go down in the new forecast, said Gray, who also spoke at the conference's closing session.

Gray said active seasons are likely to be with us in coming years.

"We have this multi-decadal cycle that's bringing many more storms to the Atlantic, particularly category 3, 4 and 5 storms," Gray said.

Hurricane frequency in the Atlantic swings from calm to active over periods that last 20 to 25 years. The Atlantic entered an active phase in 1995.

Much of the swing in activity depends on ocean circulation driven by changes in salinity, Gray said.

While one part of the globe may be drifting into neutral conditions for hurricanes, neither aiding their formation nor hindering them, the opposite side of the world is starting to favor hurricanes.

La Niña, when water in the tropical Pacific cools below normal, is still in place though weakening slightly, according to the Climate Prediction Center. It may wane by the end of spring. Forecast models are split on whether it will stay through summer.

Klotzbach said spring is a difficult time for forecasters to predict what La Niña will do in the summer. The cool water of La Niña weakens the jet stream that blows from the west, seven miles above the earth. The weaker jet stream means those winds that normally can inhibit hurricane growth are not in place, and it is easier for storms to form.

Even if La Niña weakens and the Pacific returns to neutral conditions, water temperatures in the eastern Atlantic have risen in the past few months, Klotzbach said. Also, trade winds moving from the east have diminished, and air pressures have dropped.

"Traditionally, when you see that warming, especially in the eastern Atlantic, you see more hurricane activity," Klotzbach said.

He said water temperatures in the Atlantic were lower in 2007, one reason many of the storms that formed did not become too powerful.

WEATHER NOTE

Preparing for the next storm: Tips on readying for disaster

By the Daily News

A family preparedness plan needs to be in place for all hazards, natural or manmade, and should contain a kit to sustain a family for 72 hours.

Ronnie Pearson, director of Warren County Emergency Management Services, said if a disaster is severe enough, it could take that long for emergency service personnel to reach someone.

That’s why it’s also a good idea for residents to become involved in a Community Emergency Response Team that provides training on how to use a fire extinguisher, basic first aid and light extrication, Pearson said.

Kits should contain food and water - one gallon of water per person per day - canned staple foods, a first aid kit, a battery-powered AM/FM radio and any type of important medical documentation.

“They also need to have drills similar to fire drills so that everyone knows where to go in the case of an emergency so everyone can be accounted for,” Pearson said.

“And everyone should have a NOAA weather radio,” he said.

Those radios can be purchased at just about any discount store or electronics store for as little as $29.99. Those with SAME technology will allow owners to go the NOAA Web site and program in the codes for the counties which they wish to be alerted about. Those without SAME technology will probably alert for a 14 or so county area, Pearson said.

Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services has several online publications that can help families in formulating their plans, he said. The state Department of Homeland Security also offers tips.

The cabinet also recommends having the following items prepared:

Clothing, blankets and sleeping bags

Battery-powered flashlight with extra batteries

Candles and matches

Sanitation supplies, including iodine tablets and bleach to disinfect water

Toilet articles and special needs items for infants, older adults or disabled family members

Extra sets of car keys and eyeglasses

If you have a car, try to keep at least 1/2 tank of gas in it at all times

Important family documents in a waterproof container

For more information, visit chfs.ky.gov/dph/epi/ preparedness/WhatYouCanDo ToBePrepared.htm or homeland security.ky.gov/. For information about weather radios, go to www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/nwr rcvr.htm.

RS