Winter Weather Research at the National Severe Storms Laboratory

Improving understanding and forecasts of hazardous winter storms

NSSL (NOAA Severe Storm Laboratory) is about more than just tornadoes and thunderstorms--we are also a focal point for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research on hazardous winter weather.

In addition to conducting research on convective storms, NSSL scientists study blizzards, freezing precipitation, and heavy snow. Radar research and development efforts also are being conducted to improve the discrimination of rain from snow, the quantitative measurements of snowfall, and the small-scale structure of winter-weather system

The Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX)

IPEX is a research program designed to improve the understanding, analysis, and prediction of precipitation and precipitation processes in the mountains of the western United States. Over 30 scientists from NOAA and the Universities of Utah, Oklahoma, and Nevada collected data in February 2000 using research aircraft, mobile radars, and weather balloons. Analysis and interpretation of this data will allow project scientists to examine the factors controlling the distribution and intensity of snow across narrow, steeply sloped mountain ranges like the Wasatch Mountains.

PAYOFF: The knowledge gained through analysis of IPEX datasets conducted by NSSL scientists will lead to better forecasts of deadly winter storms in the western United States

MORE INFORMATION:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/teams/ipex/

Precipitation Type

Predicting the type of precipitation (rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet) can be a difficult forecast challenge. A first step in such predictions is understanding the climatological distribution of precipitation type. NSSL scientists are working with collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Environment Canada, and the University of Oklahoma to compile such information for North America. The next step to improve forecasts is to develop algorithms for the prediction of precipitation type. The goal of the Precipitation-Type Algorithm Experiment (PTAX) is to determine the quality of existing algorithms and investigate ways to display the results using probabilities. Other research at NSSL showed the importance of falling snow melting aloft to changing the precipitation type observed at the surface.

PAYOFF: Better information will help forecasters provide more accurate warnings for freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

MORE INFORMATION: http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~cortinas/preprints/avi09/9aviation.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ptax/

Winter Lightning

Lightning is not restricted to summertime thunderstorms--sometimes snowstorms can produce lightning as well. NSSL scientists have produced maps of wintertime thunderstorms across the United States that show these storms occur most frequently in the Great Plains. Another study provides guidance for forecasters in Buffalo and Salt Lake City for determining the occurrence of lightning associated with lake-effect snowstorms in their localities. Finally, during IPEX, NSSL scientists and their collaborators obtained the first measurements of the electric field inside winter storms over the United States.

PAYOFF: This research will improve the fundamental understanding of conditions that cause wintertime lightning.

MORE INFORMATION:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/mag/network.shtml

Banded Precipitation Studies

When precipitation appears as organized bands on radar, accumulation at the surface can be extreme. Researchers are looking at conditional symmetric instability and frontogenesis as predictors of banded precipitation. Other studies have shown that small-scale circulations in winter precipitation can sometimes be similar to supercell thunderstorms.

PAYOFF: Studies of banded precipitation ultimately result in better mesoscale forecasts, traveler's advisories, and other detailed forecast products used by schools, businesses, transportation systems and local governments.

MORE INFORMATION: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/csi/

Improving WSR-88D Snowfall Estimates

Data from IPEX and previous winter storm studies in the mountains of northern Utah are being used to calibrate the nearby WSR-88D. A special network of snow gauges provides snow water equivalent measurements that are used to determine correction factors for remote radar precipitation estimates.

PAYOFF: More accurate radar precipitation estimates provide forecasters with better real-time water-equivalent snowfall rates. In addition, hydrologists and water managers (e.g., reservoir operators) have more accurate knowledge of potential snow melt run-off.

Shelf Ice

These pix's were taken at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore Park. Shelf Ice is a beautiful thing but extremely dangerous because of its stability or lack thereof. How a look of beauty can be so very deceiving.

TWISTER NEWS -
March 1st is here! The Chase begins!

FEMA specialists offer help to rebuild more safely after tornadoes
The Jackson Sun

FEMA hazard mitigation specialists will be at local building supply stores today through Saturday with information to help residents rebuild more safely and stronger following the severe weather of Feb. 5. (Story)

Survey Teams Confirm 3 Tornadoes in Tuesday Storms

Survey crews confirmed three tornadoes touched down early Tuesday. All were classified as E-F-One.

Tornadoes and straight line winds were blamed for causing thousands of dollars in damages in Leeds, the Pell City/Cropwell areas, Highland Lakes in northern Shelby County, northeast Talladega County and southern Calhoun County.

In Leeds, an elderly woman was killed when a tree fell on a mobile home.

Meteorologists said aerial and ground surveys determined that dozens of homes and businesses in the affected counties suffered minor to major damage.

An E-F-One tornado can generate wind speeds of between 86 to 110 miles per hour.

Forecasters say no severe weather is expected for the remainder of the week.

Houston EMA Chief Questions Siren Use
By: Lorra Lynch

Perry's fire chief turned on the tornado sirens during Tuesday's threat of severe thunderstorms. The sirens caused many people to believe there was a tornado warning.

Houston County EMA Director Jimmy Williams says he's concerned about the decision to activate sirens in Perry during Tuesday's severe weather.

Williams says Chief Joel Gray's decision to turn on the sirens to alert people about the threat of severe thunderstorms instead of tornados caused a flood of calls to the E-911 center. He called the volume of calls "very disruptive."

Chief Gray said he activates the sirens during any severe weather or homeland security threat. He said he's going by FEMA guidelines, and plans to stick with the policy until he's told to do otherwise by city management.

Williams met with Houston County Commission Chair Ned Sanders about the issue Wednesday morning. He says they plan to schedule meetings on the use of the sirens as soon as possible.

The City of Perry and Robins Air Force Base are the only areas in Houston County with access to tornado sirens.

MARITIME NOTES

UK. RNLI heroes & Coast Guard heroes honoured for MV Ice Prince rescue, read the dramatic story

The Coxswain of the Torbay RNLI lifeboat, Mark Criddle, is to be honoured by the Royal National Lifeboat Institution as the charity awards him the Silver Medal for Gallantry, recognising him for his leadership and outstanding seamanship during the rescue of eight seamen from the stricken merchant vessel Ice Prince on the night of 13 January 2008.

Coxswain Criddle’s volunteer crew on that night – Deputy Second Coxswain Roger Good, Deputy Second Coxswain John Ashford, Mechanic Mathew Tyler, Second Mechanic Nigel Coulton and Crew Members Darryll Farley and Alex Rowe – have also be recognised for their bravery and will each receive the Thanks of the Institution inscribed on Vellum. Ice Prince with 20 crew on board was on passage 34 miles south east of Berry Head, Devon when severe gale force 9 winds and rough seas shifted its cargo of timber causing the vessel to list 25 degrees to port. (Story)

Riverdance ferry "can be righted"
By Lisa Ettridger

BAD weather is continuing to takes its toll on the stricken ferry Riverdance – but rumours that the ship will have to be broken up and removed have been dismissed.

Officials from the Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) say a 40ft diameter box which provided accommodation for drivers will be dug up from the sands at Cleveleys after falling into the sea in bad weather earlier this week.

"It's part of the accommodation, where the lorry drivers would sit to have a cup of tea," said Richard Skeats of the MCA.

Messing About In Ships Podcast #12 - Special Interview of US Coast Guard Rescue of Sailors Aboard the Yacht Sean Seymour II

February 25, 2008, 4:33 am
Filed under: podcast, shownotes

Speaking of "winter weather"... Have a great weekend!
RS

New Radar Technology Can Increase Tornado Warning Lead Times

Navy's phased array radar being adapted for weather use

A National Weather Radar Testbed has been established at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Severe Storms Laboratory to provide the meteorological research community with the first surveillance phased array radar facility available on a full-time basis.

Norman is already known as a national center for weather radar research and development. NSSL's research in Doppler radar led to one of the most successful and significant technology advancements since the launching of the first weather satellite.

Nearly 30 years ago, NSSL was a major participant in the development of Doppler technology that became the heart of the WSR-88D radar, or NEXRAD.

The deployment of a system of 120 NEXRAD radars across the United States was the cornerstone of the modernization of the National Weather Service.

Installation of the SPY-1A antenna and radome on the NWRT

Phased array radar is currently used on Navy ships to support tactical operations.

Phased array radar technology may help forecasters of the future provide earlier warnings for tornadoes and other types of severe and hazardous weather. Researchers are adapting the SPY-1 radar technology, developed by Lockheed Martin to support tactical operations aboard Navy ships, to weather detection. The phased array radar project has begun a new stage in NSSL's leadership in the research and development of future generations of weather radar.

Research Partnerships

A unique federal, private, state and academic partnership is developing the phased array radar technology. Participants include NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory and National Weather Service Radar Operations Center, Lockheed Martin, U.S. Navy, University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology and School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education, the Federal Aviation Administration, and Basic Commerce and Industries. The project - from research and development to technology transfer and deployment throughout the U.S. - is expected to take 10 to 15 years at an initial cost of approximately $25 million for the facility in Norman.

Promising New Radar Technology

Early tests of the phased array radar system show that the technology has the potential to vastly improve upon the capabilities of the national NEXRAD radar network for all weather radar applications. Using multiple beams and frequencies, phased array radar reduces the scan time of weather from five or six minutes for NEXRAD radar to less than one minute, producing fast updates of weather data.

The National Weather Radar Testbed allows NSSL and other meteorologists to determine if phased array radar will become the next significant technology advancement to improve our nation's weather services.

The rapid scanning ability of phased array radar gives it the potential to be a multi-use, adaptively scanning radar.

Improved Warning Lead Time

In addition to faster updates, the new system can scan the atmosphere with more detail at lower elevations than current radar allows. It can also re-scan areas of severe weather very quickly, potentially increasing forecasters' warning lead times as storms rapidly transition to severe modes.

PAYOFF: This technology has the potential to increase the average lead time for tornado warnings well beyond the current average of 11 minutes. Other technology being developed at NSSL will extend lead times even farther.

Improved Understanding and Forecasts

The new technology will gather storm information not currently available, such as rapid changes in wind fields, to provide more thorough understanding of storm evolution. Researchers and forecasters can then improve conceptual storm models and use that knowledge to evaluate and improve stormscale computer models. The data will also be used to initialize computer models and improve forecasts.

PAYOFF: Phased array technology will increase fundamental understanding of storm evolution, in turn leading to improved computer models, more accurate forecasts and earlier warnings.

Reflectivity and velocity displays of the first tornadic storm captured with the NWRT

NSSL RADAR RESEARCH

WSR-88D Improvements

• Faster and better signal processing will extend the usefulness of the current National Weather Service radar network.
  • Techniques to improve signal processing

• Adding dual-polarization capability to the WSR-88D radar network will improve precipitation discrimination and estimation and improve hazardous weather detection, extending the functionality of the current NEXRAD system.
  • Dual-polarized radar overview
  • Polarimetric radar applications
  • Winter Hydrometeor Classification Ground Truth Program

• Implementing range and velocity ambiguity mitigation techniques in the WSR-88D radar network will result in an improved ability for the WSR-88D to detect severe weather, flash floods, winter storms, and provide aviation forecasts.
  • Mitigation of range and velocity ambiguities

• An increased ability to identify aviation weather hazards and to track, classify and identify aircraft will improve airline safety and help fill gaps in homeland security.
  • FAA warning applications

Phased Array Radar

• Phased array technology could significantly extend warning lead times, increase accuracy, and reduce the uncertainty of predicting severe weather events.
  • Phased Array Radar
• Adapting phased array technology to both weather observation and aircraft surveillance will provide significant cost benefits and a higher level of security to the nation
  • Multi-function Phased Array Radar (MPAR)

Real-time Applications

• Researching and prototyping new severe weather warning applications using WDSS-II multi-sensor technology will help fast-track improvements into operations and provide a robust decision support system for forecasters.
  • WDSS-II

Testbeds

• The National Weather Radar Testbed at NSSL will shorten the cycle time from weather radar research to National Weather Service operations, leading to increased accuracy and lead-times, and reducing the uncertainty of predicting severe weather events.
  • National Weather Radar Testbed
• A cost-effective network of many small radars that can scan lower regions of the atmosphere will provide better weather coverage in high population or weather-sensitive areas.
  • CASA (Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere)

Mobile Doppler Radars

• Mobile radars can operate in the near-storm environment to provide scientists with data that corroborates their research.
  • SMART-R C-band and dual-pol X-band radar

NSSL PODCAST - Radar Research

National Severe Storms Laboratory Chief of Radar Research and Development Doug Forsyth discusses aspects of radar research and what’s in store for the next generation of weather radar. Recorded 8 November 2007

• Section 1 - Types of radar research done at NSSL (5:43)
• Section 2 - Transition of research to operations for new radar applications (3:11)
• Section 3 - Doppler radar and new radar technologies being researched and how they compare (8:39)
• Section 4 - Advantages of collaborative radar research (3:24)
• Section 5 - Doug discusses his career and his advice for people considering a career in the atmospheric sciences (6:09)

LISTEN TO THE COMPLETE PODCAST RUNTIME 27:08 TEXT TRANSCRIPT

BE READY CAMPAIGN

Tennessee Severe Weather Awareness Week: Feb. 24-29

The National Weather Service, the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency and other supporting organizations are working together to help in providing the public with information about severe weather safety. Advance planning and increased awareness will help Tennesseans survive these deadly storms. Governor Phil Bredesen has proclaimed February 24-29, 2008, as "Severe Weather Awareness Week" in Tennessee.As we move into our Spring, now is the time to prepare ourselves for the hazards and dangers associated with severe weather. Severe weather can and does occur any time of the day and anytime during the year. Are you prepared?

Click on the link to download the booklet. Severe Weather Awareness Week Booklet 2008

MS Severe Weather Awareness Week

Sunday, Feb 24, 2008 - 10:30 PM

By AnneMarie Crumby

E-mail

Governor Haley Barbour declares this week Severe Weather Awareness Week in Mississippi. The National Weather Service will issue a statewide test tornado warning on NOAA Weather Radios Wednesday morning.Schools, government agencies and businesses throughout the state are encouraged to participate in a tornado drill. Everyone is asked to buy a NOAA Weather Radio. It sounds an alarm when local severe weather watches and warnings are issued. These radios range in price from $30 to $70.

Emergency Management Looking for Severe Weather Spotters

Towson, Md. (February 7, 2008) – Local weather buffs have an opportunity to put their interest in meteorology to valuable practical use.

The Baltimore County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management is recruiting volunteers to help spot severe weather. The volunteers would be part of SKYWARN, a national network of amateur severe weather spotters, trained by the National Weather Service to spot severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail and flooding, snowfall and ice accumulation.

Along with the National Weather Service, the Office of Emergency Management will sponsor a SKYWARN and Spotter Class on Tuesday, March 11, 2008, 7 to 10 p.m., at the Baltimore County Public Safety Building, 700 E. Joppa Rd., Towson. The class will be held in the 6^th floor conference room.

The class is free of charge

To register, email tbrush@baltimorecountymd.gov, or call the Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management at 410-887-5996.

INTERNATIONAL WEATHER
By Arthur Rabjohn CEM

ENGLAND: Council flood funding payments exceed £15million Floods Recovery Minister John Healey today announced over £2.5million funding for six authorities across the country, to help them get back on their feet following last summer's floods. This means that over £15million has now been paid out under the Bellwin scheme, which covers costs incurred by local authorities during immediate action to safeguard residents and property or prevent suffering as a result of a disaster or emergency. This money is on top of up to £63million of other Government support made available to help flood-hit communities. FULL ITEM AT: http://www.communities.gov.uk/news/corporate/703254?version=1

USA: Night of Texas Wild Fires followed by fog chaos. Closure of Houston Hobby Airport led to major disruption as a result of dense fog. Planes were diverted to other airports, mainly DFW, and passengers sat on the tarmac for over two hours in some cases. Following a night of wildfires was there a connection?

NAMIBIA: Emergency Management Gets Blasting Omusati Governor Sackey Kayone has criticised the Regional Emergency Management Unit (REMU) for lack of means to respond to emergency situations. In a speech delivered on his behalf by Outapi Councillor Simon Shileka, he expressed reservations with the way finance is centralized at the expense of regional emergency units. MORE AT: http://allafrica.com/stories/200802251264.html

INDONESIA: A powerful earthquake hit off the coast of Indonesia's Sumatra island. The quake was centered about 160km south-southwest of Padang and had a magnitude of 7.3, and occurred at about 10km beneath the seabed. There are no reports of casualties or damage. A local tsunami watch has been issued and lifted after.

CHINA: China has forecast heavy snow and blizzards across its industrial and agricultural heartland over the next three days. At least 129 people have died. Transport is in chaos and cut off power and water appeared. Severe weather damaged millions of hectares of crops and killed more than 70 million animals. Snow and sleet would hit six provinces spanning China's central, eastern and northern regions. Blizzards were also expected in the northwestern part of central Hubei province, already plagued by winter storms earlier this month.

MADAGASCAR: Nearly 145,000 people have been left homeless by a cyclone that tore through Madagascar, killing 44 people. Cyclone Ivan struck the island's east coast last Sunday, and was followed by torrential rains which caused flooding. Winds gusting at more than 230km/h caused widespread damage. Infectious diseases such as diarrhoea are reported to be on the rise. The cyclone season is not expected to end until April, so the government has warned that further storms could follow.

ECUADOR: Persistent rains and floods have left Ecuador in a state of disaster as concern aver food shortages grows. Rains and swollen rivers have caused flooding in 13 of the country's 24 provinces, destroying homes, crops and infrastructure. At least 300,000 people have been affected, including 20,000 evacuated. 110,000 hectares of crops, including rice, coffee, corn, banana, cacao and sugar cane have been destroyed. A national emergency has been declared. EU MIC is monitoring the situation.

MARITIME NOTES:

Lack of talent blamed for shipping accidents
By Nadim Kawach on Sunday, February 24 , 2008

Shipping accidents have increased sharply worldwide over the past few years because of the introduction of complex systems and a lack of experienced crew abroad vessels, according to a specialised organisation.

The surge in accidents has boosted business at shipping yards and consequently pushed up the cost of vessel repair and maintenance, the Singapore-based DNV company said in a report sent to Emirates Business.

“Updated figures for 2007 show that the losses from navigational accidents within the shipping industry are continuing to increase. This trend was also confirmed by the insurance industry. Premiums may increase by as much as 30 per cent in 2008,” DNV said in the report, presented at a shipping conference yesterday.

“DNV monitors the frequency of serious accidents. Over the past five years, there has been an increasing incidence of serious navigational accidents in several shipping segments. This increase is confirmed by many insurance companies such as Skuld, Norwegian Hull Club and The Swedish Club,” said DNV, which covers a wide range of services including classification, certification, consulting, training, asset operations, verification, laboratory testing and technology qualification.

In addition to the increasing frequency of navigational accidents, the cost of each repair caused is rising.

The yards are overbooked, making it hard to find a repair slot, resulting in increased prices for firms. Collisions, groundings and contacts now account for 60 per cent of the most expensive accidents.

The report quoted Torkel Soma, principal safety consultant at DNV Maritime, as saying: “DNV’s statistics show a ship is twice as likely to be involved in a serious grounding, collision or contact accident today compared to only five years ago. In addition, estimates show the cost of these accidents has doubled. Since this is the general trend for the international commercial fleet, the maritime industry needs to act on this immediately.”

According to the report, the boom in the shipping market and increased deliveries of new ships have resulted in pressure on crews.

It says the shortage of officers has resulted in lower retention and faster promotion, adding that as a result, the general level of experience is decreasing on board. At the same time new technical solutions have also been introduced, which might have increased the complexity of operations.

“Reliable technology and complying manuals are no assurance against making errors. Collisions, groundings and contact accidents do almost always involve human acts,” Soma says.

Helge Kjeøy, regional manager DNV Maritime South East Asia, said: “The main factor explaining the negative developments over the past few years is the undersupply of crew worldwide. This results in reduced experience and the high commercial pressure results in high workload. Adding new and more complex equipment does not only help the situation. Avoiding accidents under such situations requires a good safety culture, something which the maritime industry evidently needs to focus more on.”

The experience of leading shipping companies shows the focus has to be turned more in the direction of human elements and organisational factors, including all those involved – from the directors of the company to the officers on the bridge.

Soma adds: “Safety improvements with reduced accident frequency have been achieved through a structured approach addressing behaviour and culture. For the industry to maintain its traditionally good track record, the resilience of operations has to be addressed on a larger scale.”

THE DNV REPORT

2008-02-20

Expensive safety hangover in the shipping industry

Singapore: Updated figures for 2007 show that the losses from navigational accident within the shipping industry are continuing to increase.

RS